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At least 145 records · Page 8

The one hundredth year of Rudolf Wolf's death: Do we have the correct reconstruction of solar activity?

In the one hundred years since Wolf died, little effort has gone into research to see if improved reconstructions of sunspot numbers can be made. We have gathered more than 349,000 observations of daily sunspot group counts from more than 350 observers active from 1610 to 1993. Based upon group counts alone, it is possible to make an objective and homogeneous reconstruction of sunspot numbers. From our study, it appears that the Sun has steadily increased in activity since 1700 with the exception of a brief decrease in the Dalton Minimum (1795-1823). The significant results here are the greater depth of the Dalton Minimum, the generally lower activity throughout the 1700's, and the gradual rise in activity from the Maunder Minimum to the present day. This solar activity reconstruction is quite similar to those Wolf published before 1868 rather than the revised Wolf reconstructions after 1873 which used geomagnetic fluctuations.

Hoyt, Douglas V.↗

3-D Reconstruction of Macular Type II Cell Innervation Patterns in Space-Flight and Control Rats

A semiautomated method for reconstructing objects from serial thin sections has been developed in the Biocomputation Center. The method is being used to completely, for the first time, type II hair cells and their innervations. The purposes are to learn more about the fundamental circuitry of the macula on Earth and to determine whether changes in connectivities occur under space flight conditions. Data captured directly from a transmission electron microscope via a video camera are sent to a graphics workstation. There, the digitized micrographs are mosaicked into sections and contours are traced, registered and displayed by semiautomated methods. Current reconstructions are of type II cells from the medial part of rat maculas collected in-flight on the Space Life Sciences-2 mission, 4.5 hrs post-flight, and from a ground control. Results show that typical type II cells receive processes from tip to six nearby calyces or afferents. Nearly all processes are elongated and have bouton-like enlargements; some have numerous vesicles. Multiple (2 to 4) processes from a single calyx to a type II cell are common, and approximately 1/3 of the processes innervale 2 or 3 type II cells or a neighboring cluster. From 2% to 6% of the cells resemble type I cells morphologically but have demi-calyces. Thus far, increments in synaptic number in type II cells of flight rats are prominent along processes that supply two hair cells. It is clear that reconstruction methods provide insights into details of macular circuitry not obtainable by other techniques. The results demonstrate a morphological basis for interactions between adjacent receptive fields through feed back-feed forward connections, and for dynamic alterations in receptive field range and activity during preprocessing of linear acceleratory information by the maculas. The reconstruction method we have developed will find further applications in the study of the details of neuronal architecture of more complex systems, to seek out shared organizational properties or neuronal networks and to understand better localization of synaptic changes in altered environments.

Ross, Muriel Dorothy↗

Importance of mitral valve repair associated with left ventricular reconstruction for patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy: a real-time three-dimensional echocardiographic study

BACKGROUND: Left ventricular (LV) reconstruction surgery leads to early improvement in LV function in ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM) patients. This study was designed to evaluate the impact of mitral valve (MV) repair associated with LV reconstruction on LV function 1-year after surgery in ICM patients assessed by real-time 3-dimensional echocardiography (3DE). METHODS AND RESULTS: Sixty ICM patients who underwent the combination surgery (LV reconstruction in 60, MV repair in 30, and revascularization in 52 patients) were studied. Real-time 3DE was performed and LV volumes were obtained at baseline, discharge, 6-month and >or=12-month follow-up. Reduction in end-diastolic volumes (EDV) by 29% and in end-systolic volumes by 38% were demonstrated immediately after surgery and remained at subsequent follow-up (P<0.0001). The LV ejection fraction significantly increased by about 10% at discharge and was maintained >or=12-month (P<0.0001). Although the LV volumes were significantly larger in patients with MV repair before surgery (EDV, 235+/-87 mL versus 193+/-67 mL, P<0.05), they were similar to LV volumes of the patients without MV repair at subsequent follow-ups. However, the EDV increased from 139+/-24 mL to 227+/-79 mL (P<0.01) in 7 patients with recurrent mitral regurgitation (MR). Improvement in New York Heart Association functional class occurred in 81% patients during late follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Real-time 3DE demonstrates that LV reconstruction provides significant reduction in LV volumes and improvement in LV function which is sustained throughout the 1-year follow-up with 84% cardiac event free survival. If successful, MV repair may prevent LV redilation, while recurrent MR is associated with increased LV volumes.

Clinical Trial↗

Hyper-X Post-Flight Trajectory Reconstruction

This paper discusses the formulation and development of a trajectory reconstruction tool for the NASA X{43A/Hyper{X high speed research vehicle, and its implementation for the reconstruction and analysis of ight test data. Extended Kalman ltering techniques are employed to reconstruct the trajectory of the vehicle, based upon numerical integration of inertial measurement data along with redundant measurements of the vehicle state. The equations of motion are formulated in order to include the effects of several systematic error sources, whose values may also be estimated by the ltering routines. Additionally, smoothing algorithms have been implemented in which the nal value of the state (or an augmented state that includes other systematic error parameters to be estimated) and covariance are propagated back to the initial time to generate the best-estimated trajectory, based upon all available data. The methods are applied to the problem of reconstructing the trajectory of the Hyper-X vehicle from ight data.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

Mineral and organic matrix interaction in normally calcifying tendon visualized in three dimensions by high-voltage electron microscopic tomography and graphic image reconstruction

To define the ultrastructural accommodation of mineral crystals by collagen fibrils and other organic matrix components during vertebrate calcification, electron microscopic 3-D reconstructions were generated from the normally mineralizing leg tendons from the domestic turkey, Meleagris gallopavo. Embedded specimens containing initial collagen mineralizing sites were cut into 0.5-micron-thick sections and viewed and photographed at 1.0 MV in the Albany AEI-EM7 high-voltage electron microscope. Tomographic 3-D reconstructions were computed from a 2 degree tilt series of micrographs taken over a minimum angular range of +/- 60 degrees. Reconstructions of longitudinal tendon profiles confirm the presence of irregularly shaped mineral platelets, whose crystallographic c-axes are oriented generally parallel to one another and directed along the collagen long axes. The reconstructions also corroborate observations of a variable crystal length (up to 170 nm measured along crystallographic c-axes), the presence of crystals initially in either the hole or overlap zones of collagen, and crystal growth in the c-axis direction beyond these zones into adjacent overlap and other hole regions. Tomography shows for the first time that crystal width varies (30-45 nm) but crystal thickness is uniform (approximately 4-6 nm at the resolution limit of tomography); more crystals are located in the collagen hole zones than in the overlap regions at the earliest stages of tendon mineralization; the crystallographic c-axes of the platelets lie within +/- 15-20 degrees of one another rather than being perfectly parallel; adjacent platelets are spatially separated by a minimum of 4.2 +/- 1.0 nm; crystals apparently fuse in coplanar alignment to form larger platelets; development of crystals in width occurs to dimensions beyond single collagen hole zones; and a thin envelope of organic origin may be present along or just beneath the surfaces of individual mineral platelets. Implicit in the results is that the formation of crystals occurs at different sites and times by independent nucleation events in local regions of collagen. These data provide the first direct visual evidence from 3-D imaging describing the size, shape, orientation, and growth of mineral crystals in association with collagen of a normally mineralizing vertebrate tissue. They support concepts that c-axial crystal growth is unhindered by collage hole zone dimensions, that crystals are organized in the tendon in a series of generally parallel platelets, and that crystal growth in width across collagen fibrils may follow channels or grooves formed by adjacent hole zones in register.

Non-NASA Center↗

Hyper-X Mach 10 Trajectory Reconstruction

This paper discusses the formulation and development of a trajectory reconstruction tool for the NASA X-43A/Hyper-X high speed research vehicle, and its implementation for the reconstruction and analysis of flight test data. Extended Kalman filtering techniques are employed to reconstruct the trajectory of the vehicle, based upon numerical integration of inertial measurement data along with redundant measurements of the vehicle state. The equations of motion are formulated in order to include the effects of several systematic error sources, whose values may also be estimated by the filtering routines. Additionally, smoothing algorithms have been implemented in which the final value of the state (or an augmented state that includes other systematic error parameters to be estimated) and covariance are propagated back to the initial time to generate the best-estimated trajectory, based upon all available data. The methods are applied to the problem of reconstructing the trajectory of the Hyper-X vehicle from data obtained during the Mach 10 test flight, which occurred on November 16th 2004.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

Updates to Multi-Dimensional Flux Reconstruction for Hypersonic Simulations on Tetrahedral Grids

The quality of simulated hypersonic stagnation region heating with tetrahedral meshes is investigated by using an updated three-dimensional, upwind reconstruction algorithm for the inviscid flux vector. An earlier implementation of this algorithm provided improved symmetry characteristics on tetrahedral grids compared to conventional reconstruction methods. The original formulation however displayed quantitative differences in heating and shear that were as large as 25% compared to a benchmark, structured-grid solution. The primary cause of this discrepancy is found to be an inherent inconsistency in the formulation of the flux limiter. The inconsistency is removed by employing a Green-Gauss formulation of primitive gradients at nodes to replace the previous Gram-Schmidt algorithm. Current results are now in good agreement with benchmark solutions for two challenge problems: (1) hypersonic flow over a three-dimensional cylindrical section with special attention to the uniformity of the solution in the spanwise direction and (2) hypersonic flow over a three-dimensional sphere. The tetrahedral cells used in the simulation are derived from a structured grid where cell faces are bisected across the diagonal resulting in a consistent pattern of diagonals running in a biased direction across the otherwise symmetric domain. This grid is known to accentuate problems in both shock capturing and stagnation region heating encountered with conventional, quasi-one-dimensional inviscid flux reconstruction algorithms. Therefore the test problems provide a sensitive indicator for algorithmic effects on heating. Additional simulations on a sharp, double cone and the shuttle orbiter are then presented to demonstrate the capabilities of the new algorithm on more geometrically complex flows with tetrahedral grids. These results provide the first indication that pure tetrahedral elements utilizing the updated, three-dimensional, upwind reconstruction algorithm may be used for the simulation of heating and shear in hypersonic flows in upwind, finite volume formulations.

Gnoffo, Peter A.↗

IRVE-II Post-Flight Trajectory Reconstruction

NASA s Inflatable Re-entry Vehicle Experiment (IRVE) II successfully demonstrated an inflatable aerodynamic decelerator after being launched aboard a sounding rocket from Wallops Flight Facility (WFF). Preliminary day of flight data compared well with pre-flight Monte Carlo analysis, and a more complete trajectory reconstruction performed with an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) approach followed. The reconstructed trajectory and comparisons to an attitude solution provided by NASA Sounding Rocket Operations Contract (NSROC) personnel at WFF are presented. Additional comparisons are made between the reconstructed trajectory and pre and post-flight Monte Carlo trajectory predictions. Alternative observations of the trajectory are summarized which leverage flight accelerometer measurements, the pre-flight aerodynamic database, and on-board flight video. Finally, analysis of the payload separation and aeroshell deployment events are presented. The flight trajectory is reconstructed to fidelity sufficient to assess overall project objectives related to flight dynamics and overall, IRVE-II flight dynamics are in line with expectations

O'Keefe, Stephen A.↗

High Resolution Image Reconstruction from Projection of Low Resolution Images DIffering in Subpixel Shifts

In this paper, we demonstrate a simple algorithm that projects low resolution (LR) images differing in subpixel shifts on a high resolution (HR) also called super resolution (SR) grid. The algorithm is very effective in accuracy as well as time efficiency. A number of spatial interpolation techniques using nearest neighbor, inverse-distance weighted averages, Radial Basis Functions (RBF) etc. used in projection yield comparable results. For best accuracy of reconstructing SR image by a factor of two requires four LR images differing in four independent subpixel shifts. The algorithm has two steps: i) registration of low resolution images and (ii) shifting the low resolution images to align with reference image and projecting them on high resolution grid based on the shifts of each low resolution image using different interpolation techniques. Experiments are conducted by simulating low resolution images by subpixel shifts and subsampling of original high resolution image and the reconstructing the high resolution images from the simulated low resolution images. The results of accuracy of reconstruction are compared by using mean squared error measure between original high resolution image and reconstructed image. The algorithm was tested on remote sensing images and found to outperform previously proposed techniques such as Iterative Back Projection algorithm (IBP), Maximum Likelihood (ML), and Maximum a posterior (MAP) algorithms. The algorithm is robust and is not overly sensitive to the registration inaccuracies.

Decoupled Method for Reconstruction of Surface Conditions From Internal Temperatures On Ablative Materials With Uncertain Recession Model

Obtaining measurements of flight environments on ablative heat shields is both critical for spacecraft development and extremely challenging due to the harsh heating environment and surface recession. Thermocouples installed several millimeters below the surface are commonly used to measure the heat shield temperature response, but an ill-posed inverse heat conduction problem must be solved to reconstruct the surface heating environment from these measurements. Ablation can contribute substantially to the measurement response making solutions to the inverse problem strongly dependent on the recession model, which is often poorly characterized. To enable efficient surface reconstruction for recession model sensitivity analysis, a method for decoupling the surface recession evaluation from the inverse heat conduction problem is presented. The decoupled method is shown to provide reconstructions of equivalent accuracy to the traditional coupled method but with substantially reduced computational effort. These methods are applied to reconstruct the environments on the Mars Science Laboratory heat shield using diffusion limit and kinetically limited recession models.

Oliver, A. Brandon↗

A Reconstruction of Global Hydroclimate and Dynamical Variables Over the Common Era

Hydroclimate extremes critically affect human and natural systems, but there remain many unanswered questions about their causes and how to interpret their dynamics in the past and in climate change projections. These uncertainties are due, in part, to the lack of long-term, spatially resolved hydroclimate reconstructions and information on the underlying physical drivers for many regions. Here we present the first global reconstructions of hydroclimate and associated climate dynamical variables over the past two thousand years. We use a data assimilation approach tailored to reconstruct hydroclimate that optimally combines 2,978 paleoclimate proxy-data time series with the physical constraints of an atmosphere?ocean climate model. The global reconstructions are annually or seasonally resolved and include two spatiotemporal drought indices, near-surface air temperature, an index of North Atlantic variability, the location of the intertropical convergence zone, and monthly Nino indices. This database, called the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), will provide a critical new platform for investigating the causes of past climate variability and extremes, while informing interpretations of future hydroclimate projections.

Natural hazards↗

Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation Using Reconstructed Turbulence Measurements

A classical method for reconstructing atmospheric turbulence from onboard measurements of airdata and inertial sensors was improved. The reconstructed turbulence was included in a system identification analysis to estimate nondimensional stability and control derivatives in a longitudinal short period model using the maximum likelihood equation-error method with Fourier transform data. Practical aspects of the approach are discussed, such as reconstruction accuracy, data collinearity, model structure, and real-time estimation. Results using simulation and flight test data for a subscale airplane indicated that accurate turbulence reconstructions and parameter estimates could be obtained from maneuvering flight in high levels of turbulence.

Jared A Grauer↗

Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation Using Reconstructed Turbulence Measurements

A classical method for reconstructing atmospheric turbulence from onboard measurements of airdata and inertial sensors was improved and implemented for real-time computation. The reconstructed turbulence measurements were then included in a system identification analysis to estimate nondimensional stability and control derivatives in a longitudinal short period model using the maximum likelihood equation-error method in the frequency domain with Fourier-transform data. Flight test results using a subscale transport-type airplane showed that the power spectra for the reconstructed vertical gusts resembled the von Kármán turbulence model. Flight data in moderate and severe turbulence exhibited a decorrelation of the modeling data that increased the accuracy of parameter estimation results using the reconstructed turbulence. In particular, pitch rate and angle-of-attack rate derivatives could both be identified from flight data about straight and level flight without special maneuvers or prior information.

Jared A Grauer↗

FUMES. II. Ly α Reconstructions of Young, Active M Dwarfs

The H I Ly α (1215.67 Å) emission line dominates the far-UV spectra of M dwarf stars, but strong absorption from neutral hydrogen in the interstellar medium makes observing Ly α challenging even for the closest stars. As part of the Far-Ultraviolet M-dwarf Evolution Survey, the Hubble Space Telescope has observed 10 early-to-mid M dwarfs with ages ranging from ∼24 Myr to several Gyr in order to evaluate how the incident UV radiation evolves through the lifetime of exoplanetary systems. We reconstruct the intrinsic Ly α profiles from STIS G140L and E140M spectra, and achieve reconstructed fluxes with 1σ uncertainties ranging from 5% to a factor of two for the low-resolution spectra (G140L) and 3%–20% for the high-resolution spectra (E140M). We observe broad, 500–1000 km s −1 wings of the Ly α line profile, and analyze how the line width depends on stellar properties. We find that stellar effective temperature and surface gravity are the dominant factors influencing the line width with little impact from the star's magnetic activity level, and that the surface flux density of the Ly α wings may be used to estimate the chromospheric electron density. The Ly α reconstructions on the G140L spectra are the first attempted on λ/Δλ ∼ 1000 data. We find that the reconstruction precision is not correlated with the signal-to-noise ratio of the observation—rather, it depends on the intrinsic broadness of the stellar Ly α line. Young, low-gravity stars have the broadest lines and therefore provide more information at low spectral resolution to the fit to break degeneracies among model parameters.

Allison Youngblood↗

Variance Decomposition of MEDLI2 Reconstructed Heating Using Neural Networks

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected data during entry of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover into Mars’ atmosphere. This suite included a network of MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs (MISPs). Each MISP was comprised of a cylinder made of Thermal Protection System (TPS) material with 1-3 embedded thermocouples (TCs), and it was flush mounted into the heatshield or backshell. Data from these in-depth TCs were used to reconstruct the aeroheating environment of the vehicle throughout entry. Surface heating was posed as an inverse problem, with the goal of estimating the surface heating by minimizing an objective function of the difference between MISP temperature measurements during flight and the temperature predictions derived from the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal response (FIAT) program. Given an aerothermal environment, FIAT calculates the material response and provides in-depth temperatures throughout the TPS material. To achieve the reverse, an internal tool called FIAT_Opt runs through multiple different environments until the output temperature at the TC depth closely matches the flight data. 95% confidence intervals on the reconstructed surface heating were obtained using Monte Carlo analysis, in which uncertainties in the thermocouple depth and the TPS material properties (e.g., density, thermal conductivity, heat capacity, emissivity) based on flight-lot material testing were included. A variance decomposition method using Sobol indices was employed to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructed peak heating to the TC placement and material property uncertainties. Variance decomposition was found to require tens of thousands of FIAT_Opt runs in order for the Sobol indices to converge. With a single FIAT_Opt run taking on the order of 40 minutes, the required number of computations would take months to complete, even if using multiple CPUs. To mitigate this problem, three machine learning models (ridge regression with cross-validation, random forest regression, and a deep neural network) were trained and tested using the 2000 Monte Carlo runs that were already completed. A subset of 1600 runs were used to train the model (i.e., training set), while the remaining 400 runs were used as the test set. The predictions from the deep neural network (DNN) on the test set showed nearly perfect agreement to the actual values computed with FIAT_Opt (R2 > 0.99). Using the DNN as a surrogate model, the variance decomposition using 50,000 runs was completed within minutes. The resulting Sobol indices showed that the reconstructed peak surface heating was most sensitive to the uncertainties in the thermal conductivity (ST = 0.37) and heat capacity (ST = 0.26). This method can be leveraged to provide requirements for material property measurements needed to improve the accuracy of surface heating prediction and ultimately lead to the reduction of design margins in the future. This presentation will include background on the MEDLI2 suite; the method used for inverse heating estimation; the way that material property uncertainties were accounted for using Monte Carlo analysis; a brief background on variance decomposition; the motivation for using machine learning in this context; how a neural network was trained on the data to enable variance decomposition in a fraction of the time; and the variance decomposition results for one of the MISPs.

Hannah Alpert↗

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived from Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗

Testing Lyα Emission-line Reconstruction Routines at Multiple Velocities in One System

The 1215.67 Å H ו Lyα emission line dominates the ultraviolet flux of low-mass stars, including the majority of known exoplanet hosts. Unfortunately, strong attenuation by the interstellar medium (ISM) obscures the line core in most stars, requiring the intrinsic Lyα flux to be reconstructed based on fits to the line wings. We present a test of the widely used Lyα emission-line reconstruction code ւʏᴀᴘʏ using phase-resolved, medium-resolution STIS G140M observations of the close white dwarf–M dwarf binary EG UMa. The Doppler shifts induced by the binary orbital motion move the Lyα emission line in and out of the region of strong ISM attenuation. Reconstructions of each spectrum should produce the same Lyα profile regardless of phase, under the well-justified assumption that there is no intrinsic line variability between observations. Instead, we find that the reconstructions underestimate the Lyα flux by almost a factor of 2 for the lowest velocity, most attenuated spectrum, due to a degeneracy between the intrinsic Lyα and ISM profiles. Our results imply that many stellar Lyα fluxes derived from G140M spectra reported in the literature may be underestimated, with potential consequences for, for example, estimates of extreme-ultraviolet stellar spectra and ultraviolet inputs into simulations of exoplanet atmospheres.

M dwarf stars↗

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived From Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗