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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Framework development for a SAVY-4000 nuclear material storage container structural integrity surveillance tool

Here, this work presents the preliminary design of an automated surveillance tool to assess the health of SAVY-4000 nuclear material storage containers. This tool is designed by training several machine learning (ML) regression models to predict maximum residual stress in plain dents on the container sidewall. The model is trained on an experimentally validated Finite Element Analysis (FEA) model built in Abaqus FEA. The accuracy of each ML model is compared. The potential for application as well as model shortcomings are assessed. Necessary FEA model improvements are outlined and the various ML models are proposed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A robust approach to Gaussian process implementation

Abstract. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a flexible modeling technique used to predict outputs and to capture uncertainty in the predictions. However, the GP regression process becomes computationally intensive when the training spatial dataset has a large number of observations. To address this challenge, we introduce a scalable GP algorithm, termed MuyGPs, which incorporates nearest-neighbor and leave-one-out cross-validation during training. This approach enables the evaluation of large spatial datasets with state-of-the-art accuracy and speed in certain spatial problems. Despite these advantages, conventional quadratic loss functions used in the MuyGPs optimization, such as root mean squared error (RMSE), are highly influenced by outliers. We explore the behavior of MuyGPs in cases involving outlying observations and, subsequently, develop a robust approach to handle and mitigate their impact. Specifically, we introduce a novel leave-one-out loss function based on the pseudo-Huber function (LOOPH) that effectively accounts for outliers in large spatial datasets within the MuyGPs framework. Our simulation study shows that the LOOPH loss method maintains accuracy despite outlying observations, establishing MuyGPs as a powerful tool for mitigating unusual observation impacts in the large data regime. In the analysis of US ozone data, MuyGPs provides accurate predictions and uncertainty quantification, demonstrating its utility in managing data anomalies. Through these efforts, we advance the understanding of GP regression in spatial contexts.

Mukangango, Juliette↗
DOE OSTI2025

EVALUATION OF HRA METHODOLOGIES FOR APPLICATION IN SDP WORK

This study critically evaluates human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies applicable to regulatory probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model, with a particular focus on their role in supporting the significance determination process (SDP) in nuclear safety assessment. Firstly, three widely utilized HRA methods – IDHEAS-ECA, SPAR-H, and ASEP/THERP – were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. Qualitative assessments were conducted using attributes from the NEA/CSNI/R(2015)1 report, while quantitative evaluations employed regression and correlation analyses to compare predicted human error probabilities (HEPs) against empirical data. Results reveal distinct strengths, for example, IDHEAS-ECA’s robust predictive accuracy and K-HRA’s alignment with operational practices. In addition, dependency analysis and recovery analysis were critically evaluated. For dependency analysis, the methods’ handling of inter-task dependencies and their impact on HEPs were examined, while recovery analysis highlighted strategies for mitigating failure events. Furthermore, strategies were proposed to evaluate performance-shaping factors under conditions of reduced human performance, such as stress, fatigue, or cognitive overload, addressing specific challenges faced in SDP evaluations. Human errors from KINS’s operational performance information system event reports were evaluated as a case study. This study identifies gaps and provides actionable insights to ensure their validity and applicability in SDP HRA applications. This paper is a part of research conducted by KINS, and it should be noted that this result does not represent the regulatory position of KINS.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parallel sorting algorithm classification: is manual instrumentation necessary?

Understanding parallel algorithms is crucial for accelerating scientific simulations on complex, distributed memory, high-performance computers. Modern algorithm classification approaches learn semantics directly from source code to differentiate between algorithms, however, accessing source code is not always possible. We can learn about parallel algorithms from observing their performance, as programs running the same algorithms and using the same hardware should exhibit similar performance characteristics. We present an approach to learn algorithm classes from parallel performance data directly in order to classify algorithms without access to the source code. We extend previous work to enable classifying parallel sorting algorithms using automatic instrumentation instead of requiring manual region annotations in the source code. In this work, we design and demonstrate a study for classification of parallel sorting algorithms using parallel performance data collected from automatic instrumentation, and evaluate the performance of our new methodology on classification. We leverage Caliper to collect the performance data, Thicket for our exploratory data analysis (EDA), and PyTorch and Scikit-learn to evaluate the effectiveness of random forests, support vector machines (SVMs), decision trees, neural networks, and logistic regressions on parallel performance data. Additionally, we study noise in parallel performance data, whether the removal of noise and pre-processing of the data is necessary to accurately classify parallel sorting algorithms, and determine the effectiveness of features created from performance data. In conclusion, we demonstrate classification accuracy for these five different models of up to 97.7% across four different parallel algorithm classes.

Algorithm Classification↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning inversion from small-angle scattering for charged polymers

We develop Monte Carlo simulations for uniformly charged polymers and a machine learning algorithm to interpret the intra-polymer structure factor of the charged polymer system, which can be obtained from small-angle scattering experiments. The polymer is modeled as a chain of fixed-length bonds, where the connected bonds are subject to bending energy, and there is also a screened Coulomb potential for charge interaction between all joints. The bending energy is determined by the intrinsic bending stiffness, and the charge interaction depends on the interaction strength and screening length. All three contribute to the stiffness of the polymer chain and lead to longer and larger polymer conformations. The screening length also introduces a second length scale for the polymer besides the bending persistence length. To obtain the inverse mapping from the structure factor to these polymer conformation and energy-related parameters, we generate a large data set of structure factors by running simulations for a wide range of polymer energy parameters. We use principal component analysis to investigate the intra-polymer structure factors and determine the feasibility of the inversion using the nearest neighbor distance. We employ Gaussian process regression to achieve the inverse mapping and extract the characteristic parameters of polymers from the structure factor with low relative error.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remote sensing of Pu in uranyl nitrate crystals using reflectance spectroscopy and chemometrics

Remote quantification of Pu(VI) (0–5 mol%) co-crystallized with U in uranyl nitrate hexahydrate (UNH) crystals was achieved in a glove box using reflectance spectroscopy coupled with chemometric modeling. Reflectance spectra were also acquired for Pu(IV) and Np(VI) (0–5 mol%) crystallized with UNH; revealing spectral features consistent with their solution-phase analogs. Principal component analysis revealed Pu(IV/VI) and Np(VI) concentrations as the primary source of variation in the data, informing the development of a supervised partial least squares regression model for Pu(VI). The resulting calibration demonstrated robust performance, with replicate root mean square errors near 10% and quantifiable limits near 0.2 mol% Pu(VI) relative to U. The Pu(VI) remained stable in the crystalline UNH matrix for at least one week with minimal reduction to Pu(IV). Notably, Pu(VI) and Np(VI) incorporation in UNH quenched U(VI) fluorescence while Pu(IV) did not. This study presents a noninvasive, spectroscopic approach for solid-state Pu quantification, with direct implications for material accountability and nuclear nonproliferation monitoring.

Sadergaski, Luke R. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling ethanol/water adsorption in all-silica zeolites using the real adsorbed solution theory

A comprehensive set of single-component and binary isotherms were collected for ethanol/water adsorption into the siliceous forms of 185 known zeolites using grand-canonical Monte Carlo simulations. Using these data, a systematic analysis of ideal/real adsorbed-solution theory (IAST/RAST) was conducted and activity coefficients were derived for ethanol/water mixtures adsorbed in different zeolites based on RAST. It was found that activity coefficients of ethanol are close to unity while activity coefficients of water are larger in most zeolites, indicating a positive excess free energy of the mixture. This observation can be attributed to water/ethanol interactions being less favorable than water/water interactions in the single-component adsorption of water at comparable loadings. The deviation from ideal behavior can be highly structure-dependent but no clear correlation with pore diameters was identified. Furthermore, our analysis also demonstrates the following: (1) accurate unary isotherms in the low-loading regime are critical for obtaining physically sensible activity coefficients; (2) the global regression scheme to solve for activity model parameters performs better than fitting activity models to activity coefficients calculated locally at each binary state point; and (3) including the dependence on adsorption potential offers only a minor benefit for describing binary adsorption at the lowest fugacities. Finally, the Margules activity model was found incapable of capturing the non-ideal adsorption behavior over the entire range of fugacities and compositions in all zeolites, but for conditions typical of solution-phase adsorption, RAST predictions using zeolite-specific or even bulk Margules parameters provide an improved description compared to IAST.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Refining T c Prediction in Hydrides via Symbolic‐Regression‐Enhanced Electron‐Localization‐Function‐Based Descriptors

Hydrogen‐based materials are able to possess extremely high superconducting critical temperatures, T c s , due to hydrogen's low atomic mass and strong electron–phonon interaction. Recently, a descriptor based on the Electron Localization Function (ELF) has enabled the rapid estimation of the T c of hydrogen‐containing compounds from electronic networking properties, but its applicability has been limited by the small size and homogeneity of the training dataset used. Herein, the model is re‐examined, compiling a publicly available combined dataset of 244 binary and ternary hydride superconductors. The analysis shows that though ELF‐based networking remains a valuable descriptor, its predictive power declines with increasing compositional complexity. However, by introducing the molecularity index, defined as the highest value of the ELF at which two hydrogen atoms connect, and applying symbolic regression, the accuracy of the predictions can be substantially enhanced. These results establish a more robust framework for assessing superconductivity in hydride materials, facilitating accelerated screening of novel candidates through integration with crystal structure prediction methods or high‐throughput searches.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monitoring Sulfuric Acid and Temperature Using Raman Spectroscopy and Multivariate Chemometrics

Multivariate regression models were optimized for the quantification of sulfuric acid (H 2 SO 4 ) [0–8 M] and temperature (20 °C–80 °C) in the presence of ammonium sulfate ((NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 [0–0.6 M]) using Raman spectroscopy. Optical vibrational spectroscopy is a useful nondestructive technique for the in situ analysis of complex chemical systems notoriously difficult to monitor in situ and in real-time. Multivariate analysis, a chemometrics method, can be paired with these nondestructive optical methods for determining analyte concentration and speciation in complex solutions, such as dissociated species in polyprotic acids, e.g., H 2 SO 4 . The effect of temperature is often overlooked although it can have a major influence on speciation and the corresponding Raman spectra. Here, in this study, partial least squares regression models were optimized for the quantification of H 2 SO 4 and its two deprotonated forms as a function of temperature. Measuring bisulfate as a function of temperature is particularly challenging owing to changes in the second dissociation constant. A designed training set effectively minimized the sample set size and trained a robust predictive model with percent root mean square error of <3% for H 2 SO 4 . The practical strategy employed here was demonstrated to be effective for building chemometric models that directly account for dynamic temperatures with static samples and is shown to be amenable to flow cell analysis applications with a simple calibration transfer for process monitoring applications.

D-optimal design↗
DOE OSTI2024

Object-oriented analysis as a foundation for building climate storylines of compounding short-term drought and crop heat stress

Introduction: Crops are vulnerable to precipitation and heat extremes during late spring through summer. Methods: We analyzed for a north-central U.S. region short-term drought and agricultural heat stress during April-May-June-July. We used the 4-km Parameter Elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) for observations, aggregated to a 25-km grid, and two 25-km Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) simulns used either GFDL- or MPI-GCM boundary conditions. We chose 1981-2000 as our contemporary time period, and 2041- 2060 as our scenario time period, which used the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenario. We used object-oriented analysis to identify events of interest in observations and simulations by identifying objects in a space-time domain that meet specified criteria, such as exceeding a heat-stress temperature threshold. The event diagnosis allowed analysis of compound events, occurring when temperature and drought objects overlap. Results: Identified objects yielded events that can undermine agricultural productivity and which are thus relevant to decision makers, making them building blocks for possible climate storylines. The observations and simulations showed similar spatial distributions of event frequencies across the analysis region. However, the simulations attained this distribution by having fewer events that tend to cover larger areas compared to observed events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations was coarser than their 25-km grids. Short-term drought frequency increased and heat-stress frequency decreased in transitioning to the scenario climate. When compounding occurred heat-stress events generally preceded the short-term drought events. The overlapping, compound events tended to be more extreme compared to non-overlapping events of either type. Discussion: The information yielded projected changes in these agriculturally motivated events. One prominent conditional behavior emerging from the work was that a heat-stress event should be a warning to watch for potential drought, as both could compound each other to more intense levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flexibility of oxygen sublattice and hydrogen bond length predict proton mobility in ternary metal oxides

Discovery of fast proton conductors is important for advancing clean energy technologies. This requires a better understanding of proton migration mechanisms. While structural and chemical traits of ternary metal oxides have been related to proton migration barriers, lattice dynamical effects have not been resolved quantitatively. Here, in this work, we introduce a phonon-based dynamic descriptor, termed ‘‘thermal O…O fluctuation,’’ quantifying the flexibility of donor-acceptor oxide-ion pairs. This enables direct comparison of O-sublattice flexibility across diverse metal oxides. Using regression models, we ranked physical descriptors as predictors of proton mobility, finding that H-bond length and thermal O…O fluctuation were the strongest descriptors. Further analysis revealed a critical O…O spacing of 2.4 A˚ at the transition state, which is easier to reach by more flexible donor-acceptor pairs, enabling facile proton transfer. Our results demonstrate oxygen sublattice flexibility as a dynamic descriptor and provide guiding principles for enhancing proton mobility in ternary metal oxides.

diffusivity↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying Temperature Dependence of Pu(IV) Absorbance Spectra for Advanced Online Monitoring of Nuclear Processes

This article presents a systematic study of Pu(IV) absorbance spectral features as a function of temperature to develop an understanding of this parameter’s effect on chemometric models that can be used as online monitoring tools to support nuclear processing. The descriptive and predictive models that provide real-time feedback of these processes are usually constructed with data collected in conditions typical of a laboratory environment, which can differ drastically from a processing environment. To assess the impact of temperature on Pu(IV) absorbance spectra, 11 samples of Pu(IV) were synthesized with varying HNO 3 concentrations ranging from 0.6 to 9.5 M and heated between 15 and 45 °C. Ultraviolet (UV)–visible (vis)–near-infrared (NIR) absorption spectra collected at different HNO 3 concentrations and temperatures revealed that features associated with Pu(IV) are sensitive to temperature at all HNO 3 concentrations and that changes in features depend on HNO 3 concentration. The contributions of temperature and HNO 3 concentration to variation in Pu(IV) spectral features were evaluated using the principal component analysis of spectra that were baseline-corrected with an asymmetric least-squares method. Furthermore, predictive modeling for HNO 3 concentration with partial least-squares regression of UV–vis–NIR spectra highlighted the importance of accounting for temperature in the calibration set to optimize model performance. This methodology constitutes a new, systematic approach to account for the effect of temperature on the absorption spectra of metal ions and is useful for process monitoring applications in many industries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Importance of Being Adaptable: An Exploration of the Power and Limitations of Domain Adaptation for Simulation-Based Inference with Galaxy Clusters

The application of deep machine learning methods in astronomy has exploded in the last decade, with new models showing remarkably improved performance on benchmark tasks. Not nearly enough attention is given to understanding the models' robustness, especially when the test data are systematically different from the training data, or "out of domain." Domain shift poses a significant challenge for simulation-based inference, where models are trained on simulated data but applied to real observational data. In this paper, we explore domain shift and test domain adaptation methods for a specific scientific case: simulation-based inference for estimating galaxy cluster masses from X-ray profiles. We build datasets to mimic simulation-based inference: a training set from the Magneticum simulation, a scatter-augmented training set to capture uncertainties in scaling relations, and a test set derived from the IllustrisTNG simulation. We demonstrate that the Test Set is out of domain in subtle ways that would be difficult to detect without careful analysis. We apply three deep learning methods: a standard neural network (NN), a neural network trained on the scatter-augmented input catalogs, and a Deep Reconstruction-Regression Network (DRRN), a semi-supervised deep model engineered to address domain shift. Although the NN improves results by 17% in the Training Data, it performs 40% worse on the out-of-domain Test Set. Surprisingly, the Scatter-Augmented Neural Network (SANN) performs similarly. While the DRRN is successful in mapping the training and Test Data onto the same latent space, it consistently underperforms compared to a straightforward Yx scaling relation. These results serve as a warning that simulation-based inference must be handled with extreme care, as subtle differences between training simulations and observational data can lead to unforeseen biases creeping into the results.

Ntampaka, Michelle [Baltimore, Space Telescope Sci↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information

A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Single-Particle Isotopic Analysis Using the Liquid Sampling-Atmospheric Pressure Glow Discharge Microplasma Coupled to an Orbitrap Mass Spectrometer

Isotope ratio (IR) determinations on individual particles can provide valuable information relative to the sample, including processing and dating, which could be valuable to geological and nuclear material analysis communities. In comparison to “bulk” measurements, in which all particle information is lost and homogenized within a sample, “particle” measurements allow for fingerprinting and can provide unique insights related to the sample’s nano- and micro- compositions. Furthermore, the complex nature of particles, with potential isobaric interferences from either the matrix or other elements within the same particle, poses a significant analytical challenge for conventional mass spectrometry platforms employed for elemental analysis due to their limited mass resolution. Presented here is the first demonstration of an ultrahigh resolution method for single particle (SP) isotopic analysis using the liquid sampling-atmospheric pressure glow discharge (LS-APGD) microplasma ionization source coupled to an Orbitrap mass spectrometer and FTMS Booster X2T acquisition/processing system. For proof of concept, well-characterized CeO 2 microparticles with a nominal diameter of 1.0 μm were analyzed at a mass resolution of ∼330,000. Important instrumental parameters were optimized to enable the detection of single particles. The 142 Ce/ 140 Ce ratio of individual particles and the population average were determined and compared to an SP inductively coupled plasma time-of-flight mass spectrometry (ICP-TOF-MS) analysis. The isotopic accuracy and precision were determined by two methods and found to be in good agreement with the SP-ICP-TOF-MS method, with the linear regression slope method providing a more accurate ratio, showing a ∼1.4% relative difference from the ratio determined from a particle digest. The encouraging performance of the method was further supported by a determined detection limit of 2.9 fg ( 142 Ce). The developed method is anticipated to overcome many of the challenges posed by isobaric interferences encountered in conventional mass spectrometry techniques when analyzing real-world samples for particle isotopic composition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR↗
DOE OSTI2024

Determining the Crosslinking and Degradation Reaction Kinetics in Photovoltaic Encapsulants Using Accelerated Aging: Preprint

Degradation of photovoltaic (PV) module encapsulant mechanical characteristics that lead to embrittlement and delamination remains a cause of failure in solar installations. A multiscale reliability model based on detailed molecular degradation reaction kinetics was previously published, connecting the encapsulant mechanical properties (elastic modulus, yield strength, and adhesion energy) to the degraded molecular structure and interfacial bond density to adjacent solar cell and glass substrates. The model, developed primarily for poly(ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) (EVA) encapsulants, remains to be experimentally validated. Determining the degradation and crosslinking kinetics of alternative encapsulants, such as polyolefin elastomer (POE) and EVA/POE/EVA composites (EPE), can further generalize the model. Importantly, the activation energy for crosslinking of fully cured PV encapsulant products from temperature or UV is presently unknown or unavailable. In this work, we subject EVA, POE, and EPE encapsulants to a set of accelerated aging conditions, varying the temperature, UV intensity, and relative humidity. We use DSC, FTIR, and Soxhlet extraction (gel content) to characterize the encapsulants' changing molecular structure. This allows for determination of the photochemical degradation and crosslinking kinetics of the encapsulants. Preliminary results show an increase in gel content (crosslinking) and a decrease in crystallinity of EVA, POE, and EPE encapsulants under hot-aerobic (90 deg C, 22% RH) and hot-anaerobic (90oC, sealed in N2 air) accelerated aging, even in the absence of UV and crosslinking initiating agents. For a least squares regression with an assumed first-order crosslinking kinetics, the crosslinking rate parameters were computed for the three encapsulants under hot-aerobic and hot-anaerobic aging conditions. FTIR analysis showed insignificant encapsulant degradation for hot-aerobic and hot-anaerobic aging, demonstrating the critical role of UV and moisture in accelerating degradation. Aging conditions with UV exposure and elevated humidity are presently in progress.

adhesion↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Tutorial on Bayesian analysis of linear shock compression data

Gas gun and other shock compression experiments often produce shock wave velocity measurements that are linearly associated with particle velocity. Traditionally, this empirical relationship is quantified with a single Hugoniot curve that is estimated using least squares regression. However, for downstream modeling and simulation tasks, it is often more useful to have multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the data. We employ Bayesian uncertainty quantification methods as a framework for propagating measurement uncertainty through to model parameters and predictions. Specifically, this Tutorial shows how to sample multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the shock wave-particle velocity measurements in a two-step Bayesian approach. First, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution of the linear model parameters using Bayesian linear regression. Second, we propagate samples from the posterior distribution through the Rankine–Hugoniot equations to yield Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane. The procedure is demonstrated with publicly available data on argon, copper, and nickel, and compared against bootstrapping and linear regression. The Bayesian procedure is shown to be interpretable, computationally inexpensive, and less sensitive than an alternative bootstrapping approach to the removal of the point in the copper dataset that has the largest particle velocity. As a Tutorial on Bayesian methodology for the shock compression community, we provide several derivations and explanations that make this paper self-contained, and make all code and data available at github.com/llnl/BALSCD.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗