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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Time Series Data Products to Support ASHRAE’s Historic and Future Climate Data Needs through NASA’s POWER Web Services

To address the data needs for resilience and sustainability of building systems within ASHRAE, the NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project facilitates the use of NASA Earth Science data on a long-term, global scale. Solar data from several NASA projects and meteorological data from NASA assimilation models have been reformatted and disseminated to the public via a user friendly web GIS-enabled based data portal (https://power.larc.nasa.gov) in selectable data formats, immediately amenable to key industry wide decision support tools such as EnergyPlus. Time series of potential climate conditions from downscaled climate simulations are being made available for similar statistics and formats. An emphasis is placed upon obtaining and utilizing time series data to conduct analysis of building system performance for current and planning building systems for energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions. This presentation has the learning following learning objectives for the ASHRAE community: 1) Learn how NASA POWER’s web service suite can provide supplementary solar and surface meteorological data parameters, including a discussion of uncertainty. 2) Learn how downscaled climate scenario information can be provided to evaluate potential future requirements. The presentation is part of a forum entitled, "Weather Data for Large-Scale Building Energy Modeling".

time series↗

NASA NTRS2014

Complexity and Pilot Workload Metrics for the Evaluation of Adaptive Flight Controls on a Full Scale Piloted Aircraft

Flight research has shown the effectiveness of adaptive flight controls for improving aircraft safety and performance in the presence of uncertainties. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA)'s Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) project designed and conducted a series of flight experiments to study the impact of variations in adaptive controller design complexity on performance and handling qualities. A novel complexity metric was devised to compare the degrees of simplicity achieved in three variations of a model reference adaptive controller (MRAC) for NASA's F-18 (McDonnell Douglas, now The Boeing Company, Chicago, Illinois) Full-Scale Advanced Systems Testbed (Gen-2A) aircraft. The complexity measures of these controllers are also compared to that of an earlier MRAC design for NASA's Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) project and flown on a highly modified F-15 aircraft (McDonnell Douglas, now The Boeing Company, Chicago, Illinois). Pilot comments during the IRAC research flights pointed to the importance of workload on handling qualities ratings for failure and damage scenarios. Modifications to existing pilot aggressiveness and duty cycle metrics are presented and applied to the IRAC controllers. Finally, while adaptive controllers may alleviate the effects of failures or damage on an aircraft's handling qualities, they also have the potential to introduce annoying changes to the flight dynamics or to the operation of aircraft systems. A nuisance rating scale is presented for the categorization of nuisance side-effects of adaptive controllers.

pilot workload metrics↗

NASA NTRS2020

Use of Climate Change Projections for Resilience Planning in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

In this study we use three different methodologies to document and compare temperature and precipitation projections for the city of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) over the 21st century. It aims to explore in what way the differences and similarities of those methodologies and their outcomes support the incorporation of climate risks in urban planning and improve effective urban climate change governance. We compared the projections for RJ from the Eta Regional Climate Model from the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research nested in two Hadley Center Global Climate Models (GCMs) (Eta-HadCM3 method and Eta-HadGEM2-ES method) and 33 GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-model dataset (Urban Climate Change Research Network - UCCRN method). The three methods showed increasing temperatures for RJ at the end of the century. Precipitation projections span a 13% decrease to a 12% increase when using the UCCRN method or are reduced between 0.4 and 0.5%, when using the Eta-HadGEM2-ES method. However, the middle range of the projections from UCCRN and Eta-HadGEM2-ES is similar. The three methods project an increase of warm days and nights and a decrease of cold days and nights. Nevertheless, although the directions of change are the same applying the three methods, the magnitude differs when considering warm and cold nights. Hence, city stakeholders are better informed when we apply different projection methods as it gives them the opportunity to consider the level of risk they are willing to bear in the future. We observed that defining climate change projections on the city scale based on clear communication and an interactive process between scientists and stakeholders can be used to inform citywide adaptation strategies and sector-specific uses, as well as promote urban climate risk governance.

urban governance and management↗

NASA NTRS2019

Sensitivity of Maize Yield in Smallholder Systems to Climate Scenarios in Semi-Arid Regions of West Africa: Accounting for Variability in Farm Management Practices

Climate change is estimated to exacerbate existing challenges faced by smallholder farmers in Sub-Sahara Africa. However, limited studies quantify the extent of variation in climate change impact under these systems at the local scale. The Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer (DSSAT) was used to quantify variation in climate change impacts on maize yield under current agricultural practices in semi-arid regions of Senegal (Nioro du Rip) and Ghana (Navrongo and Tamale). Multi-benchmark climate models (Mid-Century, 2040–2069 for two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and multiple soil and management information from agronomic surveys were used as input for DSSAT. The average impact of climate scenarios on grain yield among farms ranged between −9% and −39% across sites. Substantial variation in climate response exists across farms in the same farming zone with relative standard deviations from 8% to 117% at Nioro du Rip, 13% to 64% in Navrongo and 9% to 37% in Tamale across climate models. Variations in fertilizer application, planting dates and soil types explained the variation in the impact among farms. This study provides insight into the complexities of the impact of climate scenarios on maize yield and the need for better representation of heterogeneous farming systems for optimized outcomes in adaptation and resilience planning in smallholder systems.

Freduah, Bright S.↗

NASA NTRS2018

An Analysis of the Role of Safety Nets in the National Airspace System

Safe operations of aircraft in the National Airspace System (NAS) may be attributed to many factors, including the application of a variety of safety nets (SNs) as a last line of defense. In preparation for the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), a review of Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) reports for incidents with positive outcomes was conducted to investigate the importance of current safety nets. The examination of positive outcomes not only shows what went wrong, but also what went right to prevent accidents and “save the day.” More than 400 incident reports for 2015 from the voluntary ASRS reporting database were studied in detail to create event sequence diagrams (ESDs), illustrating the effectiveness of SNs. The developed ESDs are considered top-level, representative models and are limited with respect to being reliably quantitative because they are based on only reports from a single year. The ESDs could offer insights into human systems integration research, such as strategically using technologies as SNs without human interface or alleviating human workload with new technologies to provide resilient recovery from off-nominal conditions ensuring flight safety.

Geuther, Steven↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hail Storm Risk Assessment Using Space-Borne Remote Sensing Observations and Reanalyses

Much of the world is impacted by severe thunderstorms, but whether they become disasters depends upon resilience--our capacity to prepare, mitigate, respond, and recover. Hail is the costliest severe weather hazard for the insurance industry, generating ~70% of severe convective storm losses due to damage to assets such as homes, businesses, agriculture, and infrastructure. Most insurance companies do not reserve enough capital to cover catastrophes, so they acquire reinsurance. The reinsurance industry uses catastrophe models (CatModels) to statistically estimate risk to an insurer’s portfolio. Hail CatModels are developed with climatologies that define hailstorm frequency and severity. Hail-prone areas can be defined using hail reports from trained spotters, the media, and the general public. Extremely severe hail (2+ inch diameter) occurs nearly every day across the world. Weather radars can detect hail because hailstones strongly reflect microwave signals that they emit. However, hail climatologies are difficult to derive because hail covers small areas and there are neither hail reporting mechanisms (e.g. website or mobile app) nor radar networks in most places outside the US and Europe. This lack of ground truth on severe hail puts society and economies at risk. Hail is generated within storms by strong updrafts. These updrafts exhibit unique signatures in NASA and other agency satellite observations, offering new opportunities for hailstorm analysis. Geostationary (GEO) visible and infrared imagery has been collected for ~15-25 years across the world (region dependent) and methods have been developed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to detect hailstorm updrafts using GEO imagery. Climatological GEO updraft data has been used by Willis Towers Watson (WTW), a leader in catastrophe risk assessment for the insurance industry, and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology to develop CatModels over Europe and Australia. Hail can also be inferred with passive microwave imagery collected by low-Earth-orbiting sensors such as the GPM GMI, TRMM TMI, AMSR-E, AMSR-2, SSM/I, and SSMIS over the last 20+ years using methods developed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Hailstorms generate enhanced lightning flash rates that can be tracked using new GOES-R series GEO Lightning Mapping (GLM) imagery. Atmospheric reanalyses can be used to define favorable hailstorm environments for combination with the satellite-based storm detections. This presentation will describe a framework for developing continental to global hail climatologies and CatModels based on NASA satellite data and capabilities. This is a collaboration between LaRC and MSFC, WTW, and partners in Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa. This project seeks to mitigate hail disasters by aiding development of new satellite-based severe storm nowcasting tools by regional partners and developing climatologies to improve societal understanding of hail frequency. GEOO visible and infrared metrics of storm intensity, environmental conditions based on reanalyses, spotter hail reports and radar MESH observations are intercompared to quantify the detectability of hailstorms, and our ability to discriminate hailstorms from other severe storms. We are also maturing methods using land surface imaging satellite data (e.g. MODIS, Landsat, Sentinel 1 and 2) to identify hail damage to agriculture. Work with WTW will improve socioeconomic resilience through development of new CatModels. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina feature some of the most intense thunderstorms on Earth. South America and South Africa are developing insurance markets of interest to WTW clients, and is similar to other regions routinely impacted by hail that do not have comprehensive hail reporting or radars to assess hailstorm frequency. Project datasets will be made available via online GIS-enabled tools developed at the LaRC Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) which will visualize data and provide it in multiple formats for use in a wide range of open source and commercial tools.

Kristopher Michael Bedka↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Building Capacity to Use Earth Observations for Wildfire Risk Reduction and Resilience Applications: A Summary of NASA’s DEVELOP 2022 Wildfire Projects

NASA’s DEVELOP Program engages individuals and organizations in 10-week feasibility studies to apply NASA Earth observations (EO) to decision makers’ needs. DEVELOP maintains a balance of projects across nine application areas, one of which is Wildfires. DEVELOP's Wildfires application area supports pre-fire (fuel loading, fire risk), during (active fire detection), and post-fire (fire extent, intensity) monitoring and modeling. In 2022 so far, DEVELOP has conducted six projects with Wildfires as a primary or secondary component across a diverse set of study areas. This presentation introduces DEVELOP, its approach to capacity building, key partnerships, and project results highlighting the capabilities of EO for enhanced decision-making regarding wildfires.

Wildfire↗

NASA NTRS2017

Assessing Ecosystem Service Provision Under Climate Change to Support Conservation and Development Planning in Myanmar

Inclusion of ecosystem services (ES) information into national-scale development and climate adaptation planning has yet to become common practice, despite demand from decision makers. Identifying where ES originate and to whom the benefits flowunder current and future climate conditionsis especially critical in rapidly developing countries, where the risk of ES loss is high. Here, using Myanmar as a case study, we assess where and how ecosystems provide key benefits to the countrys people and infrastructure. We model the supply of and demand for sediment retention, dry-season baseflows, flood risk reduction and coastal storm protection from multiple beneficiaries. We find that locations currently providing the greatest amount of services are likely to remain important under the range of climate conditions considered, demonstrating their importance in planning for climate resilience. Overlap between priority areas for ES provision and biodiversity conservation is higher than expected by chance overall, but the areas important for multiple ES are underrepresented in currently designated protected areas and Key Biodiversity Areas. Our results are contributing to development planning in Myanmar, and our approach could be extended to other contexts where there is demand for national-scale natural capital information to shape development plans and policies

Climate change↗

NASA NTRS2017

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging over the Northeastern Pacific

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter 'rainy season.' Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient-including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures, and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

California drought;Atmospheric ridging;Ocean-atmos↗

NASA NTRS2019

Marsbee - Swarm of Flapping Wing Flyers for Enhanced Mars Exploration: NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) - Phase I: Final Report

Mars exploration has received significant interest from academia, industry, government, and the general public. Despite continued interest, flying on Mars remains challenging, mainly due to the ultra-thin Martian atmospheric density. Although the gravitational acceleration on Mars is 38 percent of Earth's 9.8 meters per second squared, the Martian atmospheric density is only 1.3 percent of the air density on Earth. The aerodynamic forces are proportional to the ambient fluid density. Therefore, flying near the surface of Mars has been considered nearly impossible. The proposed mission architecture (Fig. 1) consists of a Mars rover (already existing) that serves as a mobile base for Marsbees - a deployable swarm of small bio-inspired flapping wing vehicles. In one ConOps scenario, each Marsbee would carry an integrated stereographic video camera and the swarm could construct a 3D topographic map of the local surface for rover path planning. These flying scouts would provide a "third-dimension" to the rover capabilities. In other scenarios, each part of the swarm of Marsbees could carry pressure and temperature sensors for atmospheric sampling, or small spectral analyzers for identification of mineral outcroppings. In each scenario, the rover acts as a recharging and deployment/return station and data and communication hub. Human exploration of Mars is one of the major objectives of NASA and commercial entities such as SpaceX and Boeing. The identified innovations unique to the bio-inspired flapping Marsbee provide viable multi-mode flying mobility for Martian atmospheric and terrain exploration. A swarm of Marsbees provides an enhanced reconfigurable Mars exploration system that is resilient to individual component failures. These Marsbees can carry sensors and wireless communication devices in combination with a Mars rover and helicopters. These enhanced sensing and information gathering abilities can contribute to the following NASA Mars mission objectives: i) "Determine the habitability of an environment", ii) "Obtain surface weather measurements to validate global atmospheric models", and iii) "Prepare for human exploration on Mars." Various commercial entities, e.g. SpaceX and Boeing, are investing in technologies to transport humans to Mars.

Kang, Chang-kwon↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Milwaukee Urban Development: Assessing the Drivers of Urban Flood Vulnerability in Milwaukee using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model (InVEST)

Milwaukee County has experienced an increase in flooding due to climate change and urbanization. The frequency and severity of flooding vary spatially due to differences in land cover, surface permeability, and infrastructure. Marginalized communities tend to experience disproportionately high flooding and damage due to infrastructural inequalities and limited access to resources. To quantify these differences, we used the Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model to calculate and create maps of runoff retention, nominal flood depth, and economic damage to buildings in Milwaukee. Our model inputs included land cover, surface permeability, and rainfall. To inform our precipitation inputs, we used NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) and National Weather Service (NWS) data. We assessed the relationship between flood risk and social and environmental spatial data including redlining, racial demographics, greenspace, and community resilience. The data demonstrate that flood risk is higher in historically redlined neighborhoods, majority Hispanic and Black census block groups, areas that lack parks and trees, and areas of low community resilience as measured by the Census Bureau’s Community Resilience Estimates (CRE). These findings will support our partners, Groundwork Milwaukee and Groundwork USA, in their efforts to promote the equitable distribution of resources and support environmental health in urban spaces. The end products of this project provide our partners with tools to assess urban flooding vulnerability, guide future intervention projects, quantify the effects of environmental injustice, and improve stakeholder access to data.

Madeleine Tango↗

NASA NTRS2022

Milwaukee Urban Development: Assessing the Drivers of Urban Flooding Vulnerability in Milwaukee Using NASA Earth Observations

Madeleine Tango↗

NASA NTRS2017

Cross-Disciplinarity in the Advance of Antarctic Ecosystem Research

The biodiversity, ecosystem services and climate variability of the Antarctic continent, and the Southern Ocean are major components of the whole Earth system. Antarctic ecosystems are driven more strongly by the physical environment than many other marine and terrestrial ecosystems. As a consequence, to understand ecological functioning, cross-disciplinary studies are especially important in Antarctic research. The conceptual study presented here is based on a workshop initiated by the Research Programme Antarctic Thresholds - Ecosystem Resilience and Adaption of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, which focused on challenges in identifying and applying cross-disciplinary approaches in the Antarctic. Novel ideas, and first steps in their implementation, were clustered into eight themes, ranging from scale problems, risk maps, organism and ecosystem responses to multiple environmental changes, to evolutionary processes. Scaling models and data across different spatial and temporal scales were identified as an overarching challenge. Approaches to bridge gaps in the research programmes included multi-disciplinary monitoring, linking biomolecular findings and simulated physical environments, as well as integrative ecological modelling. New strategies in academic education are proposed. The results of advanced cross-disciplinary approaches can contribute significantly to our knowledge of ecosystem functioning, the consequences of climate change, and to global assessments that ultimately benefit humankind.

Scaling↗

NASA NTRS1991

A Scheduling Algorithm for Replicated Real-Time Tasks

We present an algorithm for scheduling real-time periodic tasks on a multiprocessor system under fault-tolerant requirement. Our approach incorporates both the redundancy and masking technique and the imprecise computation model. Since the tasks in hard real-time systems have stringent timing constraints, the redundancy and masking technique are more appropriate than the rollback techniques which usually require extra time for error recovery. The imprecise computation model provides flexible functionality by trading off the quality of the result produced by a task with the amount of processing time required to produce it. It therefore permits the performance of a real-time system to degrade gracefully. We evaluate the algorithm by stochastic analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the algorithm is resilient under hardware failures.

Yu, Albert C.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Colorado Front Range Disasters: Understanding the Impact of Forest Management on the Cameron Peak and CalWood Fire

Along the Colorado Front Range, forest management has gained significant attention due to uncharacteristically large fires that burned late in 2020. The Cameron Peak Fire (largest in Colorado recorded history) and the CalWood Fire collectively burned an estimated 219,019 acres from August through December of 2020. Project partners at the Coalition for the Poudre River Watershed, Colorado State Forest Service, Ben Delatour Scout Ranch, The Nature Conservancy, Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, and Colorado State University were interested in understanding the effectiveness of previous forest treatments in reducing burn severity within the Cameron Peak Fire and the CalWood Fire. We first collated a forest treatment dataset from pre-existing datasets by reclassifying over 29,000 treatments, which occurred across the Northern Colorado Front Range between 1970-2020. Secondly, we mapped three burn severity indices using Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI Earth observations and compared them to soil burn severity field data. Thirdly, a total of 35 topographic, disturbance, forest structure, and treatment predictor variables were generated across the fires. Finally, we assessed relationships between these predictor variables and burn severity using the random forest algorithm. Model results indicate that the primary drivers of burn severity were elevation and distance to treatment edge for the Cameron Peak Fire and fire area and forest canopy cover for the CalWood Fire. Further analysis of these variables paired with field data is necessary to understand the relationship between burn severity and treatments to guide future restoration efforts, improve forest resiliency, and mitigate fire risks.

Neal Swayze↗

NASA NTRS2014

Launch Load Resistant Spacecraft Mechanism Bearings Made From NiTi Superelastic Intermetallic Materials

Compared to conventional bearing materials (tool steel and ceramics), emerging Superelastic Intermetallic Materials (SIMs), such as 60NiTi, have significantly lower elastic modulus and enhanced strain capability. They are also immune to atmospheric corrosion (rusting). This offers the potential for increased resilience and superior ability to withstand static indentation load without damage. In this paper, the static load capacity of hardened 60NiTi 50mm bore ball-bearing races are measured to correlate existing flat-plate indentation load capacity data to an actual bearing geometry through the Hertz stress relations. The results confirmed the validity of using the Hertz stress relations to model 60NiTi contacts; 60NiTi exhibits a static stress capability (3.1GPa) between that of 440C (2.4GPa) and REX20 (3.8GPa) tool steel. When the reduced modulus and extended strain capability are taken into account, 60NiTi is shown to withstand higher loads than other bearing materials. To quantify this effect, a notional space mechanism, a 5kg mass reaction wheel, was modeled with respect to launch load capability when supported on 440C, 60NiTi and REX20 tool steel bearings. For this application, the use of REX20 bearings increased the static load capability of the mechanism by a factor of three while the use of 60NiTi bearings resulted in an order of magnitude improvement compared to the baseline 440C stainless steel bearings.

metals↗

NASA NTRS2014

Launch Load Resistant Spacecraft Mechanism Bearings Made From NiTi Superelastic Intermetallic Materials

bearings↗

NASA NTRS2012

Investigation, Modeling, and Analysis of Integrated Metroplex Arrival and Departure Coordination Concepts

This work involves the development of a concept that enhances integrated metroplex arrival and departure coordination, determines the temporal (the use of time separation for aircraft sharing the same airspace resources) and spatial (the use of different routes or vertical profiles for aircraft streams at any given time) impact of metroplex traffic coordination within the National Airspace System (NAS), and quantifies the benefits of the most desirable metroplex traffic coordination concept. Researching and developing metroplex concepts is addressed in this work that broadly applies across the range of airspace and airport demand characteristics envisioned for NextGen metroplex operations. The objective of this work is to investigate, formulate, develop models, and analyze an operational concept that mitigates issues specific to the metroplex or that takes advantage of unique characteristics of metroplex airports to improve efficiencies. The concept is an innovative approach allowing the NAS to mitigate metroplex interdependencies between airports, optimize metroplex arrival and departure coordination among airports, maximize metroplex airport throughput, minimize delay due to airport runway configuration changes, increase resiliency to disruptions, and increase the tolerance of the system to degrade gracefully under adverse conditions such as weather, traffic management initiatives, and delays in general.

Clarke, John-Paul B.↗