Implications of a regional resource adequacy program for utility integrated resource planning
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The Billion-ton Reports series has addressed the technical economic potential of supplying additional biomass from farmland and forests.Underlying each of the reports and supporting scenarios is a series of assumptions that drive the modeled output. The assumptions have developed over time with the support of technical experts from industry, academia, and government. Energy crops have not yet reached commodity scale, and only exist in commercial production in a limited number of regions, so many of the key assumptions of biomass potential are not supported by commercial demonstrations across multiple regions. This report examines the biomass potential of herbaceous energy crops from US farmland when alternative assumptions concerning production are modeled. In particular, the assumption of energy grasses, both perennial and annual, is modified with respect to land eligibility, annual rotations, and yield growth. The results of these changes are presented in six scenarios – three of which are modifications to the base-case scenario and three to the high-yield scenario. Finally, the impact on land enrolled and biomass supply are discussed with respect to the most recent 2016 Billion-ton Report results.
This paper proposes a methodology to address the trading strategies of a proactive distribution company (PDISCO) engaged in the transmission-level (TL) markets. A one-leader multi-follower bilevel model is presented to formulate the gaming framework between the PDISCO and markets. The lower-level (LL) problems include the TL day-ahead market and scenario-based real-time markets, respectively with the objectives of maximizing social welfare and minimizing operation cost. The upper-level (UL) problem is to maximize the PDISCO’s profit across these markets. The PDISCO’s strategic offers/bids interactively influence the outcomes of each market. Since the LL problems are linear and convex, while the UL problem is non-linear and non-convex, an equivalent primal–dual approach is used to reformulate this bilevel model to a solvable mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC). The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by case studies.
To characterize tidal current and turbulence at a top tidal energy site off the East Foreland in Cook Inlet, Alaska, United States, three moorings were deployed for two months between July and August 2021, and a transect survey was conducted over the course of two tidal cycles at the end of the deployment period. Measurements of velocity and turbulence were then analyzed to better understand the site's hydrodynamics and power potential. Analysis reveals that swift, north-flowing flood currents peak at 4~m/s, while south-flowing ebb currents reach just over 3~m/s. Turbulence intensity ranges from 23\% at the seafloor to 8\% near the surface, and the presence of the foreland creates more intense turbulence near-shore during ebb tide than flood. Power availability at the site could be as high as 720~MW, or 13~kW/m$^2$, though the energy available to a marine energy device will be smaller than this estimate because of water-to-wire efficiency and wake losses. The results from this measurement campaign will inform the validation of a high-resolution tidal hydrodynamic model, as well as early tidal energy projects that are beginning to move beyond the prototyping and demonstration stages to full-scale deployments.
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The presented database includes water chemistry data and structural rating values for various geothermal features used for performing principal component (PC) and cluster analyses work to identify promising KGRAs and IHRAs in southern Idaho and southeastern Oregon. A brief note on various KGRAs/IHRAs is also included herewith. Results of PC and cluster analyses are presented as a separate paper (Lindsey et al., 2017) that is, as of the time of this submission, in 'revision' status.
This presentation briefly summarizes some challenges related to the stability of power systems with very high levels of inverter-based generation. It also summarizes some solutions and provides an example of a study that implemented some of those solutions.
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The US offshore wind industry is maturing with several projects in various stages of development. These projects require site wind and environmental data before and during operation. Conventional techniques such as fixed-bottom meteorological towers present economical and permitting challenges for the US. Floating Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) buoys offer significant advantages including reduced costs, less permitting, and reusability. This paper presents the validation of the first floating LiDAR buoy in Northeast US waters. The buoy, named DeepCLiDAR, includes a LiDAR, ecological monitoring sensors, and metocean sensors. A three-phase LiDAR validation plan was executed, and its results are presented. The objective of the validation plan was to verify the accuracy of measurements made by the LiDAR buoy in wave environments against an unmoving reference wind measurement. Due to a lack of reference met masts, the use of a LiDAR on land as a baseline reference was implemented for validation. Comparison to a reference LiDAR instead of a traditional meteorological tower was a unique approach required in the Northeast US waters due to the absence of a reference fixed-bottom meteorological tower in the region at the time of this study. The testing included a comparison of wind speed measurements made by the buoy deployed 15 km offshore from the mainland and a land-based reference LiDAR located on a nearby island. This paper presents the methodology and results of this program, which indicate favorable agreement. This was the first such validation program in the Northeast USA which is now seeing rapid development of offshore wind.
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Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is complicated by mismatched spatial representations between gridded Earth System Models (ESMs) and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), whose regions are typically larger and defined by geopolitical and biophysical criteria. In this study we address uncertainty stemming from the construction of land use regions in an IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), whose regions are currently based on historical climatic conditions (1961-1990). We re-define GCAM’s regions according to projected climatic conditions (2070-2099), and investigate how this changes model outcomes for land use, agriculture, and forestry. By 2100, we find potentially large differences in projected global and regional area of biomass energy crops, fodder crops, harvested forest, and intensive pasture. These land area differences correspond with changes in agricultural commodity prices and production. These results have broader implications for understanding policy scenarios and potential impacts, and for evaluating and comparing IAM and ESM simulations.