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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Consequences of Asteroid Characterization on the State of Knowledge about Inferred Physical Properties and Impact Risk

Physical characteristics of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are essential inputs to planetary defense assessments. The size, density, and strength of an NEO are critical inputs to modeling behavior during atmospheric entry as well as assessing the risk of impact. Similarly, knowledge of the physical characteristics of an object are necessary to evaluate the probable result of a mitigation mission. Usually, these attributes cannot be directly measured, but increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to infer physical properties from related measurements of asteroids, meteors, and/or meteorites. Fortuitously, some of these measurements have been obtained for enough NEOs to elucidate the distribution of values across the sampled population. However, the situation becomes more challenging when considering a specific asteroid, since it is unlikely that all the relevant measurements have been made for any given object. We have developed a Bayesian network that can combine available information about a particular NEO with knowledge of the larger population to infer probabilistic values and uncertainties for physical characteristics of interest. Distributions of asteroid population albedos, taxonomic classes, and macroporosities, along with meteorite density distributions and associations between taxonomic classes and meteorite classes, provide the default distributions for the network’s parameter nodes. The inference network links parameters for each virtual asteroid either deterministically or probabilistically as appropriate, and eliminates any unphysical combinations of parameters. Within the context of planetary defense, our Bayesian network can be used to constrain the ranges of likely impactor properties, which can subsequently reduce the uncertainty in modelling of atmospheric entry, mitigation efficacy, and impact risk assessment. When additional measurements become available for a specific object, the network incorporates those measurements to generate virtual asteroids with property distributions that are consistent with the measurements. We will use the 2023 PDC scenario to demonstrate how the inference network can be combined with plausible characterization measurements to refine the state of knowledge about likely combinations of physical parameters and the resulting impact risk.

risk assessment↗

NASA NTRS2019

Consequences of MMOD Penetrations on the International Space Station

Risk from micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts on space vehicles is often quantified in terms of the probability of no penetration (PNP). However, for large spacecraft, especially those with multiple compartments, a penetration may have a number of possible outcomes. The extent of the damage (diameter of hole, crack length or penetration depth), the location of the damage relative to critical equipment or crew, crew response, and even the time of day of the penetration are among the many factors that can affect the outcome. For the International Space Station (ISS), a Monte-Carlo style software code called Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability (MSCSurv) is used to predict the probability of several outcomes of an MMOD penetration—broadly classified as loss of crew (LOC), crew evacuation (Evac), loss of escape vehicle (LEV), and nominal end of mission (NEOM). By generating large numbers of MMOD impacts (typically in the billions) and tracking the consequences, MSCSurv allows for the inclusion of a large number of parameters and models as well as enabling the consideration of uncertainties in the models and parameters. MSCSurv builds upon the results from NASA’s Bumper software (which provides the probability of penetration and critical input data to MSCSurv) to allow analysts to estimate the probability of LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM. This paper provides an overview of the methodology used by NASA to quantify LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM with particular emphasis on describing in broad terms how MSCSurv works and its capabilities and most significant models.

Evans, Hilary J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Role of Space Medicine in Management of Risk in Spaceflight

The purpose of Space Medicine is to ensure mission success by providing quality and comprehensive health care throughout all mission phases to optimize crew health and performance and to prevent negative long-term health consequences. Space flight presents additional hazards and associated risks to crew health, performance, and safety. With an extended human presence in space it is expected that illness and injury will occur on orbit, which may present a significant threat to crew health and performance and to mission success. Maintaining crew health, safety and performance and preventing illness and injury are high priorities necessary for mission success and agency goals. Space flight health care should meet the standards of practice of evidence based clinical medicine. The function of Space Medicine is expected to meet the agency goals as stated in the 1998 NASA Strategic Plan and the priorities established by the Critical Path Roadmap Project. The Critical Path Roadmap Project is an integrated NASA cross-disciplinary strategy to assess, understand, mitigate, and manage the risks associated with long-term exposure to the space flight environment. The evidence based approach to space medicine should be standardized, objective process yielding expected results and establishing clinical practice standards while balancing individual risk with mission (programmatic) risk. The ability to methodically apply available knowledge and expertise to individual and mission health issues will ensure appropriate priorities are assigned and resources are allocated. NASA Space Medicine risk management process is a combined clinical and engineering approach. Competition for weight, power, volume, cost, and crew time must be balanced in making decisions about the care of individual crew with competing agency resources.

Clark, Jonathan B.↗

NASA NTRS2010

2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

Hamlin, Teri L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Application of Accelerometer Data to Mars Odyssey Aerobraking and Atmospheric Modeling

Aerobraking was an enabling technology for the Mars Odyssey mission even though it involved risk due primarily to the variability of the Mars upper atmosphere. Consequently, numerous analyses based on various data types were performed during operations to reduce these risk and among these data were measurements from spacecraft accelerometers. This paper reports on the use of accelerometer data for determining atmospheric density during Odyssey aerobraking operations. Acceleration was measured along three orthogonal axes, although only data from the component along the axis nominally into the flow was used during operations. For a one second count time, the RMS noise level varied from 0.07 to 0.5 mm/s2 permitting density recovery to between 0.15 and 1.1 kg per cu km or about 2% of the mean density at periapsis during aerobraking. Accelerometer data were analyzed in near real time to provide estimates of density at periapsis, maximum density, density scale height, latitudinal gradient, longitudinal wave variations and location of the polar vortex. Summaries are given of the aerobraking phase of the mission, the accelerometer data analysis methods and operational procedures, some applications to determining thermospheric properties, and some remaining issues on interpretation of the data. Pre-flight estimates of natural variability based on Mars Global Surveyor accelerometer measurements proved reliable in the mid-latitudes, but overestimated the variability inside the polar vortex.

Tolson, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

Rhatigan, Jennifer↗

NASA NTRS2020

Architecture and Information Requirements to Assess and Predict Flight Safety Risks During Highly Autonomous Urban Flight Operations

As aviation adopts new and increasingly complex operational paradigms, vehicle types, and technologies to broaden airspace capability and efficiency, maintaining a safe system will require recognition and timely mitigation of new safety issues as they emerge and before significant consequences occur. A shift toward a more predictive risk mitigation capability becomes critical to meet this challenge. In-time safety assurance comprises monitoring, assessment, and mitigation functions that proactively reduce risk in complex operational environments where the interplay of hazards may not be known (and therefore not accounted for) during design. These functions can also help to understand and predict emergent effects caused by the increased use of automation or autonomous functions that may exhibit unexpected non-deterministic behaviors. The envisioned monitoring and assessment functions can look for precursors, anomalies, and trends (PATs) by applying model-based and data-driven methods. Outputs would then drive downstream mitigation(s) if needed to reduce risk. These mitigations may be accomplished using traditional design revision processes or via operational (and sometimes automated) mechanisms. The latter refers to the ‘in-time’ aspect of the system concept. This report comprises architecture and information requirements and considerations toward enabling such a capability within the domain of low altitude highly autonomous urban flight operations. This domain may span, for example, public-use surveillance missions flown by small unmanned aircraft (e.g., infrastructure inspection, facility management, emergency response, law enforcement, and/or security) to transportation missions flown by larger aircraft that may carry passengers or deliver products. Caveat: Any stated requirements in this report should be considered initial requirements that are intended to drive research and development (R&D). These initial requirements are likely to evolve based on R&D findings, refinement of operational concepts, industry advances, and new industry or regulatory policies or standards related to safety assurance.

Young, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2015

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

DeMott, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Design and Requirements Creep In A Build-To-Print Mission

Build-to-Print designs, or rebuilds of flight proven designs, are attractive to mission stakeholders, as they give the appearance of minimal engineering development cost, risk, and schedule. The reality is that seldom is a project an exact duplicate of a predecessor. Mission reclassification, improvements in hardware, and science objective changes can all serve as a source of requirements and design creep and have ramifications often not fully anticipated during initial proposals. The Thermal Infrared Sensor Instrument (TIRS) was a late addition to the LandSat-8 program to provide infrared imaging to measure evapotranspiration for water cycle management. To meet the launch requirements for LandSat-8, instrument design life requirements were relaxed, the sensor development expedited, and technology development was minimized. Consequently, TIRS was designed as a higher risk instrument, with less redundancy than an instrument critical to mission success. After the successful LandSat-8 launch in 2013 and instrument performance, a rebuild of the instrument for the next LandSat spacecraft was included in the baseline mission success criteria. This paper discusses the technical challenges encountered during the rebuild of the TIRS-2 (Thermal Infrared Sensor 2) instrument and the resultant impacts on the thermal system design.

TIRS-2 Thermal Design↗

NASA NTRS2003

Radiation-Related Risk Analysis for Atmospheric Flight Civil Aviation Flight Personnel

Human data on low dose rate radiation exposure and consequent effects are not readily available, and this fact generates groundtruth concerns for all risk assessment techniques for possible health effects induced by the space radiation environment, especially for long term missions like those foreseen now and in the near future. A large amount of such data may be obtained through civil aviation flight personnel cohorts, in the form of epidemiological studies on delayed health effects induced by the cosmic-ray generated atmospheric radiation environment, a high- LET low dose and low dose rate ionizing radiation with its typical neutron component, to which flight personnel are exposed all throughout their work activity. In the perspective of worldwide studies on radiation exposure of the civil aviation flight personnel, all the available results from previous studies on flight personnel radiation exposure have been examined in various ways (i.e. literature review, meta-analysis) to evaluate possible significant associations between atmospheric ionizing radiation environment and health risks, and to assess directions for future investigations. The physical characteristics of the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment make the results obtained for atmospheric flight personnel relevant for space exploration.

DeAngelis, G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

IMPACT - Information for the Development of Human Health and Performance Systems

IMPACT is a suite of computational and systems engineering tools. Currently being developed for NASA Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) and could be extended to other Human Research Program (HRP) elements. The purpose is to provide a data-driven means to inform human health and performance risk mitigation during exploration missions considering resource constraints in the medical system. IMPACT enables systematic trade studies to evaluate options. IMPACT uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as a systematic methodology to evaluate risks. IMPACT is currently under development to inform decision-makers the risks involved with trade-options that have likelihoods and consequences backed by scientific research in a medical evidence library. IMPACT supports multi-segment analysis to determine probabilities and risks in different mission segments. There are currently 122 medical conditions and 900 resources in the IMPACT Medical Database. IMPACT modeling is using mission segments and multiple vehicles for the NASA Artemis campaign and could support future complex missions in deep space.

IMPACT PRA↗

NASA NTRS2016

Tailoring a Human Reliability Analysis to Your Industry Needs

Companies at risk of accidents caused by human error that result in catastrophic consequences include: airline industry mishaps, medical malpractice, medication mistakes, aerospace failures, major oil spills, transportation mishaps, power production failures and manufacturing facility incidents. Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) is used to analyze the inherent risk of human behavior or actions introducing errors into the operation of a system or process. These assessments can be used to identify where errors are most likely to arise and the potential risks involved if they do occur. Using the basic concepts of HRA, an evolving group of methodologies are used to meet various industry needs. Determining which methodology or combination of techniques will provide a quality human reliability assessment is a key element to developing effective strategies for understanding and dealing with risks caused by human errors. There are a number of concerns and difficulties in "tailoring" a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) for different industries. Although a variety of HRA methodologies are available to analyze human error events, determining the most appropriate tools to provide the most useful results can depend on industry specific cultures and requirements. Methodology selection may be based on a variety of factors that include: 1) how people act and react in different industries, 2) expectations based on industry standards, 3) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 4) type and availability of data, 5) how the industry views risk & reliability, and 6) types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks. Other considerations for methodology selection should be based on what information is needed from the assessment. If the principal concern is determination of the primary risk factors contributing to the potential human error, a more detailed analysis method may be employed versus a requirement to provide a numerical value as part of a probabilistic risk assessment. Industries involved with humans operating large equipment or transport systems (ex. railroads or airlines) would have more need to address the man machine interface than medical workers administering medications. Human error occurs in every industry; in most cases the consequences are relatively benign and occasionally beneficial. In cases where the results can have disastrous consequences, the use of Human Reliability techniques to identify and classify the risk of human errors allows a company more opportunities to mitigate or eliminate these types of risks and prevent costly tragedies.

DeMott, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Modeling the Risk of U.S. Offshore Oil & Gas Exploration-Well Drilling, Commercial Nuclear Plants, and Human Spaceflight

Nuclear power, offshore oil & gas exploration, and human spaceflight all have high consequence potential if something goes wrong. Each has had at least one major incident that pointed to a need for improved risk assessment. Careful risk analysis is very important for technologies having complexity, uncertainty, and high consequence potential. All rely on multiple barriers/controls/redundancy to minimize risk. NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) has moved towards risk informed regulation with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as a major input.

PRA↗

NASA NTRS2015

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

DeMott, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Risks and issues in fire safety on the Space Station

A fire in the inhabited portion of a spacecraft is a greatly feared hazard, but fire protection in space operations is complicated by two factors. First, the spacecraft cabin is an enclosed volume, which limits the resources for fire fighting and the options for crew escape. Second, an orbiting spacecraft experiences a balance of forces, creating a near-zero-gravity (microgravity) environment that profoundly affects the characteristics of fire initiation, spread, and suppression. The current Shuttle Orbiter is protected by a fire-detection and suppression system whose requirements are derived of necessity from accepted terrestrial and aircraft standards. While experience has shown that Shuttle fire safety is adequate, designers recognize that improved systems to respond specifically to microgravity fire characteristics are highly desirable. Innovative technology is particularly advisable for the Space Station, a forthcoming space community with a complex configuration and long-duration orbital missions, in which the effectiveness of current fire-protection systems is unpredictable. The development of risk assessments to evaluate the probabilities and consequences of fire incidents in spacecraft are briefly reviewed. It further discusses the important unresolved issues and needs for improved fire safety in the Space Station, including those of material selection, spacecraft atmospheres, fire detection, fire suppression, and post-fire restoration.

Friedman, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1992

Uncertainties in obtaining high reliability from stress-strength models

There has been a recent interest in determining high statistical reliability in risk assessment of aircraft components. The potential consequences are identified of incorrectly assuming a particular statistical distribution for stress or strength data used in obtaining the high reliability values. The computation of the reliability is defined as the probability of the strength being greater than the stress over the range of stress values. This method is often referred to as the stress-strength model. A sensitivity analysis was performed involving a comparison of reliability results in order to evaluate the effects of assuming specific statistical distributions. Both known population distributions, and those that differed slightly from the known, were considered. Results showed substantial differences in reliability estimates even for almost nondetectable differences in the assumed distributions. These differences represent a potential problem in using the stress-strength model for high reliability computations, since in practice it is impossible to ever know the exact (population) distribution. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability.

Neal, Donald M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Errors in Aviation Decision Making: Bad Decisions or Bad Luck?

Despite efforts to design systems and procedures to support 'correct' and safe operations in aviation, errors in human judgment still occur and contribute to accidents. In this paper we examine how an NDM (naturalistic decision making) approach might help us to understand the role of decision processes in negative outcomes. Our strategy was to examine a collection of identified decision errors through the lens of an aviation decision process model and to search for common patterns. The second, and more difficult, task was to determine what might account for those patterns. The corpus we analyzed consisted of tactical decision errors identified by the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) from a set of accidents in which crew behavior contributed to the accident. A common pattern emerged: about three quarters of the errors represented plan-continuation errors, that is, a decision to continue with the original plan despite cues that suggested changing the course of action. Features in the context that might contribute to these errors were identified: (a) ambiguous dynamic conditions and (b) organizational and socially-induced goal conflicts. We hypothesize that 'errors' are mediated by underestimation of risk and failure to analyze the potential consequences of continuing with the initial plan. Stressors may further contribute to these effects. Suggestions for improving performance in these error-inducing contexts are discussed.

Orasanu, Judith↗

NASA NTRS1999

Detecting thermal discrepancies in vessel walls

An infrared, heat-sensing catheter particularly useful for identifying potentially fatal arterial plaques in patients with disease of the coronary or other arteries and its use are detailed. In one embodiment, an infrared fiberoptic system (with or without ultrasound) is employed at the tip of the catheter to locate inflamed, heat-producing, atherosclerotic plaque, which is at greater risk for rupture, fissure, or ulceration, and consequent thrombosis and occlusion of the artery. In another embodiment, a catheter with an infrared detector (with or without ultrasound) employed at its tip will likewise locate inflamed heat-producing atherosclerotic plaque. The devices and methods of the invention may be used to detect abscesses, infection, and cancerous regions by the heat such regions differentially display over the ambient temperature of immediately adjacent tissues. The methods and devices of the invention may also be used to detect regions of cooler than ambient tissue in a vessel or organ which indicate cell death, thrombosis, cell death, hemorrhage, calcium or cholesterol accumulations, or foreign materials.

Casscells, S. Ward↗