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DOE OSTI2024

Leverage demand-side policies for energy security

Energy security is a top priority for governments, companies, and households because energy systems and the critical functions that they support are threatened by disruptions from wars, pandemics, climate change, and other shocks (1). More often than not, governments rely on policies focused on energy supply to enhance energy security while generally ignoring demand-side possibilities. Further, the indicators traditionally used to measure energy security are also tilted toward the supply side; this fails to capture the full spectrum of vulnerability to energy crises. Energy security assessments need to reflect the wider benefits of security related interventions more accurately. To that end, we develop a systematic approach to measuring the energy security impacts of policy interventions that explicitly considers energy demand (buildings, transport, and industry). Here, we determine that demand-side actions outperform conventional supply-side approaches at making countries more resilient. Energy demand links more directly than supply to the satisfaction of critical social functions and human well-being that are at the core of energy security. Yet, demand-side perspectives tend to be neglected or underrepresented in analysis and policy debates on energy security. Factors that contribute to this supply-side bias include the traditional sectoral organization of industries and policy institutions along fuels (coal, oil, and gas) and energy forms (electric utilities) as well as the decentralized and multivaried activities characteristic of energy demand (from vehicles to household appliances to manufacturing and more), which leads to a multitude of actors and institutional fragmentation. The basic fundamentals of energy systems and markets, where demand and supply are intricately linked, have also not yet risen from vague awareness to a central organizing principle among policy-makers for structuring the energy security discourse.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fostering Nuclear Security Culture through Effective Leadership: An Operational Perspective

Security culture plays a critical role in determining the effectiveness of an organization's security performance, making its significance impossible to overemphasize. It encompasses the collective values, shared perceptions, and habitual actions embraced by all individuals within a nuclear organization—from leadership to frontline staff. When the entire workforce recognizes the reality of potential threats, accepts that security is a shared duty, and integrates security-minded behavior into everyday routines, it fosters an environment where strong security practices are the norm. In such a setting, everyone can take pride and feel reassured in being part of an organization where a strong security culture is deeply embedded. Security culture is based on the broader concept of organizational culture. All organizations—whether families, social clubs, religious institutions, businesses, non-governmental organizations, or governments—possess an underlying culture shaped by core values and beliefs. These values and beliefs influence attitudes and drive behavior throughout the organization. While multiple factors contribute to the development of a strong security culture, leadership plays a particularly pivotal role. In organizations where security culture is well-established, leaders go beyond rhetoric; they demonstrate a genuine commitment to security through their actions. They implement policies and procedures that actively engage all employees, foster open dialogue around security concerns, and encourage teamwork in resolving issues. Furthermore, they reward proactive behavior and ensure that corrective actions are taken promptly. Regular assessments of the organization's security culture allow such leaders to gauge its effectiveness and take strategic steps to strengthen it when necessary. This paper leverages practical, real-world experience to guide leadership and senior management within nuclear organizations through the foundational steps of cultivating a robust, organization-wide culture of nuclear security. It emphasizes the critical importance of early leadership engagement in shaping this culture and outlines a comprehensive approach that includes strategic, tactical, and operational measures. Additionally, it explores methods for fostering a unified vision across all levels of the organization to ensure alignment, commitment, and continuous improvement in nuclear security practices.

Zineddin, Dr. Z. [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000848740725)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Trends and drivers of marine fish landings in Portugal since its entrance in the European Union

Abstract Marine landings in Portugal have decreased at a higher rate than fishing effort in the last 20 years. Identifying the variables driving the quantity and composition of landings is pivotal to understand the dynamics of the fisheries sector, which entails complex social and environmental aspects. In this study, we investigate the main drivers of marine fish landings in continental Portugal between 1989 and 2014. To identify common trends in time series, and quantify the importance of environmental factors, we applied a dynamic factor analysis considering four regions and three types of gear (trawling, purse-seine, and a multi-gear fishery). Our results show the importance of fishing effort as the most relevant factor driving marine landings in Portugal, both at the long and short terms. In addition, the effect of environmental factors such as the winter river discharge and the spring East Atlantic Teleconnection index should not be neglected, probably through mechanisms affecting coastal productivity. We provide a comprehensive amount of information that permits to improve our understanding of the trends of the most important commercial species in Portugal during the period of study.

Bueno-Pardo, Juan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Let’s talk about sex: A biological variable in immune response against melanoma

As science culture gravitates toward a more holistic inclusion of both males and females in research design, the outlining of sex differences and their respective intersections with disease physiology and pathophysiology should see reciprocal expansion. Melanoma skin cancer, for example, has observed a female advantage in incidence, mortality, and overall survival since the early 1970s. The exact biological mechanism of this trend, however, is unclear and further complicated by a layering of clinical variables such as skin phototype, age, and body mass index. In this perspective, we highlight epidemiological evidence of sex differences in melanoma and summarize the landscape of their potential origin. Among several biological hallmarks, we make a note of sex-specific immune profiles—along with divergent hormonal regulation, social practices, DNA damage and oxidative stress responses, body composition, genetic variants, and X-chromosome expression—as probable drivers of disparity in melanoma initiation and progression. This review further focuses the conversation of sex as an influencing factor in melanoma development and its potential implication for disease management and treatment strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Of Actors, Cities and Energy Systems: Advancing the Transformative Potential of Urban Electrification

The electrification of transportation and the integration of electric vehicles (EVs) with buildings connected to clean grids has been touted as one of the key solutions to the global decarbonization challenge. Cities are on the frontlines of current and future electrification, as they depend on and drive electricity generation, distribution, and use. City actors also occupy a central role in the actions to enable electrification to support energy transitions in efficient, equitable, environmentally sound, and resilient ways. Currently, however, research and development on the interactions between actors, cities and energy systems is predominantly conducted in disciplinary siloes. This topical review analyzes the transformational potential of urban electrification. It focuses on efforts to electrify transportation and integrate EVs with buildings connected to a clean grid. We find that actions in these area are driving change; they are adopted by wealthier populations and on an experimental basis by specific communities. Their larger-scale growth is constrained by institutional, behavioral, and infrastructural factors. We also find that existing siloed disciplinary approaches are often incompatible with advancing holistic research. To achieve that, divergent communities of scholars need to come together to integrate their research and create broader perspectives. Through incorporation of the social sciences, these perspectives need to consider the societal limits and potentials brought to bear by human behavior and decision making. Only then can urban electrification be understood as the empirically rich and socially complex topic that it is. And only with this understanding will innovations and smart policy actions be able to tap into the transformational potential of urban electrification.

cities↗

DOE OSTI2025

A consumer-centric approach to quantify efficiency of receiving goods purchased via online

Virtual participation in shopping activities has increased exponentially in the past four years compared to the last couple of decades. E-tailing or online shopping offers the convenience of goods reaching a consumer instead of a consumer traveling to a store, but it has downsides like geographical service variability and negative social externalities such as increased energy consumption and emissions. This study proposes a novel approach to quantify e-tailing efficiency from the consumers’ viewpoint. The methodology is innovative in its integration of accessibility theory with energy and cost impedance factors and consideration of delivering and picking up goods purchased via online. The methodology is implemented for the San Francisco Bay Area and is subject to scenarios that see enhancements to various facets of online shopping delivery. Results demonstrate that increasing the frequency of e-commerce deliveries helps improve e-tailing efficiency in rural locations, while improvements in energy and cost aspects of delivery modes are seen to improve e-tailing efficiencies in the central parts of the region. The approach proposed can provide valuable insights on where people have limited benefits from online shopping and how emerging delivery mechanisms can change the quality of the e-commerce experience within a city. This research offers a replicable framework for assessing e-commerce systems in diverse geographic contexts, contributing to the development of equitable and environmentally sustainable urban freight systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Generalized Canonical Polyadic Tensor Decomposition

Tensor decomposition is a fundamental unsupervised machine learning method in data science, with applications including network analysis and sensor data processing. This work develops a generalized canonical polyadic (GCP) low-rank tensor decomposition that allows other loss functions besides squared error. For instance, we can use logistic loss or Kullback--Leibler divergence, enabling tensor decomposition for binary or count data. We present a variety of statistically motivated loss functions for various scenarios. We provide a generalized framework for computing gradients and handling missing data that enables the use of standard optimization methods for fitting the model. Furthermore, we demonstrate the flexibility of the GCP decomposition on several real-world examples including interactions in a social network, neural activity in a mouse, and monthly rainfall measurements in India.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Equity-Centered Engagement Through Climate Resilience Policy in Massachusetts

Communities who experience disproportionate climate change impacts tend to be excluded from resilience planning (Vale, 2014). Those efforts typically follow top-down processes within established governance practices that are inaccessible to marginalized folks and reinforce inequalities (Malloy & Ashcraft, 2020; Adger, 2003). Such participatory planning processes may offer the public little opportunity to influence the process itself or the outcomes (Smith & McDonough, 2001). They might ignore important public values or alternative ways of knowing which can be critical assets in resilience (Few et al., 2007). Designing communities for climate action and resilience means creating opportunities for everyone to meaningfully shape those decisions and experience related benefits. Having the opportunity to shape one’s community is necessary for human flourishing (Allen, 2016). Resilience planning that shifts power into communities and focuses on social vulnerability can affect how people survive and thrive in a climate changed world. The Massachusetts Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness (MVP) 2.0 program is an attempt to change the status quo in resilience planning by bringing new voices into decision-making power, recognizing their labor, addressing root causes of vulnerability, and investing in social infrastructure. It aspires to build capacity for equity-focused community engagement within teams of municipal staff and community liaisons, and ultimately build social capital and community cohesion. My mixed methods research investigates implementation of this state grant program in several western Massachusetts towns. I am using document review, participant observation, and interviews to understand the MVP 2.0 process as written, how different towns navigate it, and how individuals make sense of their experiences in it. I seek to understand how those experiences explain relationships between engagement approaches, mediating factors, and process outcomes. I am interested in the conditions that allow for community empowerment and how a model like MVP 2.0 can shift conditions that hold systems in place. In a practical sense, our findings will help municipalities reflect on their work during MVP 2.0 and plan for future community engagement. They may be informative for designing future iterations of the MVP program and for other municipalities, offices of community engagement, and practitioners. The findings will also contribute to the participation, resilience, and climate justice literatures, by adding perspectives on equity-centered resilience and community engagement approaches in smaller towns and rural settings. References: Adger, W. N. (2003). Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change. Economic Geography, 79, 387-404. Allen, D. (2016). Toward a connected society. Our compelling interests: The value of diversity for democracy and a prosperous society, 71-105. Few, R., Brown, K., & Tompkins, E. L. (2007). Public participation and climate change adaptation: avoiding the illusion of inclusion. Climate Policy, 7(1), 46–59. Malloy, J. T., & Ashcraft, C. M. (2020). A framework for implementing socially just climate adaptation. Climatic Change, 160(1), 1–14. Smith, P. D., & McDonough, M. H. (2001). Beyond public participation: Fairness in natural resource decision making. Society & natural resources, 14(3), 239-249. Vale, L. J. (2014). The politics of resilient cities: whose resilience and whose city? Building Research & Information, 42(2), 191–201.

Callaham, Shannon↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Context-Centered Research Approach to Phishing and Operational Technology in Industrial Control Systems

Advanced persistent threats (APT’s) that leverage phishing against operational technology (OT) are cyber-attacks that endanger critical infrastructure assets nationwide. Today phishing, a human focused exploit, constitutes 91% of successful attack vectors against Federal assets. This means Human Introduced Vulnerabilities (HICV’s) are the weakest cyber defense link. The success of these attacks also suggests HICV’s are not well understood nor mitigated. To characterize HICV’s and provide the necessary context in which they exist, this paper introduces a research approach derived from the mature science of Social Ecology. The desired end result of this research is an HICV focused risk assessment framework.

Advanced Persistent Threats↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Framework for Assessing Economic and Environmental Trade-offs of Internalized Emission Costs in ERCOT Grid Planning

The power grid is on the cusp of a massive transition driven by three major areas: 1) the growth in demand for electricity, 2) efforts to decarbonize the United States economy, and 3) a desire to mitigate social disparities from the impact of electricity generation on local populations. However, most studies of the electricity sector do not include equity impacts in their models. This study seeks to do so by developing a comprehensive and generalizable model tailored to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, designed to incorporate the equity impacts of electricity generation in a decarbonized and resilient framework. To integrate equity into our research, we incorporate environmental externalities into our capacity expansion model of ERCOT. Specifically, we factor in intermediate-level local marginal damages of precursor pollutants (NH3, NOx, primary PM2.5, SO2, and VOC) and global pollutant CO2 into the cost of generating electricity. We do this by taking into account county population, county ambient pollution concentration, and generator emission rates. Leveraging open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX we construct a county-level model to account for these costs. We integrate these marginal damages into the variable operations and maintenance costs of generators, for both existing and potential future builds. This study’s findings suggest that the value of a dynamic social cost of carbon (SSC) will cover criteria pollutant marginal damages within the ERCOT grid and solar and wind is expected to increase out to 2035. Key metrics evaluated within this research include fuel mix distribution across technologies, transmission and grid infrastructure costs, CO2 emissions, local pollutants marginal damages, and the variation in generation capacity built by the model. These results and framework can be used to support grid decisions that explicitly include distributional and procedural equity within a decarbonized and sustainable grid framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing the Spread of COVID-19 from Human Mobility Patterns and SocioDemographic Indicators

Mobility is an indicator of human movement through space and time. With the increasing availability of geolocated data (from GPS, accelerometers, etc.), it is now possible to examine individual as well as group human mobility patterns. Human mobility is influenced by both intrinsic (i.e. personal motivations) and extrinsic (i.e., events like natural hazards or a pandemic like the COVID-19) factors. However, the intricate relationships between human mobility patterns and sociodemographic characteristics in the context of a pandemic are yet to be fully explored. Our goal is to overcome this gap by using human mobility data at the census block group level from mobile phones and combining those with social vulnerability indicators to examine the overall spread of COVID-19 at local spatial scales. We used 585,878 weekly visits to 37,871 points of interests (POIs) from Safegraph to quantify mobility indices and social distancing metrics in 2,820 census block groups in the city of Los Angeles (LA) - before and during lockdown as well as during the phase1 and phase 2 reopening. Finally, using supervised machine learning algorithms, we classified the census block groups in LA into High, Medium and Low categories that represented the vulnerability of these block groups based on the cumulative number of occurrences of COVID-19 cases till July 24, 2020. Our results indicate that the tree-based classifiers performed well in comparison to the Support Vector Machines and Multinomial Logit models. Gradient Boosting had the highest classification accuracy of 97.4% COVID-19 with an AUC score of 0.987. The block groups with high COVID-19 cases also had a high concentration of socially vulnerable populations, high human mobility index and a low social distancing index.

Roy, Avipsa↗

DOE OSTI2021

We are Missing a Term in the Gender-Equity Hamiltonian: Why is Female Participation in Jordan as High as 90% in Physics?

After decades of APS efforts promoting gender equity in physics, female participation remains disappointingly low in the USA and other developed countries. However, new data bring hope and a challenge: Female participation in physics is improving globally and, in some countries, participation far exceeds (my) expectations. But what key factor have we missed in the USA, Japan, and similar countries that other countries have recognized? We are missing a term in the gender-equity Hamiltonian, and my hope for this article is to rejuvenate a global discussion. Too often we ignore international comparisons that could offer insights into social phenomena—from science policy to vaccination acceptance—perhaps because the comparisons are painful.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Distributed PV Hosting Capacity Evaluation Considering Equitable PV Accommodation: Preprint

In distribution systems, distributed photovoltaic (DPV) hosting capacity is widely used by system operators to evaluate how much DPV the distribution networks can accommodate without violating operational constraints. With the proliferation of DPV deployment, if managed properly, it offers a great opportunity to mitigate the persistent energy inequity issue in electric grid. Otherwise, energy inequity can be exacerbated with unequal DPV access when hosting capacity improvement plans ignore the equity factor. To consider energy equity in distribution network planning for enhancing DPV accommodation, the hosting capacity evaluation should be improved to consider equity constraints endogenously. In this paper, a DPV hosting capacity evaluation method is proposed considering equitable DPV access among sub-regions of a distribution feeder partitioned by social-economic indicators such as the income levels. The results demonstrate that considering equity in DPV hosting capacity evaluation can provide valuable reference in the equitable energy transition. This work provides a valuable guidance for future distribution network upgrade planning for equitable DPV deployment.

distributed PV↗

DOE OSTI2023

South Africa: Framework for Energy Efficiency Demand Side Management

In July 2022, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced an emergency response plan to address the growing electricity crisis in South Africa, which included the necessity for customers of Eskom, South Africa’s primary electricity supplier, to implement demand-side energy efficiency measures. This report is the second of two reports that provides the foundation for a strategic Demand-Side Management (DSM) approach to reduce load shedding and maximize energy savings in South Africa, though inter-governmental collaboration and increased coordination of energy efficiency activities. The first report focuses on the experience of Eskom’s rate-funded Integrated Demand Management (IDM) programme, from its beginning in 2004 to today, highlighting the factors that led to failed support for the programme. This second report focuses on addressing the challenges identified in the first report and describes the elements of a policy framework to develop a sustained DSM program to meet the government’s energy efficiency goals in terms of greenhouse gas emissions reduction and social equity and inclusion to achieve a just transition.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Investigating the interconnectedness of active transportation and public transit usage as a primer for Mobility-as-a-Service adoption and deployment

With the advent of Mobility-as-a-Service packages to reduce car usage and (by extension) greenhouse gas emissions, it is crucial that researchers and practitioners consider mutual determinants and outcomes that link the adoption of multiple alternative modes. This study therefore investigates the joint usage of active travel (walking, cycling, bike-sharing) and public transit (bus, rail) modes with respect to personal and situational contexts. Online survey data (n = 826) were collected across six Midwestern U.S. states using Amazon MTurk. Respondents indicated their average weekly usage of eight travel modes across three trip purposes so that multimodality could be assessed. Several psychological constructs were extracted via (a) the stages of change framework, used to indicate willingness to adopt new behavior, and (b) confirmatory factor analysis conducted on Likert scales rooted in theories of community, identity, norms, personality, and well-being. A multiple-indicators multiple-causes structural equation model is then employed to investigate the process of adopting a modality style that incorporates active and transit modes. The model confirms that compatible physical and social contexts, as well as navigational skills and openness to learning, are key primers of multimodalism. However, a path juncture stemming from neighborhood support for mobility innovation illustrates a potential polarity in outcomes between individuals and communities. In addition, the stage of active mobility adoption is linked to identity and norm activation, offering further guidance on what influences readiness for change. The seamless integration of mobility services is critical to matching the convenience and comfort of the private vehicle; understanding potential pathways to sustainable mobility, though, requires analyses and interventions that are driven by well-being outcomes and grounded in rigorous psychological frameworks. Here, the research findings offer practical guidance for identifying intervention opportunities to be linked with MaaS enrollment while demonstrating the need to illuminate how mobility might relate to social cohesion, identity expression, and various sources of satisfaction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Provider Perspectives: Identification and Follow-up of Infants who Are Deaf or Hard of Hearing

Objective Without timely screening, diagnosis, and intervention, hearing loss can cause significant delays in a child's speech, language, social, and emotional development. In 2019, Texas had nearly twice the average rate of loss to follow-up (LFU) or loss to documentation (LTD; i.e., missing documentation of services received) among infants who did not pass their newborn hearing screening compared to the United States overall (51.1 vs. 27.5%). We aimed to identify factors contributing to LFU/LTD among infants who do not pass their newborn hearing screening in Texas. Study Design Data were collected through semistructured qualitative interviews with 56 providers along the hearing care continuum, including hospital newborn hearing screening program staff, audiologists, primary care physicians, and early intervention (EI) program staff located in three rural and urban public health regions in Texas. Following recording and transcription of the interviews, we used qualitative data analysis software to analyze themes using a conventional content analysis approach. Results Frequently cited barriers included problems with family access to care, difficulty contacting patients, problems with communication between providers and referrals, lack of knowledge among providers and parents, and problems using the online reporting system. Providers in rural areas more often mentioned problems with family access to care and contacting families compared to providers in urban areas. Conclusion These findings provide insight into strategies that public health professionals and health care providers can use to work together to help further increase the number of children identified early who may benefit from EI services. Key Points

Obstetrics & Gynecology↗

DOE OSTI2025

CareWELL: Multimodal Region Representation Learning with Spatial Contexts for Urban Health

Rapid urbanization affects living environments by intensifying exposure to air pollution, heat, noise, and urban dynamics, which together contribute to uneven health outcomes across neighborhoods. For instance, cardiovascular, respiratory, and mental health conditions are each influenced by distinct exposures such as air pollution, extreme temperatures, or limited access to green space. These heterogeneous patterns require understanding the characteristics of geographic regions in order to explain why urban health risks vary across urban areas. Recent work in self-supervised region representation learning provides a promising way to model such characteristics from multimodal geospatial data. However, existing methods face two major limitations: (i) they often depend on non-public datasets, limiting reproducibility and applicability, and (ii) their generic pretraining objectives overlook health-relevant determinants, including temporal variability in environmental exposures and inequalities in social conditions. To address these gaps, we propose Context-Aware Region rEpresentation with Weather, Environment, and Location Learning (CareWELL). CareWELL leverages large language models to encode seasonal variability in weather, employs contrastive learning to align geo-coordinate and weather representations, and introduces a context-aware objective that integrates socio-demographic factors while preserving spatial correlations. We evaluate CareWELL by predicting six urban health outcomes in Manhattan, New York City, and demonstrate that CareWELL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines as well as a traditional spatial computing method. These results suggest the importance of context-aware pretraining objectives for learning health-relevant region representations.

Namgung, Min [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2022

[Retracted] Research on Application Experience Design of Ice and Snow Sports Equipment Based on Bee Colony Model

Sports equipment is the key to the smooth development of ice and snow sports. With the rapid development of social economy and the improvement of people’s living standards, the demand for ice and snow sports equipment is increasing day by day. This article presents an improved method based on the chaos theory and the bee colony algorithm to quantify the application experience design of ice and snow sports equipment and reduce the influence of uncertain factors on the design results. First, the chaos theory can establish the dataset of application experience design and analyze the discreteness of the set. According to the bee colony algorithm, the dataset is divided into several groups, and each group obtains the best application experience design by using the design optimization strategy. Finally, the results are mixed to obtain the final experience design results. Through MATLAB simulation analysis and verification, the improved bee colony model can improve the accuracy of application experience design of ice and snow sports equipment in an uncertain environment, shorten the overall design time, and meet the requirements of application experience design of different ice and snow sports equipment. Therefore, the model proposed in this paper is suitable for the application experience design of ice and snow sports equipment.

Li, Yuanjing (ORCID:000000018276647X)↗