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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2013

Potential Impact of Land Use Change on Future Regional Climate in the Southeastern U.S.: Reforestation and Crop Land Conversion

The impact of future land use and land cover changes (LULCC) on regional and global climate is one of the most challenging aspects of understanding anthropogenic climate change. We study the impacts of LULCC on regional climate in the southeastern U.S. by downscaling the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model E to the regional scale using a spectral nudging technique with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Climate-relevant meteorological fields are compared for two southeastern U.S. LULCC scenarios to the current land use/cover for four seasons of the year 2050. In this work it is shown that reforestation of cropland in the southeastern U.S. tends to warm surface air by up to 0.5 K, while replacing forested land with cropland tends to cool the surface air by 0.5 K. Processes leading to this response are investigated and sensitivity analyses conducted. The sensitivity analysis shows that results are most sensitive to changes in albedo and the stomatal resistance. Evaporative cooling of croplands also plays an important role in regional climate. Implications of LULCC on air quality are discussed. Summertime warming associated with reforestation of croplands could increase the production of some secondary pollutants, while a higher boundary layer will decrease pollutant concentrations; wintertime warming may decrease emissions from biomass burning from wood stoves

Regional climate change↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using machine learning to derive cloud condensation nuclei number concentrations from commonly available measurements

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations are an important aspect of aerosol–cloud interactions and the subsequent climate effects; however, their measurements are very limited. We use a machine learning tool, random decision forests, to develop a random forest regression model (RFRM) to derive CCN at 0.4 % supersaturation ([CCN0.4]) from commonly available measurements. The RFRM is trained on the long-term simulations in a global size-resolved particle microphysics model. Using atmospheric state and composition variables as predictors, through associations of their variabilities, the RFRM is able to learn the underlying dependence of [CCN0.4] on these predictors, which are as follows: eight fractions of PM 2.5 (NH 4 , SO 4 , NO 3, secondary organic aerosol (SOA), black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (POC), dust, and salt), seven gaseous species (NO x , NH 3 , O 3 , SO 2 , OH, isoprene, and monoterpene), and four meteorological variables (temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), precipitation, and solar radiation). The RFRM is highly robust: it has a median mean fractional bias (MFB) of 4.4 % with ≈96.33 % of the derived [CCN0.4] within a good agreement range of -60% 2.5 speciation (NH 4 , SO 4 , NO 3 , and organic carbon (OC)), NO x , O 3 , SO 2 , T, and RH, as well as [CCN0.4] are available. We modify, optimize, and retrain the developed RFRM to make predictions from 19 to 9 of these available predictors. This retrained RFRM (RFRM-ShortVars) shows a reduction in performance due to the unavailability and sparsity of measurements (predictors); it captures the [CCN0.4] variability and magnitude at SGP with ≈67.02 % of the derived values in the good agreement range. This work shows the potential of using the more commonly available measurements of PM 2.5 speciation to alleviate the sparsity of CCN number concentrations' measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1995

Research support of the WETNET Program

This study examines various aspects of the Microwave Vegetation Index (MVI). MVI is a derived signal created by differencing the spectral response of the 37 GHz horizontally and vertically polarized passive microwave signals. The microwave signal employed to derive this index is thought to be primarily influenced by vegetation structure, vegetation growth, standing water, and precipitation. The state of California is the study site for this research. Imagery from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) is used for the creation of MVI datasets analyzed in this research. The object of this research is to determine whether MVI corresponds with some quantifiable vegetation parameter (such as vegetation density) or whether the index is more affected by known biogeophysical parameters such antecedent precipitation. A secondary question associated with the above is whether the vegetation attributes that MVI is employed to determine can be more easily and accurately evaluated by other remote sensing means. An important associated question to be addressed in the study is the effect of different multi-temporal composting techniques on the derived MVI dataset. This work advances our understanding of the fundamental nature of MVI by studying vegetation as a mixture of structural types, such as forest and grassland. The study further advances our understanding by creating multitemporal precipitation datasets to compare the affects of precipitation upon MVI. This work will help to lay the groundwork for the use of passive microwave spectral information either as an adjunct to visible and near infrared imagery in areas where that is feasible or for the use of passive microwave alone in areas of moderate cloud coverage. In this research, an MVI dataset, spanning the period February 15, 1989 through April 25, 1990, has been created using National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) supplied brightness temperature data. Information from the DMSP satellite 37 GHz wavelength SSM/I sensor in both horizontal and vertical polarization has been processed using the MVI algorithm. In conjunction with the MVI algorithm a multitemporal compositing technique was used to create datasets that correspond to 14 day periods. In this technical report, Section Two contains background information on the State of California and the three MVI study sites. Section Three describes the methods used to create the MVI and independent variables datasets. Section Four presents the results of the experiment. Section Five summarizes and concludes the work.

Estes, John E.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Siberian Pine Decline and Mortality in Southern Siberian Mountains

The causes and resulting spatial patterns of Siberian pine mortality in eastern Kuznetzky Alatau Mountains, Siberia were analyzed based on satellite (Landsat, MODIS) and dendrochronology data. Climate variables studied included temperature, precipitation and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought index. Landsat data analysis showed that stand mortality was first detected in the year 2006 at an elevation of 650 m, and extended up to 900 m by the year 2012. Mortality was accompanied by a decrease in MODIS derived vegetation index (EVI).. The area of dead stands and the upper mortality line were correlated with increased drought. The uphill margin of mortality was limited by elevational precipitation gradients. Dead stands (i.e., >75% tree mortality) were located mainly on southern slopes. With respect to slope, mortality was observed within a 7 deg - 20 deg range with greatest mortality occurring on convex terrain. Tree radial incrementmeasurements correlate and were synchronous with SPEI (r sq = 0.37, r(sub s) = 80). Increasing synchrony between tree ring growth and SPEI indicates that drought has reduced the ecological niche of Siberian pine. The results also showed the primary role of drought stress on Siberian pine mortality. A secondary role may be played by bark beetles and root fungi attacks. The observed Siberian pine mortality is part of a broader phenomenon of "dark needle conifers" (DNC, i.e., Siberian pine, fir and spruce) decline and mortality in European Russia, Siberia, and the Russian Far East. All locations of DNC decline coincided with areas of observed drought increase. The results obtained are one of the first observations of drought-induced decline and mortality of DNC at the southern border of boreal forests. Meanwhile if model projections of increased aridity are correct DNC, within the southern part of its range may be replaced by drought-resistant Pinus silvestris and Larix sibirica.

tree die-off↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods to Forecast Tropospheric Ozone Levels in Delhi

Ground-level ozone is a pollutant that is harmful to urban populations, particularly in developing countries where it is present in significant quantities. It greatly increases the risk of heart and lung diseases and harms agricultural crops. This study hypothesized that, as a secondary pollutant, ground-level ozone is amenable to 24 h forecasting based on measurements of weather conditions and primary pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. We developed software to analyze hourly records of 12 air pollutants and 5 weather variables over the course of one year in Delhi, India. To determine the best predictive model, eight machine learning algorithms were tuned, trained, tested, and compared using cross-validation with hourly data for a full year. The algorithms, ranked by R2 values, were XGBoost (0.61), Random Forest (0.61), K-Nearest Neighbor Regression (0.55), Support Vector Regression (0.48), Decision Trees (0.43), AdaBoost (0.39), and linear regression (0.39). When trained by separate seasons across five years, the predictive capabilities of all models increased, with a maximum R 2 of 0.75 during winter. Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory was the least accurate model for annual training, but had some of the best predictions for seasonal training. Out of five air quality index categories, the XGBoost model was able to predict the correct category 24 h in advance 90% of the time when trained with full-year data. Separated by season, winter is considerably more predictable (97.3%), followed by post-monsoon (92.8%), monsoon (90.3%), and summer (88.9%). These results show the importance of training machine learning methods with season-specific data sets and comparing a large number of methods for specific applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring viral particle, soil, and extraction buffer physicochemical characteristics and their impacts on extractable viral communities

Viruses are expected to be pivotal members of soil ecosystems, and recent advances in viral size fraction metagenomic (viromic) approaches have improved our ability to interrogate soil viral ecology. However, viromics relies on extraction buffers to effectively desorb viral particles from the soil matrix for downstream analysis, and viral extraction efficiency could be affected by the interplay between viral particles, soils, and extraction buffer chemistry. Here, we investigated whether extraction buffer chemistry affected extractable viral community composition measured by viromics from different soil types, for both biological (samples collected 1 m apart) and technical (subsamples from the same soil homogenate) replicates. We investigated pH manipulation of protein-supplemented phosphate-buffered saline buffer (PPBS, pHs 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5) on forest, grassland and wetland soils that exhibited different soil edaphic properties, and we tested different buffer chemistries (PPBS, Carbonated Buffer, Glycine, and Saline Magnesium) on just the wetland soil. Spatial distance (i.e., biological replicate) was the primary driver of extractable viral community composition across all buffers and soils tested. Differences in viral community composition according to extraction buffer properties were only observed in the grassland technical replicates at PPBS buffer pH 4.5, and in both the wetland technical and biological replicates treated with different buffer chemistries, but the effects of buffer chemistry were secondary to spatial distance in the biological replicates. The lack of buffering capacity in the grassland soil technical replicates likely increased sorption of viral particles at pH 4.5, but neither protein composition nor isoelectric point explained this phenomenon. In conclusion, given that most soil viral ecological studies to date include sample collection over distances much farther apart than the 1-m distances considered here, results suggest that extraction buffer chemistry is likely of much lower importance than ecological considerations, such as spatial distance, in the design of future soil viral ecological investigations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Marin County Wildfires Ii: Improving Fire Suppression Modeling to Inform Fire Prevention and Suppression Decisions in Marin County, Ca

A future of increased wildfires requires greater integration of spatial analysis and local knowledge of emergency responders. We examine the application of a Potential Operational Delineations (PODs) framework for strategic pre-fire planning in Marin County. PODs are spatial units for wildfire management that combine predictive modeling and local firefighter expertise to identify potential control locations as unit boundaries and assess the difficulty of suppression within units. Additionally, this project explores the integration of road networks and social vulnerability to assess environmental justice in evacuation safety. This project constitutes a novel application of the PODs framework as it integrates expertise from Marin County senior firefighters with a Fireline Location Model (FLM) to achieve POD definition and uses a Suppression Difficulty Score (SDS) to rank each POD. The FLM uses network analysis and hydrologic modeling to identify key roads and ridgelines as boundaries and combines them with expert knowledge, in the form of workshops, to construct PODs. Once identified, PODs are classified using SDS, which includes processed inputs such as LiDAR-derived aboveground biomass, ECOSTRESS Evaporative Stress Index, land use cover type from Sentinel-2 Imagery, and a digital elevation model. Environmental justice for evacuation safety incorporated three key road metrics such as connectivity, travel area, and exit capacity, the Social Vulnerability Index from the Center for Disease Control, and cell coverage to determine a final Evacuation Difficulty Score. Results indicate a strong link between road networks as primary POD boundaries, with ridgelines and waterways as secondary and tertiary locations. Specifically, we find 78.5% of expertise-identified POD boundaries align with FLM-determined boundaries. More validation is needed to support this process; however, initial results signal a feasible framework to integrate expertise and spatial analysis in local level strategic fire planning

Wildfire modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Correlation of Electron Micrographs and ToF-SIMS for the Analysis of Organic Biomarkers in Mudstone

The spatial distribution of organics in geological samples can be used to determine when and how these organics were incorporated into the host rock. Mass spectrometry (MS) imaging can rapidly collect a large amount of data, but ions produced are mixed without discrimination, resulting in complex mass spectra that can be difficult to interpret. Here, we apply unsupervised and supervised machine learning (ML) to help interpret spectra from time-of-flight-secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) of an organic-carbon-rich mudstone of the Middle Jurassic of England (UK). It was previously shown that the presence of sterane molecular biomarkers in this sample can be detected via ToF-SIMS (Pasterski, M. J. et al., Astrobiology 2023, 23, 936). We use unsupervised ML on scanning electron microscopy–electron dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) measurements to define compositional categories based on differences in elemental abundances. We then test the ability of four ML algorithms─k-nearest neighbors (KNN), recursive partitioning and regressive trees (RPART), eXtreme gradient boost (XGBoost), and random forest (RF)─to classify the ToF-SIM spectra using (1) the categories assigned via SEM-EDS, (2) organic and inorganic labels assigned via SEM-EDS, and (3) the presence or absence of detectable steranes in ToF-SIMS spectra. In terms of predictive accuracy and balanced accuracy, KNN was the best performing model and RPART the worst. The feature importance, or the specific features of the ToF-SIM spectra used by the models to make classifications, cannot be determined for KNN, preventing posthoc model interpretation. Nevertheless, the feature importance extracted from the other models was useful for interpreting spectra. In conclusion, we determined that some of the organic ions used to classify biomarker containing spectra may be fragment ions derived from kerogen which is abundant in this mudstone sample.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global simulations of monoterpene-derived peroxy radical fates and the distributions of highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) and accretion products

Abstract. We evaluate monoterpene-derived peroxy radical (MT-RO2) unimolecular autoxidation and self- and cross-reactions with other RO2 species in the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. The formation of associated highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) and accretion products are tracked in competition with other bimolecular reactions. Autoxidation is the dominant fate up to 6–8 km for first-generation MT-RO2, which can undergo unimolecular H shifts. Reaction with NO can be a more common fate for H-shift rate constants < 0.1 s−1 or at altitudes higher than 8 km due to the imposed Arrhenius temperature dependence of unimolecular H shifts. For MT-derived HOM-RO2, generated by multistep autoxidation of first-generation MT-RO2, reaction with other RO2 species is predicted to be the major fate throughout most of the boreal and tropical forest regions, whereas reaction with NO dominates in the temperate and subtropical forests of the Northern Hemisphere. The newly added reactions result in an approximate 4 % global average decrease in HO2 and RO2, mainly due to faster self-/cross-reactions of MT-RO2, but the impact upon HO2, OH, and NOx abundances is only important in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) over portions of tropical forests. Predicted HOM concentrations in MT-rich regions and seasons can exceed total organic aerosol predicted by the standard version of the GEOS-Chem model depending on the parameters used. Comparisons to observations reveal that large uncertainties remain for key reaction parameters and processes, especially with respect to the photochemical lifetime and volatility of HOMs as well as the rates and branching of associated RO2 accretion products. Further observations and laboratory studies related to MT-RO2-derived HOMs and gas-phase RO2 accretion product formation kinetics – especially their atmospheric fate, such as gas–particle partitioning, multiphase chemistry, and net secondary organic aerosol formation – are needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exacerbated drought impacts on global ecosystems due to structural overshoot

Vegetation dynamics are affected not only by the concurrent climate but also by memory-induced lagged responses. For example, favourable climate in the past could stimulate vegetation growth to surpass the ecosystem carrying capacity, leaving an ecosystem vulnerable to climate stresses. This phenomenon, known as structural overshoot, could potentially contribute to worldwide drought stress and forest mortality but the magnitude of the impact is poorly known due to the dynamic nature of overshoot and complex influencing timescales. Here, we use a dynamic statistical learning approach to identify and characterize ecosystem structural overshoot globally and quantify the associated drought impacts. We find that structural overshoot contributed to around 11% of drought events during 1981-2015 and is often associated with compound extreme drought and heat, causing faster vegetation declines and greater drought impacts compared to non-overshoot related droughts. The fraction of droughts related to overshoot is strongly related to mean annual temperature, with biodiversity, aridity and land cover as secondary factors. These results highlight the large role vegetation dynamics play in drought development and suggest that soil water depletion due to warming-induced future increases in vegetation could cause more frequent and stronger overshoot droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Aerosols Optical and Radiative Properties in Indonesia Based on AERONET Version 3

Heterogeneity in seasonal aerosol types due to different sources, local characteristics, and meteorology lead to different optical and radiative properties from one place to another. This study analyzes the long-term averages of aerosol optical and radiative properties obtained by the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) version 3 at four sites in Indonesia representing fire prone areas (Palangka Raya, Pontianak, Jambi: 2012–2020), and urban-industrial (Bandung: 2009–2018). We examined the seasonal variation of aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom Exponent (AE), Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV), and Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) combined with meteorological parameters at these Indonesian sites. Multiple clustering techniques from different relationships among various aerosol optical and radiative parameters was employed to further study the aerosol type in respect to different seasonality. The results exhibited a distinct seasonal pattern at all sites except Bandung, whereas AOD increased owing to forest and peat fire outbreaks during the dry season. The trend in AOD annual depicts an increase in Bandung as emission from urban/industrial increases episodically, while it depicts a decrease at the three biomass burning sites. As AOD increased, Palangka Raya, Pontianak, and Jambi exhibited wider ranges of observed AE (1.2–1.8) and high FMF (>0.8) in the dry burning period (June to October). On the other hand, Bandung has more aerosol distribution in the range of FMF values 0.6–1 and AE 1–1.6, compared with other sites, suggesting contribution of complex aerosol emission from different sources and likely due to the formation of secondary aerosol production from trace gases. Palangka Raya, Pontianak, and Jambi exhibited non-absorbing characteristics, as indicated by high SSA (>0.95), high FMF, and high EAE values (1.2–1.7) with no discrepancy in seasonal patterns, implying that biomass burning aerosols in Indonesia tend to cool the atmosphere with strong scattering rather than absorbing. At Bandung, aerosols mixed with slightly absorbing and non-absorbing aerosols owing to urban and industrial emissions. This study lays a foundation for further research on the contribution of aerosol radiative forcing to climate within the complex aerosol and cloud environments in Indonesia.

Aerosol optical depth↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Volatility-Based Aerosol Phase State Predictions in the Amazon Rainforest

Organic aerosol (OA) is a complex matrix of various constituents—fresh (primary organic aerosols—POA) and aged via oxidation (secondary organic aerosols—SOA), generated from biogenic, anthropogenic, and biomass burning sources. The viscosity of OA can be critical in influencing new particle formation, reactive uptake processes that impact evaporation-growth kinetics, and the lifetime of particles in the atmosphere. We report this work utilizes a well-defined relationship between volatility and viscosity for pure compounds, which we incorporated within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled to chemistry (WRF-Chem) to simulate the phase state and viscosity of bulk OA during the dry-to-wet transition season (September–October) in the Amazon rainforest during 2014. Our simulations indicate spatial and temporal heterogeneity in aerosol phase state often not captured by global-scale models. We show the strong role of water associated with organic aerosol ($w_s$) as the dominant factor that can be used to quantitatively estimate OA viscosity. Analysis of WRF-Chem simulations across the entire atmospheric column indicates a strong inverse log-linear relationship between $w_s$ and OA viscosity with a correlation coefficient approaching 1, in the background and biomass burning-influenced conditions. At high altitudes where relative humidity (RH) and temperatures are low, our simulations indicate that OA exists in a semisolid-/solid-like phase state, consistent with previous studies. OA hygroscopicity is strongly correlated (ca. –0.8) with OA viscosity at RH ca. 30–50%, but this RH range is found mostly at low OA concentrations and the middle troposphere (ca. 6–10 km altitudes) in our simulated domain. OA hygroscopicity is uncorrelated with viscosity at higher-RH (near surface) and lower-RH (upper troposphere) regimes. At the urban site near surface, where day–night differences in RH are significant, RH is found to drive the phase state. At the background forested site near surface, where day–night RH differences are small, biomass burning-influenced OA is semisolid and a significant OA associated with background conditions is liquid-like. Simulations indicate a long tail of OA viscosity frequency distributions extending in the semisolid/solid regimes over background biogenic-influenced conditions due to the role of low-volatility OA components such as monoterpene oxidation products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

A machine learning-based fast frequency response control for a VSC-HVDC system

An HVDC system can realize a very fast frequency response to the disturbed system under a contingency because its active power control is decoupled from the frequency deviation. However, most of existing HVDC frequency control strategies are coupled with system primary frequency control and secondary frequency control. Since the traditional system frequency control is dominated by the thermal generators, the advantage of the fast response of the HVDC system is not made fully used. The development of a frequency response estimation based on a machine learning algorithm provides another approach to improve the frequency response capability of the HVDC system. Different from other frequency deviation tracking strategies, a machine learning based HVDC frequency response control can directly increase the power flow of a HVDC system by estimation of the system generator or load lost. In this paper, a fast frequency response control using a HVDC system for a large power system disturbance based on the multivariate random forest regression (MRFR) algorithm is proposed. The simulation is carried out with an integrated power system model based on the North American interconnections. The simulation results indicate that the proposed MRFR based frequency response control can significantly improve the frequency low point during an event, while stabilizing the frequency in advance.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1997

Surface Energy Heat Fluxes Using Remotely Sensed Parameters

Realistic estimates of surface energy heat fluxes are needed for the study of water and energy interactions between the land and atmosphere. The primary objective of this work is to study the estimation of surface heat energy fluxes using remote sensing derived parameters under different spatial and temporal conditions. Surface energy fluxes and remote sensing derived data from two sources were analyzed. First, we used surface heat flux, remote sensing, and ancillary data from the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP), mapped at a 1 deg. x 1 deg. grid. Second, we used NOAA AVHRR (1 km), weather station, and ancillary data to derive estimates of surface latent and sensible heat energy fluxes over a 100 sq kilometers area for three test sites: 1) First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) grassland site, Konza Prairie, Kansas; 2) Howland, Maine Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Site; and 3) Walnut Gulch, scrubland site, surrounding Tombstone, Arizona. Satellite derived estimates of land surface temperature, surface albedo, and spectral vegetation index are used in selected models to provide estimates of surface heat fluxes. Analysis of results from the 1 deg. x 1 deg. grid for North America indicated there were similar, overall correlations between sensible and latent heat energy fluxes versus remotely sensed vegetation index and ground temperature during dry and wet year conditions. However, there were significant differences in correlations between years when stratified by land cover class. Analysis of 100 km x 100 km data (1 km resolution) indicated partitioning the areas in to primary versus secondary cover, with the secondary cover comprising less than 5% of the area, significantly improved surface heat energy flux estimates.

Toll, David L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seasonal investigation of ultrafine-particle organic composition in an eastern Amazonian rainforest

Abstract. Reports on the composition of ultrafine particles (<100 nm in diameter) in the Amazon are scarce, due in part to the fact that new-particle formation has rarely been observed near ground level. Ultrafine particles near the surface have nevertheless been observed, leaving open questions regarding the sources and chemistry of their formation and growth, particularly as these vary across seasons. Here, we present measurements of the composition of ultrafine particles collected in the Tapajós National Forest (2.857° S, 54.959° W) during three different seasonal periods: 10–30 September 2016 (SEP), 18 November–23 December 2016 (DEC), and 22 May–21 June 2017 (JUN). Size-selected (5–70 nm) particles were collected daily (for 22 h each day) using an offline sampler. Samples collected during the three time periods were compiled and analyzed using liquid chromatography coupled with Orbitrap high-resolution mass spectrometry. Our findings suggest a sustained influence of isoprene organosulfate chemistry on ultrafine particles from the different periods. We present chemical evidence that indicates that biological-spore fragmentation impacted ultrafine-particle composition during the late wet season (JUN), while chemical markers for biomass burning and secondary chemistry peaked during the dry season (SEP and DEC). Higher oxidation states and degrees of unsaturation were observed for organics in the dry season (SEP and DEC), suggesting greater extents of aerosol aging. Finally, applying a volatility parameterization to the observed compounds suggests that organic sulfur species are likely key drivers of new-particle growth in the region due to their low volatility compared to other species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated parameter and process learning for hydrologic and biogeochemical modules in Earth System Models

Focus area: Primary focal area #2; secondary focal area #3: Learning about parameters and processes of land surface hydrologic and biogeochemical models in Earth System models by integrating machine learning, physics, and big data. Science challenges: How do we maximally leverage big-data observations to improve hydrobiogeochemical process description and parameterization so that such modules more realistically capture hydrologic and vegetation responses and feedbacks under the future climate? For example, how can we leverage physics, limited observations of vegetation and streamflow to better estimate evapotranspiration, and, relatedly, net primary productivity, especially for drought areas? Vegetation plays a critical role in regional and global water cycles; however, existing vegetation models have failed to predict vegetation response to droughts (McDowell & Xu, 2017) , arctic greening (Keenan & Riley, 2018) , and critical transitions between forest and savanna (Hirota et al., 2011) . These studies suggest that when we build process-based models (PBM) parameterized from regional and global plant traits, we tend to poorly describe plant adaptation and local-scale competition processes. The models and their associated parameters assigned for different regions in the world are not capturing essential heterogeneity in vegetation responses at finer spatial scales. Many parameters of the land surface models control hydrology and vegetation dynamics at the same time. The heterogeneity in vegetation response is a function of (i) plant type, (ii) plant size, (iii) competition and succession, (iv) environmental controls, and (v) local variations due to the unique ecological community that are very difficult to describe (e.g., the size of gaps resulting from fire that facilitated the coexistence of pioneering species). In the demographic models, only factors (i) and (iv) were captured, and plant types were generally described only by leaf phenology and climate zones. With current demographic models, we generally consider more traits to define plant types (i) and calibrate these traits to consider factors (ii), (iii) and (iv); however, it is substantially challenging to scale to regional and global simulations due to trait variations across space (Ali et al., 2016). Moreover, it has been noted that hillslope processes, including ridge-to-valley flow and sunny vs. shady slopes are primary organizers of water, energy, and vegetation (Clark et al., 2015; Fan et al., 2019) . Although gradual improvements in the hydrologic model component in earth system models may reduce this error (at a remarkably slow pace), the long-term, gradual impact of hydrology on plant traits are not well captured. Recent work showed that the hydrologic controls exerted by groundwater and lateral flow are primary regulators of rooting depth (Fan et al., 2017) . Such hydrologic controls have seldom been reflected in vegetation model parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large-scale genomic analyses with machine learning uncover predictive patterns associated with fungal phytopathogenic lifestyles and traits

Abstract Invasive plant pathogenic fungi have a global impact, with devastating economic and environmental effects on crops and forests. Biosurveillance, a critical component of threat mitigation, requires risk prediction based on fungal lifestyles and traits. Recent studies have revealed distinct genomic patterns associated with specific groups of plant pathogenic fungi. We sought to establish whether these phytopathogenic genomic patterns hold across diverse taxonomic and ecological groups from the Ascomycota and Basidiomycota, and furthermore, if those patterns can be used in a predictive capacity for biosurveillance. Using a supervised machine learning approach that integrates phylogenetic and genomic data, we analyzed 387 fungal genomes to test a proof-of-concept for the use of genomic signatures in predicting fungal phytopathogenic lifestyles and traits during biosurveillance activities. Our machine learning feature sets were derived from genome annotation data of carbohydrate-active enzymes (CAZymes), peptidases, secondary metabolite clusters (SMCs), transporters, and transcription factors. We found that machine learning could successfully predict fungal lifestyles and traits across taxonomic groups, with the best predictive performance coming from feature sets comprising CAZyme, peptidase, and SMC data. While phylogeny was an important component in most predictions, the inclusion of genomic data improved prediction performance for every lifestyle and trait tested. Plant pathogenicity was one of the best-predicted traits, showing the promise of predictive genomics for biosurveillance applications. Furthermore, our machine learning approach revealed expansions in the number of genes from specific CAZyme and peptidase families in the genomes of plant pathogens compared to non-phytopathogenic genomes (saprotrophs, endo- and ectomycorrhizal fungi). Such genomic feature profiles give insight into the evolution of fungal phytopathogenicity and could be useful to predict the risks of unknown fungi in future biosurveillance activities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative genome analyses suggest a hemibiotrophic lifestyle and virulence differences for the beech bark disease fungal pathogens Neonectria faginata and Neonectria coccinea

Abstract Neonectria faginata and Neonectria coccinea are the causal agents of the insect-fungus disease complex known as beech bark disease (BBD), known to cause mortality in beech forest stands in North America and Europe. These fungal species have been the focus of extensive ecological and disease management studies, yet less progress has been made toward generating genomic resources for both micro- and macro-evolutionary studies. Here, we report a 42.1 and 42.7 mb highly contiguous genome assemblies of N. faginata and N. coccinea, respectively, obtained using Illumina technology. These species share similar gene number counts (12,941 and 12,991) and percentages of predicted genes with assigned functional categories (64 and 65%). Approximately 32% of the predicted proteomes of both species are homologous to proteins involved in pathogenicity, yet N. coccinea shows a higher number of predicted mitogen-activated protein kinase genes, virulence determinants possibly contributing to differences in disease severity between N. faginata and N. coccinea. A wide range of genes encoding for carbohydrate-active enzymes capable of degradation of complex plant polysaccharides and a small number of predicted secretory effector proteins, secondary metabolite biosynthesis clusters and cytochrome oxidase P450 genes were also found. This arsenal of enzymes and effectors correlates with, and reflects, the hemibiotrophic lifestyle of these two fungal pathogens. Phylogenomic analysis and timetree estimations indicated that the N. faginata and N. coccinea species divergence may have occurred at ∼4.1 million years ago. Differences were also observed in the annotated mitochondrial genomes as they were found to be 81.7 kb (N. faginata) and 43.2 kb (N. coccinea) in size. The mitochondrial DNA expansion observed in N. faginata is attributed to the invasion of introns into diverse intra- and intergenic locations. These first draft genomes of N. faginata and N. coccinea serve as valuable tools to increase our understanding of basic genetics, evolutionary mechanisms and molecular physiology of these two nectriaceous plant pathogenic species.

Salgado-Salazar, Catalina↗