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At least 145 records · Page 8

Fiber-Optic Sensing for Earthquake Hazards Research, Monitoring, and Early Warning

The use of fiber‐optic sensing systems in seismology has exploded in the past decade. Despite an ever‐growing library of ground‐breaking studies, questions remain about the potential of fiber‐optic sensing technologies as tools for advancing if not revolutionizing earthquake‐hazards‐related research, monitoring, and early warning systems. A working group convened to explore these topics; we comprehensively examined the application of fiber optics in various aspects of earthquake hazards, encompassing earthquake source processes, crustal imaging, data archiving, and technological challenges. There is great potential for fiber‐optic systems to advance earthquake monitoring and understanding, but to fully unlock their capabilities requires continued progress in key areas of research and development, including instrument testing and validation, increased dynamic range for applications focused on larger earthquakes, and continued improvement in subsurface and source imaging methods. A key current stumbling block results from the lack of clear data archiving requirements, and we propose an initial strategy that balances data volume requirements with preserving key data for a broad range of future studies. In addition, we demonstrate the potential for fiber‐optic sensing to impact monitoring efforts by documenting the data completeness in a number of long‐term experiments. Finally, we outline the features of a instrument testing facility that would enable progress toward reliable and standardized distributed acoustic sensing data. Overcoming these current obstacles would facilitate progress in fiber‐optic sensing and unlock its potential application to a broad range of earthquake hazard problems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

WHOLESCALE - Water & Hole Observations Leverage Effective Stress Calculations And Lessen Expenses (Final Technical Report 2020 - 2024)

The WHOLESCALE acronym stands for Water & Hole Observations Leverage Effective Stress Calculations and Lessen Expenses. The goal of the WHOLESCALE project is to simulate the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of stress in the geothermal system at San Emidio in Nevada, United States. To reach this goal, the WHOLESCALE team has developed a methodology to incorporate and interpret data from four methods of measurement into a multi-physics model that couples thermal, hydrological, and mechanical (T H-M) processes. The WHOLESCALE team has applied this methodology at the San Emidio geothermal field, located ~100 km north of Reno, Nevada in the northwestern Basin and Range province. The WHOLESCALE team includes 30 individuals working at two universities, two national laboratories, and one industry partner. Two master-degree students and five post-doctoral researchers have gained professional experience and earned partial financial support via the WHOLESCALE project. The WHOLESCALE team has taken advantage of the perturbations created by changes in pumping operations during planned shutdowns in 2016, 2021, and 2022 to infer temporal changes in the state of stress in the geothermal system at San Emidio, Nevada, U.S. The WHOLESCALE results support the working hypothesis that increasing pore-fluid pressure reduces the effective normal stress acting across fault zones. During normal operations, pumping in deep production wells decreases fluid pressures and thus increases the effective normal stresses on faults, reducing microseismicity. During planned shutdowns, the cessation of production increases pore-fluid pressure and reduces effective normal stress. The WHOLESCALE products generated during the 4-year period between 2020 and 2024 include: three articles published in the open-access, peer-reviewed scientific literature, two master’s theses, 20 presentations or papers at scientific conferences, and 17 data sets available on public repositories. The WHOLESCALE project has been completed in two phases that included three performance periods separated by two Go/No-go Stage Gate Reviews. Tasks were classified by data type (i.e., Geologic Structure, Borehole, Geodesy, Hydrology, Seismology, and Modeling). The first phase of the project started July 31, 2020 and included ongoing project coordination (Task 1), a project kickoff (Task 2), analysis of existing data (Task 3), development of the initial stress model & deployment design (Task 4), and Go/No-go Decision Point #1 (Task 5). Phase II began with implementing the 2022 deployment (Task 6), followed by Go/No-go Decision Point #2 (Task 7) The remainder of Phase II consisted of analyzing data collected during deployment (Task 8), calibration of the stress model on all observations (Task 9), and the Final Review (August 23, 2024) & Reporting (Task 10).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Evidence of Nonlinear Seismic Effects in the Earth from Downhole Distributed Acoustic Sensors

Seismic velocities and elastic moduli of rocks are known to vary significantly with applied stress, which indicates that these materials exhibit nonlinear elasticity. Monochromatic waves in nonlinear elastic media are known to generate higher harmonics and combinational frequencies. Such effects have the potential to be used for broadening the frequency band of seismic sources, characterization of the subsurface, and safety monitoring of civil engineering infrastructure. However, knowledge on nonlinear seismic effects is still scarce, which impedes the development of their practical applications. To explore the potential of nonlinear seismology, we performed three experiments: two in the field and one in the laboratory. The first field experiment used two vibroseis sources generating signals with two different monochromatic frequencies. The second field experiment used a surface orbital vibrator with two eccentric motors working at different frequencies. In both experiments, the generated wavefield was recorded in a borehole using a fiber-optic distributed acoustic sensing cable. Both experiments showed combinational frequencies, harmonics, and other intermodulation products of the fundamental frequencies both on the surface and at depth. Laboratory experiments replicated the setup of the field test with vibroseis sources and showed similar nonlinear combinations of fundamental frequencies. Amplitudes of the nonlinear signals observed in the laboratory showed variation with the saturating fluid. These results confirm that nonlinear components of the wavefield propagate as body waves, are likely to generate within rock formations, and can be potentially used for reservoir fluid characterization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Report of geophysics working group

Lunar exploration program to determine surface and interior physical properties of moon - heat flow measurements, seismology, traverse logging, and instruments for deep probes and surface use

PHYSICAL PROPERTY↗

Regionalized Temperature Variations in the Upper 400 km of the Earth's Mantle

Tectonically regionalized variations in the temperature of the upper 400 km of the Earth's mantle are estimated from analysis of global seismic travel-time data catalogued by the International Seismological Centre (ISC). Seismic parameter profiles are determined from estimates of P and S velocities obtained by tau inversion, and summary phase diagrams for the olivine and pyroxene- garnet subsystems are constructed in conjunction with a thermodynamic potential formulation.

mantle seismology↗

(abstract) A Broad-Band Microseismometer for Planetary Applications

There has recently been renewed interest in the development of instrumentation for making measurements on the surface of Mars. This is due to the Mars Environmental Survey (MESUR) Mission, for which approximately 16 small, long-lived (2 to 10 years), relatively inexpensive surface stations will be deployed in a planet-wide network. This will allow the investigation of processes (such as seismology and meteorology) which require the simultaneous measurement of phenomena at many widely spaced locations on the surface over a considerable length of time. Due to the large number of vehicles involved, the mass, power, and cost of the payload will be severely constrained. A seismometer has been identified as one of the highest priority instruments in the MESUR strawman payload.

Mars seismology sensors MESUR sensor network lande↗

In-situ observation of pre-, co- and post-seismic shear slip at 1.5 km depth

Understanding the initiation and arrest of earthquakes is one of the long-standing challenges of seismology. Here we report on direct observations of borehole displacement by a meter-sized shear rupture induced by pressurization of metamorphic rock at 1.5 km depth. We observed the acceleration of sliding, followed by fast co-seismic slip and transient afterslip. Total displacements were about 7, 5.5 and 9.5 micrometers, respectively for the observed pre-slip, co-seismic slip and afterslip. The observed pre-slip lasted about 0.4 seconds. Co-seismic slip was recorded by the 1 kHz displacement recording and a 12-component array of 3-C accelerometers sampled at 100 kHz. The observed afterslip is consistent with analytical models of arrest in a velocity-strengthening region and subsequent stress relaxation. < p >The observed slip vector agrees with the activation of a bedding plane within the phyllite, which is corroborated by relocated seismic events that were observed during the later stages of the injection experiment.

Schoenball, Martin↗

Real-time and post-hoc compression for data from Distributed Acoustic Sensing

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is an emerging sensing technology that records the strain-rate along fiber optic cables at high spatial and temporal resolution. This technique is becoming a popular tool in seismology, hydrology, and other subsurface monitoring applications. However, due to the large coverage (10’s of km) and high density of measurements (1m spacing at 100’s of Hz), a DAS installation could produce terabytes of data records per day. Because many DAS instruments are deployed in remote locations, this large data size poses significant challenges to its transfer and storage. In this paper, we explore lossless compression methods to reduce the storage requirement in both real-time and post-hoc scenarios. Here we propose a two-stage compression method to improve the compression ratio and compression speed. This two-stage compression method could reduce the storage requirement by 40%, which is 20% more than other lossless methods, such as ZSTD. We demonstrate that the compression method could complete its operation well before the DAS instrument needs to output the next file, making it suitable for real-time DAS acquisition. We also implement a parallel compression method for a post-hoc scenario and demonstrate that our method could effectively utilize a parallel computer. With 256 CPU cores, our parallel compression method achieves the speed of 26GB/second.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Demonstrating the viability of Lagrangian in situ reduction on supercomputers

Performing exploratory analysis and visualization of large-scale time-varying computational science applications is challenging due to inaccuracies that arise from under-resolved data. In recent years, Lagrangian representations of the vector field computed using in situ processing are being increasingly researched and have emerged as a potential solution to enable exploration. However, prior works have offered limited estimates of the encumbrance on the simulation code as they consider “theoretical” in situ environments. Further, the effectiveness of this approach varies based on the nature of the vector field, benefitting from an in-depth investigation for each application area. With this study, an extended version of Sane et al. (2021), we contribute an evaluation of Lagrangian analysis viability and efficacy for simulation codes executing at scale on a supercomputer. We investigated previously unexplored cosmology and seismology applications as well as conducted a performance benchmarking study by using a hydrodynamics mini-application targeting exascale computing. Here, to inform encumbrance, we integrated in situ infrastructure with simulation codes, and evaluated Lagrangian in situ reduction in representative homogeneous and heterogeneous HPC environments. To inform post hoc accuracy, we conducted a statistical analysis across a range of spatiotemporal configurations as well as a qualitative evaluation. Additionally, our study contributes cost estimates for distributed-memory post hoc reconstruction. In all, we demonstrate viability for each application — data reduction to less than 1% of the total data via Lagrangian representations, while maintaining accurate reconstruction and requiring under 10% of total execution time in over 90% of our experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Time domain probabilistic seismic risk analysis using ground motion prediction equations of Fourier amplitude spectra

Modeling of Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) of seismic motions has gained much attention in engineering seismology. In the past few years, several ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and inter-frequency correlation structure of FAS have been established. Due to many preferable characteristics of FAS, probabilistic seismic hazard/risk analysis is rapidly changing from ergodic, spectrum acceleration Sa(T 0 )-based approach to non-ergodic, site-specific, FAS-based approach. This paper presents time domain intrusive framework for probabilistic seismic risk analysis using GMPE of FAS. Herein, methodology for time domain stochastic ground motion modeling based on GMPEs of FAS is presented in some detail. The simulated uncertain motions are modeled as a random process and represented by polynomial chaos Karhunen-Loève expansion. The random process excitations are further propagated into the uncertain structural system using Galerkin stochastic finite element method (SFEM). Probabilistic evolution of structural response is solved, and such solution is used to develop seismic risk for any damage state. The presented framework is illustrated through seismic risk analysis of a four-story building subjected to possible earthquakes from two strike slip faults. The influences of the epistemic uncertainties in source stress drop Δσ and site attenuation κ0 on seismic risk are investigated. The need for non-ergodic seismic risk analysis with source-specific and site specific characterizations is emphasized.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Spatiotemporal Evolution of Granular Microslip Precursors to Laboratory Earthquakes

Laboratory earthquake experiments provide important observational constraints for our understanding of earthquake physics. Here we leverage continuous waveform data from a network of piezoceramic sensors to study the spatial and temporal evolution of microslip activity during a shear experiment with synthetic fault gouge. We combine machine learning techniques with ray theoretical seismology to detect, associate, and locate tens of thousands of microslip events within the gouge layer. Microslip activity is concentrated near the center of the system but is highly variable in space and time. While microslip activity rate increases as failure approaches, the spatiotemporal evolution can differ substantially between stick-slip cycles. These results illustrate that even within a single, well-constrained laboratory experiment, the dynamics of earthquake nucleation can be highly complex.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Stochastic Inversion of Gaussian Random Media Using Transverse Coherence Functions for Reflected Waves: Theory and Method

The transverse coherence functions (TCFs) of phase and amplitude fluctuations of a seismic wave are powerful to estimate the spatial distribution, length scales, and strength of random heterogeneities. However, TCFs have been formulated for transmitted waves only, not for reflected waves. In this paper, we derive reflection TCFs for Gaussian random media. Furthermore, we propose to invert for Gaussian random media using the reflection TCFs based on the grid search. We validate the new reflection TCF formulas using 2D finite-difference numerical experiments. The numerical example also illustrates the feasibility and efficiency of the inversion. The stochastic inversion using reflected waves can be used in both exploration and global seismology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Predicts the Timing and Shear Stress Evolution of Lab Earthquakes Using Active Seismic Monitoring of Fault Zone Processes

Abstract Machine learning (ML) techniques have become increasingly important in seismology and earthquake science. Lab‐based studies have used acoustic emission data to predict time‐to‐failure and stress state, and in a few cases, the same approach has been used for field data. However, the underlying physical mechanisms that allow lab earthquake prediction and seismic forecasting remain poorly resolved. Here, we address this knowledge gap by coupling active‐source seismic data, which probe asperity‐scale processes, with ML methods. We show that elastic waves passing through the lab fault zone contain information that can predict the full spectrum of labquakes from slow slip instabilities to highly aperiodic events. The ML methods utilize systematic changes in P‐wave amplitude and velocity to accurately predict the timing and shear stress during labquakes. The ML predictions improve in accuracy closer to fault failure, demonstrating that the predictive power of the ultrasonic signals improves as the fault approaches failure. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between the ultrasonic parameters and fault slip rate, and in turn, the systematically evolving real area of contact and asperity stiffness allow the gradient boosting algorithm to “learn” about the state of the fault and its proximity to failure. Broadly, our results demonstrate the utility of physics‐informed ML in forecasting the imminence of fault slip at the laboratory scale, which may have important implications for earthquake mechanics in nature.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The First Detection of an Earthquake From a Balloon Using Its Acoustic Signature

Extreme temperature and pressure conditions on the surface of Venus present formidable technological challenges against performing ground-based seismology. Efficient coupling between the Venusian atmosphere and the solid planet theoretically allows the study of seismically generated acoustic waves using balloons in the upper atmosphere, where conditions are far more clement. However, earthquake detection from a balloon has never been demonstrated. We present the first detection of an earthquake from a balloon-borne microbarometer near Ridgecrest, CA in July 2019 and include a detailed analysis of the dependence of seismic infrasound, as measured from a balloon on earthquake source parameters, topography, and crustal and atmospheric structure. Our comprehensive analysis of seismo-acoustic phenomenology demonstrates that seismic activity is detectable from a high-altitude platform on Earth, and that Rayleigh wave-induced infrasound can be used to constrain subsurface velocities, paving the way for the detection and characterization of such signals on Venus.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Infrasound From a Buried Chemical Explosion Recorded on a Balloon in the Lower Stratosphere

Abstract Infrasound waveforms generated by natural and anthropogenic phenomena contain important clues about the size and nature of the event. We show that sensors on balloons in the lower stratosphere can record faithful representations of the near‐source acoustic wave field at unprecedented range. The acoustic signature of a buried chemical explosion recorded at a range of 56 km and an altitude of 21.8 km was nearly identical to that recorded on the ground 0.5 km from the epicenter, but absent on a ground sensor located 46 km away. Our results demonstrate that balloon‐borne infrasound techniques greatly increase the range at which well‐preserved acoustic representations of near‐source physics can be acquired, and that their propagation is simple to model. Our work has implications for monitoring remote regions of the earth for explosions, volcanic eruptions, and other phenomena. It also supports the prospect of balloon‐based infrasound seismology on Venus.

Bowman, Daniel C.↗