DOE OSTI2012
Embedded arms-control-sensors provide a powerful new paradigm for managing compliance with future nuclear weapons treaties, where deployed warhead numbers will be reduced to 1000 or less. The CONOPS (Concept of Operations) for use with these sensors is a practical tool with which one may help define design parameters, including size, power, resolution, communications, and physical structure. How frequently must data be acquired and must a human be present? Will such data be acquired for only stored weapons or will it be required of deployed weapons as well? Will tactical weapons be subject to such monitoring or will only strategic weapons apply? Which data will be most crucial? Will OSI's be a component of embedded sensor data management or will these sensors stand alone in their data extraction processes? The problem space is massive, but can be constrained by extrapolating to a reasonable future treaty regime and examining the bounded options this scenario poses. Arms control verification sensors, embedded within the warhead case or aeroshell, must provide sufficient but not excessively detailed data, confirming that the item is a nuclear warhead and that it is a particular warhead without revealing sensitive information. Geolocation will be provided by an intermediate transceiver used to acquire the data and to forward the data to a central processing location. Past Chain-of-Custody projects have included such devices and will be primarily responsible for adding such indicators in the future. For the purposes of a treaty regime a TLI will be verified as a nuclear warhead by knowledge of (a) the presence and mass of SNM, (b) the presence of HE, and (c) the reporting of a unique tag ID. All of these parameters can be obtained via neutron correlation measurements, Raman spectroscopy, and fiber optic grating fabrication, respectively. Data from these sensors will be pushed out monthly and acquired nearly daily, providing one of several verification layers in depth, including on-site inspections, NTM, declarations, and semi-annual BCC meetings. Human intervention will not be necessary. The sheer numbers, small size, and wide distribution of warhead TLIs will mandate the added level of remote monitoring that Embedded Sensors can provide. This multilayer protection will limit the need to increase the frequency of OSIs, by adding confidence that declared TLIs remain as declared and that no undeclared items enter the regime without the other States Party's knowledge. Acceptance of Embedded arms control Sensor technologies will require joint development by all State's Parties involved. Principles of operation and robustness of technologies must be individually evaluated to sustain confidence in the strength of this system against attack. Weapons designers must be assured that these sensors will in no way impact weapon performance and operation, will not affect weapons security and safety, and will have a neutral impact upon weapon system surety. Each State's Party will need to conduct an in depth review of their weapons lifecycle to determine where moves may be reduced to minimize vulnerabilities and where random selection may be used to minimize the ability to make undeclared changes. In the end Verification is a political measure, not a technical one. If the potential users can gain sufficient confidence in the application of Embedded arms control Sensors, they could constitute the final layer of glue to hold together the next Nuclear Arms Control agreement.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗