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DOE OSTI2022

Data from: "Warming and the dependence of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) establishment on summer soil moisture within and above its current elevation range"

This data package contains data that were used for analysis in “Warming and the dependence of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) establishment on summer soil moisture within and above its current elevation range”, by Moyes et al. 2013. All data collection and field research were completed on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA.This data package contains nine comma-separated-values (.csv) files, one text (.txt) file, and two zipped seedling folders that were used for leaf area analysis. One zipped folder contains 468 .jpg photographs of seedlings, and the second contains 468 corresponding Image J-processed .jpg images that include silhouette leaf area values. .csv and .txt files can be opened using any compatible simple text-editor software such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows); .csv’s can also be opened using R and Microsoft Excel. Image files can be opened using Preview (Mac) and Photos (Windows). In addition, there are a total of 31 Microsoft Excel files: three .xlsx files, and 28 raw Li-Cor output .xls files. This data user’s guide is available in .pdf format, and can be opened using Adobe Acrobat Reader, or any other compatible file viewing software. Geospatial data showing field site locations are also included in the archive for use and reference. There are two geospatial formats in this archive: ESRI shapefiles (.shp) and keyhole markup-language (.kml) files. Both file types contain bounding box information, with the former being polygons, and the latter containing corner coordinates for each site. ESRI shapefiles can be opened using any geospatial software compatible with the file type (such as ESRI’s ArcGIS suite and QGIS), and .kml files are compatible with Google Earth and Google Maps.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Continued changes in climate are projected to alter the geographic distributions of plant species, in part by affecting where individuals can establish from seed. We tested the hypothesis that warming promotes uphill redistribution of subalpine tree populations by reducing cold limitation at high elevation and enhancing drought stress at low elevation. We seeded limber pine (Pinus flexilis) into plots with combinations of infrared heating and water addition treatments, at sites positioned in lower subalpine forest, the treeline ecotone, and alpine tundra. In 2010, first-year seedlings were assessed for physiological performance and survival over the snow-free growing season. Seedlings emerged in midsummer, about 5–8 weeks after snowmelt. Low temperature was not observed to limit seedling photosynthesis or respiration between emergence and October, and thus experimental warming did not appear to reduce cold limitation at high elevation. Instead, gas exchange and water potential from all sites indicated a prevailing effect of summer moisture stress on photosynthesis and carbon balance. Infrared heaters raised soil growing degree days (base 5 °C, p < 0.001) and August–September mean soil temperature (p < 0.001). Despite marked differences in vegetation cover and meteorological conditions across sites, volumetric soil moisture content (θ) at 5–10 cm below 0.16 and 0.08 m^3 m^(−3) consistently corresponded with moderate and severe indications of drought stress in midday stem water potential, stomatal conductance, photosynthesis, and respiration. Seedling survival was greater in watered plots than in heated plots (p = 0.01), and negatively related to soil growing degree days and duration of exposure to θ < 0.08 m^3 m^(−3) in a stepwise linear regression model (p < 0.0001). We concluded that seasonal moisture stress and high soil surface temperature imposed a strong limitation to limber pine seedling establishment across a broad elevation gradient, including at treeline, and that these limitations are likely to be enhanced by further climate warming.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Maintenance log:Amended file name error in Data User's Guide May 19 2022

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Assisted Gap-Filled Discharge Data for the East River Community Watershed, Colorado, for Water Years 2014-2021

This dataset contains a collection of machine learning assisted gap-filled discharge data created for all discharge stations across the East River Watershed, Colorado. This data was generated by using raw discharge data collected by Rosemary Carroll, and conducting a random forest machine learning analysis to gap-fill discharge data across all years at the hourly time level. Discharge data with gaps creates problems for analysis of measured and modeled fluxes of carbon and nitrogen exported out of each sub-watershed. Gap-filled data is also required as an input to surface water models, which helps to address our main research question related to how snowmelt timing impacts the timing and magnitude of nitrogen exports. Data is provided in one csv file.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model files for estimating snow dynamics and stable water isotopes across the East River, CO.

A coupled hydrologic and snowpack stable water isotope model is used to assesses controls on isotopic inputs across the East River, Colorado, a large, mountainous basin. The hydrologic model uses the semi-empirical, spatially distributed and publicly available U.S. Geological Survey numerical code Precipitation-Modelling Runoff System (PRMS). Water and energy are tracked daily through the atmosphere, canopy and subsurface at a 100-m grid resolution. The isotope mass balance model follows previous work by Ala-aho et al. (2017) to track stable isotopes entering the soil system as snowmelt or rain. Water stores and fluxes needed for the isotope model use hydrologic model output for each timestep and model modeled grid location. This data package provides all files related to the hydrologic model (executable, input and output files), the isotopic model calibration and the historic isotopic model (water years 2015-2020). The isotope model source code and executable are provided. The file "readme.txt" includes information on the file structure, steps to run the model, and description of included folders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data from: “Significant stream chemistry response to temperature variations in a high-elevation mountain watershed”

High-elevation mountain regions, central to global freshwater supply, are experiencing more rapid warming than low-elevation locations. High-elevation streams are therefore potentially critical indicators for earth system and water chemistry response to warming. Here we present concerted hydroclimatic and biogeochemical data from Coal Creek, Colorado in the central Rocky Mountains at elevations of 2700 to 3700 m, where air temperatures have increased by about 2 °C since 1980. We analyzed water chemistry every other day from 2016 to 2019. Water chemistry data indicate distinct responses of different solutes to inter-annual hydroclimatic variations. Specifically, the concentrations of solutes from rock weathering are stable inter-annually. Solutes that are active in soils, including dissolved organic carbon, vary dramatically, with double to triple peak concentrations occurring during snowmelt and in warm years. We advocate for consistent and persistent monitoring of high elevation streams to record early glimpse of earth surface response to warming.1) Coal Creek stream were sampled and measured to answer the question if there is a significant stream chemistry response to climate change in high-elevation watershed2) The file contains data regarding discharge, water temperature and stream chemistry data for 2016-2019 year. Stream chemistry includes dissolved organic and inorganic carbon, chloride, nutrients, cations. The data collection efforts were carried out by the DOE-funded "Advancing a Watershed Hydro-Biogeochemical Theory: Linking Water Travel Time and Reaction Rates Under Changing Climate" project and Watershed Function SFA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Leaf Mass Area, Leaf Carbon and Nitrogen Content, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2017

Leaf mass per area (LMA), leaf carbon and nitrogen content of vegetation (Petasites frigidus) within warming chambers and paired control plots. See related datasets for plant physiology, phenology and environmental conditions. The files included in this data package are in .csv format, and include 2 data files and 4 metadata files.These data were collected in 2017 as part of a series of single-season warming experiments on tundra vegetation on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. A different plant species was targeted each year, over four experimental years from 2017–2021. Each year, five warming chambers and paired ambient control plots were deployed from around the time of snowmelt in mid-June through to mid-September. Average seasonal warming of 3–4°C was achieved using Zero Power Warming (ZPW) chambers (Lewin et al, 2017). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Leaf Mass Area, Leaf Carbon and Nitrogen Content, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2018

Leaf mass per area (LMA), leaf carbon and nitrogen content of vegetation (Arctagrostis latifolia, Petasites frigidus) within warming chambers and paired control plots. Samples include gas exchange measurement leaves and an end of season bulk harvest. The files included in this data package are in .csv format, and include 2 data files and 4 metadata files. See related datasets for plant physiology, phenology and environmental conditions of these samples. These data were collected in 2018 as part of a series of single-season warming experiments on tundra vegetation on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO), Utqiagvik, Alaska. A different plant species was targeted each year, over four experimental years from 2017–2021. Each year, five warming chambers and paired ambient control plots were deployed from around the time of snowmelt in mid-June through to mid-September. Average seasonal warming of 3–4°C was achieved using Zero Power Warming (ZPW) chambers (Lewin et al, 2017).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Maps of land surface phenology derived from PlanetScope data, 2018-2022, Teller, Kougarok, and Council, Seward Peninsula

Remote sensing maps of land surface phenology derived from PlanetScope (Planet Team, 2017) normalized differential greenness index (NDGI; Yang et al., 2019) time series data. These maps include four phenological timing metric - start of spring (SOS), end of spring (EOS), start of fall (SOF), and end of fall (EOF), corresponding NDGI value at the four phenological timings, and annual maximum and minimum NDGI. This package includes maps for Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment Arctic (NGEE Arctic)’s Teller Mile Marker (MM) 27, Kougarok MM64, and Council MM 71 watersheds. Maps of 5 years from 2018 to 2022 are included in this dataset. The map data and metadata are provided as image (ENVI) and text (*.txt, *hdr) formats. Additional supporting map quicklooks are provided as GIS *.kml files. These datasets are provided in support of Yang et al., (In revision) “Fine-scale Landscape Characteristics, Vegetation Composition, and Snowmelt Timing Control Phenological Heterogeneity across Arctic Tundra Landscapes”The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-xDC NEON Dakota Coteau Field School (DCFS)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xDC NEON Dakota Coteau Field School (DCFS). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xDC NEON Dakota Coteau Field School (DCFS) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Dakota Coteau Field School (DCFS) and Prairie Lake (PRLA) field sites are co-located in an agricultural area used primarily for cattle grazing, just a few miles east of the Woodworth and Prairie Pothole sites at the Chase Lake National Wildlife Refuge. DCFS covers 7.8 km2 (3 square miles) of grazing land in Stutsman County, ND, between the tiny communities of Pingree and Woodworth. The population here is sparse, but the land has been transformed by agricultural activities over the last 150 years. The field site has been used only for grazing, but other land in the surrounding area has been converted to corn and soybean production. DCFS is located in an area known as the "Prairie Pothole Region," a band of tall and mixed prairie that stretches across parts of North and South Dakota, Minnesota and the Canadian provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Historically, this area supported tall to mid-height prairie grasses, including blue gamma and green needlegrass. The land here is pocked by thousands of depressions left behind by glaciers 10,000 years ago, resulting in a series of small lakes and wetland areas known as prairie potholes. These potholes receive most of their water from spring snowmelt and are a primary source of groundwater recharge for the region. NEON data will help researchers monitor the effects of climate change on the Northern Plains ecosystem. Over the last 30 years, the hydrological cycle in the plains has changed dramatically, trending wetter overall and diverging from the historical ten-year cycles. Temperatures are also rising, leading to changes in plant phenology cycles and species distribution that could negatively impact migratory bird populations and other animal species.

Network), NEON (National Ecological Observatory↗
DOE OSTI2024

wmpy-power: A Python package for process-based regional hydropower simulation

Hydropower is an important source of renewable energy in many parts of the world. The generation potential for a hydropower facility can vary greatly due to fluctuations in precipitation and snowmelt patterns impacting streamflow and reservoir storage. Human activities such as irrigation, manufacturing, and hydration can also influence water availability at nearby and downstream facilities. wmpy-power--the hydropower model described in this work--is process-based, leveraging explicit reservoir storage and release data to address impacts on hydropower from climate change and human adaptive behaviors to inform long-term planning and resource-adequacy considerations.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Watershed response of the Feather River Basin, California, United States of America to future climate changes

Increasing mean annual temperatures under climate change are expected to reduce seasonal snowpack, increase evapotranspiration (ET), and alter summer baseflow in headwater watersheds worldwide. Strong regional variability in hydrologic responses highlights the need for catchment-scale, physically based models to assess future flood risk and water availability. This study examines climate-driven changes in the hydrologic response of the Upper Feather River watershed in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. Four priority climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to evaluate future hydrologic responses of the watershed. Hydrologic processes are simulated using an objectively calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model for a historical baseline (1986–2005) and a future period 2070–2099), driven by observed and projected precipitation and temperature. Results indicate a declining contribution of snowfall to annual precipitation, with peak snowfall and water yield shifting 1–3 months earlier. Long-term annual maximum flows are projected to increase considerably, whereas low-flow responses are mixed, with both increases and decreases projected by the end of the century. These findings highlight the need for adaptive watershed management to enhance flood protection, water storage, and drought resilience. Future water resource planning should also account for one-to-three-month shifts in peak water yield and surface runoff due to changes in snowmelt timing and a lower snowfall-to-rainfall ratio under climate change. The modeling framework and insights are transferable to other snow-dominated headwater watersheds experiencing climate-driven change.

Tigabu, T [UC Davis]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Controlling Processes of Complex Systems

An environmental model consists of multiple process level sub-models, and each sub-model represents a process that is key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this project develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods with variance-based global sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in process models and parameters. The new method yields three process sensitivity indices. The first one is called first-order process sensitivity index, and it is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance. Evaluating the index is computationally expensive, because it relies in a Monte Carlo scheme that requires thousands and even millions of model executions. To reduce computational cost, this project develops a computationally efficient, quasi Monte Carlo method, and this method is presented in Chapter 2 of this report with and a numerical example for demonstration. The numerical example shows that the results of the quasi Monte Carlo method are substantially close to those of the full Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost of the quasi Monte Carlo method is only 0.7% of that of the full Monte Carlo method. The second index is called total-effect process sensitivity index, and it measures interactions between different processes. Therefore, this sensitivity index includes the first-order process sensitivity index, and can be used to identify influential processes. On the other hand, the total-effect process sensitivity index can also be used to screen non-influential processes. This is demonstrated by two numerical examples using the Sobol-G* functions and groundwater flow models that consider recharge process, geological process, and snowmelt process. The numerical examples shows that the total-effect process sensitivity index is more informative than the first-order process sensitivity. The derivation of the process sensitivity index and the numerical examples are discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents two computationally efficient methods for screening non-influential processes to exclude them from further investigation. The two methods are the multi-model difference-based sensitivity (MMDS) analysis method, which can be implemented using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The second one is the implementation of MMDS method using a binning method. The numerical example for the Sobol-G* function indicates the two methods are capable of identifying non-influential models, and the numerical examples for the groundwater flow and reactive transport show that the two methods are effective for groundwater problems. However, it should be noted that the two methods are numerical approximations, and they can only be used for screening non-influential processes, not for ranking importance of system processes. All the sensitivity analysis methods are implemented by developing python codes, and the codes are in a software called SAMMPY: a python package for process sensitivity analysis under multiple models. The SAMMPY design and structure are discussed in Chapter 5, and the package is released to the public for free download.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Science-integrated Artificial-intelligence for Flooding and precipitation Extremes (SAFE)

A grand challenge in hydrologic science is to understand why signals of climate change and variability, which are often visible in precipitation extremes at aggregate scales, are not consistently observed in the case of extreme flooding. However, a solution to this challenge may prove elusive unless the water cycle is viewed in an integrative manner. Thus, for riverine flooding, while Hortonian (infiltration excess) runoff may have stronger correlation with precipitation extremes and hence perhaps to warming trends or climate oscillators, Dunne (saturation excess) runoff may have a more complex relationships with time series of precipitation and with evaporation and transpiration, but rain-on-snow and snowmelt events may depend on land-surface and atmospheric temperatures. Atmospheric rivers and tropical cyclones lead to precipitation or flooding and are impacted by climate. Flooding assessments need to consider long-term baselines, evolving risk factors, coupled natural-human systems, and novel adaptation such as nature-inspired design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Space and Time Dynamics of Transpiration in the East River Watershed: Biotic and Abiotic Controls

Alpine forests have important impacts on water resources by affecting how much of the precipitation that falls on a watershed is routed to streamflow or returned to the atmosphere as transpiration – so-called “green water”. In many of the high-altitude watersheds that supply critical water resources to the western US, it remains a challenge to predict how much water forests will utilize limiting the ability to predict both short and long term information on downstream water resources. The uncertainty emerges because transpiration varies between tree species, across landscapes and over time in ways that cannot readily be predicted from physically-based models for evaporation. In this project, we utilized a technique called sap flux to measure the rate of water use for three common species of fir, spruce and aspen distributed across a hillslope in the East River Watershed from 2019-2021. We also made ~weekly measurements of the concentration of stable isotopic tracers in transpiration to understand not only how much water was being used but whether it originated from summer rain or snowmelt. Firstly, our results show that the species tend to use similar amounts of total water but they achieve this similar cumulative water flux both by using water at different times of the year and by using different water sources. This shows the importance of including species-level information into models used to make seasonal streamflow predictions. Secondly, our results show that trees lower on the hillslope use older waters all through the summer whereas trees higher on the hillslope rely more heavily on recent summer rain. This means trees lower on the hillslope are less sensitive to year-to-year changes in summer climate. Lastly, we found that sites with dense forest stands displayed the largest amounts of year-to-year changes in transpiration and thus these high localized spots in the watershed are the primary drivers of changes in “green water” use. The results provide an unprecedented spatial and temporal picture of forest water use that confirms a number of fundamental hypotheses on hillslope ecohydrology that had not previously been tested against observations. Predictions of streamflow that will benefit from this work are highly valuable for agriculture management, flood control and ecological restoration efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Science Area 1: Standard Award: Model-Data Fusion to Examine Multiscale Dynamical Controls on Snow Cover and Critical Zone Moisture Inputs (Final Report)

In many mountain watersheds of the world, seasonal snowpacks play an important role as natural reservoirs of water. Seasonal snowpacks accumulate water during cold, wet winter months that subsequently melts. Downstream communities depend on water from melting seasonal snowpacks to support agricultural, industrial, and municipal water needs. Rapidly melting snowpacks can also present a flooding hazard, particularly if snowpacks melt at rates faster than anticipated and where adequate reservoir capacity is unavailable to buffer river flows associated with melt. The spatial and temporal dynamics of snow accumulation and melt also play an important role in supporting upland ecosystems in mountain landscapes. Snowmelt provides soil moisture that enable terrestrial ecosystem productivity and exert control on soil microorganisms that play important roles in global carbon cycles. Climate warming is gradually decreasing the amount of precipitation in mountain watersheds arriving as snow, presenting potentially profound disruptions to mountain ecosystems, as well as downstream delivery of water. The overarching goal of this project was to understand how interactions between the near-surface atmosphere and surface topography control the input, accumulation, retention, and release of water from mountain snowpacks. Over a 5-year period, this project pursued an approach combining high-resolution regional climate modeling, satellite and airborne remote sensing data, and ground-based observations to develop and analyze benchmark datasets to address overarching science questions and hypotheses. Key products include a continuous, long-term, high spatiotemporal resolution (1 km/1 hr) dataset characterizing key climate variables in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The dataset included historical estimates of precipitation, temperature, humidity, solar and longwave radiation, and wind speeds. Additionally, the project developed a 20+ year long, 30 m spatial, daily temporal multi-sensor dataset characterizing snow presence/absence in the East/Taylor River watersheds in the Central Rocky Mountains of Colorado. The project supported training of 1 postdoctoral scholar, 1 Ph.D. student, and 1 M.S. student.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

NSA Site Science: Use of ARM Observations from Northern Alaska to Evaluate and Improve Prediction Capabilities

The Arctic is warming at a rate nearly double that of the rest of the planet, leading to profound changes in atmospheric, oceanic, and ice processes. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility has played a significant role in Arctic research, operating observatories in Alaska's North Slope for over 25 years. These observatories provide a rich, and wide-reaching dataset that offers insight into atmospheric processes in northern Alaska. This report details the results of a nine-year research project (2015–2024) supported by the DOE Atmospheric Systems Research (ASR) program, that leverages data from ARM’s deployment of observing facilities at Utqiaġvik (known as the North Slope of Alaska, or NSA, site) and Oliktok Point, Alaska. The project was conducted in two phases: - Phase 1 (2015–2019): Focused on understanding key atmospheric processes at Oliktok Point, including cloud formation, high-latitude precipitation, aerosol-cloud interactions, and cloud properties. - Phase 2 (2019–2024): Extended the research to the broader North Slope region, using data from both Oliktok Point and Utqiaġvik. Topics explored included surface energy budgets, atmospheric stability, ice nucleation processes, and microphysics in Arctic clouds. The project resulted in numerous research products, including 50 peer-reviewed publications and dissertations, 169 presentations, and 10 data products. These products cover a variety of topics, including: - Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties: Arctic clouds play a crucial role in energy transfer, and accurate representation in models is critical. The study explored cloud transitions, ice crystal shapes, and dual-wavelength radar data to understand ice crystal habits and size distributions. - Aerosol Properties and Processes: The team examined aerosol sources in the Arctic, including industrial emissions and natural sources. Observations showed significant spatial gradients in aerosol concentrations due to human activities and wildfire smoke. The influence of aerosols on cloud formation and the surface energy budget was also assessed. - Aerosol-Cloud Interactions: Research revealed that aerosols might suppress cloud ice production, affecting cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. The impact of local industrial emissions on cloud properties was also investigated. - Contextualizing the North Slope of Alaska in the context of the broader Arctic: To understand broader trends, the project evaluated large-scale circulation patterns and the influence of weather systems on the Arctic. Studies indicated that large-scale processes play a significant role in temperature patterns and the timing of snowmelt. - Advancing ARM Observational and Modeling Capabilities: The project developed new radar data products and advanced measurement techniques, including clutter mitigation and drizzle detection. Uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and tethered balloon systems (TBS) were deployed to gather detailed atmospheric data. Additionally, the project supported 10 early career scientists, providing training and mentorship to undergraduate interns, graduate students, postdoctoral researchers, and early career researchers. These efforts contributed to the advancement of ARM research capabilities and fostered a new generation of scientists skilled in Arctic atmospheric research. Ultimately, this ASR-supported project has provided valuable insights into Arctic atmospheric processes and their broader climate implications. Recommendations for future work include continuing support for long-term observing at Arctic locations to foster additional research, further exploration of aerosol-cloud interactions and the potential impacts of enhanced industrialization of the Arctic, and expanded use of uncrewed systems to gather data in this remote and harsh environment. Additionally, the data products developed by this work, and the data products developed through the ARM infrastructure, leave a treasure-trove of additional information that should be explored for many years to come to gain additional insight into physical processes in the Arctic atmosphere that drive the rapid changes occurring in at high latitudes and their global impact.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Relationship of Hydrology in the Green River to Colorado Pikeminnow Populations

The Federally listed Colorado Pikeminnow (CP) (Ptychocheilus Lucius) has been declining in the Green River Basin over the last 20 years. Muth et al. (2000) recommended flows and temperatures to benefit endangered fish species downstream of Flaming Gorge Dam on the Green River. The recommendations identified a range of flows during the base flow period (flows that occur after the annual snowmelt runoff period, usually from early summer to the following spring) that were intended to benefit CP. The recommendations indicated that the mean flow for the summer–winter period should be established each year on the basis of anticipated hydrologic conditions, but adjustments could be made if hydrologic conditions change. Flow should gradually decline from peak flow to base flow, with the base flow reached by early to middle summer (depending on hydrologic conditions) and maintained through February. The rate of decline should depend on rates of decline in Yampa River flows and the recommended rates of decline for dam releases. No specific recommendations were made for base flow variation in Reach 1, but variation around the annual mean base flow should be restricted to achieve recommended levels of variation in Reach 2 (middle Green River) (Table 5.5 in Muth et al. 2000). Implementation of the flow and temperature recommendations served as the proposed action for an EIS on Flaming Gorge Dam operations. A Biological Assessment of the impacts on endangered species of implementing the recommendations was prepared and a Biological Opinion that called for development of a study plan to examine the effects of implementation. Projects to address this evaluation were identified in the Green River Study Plan and have been conducted since then. The purpose of the Study Plan was to identify and recommend to the Recovery Program those monitoring or research projects necessary for implementation and evaluation of the flow and temperature recommendations. Those projects included studies to evaluate the anticipated effects of implementing the recommendations (including potential adverse effects identified in the 2006 Biological Opinion) and studies to examine recognized uncertainties of the recommendations. A new recovery program summer base flow study plan was approved in September of 2020 to evaluate stable and elevated summer base flows below Flaming Gorge Dam intended to benefit CP spawning and rearing success. Anecdotal observations suggest CP production may have been higher in years prior to flow restrictions for endangered fish. Based on long-term CP monitoring data in the Green River, Bestgen and Hill (2016) concluded that CP would benefit from higher summer baseflows (1,700-3,000 ft 3 /sec) with flows above or below associated with lower abundance of age-0 CP. Therefore, flexibility in the ROD is currently being utilized to establish higher stable summer base flows in an attempt create more advantageous conditions for spawning and rearing CP. These fish recovery flows are restrictive to WAPA in the summer months, therefore it is necessary to conduct an analysis of historic river data relationships to CP abundance to better understand if the recommended fish flows (elevated and stable base flows) are necessary for fish recovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

How Snow Drives the Seasonal Evolution of Land and Sea Surface Albedos in the Alaskan High Arctic: Final Technical Report

The purpose of the project was to observe and quantify temporal variation in snow albedo and snow characteristics across the Arctic coastal landscape as winter transitioned into spring and snowmelt occurred, both on tundra and sea ice. This transition is bounded by fully snow-covered landscapes with broadband albedos of approximately 0.8 and snow-free landscapes with albedos of 0.15 (tundra or ponded sea ice). For these landscapes, we monitored the spring surface characteristics and radiative properties nearly daily at three locations on or near the Department of Energy ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) User Facility in Utqiagvik, Alaska: the central NSA Facility (hereafter called ARM), one near NSA-E12 (BEO), and one on the sea ice of Elson Lagoon (ICE) during three melt seasons (2019, 2022, and 2024). The field campaign component of this award was named SALVO ( S now AL bedo E VO lution). Typical field seasons began in mid-April and lasted until mid-June. Main measurements included snow depth (at 1-m intervals), broadband albedo (at 5-m intervals), spectral albedo (at 5- m intervals), and multiple digital images. Orthomosaics were converted into binary images to determine the snow-covered fraction over time across various landscapes. Additional measurements included basic weather data and snow-ground (or ice) interface temperatures. Sky conditions were observed and photographed to help assess albedo values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparative Study of Hydrology and Icemelt in Three Nepal River Basins Using the Glacio-Hydrological Degree-Day Model (GDM) and Observations From the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT)

An assessment of the water supply and its seasonal and annual changes over the century in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region is of increasing interest due to its potential impact on one-sixth of the global population. In order to understand the changing hydrology and snow and ice melt, we used remotely sensed Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) observations of glacier melt (GM) and a distributed and gridded Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model (GDM) in three river basins: Tamor, Trishuli and Marsyangdi. The GDM-estimated contribution of snowmelt, icemelt, rainfall and baseflow in river flows is found to be most accurate in the Trishuli River basin, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) between the estimated and observed discharges of 0.81 and volume differences of -0.5%, and reasonably accurate in the Tamor River basin, with NSE of 0.69 and volume difference of -7.51%. Similarly, NSE of 0.81 and volume difference of 4.64% in Marsyangdi River basin. We find strong similarities in the timing of glacier melting using the GDM and from observations from the ASCAT GM, determining the seasonal start of glacier melting to within 6 days on average. In all basins ASCAT GM observes melting at higher elevations relative to GDM, average of 5,328 m a.s.l. Systematic differences in glacier melting area determined by modeling and satellite observations indicate ASCAT may have suboptimal resolution, view geometry and/or polarimetry for delineating glacier melting at the process-scale in complex topography, especially in the ablation zone. This is the first step in examining the remote sensing products that could potentially be incorporated into hydrologic models to increase the accuracy of the hydrologic flow as well as the ability to estimate river discharge in other basins with limited data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗