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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

The adult literacy evaluator: An intelligent computer-aided training system for diagnosing adult illiterates

An important part of NASA's mission involves the secondary application of its technologies in the public and private sectors. One current application being developed is The Adult Literacy Evaluator, a simulation-based diagnostic tool designed to assess the operant literacy abilities of adults having difficulties in learning to read and write. Using ICAT system technology in addition to speech recognition, closed-captioned television (CCTV), live video and other state-of-the art graphics and storage capabilities, this project attempts to overcome the negative effects of adult literacy assessment by allowing the client to interact with an intelligent computer system which simulates real-life literacy activities and materials and which measures literacy performance in the actual context of its use. The specific objectives of the project are as follows: (1) To develop a simulation-based diagnostic tool to assess adults' prior knowledge about reading and writing processes in actual contexts of application; (2) to provide a profile of readers' strengths and weaknesses; and (3) to suggest instructional strategies and materials which can be used as a beginning point for remediation. In the first and developmental phase of the project, descriptions of literacy events and environments are being written and functional literacy documents analyzed for their components. Examples of literacy events and situations being considered included interactions with environmental print (e.g., billboards, street signs, commercial marquees, storefront logos, etc.), functional literacy materials (e.g., newspapers, magazines, telephone books, bills, receipts, etc.) and employment related communication (i.e., job descriptions, application forms, technical manuals, memorandums, newsletters, etc.). Each of these situations and materials is being analyzed for its literacy requirements in terms of written display (i.e., knowledge of printed forms and conventions), meaning demands (i.e., comprehension and word knowledge) and social situation. From these descriptions, scripts are being generated which define the interaction between the student, an on-screen guide and the simulated literacy environment. The proposed outcome of the Evaluator is a diagnostic profile which will present broad classifications of literacy behaviors across the major areas of metacognitive abilities, word recognition, vocabulary knowledge, comprehension and writing. From these classifications, suggestions for materials and strategies for instruction with which to begin corrective action will be made. The focus of the Literacy Evaluator will be essentially to provide an expert diagnosis and an interpretation of that assessment which then can be used by a human tutor to further design and individualize a remedial program as needed through the use of an authoring system.

Yaden, David B., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Psychological Selection of NASA Astronauts for International Space Station Missions

During the upcoming manned International Space Station (ISS) missions, astronauts will encounter the unique conditions of living and working with a multicultural crew in a confined and isolated space environment. The environmental, social, and mission-related challenges of these missions will require crewmembers to emphasize effective teamwork, leadership, group living and self-management to maintain the morale and productivity of the crew. The need for crew members to possess and display skills and behaviors needed for successful adaptability to ISS missions led us to upgrade the tools and procedures we use for astronaut selection. The upgraded tools include personality and biographical data measures. Content and construct-related validation techniques were used to link upgraded selection tools to critical skills needed for ISS missions. The results of these validation efforts showed that various personality and biographical data variables are related to expert and interview ratings of critical ISS skills. Upgraded and planned selection tools better address the critical skills, demands, and working conditions of ISS missions and facilitate the selection of astronauts who will more easily cope and adapt to ISS flights.

Galarza, Laura↗
NASA NTRS2022

Risk of Performance and Behavioral Health Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, and Psychosocial Adaptions within a Team

The Risk of Performance and Behavioral Health Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication, and Psychosocial Adaptation within a Team (the Team Risk) is primarily performance-focused, with a secondary emphasis on behavioral health outcomes resulting from team performance and interpersonal interactions. Monitoring tools, measures, and countermeasures are aimed at enhancing team processes and team composition configurations to optimize team performance and functioning. Long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) will include major challenges that could affect team performance, including social isolation, physical confinement, a small and diverse crew, communication delays between crew and ground, limited or no crew rotation or evacuation options, limited or no resupply, and a high-consequence environment. Each of these conditions will affect the crew’s coordination, cooperation, psychological well-being, and performance. Although the International Space Station (ISS) remains important for studies that require spaceflight testing and validation, the current conditions on the ISS do not adequately mimic the exploration environment that is required for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) teams research, and thus access to terrestrial or ground-based analogs of LDEM conditions is paramount. The emphasis on analogs for research is reflected in this updated evidence review of the Team Risk, and includes data from studies conducted at isolated, confined, extreme (ICE) environments (e.g., Antarctic stations), and from several mission simulation analogs such as the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) (HERA Experiment Information Package, 2014), also known as isolated, confined, controlled (ICC) environments. These studies have characterized many team factors regarding LDEMs, and the Team Risk has now matured from risk characterization to focusing more on countermeasure development. Because spaceflight evidence for team-level research is lacking, no reliable data is available to quantify the impact of team-level variables on individual and team-level outcomes during spaceflight missions. Until recently, no systematic attempt had been undertaken to measure the performance effects of team cohesion, team composition, team training, or team-related psychosocial adaptation during spaceflight. The Team Risk is a relatively young research area for NASA, with substantial growth only since the 2000s, and with limited access to spaceflight performance data. As a result, spaceflight evidence is lacking to identify specifically what team composition, level of training, amount of cohesion, or quality of psychosocial adaptation is necessary to reduce the risk of performance errors in space. However, astronaut journals and interviews and reports from spaceflight subject matter experts (SMEs) provide testimonies that team performance during spaceflight is important for mission success and to maintain crew health. Team spaceflight data is now being collected as part of the Spaceflight Standard Measures task (Clement, 2021)—a set of core measurements related to many human spaceflight risks that are collected from astronauts before, during, and after long-duration missions. The team-related standard measures focus on team cohesion, team performance, group living, team climate, and team processes. Collection of standard measures data is ongoing and published data is not yet available. Finally, although spaceflight evidence is lacking, evidence gleaned from ground studies and spaceflight analog studies will help close the gaps outlined in the Team Risk. Ground-based studies provide quantitative evidence for team functioning in ICE environments. Academic research on teams has produced dozens of meta-analyses that can be used to understand the general relationships among team inputs (e.g., team member characteristics and skills, job context), team processes, and emergent states (e.g., coordination, communication, cooperation, cohesion, trust, shared cognition), and team outcomes (e.g., effectiveness, errors, adaptation). Teams are complex, incorporating individual characteristics of team members, but also existing at a level that is greater than the sum of its parts. Therefore, the Team Risk must be integrated with other individual-focused NASA Human Research Program (HRP) risks, including Behavioral Medicine (BMed), Sleep, and Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA), and emerging research indicates more integration may needed between the Team Risk and the physiologically oriented risks. Much of this integration occurs through the Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB). A lack of team functioning may be a stressor in some circumstances, but the team often acts as a countermeasure. For example, support for team leaders and teammates can facilitate individual functioning and encourage psychological and physically healthy behaviors and attitudes. However, more research is needed regarding teams during LDEMs and the remaining gaps in the research are described in the current report.

Lauren Blackwell Landon↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Power of Story

A major knowledge-sharing issue that is the source of many project problems: how to communicate our intentions so that the information received is the same as the information given. One answer is conversation-the back-and-forth of statement, question, and response that gradually brings talkers and listeners to a shared understanding. Stories also offer a way to share knowledge effectively. While the story teller's intent and the listener's interpretation will not be identical, a good story reliably communicates essential knowledge so it is not only understood but absorbed and embraced. Narrative is one of the oldest knowledge-transfer systems in the world. Religion knows it. Politicians know it. Fairytales know it. Now, knowledge management practitioners are coming to know it, too. But why are stories such a powerful knowledge-transfer tool? And what kinds of knowledge do they transfer? Joseph Campbell, the mythologist, defined stories as serving four major functions: the mystical, the cosmological, the sociological, and the pedagogical. The mystical function of narrative lies in its ability to open up emotional realization that often connects with a transcendent idea such as love or forgiveness. He calls this realization "mystical" because it connects the self with the universal. What Campbell calls the cosmological function of stories relates the self to the outside world, focusing on action, on understanding cause and effect and our role in it. For the cosmological function of stories "to be up to date and really to work in the minds of people who are living in the modern scientific world," Campbell notes, "it must incorporate the modern scientific world." We must continually tell stories that demonstrate our current vision of the world. The sociological function of stories, Campbell explains, helps maintain and validate the social order of a society. Stories pass on information about power relationships, taboos, laws, and the inner workings of communities. Countries and religions have stories that serve this function and so do organizations and project teams, where stories about project work communicate information about behaviors and attitudes that are expected and rewarded or frowned upon and penalized. Functioning pedagogically, says Campbell, narratives guide individuals harmoniously through the stages of life in terms of their world today, with its current goods, values, and dangers. These are stories that deal with life transitions and guide us from one stage to another. Stories powerfully serve these functions partly because of two great strengths: their ability to engage listeners personally and emotionally and their use of metaphor. And it turns out that these two things are related.

Cohen, Don↗
NASA NTRS2011

Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The ~lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

Hildebrand, Peter H.↗
NASA NTRS1972

STARSITE Program: Search To Assess Re- sources, Social, Institutional, Technical, and Environmental, toward a decision-making mechanism

The systems approach was used in the seminar on the complex multidisciplinary problem of housing and related environment conditions. The main areas of study are the following; historical overview of housing; diagrammatic presentation of the problem; technological innovations and contributions; management, economic, legal, and political considerations; environment and natural resources; human needs and behavior; model of the housing industry; and potential for implementation. It is felt that a greater attempt should be made to transfer aerospace technology to the housing industry; however, the emphasis of the conference was directed to the modern management techniques developed by NASA. Among the conclusions are the following: The extent and character of the housing problem should be defined. Increased coordination of housing programs within and between Federal agencies is essential. Development of physically sophisticated building systems requires Federal support. New towns of differing life styles need to be created. Physiological and psychological reactions to environmental enclosure need to be defined.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1975

The value of forage measurement information in rangeland management

An economic model and simulation are developed to estimate the potential social benefit arising from the use of alternative measurement systems in rangeland management. In order to estimate these benefits, it was necessary to model three separate systems: the range environment, the rangeland manager, and the information system which links the two. The rancher's decision-making behavior is modeled according to sound economic principles. Results indicate substantial potential benefits, particularly when used in assisting management of government-operated ranges; possible annual benefits in this area range from $20 to $46 million, depending upon the system capabilities assumed. Possible annual benefit in privately-managed stocker operations range from $2.8 to $49.5 million, depending upon where actual rancher capabilities lie and what system capabilities are assumed.

Lietzke, K. R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Performance enhancement in a semi-autonomous confined microsociety

Research in a continuously programmed human experimental laboratory has been directed toward identifying, defining, and expanding generalized knowledge concerning motivational factors within the structure of human behavioral repertoires that maintain and enhance performance. Participants (in groups of three) engaged in a series of repetitive work activities (e.g., word sorting and rug-hooking) for extended periods each day, while living continuously in a residential laboratory. Other parts of the day were spent either interacting socially with other participants or engaging in individual recreational activities. The percentage of time devoted to the various work tasks provided the basis for selecting one activity that occurred with high frequency and one with low frequency. Performance of the low-frequency activity was then required in order to gain access to the high-frequency activity. Under such contingencies, time devoted to the original low-frequency activity increased greatly, and the participants consistently did more than the required amount of the low-frequency work than was necessary to restore access to the restricted work activity. The theoretical significance of these findings resides in the clear demonstration that a time-based model of value applies as well to the enhancement of work-like performance as it does to voluntarily selected or preferred recreational activities.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Create an improved method to calculate reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle system prior to fabrication by using historic data of actual root causes of failures. While failures have unique "proximate causes", there are typically a finite amount of common "root causes". Heretofore launch vehicle reliability evaluation typically hardware-centric statistical analyses, while most root causes of failures are been shown to be human-centric. A method based on human-centric root causes can be used to quantify reliability assessments and focus proposed actions to mitigate problems. Existing methods have been optimistic in their projections of launch vehicle reliability compared to actuals. Hypothesis: reliability of a conceptual launch vehicle can be more accurately evaluated based on a rational, probabilistic approach using past failure assessment teams' findings predicated on human-centric causes."Human Reliability Analysis Methods Selection Guidance for NASA"Chandler F.T., et al., NASA HQ/OSMA study group, July 2006. Outside HRA experts from academia, other federal labs, and the private sector. 50 system reliability methods considered, fourteen selected for further study, four finally selected as best suited for human spaceflight. Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) + Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) enabled incorporating effects and probabilities of human errors. While four down-selected methods deemed appropriate for failure assessment, it did not appear that these methods could be concisely applied to perform major system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy."Engineering a Safer World", Detailed, comprehensive study external to NASA Leveson N. G., MIT, 2011.Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP). All-encompassing accident model based on systems theory analyzed accidents after they occurred and created approaches to prevent occurrence in developing systems not focused on failure prevention per se, but rather reducing hazards by influencing human behavior through use of constraints, hierarchical control structures, and process models to improve system safetySystem Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) addresses predictive part of problem (a "hazard analysis"). Includes all causal factors identified in STAMP: "...design errors, software flaws, component interaction accidents, cognitively complex human decision-making errors, and social organizational and management factors contributing to accidents" can guide design process rather than require it to exist before-hand did not appear capable of concise application for system-wide assessment of probability of failure of a conceptual design without becoming unwieldy.

Williams, Craig H.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Exploring with PAM: Prospecting ANTS Missions for Solar System Surveys

ANTS (Autonomous Nano-Technology Swarm), a large (1000 member) swarm of nano to picoclass (10 to 1 kg) totally autonomous spacecraft, are being developed as a NASA advanced mission concept. ANTS, based on a hierarchical insect social order, use an evolvable, self-similar, hierarchical neural system in which individual spacecraft represent the highest level nodes. ANTS uses swarm intelligence attained through collective, cooperative interactions of the nodes at all levels of the system. At the highest levels this can take the form of cooperative, collective behavior among the individual spacecraft in a very large constellation. The ANTS neural architecture is designed for totally autonomous operation of complex systems including spacecraft constellations. The ANTS (Autonomous Nano Technology Swarm) concept has a number of possible applications. A version of ANTS designed for surveying and determining the resource potential of the asteroid belt, called PAM (Prospecting ANTS Mission), is examined here.

Clark, P. E.↗
NASA NTRS2023

NASA GRC ICME Schema for Materials Data Management: An Executive Summary

Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) has received a growing emphasis in attention due its potential impact on rapid material design, reduction in cost and time to market for new applications, and the promise of ‘fit-for-purpose’ materials coupled with recent advances in high performance computing and material characterization tools. However, for an organization to implement ICME practices for material discovery and design, a series of both technical and cultural challenges must be overcome to foster an environment that enables efficient, traceable, and predictive multiscale simulations of material behavior to enable virtual design of materials. In 2016, NASA sponsored a 2040 Vision study to define the potential 25-year future state required for integrated multiscale modeling of materials and systems to improve both the associated time and cost for aerospace and aeronautical innovation. The study envisions a cyber-physical-social ecosystem of experimentally validated computational models, tools, and techniques, along with the associated digital tapestry, that can enable rapid, optimized, ‘fit-for-purpose’ design of materials, components, and systems. A key requirement for such an ecosystem is the development of a robust information management system for materials across their full lifecycle, including material pedigree, experimental (real) and virtual (simulation) data, developed material models, and the implementation of models in engineering applications, such that process-structure-property-performance relationships can be established, thereby enabling the virtual design and optimization of materials. Such an information management system must be able to effectively capture: i) material information at each length scale; ii) test data and analysis; iii) associated material models; and iv) material and model deployment in engineering applications. These systems must also provide traceability between experimental and virtual representations of the material to ensure, when appropriate, the material digital twin is maintained. Additionally, this robust material information management system must be able to seamlessly connect with both commercial and an organization’s in-house software tools, be they analysis tools, other material databases, product lifecycle management (PLM) or simulation data management (SDM) tools, etc., such that automation of the design and analysis of a material across multiple length scales is possible. In this paper, an executive summary of the NASA GRC ICME Schema for materials information management is presented. The database best practices and schema design philosophy specifically for ICME materials data management and an overview description of each element in the schema is given, along with its associated role in an ICME workflow. Additionally, auxiliary tools that interact with the database and provide judicious automation with regards to importing, exporting, and analyzing materials data are presented. Such tools are critical to an ICME ecosystem, not only for their role in enabling optimization, but also in relieving users of tedious manual tasks, thus helping to promote adoption and combat the cultural challenges organizations face in enabling ICME.

Materials↗
NASA NTRS2000

Bold endeavors: behavioral lessons from polar and space exploration

Anecdotal comparisons frequently are made between expeditions of the past and space missions of the future. Spacecraft are far more complex than sailing ships, but from a psychological perspective, the differences are few between confinement in a small wooden ship locked in the polar ice cap and confinement in a small high-technology ship hurtling through interplanetary space. This paper discusses some of the behavioral lessons that can be learned from previous expeditions and applied to facilitate human adjustment and performance during future space expeditions of long duration.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2005

Behavioral health in Antarctica: implications for long-duration space missions

Ideally, evidence from long-duration spaceflight should be used to predict likely occurrences of behavioral health events and for planning management strategies for such events. With small numbers of space travelers, and limited long-duration missions of a year or more, Earth analogues and simulations must be used as the evidence base, despite such analogues lacking microgravity, radiation, rapidly altering photoperiodicity, and fidelity to space. Antarctic health data are reviewed and an assessment made of the likely frequency of behavioral health events. Based on the Antarctic evidence, the likelihood of behavioral health problems in space is low. However, such cases may be serious and of high consequence, placing considerable demands on the mission crew and ground support to achieve a successful outcome, given the availability of pharmaceuticals and resources.

Review↗
NASA NTRS2006

Corporate Social Responsibility in Aviation

The dialog within aviation management education regarding ethics is incomplete without a discussion of corporate social responsibility (CSR). CSR research requires discussion involving: (a) the current emphasis on CSR in business in general and aviation specifically; (b) business and educational theory that provide a basis for aviation companies to engage in socially responsible actions; (c) techniques used by aviation and aerospace companies to fulfill this responsibility; and (d) a glimpse of teaching approaches used in university aviation management classes. The summary of this research suggests educators explain CSR theory and practice to students in industry and collegiate aviation management programs. Doing so extends the discussion of ethical behavior and matches the current high level of interest and activity within the aviation industry toward CSR.

Phillips, Edwin D.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Enhancing Team Performance for Long-Duration Space Missions

Success of exploration missions will depend on skilled performance by a distributed team that includes both the astronauts in space and Mission Control personnel. Coordinated and collaborative teamwork will be required to cope with challenging complex problems in a hostile environment. While thorough preflight training and procedures will equip creW'S to address technical problems that can be anticipated, preparing them to solve novel problems is much more challenging. This presentation will review components of effective team performance, challenges to effective teamwork, and strategies for ensuring effective team performance. Teamwork skills essential for successful team performance include the behaviors involved in developing shared mental models, team situation awareness, collaborative decision making, adaptive coordination behaviors, effective team communication, and team cohesion. Challenges to teamwork include both chronic and acute stressors. Chronic stressors are associated with the isolated and confined environment and include monotony, noise, temperatures, weightlessness, poor sleep and circadian disruptions. Acute stressors include high workload, time pressure, imminent danger, and specific task-related stressors. Of particular concern are social and organizational stressors that can disrupt individual resilience and effective mission performance. Effective team performance can be developed by training teamwork skills, techniques for coping with team conflict, intracrew and intercrew communication, and working in a multicultural team; leadership and teamwork skills can be fostered through outdoor survival training exercises. The presentation will conclude with an evaluation of the special requirements associated with preparing crews to function autonomously in long-duration missions.

Orasanu, Judith M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

How does drought affect residential water demand and price elasticity?

Urban water scarcity is an important social and economic concern, particularly as the intensity, duration, and frequency of droughts is increasing in many regions. We consider whether drought induces changes to water demand and the price elasticity of demand for water that may last beyond a drought’s official end date. If drought shocks prompt long-term changes in water demand behavior, and these changes occur at broad geographic scale, they could have important implications for modeling adaptive responses to water scarcity. We assemble a novel dataset on residential water demand and pricing in the western United States to test empirically for effects of drought on water demand and price elasticity. We perform our analysis with aggregate quantity, price, and drought data, accounting for endogenous prices under increasing-block water tariffs and using both average and marginal water fees in estimating water demand functions. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that households may become less price-sensitive after exposure to drought. However, we find no systematic evidence of long-run, drought-related reductions in water demand, itself.

demand hardening↗
NASA NTRS2016

Self-Guided Multimedia Stress Management and Resilience Training for Flight Controllers

Stress and anxiety-related problems are among the most common and costly behavioral health problems in society, and for those working in operational environments (i.e. astronauts, flight controllers, military) this can seriously impact crew performance, safety, and wellbeing. Technology-based interventions are effective for treating behavioral health problems, and can significantly improve the delivery of evidence-based health care. This study is evaluating the effectiveness, usefulness, and usability of a self-guided multimedia stress management and resilience training program in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with a sample of flight controllers at Johnson Space Center. The intervention, SMART-OP (Stress Management and Resilience Training for Optimal Performance), is a six-session, cognitive behavioral-based computer program that uses self-guided, interactive activities to teach skills that can help individuals build resilience and manage stress. In a prior RCT with a sample of stressed but otherwise healthy individuals, SMART-OP reduced perceived stress and increased perceived control over stress in comparison to an Attention Control (AC) group. SMART-OP was rated as "highly useful" and "excellent" in usability and acceptability. Based on α-amylase data, individuals in SMART-OP recovered quicker and more completely from a social stress test as compared to the AC group [1]. In the current study, flight controllers are randomized either to receive SMART-OP training, or to a 6-week waitlist control period (WLC) before beginning SMART-OP. Eligible participants include JSC flight controllers and instructors without any medical or psychiatric disorder, but who are stressed based on self-report. Flight controllers provide a valid analog sample to astronauts in that they work in an operational setting, use similar terminology to astronauts, are mission-focused, and work under the same broader work culture. The study began in December 2014, and to date 79 flight controllers and instructors have expressed interest in the study, 49 of those were cleared for participation, we have screened 44 for eligibility, and 23 have met inclusion criteria. Recruitment is ongoing and the study will continue until December 2016. Outcome measures include perceived stress, perceived control over stress, resilience, mood, personality, emotion regulation, sleep, health behaviors, and psychophysiological data such as 24-hour heart rate, alpha amylase, and urinary and salivary cortisol. We are also collecting user feedback such as usability, working alliance, usefulness, and treatment credibility.

Rose, R. D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

5-2428: Fracture Permeability Impact on Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modeling approaches to reduce parameter uncertainty and better predict/mitigate seismic hazard at EGS sites. Our novel approach couples 3D physics-based earthquake simulations with THMC models (THMc+E). This capability will enable improve engineering decisions at Utah-FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. For example, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite of flow rates and under uncertainty, thus enabling evaluation of optimal circulation strategy. Laboratory experiments will be performed to constrain key model parameters and Bayesian techniques will provide a probabilistic evaluation of parameters used in models. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗