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Results of a detailed analysis of solar activity in 1957-1965 are compared with the data on solar activity with variations of cosmic ray activity, and geomagnetic, ionospheric and terrestrial currents. Cosmic ray variations are investigated with reference to the asymmetry of solar hemispheres. All storms in the IGY are classified and a symbolic diagram of the time sequence is drawn up.
Understanding how the Sun changes though its 11-year sunspot cycle and how these changes affect the vast space around the Sun the heliosphere has been one of the principal objectives of space research since the advent of the space age. This book presents the evolution of the heliosphere through an entire solar activity cycle. The last solar cycle (cycle 23) has been the best observed from both the Earth and from a fleet of spacecraft. Of these, the joint ESA-NASA Ulysses probe has provided continuous observations of the state of the heliosphere since 1990 from a unique vantage point, that of a nearly polar orbit around the Sun. Ulysses results affect our understanding of the heliosphere from the interior of the Sun to the interstellar medium - beyond the outer boundary of the heliosphere. Written by scientists closely associated with the Ulysses mission, the book describes and explains the many different aspects of changes in the heliosphere in response to solar activity. In particular, the authors describe the rise in solar ESA and NASA have now unamiously agreed a third extension to operate the highly successful Ulysses spacecraft until March 2008 and, in 2007 and 2008, the European-built space probe will fly over the poles of the Sun for a third time. This will enable Ulysses to add an important chapter to its survey of the high-latitude heliosphere and this additional material would be included in a 2nd edition of this book.
Optical observations of solar active regions associated with some individual events
We examine the question of whether or not the non-periodic variations in solar activity are caused by a white-noise, random process. The Hurst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series, is evaluated for the series of C-14 data for the time interval from about 6000 BC to 1950 AD. We find a constant Hurst exponent, suggesting that solar activity in the frequency range from 100 to 3000 years includes an important continuum component in addition to the well-known periodic variations. The value we calculate, H approximately 0.8, is significantly larger than the value of 0.5 that would correspond to variations produced by a white-noise process. This value is in good agreement with the results for the monthly sunspot data reported elsewhere, indicating that the physics that produces the continuum is a correlated random process and that it is the same type of process over a wide range of time interval lengths.
It is pointed out that the autocorrelation coefficients of the daily Wolf sunspot numbers over a period of 128 years reveal a number of interesting features of the variability of solar activity. Besides establishing periodicities for the solar rotation, solar activity cycle, and, perhaps, the 'Gleissberg Cycle', they suggest that active longitudes do exist, but with much greater strength and persistence in some solar cycles than in others. Evidence is adduced for a variation in the solar rotation period, as measured by sunspot number, of as much as two days between different solar cycles.
The evolution of several observed solar active regions is simulated by solving a transport equation for magnetic flux at the photosphere. The rates of rotation, meridional flow, and diffusion of the flux are determined self-consistently in the calculations. The findings are in good quantitative agreement with previous measures of the rotation rate and diffusion constant associated with photospheric magnetic fields. Although the meridional velocities are consistent in direction and magnitude with recently reported poleward flows, relatively large uncertainties in the velocity determinations make this result inconclusive.
The presence of a solar active region affects the luminosity of the sun. Sunspots directly produce 'dips' in the total solar irradiance approximately proportionally to their projected area, while faculae produce excess energy. These effects were discovered during the solar maximum period of 1980, and the sunspot effect during solar minimum is examined. The 'dip' due to an active region in April, 1985, as observed in the total solar irradiance by the ACRIM instrument on the Solar Maximum Mission is examined. These data (obtained after the spacecraft repair in May, 1984) have simple variations, relative to those observed in 1980, because of the reduced level of activity approaching solar minimum. It is found that the PSI index of projected sunspot area as defined in 1980 appears to describe this 'dip' satisfactorily.
This paper presents numerical techniques for constructing nonlinear predictive models to forecast solar flux directly from its time series. This approach makes it possible to extract dynamical in variants of our system without reference to any underlying solar physics. We consider the dynamical evolution of solar activity in a reconstructed phase space that captures the attractor (strange), give a procedure for constructing a predictor of future solar activity, and discuss extraction of dynamical invariants such as Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.
A mean value for the 1 AU total solar irradiance of 1368.2 W/sq m and a downward trend of 0.05% per year were derived from measurements by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) experiment on the Solar Maximum Mission during 1980. Distinct temporary solar irradiance decreases associated with solar activity maxima were observed with a series of nine dips from April to October recurring at fairly regular intervals averaging 24 days. The decreases correlate inversely with sunspot area, 2800-MHz flux, and Zurich sunspot number. Dominant periods common to the irradiance and sunspot area power spectra link the irradiance decreases to sunspot flux deficit in solar active regions. Evidence of significant total irradiance modulation by facular flux excess is cited. A persistent radiative cycle of active regions consistent with the ACRIM irradiance results and the morphology of solar active regions was found. The pattern of regularly recurrent active region maxima between April and October suggests an asymmetry in solar activity generation during this period.
We present wavelengths and absolute intensities for 243 emission lines from a single active region observed by the Solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) on 1989 May 5. For this catalog, the imaged spectra have been spatially averaged over a field of view 7 sec x 276 sec cutting through the center of AR5464 at S18 W45. Wavelength coverage is 170-450 A with a spectral resolution approaching 10,000. Most of the line positions are determined to 5 mA or better, representing the highest accuracy yet obtained for solar wavelengths throughout this spectral interval. The relative photometric calibration of the instrument is good to +/- 20% over its first-order range, and has been placed onto an absolute scale that should be correct to within a factor less than 2. Where known, identifications, atomic transitions and formation temperatures are also given. The identified lines arise from temperatures that cover the range log T greater than or equal to 4.7 and less than or equal to 6.8, providing information about the Sun's corona and upper transition region. Upper limits to the intensity of any emission line not included here can be estimated from the measured instrumental sensitivity. This averaged EUV spectrum should prove useful as a source of accurate wavelengths and intensities for emission characteristic of the high-temperature plasma associated with a solar active region and small subflare.
Monthly averaged variations of global ozone determined from infrared interferometer spectrometer measurements aboard Nimbus 4 are shown to be consistently in agreement with monthly averaged variations of solar activity. The relationship between monthly changes of ozone and solar activity are found to be generally consistent with the longer-term variations of ozone over the last solar cycle and can be accounted for by assuming monthly solar flux variations near 0.2 micron of about 2%.
Diurnal variations of hard component of cosmic rays near minimum of solar activity
The natural variability in the terrestrial mesosphere needs to be known to correctly quantify global change. The response of the thermal structure to solar activity variations is an important factor. Some of the earlier studies highly overestimated the mesospheric solar response. Modeling of the mesospheric temperature response to solar activity has evolved in recent years, and measurement techniques as well as the amount of data have improved. Recent investigations revealed much smaller solar signatures and in some case no significant solar signal at all. However, not much effort has been made to synthesize the results available so far. This article presents an overview of the energy budget of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) and an up-to-date status of solar response in temperature structure based on recently available observational data. An objective evaluation of the data sets is attempted and important factors of uncertainty are discussed.
Observational data on sunspots, the 2800-MHz flux, and calcium plages are interpreted which were obtained during the declining phase of solar cycle 20. It is shown that three pulses of activity occurred during this period and resulted in two conspicuous 'stillstands' in the smooth means of the sunspot, 2800-MHz, and plage data. The longitudes of centers of sunspot and flare activity are found to have clustered in identifiable zones or hemispheres for relatively long periods of time. The sun is seen to have had a relatively inactive hemisphere centered about zero deg longitude, and certain well defined coronal holes were apparently located near the middle of this hemisphere. The first sunspot groups of cycle 21 are observed to have formed in the longitude zones associated with relatively high levels of activity during cycle 20.
Papers about prediction of ionospheric and radio propagation conditions based primarily on empirical or statistical relations is discussed. Predictions of sporadic E, spread F, and scintillations generally involve statistical or empirical predictions. The correlation between solar-activity and terrestrial seismic activity and the possible relation between solar activity and biological effects is discussed.
Herschel's observations are analyzed in order to determine the level of solar activity for solar cycle 5. It is concluded that solar cycle 5 may have peaked as early as 1801 based upon the average number of groups with a probable secondary maximum in 1804. Depending on the technique adopted, the peak for solar cycle 5 occurred sometime between 1801 and 1804, rather than 1805.2, as commonly assumed. Instead of a solar cycle of 17 yrs, a cycle length of 14 yrs is found. It is also found that the peak yearly mean sunspot number is only about 38 rather than 45, as deduced by Wolf (1855). A technique for making early solar observations homogeneous with modern sunspot observations is proposed.
This paper presents a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors is evaluated, which are physically related to the sun's polar field. These indicators are subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis, and the analysis technique for each indicator is specified in detail in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. It is found that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima. Also presented is a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. The scheme is then applied to the current cycle 22, and a maximum smoothed international sunspot number of 171 + or - 26 is estimated.
The rate that earth-orbiting debris is removed from the environment is dependent on a number of factors which include orbital altitude and solar activity. It is generally believed that at lower altitudes and especially during periods of high solar activity, debris generated in the past will be eliminated from the environment. While some debris is eliminated, most is replaced by old debris from higher altitudes or new debris from recent launches. Some low altitude debris, which would reenter if the debris were in circular orbits, does not reenter because the debris is in higher-energy elliptical orbits.