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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Solar Wind Defines Space Weather Safety Zones

During the ARTEMIS era, humans again will venture beyond the protection of the Earth’s atmosphere and magnetosphere into the solar wind. It is now well established that the solar wind is responsible for carving out a cavity in cosmic ray flux in the inner heliosphere. The resulting reduction in blood-forming organ dose rate basically enables human exploration. Lesser known or acknowledged is the important role the solar wind plays in shaping the directivity and extents of solar energetic particle events. This influence leads to an effective offset of the source location of the Sun that has the most potential to harm explorers through radiation exposure from major solar eruptions. This presentation will discuss how the solar wind influence renders current measures ineffective but instead demands new and immediate strategies to protect human explorers over the first decades of ARTEMIS exploration missions.

exploration↗
NASA NTRS1995

Coronal Mass Ejections and Solar Proton Events During the Great March 1989 Disturbances

The great active region of March 1989 was the most prolific in X- rays in the preceding 15 years, and produced very large bright optical solar flares. The accompanying solar energetic particle event was one of the four most intense episodes since 1963. These increases in particle fluxes are compared to the major X-ray and optical flares and to the major coronal mass ejections in order to test hypothesis.

Corona Coronal Mass Ejections Solar Flares Sun↗
NASA NTRS2013

Behavior Prediction Tools Strengthen Nanoelectronics

Several years ago, NASA started making plans to send robots to explore the deep, dark craters on the Moon. As part of these plans, NASA needed modeling tools to help engineer unique electronics to withstand extremely cold temperatures. According to Jonathan Pellish, a flight systems test engineer at Goddard Space Flight Center, "An instrument sitting in a shadowed crater on one of the Moon s poles would hover around 43 K", that is, 43 kelvin, equivalent to -382 F. Such frigid temperatures are one of the main factors that make the extreme space environments encountered on the Moon and elsewhere so extreme. Radiation is another main concern. "Radiation is always present in the space environment," says Pellish. "Small to moderate solar energetic particle events happen regularly and extreme events happen less than a handful of times throughout the 7 active years of the 11-year solar cycle." Radiation can corrupt data, propagate to other systems, require component power cycling, and cause a host of other harmful effects. In order to explore places like the Moon, Jupiter, Saturn, Venus, and Mars, NASA must use electronic communication devices like transmitters and receivers and data collection devices like infrared cameras that can resist the effects of extreme temperature and radiation; otherwise, the electronics would not be reliable for the duration of the mission.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2023

Space Weather Investigation Frontier (SWIFT)

The Space Weather Investigation Frontier (SWIFT) mission will aim at making major discoveries on the three-dimensional structure and dynamics of heliospheric structures that drive space weather. The focus will be on Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) that originate from massive expulsions of plasma and magnetic flux from the solar corona. They cause the largest geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle events, threatening to endanger life and disrupt technology on Earth and in space. A big current problem, both regarding fundamental solar-terrestrial physics and space weather, is that we do not yet understand spatial characteristics and temporal evolution of ICMEs and that the existing remote-sensing and in-situ observatories are not suited for resolving multi-layered and evolutionary structures in these massive storm drivers. Here, we propose a groundbreaking mission concept study using solar sail technology that, for the first time, will make continuous, in-situ multi-point observations along the Sun-Earth line beyond the Lagrange point L1 (sub-L1). This unique position, in combination with L1 assets, will allow distinguishing between local and global processes, spatial characteristics, temporal evolution, and particle energization mechanisms related to ICMEs. In addition, measurements of the magnetic field in earthbound ICMEs and their sub-structures from the SWIFT location will double the current forecasting lead-times from L1. This concept also paves the way for missions with increasingly longer forecasting lead-times, addressing NASA and NOAA’s space weather goals, as set forth by the Decadal Survey. The objective of this communication is to inform the community of the ongoing effort, including plans to further develop the mission concept, supported by the Heliophysics Flight Opportunities Studies (HFOS) program under NASA’s Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES).

M. Akhavan-Tafti↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A High Inclination Solar Mission Enabled by Near-Term Solar Sail Propulsion

Our current understanding of the Sun, its atmosphere, and the heliosphere is severely limited by a lack of good observations of the Sun’s polar regions. A High Inclination Solar Mission (HISM) mission would go into a 0.48-AU circular solar orbit with at least a 60° inclination to conduct long-term observations of the Sun’s poles using both situ and remote-sensing instruments to study the connections between the Sun, the solar wind, and solar energetic particle events. The propulsion requirements to implement HISM are beyond the capability of conventional chemical propulsion and extremely challenging even for highly efficient solar electric propulsion. To enable HISM and a host of other propulsion-intense space science missions, NASA is actively developing solar sail propulsion, capable of continuous low thrust for the extended periods of time required to meet the delta V requirements of HISM. Upcoming solar sail missions include the Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Scout (2021 planned launch) and Solar Cruiser (candidate for flight in 2024).Solar sails use sunlight to propel vehicles through space by reflecting solar photons from a large, highly-reflective sail. This continuous photon pressure provides propellantless thrust, allowing for very high delta V maneuvers on long-duration, deep-space exploration. Since the Sun supplies the necessary propulsive energy, solar sails require no onboard propellant, thereby potentially increasing useful payload mass. The NASA MSFC Advanced Concepts Office recently completed a detailed mission concept study of HISM based on the solar sail propulsion technologies being developed for NEA Scout and Solar Cruiser. The HISM spacecraft concept envisions carrying a Doppler & Stokes Imager, a coronagraph, magnetometer, Faraday Cup, a plasma spectrometer, and a radio and plasma wave package to meet the science objectives established for a solar polar orbiting mission in the Heliophysics Decadal Survey. This paper will describe the mission concept and its solar sail propulsion system

Solar Sail↗
NASA NTRS1980

A comparative study of cosmic ray intensity variations during 1972-1977 using spacecraft and ground-based observations

A study of cosmic ray intensity variations using data registered by Detector C on Pioneer 10 and the Sulphur Mountain neutron monitor is presented. The spacecraft data were corrected for temperature, Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator background, and contamination by energetic solar particle events. A consistent long-term solar cycle variation intensity is observed, but additional contribution is observed in the neighborhood of 5.1 AU which is attributed to energetic electrons of Jovian origin. The spectral variation in long-term changes of the cosmic ray intensity is studied by comparing the low-energy and high-energy data, and an average value of their ratio during 1972-1977 was found to agree with the value for the 1965-1972 interval.

Venkatesan, D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Solar Cycle Variation on Space Weather

We report on the solar cycle variation of solar eruptions and their space weather consequences during solar cycles 23-25. While the solar activity cycle is primarily expressed in terms of the Sunspot number (SSN), coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provide a different perspective on the solar cycle owing to their origin in sunspot regions as well as other non-spot magnetic regions such as quiescent filament regions. Weak solar activity observed in solar cycle 24 has been found to result in a weak heliospheric state, which backreacted on CME properties. The cycle resulted in mild space weather in that the number of large solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms decreased significantly. The occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms and high-energy SEP events was drastically reduced, much more than the reduction in the solar activity. The current status of solar cycle 25 indicates that it will be similar to solar cycle 24 or slightly stronger, which means a mild space weather in this cycle as well. We illustrate this using the data obtained during the rise phase of solar cycle 25 in comparison with the corresponding phases in cycles 23 and 24.

Nat Gopalswamy↗
NASA NTRS2007

IMP 8 GME Particle Observations Over Three Solar Cycles

The Goddard Medium Energy experiment on the IMP 8 spacecraft has made nearly continuous observations of the near-Earth energetic particle environment from its launch in October, 1973 until near present. We summarize several aspects of these observations, including solar energetic particle events, CIR-associated events, and cosmic ray modulations. In particular, we note that, as expected fiom the pattern of smaller recurrent (27 day) cosmic ray modulations seen in the mid 1980's A less than 0 solar minimum compared to the previous and following (A greater than 0) minima, recurrent modulations are again reduced in the current solar minimum.

Richardson, Ian↗
NASA NTRS2019

ISEP: A Joint SRAG/CCMC Collaboration to Improve Mitigation of Space Weather Effects on Crew Health in the Exo-LEO Era

The Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is tasked with monitoring changes to space weather and mitigating any resultant impacts to crew health and safety. As human spaceflight goals extend from Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) missions like the International Space Station (ISS) to the moon, Mars and beyond, SRAG will need to update their current approach for crew monitoring of and protection from radiation exposure due to energetic Solar Particle Events (ESPEs). Challenges faced in planning exo-LEO missions include the lack of protection from the Earth’s geomagnetic field employed by the ISS in addition to limited communication capability between the crew and the ground. In the event of an ESPE, the current ISS trajectory ensures that the vehicle is only traveling through fields of higher radiation exposure for a brief period of time; the Earth’s geomagnetic field prevents the penetration of the high-energy particles of concern throughout the majority of the orbit. Exo-LEO missions, on the other hand, require that the vehicle travel through free space, exposing vehicle and crew to the full impact of the ESPE. NASA has combined multiple approaches to resolve this radiation exposure issue. New vehicles are designed to take advantage of advances in particle transport modeling capabilities and shielding technology, allowing redistribution of mass throughout the vehicle to areas of thinner shielding when the energetic particle flux has increased to levels of concern. Although vehicle shielding is an important aspect of radiation exposure protection, there is a continued requirement to monitor and predict the space weather environment. To this end, SRAG maintains a console position in Mission Control with 24/7 mission support capability. In the event of increased solar activity, SRAG collaborates with the Flight Control Team (FCT) to determine if crew action (i.e., shelter) is required. During any increase in solar activity, the FCT needs three pieces of information to effectively decide the crew response in light of other required mission tasks: if an event (ESPE) will occur, how ‘intense’ an observed event will be, and how long will an observed event will last. An ideal alert system limits false alarms, therefore causing the crew to take action unnecessarily, without ignoring events that pose a hazard to the crew. SRAG’s current operational concept for ISS missions focuses on short-term forecasts, best described as ‘now-casting’. Console operators are in daily communication with the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) for situational awareness purposes. When conditions exist that may lead to increased solar activity, operators receive notifications from SWPC. In the case of a well-connected ESPE, the console operator may only have on the order of minutes to several hours to notify the FCT of the event and provide a recommendation for crew action. As NASA shifts to exo-LEO missions, the increased time in free space as well as the reduced ability to communicate with the crew will force a transition in crew protection strategy that emphasizes improvments to both the accuracy and the lead time in forecasting capabilities.

Barzilla, Janet E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

A New Phase for Space Weather

As we move into the declining phase of solar cycle 25, the sunspot number is going down but space weather impacts are not disappearing. Solar energetic particle events, large x-ray flares, and geomagnetic storms are still happening and the declining phase will bring a different balance of hazards. The need for space weather science, space weather applications, and an interface between research, application, and stakeholder communities has not passed. Observations and insights from solar cycle 25 will continue to help us prepare for solar cycle 26, so that we approach the next solar maximum with better predictions, better understanding of outcomes, and a stronger community enabling more confident mitigation and clearer outreach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2022

Advancing Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting

With growing interest from the aviation and satellite industries, and for NASA’s upcoming Artemis lunar missions, the need for improved scientific understanding and accurate forecasting of solar energetic particle events has never been stronger. In this paper we discuss the observational, validation and model transition support required to achieve these goals. Well-calibrated, high-quality energetic electron, proton, and ion measurements are essential. Expansions to the fields of view offered by current X-ray, extreme ultraviolet and coronagraph instruments, to obtain increased coverage of the solar corona and heliosphere, from vantage points off the Sun-Earth line, are desired for model input. New observations of suprathermal particles are needed to characterize seed particle distributions and low latency space-based observations of solar radio emissions are also desired. Together, this observational suite should offer high cadence, low latency, reliable and accurate space weather data streams. Consistent, extensive and quantitative model validation is required to assess scientific advancements and pave the way for models transitioning to real-time forecast operations. Model performance and skill should be compared to observations and to current operational forecasting baselines. Finally, resources are required to support the significant effort of transitioning mature models into forecast operations.

solar energetic particles↗
NASA NTRS2018

The International Space Station Space Radiation Environment: Avionics Systems Performance in Low-Earth Orbit Single Event Effects (SEE) Environments

Single event effects (SEE) are those errors, anomalies, or failures in microelectronic devices caused by the passage of a single energetic charged particle through the device. Spacecraft SEE environments consist primarily of energetic charged particles; both primary particles originating in the natural environment and secondary particles (including secondary neutrons) produced by nuclear reactions of primary particles with spacecraft materials. The energetic charged particle components (electrons, protons, and atomic nuclei) of the spacecraft SEE environment include galactic cosmic rays (GCR), and planetary radiation belt charged particles, as well as solar energetic particle event (SPE) charged particles. The International Space Station (ISS) orbital altitude and inclination (~350 km to ~420 km at 51.6o inclination) results in a spacecraft SEE environment that varies dramatically with the location in Earth?s geomagnetic field. Geomagnetic GCR shielding diminishes with distance from the geomagnetic equator. Near + 51.6o latitude the ISS GCR environment has a high degree of similarity to the interplanetary GCR environment in cis-Lunar space.SEE environments supporting ISS avionics systems design, development, test, and verification are documented in SSP-30512, Space Station Ionizing Radiation Design Environment. Comparisons of overall ISS avionics systems in-flight performance with pre-flight verification report predictions have been previously reported and meet or exceed expectations in all cases.In this paper we report the results of more detailed investigations of the effects of geographic location, altitude, solar cycle, and shielding mass effects on the in-flight SEE performance of the ISS command and data handling system during the past 17 years. In addition, we report on the preflight testing and in-flight performance of the commercial-off-the-shelf lap top computers used on ISS. Finally, we present an assessment of ISS as an avionics SEE test and flight demonstration platform for exploration hardware destined for the cis-lunar or other inner solar system environments.

International Space Station↗
NASA NTRS2004

Radiation and Internal Charging Environments for Thin Dielectrics in Interplanetary Space

Spacecraft designs using solar sails for propulsion or thin membranes to shade instruments from the sun to achieve cryogenic operating temperatures are being considered for a number of missions in the next decades. A common feature of these designs are thin dielectric materials that will be exposed to the solar wind, solar energetic particle events, and the distant magnetotail plasma environments encountered by spacecraft in orbit about the Earth-Sun L2 point. This paper will discuss the relevant radiation and internal charging environments developed to support spacecraft design for both total dose radiation effects as well as dose rate dependent phenomenon, such as internal charging in the solar wind and distant magnetotail environments. We will describe the development of radiation and internal charging environment models based on nearly a complete solar cycle of Ulysses solar wind plasma measurements over a complete range of heliocentric latitudes and the early years of the Geotail mission where distant magnetotail plasma environments were sampled beyond X(sub GSE) = -100 Re to nearly L2 (X(sub GSE) ~-236 Re). Example applications of the environment models are shown to demonstrate the radiation and internal charging environments of thin materials exposed to the interplanetary space plasma environments.

Minow, Joseph I.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Aspects of Coronal Mass Ejections Related to Space Weather

Solar cycle 23 witnessed an unprecedented array of space- and ground-based instruments observing the violent eruptions from the Sun that had huge impact on the heliosphere. It was possible to characterize corona) mass ejections (CMEs) that cause extreme solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms, the two aspects that concern the space weather community. In this paper I discuss the special populations of CMEs that have significant interplanetary consequences: shock-driving CMEs identified based on their association with type 11 radio bursts and in-situ shocks, SEP-producing CMEs, and geoeffective CMEs (those that produce geomagnetic storms). I discuss the kinematic and solar-source properties of these populations and how they vary with the solar activity cycle. I also compare their properties with the general population of CMEs, so one can recognize when and where these events occur on the Sun.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗
NASA NTRS2023

What Do Halo Cmes Tell Us About Solar Cycle 25?

It is known that the weak state of the heliosphere due to diminished solar activity in cycle 24 backreacted on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to make them appear wider for a given speed. One of the consequences of the weak state of the heliosphere is that more CMEs appear as halo CMEs (HCMEs), and halos are formed at shorter heliocentric distances. Current predictions for the strength of solar cycle (SC) 25 range from half to twice the strength of SC 24. We compare the HCME occurrence rate and other properties during the rise phase of cycles 23, 24, and 25 to weigh in on the strength of SC 25. We find that HCME and solar wind properties in SC 25 are intermediate between SCs 23 and 24, but closer to SC 24. The HCME occurrence rate, normalized to the sunspot number, is higher in SCs 24 and 25 than in SC 23. The solar wind total pressure in SC 25 is ∼35% smaller than that in SC 23. Furthermore, the occurrence rates of high-energy solar energetic particle events and intense geomagnetic storms are well below the corresponding values in SC 23, but similar to those in SC 24. We conclude that cycle 25 is likely to be similar to or slightly stronger than cycle 24, in agreement with polar-field precursor methods for cycle 25 prediction.

Solar coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS1993

Elemental abundances of flaring solar plasma - Enhanced neon and sulfur

Elemental abundances of two flares observed with the SMM Flat Crystal Spectrometer are compared and contrasted. The first had a gradual rise and a slow decay, while the second was much more impulsive. Simultaneous spectra of seven bright soft X-ray resonance lines provide information over a broad temperature range and are available throughout both flares, making these events unique in the SMM data base. For the first flare, the plasma seemed to be characterized by coronal abundances but, for the second, the plasma composition could not be coronal, photospheric, or a linear combination of both. A good differential emission measure fit required enhanced neon such that Ne/O = 0.32 +/- 0.02, a value which is inconsistent with the current models of coronal abundances based on the elemental first-ionization potential. Similar values of enhanced neon are found for flaring plasma observed by the SMM gamma-ray spectrometer, in (He-3)-rich solar energetic particle events, and in the decay phase of several long duration soft X-ray events. Sulfur is also enhanced in the impulsive flare, but not as dramatically as neon. These events are compared with two models which attempt to explain the enhanced values of neon and sulfur.

Schmelz, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Shock acceleration of electrons and ions in solar flares

The simultaneous first-order Fermi shock acceleration of electrons, protons, and alpha particles are compared to observations of solar energetic particle events. For each event, a unique shock compression ratio in the range approx. 1.6 to 3 produces spectra in good agreement with observation. The range in compression ratios predicts that the more than 5 orders of magnitude spread in electron to proton intensity ratios observed at MeV energies is compressed to about 3 orders of magnitude at an assumed injection energy of 100 keV. The remaining spread can be accounted for with a modest range of injection conditions. The model predicts that the acceleration time to a given energy will be approximately equal for electrons and protons and, for reasonable solar parameters, can be on the order of 1 second to approx. 100 MeV.

Ellison, Donald C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Shock acceleration of electrons and ions in solar flares

The simultaneous first-order Fermi shock acceleration of electrons, protons, and alpha particles are compared to observations of solar energetic particle events. For each event, a unique shock compression ratio in the range of approximately 1.6-3 produces spectra in good agreement with observation. The range in compression ratios predicts that the more than five orders of magnitude spread in electron-to-proton intensity ratios observed at MeV energies is compressed to about three orders of magnitude at an assumed injection energy of 100 keV. The remaining spread can be accounted for with a modest range of injection conditions. The model predicts that the acceleration time to a given energy will be approximately equal for electrons and protons, and for reasonable solar parameters, can be on the order of 1 s to approximately 100 MeV.

Ellison, D. C.↗