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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1986

Bimodality of the solar cycle

An alternative characterization of the solar cycle is offered that is consistent with the sunspot data for cycles 1-20 (1775-1976) but suggests a different physical interpretation. For sunspot cycles 1-20, all cycles occurred in strings (two to six cycles in length) during which the period remained longer or shorter than the sample mean period. These strings have coincided with long-term trends of growth or decay in the amplitude of the cycle. In six out of six cases, the period of the cycle has switched from long to short (or the reverse) in coincidence with the turning points in the long-term trend. This suggests that the solar dynamo has two modes with different mean periods. In the short-period mode, the amplitude of the cycle grows; in the long-period mode, the amplitude decays. The transition between modes has occurred at irregular intervals. A persistence of the long-period mode would eventually produce a grand minimum such as the Maunder minimum; a persistence of the short-period mode would produce a grand maximum. Unless the present interval between transitions turns out to be shorter than any previously observed interval, the present cycle (cycle 21) is part of a long-period, decaying trend and will be of longer-than-average duration (more than 133 months).

Rabin, D.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Asymmetries in the modulation of protons and helium nuclei over two solar cycles

Measurements of proton and helium spectra over two cycles of solar modulation show large asymmetries in modulation. These effects are apparent at sunspot minimum conditions in 1965 and 1977, where a much larger intensity is observed in 1977, and also at sunspot maximum conditions where a much lower intensity is observed in 1981 relative to 1970. The details of this asymmetry are discussed and possible causes are considered.

Webber, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Solar Source and CME Properties of Solar Cycle 23 Ground Level Enhancement Events

Solar cycle 23 witnessed the most complete set of observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with the Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events. GLE events are extreme cases of solar energetic particle (SEP) events in that the energetic particles penetrate Earth's neutral atmosphere to be detected by neutron monitors. In this paper we present the CME and their source properties that seem to be equally extreme. These observations are consistent with the idea that the GLE particles are accelerated in the same way as the regular SEP events by CME-driven shocks. While we cannot rule out the possibility of the presence of a flare component during GLE events, we can definitely say that a shock component is present in all the GLE events. We provide additional information on the GLE-associated type II radio bursts, complex type III radio bursts, and soft X-ray flares, which are not very different from those associated with large SEP events. Finally we compare the properties of GLEassociated CMEs in cycle 23 with those in cycle 22.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗
NASA NTRS1986

The interplanetary magnetic field during solar cycle 21 ISEE-3/ICE observations

Temporal variations in the IMF during solar cycle 21 are investigated using magnetic field observations collected by the vector helium magnetometer on the ISEE-3/ICE spacecraft. Analysis of the observations reveal that the IMF magnitude, which had declined to 4.7 nT in 1976, peaked in late 1982 (two years after solar maximum) at 9.0 nT and rapidly decreased during 1983-1984 to an intensity of 6.2 nT in early 1985. The IMF intensities are compared with the auroral AE index; the observed peak in strength during 1981-1983 is related to a 50 percent increase in substorm activity levels. A decrease in Parker spiral angle, revealing the existence of high-speed streams is detected in the declining phase of the solar cycle. Variations in the intensity of the IMF correlate with Mt. Wilson magnetograph measurements of full disk magnetic flux. Source regions for the evolution of solar wind and the IMF are proposed.

Slavin, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1980

X-ray bright points and the solar cycle dependence of emerging magnetic flux

Soft X-ray imaging of the solar corona during the period 1970 to 1978 resulted in significant modifications to the view of the solar cycle with respect to both the properties of the large scale (coronal holes) and small scale (X-ray Bright Points) solar magnetic field. In the latter case, the particular contribution is to the emerging magnetic flux. Sounding rocket observations combined with the Skylab data indicate that the XBP are anticorrelated with sunspot number and are the dominant contributors to the solar cycle. A continuous data set covering a complete cycle would enable the validity of this result which has serious implications for the nature of the solar dynamo, to be confirmed.

Davis, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The QBO as Potential Amplifier and Conduit to Lower Altitudes of Solar Cycle Influence

In several papers, the solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), which is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves. Salby and Callaghan (2000) analyzed the observed zonal winds of the QBO over more than 40 years and found that it contains a relatively large SC signature at 20 km. Following up on an earlier 2D study with our global-scale Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), we discuss here a 3D study with the QBO under the influence of the SC. For a SC period of 10 years, the amplitude of the relative variations of radiative forcing is taken to vary for simplicity from 0.2% at the surface to 2% at 50 km to 20% at 100 km and above. Covering a limited time span of 40 years, this model produces in the lower stratosphere a relatively large modulation of the QBO, which appears to be related to the SC and is in qualitative agreement with the observations. Some of the energy in the QBO, confined to low latitudes primarily, is redistributed globally by the meridional circulation and planetary waves presumably, so that a measurable SC modulation is generated in the tropospheric temperatures of the polar regions. Further studies are needed, (1) to determine whether the effect is real and prevails in more extensive simulations and whether the results are robust when shorter integration steps are employed, and (2) to explore the mechanism(s) that may ample the apparent SC influence of the UV radiation extending into the lower atmosphere. Quasi-decadal oscillations, generated internally by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles, may interfere with or aid the SC effect.

Mayr, Hans G.↗
NASA NTRS2022

What Is Unusual About the Third Largest Geomagnetic Storm of Solar Cycle 24?

We report on the solar and interplanetary (IP) causes of the third largest geomagnetic storm (26 August 2018) in solar cycle 24. The underlying coronal mass ejection (CME) originating from a quiescent filament region becomes a 440 km/s magnetic cloud (MC) at 1 au after ∼5 days. The prolonged CME acceleration (for ∼24 hr) coincides with the time profiles of the post-eruption arcade intensity and reconnected flux. Chen et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ab3f36) obtain a lower speed since they assumed that the CME does not accelerate after ∼12 hr. The presence of multiple coronal holes near the filament channel and the high-speed wind from them seem to have the combined effect of producing complex rotation in the corona and IP medium resulting in a high-inclination MC. The Dst time profile in the main phase steepens significantly (rapid increase in storm intensity) coincident with the density increase (prominence material) in the second half of the MC. Simulations using the Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere model show that a higher ring current energy results from larger dynamic pressure (density) in MCs. Furthermore, the Dst index is highly correlated with the main-phase time integral of the ring current injection that includes density, consistent with the simulations. A complex temporal structure develops in the storm main phase if the underlying MC has a complex density structure during intervals of southward IP magnetic field. We conclude that the high intensity of the storm results from the prolonged CME acceleration, complex rotation of the CME flux rope, and the high density in the 1-au MC.

N. Gopalswamy↗
NASA NTRS1987

Solar cycle variation of some mass dependent characteristics of upflowing beams of terrestrial ions

Examination of the S3-3 and DE ion composition data spread over a solar cycle indicates that some characteristics of energetic upflowing terrestrial ion beams above the auroral zone show dependence on solar cycle. At solar maximum the different ion beam mass components have comparable mean energies, and O(+) dominates the beam composition. The ion energies are consistent with having been acquired from the potential drop below the satellite inferred from the electron loss cone distributions. At solar minimum the beam composition is dominated by H(+), but the O(+) has a higher mean energy and is hotter than the H(+) component. Also, the O(+) has more energy than it could itself have acquired from the potential drop. These observations are qualitatively consistent with the ion beams having acquired their energies from a parallel electric field and being partially thermalized through the two-stream instability between the two ion species, with this effect being modulated by the beam composition.

Collin, H. L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

January-february Tropospheric Climate for the Northern Hemisphere and the 11-year Solar Cycle, the QBO and the Southern Oscillation

Examined here is a recently discovered association between the 11-year solar cycle and the atmosphere that is most easily detectable when the two phases of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) are considered individually rather than pooled. The influence of the Southern Oscillation (SO) for either of the two QBO phases is then combined with that of the solar cycle in the form of two-predictor multiple regression. The strong and well-defined relationship between the 11-year 10.7 cm solar flux cycle and the lower troposphere Northern Hemisphere January-February climate for QBO phase-stratified samples (van Loon and Labitzke 1988, Barnston and Livezey 1989) failed for the west QBO phase in 1989. Here, the opposing 1989 event is explained, at least in part, on the basis of the phase of the SO (the cold tropical Pacific SST event of 1988 to 1989). It is demonstrated that both the SO and the solar flux have moderate and quasi-independent correlations with the climate over certain regions, and where there is strong overlap they can work either in harmony or in opposition. In 1989 in North America the influences of the SO and the flux conflicted to an unprecedented extent, and the SO was the controlling influence in most regions of the continent (western Canada being one exception). The 1989 event draws attention to the smallness of the QBO phase-stratified samples and the still more serious holes in the two-dimensional sample space of flux and SO when both factors are viewed as predictors within one QBO phase.

Barnston, Anthony G.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Fraction of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections That Are Magnetic Clouds: Evidence for a Solar Cycle Variation

"Magnetic clouds" (MCs) are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) characterized by enhanced magnetic fields with an organized rotation in direction, and low plasma beta. Though intensely studied, MCs only constitute a fraction of all the ICMEs that are detected in the solar wind. A comprehensive survey of ICMEs in the near- Earth solar wind during the ascending, maximum and early declining phases of solar cycle 23 in 1996 - 2003 shows that the MC fraction varies with the phase of the solar cycle, from approximately 100% (though with low statistics) at solar minimum to approximately 15% at solar maximum. A similar trend is evident in near-Earth observations during solar cycles 20 - 21, while Helios 1/2 spacecraft observations at 0.3 - 1.0 AU show a weaker trend and larger MC fraction.

Richardson, I. G.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Comparison of activity in solar cycles 18, 19, and 20

Although solar activity cycles are in general remarkably similar, cycles 18, 19, and 20, with maximums in 1947.5, 1958.2, and 1968.9, respectively, differed in the heights of their maximums, in the patterns of their development, and to a certain extent in the character of their manifestations of solar activity. Of the 20 solar cycles since 1755, the maximums in sunspot numbers for cycles 18, 19, and 20 rank as 3, 1, and 10, respectively. Cycle 18, with a maximum smoothed monthly sunspot number of 151.8, was the cycle of 'giant' spots. Cycle 19, with the highest recorded maximum, 201.3, included many large spots but failed to produce spots with areas equal to those of cycle 18. The highest known daily 2800-MHz flux occurred in cycle 18, not in cycle 19. Cycle 20, with a sunspot maximum of only 110.6, appears to have been close to the average cycle of the last 220 years. An attempt is made to compare the general levels of flare production in the three cycles. Cycle 19 is estimated to have been more flare-rich than cycle 18 by a much smaller factor than the original data implied. In cycle 20, general flare production drops conspicuously.

Dodson, H. W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Solar cycle variations of the electron densities near the ionospheric peak of Venus

Photochemical equilibrium calculations of electron and ion densities, appropriate for altitudes below about 180 km, were carried out for the Venus dayside ionosphere corresponding to solar cycle maximum and minimum conditions. The results were compared with data from radio occultation measurements. The agreement between the calculations and measurements was, in general, quite good. These comparisons indicate that the most commonly used neutral atmosphere model of Venus (Hedin et al., 1983) predicts densities which are somewhat low near the electron density peak for solar cycle maximum, but provides surprisingly good predictions for solar cycle minimum conditions.

Kim, J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

An 11-year Solar-Cycle in Tropospheric Ozone from TOMS Measurements

Tropospheric column ozone derived from Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) footprint measurements in the tropical western Pacific for 1979-1992 provide the first observational evidence of changes in tropospheric ozone which are out of phase with the stratospheric ozone changes on a time scale of a solar cycle. The estimated changes in tropospheric and stratospheric column ozone over a solar cycle are respectively -2.97 and 8.83 DU (Dobson units) or - 12.7 and 3.7% from the solar minimum to solar maximum. These observations are qualitatively consistent with a modulation effect on tropospheric ozone photochemistry by UV-induced changes in stratospheric ozone. However, in the low NO(x) regime of the marine atmosphere, the observed changes are significantly larger than estimated from a photochemical model. The solar cycle detected in tropospheric ozone is estimated to produce approximately 0.1-0.25 W m(exp -2) anomalous radiative forcing in the tropics. The combination of this with other radiative sources may have substantial influence on both regional and global climate.

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Solar cycle variation in the subauroral electron temperature enhancement - Comparison of AE-C and DE 2 satellite observations

The elevation of the subauroral electron temperature is one of the phenomena showing the energy transfer from the magnetosphere and the response of the ionosphere. This study addresses solar cycle variations in the subauroral Te peak by comparing observations of the subauroral peak by the Atmosphere Explorer C (AE-C) satellite near solar minimum (1974 and 1977) with similar observations by the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite near solar maximum (1981-1982). Te peaks with magnitudes sufficient to produce observable stable auroral red arc emissions occurred more frequently during solar maximum than in solar minimum, but the variation in the magnitudes and positions of these peaks with magnetic activity did not change significantly with solar cycle. These results are discussed in terms of the solar cycle changes in the ionosphere and the magnetospheric energy source.

Fok, M.-C.↗