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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Explosive magnetic reconnection - Puzzle to be solved as the energy supply process for magnetospheric substorms?

It is pointed out that magnetospheric substorms are perhaps the most basic type of disturbances which occur throughout the magnetosphere. There is little doubt that the energy for magnetospheric substorms is delivered from the sun to the magnetosphere by the solar wind, and theoretical and observational studies have been conducted to uncover the processes associated with the energy transfer from the solar wind to the magnetosphere, and the subsequent processes leading to various magnetospheric substorm phenomena. It has been widely accepted that explosive magnetic reconnection supplies the energy for magnetospheric substorm processes. It is indicated that the auroral phenomena must be various manifestations of a large-scale electrical discharge process which is powered by the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo. Certain problems regarding explosive magnetic reconnection are discussed.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Torsional waves on the sun and the activity cycle

The detailed relation of the sun's torsional oscillation velocity feature to magnetic activity indicates (1) that these motions represent a fundamental oscillation within the sun which is responsible for the solar activity cycle, and (2) that they are not a natural consequence of an alpha-omega dynamo. It is demonstrated that a solar torsional oscillation with wave number 1/hemisphere exists.

Labonte, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Application of Synoptic Magnetograms for Prediction of Solar Activity Using Ensemble Kalman Filter

Solar activity predictions using the data assimilation approach have demonstrated great potential to build reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to a non-linear dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. These developments assume an empirical relationship between the mean toroidal magnetic field flux and the sunspot number. Estimated from the sunspot number series, variations of the toroidal field have been used to assimilate the data into the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin (PKR) dynamo model by applying the EnKF method. The dynamo model describes the evolution of the toroidal and poloidal components of the magnetic field and the magnetic helicity. Full-disk magnetograms provide more accurate and complete input data by constraining both the toroidal and poloidal global field components, but these data are available only for the last four solar cycles. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of limited time series observations on the accuracy of solar activity predictions. We present EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Comparisons of Supergranule Characteristics During the Solar Minima of Cycles 22/23 and 23/24

Supergranulation is a component of solar convection that manifests itself on the photosphere as a cellular network of around 35 Mm across, with a turnover lifetime of 1 2 days. It is strongly linked to the structure of the magnetic field. The horizontal, divergent flows within supergranule cells carry local field lines to the cell boundaries, while the rotational properties of supergranule upflows may contribute to the restoration of the poloidal field as part of the dynamo mechanism, which controls the solar cycle. The solar minimum at the transition from cycle 23 to 24 was notable for its low level of activity and its extended length. It is of interest to study whether the convective phenomena that influence the solar magnetic field during this time differed in character from periods of previous minima. This study investigates three characteristics (velocity components, sizes and lifetimes) of solar supergranulation. Comparisons of these characteristics are made between the minima of cycles 22/23 and 23/24 using MDI Doppler data from 1996 and 2008, respectively. It is found that whereas the lifetimes are equal during both epochs (around 18 h), the sizes are larger in 1996 (35.9 plus or minus 0.3 Mm) than in 2008 (35.0 plus or minus 0.3 Mm), while the dominant horizontal velocity flows are weaker (139 plus or minus m per second in 1996; 141 plus or minus 1 m per second in 2008). Although numerical differences are seen, they are not conclusive proof of the most recent minimum being inherently unusual.

Williams, Peter E.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Interaction between a magnetized plasma flow and a strongly magnetized celestial body with an ionized atmosphere - Energetics of the magnetosphere

Findings on the interaction between a magnetized plasma flow and a strongly magnetized celestial body are described, emphasizing the energetics of the magnetosphere and some astrophysical implications. It is shown that the interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere constitutes a dynamo whose power is modulated by the magnetized plasma flow. The varying with time of the flow speed, the magnetic field magnitude, and the latter's orientation are studied along with the reasons for the variation. The mode of dissipation of the generated power in the magnetosphere is investigated. As a preliminary, the basic solar wind conditions in the heliosphere are analyzed. It is shown how a flare-generated disturbance propagates in the heliosphere and how the dynamo power is modulated as the solar wind disturbance collides with the magnetosphere. The origin of geomagnetic storms and auroral phenomena in the dissipation of power in the magnetosphere is detailed.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Data Assimilation and Uncertainties in Early Solar Cycle Predictions

Stochastic nature of solar activity variations together with our limited knowledge of the dynamo mechanism and subsurface dynamics causes uncertainty in predictions of the solar cycle. For improving the physics-­‐based predictions we can take advantage of the mathematical data assimilation approach that allows us to take into account both, observational errors and model uncertainties, and provide estimates of the next solar cycle along with prediction uncertainties. In this study we use the Parker's migratory dynamo model together with the equation of magnetic helicity balance, which reproduces main properties of the sunspot cycles and allow us to minimize discrepancies between the observed global activity variations and the model solution. The test simulation runs show that a reliable prediction can be obtained for two phases of preceding solar cycle: 1) if the polar field reversals shortly after the solar maxima (strong toroidal field and weak poloidal field), and 2) during the solar minima (strongest poloidal and weak toroidal fields). The early estimate of Cycle 25 obtained by this method shows that this cycle will start in 2019 – 2020, reach the maximum in 2023 – 2024, and that the mean sunspot number at the maximum will be about 90 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series).

Data Assimilation↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

Dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extends from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to the global-Sun magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across the different layers, which contribute to the corona heating and eruptive dynamics, as well as interlinks between different layers of the solar interior and atmosphere. For modeling the global-scale activity we use the data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitation on the prediction accuracy. We present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields, and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting the solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

The dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Solar Cycle

Sunspots provided the first evidence for the 11-year cycle of solar activity and continue to provide key indicators of the level and nature of solar activity. Solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections increase in frequency as the number of sunspots increases during the rising phase of the solar cycle. The total irradiance of the Sun and its irradiance in ultraviolet light and x-rays also increase as the sunspot number increases. On the other hand, the flux of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth decreases as the sunspot number increases. These changes in the heliospheric environment produce significant effects on our environment. Our technological assets, in space, in the air, and on the ground, can be adversely affected by solar activity. Satellite drag, single-event upsets in electronic components, radio communication outages, power outages, and terrestrial climate can all be influenced by solar activity. In this lecture I will describe many of the significant characteristics of the solar cycle, their roots in solar magnetism, the mechanisms of the Sun's magnetic dynamo, and predictions for the amplitude and timing of next solar cycle.

Hathaway, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Helioseismic Constraints on the Gradient of Angular Velocity at the Base of the Solar Convection Zone

The layer of transition from the nearly rigid rotation of the radiative interior to the latitudinal differential rotation of the convection zone plays a significant role in the internal dynamics of the Sun. Using rotational splitting coefficients of the p-mode frequencies, obtained during 1986-1990 at the Big Bear Solar Observatory, we have found that the thickness of the transitional layer is 0.09 +/- 0.04 solar radii (63 +/- 28 Mm), and that most of the transition occurs beneath the adiabatically stratified part of the convection zone, as suggested by the dynamo theories of the 22 yr solar activity cycle.

Kosovichev, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Solar Activity Across the Scales: From Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar↗
NASA NTRS2017

Solar Activity Across the Scales: from Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-­‐organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-­fold approach: 1) рealistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-­‐resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-­‐scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Magneti↗
NASA NTRS2009

Predicting the Sunspot Cycle

The 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered by an amateur astronomer in 1844. Visual and photographic observations of sunspots have been made by both amateurs and professionals over the last 400 years. These observations provide key statistical information about the sunspot cycle that do allow for predictions of future activity. However, sunspots and the sunspot cycle are magnetic in nature. For the last 100 years these magnetic measurements have been acquired and used exclusively by professional astronomers to gain new information about the nature of the solar activity cycle. Recently, magnetic dynamo models have evolved to the stage where they can assimilate past data and provide predictions. With the advent of the Internet and open data policies, amateurs now have equal access to the same data used by professionals and equal opportunities to contribute (but, alas, without pay). This talk will describe some of the more useful prediction techniques and reveal what they say about the intensity of the upcoming sunspot cycle.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Rossby Wave 'Hills' Identified As Supergranules

We explore the nature of 'hills' observed on the solar surface which had previously been attributed to Rossby waves. We investigate the sol ar hills phenomenon by analyzing the output from a synthetic model ba sed solely on the observed solar photospheric convection spectrum. We show that the characteristics of these hills can be explained by the corrugation of the surface produced by the radial flows of the conve ction. The hills in our simulations are dominated by supergranules, a well-known component of solar convection. Rossby waves have been predicted to exist within the Sun and may play an important role in the d ynamics of the solar interior, including the Sun's differential rotat ion and magnetic dynamo. Our study suggests, however, that the hills observed at the solar limb do not confirm the existence of solar Ross by waves.

Williams, P. E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Theories for the origin of lunar magnetism

This paper reviews the major theories which have been proposed to explain the remanent magnetism found in the lunar crust. A total of nine different mechanisms for lunar magnetism are discussed and evaluated in light of the theoretical and experimental constraints pertinent to lunar magnetism. It is concluded that none of these theories in their present state of development satisfy all the known constraints. However, the theories which agree best with the present understanding of the moon are meteorite impact magnetization, thermoelectric dynamo field generation, and an early solar wind field.

Daily, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Solar magnetic fields - The generation of emerging flux

X-ray observations have provided information about magnetic fields on the sun, and the implications of these observations are discussed. The pattern of small-scale flux emergence is quite different from that of active regions. It is inferred that the small-scale fields originate fairly high in the convective zone, while the fields in active regions have a deeper origin. The small-scale turbulent fields are only loosely related to the fields that define the normal solar cycle. The way in which dynamo models must be modified in the light of these results is indicated.

Golub, L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Erratum: Evidence That a Deep Meridional Flow Sets the Sunspot Cycle Period

An error was made in entering the data. This changes the results concerning the length of the time lag between the variations in the meridional flow speed and those in the cycle amplitude. The final paragraph on page 667 should read: Finally, we study the relationship between the drift velocities and the amplitudes of the hemisphere/cycles. We compare the drift velocity at the maximum of the cycle to the amplitude of that cycle for that hemisphere. There is a positive (0.5) and significant (95%) correlation between the two. However, an even stronger relationship is found between the drift velocity and the amplitude of the N + 2 cycle. The correlation is stronger (0.7) and more significant (99%), as shown. This relationship is suggestive of a "memory" in the solar cycle, again a property of dynamo models that use meridional circulation. Indeed, the two-cycle lag is precisely the relationship found by Charbonneau & Dikpati. This behavior is, however, more difficult to interpret, and we elaborate on this in the next section. In either case, these correlations only explain part of the variance in cycle amplitude (25% for the current cycle and 50% for the N + 2 cycle). Obviously, other mechanisms, such as variations in the gradient in the rotation rate, also contribute to the cycle amplitude variations. Our investigation of possible connections between drift rates and the amplitudes of the N + 1 and N + 3 cycles gives no significant correlations at these alternative time lags.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using a Magnetic Flux Transport Model to Predict the Solar Cycle

We present the results of an investigation into the use of a magnetic flux transport model to predict the amplitude of future solar cycles. Recently Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman (2006) showed how their dynamo model could be used to accurately predict the amplitudes of the last eight solar cycles and offered a prediction for the next solar cycle - a large amplitude cycle. Cameron & Schussler (2007) found that they could reproduce this predictive skill with a simple 1-dimensional surface flux transport model - provided they used the same parameters and data as Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman. However, when they tried incorporating the data in what they argued was a more realistic manner, they found that the predictive skill dropped dramatically. We have written our own code for examining this problem and have incorporated updated and corrected data for the source terms - the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions. We present both the model itself and our results from it - in particular our tests of its effectiveness at predicting solar cycles.

Lyatskaya, S.↗