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NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

Dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extends from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to the global-Sun magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across the different layers, which contribute to the corona heating and eruptive dynamics, as well as interlinks between different layers of the solar interior and atmosphere. For modeling the global-scale activity we use the data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitation on the prediction accuracy. We present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields, and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting the solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

The dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Solar Cycle

Sunspots provided the first evidence for the 11-year cycle of solar activity and continue to provide key indicators of the level and nature of solar activity. Solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections increase in frequency as the number of sunspots increases during the rising phase of the solar cycle. The total irradiance of the Sun and its irradiance in ultraviolet light and x-rays also increase as the sunspot number increases. On the other hand, the flux of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth decreases as the sunspot number increases. These changes in the heliospheric environment produce significant effects on our environment. Our technological assets, in space, in the air, and on the ground, can be adversely affected by solar activity. Satellite drag, single-event upsets in electronic components, radio communication outages, power outages, and terrestrial climate can all be influenced by solar activity. In this lecture I will describe many of the significant characteristics of the solar cycle, their roots in solar magnetism, the mechanisms of the Sun's magnetic dynamo, and predictions for the amplitude and timing of next solar cycle.

Hathaway, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Helioseismic Constraints on the Gradient of Angular Velocity at the Base of the Solar Convection Zone

The layer of transition from the nearly rigid rotation of the radiative interior to the latitudinal differential rotation of the convection zone plays a significant role in the internal dynamics of the Sun. Using rotational splitting coefficients of the p-mode frequencies, obtained during 1986-1990 at the Big Bear Solar Observatory, we have found that the thickness of the transitional layer is 0.09 +/- 0.04 solar radii (63 +/- 28 Mm), and that most of the transition occurs beneath the adiabatically stratified part of the convection zone, as suggested by the dynamo theories of the 22 yr solar activity cycle.

Kosovichev, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Solar Activity Across the Scales: From Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar↗
NASA NTRS2017

Solar Activity Across the Scales: from Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-­‐organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-­fold approach: 1) рealistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-­‐resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-­‐scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Magneti↗
NASA NTRS2009

Predicting the Sunspot Cycle

The 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered by an amateur astronomer in 1844. Visual and photographic observations of sunspots have been made by both amateurs and professionals over the last 400 years. These observations provide key statistical information about the sunspot cycle that do allow for predictions of future activity. However, sunspots and the sunspot cycle are magnetic in nature. For the last 100 years these magnetic measurements have been acquired and used exclusively by professional astronomers to gain new information about the nature of the solar activity cycle. Recently, magnetic dynamo models have evolved to the stage where they can assimilate past data and provide predictions. With the advent of the Internet and open data policies, amateurs now have equal access to the same data used by professionals and equal opportunities to contribute (but, alas, without pay). This talk will describe some of the more useful prediction techniques and reveal what they say about the intensity of the upcoming sunspot cycle.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Rossby Wave 'Hills' Identified As Supergranules

We explore the nature of 'hills' observed on the solar surface which had previously been attributed to Rossby waves. We investigate the sol ar hills phenomenon by analyzing the output from a synthetic model ba sed solely on the observed solar photospheric convection spectrum. We show that the characteristics of these hills can be explained by the corrugation of the surface produced by the radial flows of the conve ction. The hills in our simulations are dominated by supergranules, a well-known component of solar convection. Rossby waves have been predicted to exist within the Sun and may play an important role in the d ynamics of the solar interior, including the Sun's differential rotat ion and magnetic dynamo. Our study suggests, however, that the hills observed at the solar limb do not confirm the existence of solar Ross by waves.

Williams, P. E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Theories for the origin of lunar magnetism

This paper reviews the major theories which have been proposed to explain the remanent magnetism found in the lunar crust. A total of nine different mechanisms for lunar magnetism are discussed and evaluated in light of the theoretical and experimental constraints pertinent to lunar magnetism. It is concluded that none of these theories in their present state of development satisfy all the known constraints. However, the theories which agree best with the present understanding of the moon are meteorite impact magnetization, thermoelectric dynamo field generation, and an early solar wind field.

Daily, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Solar magnetic fields - The generation of emerging flux

X-ray observations have provided information about magnetic fields on the sun, and the implications of these observations are discussed. The pattern of small-scale flux emergence is quite different from that of active regions. It is inferred that the small-scale fields originate fairly high in the convective zone, while the fields in active regions have a deeper origin. The small-scale turbulent fields are only loosely related to the fields that define the normal solar cycle. The way in which dynamo models must be modified in the light of these results is indicated.

Golub, L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Erratum: Evidence That a Deep Meridional Flow Sets the Sunspot Cycle Period

An error was made in entering the data. This changes the results concerning the length of the time lag between the variations in the meridional flow speed and those in the cycle amplitude. The final paragraph on page 667 should read: Finally, we study the relationship between the drift velocities and the amplitudes of the hemisphere/cycles. We compare the drift velocity at the maximum of the cycle to the amplitude of that cycle for that hemisphere. There is a positive (0.5) and significant (95%) correlation between the two. However, an even stronger relationship is found between the drift velocity and the amplitude of the N + 2 cycle. The correlation is stronger (0.7) and more significant (99%), as shown. This relationship is suggestive of a "memory" in the solar cycle, again a property of dynamo models that use meridional circulation. Indeed, the two-cycle lag is precisely the relationship found by Charbonneau & Dikpati. This behavior is, however, more difficult to interpret, and we elaborate on this in the next section. In either case, these correlations only explain part of the variance in cycle amplitude (25% for the current cycle and 50% for the N + 2 cycle). Obviously, other mechanisms, such as variations in the gradient in the rotation rate, also contribute to the cycle amplitude variations. Our investigation of possible connections between drift rates and the amplitudes of the N + 1 and N + 3 cycles gives no significant correlations at these alternative time lags.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using a Magnetic Flux Transport Model to Predict the Solar Cycle

We present the results of an investigation into the use of a magnetic flux transport model to predict the amplitude of future solar cycles. Recently Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman (2006) showed how their dynamo model could be used to accurately predict the amplitudes of the last eight solar cycles and offered a prediction for the next solar cycle - a large amplitude cycle. Cameron & Schussler (2007) found that they could reproduce this predictive skill with a simple 1-dimensional surface flux transport model - provided they used the same parameters and data as Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman. However, when they tried incorporating the data in what they argued was a more realistic manner, they found that the predictive skill dropped dramatically. We have written our own code for examining this problem and have incorporated updated and corrected data for the source terms - the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions. We present both the model itself and our results from it - in particular our tests of its effectiveness at predicting solar cycles.

Lyatskaya, S.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Stellar Activity at the End of the Main Sequence: GHRS Observations of the M8 Ve Star VB 10

We present Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph observations of the M8 Ve star VB 10 (equal to G1 752B), located very near the end of the stellar main sequence, and its dM3.5 binary companion G1 752A. These coeval stars provide a test bed for studying whether the outer atmospheres of stars respond to changes in internal structure as stars become fully convective near mass 0.3 solar mass (about spectral type M5), where the nature of the stellar magnetic dynamo presumably changes, and near the transition from red to brown dwarfs near mass 0.08 solar mass (about spectral type M9), when hydrogen burning ceases at the end of the main sequence. We obtain upper limits for the quiescent emission of VB 10 but observe a transition region spectrum during a large flare, which indicates that some type of magnetic dynamo must be present. Two indirect lines of evidence-scaling from the observed X-ray emission and scaling from a time-resolved flare on AD Leo suggest that the fraction of the stellar bolometric luminosity that heats the transition region of VB 10 outside of obvious flares is comparable to, or larger than, that for G1 752A. This suggests an increase in the magnetic heating rates, as measured by L(sub line)/L(sub bol) ratios, across the radiative/convective core boundary and as stars approach the red/brown dwarf boundary. These results provide new constraints for dynamo models and models of coronal and transition-region heating in late-type stars.

Linsky, Jeffrey L.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Influence of magnetic pressure on stellar structure: A Mechanism for solar variability

A physical mechanism is proposed that couples the Sun's dynamo magnetic field to its gravitational potential energy. The mechanism involves the isotropic field pressure resulting in a lifting force on the convective envelope, thereby raising its potential energy. Decay of the field due to solar activity allows the envelop to subside and releases this energy, which can augment the otherwise steady solar luminosity. Equations are developed and applied to the Sun for several field configurations. The best estimate model suggests that uniform luminosity variations as large as 0.02% for half a sunspot cycle may occur. Brief temporal variations or the rotation of spatial structures could allow larger excursions in the energy released.

Schatten, K. H.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Jovian Substorms: A Study of Processes Leading to Transient Behavior in the Jovian Magnetosphere

Solar system magnetospheres can be divided into two groups: induced and intrinsic. The induced magnetospheres are produced in the solar wind interaction of the magnetized solar wind with planetary obstacles. Examples of these magnetospheres are those of comets, Venus and Mars. Intrinsic magnetospheres are the cavities formed in the solar wind by the magnetic fields produced by dynamo current systems inside the planets: Mercury, Earth, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune are known to have intrinsic magnetospheres. Intrinsic magnetospheres can be further subdivided as to how the circulating plasma is driven by external or internal processes. The magnetospheres of Mercury and Earth are driven by the solar wind. The magnetospheres of Jupiter and possibly of Saturn are principally driven by internal processes. These processes provide the energy for the powerful jovian radio signals that can be detected easily on the surface of the Earth.

Russell, C. T.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Energy supply processes for magnetospheric substorms and solar flares - Tippy bucket model or pitcher model?

In the past, both magnetospheric substorms and solar flares have almost exclusively been discussed in terms of explosive magnetic reconnection. Such a model may conceptually be illustrated by the so-called 'tippy-bucket model', which causes sudden unloading processes, namely a sudden (catastrophic, stochastic, and unpredictable) conversion of stored magnetic energy. However, recent observations indicate that magnetospheric substorms can be understood as a result of a directly driven process which can conceptually be illustrated by the 'pitcher model' in which the output rate varies in harmony with the input rate. It is also possible that solar flare phenomena are directly driven by a photospheric dynamo. Thus, explosive magnetic reconnection may simply be an unworkable hypothesis and may not be a puzzle to be solved as the primary energy supply process for magnetospheric substorms and solar flares.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Magnetic fields in the sun

The observed properties of solar magnetic fields are reviewed, with particular reference to the complexities imposed on the field by motions of the highly conducting gas. Turbulent interactions between gas and field lead to heating or cooling of the gas according to whether the field energy density is less or greater than the maximum kinetic energy density in the convection zone. The field strength above which cooling sets in is 700 gauss. A weak solar dipole field may be primeval, but dynamo action is also important in generating new flux. The dynamo is probably not confined to the convection zone, but extends throughout most of the volume of the sun. Planetary tides appear to play a role in driving the dynamo.

Mullan, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Magnetic fields in the sun

The observed properties of solar magnetic fields are reviewed, with particular reference to the complexities imposed on the field by motions of the highly conducting gas. Turbulent interactions between gas and field lead to heating or cooling of the gas according as the field energy density is less or greater than the maximum kinetic energy density in the convection zone. The field strength above which cooling sets in is 700 G. A weak solar dipole field may be primeval, but dynamo action is also important in generating new flux. The dynamo is probably not confined to the convection zone, but extends throughout most of the volume of the sun. Planetary tides appear to play a role in driving the dynamo.

Mullan, D. J.↗