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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8

Spectral line identification from a photoionised silicon plasma in emission

Next-generation X-ray satellite telescopes such as XRISM, NewAthena and Lynx will enable observations of exotic astrophysical sources at unprecedented spectral and spatial resolution. Proper interpretation of these data demands that the accuracy of the models is at least within the uncertainty of the observations. One set of quantities that might not currently meet this requirement is transition energies of various astrophysically relevant ions. Current databases are populated with many untested theoretical calculations. Accurate laboratory benchmarks are required to better understand the coming data. We obtained laboratory spectra of X-ray lines from a silicon plasma at an average spectral resolving power of ∼7500 with a spherically bent crystal spectrometer on the Z facility at Sandia National Laboratories. Many of the lines in the data are measured here for the first time. We report measurements of 53 transitions originating from the K-shells of He-like to B-like silicon in the energy range between ∼1795 and 1880 eV (6.6–6.9 Å). The lines were identified by qualitative comparison against a full synthetic spectrum calculated with ATOMIC. The average fractional uncertainty (uncertainty/energy) for all reported lines is ∼5.4 × 10 −5 . We compare the measured quantities against transition energies calculated with RATS and FAC as well as those reported in the NIST ASD and XSTAR’s uaDB. Average absolute differences relative to experimentally measured values are 0.20, 0.32, 0.17 and 0.38 eV, respectively. All calculations/databases show good agreement with the experimental values; NIST ASD shows the closest match overall.

astrophysical plasmas↗

Remote Sensing of Live Fuel Moisture for Wildfires Using SMAP Satellite Observations

Live Fuel Moisture (LFM) is a critical parameter for wildfire risk assessment, traditionally measured by labor-intensive field sampling. However, sampled LFM data are influenced by site-specific factors, such as local vegetation types and plant traits, and are often collected retrospectively after wildfire events, making it difficult to obtain pre-fire data for predictive applications. Here, we evaluate the relationship between LFM and Vegetation Water Content (VWC) and Soil Moisture (SM) retrieved from SMAP L-band brightness temperature using the Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) approach. The MEP-retrieved VWC exhibited strong correlation with in situ measurements of LFM ( r > 0.6) in the Western U.S. The integration of high-resolution vegetation coverage data enhances the detection of sub-grid vegetation heterogeneity. This study demonstrates the operational potential of remote sensing derived VWC as a scalable proxy of LFM, supporting its application in regional assessment of wildfire risk.

Cho, Kyeungwoo [Georgia Institute of Technology, A↗

Unprecedented Beaufort Sea ice loss in late summer 2021 and its relationship to an extended period of unusually stormy weather

Previous case studies have linked cyclone-induced atmospheric forcing and/or upper-ocean processes to notable Arctic sea ice loss events in the summers of 2012 and 2016. This study examines a more recent and noteworthy case in late summer 2021 in which substantial sea ice loss followed a period of surface meteorological extremes in the Beaufort Sea region of the Arctic. We focus on the period from mid-August to mid-September 2021 that coincided with the Office of Naval Research THINICE Pilot Field Campaign and investigate stormy and windy conditions with respect to air-sea processes impacting sea ice conditions. We find that during the stormy first half of the campaign, cyclone-induced energy fluxes into the marginal ice zone and surrounding waters preconditioned the ice pack for more rapid melt later in the campaign. The second half of the campaign, in contrast, was marked by non-cyclone wind events that enhanced turbulent (namely sensible) heat fluxes into the ice and upper ocean that increased melt. Moreover, this latter period had enhanced advection of the Beaufort Sea ice pack into above-freezing waters, increasing bottom melt to >1 cm d −1 over the remainder of the campaign. While findings are shown to vary by surface type and at relatively small (i.e. ice-floe) scales, insights are offered on the roles of late summer coupled processes on rapid ice loss events in today’s Arctic environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

(Un)Explained EMIC Waves: Understanding Quiet Time EMIC Wave Drivers

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves are known to be generated through cyclotron resonance with the local ion particle population and grow when there is a large enough temperature anisotropy. In general, these temperature anisotropies necessary for wave growth are found to be associated with either solar wind pressure pulses or particle injections during geomagnetic storms or substorms. However, some EMIC events do not show any clear association with these known drivers and appear unexplained. In our analysis of high-amplitude (>1 nT) non-storm time EMIC waves, we find that 24 out of the 223 (~11%) EMIC events with peak amplitude greater than 1 nT were not found to be associated with any clear EMIC wave driver. This raises a compelling question: What magnetospheric or solar wind driver provides the free energy to grow these quiet-time EMIC waves? Here, we examine two EMIC events on 13 April 2017 and 13 February 2014, which were excited during extremely quiet solar wind and geomagnetic conditions. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis of field and particle measurements from multiple data sets, including ground and in situ data for these two events, indicates that extremely weak and otherwise insignificant pressure values and/or very weak substorm injections occurring multiple hours before the event play a significant role in quiet time wave generation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

XRISM spectroscopy on orbital modulation of Fe Ly α lines in Cygnus X-3

To understand physical processes such as mass transfer and binary evolution in X-ray binaries, the orbital parameters of the system are fundamental and crucial information. Cygnus X-3 is a high-mass X-ray binary composed of a compact object of unknown nature and a Wolf–Rayet star, which is of great interest in the context of wind-fed mass accretion and binary evolution. Here we present XRISM/Resolve high-resolution spectroscopy, focusing on the Fe Ly$\alpha$ lines when the source was in its hypersoft state. We perform an orbital phase-resolved spectral analysis of the lines to study the orbital modulation of the emission and absorption lines. It is found that the emission lines reflect the orbital motion of the compact object whose estimated velocity amplitude is $430^{+150}_{-140}$ km s$^{-1}$, while the absorption lines show a variation that can be interpreted as originating from the stellar wind. We discuss possible mass ranges for the binary components using the mass function with the estimated value of the velocity amplitude in this work, combined with the relation between the mass-loss rate and the orbital period derivative and the empirical mass and mass-loss rate relation for Galactic Wolf–Rayet stars. They are constrained to be (1.3–5.1) and (9.3–12) M$_\odot$, respectively, for the assumed inclination angle of $i =25^\circ$, and become more relaxed, (1.3–24) and (9.3–16) M$_\odot$, for $i = 35^\circ$. Thus, it remains unclear whether the system harbors a black hole or a neutron star.

X-rays: binaries↗

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗

Towards modelling AR Sco: calibration – reproducing high-energy pulsar emission and testing convergence to Aristotelian electrodynamics

In recent years, kinetic simulations have been crucial to further our understanding of pulsar electrodynamics. Yet, due to the large-scale separation between the gyro-period and the stellar rotation period, resolving the particle gyration has been computationally unfeasible for realistic pulsar parameters. The main aim of this work is comparing our gyro-phase-resolved model with a gyro-centric pulsar model, where our model solves the general equations of motion with included radiation reaction using a higher order numerical solver with adaptive time-steps. Specifically, we aim to (i) reproduce a pulsar’s high-energy emission maps, namely one with 10 per cent of the surface B-field strength of Vela, and the spectra produced by an independent gyro-centric pulsar emission model; and (ii) test convergence of these results to the radiation-reaction limit of Aristotelian electrodynamics. (iii) Additionally, we identify the effect that a large $E_{\parallel }$-field has on the trajectories and radiation calculations. We find that we can reproduce the curvature radiation emission maps and spectra well, using 10 per cent field strengths of the Vela pulsar and injecting our particles at a higher altitude in the magnetosphere. Using sufficiently large $E_{\parallel }$-fields, our numeric results converge to the analytic radiation-reaction limit trajectories. Additionally, we illustrate the importance of accounting for the $\mathbf {E}\times \mathbf {B}$-drift in the particle trajectories and radiation calculations, validating the Harding and collaborators’ model approach. Lastly, we found that our model deals very well with the high-radiation-reaction and high-field regimes present in pulsars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Calibration of the Falcon Solid-state Energetic Electron Detector (SEED)

The Falcon Solid-state Energetic Electron Detector (FalconSEED) is an energetic charged particle sensor that has been developed and tested at the United States Air Force Academy in an effort to monitor electron flux across the energy range of 14 to 145 keV in geosynchronous orbit. This sensor has been developed to complement ongoing efforts by the Air Force Research Laboratory to advance a comprehensive space environment sensor suite, Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor (CEASE3), for anomaly resolution. In addition, FalconSEED is intended to demonstrate the ability to operate a radiation sensor based on predominantly commercial off the shelf components in the geosynchronous environment. This paper describes the design, development, and calibration of FalconSEED. The electron energy spectrum of interest for the FalconSEED sensor is 14 to 145 keV, and is intended to supplement data acquired from the CEASE3 instrument for anomaly resolution. The calibrations at the Space Atmospheric Research Center at the United States Air Force Academy and Kirtland Air Force Base were used to first establish the conversion between histogram bin number and deposited energy in the sensor, and second have been used to determine the geometric factor as a function of energy. The FalconSEED will be integrated as a science payload on the Space Test Program Satellite-6 which also includes the first flight of the CEASE3 instrument and is scheduled to launch in 2021.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

“Godzilla,” the Extreme African Dust Event of June 2020: Origins, Transport, and Impact on Air Quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin

In June 2020, the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Basin were affected by a series of African dust outbreaks unprecedented in size and intensity. These events, informally named “Godzilla,” coincided with CALIMA, a large field campaign, offering a rare opportunity to assess the impact of African dust on air quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin. Network measurements of respirable particles (i.e., PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) showed that dust significantly degraded regional air quality and increased the risk to public health in the Caribbean, the southern United States, northern South America, and Central America. CALIMA examined the meteorological context of Godzilla dust events over North Africa and how these conditions might relate to the greatly increased dust emissions and enhanced transport to the Americas. Godzilla was linked to strong pressure anomalies over West Africa, resulting in a large-scale geostrophic wind anomaly at 700 hPa over North Africa. We used surface-based and columnar measurements to test the performance of two frequently used aerosol forecast models: the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) models. The models showed some skills but differed substantially between their forecasts, suggesting large uncertainties in these forecasts that are critical for issuing early warnings of health-threatening dust events. Our results demonstrate the value of an integrated approach in characterizing the spatial and temporal variability of African dust transport and assessing its impact on regional air quality. Future studies are needed to improve models and to track the long-term changes in dust transport from Africa under a changing climate.

Aerosols/particulates↗

Volatilized Ammonia Supports Subterranean Ecosystems with Unusual Nitrogen Isotopic Signatures

The Frasassi cave system hosts a robust subterranean ecosystem based on microbial lithoautotrophy. Curiously, acidic biofilms forming above degassing sulfidic cave streams, and the invertebrates that feed on them, are extremely depleted in nitrogen-15 (δ 15 N values less than −20‰). In this study, we tested the hypothesis that these low δ 15 N values result from the volatilization, trapping, and uptake of ammonia degassed from circumneutral streams. We found that dissolved ammonium in the streams had δ 15 N values near +3‰, whereas NH 3(g) in the cave atmosphere above streams exhibited δ 15 N values as low as −27‰, consistent with fractionation by NH 3 volatilization. Extremely acidic condensation droplets on cave walls efficiently trapped airborne NH 3 , accumulating up to 4 mM NH 4 + with δ 15 N values as low as −29‰, thereby confirming volatilized and trapped ammonia as the primary N source to cave wall biofilms and the extensive subsurface ecosystem they support. Airborne ammonia trapping represents a novel mechanism for biological N acquisition and provides abundant N for growth in an extreme subsurface environment that otherwise receives very limited nutrient input.

Nitrogen↗

Energy shift of Fe-K fluorescence lines due to low ionization demonstrated with XRISM in Centaurus X-3

The Fe K$\alpha$ fluorescence line at 6.4 keV is a powerful probe of cold matter surrounding X-ray sources and has been widely used in various astrophysical contexts. The X-ray microcalorimeter spectrometer onboard XRISM can measure line shifts with unprecedented precision of ${\sim }$0.2 eV, equivalent to a line-of-sight velocity of ${\sim }$10 km s$^{-1}$. At this level of accuracy, however, several factors that influence the line energy must be carefully considered prior to astrophysical interpretation. One such important factor is the ionization degree, Fe$^{q+}$. The K$\alpha$ line shifts redward by ${\sim }$4 eV as q increases from 0 (neutral) to 8 (Ar-like). Additionally, the accompanying Fe K$\beta$ line at 7.06 keV shifts blueward by ${\sim }$30 eV from $q=0$ to 8. We demonstrate that this effect is actually observable in the XRISM data of the high-mass X-ray binary Centaurus X-3 (Cen X-3). We advocate that the differential energy shift between the K$\alpha$ and K$\beta$ line provides a robust estimate of q by decoupling from other effects that shift the two lines in the same direction. We derived $q \sim 5$ (Sc-like) for the fluorescing matter by comparing the observation with atomic structure calculations of our own and in the literature. By accounting for the derived charge state and the corresponding shift in the rest-frame line energy, we made corrections for this effect and reached a consistent residual shift among the K$\alpha$, K$\beta$, and the optical measurement attributable to the systemic velocity of the system. Consequently, we obtained a new constraint on the location of the cold matter. This ionization effect needs to be assessed in all use cases of the Fe K$\alpha$ line shift beyond Cen X-3, and the proposed metric is generally applicable to all of them.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

Microbial ecology of acidic, biogenic gypsum: community structure and distribution of extremophiles on freshly formed and relict sulfate deposits in a hydrogen sulfide-rich cave

Sulfate minerals are abundant on the Martian surface, and many of these evaporite deposits are thought to have precipitated from acidic fluids. On Earth, gypsum (CaSO 4 •2H 2 O) and other sulfates sometimes form under acidic conditions, so exploring the extremophilic life that occurs in these mineral environments can help evaluate the astrobiological potential of acid sulfate depositional settings. Here, we characterized the microbial communities associated with acidic gypsum deposits in a sulfuric acid cave, where sulfate precipitation is driven by sulfide-oxidizing bacteria and archaea. We used 16S rRNA gene sequencing and cell counts to characterize gypsum-associated microorganisms in freshly formed and relict deposits throughout the cave, to test how microbial community composition and abundance would vary with distance from the sulfidic water table and with the concentration of H 2 S(g) and other gases in the cave atmosphere. We found that actively forming gypsum in the lower cave levels was colonized by low-diversity communities that have few cells compared to other environments in the cave. The most abundant taxa were Acidithiobacillus, Metallibacterium, Mycobacteria, and three different Thermoplasmatales-group archaea, which occupied distinct niches based on proximity to sulfidic streams and the concentration of gases in the cave air. By contrast, deposits in older cave levels had more diverse communities that were distinct from those associated with freshly formed gypsum and likely represent a community reliant on different energy resources. These findings show that acidic sulfate deposits serve as habitats for extremophilic microorganisms and broaden our knowledge of the life associated with terrestrial sulfates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Air-sea interactions yielding rapid Beaufort Sea ice losses during the 2021 ONR THINICE Pilot Field Campaign

Seasonal sea ice coverage has declined in the Pacific Arctic region. Losses of the ice cover have modified the region’s surface heat and momentum fluxes providing weather systems more direct interaction with the upper ocean. For example, recent cyclones that have passed over these waters have initiated multiple air-sea interactions and have impacted mixed layer depth, wave properties, and sea ice mass budgets due to diabatic and/or advective processes. As a United States Office of Naval Research (ONR) Departmental Research initiative, one key component of the ONR THINICE program was to advance knowledge on Arctic cyclone coupling with the ocean surface, its ice cover, and understand how such coupling can lead to rapid ice loss. Leading up to the primary field campaign in August 2022, a pilot field campaign from 19 August to 13 September 2021 focused in Utqiagvik, Alaska and Longyearbyen, Svalbard was carried out. This period was marked by frequent Arctic cyclones, periods of strong low-level winds, and stints of extreme short-term Beaufort Sea ice area losses. Cyclones traversed these waters much more frequently than usual during this 26-day period, but did not exhibit extreme central pressures indicative of high intensity and impactful storms. Using ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis fields, CERES and AIRS surface flux retrievals, and in situ sensor data collected from ice-tethered profilers and ice mass balance buoys, we highlight air-sea-ice interactions in the Beaufort Sea during and between these cyclones leading up to extreme ice loss events. Our case study analysis is aimed at understanding how Arctic cyclones, including air-sea interactions prompted by their passage over the marginal ice zone, influence the end-of-summer ice conditions and ice loss events. This study provides an example where frequent, yet weak storms drive rather large marginal sea-scale losses albeit with heterogenous sea ice effects at local scales.

Ballinger, Thomas [International Arctic Research C↗

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at ~3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching ~4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid’s diameter at 60 ± 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 ’s potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. Here, we cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid deflection↗

Benchmark of the Fe xvv 𝓡 ratio in photoionized plasma during eclipse of Centaurus X-3 with XRISM/Resolve

The $\mathcal {R}$ ratio is a useful diagnostic of the X-ray emitting astrophysical plasmas and is defined as the intensity ratio of the forbidden over the inter-combination lines in the K$\alpha$ line complex of He-like ions. The value is altered by excitation processes (electron impact or UV photoexcitation) from the metastable upper level of the forbidden line, thereby constraining the electron density or UV field intensity. The diagnostic has been applied mostly in electron density constraints in collisionally ionized plasmas using low-Z elements, as was originally proposed for the Sun (Gabriel & Jordan, 1969a, MNRAS, 145, 241), but it can also be used in photoionized plasmas. To make use of this diagnostic, we need to know its value in the limit of no excitation of metastables ($\mathcal {R}_{0}$), which depends on the element, how the plasmas are formed, how the lines are propagated, and the spectral resolution affecting line blending principally with satellite lines from Li-like ions. We benchmark $\mathcal {R}_0$ for photoionized plasmas by comparing calculations using radiative transfer codes and observation data taken with the Resolve X-ray microcalorimeter onboard XRISM. We use the Fe xxv He$\alpha$ line complex of the photo-ionized plasma in Centaurus X-3 observed during eclipse, in which the plasma is expected to be in the limit of no metastable excitation. The measured $\mathcal {R} = 0.65 \pm 0.08$ is consistent with the value calculated using xstar for the plasma parameters derived from other line ratios of the spectrum. We conclude that the $\mathcal {R}$ ratio diagnostic can be used for high-Z elements such as Fe in photoionized plasmas, which has wide applications in plasmas around compact objects at various scales.

X-rays: binaries↗

FORECASTOR – II. Simulating galaxy surveys with the Cosmological Advanced Survey Telescope for Optical and UV Research

The Cosmological Advanced Survey Telescope for Optical and UV Research (CASTOR) is a planned flagship space telescope, covering the blue-optical and UV part of the spectrum. Here, we introduce the CASTOR image simulator, a python GalSim package-based script capable of generating mock CASTOR images from an input catalogue. We generate example images from the CASTOR Wide, Deep, and Ultra-Deep surveys using simulated lightcones from the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model. We make predictions for the performance of these surveys by comparing galaxies that are extracted from each image using Source Extractor to the input catalogue. We find that the Wide, Deep, and Ultra-Deep surveys will be 75 per cent complete for point sources down to $\sim 27$, 29, and 30 mag, respectively, in the UV, u, and g filters, with the UV-split and u-split filters reaching a shallower depth. With a large area of $\sim 2200$ deg$^2$, the Wide survey will detect hundreds of millions of galaxies out to $z\sim 4$, mostly with $M_\ast \gtrsim 10^{9}\,{\rm M}_{\odot }$. The Ultra-Deep survey will probe to $z\sim 5$, detecting galaxies with $M_\ast \gtrsim 10^{7}{\rm M}_{\odot }$. These galaxy samples will enable precision measurements of the distribution of star formation in the cosmic web, connecting the growth of stellar mass to the assembly of dark matter haloes over two thirds of the history of the Universe, and other core goals of CASTOR’s legacy surveys. These image simulations and the tools developed to generate them will be a vital planning tool to estimate CASTOR’s performance and iterate the telescope and survey designs prior to launch.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantification of regional net CO 2 flux errors in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 model intercomparison project (MIP) ensemble using airborne measurements

Inverse model intercomparison projects (MIPs) provide a chance to assess the uncertainties in inversion estimates arising from various sources. However, accurately quantifying ensemble CO 2 flux errors remains challenging and often relies on the ensemble spread. This study proposes a method for quantifying the errors in regional net surface–atmosphere CO 2 flux estimates from models taken from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 MIP by using independent airborne CO 2 measurements for the period 2015–2017. We first calculate the root mean square error (RMSE) between the ensemble mean of posterior CO 2 concentrations and airborne observations and then isolate the CO 2 concentration errors caused solely by the ensemble mean of posterior net fluxes by subtracting the observation, representation, and transport errors from seven regions. Our analysis reveals that the flux errors projected onto CO 2 space account for 55 %–85 % of the regional average RMSE over the 3 years, ranging from 0.88 to 1.91 ppm. In five regions, the error estimates based on observations exceed those computed from the ensemble spread of posterior fluxes by a factor of 1.33–1.93, implying an underestimation of the actual flux errors, while their magnitudes are comparable in two regions. The adjoint sensitivity analysis identifies that the underestimation of flux errors is prominent where the magnitudes of fossil fuel emissions exceed those of terrestrial-biosphere fluxes by a factor of 3–31 over the 3 years. This suggests the presence of systematic biases in the inversion estimates associated with errors in the prescribed fossil fuel emissions common to all models. Our study emphasizes the value of airborne measurements for quantifying regional errors in ensemble net CO 2 flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗