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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Power System Frequency Dynamics Modeling, State Estimation, and Control using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) and Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) Machine Learning Approaches

With the global energy transition of the electric power system, grid control, supervision, and protection is becoming more challenging. With the increasing integration of renewable energy sources (RES), the system dynamics are changing, causing traditional power system dynamic modeling with swing equation-based modeling approaches to fail. Additionally, the converter-dominated power grid is decreasing the system inertia, making the power system more fragile to the frequency swings. This paper first investigates and compares the application of a model-based Kalman filter state estimation approach with (i) a model-free machine learning approach --- neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) --- and (ii) a data-driven system identification (SysId) approach to model and infer critical state values of the power system frequency dynamics. Then a model predictive control (MPC) framework is compared to a model-free Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) reinforcement learning (RL) control algorithm in providing efficient fast frequency response (FFR) to the power system frequency dynamics. The approaches are compared in terms of their performance goals as well as their per-timestep computational efficiency. Furthermore, the comparative study for state estimation shows that for the model-free requirement, both NODEs and SysId can provide accurate state estimates; however, with increasing model complexity, NODEs can be a better choice for model identification. Similarly, the results from the FFR comparative study show that the SAC RL-based FFR, once trained, outperforms MPC with better control signals and faster computation time, making the SAC RL-based FFR better option for providing FFR to the power system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1979

Large scale state estimation algorithms for DSN tracking station location determination

Estimation of precise tracking station locations for deep space navigation is based on combining state estimates derived from a multitude of planetary encounter missions with planet direction information provided by the planetary ephemeris. Procedures for reducing the dimensionality of the station location estimation problem and for analytically correcting estimates for ephemeris updates have been developed. Using Householder transforms the large scale state estimation problem is decomposed into a sequence of dynamically uncoupled problems of lower dimension. The effect of an ephemeris update is shown to be adequately approximated by Brouwer-Clemence Set III perturbations for the earth-moon barycenter and the target planet for each mission.

Ellis, J.↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Game-Theoretic Data-Driven Approach for Pseudo-Measurement Generation in Distribution System State Estimation

In this paper, we present an efficient computational framework with the purpose of generating weighted pseudo-measurements to improve the quality of distribution system state estimation (DSSE) and provide observability with advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) against unobservable customers and missing data. The proposed technique is based on a game-theoretic expansion of relevance vector machines (RVMs). This platform is able to estimate the nodal power consumption and quantify its uncertainty while reducing the prohibitive computational burden of model training for large AMI datasets. To achieve this objective, the large training set is decomposed and distributed among multiple parallel learning entities. The resulting estimations from the parallel RVMs are then combined using a game-theoretic model based on the idea of repeated games with vector payoff. It is observed that through this approach and by exploiting the seasonal changes in customers’ behavior the accuracy of pseudo-measurements can be considerably improved, while introducing robustness against bad training data samples. The proposed pseudo-measurement generation model is integrated into a DSSE using a closed-loop information system, which takes advantage of a branch current state estimator (BCSE) to further improve the performance of the designed machine learning framework. This method has been tested on a practical distribution feeder model with smart meter data for verification.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Resilient distributed state estimation with mobile agents: overcoming Byzantine adversaries, communication losses, and intermittent measurements

Applications in environmental monitoring, surveillance and patrolling typically require a network of mobile agents to collectively gain information regarding the state of a static or dynamical process evolving over a region. However, these networks of mobile agents also introduce various challenges, including intermittent observations of the dynamical process, loss of communication links due to mobility and packet drops, and the potential for malicious or faulty behavior by some of the agents. The main contribution of this paper is the development of resilient, fully-distributed, and provably correct state estimation algorithms that simultaneously account for each of the above considerations, and in turn, offer a general framework for reasoning about state estimation problems in dynamic, failure-prone and adversarial environments. Specifically, we develop a simple switched linear observer for dealing with the issue of time-varying measurement models, and resilient filtering techniques for dealing with worst-case adversarial behavior subject to time-varying communication patterns among the agents. Here, our approach considers both communication patterns that recur in a deterministic manner, and patterns that are induced by random packet drops. For each scenario, we identify conditions on the dynamical system, the patrols, the nominal communication network topology, and the failure models that guarantee applicability of our proposed techniques. Finally, we complement our theoretical results with detailed simulations that illustrate the efficacy of our algorithms in the presence of the technical challenges described above.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Multi-Model Adaptive Kalman Filtering Approach to Power System Dynamic State Estimation

Accurate information about dynamic states (such as rotor angle and speed of a synchronous machine) is important for monitoring and controlling power system rotor-angle stability. In this paper, a multi-model adaptive Kalman filtering (MMAKF) approach is proposed to accurately and robustly estimate power system dynamic states. This approach consists of three major steps: (i) multiple Kalman filtering approaches, i.e., the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF), ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), and cubature Kalman filter (CKF), are run concurrently in parallel to estimate the dynamic states of a synchronous generator using phasor measurement unit data; (ii) probability indexes, which quantify the likelihood of each estimation model, are determined at each time step using hypothesis testing based on the measurement innovation; (iii) the a posteriori estimate of states is obtained using the best-fix approach. The two-area four-machine system is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed MMAKF approach. It is shown through the Monte-Carlo method that the estimation accuracy and robustness of the proposed approach is better than those from any individual filtering algorithm.

multi-model adaptive Kalman Filtering, Power Syste↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Regression for States Estimation and Forecasting in Power Grids

Real-time state estimation and forecasting are critical for the efficient operation of power grids. In this paper, a physics-informed Gaussian process regression (PhI-GPR) method is presented and used for forecasting and estimating the phase angle, angular speed, and wind mechanical power of a three-generator power grid system using sparse measurements. In standard data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR), parameterized models for the prior statistics are fit by maximizing the marginal likelihood of observed data. In the PhI-GPR method, we propose to compute the prior statistics offline by solving stochastic differential equations (SDEs) governing the power grid dynamics. The short-term forecast of a power grid system dominated by wind generation is complicated by the stochastic nature of the wind and the resulting uncertainty in wind mechanical power. Here, we assume that the power grid dynamics are governed by swing equations, with the wind mechanical power fluctuating randomly in time. We solve these equations for the mean and covariances of the power grid states using the Monte Carlo simulation method. We demonstrate that the proposed PhI-GPR method can accurately forecast and estimate observed and unobserved states. For the considered problem, PhI-GPR has computational advantages over the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method: In PhI-GPR, ensembles are computed offline and independently of the data acquisition process, whereas for EnFK, ensembles are computed online with data acquisition, rendering real-time forecast more challenging. We also demonstrate that the PhI-GPR forecast is more accurate than the EnKF forecast when the random mechanical wind power is non-Markovian. In contrast, the two methods produce similar forecasts for the Markovian mechanical wind power. For observed states, we show that PhI-GPR provides a forecast comparable to the standard data-driven GPR; both forecasts are significantly more accurate than the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecast. We also show that the ARIMA forecast is more sensitive to observation frequency and measurement errors than the PhI-GPR forecast.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Improving Performance of Multi-Area State Estimation Using Spectral Clustering

This paper investigates the problem of dividing a large power system into several areas to be solved by a state estimator which coordinates locally obtained decentralized estimates. By applying automatic partitioning to the utility system, the performance of the distributed state estimator can be improved as compared to the pre-defined utility control areas. The presented approach utilizes the spectral properties of the un-directed graph formed by assigning a vertex to every bus and an edge to every pair of buses connected by a line. The graph Laplacian matrix and associated eigenvectors and eigenvalues are used to cluster the graph vertices in such a way that each area has a large number of internal connections, but a small number of external connections. This approach is demonstrated using the IEEE 118 bus system.

Kelle, David↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dynamic State Estimation for Multi-Machine Power System by Unscented Kalman Filter With Enhanced Numerical Stability

In this paper, in order to enhance the numerical stability of the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) used for power system dynamic state estimation, a new UKF with guaranteed positive semidifinite estimation error covariance (UKFGPS) is proposed and compared with five existing approaches, including UKFschol, UKF-kappa, UKFmodified, UKF-Delta Q, and the squareroot UKF (SRUKF). These methods and the extended Kalman filter (EKF) are tested by performing dynamic state estimation on WSCC 3-machine 9-bus system and NPCC 48-machine 140-bus system. For WSCC system, all methods obtain good estimates. However, for NPCC system, both EKF and the classic UKF fail. It is found that UKFschol, UKF-kappa, and UKF-Delta Q do not work well in some estimations while UKFGPS works well in most cases. UKFmodified and SRUKF can always work well, indicating their better scalability mainly due to the enhanced numerical stability.

dynamic state estimation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Matrix Completion Based State Estimation in Distribution Grids

The power distribution network is undergoing tremendous transformation due to an increase in the penetration of renewable energy resources and electric vehicles. These changes have resulted in greater uncertainty and dynamics in the distribution grid states. Therefore, the ability to track and monitor system states has become a critical need for accurate and timely control actions. In this paper, we propose two dynamic sparsity-based state estimation approaches for distribution systems: (1) locally weighted matrix completion (LW-MC) and (2) Bayesian matrix completion with Kalman filter prediction (BMC-KF). The performance of the proposed dynamic state estimation strategies is compared with the classic/static matrix completion (static-MC) approach using the IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 bus test systems. Finally, results indicate that BMC-KF approach outperforms both LW-MC as well as static-MC even when 30% of the measurement data is available. Computational complexity associated with both approaches is quantified.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2012

Linear Covariance Analysis and Epoch State Estimators

This paper extends in two directions the results of prior work on generalized linear covariance analysis of both batch least-squares and sequential estimators. The first is an improved treatment of process noise in the batch, or epoch state, estimator with an epoch time that may be later than some or all of the measurements in the batch. The second is to account for process noise in specifying the gains in the epoch state estimator. We establish the conditions under which the latter estimator is equivalent to the Kalman filter.

Markley, F. Landis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Secure State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements for Coordinated Cyber Attack Detection in Active Distribution Systems

Coordinated cyber attacks tamper with measurement data to disrupt the situational awareness of active distribution systems. Various sensors report measurements asynchronously at different rates, which introduces challenges during state estimation. In addition, this forces cyber intruders to exert greater effort to compromise multiple communication channels and launch coordinated attacks. Therefore, multi-channel and asynchronous measurements could be harnessed to develop more secure cyber defense strategies. In this paper, a prediction-correction-based multi-rate observer is designed to exploit the value of asynchronous measurements for the detection of coordinated false data injection (FDI) attacks. First, a time-function-dependent prediction-correction strategy is proposed to adjust the sampling interval for each sensor’s measurement. Then, an observer is designed based on the trade-off between estimation error and the optimal period of the most recent sampling instant, with the convergence of estimation error with the maximum permitted sampling interval. Moreover, the conditions for exponential stability are developed using the Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional technique. Next, a coordinated FDI attack detection strategy is developed based on the dual nonlinear minimization problem. The proposed attack detection and secure state estimation strategies are tested on the IEEE 13-node system. Simulation results show that these schemes are effective in enhancing attack detection based on asynchronous measurements or compromised data.

asynchronous measurements↗
NASA NTRS1991

On state estimation for an orbiting single tether system

The effects of instrumentation accuracy and configuration on estimation error are studied for the small expendable-tether deployment system (SEDS) using a continuous-discrete extended Kalman filter (CDEKF) state estimator. A twelfth order model that incorporates the rigid body modes of the tether as well as the satellite attitude dynamics is developed. Simulation results using the model and the estimator indicate that the originally planned instrumentation package could not estimate the state vector adequately. Recommendations are made and results presented that reduce the estimation error by adding instruments and increasing selected measurement accuracies.

Greene, Michael E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Integrated system identification and modal state estimation for control of flexible space structures

A novel approach of integrated system identification and modal state estimation is proposed for control of linear dynamical systems including flexible space structures. There are four steps involved in this approach. First, the relation between a stochastic state space model of a dynamical system and the coefficients of its autoregressive model with exogenous input is derived. Second, an adaptive least-squares transversal predictor is used to estimate the coefficients of the model. Third, a state space model and a steady state Kalman filter gain of the dynamical system are then identified from the coefficients of the model by using the eigensystem realization algorithm. Fourth, a modal state estimator is constructed using the modal parameters of the identified model. On-line implementation of this algorithm can continually improve the modal parameters and the filter gain. It can also gradually update the system model when the system characteristics are slowly changing. A numerical example is used to illustrate the feasibility of the new approach.

Chen, Chung-Wen↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Scalable Meter Placement Method for Distribution System State Estimation

This paper studies the optimal meter placement problem for distribution system state estimation given limited measurement resources. We formulate the problem as a mixed integer semi-definite programming that minimizes the worst case estimation errors over a set of operating points. To solve the problem, we first relax the problem as a convex optimization problem. Motivated by the lack of scalability of existing solvers, we next leverage the special structure of the cost function and propose an algorithm based on barrier method that solves the problem with significantly better numerical performance. The proposed method has been validated on the IEEE 13-bus, IEEE 123-bus, and IEEE 8,500-bus feeders.

barrier method↗
NASA NTRS1980

State estimation and absolute image registration for geosynchronous satellites

Spacecraft state estimation and the absolute registration of Earth images acquired by cameras onboard geosynchronous satellites are described. The basic data type of the procedure consists of line and element numbers of image points called landmarks whose geodetic coordinates, relative to United States Geodetic Survey topographic maps, are known. A conventional least squares process is used to estimate navigational parameters and camera pointing biases from observed minus computed landmark line and element numbers. These estimated parameters along with orbit and attitude dynamic models are used to register images, using an automated grey level correlation technique, inside the span represented by the landmark data. In addition, the dynamic models can be employed to register images outside of the data span in a near real time mode. An important application of this mode is in support of meteorological studies where rapid data reduction is required for the rapid tracking and predicting of dynamic phenomena.

Nankervis, R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solving Optimal Power Flow for Distribution Networks with State Estimation Feedback

Conventional optimal power flow (OPF) solvers assume full observability of the involved system states. However in practice, there is a lack of reliable system monitoring devices in the distribution networks. To close the gap between the theoretic algorithm design and practical implementation, this work proposes to solve the OPF problems based on the state estimation (SE) feedback for the distribution networks where only a part of the involved system states are physically measured. The SE feedback increases the observability of the under-measured system and provides more accurate system states monitoring when the measurements are noisy. We analytically investigate the convergence of the proposed algorithm. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach is more robust to large pseudo measurement variability and inherent sensor noise in comparison to the other frameworks without SE feedback.

distirbution systems↗