Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Statistical Learning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8

Simultaneous prediction of structural properties in epitaxially–grown GaN with quantum and conventional multi–output learning algorithms

Hundreds of GaN thin film crystal plasma–assisted molecular beam epitaxy synthesis experiment records spanning two decades were organized into a dataset correlating the growth experiment design parameters with discrete, binary determinations of crystallinity and surface morphology. Conventional data science techniques as well as both quantum and classical multi–output supervised machine learning algorithms were implemented to investigate the relationships between the operating parameter data and the structural figures of merit. Correlation coefficients, decision tree nodes, p–values, and SHAP values all support substrate temperature and gallium effusion cell conditions as being statistically significant for simultaneously influencing GaN crystallinity and surface morphology. Here, a conventional deep neural network learned best from the data, followed by a quantum–classical hybrid gradient boosting algorithm. When combined with calculations of uncertainty intervals based on VennAbers predictors, machine learning predictions of both structural properties show good agreement with results reported in published experimental literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Machine learning for single-ended event reconstruction in PROSPECT experiment

The Precision Reactor Oscillation and Spectrum Experiment, PROSPECT, was a segmented antineutrino detector that successfully operated at the High Flux Isotope Reactor in Oak Ridge, TN, during its 2018 run. Despite challenges with photomultiplier tube base failures affecting some segments, innovative machine learning approaches were employed to perform position and energy reconstruction, and particle classification. This work highlights the effectiveness of convolutional neural networks and graph convolutional networks in enhancing data analysis. By leveraging these techniques, a 3.3% increase in effective statistics was achieved compared to traditional methods, showcasing their potential to improve analysis performance. Furthermore, these machine learning methodologies offer promising applications for other segmented particle detectors, underscoring their versatility and impact.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION

Effect of Solvent on the Local Structure, Dynamics, and Vibrational Density of States in Sn-BEA Zeolite

Lewis acid zeolites are attractive catalysts for epoxidation and biomass valorization, as they are highly active and selective in the liquid phase and can operate at or near ambient conditions. While a rich experimental literature exists on liquid-phase Lewis acid zeolite catalysis, our understanding of the molecular organization and solvent dynamics in the vicinity of Lewis acid sites with differing metal site speciation remains limited. In this work, we investigate the molecular coordination and diffusion of two common solvents (methanol and water) around the closed and open Sn-BEA zeolite active sites using molecular dynamics simulations with a machine-learned interatomic potential trained on ab initio molecular dynamics trajectories. Molecular dynamics simulations reveal that introducing active sites significantly enhances local order in the first and second solvation shells compared to the pure silica case. For methanol, both closed and open active sites are singly coordinated, while more than two water molecules coordinate the open site. In contrast to methanol, we observed that water molecules dissociate, leading to the formation of additional Sn-OH and silanol groups away from the active site. The diffusion coefficients of water and methanol are functions of the solvent population in the pore. Here, our work provides insights into how active site speciation in Lewis acid zeolites affects solvent coordination, diffusion, and vibrational signature. This information is foundational for catalyst design and optimization of liquid-phase catalytic processes in zeolites. It also demonstrates the suitability of machine-learned interatomic potentials for modeling reactive systems, enabling sufficiently long trajectories for appropriate statistical averaging.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Measurement of off-shell Higgs boson production in the $H^*\rightarrow ZZ\rightarrow 4\ell$ decay channel using a neural simulation-based inference technique in 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of off-shell Higgs boson production in the $H^*\to ZZ\to 4\ell$ decay channel is presented. The measurement uses 140 fb −1 of proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider and supersedes the previous result in this decay channel using the same dataset. The data analysis is performed using a neural simulation-based inference method, which builds per-event likelihood ratios using neural networks. The observed (expected) off-shell Higgs boson production signal strength in the $ZZ\to 4\ell$ decay channel at 68% CL is $0.87^{+0.75}_{-0.54}$ ($1.00^{+1.04}_{-0.95}$ ). The evidence for off-shell Higgs boson production using the $ZZ\to 4\ell$ decay channel has an observed (expected) significance of 2.5σ (1.3σ). The expected result represents a significant improvement relative to that of the previous analysis of the same dataset, which obtained an expected significance of 0.5σ. When combined with the most recent ATLAS measurement in the $ZZ\to 2\ell 2\nu$ decay channel, the evidence for off-shell Higgs boson production has an observed (expected) significance of 3.7σ (2.4σ). The off-shell measurements are combined with the measurement of on-shell Higgs boson production to obtain constraints on the Higgs boson total width. The observed (expected) value of the Higgs boson width at 68% CL is $4.3^{+2.7}_{-1.9}$ ($4.1^{+3.5}_{-3.4}$ ) MeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

Computing the Critical Temperature of the Affine-Transformed $D=3$ Ising Model Using Masked Autoregressive Flow

The simple Ising model provides a rich environment to build and study lattice field theories. As part of an ongoing project to construct a conformal field theory (CFT) on an arbitrarily curved manifold, in this work we develop methods to measure the critical temperature $β_c$ of the affine-transformed Ising model on the face-centered cubic (FCC) lattice. The main challenge in this endeavor is finding a computationally efficient and accurate method of interpolating and extrapolating Monte Carlo observables with respect to coupling coefficients and temperature. Herein, we compare two such methods. A traditional statistical approach uses the multiple histogram (MH) method, while a newer machine learning approach uses a masked autoregressive flow (MAF) to estimate the underlying probability density function of a set of observables. While the MH method is specifically designed to interpolate and extrapolate Monte Carlo observables, we find that MAF is a viable alternative for measuring $β_c$ with a computational cost that scales more favorably. Furthermore, we comment on additional advantages of MAF relevant to our work, such as extrapolating in system volume.

Svenson, Kai [Texas U.]

Leveraging transfer learning and leaf spectroscopy for leaf trait prediction with broad spatial, species, and temporal applicability

Accurate and reliable prediction of leaf traits is crucial for understanding plant adaptations to environmental variation, monitoring terrestrial ecosystems, and enhancing comprehension of functional diversity and ecosystem functioning. Currently, various approaches (e.g., statistical, physical models) have been developed to estimate leaf traits through hyperspectral remote sensing and leaf spectroscopy. However, the absence of high-performing, transferable, and stable models across various domains of space, plant functional types (PFTs) and seasons hinder our ability to quantify and comprehend spatiotemporal variations in leaf traits. This study proposes robust and highly transferable models for better predicting leaf traits with hyperspectral reflectance. Initially, three datasets were assembled, pairing common leaf traits — chlorophyll (Chla+b), carotenoids (Ccar), leaf mass per area (LAM), equivalent water thickness (EWT) — with leaf spectra measurements collected across diverse geographic locations in the U.S. and Europe, PFTs, and seasons. Measurements were acquired using spectroradiometers (e.g., ASD FieldSpec 3/4/Pro and SVC HR-1024i) with integrating spheres, leaf clips, and contact probes. Here, we then developed transfer learning-based hybrid models that incorporated the domain knowledge of radiative transfer models (RTMs) through pretraining processes and were well-constrained by fine-tuning with field measurements. Through comparison with other state-of-the-art statistical models, including partial-least squares regression (PLSR) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), as well as pure physical models, we found that the proposed transfer learning models achieved better predictive performance and higher transferability. Specifically, compared to other statistical models and pure RTMs, the transfer learning model exhibited higher coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values with range of 0.01 to 0.79, lower normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) with range of 0.06 % to 33.25 % in model performance. Additionally, the models exhibited improved transferability, with higher R 2 values range from 0.04 to 0.32, lower NRMSE range from 0.08 % to 30.81 %. The findings underscore that transfer learning models through integrating domain knowledge from RTMs and limited observations, can harness the advantages of both RTMs and statistical models and serve as a promising approach for effectively predicting leaf traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

U-net architected deep material network training with microstructure local field information

The Deep Material Network (DMN) has recently emerged as a powerful reduced-order modeling framework for simulating the mechanical response of heterogeneous materials such as composites. Unlike most data-driven approaches that directly learn a material’s response under prescribed loading, the DMN acts as a homogenization operator, learning the kinematic constraints and mechanical interactions of the underlying microstructure. However, traditional DMN training relies exclusively on homogenized effective properties derived from Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS), discarding the rich local field data that govern microstructural interactions. In this work, we extend the DMN framework to incorporate such local field information into the offline training process. Utilizing a U-Net architecture, we augment the DMN training objective to include the first and second statistical moments of the local stress fields obtained from linear DNS. This ensures that the learned network topology not only fits the effective stiffness but also accurately reflects the internal local stress and strain partitioning of the microstructure. The results confirm that supervising the localization process during training yields a superior surrogate model, reducing local prediction errors by an order of magnitude and significantly improving generalization to unseen nonlinear constitutive behaviors compared to traditional DMNs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Generalization error guaranteed auto-encoder-based nonlinear model reduction for operator learning

Many physical processes in science and engineering are naturally represented by operators between infinite-dimensional function spaces. The problem of operator learning, in this context, seeks to extract these physical processes from empirical data, which is challenging due to the infinite or high dimensionality of data. An integral component in addressing this challenge is model reduction, which reduces both the data dimensionality and problem size. In this paper, we utilize low-dimensional nonlinear structures in model reduction by investigating Auto-Encoder-based Neural Network (AENet). AENet first learns the latent variables of the input data and then learns the transformation from these latent variables to corresponding output data. Our numerical experiments validate the ability of AENet to accurately learn the solution operator of nonlinear partial differential equations. Furthermore, we establish a mathematical and statistical estimation theory that analyzes the generalization error of AENet. Finally, our theoretical framework shows that the sample complexity of training AENet is intricately tied to the intrinsic dimension of the modeled process, while also demonstrating the robustness of AENet to noise.

Auto-encoder

Integrated machine learning-molecular dynamics framework for electrolyte property prediction

Electrochemical stability windows determine the operating range of battery electrolytes, yet accurate prediction remains challenging because stability emerges from statistical ensembles of local solvation environments rather than single ground-state molecular structures. Traditional density functional theory calculations on energy-minimized clusters cannot capture the thermal variations in local coordination environments and geometries that govern decomposition, while SMILES-based machine learning methods lack explicit representation of three-dimensional solvation structure and ion pairing. Here, we introduce a structure-aware machine learning framework that predicts frontier orbital energies (HOMO and LUMO) directly from molecular dynamics-sampled solvation configurations, achieving sub-0.6 eV accuracy at computational costs 3–4 orders of magnitude lower than first-principles methods. Across twelve representative battery electrolytes, we demonstrate that solvent-separated and contact ion pairs exhibit strong size- and local chemistry dependent electronic stability, with variations in coordination shifts of HOMO or LUMO level by 2–3 eV, and that extended solvation structure and partially desolvated environment further modulate stability by up to 3 eV. By encoding the statistical nature of electrochemical failure through ensemble sampling of explicit solvation geometries, our approach enables high-throughput screening and rational design of next-generation battery electrolytes with mechanistic understanding of structure–property relationships.

Energy - Storage

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000

Development of physics-consistent conditional diffusion model to overcome data scarcity in critical heat flux

Deep generative modeling provides a powerful pathway to overcome data scarcity in energy-related applications where experimental data are often limited. By learning the underlying probability distribution of the training dataset, deep generative models, such as the diffusion model, can generate high-fidelity synthetic samples that statistically resemble the training data. Such synthetic data generation can significantly enrich the size and diversity of the available training data, and more importantly, improve the robustness of downstream machine learning models in predictive tasks. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of diffusion models for overcoming data scarcity in nuclear energy applications. By leveraging a public dataset on critical heat flux which covers a wide range of commercial nuclear reactor operational conditions, we developed a diffusion model that can generate an arbitrary amount of synthetic samples. Since a vanilla diffusion model can only generate samples randomly, we also developed a conditional diffusion model capable of generating targeted critical heat flux data under user-specified thermal-hydraulic conditions. The performance of the diffusion model was evaluated based on its ability to capture empirical feature distributions and pair-wise correlations, as well as to maintain physical consistency. The results showed that both the diffusion model and conditional diffusion model can successfully generate realistic and physics-consistent critical heat flux data. Furthermore, uncertainty quantification results demonstrate that the conditional diffusion model is highly effective in augmenting critical heat flux data while maintaining acceptable levels of uncertainty.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Signal-preserving CMB component separation with machine learning

Analysis of microwave sky signals, such as the cosmic microwave background, often requires component separation using multifrequency methods, whereby different signals are isolated according to their different frequency behaviors. Many so-called blind methods, such as the internal linear combination (ILC), make minimal assumptions about the spatial distribution of the signal or contaminants, and only assume knowledge of the frequency dependence of the signal. The ILC produces a minimum-variance linear combination of the measured frequency maps. In the case of Gaussian, statistically isotropic fields, this is the optimal linear combination, as the variance is the only statistic of interest. However, in many cases the signal we wish to isolate, or the foregrounds we wish to remove, are non-Gaussian and/or statistically anisotropic (in particular for the case of Galactic foregrounds). In such cases, it is possible that machine learning (ML) techniques can be used to exploit the non-Gaussian features of the foregrounds and thereby improve component separation. However, many ML techniques require the use of complex, difficult-to-interpret operations on the data. We propose a hybrid method whereby we train an ML model using only combinations of the data that , and combine the resulting ML-predicted foreground estimate with the ILC solution to reduce the error from the ILC. We demonstrate our methods on simulations of extragalactic temperature and Galactic polarization foregrounds and show that our ML model can exploit non-Gaussian features, such as point sources and spatially varying spectral indices, to produce lower-variance maps than ILC—e.g., reducing the variance of the B-mode residual by factors of up to 5—while preserving the signal of interest in an unbiased manner. Moreover, we often find improved performance even when applying our ML technique to foreground models on which it was not trained. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

McCarthy, Fiona (ORCID:0000000253893565)

Autonomous Electrochemistry Platform with Real-Time Normality Testing of Voltammetry Measurements Using ML

Electrochemistry workflows utilize various instruments and computing systems to execute workflows consisting of electrocatalyst synthesis, testing and evaluation tasks. The heterogeneity of the software and hardware of these ecosystems makes it challenging to orchestrate a complete workflow from production to characterization by automating its tasks. We propose an autonomous electrochemistry computing platform for a multi-site ecosystem that provides the services for remote experiment steering, real-time measurement transfer, and AI/ML-driven analytics. We describe the integration of a mobile robot and synthesis workstation into the ecosystem by developing custom hub-networks and software modules to support remote operations over the ecosystem’s wireless and wired networks. We describe a workflow task for generating I-V voltammetry measurements using a potentiostat, and a machine learning framework to ensure their normality by detecting abnormal conditions such as disconnected electrodes. We study a number of machine learning methods for the underlying detection problem, including smooth, non-smooth, structural and statistical methods, and their fusers. We present experimental results to illustrate the effectiveness of this platform, and also validate the proposed ML method by deriving its rigorous generalization equations.

Alnajjar, Anees

Search for squarks and gluinos in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV and 13.6 TeV in events with $\tau$-leptons, jets and missing transverse momentum using the ATLAS detector

A search for R-parity-conserving supersymmetry in events with large missing transverse momentum, jets and at least one hadronically decaying $\tau$-lepton is presented. Both gluino and squark pair production are considered, with the cascade decay of each gluino or squark producing either a $\tau$-slepton or a $\tau$-sneutrino. Three channels are examined, requiring either exactly one hadronically decaying $\tau$-lepton and no other leptons, exactly one hadronically decaying $\tau$-lepton and at least one other lepton, or two or more hadronically decaying $\tau$-leptons. Analyses in the three channels are optimised independently and combined statistically. Two separate analysis strategies, either a cut-and-count or machine-learning approach, are used. The search uses 140 and 51.8 of pp collision data recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider during 2015–2018 at TeV and 2022–2023 at TeV, respectively. Gluino masses below 2.25 TeV and squark masses up to 1.7 TeV are excluded

Aad, G. [CNRS/IN2P3] (ORCID:0000000266654934)

Calibrating Bayesian generative machine learning for Bayesiamplification

Recently, combinations of generative and Bayesian deep learning have been introduced in particle physics for both fast detector simulation and inference tasks. These neural networks aim to quantify the uncertainty on the generated distribution originating from limited training statistics. The interpretation of a distribution-wide uncertainty however remains ill-defined. We show a clear scheme for quantifying the calibration of Bayesian generative machine learning models. For a Continuous Normalizing Flow applied to a low-dimensional toy example, we evaluate the calibration of Bayesian uncertainties from either a mean-field Gaussian weight posterior, or Monte Carlo sampling network weights, to gauge their behaviour on unsteady distribution edges. Well calibrated uncertainties can then be used to roughly estimate the number of uncorrelated truth samples that are equivalent to the generated sample and clearly indicate data amplification for smooth features of the distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

ClimGen: Learning the Forcing-Response Relationship in Climate System

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is emerging as a potential geoengineering strategy to address the anthropogenic impact on climate, but its effective implementation requires an iterative and large ensemble of highly accurate and efficient climate projections. Traditional climate projections rely on executing computationally demanding and time-consuming numerical climate models. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) aim to enhance these approaches by emulating traditional methods. In this work, we propose a novel framework for directly learning the relationship between solar radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere and the corresponding surface temperature response. To evaluate the feasibility of this direct ML-based projection, we developed a dataset using an intermediate complexity model, incorporating a comprehensive suite of different forcing patterns and evaluation metrics to rigorously assess the ML model’s performance. We introduce a Conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (cDDPM) for this task, which demonstrates encouraging skill in representing climate statistics under previously unseen forcing patterns. This approach provides a promising pathway for direct climate projections by accurately learning the forcing-response relationship, with a wide range of applications in impact mitigation, emissions policy design, and SRM strategies.

Chen, Tse-Chun [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)] (ORCID:

A Parameter-masked Mock Data Challenge for Beyond-two-point Galaxy Clustering Statistics

The past few years have seen the emergence of a wide array of novel techniques for analyzing high-precision data from upcoming galaxy surveys, which aim to extend the statistical analysis of galaxy clustering data beyond the linear regime and the canonical two-point (2pt) statistics. We test and benchmark some of these new techniques in a community data challenge named “Beyond-2pt,” initiated during the Aspen 2022 Summer Program “Large-Scale Structure Cosmology beyond 2-Point Statistics,” whose first round of results we present here. The challenge data set consists of high-precision mock galaxy catalogs for clustering in real space, in redshift space, and on a light cone. Participants in the challenge have developed end-to-end pipelines to analyze mock catalogs and extract unknown (“masked”) cosmological parameters of the underlying ΛCDM models with their methods. The methods represented are density-split clustering, nearest neighbor statistics, BACCO power spectrum emulator, void statistics, LEFTfield field-level inference using effective field theory (EFT), and joint power spectrum and bispectrum analyses using both EFT and simulation-based inference. In this work, we review the results of the challenge, focusing on problems solved, lessons learned, and future research needed to perfect the emerging beyond-2pt approaches. The unbiased parameter recovery demonstrated in this challenge by multiple statistics and the associated modeling and inference frameworks supports the credibility of cosmology constraints from these methods. The challenge data set is publicly available, and we welcome future submissions from methods that are not yet represented.

Krause, Elisabeth [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (U

The Art of Automation: Translating Electron Microscopy Workflows Into Automated Processes

Acquiring data using a scanning transmission electron microscope (STEM) is a complex, multi-step process. The intricacy of the process depends on the type of sample, composition of the material, desired results of the experiment, resolution requirement and other experimental factors. Each experiment presents unique complications, such as sample drift and contamination, that the microscopist must consider when acquiring data. All these challenges are handled fluidly and expertly by experienced microscopists, but to reach new levels of innovation in material development, including greater reproducibility, throughput, and precision, the automation of these workflows is essential. The initial phase of this work involved translating intuition-based workflows into discrete, programmable steps. Some common key stages in STEM workflows are the initial tuning, scanning the sample for areas of interest, and then acquiring the data. Each stage can be broken further into specific parameter adjustments, such as aberration correction and dwell time optimization, depending on the experiment. When deconstructing various experiments each step was assessed for automation feasibility based on the amount of real time operator decisions. There are steps that lend themselves to automation more readily than others, such as course focusing and sample screening, but there is potential for full automation of all stages with time. As an initial step, an automated montage routine was developed, allowing for the efficient acquisition of large portions of the sample without requiring continuous intervention from the operator. The automation of this small process of the procedure demonstrates the value of this capability. A major challenge in automation arises from discrepancies between commanded, reported and actual stage movements. Using systematic tests, stage movement was quantified. This error can be corrected algorithmically for more accurate workflows in the future. Expanding automation capabilities would result in larger, more efficient data acquisition which allows for more robust statistical analysis. Additionally, this work lays the groundwork for a closed loop system where machine learning algorithms would intake automatically acquired data and make real time decisions. By progressively automating this instrument, this work establishes the foundation for fully automated experimentation in transmission electron microscopy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING