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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Data and code for Daily and Multi-Day Extreme Rainfall Analysis Under Future Climates Using Stochastic Storm Transposition and NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Over CONUS

This data package provides inputs, codes, and outputs for a comprehensive analysis of projected changes in extreme precipitation across 10 regions of the continental United States, using 34 downscaled Earth System Models (ESMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset. These models are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a coordinated climate modeling framework widely used to assess climate change impacts. The analysis applies a stochastic storm transposition method to quantify changes in extreme rainfall under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios—SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions)—compared to historical conditions (1995–2014 vs. 2081–2100). The dataset includes rainfall depth estimates for extreme events with return periods from 2 to 500 years across multiple storm durations (1, 3, and 5 days) for each of the 10 U.S. regions. Weighted ensemble statistics are derived from individual ESM performance against historical precipitation patterns, enabling robust uncertainty quantification through both sign-based and permutation-test-based model agreement assessments. Key analyses address: (1) relative changes in extreme precipitation for each climate scenario, (2) differences between SSP scenarios (SSP5-8.5 vs. SSP2-4.5), (3) contrasts between rare and frequent events, and (4) variations between multi-day and daily storm durations. The workflow produces ensemble statistics—median, 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles—along with model agreement metrics that identify regions and event types with robust climate change signals. The dataset includes: processed rainfall depth outputs (netCDF format) from the RainyDay Python package, ESM weights from historical performance evaluation using DayMet observations, ensemble statistics across all storm dimensions, and figures summarizing key findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data-driven particle dynamics: Structure-preserving coarse-graining for emergent behavior in non-equilibrium systems

Multiscale systems are ubiquitous in science and technology, but are notoriously challenging to simulate as short spatiotemporal scales must be appropriately linked to emergent bulk physics. When expensive high-dimensional dynamical systems are coarse-grained into low-dimensional models, the entropic loss of information leads to emergent physics which are dissipative, history-dependent, and stochastic. To machine learn coarse-grained dynamics from time-series observations of particle trajectories, we propose a framework using the metriplectic bracket formalism that preserves these properties by construction; most notably, the framework guarantees discrete notions of the first and second laws of thermodynamics, conservation of momentum, and a discrete fluctuation-dissipation balance crucial for capturing non-equilibrium statistics. We introduce the mathematical framework abstractly before specializing to a particle discretization. As labels are generally unavailable for entropic state variables, we introduce a novel self-supervised learning strategy to identify emergent structural variables. We validate the method on benchmark systems and demonstrate its utility on two challenging examples: (1) coarse-graining star polymers at challenging levels of coarse-graining while preserving non-equilibrium statistics, and (2) learning models from high-speed video of colloidal suspensions that capture coupling between local rearrangement events and emergent stochastic dynamics. We provide open-source implementations in both PyTorch and LAMMPS, enabling large-scale inference and extensibility to diverse particle-based systems.

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science (c↗
DOE OSTI2024

FuseIM: Fusing Probabilistic Traversals for Influence Maximization on Exascale Systems

Probabilistic breadth-first traversals (BPTs) are used in many network science and graph machine learning applications. In this paper, we are motivated by the application of BPTs in stochastic diffusion-based graph problems such as influence maximization. These applications heavily rely on BPTs to implement a Monte-Carlo sampling step for their approximations. Given the large sampling complexity, stochasticity of the diffusion process, and the inherent irregularity in real-world graph topologies, efficiently parallelizing these BPTs remains significantly challenging. In this paper, we present a new algorithm to fuse massive number of concurrently executing BPTs with random starts on the input graph. Our algorithm is designed to fuse BPTs by combining separate traversals into a unified frontier on distributed multi-GPU systems. To show the general applicability of the fused BPT technique, we have incorporated it into two state-of-the-art influence maximization parallel implementations (gIM and Ripples). Our experiments on up to 4K nodes of the OLCF Frontier supercomputer (32,768 GPUs and 196K CPU cores) show strong scaling behavior, and that fused BPTs can improve the performance of these implementations up to 34x (for gIM) and ~360x (for Ripples).

Neff, Reece W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

An integrated photonic engine for programmable atomic control

Abstract Solutions for scalable, high-performance optical control are important for the development of scaled atom-based quantum technologies. Modulation of many individual optical beams is central to applying arbitrary gate and control sequences on arrays of atoms or atom-like systems. At telecom wavelengths, miniaturization of optical components via photonic integration has pushed the scale and performance of classical and quantum optics far beyond the limitations of bulk devices. However, material platforms for high-speed telecom integrated photonics lack transparency at the short wavelengths required by leading atomic systems. Here, we propose and implement a scalable and reconfigurable photonic control architecture using integrated, visible-light modulators based on thin-film lithium niobate. We combine this system with techniques in free-space optics and holography to demonstrate multi-channel, gigahertz-rate visible beamshaping. When applied to silicon-vacancy artificial atoms, our system enables the spatial and spectral addressing of a dynamically-selectable set of these stochastically-positioned point emitters.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Control of Differentially Private EV Charging: A Scalable Learning Approach Under Uncertainty

Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled electric vehicles (IoEVs) enable intelligent charging coordination that accounts for grid congestion. However, increased data exchange raises privacy concerns, as charging patterns can reveal sensitive driver behavior to grid operators. Here, we propose a differentially private (DP) EV charging framework that enables coordinated control while protecting driver data with theoretical privacy guarantees. Nevertheless, integrating DP inevitably introduces uncertainty into the control strategy for EVs, which can lead to infeasible solutions. To tackle this challenge, we develop a feasible and scalable control algorithm based on constrained reinforcement learning (CRL) and convex hulls. While our framework is designed to handle the uncertainty introduced by DP, it is general and also applicable to other sources of uncertainty in EV charging, such as the stochastic nature of driver behavior and renewable variability. This ensures feasible and privacy-preserving coordination of EV charging at scale. Our method constructs convex hulls within the action space to guarantee feasibility under stochastic constraints and incorporates constraint reduction techniques to improve scalability. Case studies based on IEEE benchmark systems demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively balances feasibility under uncertainty, scalability, and privacy in large-scale EV charging control.

Engineering - Power transmission and distribution↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking quantum trial wavefunctions for phaseless auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo

The phaseless auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (ph-AFQMC) method is a stochastic imaginary-time projection technique for computing ground-state properties of strongly correlated quantum systems, with accuracy that depends critically on the choice of trial wavefunction. Here, we investigate ph-AFQMC with trial states prepared using parameterized quantum circuits. In this work, we present a comprehensive benchmarking study of quantum trial wavefunctions spanning unitary coupled-cluster, Hamiltonian-informed, Jastrow-inspired, and adaptively constructed ansatze. The benchmarking evaluates accuracy, expressibility, and scalability of these ansatze within the QC-AFQMC framework. We test these ansatze on linear hydrogen chains under bond stretching and find that several ansatz families produce chemically accurate ph-AFQMC energies across the dissociation curve. We have performed simulations using the CUDA-Q quantum development platform on the GPU partition of the Perlmutter supercomputer. When comparing ansatze at similar numbers of variational parameters, we find that different ansatz families yield comparable ph-AFQMC results despite exhibiting substantially different variational energies, optimization costs, and circuit depths. Our results indicate that the variational energy of an ansatz is not always a reliable indicator of its quality for ph-AFQMC and reveal instances of over-parameterization. In the strongly correlated regime, trial wavefunctions obtained from adaptive ansatze, exemplified here by ADAPT-VQE with the UCCSD operator pool, can outperform their fixed-ansatz counterparts (UCCSD) in terms of projected energies while using substantially more compact circuits, providing a flexible route to optimize quantum resources within the ph-AFQMC framework.

Rofougaran, Rod [LBNL, Berkeley; Columbia U.; PNL,↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Non-Nuclear Advanced Controls Testbed Reactor Mockup

The research presented in this report describes our progress in applying stochastic methods and uncertainty quantification, parametric study, and variance-based sensitivity analysis (also known as Sobol sensitivity analysis) to a full-core model of a nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system simulated with Griffin, with the goal of developing a reduced order (surrogate) model which can be rapidly sampled while perturbing multiple input parameters. In this NTP system, reactivity and power feedback affect the rotation of control drums, which are controlled by a hybrid proportional, integral and derivative (PID) controller, actuated by the power demand and reactivity feedback from the numerical model. This model uses reactor kinetic feedback (mean generation time and $\beta$ from a transient Griffin simulation executed with the improved quasi-static method to provide the kinetic parameters) as inputs to functions which control the CD rotation angle. Using a number of stochastic method approaches, we developed a dual purpose training-surrogate model of the NTP system using polynomial regression. The trained model can be rapidly sampled while simultaneously perturbing various input parameters of the model, such as coefficients on the PID control, or temperature (directly affect the neutron cross section). The surrogate model delivers accurate results orders-of-magnitude faster (minutes, not days) than the base model. Once the base model has been trained, distributions of the uncertain parameters can be changed at will to investigate the effects of perturbing multiple inputs and their effect on the output. For example, coefficients used in the PID control system may vary due to some physical interference, or there may be uncertainty in the temperature of the neutron cross sections in various regions of the reactor. A distribution can be placed on these parameters and operational boundaries can be determined. The goal of this work is to support development of an advanced control system to operate CDs in a functioning NTP system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Systems-Level Approach to Address Risks and Ethics in Artificial Intelligence Systems

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing the world, from completely controlling routine or mundane tasks like text and image generation, to powering advanced algorithms that control critical systems. The recent advances in generative AI quickly overwhelmed multiple industries from education to finance as first adopters rushed (and continue to rush) to take advantage of the technology. The expanding AI ecosystem presents novel risks and ethical challenges that must be handled to ensure that technology is leveraged fairly and ethically. There are intertwined risks and ethical challenges stemming from the stochastic nature of AI (i.e., intrinsic risks), as well as from specific applications (i.e., extrinsic risks). Appropriately regulating AI requires a systems-approach to develop an integrated solution to these dependent challenges. Thus far, however, questions of risk, ethics and regulation appear to occupy separate spaces. This paper reviews the risks and ethical implications of AI and proposes a system-level approach to integrating ethics and regulation for the nascent industry.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive PID Gain Scheduling Control for Hydropower Turbine Using Neural CDE and Stochastic Distribution Shaping

This paper introduces a gain-scheduling PID controller design strategy for hydroturbine frequency control mode. This scheme first uses real data to learn the nonlinear dynamics of the hydroturbine using neural controlled differential equations and then perturbs the obtained nonlinear system at different equilibrium points, based on which a static output feedback adaptive dynamic programming algorithm is then used to optimize the PID gains for each equilibrium point. Moreover, a continuous-time version of stochastic distribution control is proposed to further fine-tune the optimized PID gains. Finally, the controller is obtained by implementing linear interpolation between the optimized PID control gains. The simulation results show that the proposed gain-scheduling PID controller can control a larger range of operation points compared with the given fixed PID controller and the baseline method. Compared with the given fixed PID controller, the proposed gain-scheduling PID controller can regulate hydroturbine frequency against disturbances induced by power-load variation with over 50% less overshoot for some operation points.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A score-based diffusion model approach for adaptive learning of stochastic partial differential equation solutions

In this paper, we propose a novel framework for adaptively learning the time-evolving solutions of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) using score-based diffusion models within a recursive Bayesian inference setting. SPDEs play a central role in modeling complex physical systems under uncertainty, but their numerical solutions often suffer from model errors and reduced accuracy due to incomplete physical knowledge and environmental variability. To address these challenges, we encode the governing physics into the score function of a diffusion model using simulation data and incorporate observational information via a likelihood-based correction in a reverse-time stochastic differential equation. This enables adaptive learning through iterative refinement of the solution as new data becomes available. To improve computational efficiency in high-dimensional settings, we introduce the ensemble score filter, a training-free approximation of the score function designed for real-time inference. Numerical experiments on benchmark SPDEs demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method under sparse and noisy observations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Weak-form inference for hybrid dynamical systems in ecology

Species subject to predation and environmental threats commonly exhibit variable periods of population boom and bust over long timescales. Understanding and predicting such behaviour, especially given the inherent heterogeneity and stochasticity of exogenous driving factors over short timescales, is an ongoing challenge. A modelling paradigm gaining popularity in the ecological sciences for such multi-scale effects is to couple short-term continuous dynamics to long-term discrete updates. We develop a data-driven method utilizing weak-form equation learning to extract such hybrid governing equations for population dynamics and to estimate the requisite parameters using sparse intermittent measurements of the discrete and continuous variables. The method produces a set of short-term continuous dynamical system equations parametrized by long-term variables, and long-term discrete equations parametrized by short-term variables, allowing direct assessment of interdependencies between the two timescales. We demonstrate the utility of the method on a variety of ecological scenarios and provide extensive tests using models previously derived for epizootics experienced by the North American spongy moth ( Lymantria dispar dispar ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A control-inspired approach for energy transition planning under uncertainty

As the global carbon footprint continues to grow, many countries are implementing carbon emission reduction policies which have incentivized the expansion of low-carbon and renewable technologies. However, the speed and scale of deployment falls short of that needed to meet climate goals. Energy system models serve as key tools for guiding investment decisions and helping policymakers evaluate the effects of various policies on the development of an energy system. This study focuses on the energy system of the United States and builds upon prior work by incorporating more geographic granularity to account for the trade of commodities and addresses transmission congestion through electricity price adjustments. Furthermore, real-world characteristics, such as delays in constructing new liquid fuel production and electricity generation facilities, are integrated using a sequential decision-making approach that better reflects how decisions can be updated as uncertainties unfold. Results demonstrate that stochastic programming combined with sequential decision-making produces energy transition pathways that are robust to multiple uncertain futures. Additionally, considering real-world characteristics significantly impacts the deployment of renewable technologies and the ability to meet carbon emission reduction goals while also reliably meeting demand. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty and real-world characteristics to avoid overly optimistic projections in energy system planning.

energy systems↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discrete generative diffusion models without stochastic differential equations: A tensor network approach

Diffusion models (DMs) are a class of generative machine learning methods that sample a target distribution by transforming samples of a trivial (often Gaussian) distribution using a learned stochastic differential equation. In standard DMs, this is done by learning a “score function” that reverses the effect of adding diffusive noise to the distribution of interest. Here we consider the generalisation of DMs to lattice systems with discrete degrees of freedom, and where noise is added via Markov chain jump dynamics. We show how to use tensor networks (TNs) to efficiently define and sample such “discrete diffusion models” (DDMs) without explicitly having to solve a stochastic differential equation. We show the following: (i) by parametrising the data and evolution operators as TNs, the denoising dynamics can be represented exactly; (ii) the auto-regressive nature of TNs allows to generate samples efficiently and without bias; (iii) for sampling Boltzmann-like distributions, TNs allow to construct an efficient learning scheme that integrates well with Monte Carlo. We illustrate this approach to study the equilibrium of two models with non-trivial thermodynamics, the d = 1 constrained Fredkin chain and the d = 2 Ising model. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Causer, Luke (ORCID:0000000194243473)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structural decomposition of merger-free galaxies hosting luminous AGNs

ABSTRACT Active galactic nucleus (AGN) growth in disc-dominated, merger-free galaxies is poorly understood, largely due to the difficulty in disentangling the AGN emission from that of the host galaxy. By carefully separating this emission, we examine the differences between AGNs in galaxies hosting a (possibly) merger-grown, classical bulge, and AGNs in secularly grown, truly bulgeless disc galaxies. We use galfit to obtain robust, accurate morphologies of 100 disc-dominated galaxies imaged with the Hubble Space Telescope. Adopting an inclusive definition of classical bulges, we detect a classical bulge component in $53.3 \pm 0.5$ per cent of the galaxies. These bulges were not visible in Sloan Digital Sky Survey photometry, however these galaxies are still unambiguously disc-dominated, with an average bulge-to-total luminosity ratio of $0.1 \pm 0.1$. We find some correlation between bulge mass and black hole mass for disc-dominated galaxies, though this correlation is significantly weaker in comparison to the relation for bulge-dominated or elliptical galaxies. Furthermore, a significant fraction ($\gtrsim 90$ per cent) of our black holes are overly massive when compared to the relationship for elliptical galaxies. We find a weak correlation between total stellar mass and black hole mass for the disc-dominated galaxies, hinting that the stochasticity of black hole–galaxy co-evolution may be higher in disc-dominated than bulge-dominated systems.

Fahey, Matthew J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quenching through the QCD chiral phase transition

We present a detailed numerical and analytical study of the out-of-equilibrium dynamics of Model G, the dynamical universality class relevant to the chiral phase transition. We perform numerical 3D stochastic (Langevin) simulations of the 𝑂⁡(4) critical point for large lattices in the chiral limit. We quench the system from the high-temperature unbroken phase to the broken phase and study the nonequilibrium dynamics of pion fields. Strikingly, the nonequilibrium evolution of the two-point functions exhibits a regime of growth, a parametrically large enhancement, and a subsequent slow relaxation to equilibrium. We analyze our numerical results using dynamic critical scaling and mean-field theory. The growth of the two-point functions is determined by the nonlinear dynamics of an ideal non-Abelian superfluid, which is a limit of Model G that reflects the broken chiral symmetry. We also relate the nonequilibrium two-point functions to a long-lived parametric enhancement of soft pion yields relative to thermal equilibrium following a quench.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Error Cancellation in Analog Quantum Simulation

Analog quantum simulation is a promising path towards solving classically intractable problems in many-body physics on near-term quantum devices. However, the presence of noise limits the size of the system and the length of time that can be simulated. In our work, we consider an error model in which the actual Hamiltonian of the simulator differs from the target Hamiltonian we want to simulate by small local perturbations, which are assumed to be random and unbiased. We analyze the error accumulated in observables in this setting and show that, due to stochastic error cancellation, with high probability the error scales as the square root of the number of qubits instead of linearly. We explore the concentration phenomenon of this error as well as its implications for local observables in the thermodynamic limit. Moreover, we show that stochastic error cancellation also manifests in the fidelity between the target state at the end of time-evolution and the actual state we obtain in the presence of noise. This indicates that, to reach a certain fidelity, more noise can be tolerated than implied by the worst-case bound if the noise comes from many statistically independent sources.

Analog quantum simulation↗