Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Stochastic dynamical systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

235-F GoldSim Fate and Transport Model: Uncertainty Quantification

Building 235-F was configured with two missions in mind: Actinide Billet Line (ABL) and the fabrication of Pu-238 oxide for space program applications. ABL produced Np-237 billets for use in SRS reactors, whereas the design process, fabrication, and examination of Pu-238 oxide powder occurred within the following areas, respectively: Plutonium Experimental Facility (PEF), Plutonium Fuel Form (PuFF), and Old Metallography Lab (OML). By 1990 production ceased and by 2006 de-inventory occurred; however, assays have shown significant holdup remains within ABL and PuFF. As a result, 235-F is a Category 2 nuclear facility, with plans to undergo deactivation and decommission (D and D) via In-Situ Disposal (ISD). The purpose of this project is to ensure United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) groundwater radiation maximum contaminant level (MCL) and dosage standards are met during the D and D of 235-F by quantifying uncertainty through probabilistic modeling and evaluation of various ISD alternatives. GoldSim is a dynamic modeling software package with a graphical, object-oriented interface capable of capturing the influence of complex system input variability on probabilistic system outcomes. A GoldSim stochastic fate and transport model for 235-F was developed and matched with a PORFLOW deterministic model to simulate probabilistic release and flow of radionuclides from ABL and PuFF into the vadose zone, the Upper Three Runs (UTR) Aquifer, and UTR Creek. The GoldSim model was used to probabilistically evaluate four ISD scenarios against USEPA groundwater radiation MCLs and dosage standards. The deterministic 235-F GoldSim fate and transport model continues to be refined to match the results of the PORFLOW deterministic model to ensure the model accurately represents radionuclide movement through the groundwater system. The stochastic variables that are utilized within the GoldSim model are founded on the most current data; a conservative perspective is taken where needed. Alignment with the PORFLOW deterministic model, coupled with input stochastic variability, allows the probabilistic 235-F GoldSim model to capture the conservative breadth of possible outcomes for radionuclide fate within this particular system. This ensures that the USEPA MCLs and dosage limits hold even in the worst case scenarios.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Secure and Adaptive Hierarchical Multi-Timescale Framework for Resilient Load Restoration Using a Community Microgrid

Distribution system integrated community microgrids (CMGs) can partake in restoring loads during extended duration outages. At such times, the CMGs are challenged with limited resource availability, absence of robust grid support, and heightened demand-supply uncertainty. Here, this paper proposes a secure and adaptive three-stage hierarchical multi-timescale framework for scheduling and real-time (RT) dispatch of CMGs with hybrid PV systems to address these challenges. The framework enables the CMG to dynamically expand its boundary to support the neighboring grid sections and is adaptive to the changing forecast error impacts. The first stage solves a stochastic extended duration scheduling (EDS) problem to obtain referral plans for optimal resource rationing. The intermediate near-real-time (NRT) scheduling stage updates the EDS schedule closer to the dispatch time using new obtained forecasts, followed by the RT dispatch stage. To make the decisions more secure and robust against forecast errors, a novel concept called delayed recourse is designed. The approach is evaluated via numerical simulations on a modified IEEE 123-bus system and validated using OpenDSS and hardware-in-loop simulations. The results show superior performance in maximizing load supply and continuous secure distribution network operation under different operating scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing the multisectoral impacts of future global hydrologic variability

There is significant uncertainty in how global water supply will evolve in the future, due to uncertain climate, socioeconomic, and land use change drivers and variability of hydrologic processes. It is critical to characterize the potential impacts of uncertainty in future water supply given its importance for food and energy production. In this work, we introduce a framework that integrates stochastic hydrology and human-environmental systems to characterize uncertainty in future water supply and its multisector impacts. We develop a global stochastic watershed model and demonstrate that this model can generate a large ensemble of realizations of basin-scale runoff with global coverage that preserves the mean, variance, and spatial correlation of a historical benchmark. We couple this model with a well-known human-environmental systems model to explore the impacts of runoff variability on the water and agricultural sectors across spatial scales. We find that the impacts of future hydrologic variability vary across sectors and regions. Impacts are felt most strongly in the water and agricultural sectors for basins that are expected to have unsustainable water use in the future, such as the Indus River basin. For this basin, we find that the variability in future irrigation water withdrawals and irrigated cropland increase over time due to uncertainty in renewable water supply. We also use the Indus basin to show how our stochastic ensemble can be leveraged to explore the global multisector consequences of local extreme runoff conditions. This work introduces a novel technique to explore the propagation of future hydrologic variability across human and natural systems and spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inferring Stochastic Rates from Heterogeneous Snapshots of Particle Positions

Many imaging techniques for biological systems—like fixation of cells coupled with fluorescence microscopy—provide sharp spatial resolution in reporting locations of individuals at a single moment in time but also destroy the dynamics they intend to capture. In this study, these snapshot observations contain no information about individual trajectories, but still encode information about movement and demographic dynamics, especially when combined with a well-motivated biophysical model. The relationship between spatially evolving populations and single-moment representations of their collective locations is well-established with partial differential equations (PDEs) and their inverse problems. However, experimental data is commonly a set of locations whose number is insufficient to approximate a continuous-in-space PDE solution. Here, motivated by popular subcellular imaging data of gene expression, we embrace the stochastic nature of the data and investigate the mathematical foundations of parametrically inferring demographic rates from snapshots of particles undergoing birth, diffusion, and death in a nuclear or cellular domain. Toward inference, we rigorously derive a connection between individual particle paths and their presentation as a Poisson spatial process. Using this framework, we investigate the properties of the resulting inverse problem and study factors that affect quality of inference. One pervasive feature of this experimental regime is the presence of cell-to-cell heterogeneity. Rather than being a hindrance, we show that cell-to-cell geometric heterogeneity can increase the quality of inference on dynamics for certain parameter regimes. Altogether, the results serve as a basis for more detailed investigations of subcellular spatial patterns of RNA molecules and other stochastically evolving populations that can only be observed for single instants in their time evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Machine Learning Assisted Development of a Model for the Populations of Convective and Stratiform Clouds

Abstract Traditional parameterizations of the interaction between convection and the environment have relied on an assumption that the slowly varying large‐scale environment is in statistical equilibrium with a large number of small and short‐lived convective clouds. They fail to capture nonequilibrium transitions such as the diurnal cycle and the formation of mesoscale convective systems as well as observed precipitation statistics and extremes. Informed by analysis of radar observations, cloud‐permitting model simulation, theory, and machine learning, this work presents a new stochastic cloud population dynamics model for characterizing the interactions between convective and stratiform clouds, with the goal of informing the representation of these interactions in global climate models. Fifteen wet seasons of precipitating cloud observations by a C‐band radar at Darwin, Australia are fed into a machine learning algorithm to obtain transition functions that close a set of coupled equations relating large‐scale forcing, mass flux, the convective cell size distribution, and the stratiform area. Under realistic large‐scale forcing, the derived transition functions show that, on the one hand, interactions with stratiform clouds act to dampen the variability in the size and number of convective cells and therefore in the convective mass flux. On the other, for a given convective area fraction, a larger number of smaller cells is more favorable for the growth of stratiform area than a smaller number of larger cells. The combination of these two factors gives rise to solutions with a few convective cells embedded in a large stratiform area, reminiscent of mesoscale convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mixed stochastic-deterministic time-dependent density functional theory: application to stopping power of warm dense carbon

Warm dense matter (WDM) describes an intermediate phase, between condensed matter and classical plasmas, found in natural and man-made systems. In a laboratory setting, WDM is often created dynamically. It is typically laser or pulse-power generated and can be difficult to characterize experimentally. Measuring the energy loss of high energy ions, caused by a WDM target, is both a promising diagnostic and of fundamental importance to inertial confinement fusion research. However, electron coupling, degeneracy, and quantum effects limit the accuracy of easily calculable kinetic models for stopping power, while high temperatures make the traditional tools of condensed matter, e.g. time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT), often intractable. In this study, we have developed a mixed stochastic-deterministic approach to TD-DFT which provides more efficient computation while maintaining the required precision for model discrimination. Recently, this approach showed significant improvement compared to models when compared to experimental energy loss measurements in WDM carbon. Here, we describe this approach and demonstrate its application to warm dense carbon stopping across a range of projectile velocities. We compare direct stopping-power calculation to approaches based on combining homogeneous electron gas response with bound electrons, with parameters extracted from our TD-DFT calculations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Noise-canceling quantum feedback: Non-Hermitian dynamics with applications to state preparation and magic state distillation

Time-continuous quantum measurement allows for the tracking of a quantum system in real time via sequences of short, and individually weak, measurement intervals. Such measurements are necessarily invasive, imparting backaction to the system, and allowing the observer to update their state estimate based on stochastic measurement outcomes. Feedback control then involves real-time interventions by an observer, conditioned on the time-continuous measurement signal that they receive. Here, we consider here diffusive quantum trajectories and focus on the “noise-canceling” subset of feedback protocols that aim to minimize the degree of stochasticity in the dynamics. We derive such a class of feedback operations, showing that under the idealized assumptions of pure states, unit measurement efficiency, and zero time delay in implementing feedback operations, perfectly noise-canceling feedback always exists. We consider the resulting noise-canceled dynamics generated by an effective non-Hermitian Hamiltonian; while non-Hermitian Hamiltonians from continuous monitoring generally describe rare dynamics (accessible by costly postselection), the use of noise-canceling feedback here leads to non-Hermitian dynamics that occur deterministically. We demonstrate this via examples of entangled state preparation and stabilization. We then illustrate the potential for the application of noise cancellation to boost success rates in magic state distillation protocols. We show that adding feedback based on noise cancellation into a time-continuous five-to-one distillation protocol leads to higher probabilities of successful distillation across a range of input errors and increases the threshold on input errors for which the protocol is effective. Our results highlight the efficacy of noise-canceling feedback-aided protocols for quantum state preparation and stabilization tasks.

Karmakar, Tathagata [University of California, Ber↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of diffusion constant on the morphology of dendrite growth in lithium metal batteries

Lithium dendrites can lead to a short circuit and battery failure, and developing strategies for their suppression is of considerable importance. In this work, we study the growth of dendrites in a simple model system where the solvent is a continuum and the lithium ions are hard spheres that can deposit by sticking to existing spheres or the electrode surface. Using stochastic dynamics simulations, we investigate the effect of applied voltage and diffusion constant on the growth of dendrites. We find that the diffusion constant is the most significant factor, and the inhomogeneity of the electric field does not play a significant role. Additionally, the growth is most pronounced when the applied voltage and diffusion constant are both low. We observe a structural change from broccoli to cauliflower shape as the diffusion constant is increased. The simulations suggest that a control of electrolyte parameters that impact lithium diffusion might be an attractive route to controlling dendrite growth.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum dynamics simulations of the 2D spectroscopy for exciton polaritons

We develop an accurate and numerically efficient non-adiabatic path-integral approach to simulate the non-linear spectroscopy of exciton–polariton systems. This approach is based on the partial linearized density matrix approach to model the exciton dynamics with explicit propagation of the phonon bath environment, combined with a stochastic Lindblad dynamics approach to model the cavity loss dynamics. Through simulating both linear and polariton two-dimensional electronic spectra, we systematically investigate how light–matter coupling strength and cavity loss rate influence the optical response signal. Our results confirm the polaron decoupling effect, which is the reduced exciton–phonon coupling among polariton states due to the strong light–matter interactions. We further demonstrate that the polariton coherence time can be significantly prolonged compared to the electronic coherence outside the cavity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamics of phage-host interactions in Bacteroides fragilis resolved by single-cell transcriptomics

The interactions between lytic phages and their hosts are typically studied in bulk culture, which obscures cell-cell differences in infection susceptibility or expression of protective factors. Here, we use bacterial single-cell RNA sequencing to profile the transcriptomes of ~50,000 cells from cultures of a human pathobiont, Bacteroides fragilis, infected with a lytic bacteriophage. From a single sampling, we quantified the asynchronous progression of phage infection in individual bacterial cells and reconstructed the infection timeline, characterizing both host and phage transcriptomic changes as infection unfolded. Further, we discovered phenotypic subpopulations of bacteria that remained uninfected. Each cell’s vulnerability to phage infection was influenced by expression of multiple genetic loci, most prominently phase-variable capsular polysaccharide (CPS) biosynthesis pathways and an operon predicted to encode fimbrial genes. These findings uncovered genome-wide phase variation and stochasticity that enable bacterial survival and re-growth without acquiring additional mutations. Overall, we establish bacterial single-cell RNA sequencing as a powerful platform for investigating the dynamics of host-phage interactions and revealing the roles of phase variation and stochasticity in bacterial defenses.

Bacteria↗
DOE OSTI2023

Safety Benefits Assessment for Accident Tolerant Fuels in Consideration of Steam Generator Tube Degradation Using Dynamic Event Tree Analysis

Accident tolerant fuel (ATF) is expected to delay or prevent core damage by providing additional coping time under accidents involving loss of core cooling. The effect of extended coping time may vary depending on the plant response to accidents. Age-related component degradation that deteriorates plant performance over time could have an impact on the actual advantages of ATF. The potential safety benefits of two near-term ATF candidates, including Cr-coated Zr cladding and FeCrAl cladding, are assessed for a 2-in. loss-of-coolant accident with failed high-pressure safety injection using the dynamic event tree (DET) approach considering possible stress corrosion cracking of steam generator (SG) tubing under aging. The DET approach allows likelihood quantification of accident sequences leading to core damage, including stochastic variation of system response and human actions during accident mitigation. The safety benefits of the selected ATF claddings in terms of additional coping time and the core damage frequency reduction rate under specified accident situations were quantitatively estimated. The results show that the deployment of the two selected ATF claddings is expected to lead to longer coping times and lower core damage frequency due to the wider safety margin to peak cladding temperature they provide. The safety advantages would be greater as SG tube degradation proceeds. Thus, the two ATF candidates would lead to less severe consequences in terms of likelihood of core damage and susceptibility to the SG tube degradation than UO 2 -Zr fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Sparse Gaussian Process for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Large-Scale Power System with Dynamic PVs and Loads

This work proposes a physics-informed sparse Gaussian process (SGP) for probabilistic stability assessment of large-scale power systems in the presence of uncertain dynamic PVs and loads. The differential and algebraic equations considering uncertainties from dynamic PVs and loads are reformulated to a nonlinear mapping relationship that allows the application of SGP. Thanks to the nonparametric characteristic of Gaussian process, the proposed framework does not require distributions of uncertain inputs and this distinguishes it from existing approaches. As the original Gaussian process is not scalable to large-scale systems with high dimensional uncertain inputs, this paper develops the SGP with a stochastic variational inference technique. It leads to approximately two orders of complex reduction. A data pre-processing step is also introduced to tackle the coexistence of stable and unstable cases by sample clustering and constructing separate SGPs. The probabilistic transient stability index is analyzed to assess system stability under different uncertain dynamics loads and PVs. Comparisons are performed with the sampling-based, the polynomial chaos expansion-based, and traditional Gaussian process-based methods on the modified IEEE 118-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems under various scenarios, including different levels of uncertainties and the existence of nonlinear correlations among dynamic PVs. The impacts of data quality and quantity issues are also investigated. It is shown that the proposed SGP achieves significantly improved computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy with a limited number of data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preserving nonlinear constraints in variational flow filtering data assimilation

Data assimilation aims to estimate the states of a dynamical system by optimally combining sparse and noisy observations of the physical system with uncertain forecasts produced by a computational model. The states of many dynamical systems of interest obey nonlinear physical constraints, and the corresponding dynamics is confined to a certain sub-manifold of the state space. Standard data assimilation techniques applied to such systems yield posterior states lying outside the manifold, violating the physical constraints. This work focuses on particle flow filters which use stochastic differential equations to evolve state samples from a prior distribution to samples from an observation-informed posterior distribution. The variational Fokker-Planck (VFP)—a generic particle flow filtering framework—is extended to incorporate non-linear, equality state constraints in the analysis. To this end, two algorithmic approaches that modify the VFP stochastic differential equation are discussed: (i) VFPSTAB, to inexactly preserve constraints with the addition of a stabilizing drift term, and (ii) VFPDAE, to exactly preserve constraints by treating the VFP dynamics as a stochastic differential-algebraic equation (SDAE). Additionally, an implicit-explicit time integrator is developed to evolve the VFPDAE dynamics. The strength of the proposed approach for constraint preservation in data assimilation is demonstrated on three test problems: the double pendulum, Korteweg-de-Vries, and the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimisation of the Kaplan hydropower system via PID 2 and digital twin

Here, this paper proposes a proportional–integral-double–derivative (PID 2 ) optimisation method for the Kaplan hydropower system by building a digital twin. The study first uses one multilayer perceptron (MLP) to model the hydroturbine dynamic and then adopts three connected MLPs to model the generator dynamic, both in an open-loop fashion. Inspired by stochastic distribution control (SDC) theory, we regard the training of the turbine's neural network model as a process control problem, and we propose minimising entropy loss to update the network parameters. The next step is to build the digital twin by connecting the neural network models with a PID 2 controller and a lead-lag exciter and run the whole model in a closed-loop fashion. After that, a binary search approach is applied to optimise the PID 2 parameters based on the obtained digital twin model. The simulation results show that the proposed method can reduce the mean square tracking error by more than 90%. Furthermore, the method is extended to jointly optimise the PID 2 controller and excitation system gains through multiobjective optimisation, leveraging Pareto frontier analysis to balance active power and voltage tracking performance. Simulation results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method, achieving a 83.46% reduction in relative mean square error of active power, a 47.13% reduction in terminal voltage tracking error, and an 82.78% improvement in the overall scalarized objective.

Hydropower system↗
DOE OSTI2023

A low-cost and realistic noisy light system for studying photosynthesis

Unlike the light conditions commonly used to grow photosynthetic organisms in the research laboratory, the light intensity in real environments is dynamic. A simple and low-cost system is described in which a commercial dimmable LED panel is controlled to simulate a sinusoidal function representing daylight hours and overlaid with stochastic shading events. The output closely resembles light intensity measurements on Earth’s surface on partly cloudy days or in lower levels of plant canopies. Here, this tool may be useful to researchers studying photosynthetic acclimation responses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Growth phase estimation for abundant bacterial populations sampled longitudinally from human stool metagenomes

Longitudinal sampling of the stool has yielded important insights into the ecological dynamics of the human gut microbiome. However, human stool samples are available approximately once per day, while commensal population doubling times are likely on the order of minutes-to-hours. Despite this mismatch in timescales, much of the prior work on human gut microbiome time series modeling has assumed that day-to-day fluctuations in taxon abundances are related to population growth or death rates, which is likely not the case. Here, we propose an alternative model of the human gut as a stationary system, where population dynamics occur internally and the bacterial population sizes measured in a bolus of stool represent a steady-state endpoint of these dynamics. We formalize this idea as stochastic logistic growth. We show how this model provides a path toward estimating the growth phases of gut bacterial populations in situ. We validate our model predictions using an in vitro Escherichia coli growth experiment. Finally, we show how this method can be applied to densely-sampled human stool metagenomic time series data. We discuss how these growth phase estimates may be used to better inform metabolic modeling in flow-through ecosystems, like animal guts or industrial bioreactors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sequential Bayesian Parameter Estimation of Stochastic Dynamic Load Models

In this paper we focus on the parameter estimation of dynamic load models with stochastic terms-in particular, load models where protection settings are uncertain, such as in aggregated air conditioning units. We show how the uncertainty in the aggregated protection characteristics can be formulated as a stochastic differential equation with process noise. We cast the parameter inversion within a Bayesian parameter estimation framework, and we present methods to include process noise. We demonstrate the benefits of considering stochasticity in the parameter estimation and the risks of ignoring it.

Bayesian Statistics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large-scale atomistic model construction of subbituminous and bituminous coals for solvent extraction simulations with reactive molecular dynamics

Large-scale atomistic models for complex polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon systems help understand the chemical properties and behaviors of complex feedstocks such as coal or petroleum. However, the development and utilization of large-scale models remain limited due to the difficulty in achieving the varied structural characteristics necessary to capture stochastic nature of these feedstocks. Here we demonstrate a systematic workflow to construct stochastic molecular systems from a broad analytical suite: high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), carbon-13 nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy ( 13 C NMR), laser desorption ionization mass spectroscopy (LDI-MS), and elemental analysis. We present a model construction and analysis utility of a new Python-based module. We selected one subbituminous and three high-volatile bituminous coals to construct large-scale models (~40,000 atoms). The constructed models were utilized to examine the affinity for solvent extraction (naphthalene or tetralin) and the effect of structural properties (e.g., aromatic cluster size, functional groups, and cross-linking) in reactive molecular dynamics simulations. Complex chemical reactions were monitored with bond order transitions, intermediates formation, and mass distributions. Reactive molecular dynamics simulations suggest a plausible chemical extraction process and products for the complex fossil feedstocks. The results indicated that radical formations with bond breaking of bridging oxygens and carbons were required at high temperatures to facilitate hydrogeneration and extraction of gas molecules from radical-free molecules. We observed that aliphatic chains of tetralin were easily decomposed and combined with radicals to form small size of molecules with aryl bonding, mainly increasing molecules in the 500–1000 Da, while naphthalene had little impact on chemical extraction process.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗