Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Surface water”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1975

The role of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the formation of temperature anomalies in surface waters as illustrated by the northern part of the Pacific Ocean

One important reason for thermal anomalies in the ocean is the dynamic action of anomalous wind systems that set masses of surface water in motion; predominant longitudinal transport of water and air leads to a significant redistribution of cold and warm waters. Heat exchange between the ocean and atmosphere plays an additional role in the formation of water temperature anomalies.

Sorkina, A. I.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatial Study 2021: Sensor-Based Time Series of Surface Water Temperature, Specific Conductance, Total Dissolved Solids, pH, and Dissolved Oxygen from across Multiple Watersheds in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA (v3)

This dataset supports a broader study examining the drivers of spatial variability in sediment respiration rates in the Yakima River Basin. The dataset provides two-hour time series hydrological and water chemistry sensor data, manual chamber open channel respiration data, handheld sensor water chemistry data, river substrate grain size photos, general environmental context photos, and field metadata (including qualitative information on instream and river corridor characteristics) collected during the same two-week period at 47 sites within multiple rivers throughout the Yakima River Basin in Washington, USA. Grain size photos can be used to improve estimates of channel substrate D50 data. Related sample-based water chemistry data are published separately at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1898914.This dataset is comprised of four main folders, one containing three sensor-specific subfolders and the others containing photographs. The SFA_SpatialStudy_2021_SensorData main data folder includes file-level metadata (FLMD), data dictionary (dd), installation methods, field metadata, Ultrameter water chemistry data, field data collection protocols, international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file, and a readme file. The “Sensor_Manual_Specifications” subfolder contains pdf files from the manufacturer of each sensor with details on the sensor specifications. Each sensor subfolder (BarotrollAtm, MantaRiver, and MinidotManualChamber) contains a sensor data subfolder for timeseries data and a subfolder for plots and summary statistics. The BarotrollAtm Data subfolder contains In Situ Rugged BaroTROLL pressure and temperature data. The MantaRiver Data subfolder contains Eureka Manta+ 35B multisonde temperature, specific conductance, and pH data. The MinidotManualChamber Data subfolder contains PME MiniDOT Logger dissolved oxygen (mg/L and percent saturation) and temperature data. The folder SFA_SpatialStudy_2021_EnvironmentalContextPhotos contains environmental context photographs and videos. The folders SFA_SpatialStudy_2021_SedimentQuadratPhotos_Part1 and SFA_SpatialStudy_2021_SedimentQuadratPhotos_Part2 contain sediment quadrat photographs. All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .jpg, .jpeg, .mp4, or .mov. This data package was originally published September 2022. It was updated January 2023 (modified files) and June 2024 (new and modified files). See the change history in data package readme for more details.We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Surface Water Fluctuations and Sediment Movement on Hyporheic Zone Biogeochemistry and Microbial Communities

The hyporheic zone (HZ) is the region beneath and adjacent to streams, rivers, and riverine estuaries where the bidirectional exchange of groundwater (GW) and surface water (SW) occurs. The HZ is an integral component of watersheds, a biologically-active zone providing critical control of SW quality and aquatic life. Much prior work has investigated microbially-mediated biogeochemical reactions in the HZ, mainly from a steady-state perspective. Yet key unique aspects of the HZ include 1) proximity to SW fluctuations (e.g., storms, dam operations) which cyclically drive DOC and DO into the bed and banks creating biogeochemical “hot moments,” and 2) continually shifting surface sediment. Both of these controls should substantially influence microbial communities, yet remain poorly understood, and a mechanistic predictive framework does not exist.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

Variation of surface water spectral response as a function of in situ sampling technique

Tests were carried out to determine the spectral variation contributed by a particular sampling technique. A portable radiometer was used to measure the surface water spectral response. Variation due to the reflectance of objects near the radiometer (i.e., the boat side) during data acquisition was studied. Consideration was also given to the variation due to the temporal nature of the phenomena (i.e., wave activity).

Davis, Bruce A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detection of surface water temperature variations of Mongolian lakes benefiting from the spatially and temporally gap-filled MODIS data

Lakes provide critical water resources for human activities and ecosystems, particularly in the Mongolian Plateau (MP), which is characterized by a dry climate and a harsh environment. As a region that is sensitive to anthropogenic warming, tracking lake surface water temperature (LSWT) changes in Mongolian lakes is crucial for understanding the consequences of a warming climate on lake ecosystems. However, the long-term monitoring of LSWT is restricted by the spatiotemporal gaps in the raw imagery of remote sensing-based land surface temperature (LST), e.g., the commonly used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST products. This study applied an improved gap-filling method by utilizing the discrete cosine transform-based penalized least squares (DCT-PLS) strategy in the spatial domain combined with the linear interpolation (LI) algorithm in the temporal domain. The method was applied to fill gaps in the LSWT imagery of 12 representative lakes across MP. The randomly sampled high-quality MODIS LSWT values in the spatial and temporal domains were excavated as false data gaps and considered “virtual true” validation datasets. The spatial validation results showed that the estimated LSWT for all the lake cases were comparable with the “virtual true” LSWT values, with the average values of the coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, mean square error, and root mean square error being 0.98, 0.38 °C, 0.45 °C, and 0.59 °C, respectively. Meanwhile, the error of nighttime LSWT results was relatively lower than that of daytime LSWT. For temporal interpolation validation, the LI algorithm exhibited relatively better performance and could more objectively indicate the variation in LSWT. Benefiting from the spatially and temporally well-constrained data, we analyzed the interannual and intra-annual change characteristics of the LSWTs of the 12 lakes. The long-term variations of annual and seasonal mean LSWTs in the 12 selected lakes exhibited no evident trends in 2000–2020, while presented apparent interannual fluctuations. The slight changes in the average LSWTs of the 12 selected lakes were in excellent synchronization with the surrounding LST derived from the reanalysis datasets, confirming the widely reported phenomenon of “global warming hiatus” that occurred in the early 21st century. This study improves the understanding of the LSWT variations in Mongolian lakes in response to global climate change. It has the potential to provide an effective approach for monitoring LSWT changes in other large-scale studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

WHONDRS-GUI: a web application for global survey of surface water metabolites

Background The Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemistry Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) is a consortium that aims to understand complex hydrologic, biogeochemical, and microbial connections within river corridors experiencing perturbations such as dam operations, floods, and droughts. For one ongoing WHONDRS sampling campaign, surface water metabolite and microbiome samples are collected through a global survey to generate knowledge across diverse river corridors. Metabolomics analysis and a suite of geochemical analyses have been performed for collected samples through the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL). The obtained knowledge and data package inform mechanistic and data-driven models to enhance predictions of outcomes of hydrologic perturbations and watershed function, one of the most critical components in model-data integration. To support efforts of the multi-domain integration and make the ever-growing data package more accessible for researchers across the world, a Shiny/R Graphical User Interface (GUI) called WHONDRS-GUI was created. Results The web application can be run on any modern web browser without any programming or operational system requirements, thus providing an open, well-structured, discoverable dataset for WHONDRS. Together with a context-aware dynamic user interface, the WHONDRS-GUI has functionality for searching, compiling, integrating, visualizing and exporting different data types that can easily be used by the community. The web application and data package are available at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/1484811 , which enables users to simultaneously obtain access to the data and code and to subsequently run the web app locally. The WHONDRS-GUI is also available for online use at Shiny Server ( https://xmlin.shinyapps.io/whondrs/ ).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

Biogeochemistry of DMS in Surface Waters

Dimethylsulfide (DMS) is important in influencing the formation of aerosols in the troposphere over large areas of the world's oceans. Understanding the dynamics of aerosols is important to understanding the earth's radiation balance. In evaluating the factors controlling DMS in the troposphere it is vital to understand the dynamics of DMS in the surface ocean. The biogeochemical processes controlling DMS concentration in seawater are myriad; modeling and theoretical estimation are problematic. At the beginning of this project we believed that we were on the verge of simplifying the ship-track measurement of DMS, and we proposed to deploy such a system to develop a database relating high frequency DMS measurements to biological and physicochemical and optical properties of surface water that can be quantified by remote sensing techniques. We designed a system to measure DMS concomitantly with other basic chemical and biological data in a flow-through system. The project was collaborative between Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) and Bermuda Biological Station for Research (BBSR). The project on which we are reporting was budgeted for only one year with a one year no-cost extension. At WHOI our effort was directed towards designing traps which would be used to concentrate DMS from seawater and allow storage for subsequent analysis. At that time, GC systems were too large for easy long-term deployment on a research vessel like R/V Weatherbird, so we focused on simplifying the shipboard sampling procedure. Initial studies of sample recovery with high levels of DMS suggested that Carboxen 1000, a relatively new carbon molecular sieve, could be used as a stable storage medium. The affinity of Carboxen for DMS is several orders of magnitude higher than gold wool (another adsorbent used for DMS collection) on a weight or volume basis. Furthermore, Carboxen's affinity for DMS is also far less susceptible to humidity than gold wool. Unfortunately, further experiments with low level DMS indicated that recovery of DMS after storage was not quantitative. The material has proven to be completely acceptable for short term storage and has been incorporated into a micro-GC system. Since working on this project, we have collaborated with RVM Scientific in Santa Barbara in the design and construction of small portable micro-GC's that will make feasible at-sea measurement in moving ships, making rapid gas analysis and quantification feasible in a ship-track mode. Throughout this period at both WHOI and BBSR, we continued to analyze field data to understand that patterns of time and space variability in DMS and the processes that govern it. These insights will be crucial to determining the specifications for our automated sampling program. The data from this, the longest continuous sampling program for ocean DMS, provided insights into year to year and short-term variability.

Dacey, J. W. H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of Fe(III) (hydr)oxide mineralogy on the development of microbial communities originating from soil, surface water, groundwater, and aerosols

Microbial Fe(III) reduction is a key component of the iron cycle in natural environments. However, the susceptibility of Fe(III) (hydr)oxides to microbial reduction varies depending on the mineral's crystallinity, and the type of Fe(III) (hydr)oxide in turn will affect the composition of the microbial community. Here, we created microcosm reactors with microbial communities from four different sources (soil, surface water, groundwater, and aerosols), three Fe(III) (hydr)oxides (lepidocrocite, goethite, and hematite) as electron acceptors, and acetate as an electron donor to investigate the shaping effect of Fe(III) mineral type on the development of microbial communities. During a 10-month incubation, changes in microbial community composition, Fe(III) reduction, and acetate utilization were monitored. Overall, there was greater reduction of lepidocrocite than of goethite and hematite, and the development of microbial communities originating from the same source diverged when supplied with different Fe(III) (hydr)oxides. Furthermore, each Fe(III) mineral was associated with unique taxa that emerged from different sources. This study illustrates the taxonomic diversity of Fe(III)-reducing microbes from a broad range of natural environments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of Global Surface Water Temperature Data Sets for use in Passive Remote Sensing of Soil Moisture

Inland open water bodies often pose a systematic error source in the passive remote sensing retrievals of soil moisture. Water temperature is a necessary variable used to compute water emissions that is required to be subtracted from satellite observation to yield actual emissions from the land portion, which in turn generates accurate soil moisture retrievals. Therefore, overestimation of soil moisture can often be corrected using concurrent water temperature data in the overall mitigation procedure. In recent years, several data sets of lake water temperature have become available, but their specifications and accuracy have rarely been investigated in the context of passive soil moisture remote sensing on a global scale. For this reason, three lake temperature products were evaluated against in-situ measurements from 2007 to 2011. The data sets include the lake surface water temperature (LSWT) from Global Observatory of Lake Responses to Environmental Change (GloboLakes), the Copernicus Global Land Operations Cryosphere and Water (C-GLOPS), as well as the lake mix-layer temperature (LMLT) from the European Centers for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA5 Land Reanalysis. GloboLakes, C-GLOPS, and ERA5 Land have overall comparable performance with Pearson correlations (R) of 0.87, 0.92 and 0.88 in comparison with in-situ measurements. LSWT products exhibit negative median biases of −0.27 K (GloboLakes) and −0.31 K (C-GLOPS), whereas the median bias of LMLT is 1.56 K. When mapped from their respective native resolutions to a common 9 km Equal-Area Scalable Earth (EASE) Grid 2.0 projection, similar relative performance was observed. LMLT and LSWT data are closer in performance over the 9 km grid cells that exhibit a small range of lake cover fractions (0.05–0.5). Despite comparable relative performance, ERA5 Land shows great advantages in spatial coverage and temporal resolution. In summary, an integrated evaluation on data accuracy, long-term availability, global coverage, temporal resolution, and regular forward processing with modest data latency led us to conclude that LMLT from the ERA5 Land Reanalysis product represents the most optimal path for use in the development of a long-term soil moisture product.

Runze Zhang↗
DOE OSTI2025

Topography, surface water distribution and subsurface structure in 2023 across an Arctic coastal tundra site near Utqiagvik, Alaska

Subsurface electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), active layer thickness measurements, photogrammetry, and topographic data were collected in September 2023 along a 475 m long, 20 m wide corridor that traverses various polygon types within the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain, approximately 4 miles from the Beaufort Sea near Utqiaġvik, Alaska. These measurements were designed to assess decadal changes in surface water distribution, topography, and subsurface structure across this dynamic landscape. This archive contains the datasets acquired in 2023 and references to the datasets acquired previously at the same location. The ERT survey was conducted along the 475 m transect using 0.5 m electrode spacing and a roll-along acquisition strategy. Thaw layer thicknesses were measured with a tile probe along the same transect. Photogrammetry data were acquired using an unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) and were used to generate a digital elevation model and an RGB mosaic. A real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS was used to survey the ERT electrodes and the ground control points for the aerial imagery. The dataset contains 5 *.csv data files, 6 *.csv metadata files, and 6 *.tif files.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Precipitation chemistry - Atmospheric loadings to the surface waters of the Indian River lagoon basin by rainfall

Rain volume and chemistry monitoring as part of the Kennedy Space Center Long Term Environmental Monitoring Program included the years 1984-1987 as part of the National Atmospheric Deposition Program. Atmospheric deposition in rainfall consisted primarily of sea salt and hydrogen ion, sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium ions. The deposition of nitrogen (a principal plant nutrient) was on the order of 200-300 metric tons per year to the surface waters.

Dreschel, Thomas W.↗
NASA NTRS1997

A Summary of Scatterometer Returns from Water Surfaces Agitated by Rain

In this paper, we summarize our initial findings from K(a)- and K(u)-band scatterometers which include: a scaling law for backscattered power as a function of rain rate; a linear superposition model for light rains and low wind speeds; evidence of the importance of scattering from rain-generated ring-waves; and progress towards development of a scattering model for computing normalized radar cross sections from wind and rain roughened water surfaces.

Bliven, Larry F.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Cloud-Based Operational Surface Water Extent Mapping Service from Sentinel-1 SAR

With its weather independence and day-and-night capabilities, SAR has long been known as a useful data set for flood monitoring. The recently launched Sentinel-1 (S1) C-band sensors, with their regularly acquired, free-and-open data, have finally elevated SAR to a relevant data source in operational hazard response. Leveraging these capabilities of S1, this poster introduces the HYDRO30 product, a 30-m resolution surface water extent product derived from dual-pol S1 SAR data. To enable automatic and near real-time product generation, HYDRO30 is embedded in the HydroSAR service, a cloud-based production pipeline developed by the University of Alaska Fairbanks in collaboration with the NASA Alaska Satellite Facility DAAC and the NASA Marshall and Goddard Space Flight Centers.

Franz J Meyer↗
NASA NTRS2013

KARIN: The Ka-Band Radar Interferometer for the Proposed Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) Mission

Over the last two decades, several nadir profiling radar altimeters have provided our first global look at the ocean basin-scale circulation and the ocean mesoscale at wavelengths longer than 100 km. Due to sampling limitations, nadir altimetry is unable to resolve the small wavelength ocean mesoscale and sub-mesoscale that are responsible for the vertical mixing of ocean heat and gases and the dissipation of kinetic energy from large to small scales. The proposed Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission would be a partnership between NASA, CNES (Centre National d'Etudes Spaciales) and the Canadian Space Agency, and would have as one of its main goals the measurement of ocean topography with kilometer-scale spatial resolution and centimeter scale accuracy. In this paper, we provide an overview of all ocean error sources that would contribute to the SWOT mission.

Ka-Band Radar Interferometer (KaRIn) instrument↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Heterogeneity of Surface Water Temperature Following Stream Restoration and a High-Intensity Fire from Thermal Imagery

Thermal heterogeneity of rivers is essential to support freshwater biodiversity. Salmon behaviorally thermoregulate by moving from patches of warm water to cold water. When implementing river restoration projects, it is essential to monitor changes in temperature and thermal heterogeneity through time to assess the impacts to a river’s thermal regime. Lightweight sensors that record both thermal infrared (TIR) and multispectral data carried via unoccupied aircraft systems (UASs) present an opportunity to monitor temperature variations at high spatial (<0.5 m) and temporal resolution, facilitating the detection of the small patches of varying temperatures salmon require. Here, we present methods to classify and filter visible wetted area, including a novel procedure to measure canopy cover, and extract and correct radiant surface water temperature to evaluate changes in the variability of stream temperature pre- and post-restoration followed by a high-intensity fire in a section of the river corridor of the South Fork McKenzie River, Oregon. We used a simple linear model to correct the TIR data by imaging a water bath where the temperature increased from 9.5 to 33.4 °C. The resulting model reduced the mean absolute error from 1.62 to 0.35 °C. We applied this correction to TIR-measured temperatures of wetted cells classified using NDWI imagery acquired in the field. We found warmer conditions (+2.6 °C) after restoration (p < 0.001) and median absolute deviation for pre-restoration (0.30) to be less than both that of post-restoration (0.85) and post-fire (0.79) orthomosaics. In addition, there was statistically significant evidence to support the hypothesis of shifts in temperature distributions pre- and post-restoration (KS test 2009 vs. 2019, p < 0.001, D = 0.99; KS test 2019 vs. 2021, p < 0.001, D = 0.10). Moreover, we used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that included spatial and environmental predictors (i.e., canopy cover calculated from multispectral NDVI and photogrammetrically derived digital elevation model) to model TIR temperature from a transect along the main river channel. This model explained 89% of the deviance, and the predictor variables showed statistical significance. Collectively, our study underscored the potential of a multispectral/TIR sensor to assess thermal heterogeneity in large and complex river systems.

Barker, Matthew I. (ORCID:0000000252864930)↗
NASA NTRS2012

Surface, Water, and Air Biocharacterization (SWAB) Flight Experiment

The determination of risk from infectious disease during spaceflight missions is composed of several factors including both the concentration and characteristics of the microorganisms to which the crew are exposed. Thus, having a good understanding of the microbial ecology aboard spacecraft provides the necessary information to mitigate health risks to the crew. While preventive measures are taken to minimize the presence of pathogens on spacecraft, medically significant organisms have been isolated from both the Mir and International Space Station (ISS). Historically, the method for isolation and identification of microorganisms from spacecraft environmental samples depended upon their growth on culture media. Unfortunately, only a fraction of the organisms may grow on a specific culture medium, potentially omitting those microorganisms whose nutritional and physical requirements for growth are not met. To address this bias in our understanding of the ISS environment, the Surface, Water, and Air Biocharacterization (SWAB) Flight Experiment was designed to investigate and develop monitoring technology to provide better microbial characterization. For the SWAB flight experiment, we hypothesized that environmental analysis using non-culture-based technologies would reveal microorganisms, allergens, and microbial toxins not previously reported in spacecraft, allowing for a more complete health assessment. Key findings during this experiment included: a) Generally, advanced molecular techniques were able to reveal a few organisms not recovered using culture-based methods; however, there is no indication that current monitoring is "missing" any medically significant bacteria or fungi. b) Molecular techniques have tremendous potential for microbial monitoring, however, sample preparation and data analysis present challenges for spaceflight hardware. c) Analytical results indicate that some molecular techniques, such as denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE), can be much less sensitive than culture-based methods. d) More sensitive molecular techniques, such as quantitative polymerase chain reaction (QPCR), were able to identify viral DNA from ISS environments, suggesting potential transfer of the organism between crewmembers. In addition, the hardware selected for this experiment represented advances for next-generation sample collection. The advanced nature of this collection hardware was noted, when the Sartorius MD8 Air Port air sampler from the SWAB experiment remained on board ISS at the request of JAXA investigators, who intend to use it in completion of their microbial ecology experiment.

Castro, V. A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting lake surface water phosphorus dynamics using process-guided machine learning

Phosphorus (P) loading to lakes is degrading the quality and usability of water globally. Accurate predictions of lake P dynamics are needed to understand whole-ecosystem P budgets, as well as the consequences of changing lake P concentrations for water quality. However, complex biophysical processes within lakes, along with limited observational data, challenge our capacity to reproduce short-term lake dynamics needed for water quality predictions, as well as long-term dynamics needed to understand broad scale controls over lake P. Here we use an emerging paradigm in modeling, process-guided machine learning (PGML), to produce a phosphorus budget for Lake Mendota (Wisconsin, USA) and to accurately predict epilimnetic phosphorus over a time range of days to decades. In our implementation of PGML, which we term a Process-Guided Recurrent Neural Network (PGRNN), we combine a process-based model for lake P with a recurrent neural network, and then constrain the predictions with ecological principles. We test independently the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN to evaluate the overall approach. The process-based model accounted for most of the observed pattern in lake P; however it missed the long-term trend in lake P and had the worst performance in predicting winter and summer P in surface waters. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN was 33.0 μg P L -1 , 22.7 μg P L -1 , and 20.7 μg P L -1 , respectively. All models performed better during summer, with RMSE values for the three models (same order) equal to 14.3 μg P L -1 , 10.9 μg P L -1 , and 10.7 μg P L -1 . Although the PGRNN had only marginally better RMSE during summer, it had lower bias and reproduced long-term decreases in lake P missed by the other two models. For all seasons and all years, the recurrent neural network had better predictions than process alone, with root mean square error (RMSE) of 23.8 μg P L -1 and 28.0 μg P L -1 , respectively. The output of PGRNN indicated that new processes related to water temperature, thermal stratification, and long term changes in external loads are needed to improve the process model. By using ecological knowledge, as well as the information content of complex data, PGML shows promise as a technique for accurate prediction in messy, real-world ecological dynamics, while providing valuable information that can improve our understanding of process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗