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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Thermal Control System of the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS)

The ECOSystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) is a thermal infrared imaging multispectral scanner science mission. ECOSTRESS is designed and built by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory and will be deployed on the International Space Station (ISS). ECOSTRESS will measure the water loss from growing leaves and the evaporation from the soil by measuring the temperature of plants and will gather data on the health of the agriculture system on Earth. The ISS orbit will allow ECOSTRESS to take observations at different times during each day over the seasons to provide coverage over the contiguous United States. The ECOSTRESS Thermal Control System (TCS) consists of a combination of active and passive components to maintain the ECOSTRESS components within the allowable flight temperature (AFT) limits. The active thermal control systems include mechanical cryocoolers, heaters and a single-phase pumped fluid loop for Instrument and Payload. The focal plane detector is cooled to 65K by a pair of mechanical cryocoolers and a third mechanical cryocooler cools an intermediate cold shield to 130K. The pumped fluid loop transfers the instrument waste heat to JAXA’s Japanese Exposed Module External Facility (JEM-EF) provided external fluid loop before rejection to space from the ISS radiators. The passive TCS includes multi-layer and single layer insulations, flexible thermal links and coatings on the radiometer. This paper describes the ECOSTRESS instrument TCS architecture, instrument thermal requirements and key design drivers, the top level thermal design and analysis approach, and reports preliminary test results.

Carroll, Brian↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Error Sources and Mitigation Strategies for Thermocouples Integrated in Flexible Thermal Protection System Materials

• The flexible thermal protection system (FTPS) on NASA’s Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) vehicle will be instrumented with thermocouples (TCs) to measure the in-depth thermal response during entry into Earth’s atmosphere. Accurate flight temperature measurements are critical for verifying vehicle performance and reducing thermal model uncertainties. • The TC leads are routed from the measurement location to the data acquisition system within the same FTPS layer that they are monitoring the temperature. This approach eliminates the need to put holes in the FTPS layers. However, the insulated TC leads are exposed to high temperatures and large thermal gradients. • The baseline TCs were commercially available 30 AWG Type K TCs with a binder impregnated glass braid insulation. The glass braid is rated to a maximum continuous use temperature of 482°C. LOFTID’s heat pulse will be on the order of minutes and the maximum predicted temperature beneath the outermost FTPS layers is 1350°C.

R. A. Miller↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A New ML-Based Adaptive Thinning Methodology to Improve the Impact of AIRS and CrIS Assimilation on Global Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

This work builds on previous research performed by this team to improve the forecast of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) by assimilating AIRS and CrIS radiances into the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS). Past published work demonstrated that the assimilation of radiances with variable density was beneficial to TC forecasting in the GEOS. In the previous setup, a fixed-size moving square named 'TC domain' was activated by the so-called TC-vitals, an international real-time message accessible to all NWP forecasting centers, that documents the existence of a TC, its estimated position, and its size. The information from TC-vitals activated a switch in the GEOS, which allowed to reduce the distance used for thinning AIRS and CrIS data inside a 15 degrees by 15 degrees moving TC domain centered on the storm, so that more data were assimilated in the vicinity of the TC during its lifetime. The methodology produced improved TC analyses and led to better forecasts, particularly related to intensity, without damaging the global forecast skill. In the new version, the adaptive thinning methodology is based on a machine-learning technique. The technique searches for TCs and creates TC masks by using cloud-top temperatures from all geostationary satellites without the need for additional information. It is being trained against the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data base. Once a TC mask is created, a switch identical to the one used in the previous adaptive thinning method is activated, allowing the GEOS to ingest more data in the TC-shaped size-changing domain that follows the storm. As of today, the team has been able to successfully assimilate data inside the ML-detected TC domains. Future work includes an improved capability of reducing false alarm rates (i.e., cloud systems that are erroneously labeled as TCs).

Oreste Reale↗
NASA NTRS2024

Using Satellite Observations of Lightning and Precipitation to Diagnose the Behavior of Deep Convection in Tropical Cyclones Traversing the Midlatitudes

This study uses a unique combination of geostationary and low-Earth orbiting satellite-based lightning and precipitation observations, respectively, to examine the evolution of deep convection during the tropical cyclone (TC) lifecycle. The study spans the 2018-2021 Atlantic Basin hurricane seasons and is unique as it provides the first known analysis of total lightning (intra-cloud and cloud-to-ground) observed in TCs through their extratropical transition and post-tropical cyclone (PTC) phases. We consider the TC lifecycle stage, geographic location (e.g., land, coast, and ocean), shear strength, and quadrant relative to the storm motion and environmental shear vectors. Total lightning maxima are found in the forward right quadrant relative to storm motion and downshear of the TC center, consistent with previous studies using mainly cloud-to-ground lightning. Increasing environmental shear focuses the lightning maxima to the downshear right quadrant with respect to the shear vector in tropical storm phases. Vertical profiles of radar reflectivity from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission show that super electrically active convective precipitation features (>75 flashes) within the PTC phase of TCs have deeper mixed phase depths and higher reflectivity at -10°C than other phases, indicating the presence of more intense convection. Differences in the net convective behavior observed throughout TC evolution manifest in both the TC-scale frequency of lightning-producing cells and the intensity variations amongst individual convective cells. The combination of continuous lightning observations and precipitation snapshots improves our understanding of convective scale processes in TCs, especially in PTC phases, as they traverse the tropics and mid-latitudes.

Lightning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine-Learning-Based Adaptive Thinning of CrIS Radiances to Improve Global Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasts

This work is focused on optimizing the assimilation of hyperspectral infrared (IR) radiances from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) with the goal of improving the representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global analyses and forecasts. Current operational assimilation systems rely on subsampling IR radiances on a regular thinning grid. A new and improved adaptive methodology based on machine learning (ML) recognizes TCs from geostationary satellite imagery and is implemented in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and data assimilation framework. The ML methodology is extensively trained on existing TC data sets and creates for each TC a dynamic mask, based on the evolving shape and life cycle of that specific event. Once a TC mask is created, a switch is then activated in the data assimilation system to alter the thinning, ingesting more CrIS radiances within the moving mask, thus increasing the TC sampling. After the TC dissipates, the assimilation of CrIS radiances reverts to normal data density. Results of TC segmentation provided by a state-of-the-art generative machine learning model known as the Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) are compared to the previously used U-Net model. The new approach surpasses the performance of the previously developed one. The methodology is applied to both clear-sky and cloud-cleared radiances. Benefits from the latter methodology, particularly in improving the structure of TCs and the intensity forecasts, are presented.

Oreste Reale↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radiation Signature Training Device Gamma Equivalent Spheres

Radiation signature training device sources are a continuation of a previous effort to produce a highly enriched uranium equivalent sphere. The original research was designed and motivated to produce a Department of Transportation special form source that emulated the passive gamma signature of a solid metal highly enriched uranium sphere. In addition, the mass reduction (i.e., of the 235 U) minimized logistical costs (security, criticality safety, radiological safety and transportation requirements). Radiation signature training device sources expand on the original concept, redesigning the encapsulation in a modular fashion that allows a variety of loadings. The result is a reconfigurable special nuclear material source set that can vary greatly in the magnitude of the gamma flux and the isotopic distribution. Use of the source to test a variety of standards (N42.34-2015, N42.38-2015, N42.43-2015, N42.53-2018, N42.48-2018, DHS-TCS Backpack Based Radiation Detection Systems, DHS-TCS Handheld Instruments Used for the Detection and Identification of Radionuclides, DHS-TCS Vehicle Mounted Mobile Systems) will be discussed.

Blessinger, Christopher S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of Joule Heating on the Stability of High Temperature Irradiation Resistant Thermocouples

Development of in-core instrumentation is driven by the pursuit of safer and more economic energy production from both existing nuclear reactors and Generation IV reactor designs. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed high temperature irradiation resistant thermocouples (HTIR-TCs) for temperature sensing inside Generation IV nuclear reactors. These thermocouples are composed of phosphorus-doped niobium (Nb-P) and lanthana-doped molybdenum (Mo-LaO) thermoelements, an alumina (Al2O3) insulation, and a niobium sheath. HTIR-TCs require an initial heat treatment exceeding the maximum service temperature to stabilize the generated electromotive force (EMF) signal; however, the mechanism behind this stabilization is not well understood. This work evaluates the impact of Joule heating on the thermoelements' microstructures, chemical stability, and mechanical properties to determine the mechanisms by which the EMF signal stabilization occurs. Accordingly, during the Joule heat treatment, a secondary Nb3P phase coarsened along the length of the Nb-P thermoelement, along with the formation of an interaction region at the Al2O3/niobium interface. The interaction between the alumina insulation and the Nb-P thermoelement was also observed within the Mo-LaO thermoelement. Joule heating induced stability within the generated EMF signal of HTIR-TCs through the formation of secondary phases within the Nb-P and the interaction of the alumina insulation with the thermoelements.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of Joule Heating on the Stability of High Temperature Irradiation-resistant Thermocouples

Development of in-core instrumentation is driven by the pursuit of safer, more economic energy production from the perspective of both existing nuclear reactors and Generation IV reactor designs. Idaho National Laboratory has developed high-temperature irradiation-resistant thermocouples (HTIR-TCs) for temperature sensing inside Generation IV nuclear reactors. These thermocouples are composed of phosphorus-doped niobium (Nb-P) and lanthana-doped molybdenum (Mo-LaO) thermoelements, an alumina (Al2O3) insulation, and a niobium sheath. HTIR-TCs require an initial heat treatment exceeding the maximum service temperature to stabilize the generated electromotive force (EMF) signal. The mechanism behind the stabilization of the HTIR-TCs through traditional heat treatment methods is understood; however, the traditional heat treatment method is expensive, time consuming, and results in a heterogeneous microstructure. Therefore, we investigated a rapid method for stabilization and microstructure homogeneity, through Joule heating. This work evaluates the impact of Joule heating on the thermoelements’ microstructures, chemical stability, and mechanical properties so as to determine the mechanisms by which stabilization of the EMF signal occurs. Accordingly, during the Joule heat treatment, a secondary Nb3P phase coarsened along the length of the Nb-P thermoelement, along with the formation of an interaction region at the Al2O3/niobium interface. The interaction between the alumina insulation and the Nb-P thermoelement was also observed within the Mo-LaO thermoelement. Joule heating induced stability within the generated HTIR-TC EMF signal via the formation of secondary phases within the Nb-P and the interaction between the alumina insulation and the thermoelements.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations

The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over five TC basins lying within four Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains are examined for present and future climate conditions using a new ensemble of simulations completed as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative with the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations are conducted at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing and are driven by three CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The RegCM4 captures most features of the observed TC climatology, except for the TC intensity, which is thus statistically adjusted using a bias correction procedure to account for the effect of the coarse model resolution. The RegCM4 exhibits an improved simulation of several TC statistics compared to the driving GCMs, over most basins analyzed. In future climate conditions we find significant increases in TC frequency over the North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific and Eastern Pacific regions, which are consistent with an increase in mid-tropospheric relative humidity. The North Atlantic and Australasia regions show a decrease in TC frequency, mostly associated with an increase in wind shear. We also find a consistent increase in future storm rainfall rates associated with TCs and in the frequency of the most intense TCs over most domains. Finally, our study shows robust responses often, but not always, in line with previous studies, still implying the presence of significant uncertainties in the projection of TC characteristics, which need to be addressed using large ensembles of simulations with high-resolution models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The atmospheric effect of aerosols on future tropical cyclone frequency and precipitation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model

This study uses experiments from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to compare the influence on tropical cyclone (TC) activity of: (i) the atmospheric effect of aerosols under specified sea-surface temperatures (SSTs); and (ii) the net effect of greenhouse gases (GhGs) (including changes in SSTs). The experiments were performed using the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario with GhG-induced SST warming specified and atmospheric aerosol effects simulated but without explicit ocean coupling. Insignificant changes in global TC frequency are found in response to the atmospheric effect of future aerosols and GhGs, as significant regional responses in TC frequency counteract each other. Future GhGs contribute to more frequent TCs in the North Atlantic, and reductions over the Northwestern Pacific and Southern Indian Ocean. The atmospheric effect of future aerosols drives more frequent TCs over the Northwestern Pacific and reductions over the Northeast Pacific and North Atlantic. Along with increases in TC intensity, global TC precipitation (TCP) is projected to increase by 52.8% (14.1%/K) due to the combined effect of future aerosols and GhGs. Although both forcings contribute to TCP increases (14.7–19.3% from reduced aerosols alone and 28.1–33.3% from increased GhGs alone), they lead to different responses in the spatial structure of TCP. TCP increases preferentially in the inner-core due to increased GhGs, whereas TCP decreases in the inner-core and increases in the outer-bands in response to the atmospheric effects of decreased aerosols. These changes are distinct from those caused by aerosol-induced SST changes, which have been considered in other studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the genesis and intensification of simultaneous cyclones in the Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal in November 2020

The North Indian Ocean (NIO), which includes the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Arabian Sea (AS), is frequently impacted by tropical cyclones (TCs). Notably, in November 2020, the simultaneous occurrence of Cyclones Gati in the AS and Nivar in the BoB presented a rare and compelling phenomenon worthy of investigation. This study delves into the underlying mechanisms driving the genesis and intensification of these two Very Severe Cyclonic Storms (VSCS). Key contributing factors include elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP), both crucial for the development and intensification of TCs. Notably, the BoB exhibits higher TCHP values compared to the AS, which facilitated greater intensity for Nivar over Gati. Despite their concurrent formation, the genesis processes of Gati and Nivar were distinct. The early November development of Gati in the AS was modulated by the Rossby wave and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Subsequently, the eastward propagation of the MJO triggered the formation of Cyclone Nivar in the BoB, enhancing convective activity from the AS and coinciding with the arrival of a downward-propagating Rossby wave. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the simultaneous formation of Gati and Nivar, contributing novel insights into the complex interactions between oceanic and atmospheric phenomena. In conclusion, such insights are vital for enhancing the predictive capabilities for destructive weather events in the NIO.

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the relationship between eastern China aerosols and western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity

How aerosols affect the weather and climate system has received increasing attention. This study finds a significant negative correlation between March–May eastern China aerosol optical depth (AOD) and July–November western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) frequency during 2003–2020. This time period spans when several aerosol reanalyses are available and both Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer AOD retrievals are assimilated therein. Composite analyses and budget analyses of dynamical genesis potential indices indicate the importance of large-scale environmental factors, especially vertical velocity and vertical wind shear, associated with changes in AOD that in turn modulate changes in WNP TC frequency. Increased eastern China AOD may facilitate negative Pacific meridional mode development via modulation of the westerly jet, which then forces an anticyclonic circulation over the WNP basin. Increased AOD can also directly decrease the inter-hemispheric temperature differential and increases the intra-hemispheric temperature differential between the equator and the mid-latitudes, thus weakening ascending motion and enhancing vertical wind shear over the WNP, especially the southeastern portion of the basin. Further, all of these large-scale environment changes induced by increased eastern China AOD tend to suppress WNP TCs. This study highlights the potential influence of eastern China aerosol loadings on WNP TCs, thus improving our understanding of TC climate variability over the WNP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

C10-Benzoate Esters of Anhydrotetracycline Inhibit Tetracycline Destructases and Recover Tetracycline Antibacterial Activity

Tetracyclines (TCs) are an important class of antibiotics threatened by enzymatic inactivation. These tetracycline-inactivating enzymes, also known as tetracycline destructases (TDases), are a subfamily of class A flavin monooxygenases (FMOs) that catalyze hydroxyl group transfer and oxygen insertion (Baeyer–Villiger type) reactions on TC substrate scaffolds. Semisynthetic modification of TCs (e.g., tigecycline, omadacycline, eravacycline, and sarecycline) has proven effective in evading certain resistance mechanisms, such as ribosomal protection and efflux, but does not protect against TDase-mediated resistance. Here, we report the design, synthesis, and evaluation of a new series of 22 semisynthetic TDase inhibitors that explore D-ring substitution of anhydrotetracycline (aTC) including 14 C10-benzoate ester and eight C9-benzamides. Overall, the C10-benzoate esters displayed enhanced bioactivity and water solubility compared to the corresponding C9-benzamides featuring the same heterocyclic aryl side chains. The C10-benzoate ester derivatives of aTC were prepared in a high-yield one-step synthesis without the need for protecting groups. The C10-esters are water-soluble, stable toward hydrolysis, and display dose-dependent rescue of tetracycline antibiotic activity in E. coli expressing two types of tetracycline destructases, represented by TetX7 (Type 1) and Tet50 (Type 2). The best inhibitors recovered tetracycline antibiotic activity at concentrations as low as 2 μM, producing synergistic scores <0.5 in the fractional inhibitory concentration index (FICI) against TDase-expressing strains of E. coli and clinical P. aeruginosa. The C10-benzoate ester derivatives of aTC reported here are promising new leads for the development of tetracycline drug combination therapies to overcome TDase-mediated antibiotic resistance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Abstract The frequency with which tropical cyclones (TCs) occur controls all other aspects of tropical cyclone risk since a storm that does not occur can do no harm. Yet this frequency is poorly understood. There is no accepted theory that explains the average number of TCs that occur each year on the Earth, nor how that number will change with global warming. Arguments based on global budgets of heat or moisture do not yet appear helpful, nor does a detailed understanding of the physical processes of TC genesis. Empirical indices that predict TC frequency as a function of large‐scale environmental variables can explain some of its relative variations in space and time, but not its absolute value. Global numerical models with horizontal grid spacings on the order of 25–50 km have allowed much improved simulations of TC activity, however. Many such models project a decrease in frequency with warming, but some project an increase. Idealized simulations, including those at higher resolutions, offer promise by allowing a systematic, deductive investigation of the roles of individual environmental factors. In addition to the larger‐scale environmental modulation of genesis likelihood, precursor disturbances, or “seeds”, may exert an independent influence on TC frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ensemble‐Based Assimilation of Satellite All‐Sky Microwave Radiances Improves Intensity and Rainfall Predictions for Hurricane Harvey (2017)

Abstract Ensemble‐based data assimilation of radar observations across inner‐core regions of tropical cyclones (TCs) in tandem with satellite all‐sky infrared (IR) radiances across the TC domain improves TC track and intensity forecasts. This study further investigates potential enhancements in TC track, intensity, and rainfall forecasts via assimilation of all‐sky microwave (MW) radiances using Hurricane Harvey (2017) as an example. Assimilating Global Precipitation Measurement constellation all‐sky MW radiances in addition to GOES‐16 all‐sky IR radiances reduces the forecast errors in the TC track, rapid intensification (RI), and peak intensity compared to assimilating all‐sky IR radiances alone, including a 24‐hr increase in forecast lead‐time for RI. Assimilating all‐sky MW radiances also improves Harvey's hydrometeor fields, which leads to improved forecasts of rainfall after Harvey's landfall. This study indicates that avenues exist for producing more accurate forecasts for TCs using available yet underutilized data, leading to better warnings of and preparedness for TC‐associated hazards in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Summer mean and extreme precipitation over the Mid-Atlantic region: climatological characteristics and contributions from different precipitation types

Based on a long-term observational dataset from the tracking of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), isolated deep convection (IDC), and tropical cyclones (TCs), we examine the climatological characteristics of summer mean and extreme precipitation during 2004 – 2017 and their respective contributions from MCS, IDC, TC, and non-convective (NC) systems and the local vs. remote influence of MCS and IDC over the MAR. On average, MCS, IDC, TC, and NC contribute 22%, 29%, 4%, and 45% to the total summer mean precipitation in the region. While MCS and TC precipitation primarily occurs in the coastal areas east of the Appalachian Mountains, IDC precipitation is more concentrated in the southern MAR and near the mountain windward slopes. Each summer, ~41 MCSs with an average lifetime of 19.6 hours influence the MAR, with 80% initiated outside and traveling on average 10 hours to the region. Around 13 MCSs initiated in the Great Plains and Midwest propagate across the Appalachian Mountains and contribute 20-40% to summer MCS precipitation in the central Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. In contrast, more than 2000 IDCs with an average lifetime of 2.0 hours influence the MAR each summer, and 77% are initiated locally. MCS, IDC, TC, and NC contribute 31% (30%), 26% (31%), 18% (7%), and 26% (32%) to the top 1% (5%) extreme daily precipitation, respectively. Considering extreme hourly precipitation, however, the IDC contributions increase to 41% (top 1%) and 38% (top 5%) due to the shorter duration of IDC events than the other precipitation types.

Li, Jianfeng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Simulation of CONUS Precipitation by Storm Type in E3SM

Abstract Conventional low‐resolution (LR) climate models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1), have well‐known biases in simulating the frequency, intensity, and timing of precipitation. Approaches to next‐generation E3SM, whether the high‐resolution (HR) or multiscale modeling framework (MMF) configuration, improve the simulation of the intensity and frequency of precipitation, but regional and seasonal deficiencies still exist. Here we apply a methodology to assess the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) to simulated precipitation in E3SMv1‐HR and E3SMv1‐MMF relative to E3SMv1‐LR. Across the United States, E3SMv1‐MMF provides the best simulation in terms of precipitation accumulation, frequency and intensity from MCSs and TCs compared to E3SMv1‐LR and E3SMv1‐HR. All E3SMv1 configurations overestimate precipitation amounts from and the frequency of ETCs over CONUS, with conventional E3SMv1‐LR providing the best simulation compared to observations despite limitations in precipitation intensity within these events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, few studies explored nearshore storm intensification and its response to climate change at the global scale. Here, we address this using a suite of observations and numerical model simulations. Over the historical period 1979–2020, observations reveal a global mean TC intensification rate increase of about 3 kt per 24‐hr in regions close to the coast. Analysis of the observed large‐scale environment shows that stronger decreases in vertical wind shear and larger increases in relative humidity relative to the open oceans are responsible. Further, high‐resolution climate model simulations suggest that nearshore TC intensification will continue to rise under global warming. Idealized numerical experiments with an intermediate complexity model reveal that decreasing shear near coastlines, driven by amplified warming in the upper troposphere and changes in heating patterns, is the major pathway for these projected increases in nearshore TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗