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Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation
Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.
Protonation Dynamics of Confined Ethanol–Water Mixtures in H-ZSM-5 from Machine Learning-Driven Metadynamics
Zeolites are indispensable heterogeneous catalysts in industrial chemical processes, valued for their strong Brønsted acidity, well-defined microporous frameworks, and tunable pore structures. Their catalytic activity arises primarily from Brønsted acid sites (BAS), typically present as bridging hydroxyl groups (Si–OH–Al). Under aqueous reaction conditions, these protons interact dynamically with water and alcohol molecules, leading to complex solvation and protonation behavior within confined pores. In this study, we investigate the protonation equilibrium occurring between ethanol and water at the BAS of acidic zeolites under varying hydration levels, i.e., C2H5OH–(H2O)n, n=1–4. Local structure was analyzed through an adaptive-learning global optimization algorithm, while enhanced sampling molecular dynamics simulations with Well-Tempered Metadynamics (WMetaD) and machine learning interatomic potentials (MLPs) provide free-energy surfaces (FES) at variable hydration levels. The results reveal a strong dependence of proton localization on the degree of hydration. At low hydration (1 water molecule), the proton resides predominantly on ethanol; with 2 water molecules, it shifts toward water, and at higher hydration (3 or more water molecules), it becomes extensively delocalized over the water cluster. These findings underscore the critical role of solvation in modulating acid site behavior and suggest that a minimum of three water molecules is necessary to fully stabilize the proton on water within the zeolite framework. This solvation threshold has significant implications for catalytic processes, particularly in biomass conversion reactions where alcohol protonation is a key step in dehydration mechanisms.
Temperature-induced densification in compressed basaltic glass revealed by in-situ ultrasonic measurements
Abstract Acoustic velocities of a model basalt glass (64 mol% CaMgSi2O6 + 36 mol% CaAl2Si2O8) were measured along different pressure-temperature (P-T) paths. One set of experiments involved isothermal compression-decompression cycles, performed at temperatures of 300, 641, 823, and 1006 K and pressures up to 12.2 GPa. The other set of experiments involved constant-load heating-cooling cycles at temperatures up to 823 K and pressures up to 7.5 GPa. Both sets of experiments were performed in a multi-anvil apparatus using a synchrotron-based ultrasonic technique. Our results show that the glass compressed isothermally at 300 K (cold-compression) displays anomalously decreasing compressional (VP) and shear (VS) wave velocities with increasing pressure until ~8 GPa. Beyond 8 GPa, both VP and VS start to increase sharply with pressure and irreversible densification of the glass occurred, producing large hysteresis loops of velocities upon decompression. However, for the glass compressed isothermally at increasingly higher temperatures (hot-compression), the velocity minima gradually shift to lower pressures. At temperature close to the glass transition temperature Tg, the velocity minima disappear completely, displaying a monotonic increase of velocities during compression and higher VP and VS during decompression. In addition, constant-load heating-cooling experiments show that velocities generally decrease slightly with increasing temperature, but start to increase once heated above a threshold temperature (~650 K). During cooling the velocities increase almost linearly with decreasing temperature, resulting in higher velocities (~1.5–2.5% higher) when returned to 300 K. This implies that a temperature-induced densification may have occurred in the glass at high pressures. Raman spectra on recovered samples show that the hot-compressed and high-P heated glasses contain distinctly densified and depolymerized structural signatures compared to the initial glass and the cold-compressed glass below the velocity transition pressure PT (~8 GPa). Such densification may be attributed to the breaking of bridging oxygen bonds and compaction in the intermediate-range structure. Our results demonstrate that temperature can facilitate glass densification at high pressures and point out the importance of P-T history in understanding the elastic properties of silicate glasses. Comparison with melt velocity suggests that hot-compressed glasses may better resemble the pressure dependence of velocity of silicate melts than cold-compressed glasses, but still show significantly higher velocities than melts. If the abnormal acoustic behaviors of cold-compressed glasses were used to constrain melt fractions in the mantle low-velocity regions, the melt fractions needed to explain a given velocity reduction would be significantly underestimated at high pressures.
Amplified Spontaneous Emission from Electron–Hole Quantum Droplets in Colloidal CdSe Nanoplatelets
Two-dimensional cadmium selenide nanoplatelets (NPLs) exhibit large absorption cross sections and homogeneously broadened band-edge transitions that offer utility in wide-ranging optoelectronic applications. Here, we examine the temperature-dependence of amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) in 4- and 5-monolayer thick NPLs and show that the threshold for close-packed (neat) films decreases with decreasing temperature by a factor of 2-10 relative to ambient temperature owing to extrinsic (trapping) and intrinsic (phonon-derived line width) factors. Interestingly, for pump intensities that exceed the ASE threshold, we find development of intense emission to lower energy in particular provided that the film temperature is <= 200 K. For NPLs diluted in an inert polymer, both biexcitonic ASE and low-energy emission are suppressed, suggesting that described neat-film observables rely upon high chromophore density and rapid, collective processes. Transient emission spectra reveal ultrafast red-shifting with the time of the lower energy emission. Taken together, these findings indicate a previously unreported process of amplified stimulated emission from polyexciton states that is consistent with quantum droplets and constitutes a form of exciton condensate. For studied samples, quantum droplets form provided that roughly 17 meV or less of thermal energy is available, which we hypothesize relates to polyexciton binding energy. Polyexciton ASE can produce pump-fluence-tunable red-shifted ASE even 120 meV lower in energy than biexciton ASE. Finally, our findings convey the importance of biexciton and polyexciton populations in nanoplatelets and show that quantum droplets can exhibit light amplification at significantly lower photon energies than biexcitonic ASE.
Broadband‐Tunable Third‐Harmonic Generation Using Phase‐Change Chalcogenides
Despite remarkable progress in passive nonlinear nanophotonics, dynamically controlled ultracompact nonlinear optical sources with high efficiency remain elusive. Nonvolatility, large refractive index contrast between amorphous and crystalline phases, low thermal threshold for crystallization, and particularly high‐third‐order nonlinear optical susceptibility of phase‐change alloy Ge 2 Sb 2 Te 5 (GST) make it a promising candidate for active subwavelength metaphotonic structures for realization of third‐harmonic generation (THG) devices. Herein, a GST‐based asymmetric Fabry–Perot cavity is numerically designed and experimentally demonstrated to show a dynamically reconfigurable structure with a large shift of the THG resonant band. In addition, continuous resonant spectral shifting bridged by a precisely controlled semicrystalline phase of GST is realized. Tunable THG with the fundamental wavelength ranging from 1150 to 1400 nm is presented, which corresponds to a broadband THG source in the violet‐blue visible wavelength range. Herein, the potential of GST subwavelength structures as a reliable platform for realization of the broadband‐tunable frequency‐conversion sources for applications such as THG microscopy and optical communication is indicated.
Alfvénic modes excited by the kink instability in PHASMA
Magnetic flux ropes have been successfully created with plasma guns in the newly commissioned PHAse Space MApping (PHASMA) experiment. The flux ropes exhibit the expected m = 1 kink instability. The observed threshold current for the onset of this kink instability is half of the Kruskal–Shafranov current limit, consistent with predictions for the non-line tied boundary condition of PHASMA. The helicity, paramagnetism, and growth rate of the observed magnetic fluctuations are also consistent with kink instability predictions. The observed fluctuation frequency appears to be a superposition of a real frequency due to a Doppler shift of the kink mode arising from plasma flow (~2kHz) and a contribution from a wave mode (~5 kHz). The dispersion of the wave mode is consistent with an Alfvén wave. Distinct from most previ-ous laboratory studies of flux ropes, the working gas in PHASMA is argon. Thus, the ion cyclotron frequency in PHASMA is quite low and the frequency of the Alfvénic mode plateaus at ~0.5 of the ion gyro frequency with increasing background magnetic field strength.
Study of ponderomotive instability in the FRIB beta=0.53 half-wave resonator
Superconducting radio-frequency niobium cavities are susceptible to deformations caused by external or internal forces, leading to shifts in the cavity resonant frequency. One source of deformation comes from the radiation pressure of the cavity fields, producing the so-called Lorentz force detuning effect. This effect can couple to the cavity mechanical modes in generator driven mode, leading to ponderomotive instability. In the FRIB 322 MHz, β=0.53 Half-wave Resonators (HWR), the instability appeared when the cavity was detuned, with thresholds depending on low-level RF control parameters, such as closed loop gain, as well as accelerating gradient. Using a measured Lorentz Transfer Function, Simulink simulations were conducted to predict the instability thresholds, which were then compared with the experimental results. We will discuss how these thresholds can be broadened to enable stable operation at higher gradients.
Error field predictability and consequences for ITER
Abstract ITER coil tolerances are re-evaluated using the modern understanding of coupling to least-stable plasma modes and an updated center-line-traced model of ITER’s coil windings. This reassessment finds the tolerances to be conservative through a statistical, linear study of n = 1 error fields (EFs) due to tilted, shifted misplacements and nominal windings of central solenoid and poloidal field coils within tolerance. We also show that a model-based correction scheme remains effective even when metrology quality is sub-optimal, and compare this to projected empirical correction schemes. We begin with an analysis of the necessity of error field correction (EFC) for daily operation in ITER using scalign laws for the EF penetration threshold. We then consider the predictability of EF dominant mode overlap across early planned ITER scenarios and, as measuring EFs in high power scenarios can pose risks to the device, the potential for extrapolation to the ITER Baseline Scenario (IBS). We find that carefully designing a scenario matching currents proportionally to those of the IBS is far more important than plasma shape or profiles in accurately measuring an optimal correction current set.
Emulating climate extreme indices
We use simple pattern scaling and time-shift to emulate changes in a set of climate extreme indices under future scenarios, and evaluate the emulators' accuracy. We propose a metric for the error in emulation in the context of initial condition ensembles, to specifically characterize the role of internal variability in the emulation performance. Our metric separates systematic emulation errors from unavoidable discrepancies between emulated and target values due to internal variability. We compute the metricis at grid-point scale, and we show geographically resolved results, or aggregate them at global scale. We demonstrate the use of our error metric in the emulation of a suite of temperature and precipitation extreme indices. We test and compare simple pattern scaling and time-shift using a range of trajectories spanning targets inspired by the Paris agreement -- warming to 1.5C and 2.0C from the pre-industrial baseline -- and two of the longer-established trajectories, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. With this suite of scenarios we can test the effects on the performance of the size of the temperature gap between emulation origin and target. We find that for most indices emulation the dominant source of discrepancy is internal variability. For at least one index, however, counting exceedances of a high temperature threshold, significant portions of the globally aggregated discrepancy and its regional pattern originate from the systematic emulation error. This error exceeds internal variability of both the target and the emulated quantities in large coherent regions at low latitudes, and the explanation can be found in the differential behavior of temperature distributions across latitudes. The metric also highlights a fundamental difference in the two methods related to the simulation of internal variability, which is dampened significantly by simple pattern scaling. This aspect is of consequence when using these methods for specific applications, where preserving variability for uncertainty quantification is deemed important. With this study we offer our metric as a diagnostic tool, facilitating the formulation of scientific hypotheses on the reasons for the error. In the meantime, we show that for many impact relevant indices by now traditional emulation techniques can be accurate within the variations unavoidably introduced by internal variability, establishing the fundamental condition for using their emulation in impact modeling.
Investigation on gate oxide reliability under gate bias screening for commercial SiC planar and trench MOSFETs
This paper evaluates the impact of the fast high gate-voltage screening technique on gate oxide reliability of commercial 1.2 kV 4H-SiC power metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFETs) with planar and trench gate structures. The measurements are conducted on packaged devices with the intent that the results will be applicable to wafer-level screening. The threshold voltage (V th ) of SiC MOSFETs is measured before and after various screening treatments and recovery process. In addition, constant-voltage time-dependent dielectric breakdown (TDDB) measurements are performed on SiC MOSFETs to obtain the intrinsic lifetime of gate oxide. The objective of this study is to determine the optimal screening conditions and improve screening efficiency without degradation of gate oxide reliability, such as V th shift and reduced oxide intrinsic lifetime. Due to the differences in the gate oxidation process and structural design of SiC planar and trench MOSFETs, the two types of devices exhibit different oxide reliability in the screening process. The recommended screening conditions obtained in this paper reveal that SiC trench MOSFETs can accept higher screening voltages compared to SiC planar MOSFETs. Hence, it can be concluded that more efficient screening techniques can be adopted for SiC MOSFETs with thicker gate oxide to meet the requirements of industrial applications.
Spontaneous Exciton Collapse in a Strongly Flattened Ellipsoidal InSb Quantum Dot
Abstract Electronic and excitonic states in an InSb strongly flattened ellipsoidal quantum dot (QD) with complicated dispersion law are theoretically investigated within the framework of the geometric adiabatic approximation in the strong, intermediate, and weak quantum confinement regimes. For the lower levels of the spectrum, the square root dependence of energy on QD sizes is revealed in the case of Kane’s dispersion law. The obtained results are compared to the case of a parabolic (standard) dispersion law of charge carriers. The possibility of the accidental exciton instability is revealed for the intermediate quantum confinement regime. For the weak quantum confinement regime, the motion of the exciton's center-of-gravity is quantized, which leads to the appearance of additional Coulomb-like sub-levels. It is revealed that in the case of the Kane dispersion law, the Coulomb levels shift into the depth of the forbidden band gap, moving away from the quantum confined level, whereas in the case of the parabolic dispersion law, the opposite picture is observed. The corresponding selection rules of quantum transitions for the interband absorption of light are obtained. New selection rules of quantum transitions between levels conditioned by 2D exciton center of mass vertical motion quantization in a QD are revealed. The absorption threshold behavior characteristics depending on the QDs geometrical sizes are also revealed.
Direct measurements of the 3D plasma velocity in single-helical-axis RFP plasmas
The first local velocity measurements of helical equilibrium plasmas in the Reversed Field Pinch (RFP) Single Helical Axis (SHAx) state using a Charge Exchange Recombination Spectroscopy (CHERS) diagnostic are presented. Measurements show strong axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric flow, with n ¼ 5 components of flow related to the ðm; nÞ¼ð1; 5Þ dominant magnetic mode on the order of the axisymmetric flow in certain regions of the plasma, as well as significant n > 5 flow. Flow measurements are compared with NIMROD simulations of visco-resistive, single-fluid MHD in toroidal and cylindrical geometries with limited axial periodicity. Both measurements and the simulation with toroidal geometry show stronger inboard flows relative to the outboard flows, which is attributed to the toroidal geometry of the device. In the experiment, the n ¼ 5 component of flow is phase shifted from the reconnection-like flow pattern observed in the single-fluid simulations, possibly due to decoupling of the ion and electron fluids over much of the plasma. Finally, the strength of the helical angular flow shear relative to the critical shear necessary to disrupt nonlinear coupling between tearing modes is calculated around the helical magnetic axis. The shear in the measured flow is on the order of the theoretical critical threshold needed to nonlinearly decouple modes, but the measurement uncertainty in the gradient of the flow is large.
Signal processing to reduce dark noise impact in precision timing
We introduce a technique to mitigate the effects of low frequency noise on precision timing. The example of Dark Count Noise Rate (DCR) in Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPMs) is emphasized. This technique exploits the correlation between time shifts on the leading edge of a signal and the residual slope of the baseline (due to noise) which remains after baseline subtraction. In fast timing applications (such as for Time-of-flight particle ID) the signal arrival time is typically captured on the signal leading edge. The signal risetime is often fixed by the physics of the sensor and input circuit. Then accurate pulse timing can be achieved by correcting a leading edge threshold time (depending on a slope proportional to both the Amplitude and the risetime) to a “constant fraction” time. This compensation for time walk due to amplitude fluctuations breaks down once we introduce interference from low frequency noise on the leading edge. In this paper we demonstrate that an additional measurement of the slope at threshold can be used to correct for this noise jitter.
Using taxa-based approaches to delineate stream macroinvertebrate assemblage responses to stressor gradients in modified alluvial agroecosystems
Alluvial plain landscapes are some of the most agriculturally productive lands in the world but often have modified stream ecosystems due to cultivation history. This context requires consideration when establishing water quality management goals. We analyzed state water quality databases to demonstrate that Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) ecoregion streams have elevated specific conductivity (SC) and nutrients and lower macroinvertebrate local and regional taxa pools compared to streams in other ecoregions, potentially reducing the efficacy of traditional biomonitoring approaches within the region. To overcome these challenges, we used threshold indicator taxa analysis (TITAN) to compare macroinvertebrate assemblage responses to water quality gradients among ecoregions in Mississippi. We identified individual taxa and assemblage-level responses to increasing water quality degradation in MAP streams. Observed responses occurred at higher concentrations for SC, total organic carbon (TOC) and total phosphorus (TP), but not total nitrogen (TN) relative to other ecoregions. These responses appeared to be driven by a large proportion of indicator taxa considered tolerant or unresponsive in other ecoregions, responding negatively to increasing water quality stressors in MAP streams. Our observed assemblage-level stressor responses to WQ gradients in MAP streams demonstrate shifting tolerance in highly altered ecosystems may require adjustments to recovery expectations but also provide useful measures for monitoring improvements in regional water quality. For example, our observed macroinvertebrate assemblage response to increasing TP identified a management goal similar to guidance based on distributional analysis of water quality data within the MAP ecoregion (0.11 vs 0.128 mg L –1 ) and thus provide some biological basis for previously identified nutrient goals for the region. Our approach can guide and monitor success of nutrient reduction efforts in MAP watersheds and other alluvial plain agroecosystems where reference conditions do not exist, and local and regional taxa pools are less diverse and may not support full recovery of ecological assemblages. While our results are promising, they should also be compared with more sensitive and less habitat-limited biological assemblages (e.g., algae or bacteria) to better understand complex ecological responses to best management practices designed to increase sustainability of high production agricultural regions.
Enhancing synchrotron radiation micro-CT images using deep learning: an application of Noise2Inverse on bone imaging
In bone-imaging research, in situ synchrotron radiation micro-computed tomography (SRµCT) mechanical tests are used to investigate the mechanical properties of bone in relation to its microstructure. Low-dose computed tomography (CT) is used to preserve bone's mechanical properties from radiation damage, though it increases noise. To reduce this noise, the self-supervised deep learning method Noise2Inverse was used on low-dose SRµCT images where segmentation using traditional thresholding techniques was not possible. Simulated-dose datasets were created by sampling projection data at full, one-half, one-third, one-fourth and one-sixth frequencies of an in situ SRµCT mechanical test. After convolutional neural networks were trained, Noise2Inverse performance on all dose simulations was assessed visually and by analyzing bone microstructural features. Visually, high image quality was recovered for each simulated dose. Lacunae volume, lacunae aspect ratio and mineralization distributions shifted slightly in full, one-half and one-third dose network results, but were distorted in one-fourth and one-sixth dose network results. Following this, new models were trained using a larger dataset to determine differences between full dose and one-third dose simulations. Significant changes were found for all parameters of bone microstructure, indicating that a separate validation scan may be necessary to apply this technique for microstructure quantification. Noise present during data acquisition from the testing setup was determined to be the primary source of concern for Noise2Inverse viability. While these limitations exist, incorporating dose calculations and optimal imaging parameters enables self-supervised deep learning methods such as Noise2Inverse to be integrated into existing experiments to decrease radiation dose.
Characterizing post-fire delayed tree mortality with remote sensing: sizing up the elephant in the room
Abstract Background Despite recent advances in understanding the drivers of tree-level delayed mortality, we lack a method for mapping delayed mortality at landscape and regional scales. Consequently, the extent, magnitude, and effects of delayed mortality on post-fire landscape patterns of burn severity are unknown. We introduce a remote sensing approach for mapping delayed mortality based on post-fire decline in the normalized burn ratio (NBR). NBR decline is defined as the change in NBR between the first post-fire measurement and the minimum NBR value up to 5 years post-fire for each pixel. We validate the method with high-resolution aerial photography from six wildfires in California, Oregon, and Washington, USA, and then compare the extent, magnitude, and effects of delayed mortality on landscape patterns of burn severity among fires and forest types. Results NBR decline was significantly correlated with post-fire canopy mortality (r 2 = 0.50) and predicted the presence of delayed mortality with 83% accuracy based on a threshold of 105 NBR decline. Plots with NBR decline greater than 105 were 23 times more likely to experience delayed mortality than those below the threshold (p < 0.001). Delayed mortality occurred across 6–38% of fire perimeters not affected by stand-replacing fire, generally affecting more areas in cold (22–41%) and wet (30%) forest types than in dry (1.7–19%) types. The total area initially mapped as unburned/very low-severity declined an average of 38.1% and generally persisted in smaller, more fragmented patches when considering delayed mortality. The total area initially mapped as high-severity increased an average of 16.2% and shifted towards larger, more contiguous patches. Conclusions Differences between 1- and 5-year post-fire burn severity maps depict dynamic post-fire mosaics resulting from delayed mortality, with variability among fires reflecting a range of potential drivers. We demonstrate that tree-level delayed mortality scales up to alter higher-level landscape patterns of burn severity with important implications for forest resilience and a range of fire-driven ecological outcomes. Our method can complement existing tree-level studies on drivers of delayed mortality, refine mapping of fire refugia, inform estimates of habitat and carbon losses, and provide a more comprehensive assessment of landscape and regional scale fire effects and trends.
Inflationary stimulated Raman scattering in shock-ignition plasmas
In the shock-ignition inertial confinement fusion scheme, high-intensity lasers propagate through an inhomogeneous coronal plasma, driving a shock designed to cause fuel ignition. During the high-intensity ignitor laser pulse, in the long scale length coronal plasma, back-scattered stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) is likely to be in the kinetic regime. In this work, we use one-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations to show that there is a non-linear frequency shift caused by kinetic effects, resulting in the growth of SRS in an inhomogeneous plasma far exceeding the predictions of fluid theory, the so-called inflationary SRS or iSRS. We find that iSRS occurs over a wide range of density scale lengths relevant to shock-ignition and other directly-driven inertial confinement fusion schemes. The presence of iSRS in shock-ignition plasmas has implications for the theoretical gains from shock-ignition inertial confinement fusion. Here, we quantify the intensity threshold for the onset of iSRS for shock-ignition relevant parameters.