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At least 145 records · Page 8

No constraint on long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties from interannual variability

Unraveling drivers of the interannual variability of tropical land carbon cycle is critical for understanding land carbon-climate feedbacks. Here we utilize two generations of factorial model experiments to show that interannual variability of tropical land carbon uptake under both present and future climate is consistently dominated by terrestrial water availability variations in Earth system models. The magnitude of this interannual sensitivity of tropical land carbon uptake to water availability variations under future climate shows a large spread across the latest 16 models (2.3 ± 1.5 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O), which is constrained to 1.3 ± 0.8 PgC/yr/Tt H 2 O using observations and the emergent constraint methodology. However, the long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedback uncertainties in the latest models can no longer be directly constrained by interannual variability compared with previous models, given that additional important processes are not well reflected in interannual variability but could determine long-term land carbon storage. Our results highlight the limited implication of interannual variability for long-term tropical land carbon-climate feedbacks and help isolate remaining uncertainties with respect to water limitations on tropical land carbon sink in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Different model assumptions about plant hydraulics and photosynthetic temperature acclimation yield diverging implications for tropical forest gross primary production under warming

Tropical forest photosynthesis can decline at high temperatures due to (1) biochemical responses to increasing temperature and (2) stomatal responses to increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which is associated with increasing temperature. It is challenging to disentangle the influence of these two mechanisms on photosynthesis in observations, because temperature and VPD are tightly correlated in tropical forests. Nonetheless, quantifying the relative strength of these two mechanisms is essential for understanding how tropical gross primary production (GPP) will respond to climate change, because increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration may partially offset VPD-driven stomatal responses, but is not expected to mitigate the effects of temperature-driven biochemical responses. We used two terrestrial biosphere models to quantify how physiological process assumptions (photosynthetic temperature acclimation and plant hydraulic stress) and functional traits (e.g., maximum xylem conductivity) influence the relative strength of modeled temperature versus VPD effects on light-saturated GPP at an Amazonian forest site, a seasonally dry tropical forest site, and an experimental tropical forest mesocosm. By simulating idealized climate change scenarios, we quantified the divergence in GPP predictions under model configurations with stronger VPD effects compared with stronger direct temperature effects. Assumptions consistent with stronger direct temperature effects resulted in larger GPP declines under warming, while assumptions consistent with stronger VPD effects resulted in more resilient GPP under warming. Furthermore, our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the role of direct temperature and indirect VPD effects for projecting the resilience of tropical forests in the future, and demonstrate that the relative strength of temperature versus VPD effects in models is highly sensitive to plant functional parameters and structural assumptions about photosynthetic temperature acclimation and plant hydraulics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The partition of energy associated with tropical heat sources

Data sets derived from observations during the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) have permitted the study of the behavior of the tropical atmosphere to an extent not possible before. The present summary discusses characteristics of the tropical atmosphere which may be a result of tropical heating. It is shown that the meridional component of the divergent wind is of the same order of magnitude an he rotational meridional wind for the planetary tropical scales. Furthermore, the first and second internal modes dominate over most of the tropics, and it is shown that gravity and Kelvin codes are the main contributors to the total tropical divergence. Comparison with averaged station precipitation data and heating estimates obtained from Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Science (GLAS)/National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) show good correspondence between areas with maximum internal mode energy and regions with pronounced latent heat release.

Silva-Dias, P. L.↗

The analysis sensitivity to tropical winds from the Global Weather Experiment

The global scale divergent and rotational flow components of the Global Weather Experiment (GWE) are diagnosed from three different analyses of the data. The rotational flow shows closer agreement between the analyses than does the divergent flow. Although the major outflow and inflow centers are similarly placed in all analyses, the global kinetic energy of the divergent wind varies by about a factor of 2 between different analyses while the global kinetic energy of the rotational wind varies by only about 10 percent between the analyses. A series of real data assimilation experiments has been performed with the GLA general circulation model using different amounts of tropical wind data during the First Special Observing Period of the Global Weather Experiment. In exeriment 1, all available tropical wind data were used; in the second experiment, tropical wind data were suppressed; while, in the third and fourth experiments, only tropical wind data with westerly and easterly components, respectively, were assimilated. The rotational wind appears to be more sensitive to the presence or absence of tropical wind data than the divergent wind. It appears that the model, given only extratropical observations, generates excessively strong upper tropospheric westerlies. These biases are sufficiently pronounced to amplify the globally integrated rotational flow kinetic energy by about 10 percent and the global divergent flow kinetic energy by about a factor of 2. Including only easterly wind data in the tropics is more effective in controlling the model error than including only westerly wind data. This conclusion is especially noteworthy because approximately twice as many upper tropospheric westerly winds were available in these cases as easterly winds.

Paegle, J.↗

Tropical cyclone-upper atmospheric interaction as inferred from satellite total ozone observations

The Nimbus-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) was used to map the distribution of total ozone in and around western Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1979 to 1982. It was found that the TOMS-observed total ozone distribution within the subtropics during the tropical cyclone season correlated well with the tropopause topography, similar to earlier middle-latitudinal observations. This relationship made it possible to use TOMS to monitor the propagation of upper-tropospheric subtropical transient waves and the mutual adjustment between the tropical cyclone and the upper-tropospheric waves during their interaction. These total ozone patterns reflected the three-dimensional upper-tropospheric transport processes that were conducive for storm intensification and weakening. It was also found from satellite observations and numerical model simulations that modification of the environmental distribution of total ozone by the tropical cyclones was primarily caused by the secondary circulation associated with the tropical cyclone's outflow jet and the intrusion of stratospheric air in the eyes of tropical cyclones.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗

Tracer exchange between tropics and middle latitudes

The interaction between the tropics and middle latitudes is studied using a tracer emitted at 50 hPa along a great circle route between Los Angeles, USA and Sydney, Australia. Though designed to examine the impact of stratospheric aircraft, the study more generally addresses the transport between tropics and middle latitudes for a three month period from January through March 1989. The results show that air is transported from the tropics to middle latitudes by planetary scale and tropospheric cyclonic scale waves. Except for intrusions by these wave events, the tropics are substantially isolated throughout the lower stratosphere. These waves draw material out of the tropics which ends up in the middle latitude westerly jets, with little material entering the winter polar latitudes prior to the springtime transition. The summer Southern Hemisphere is characterized by tracer being drawn out in streamers that extend from north and west to south and east. The material in the tropics is zonally asymmetric. The material that reaches the troposphere comes down in the synoptic scale eddies and is concentrated in the middle latitude jet stream. These characteristics are similar to those observed during the dispersion of volcanic clouds.

Rood, Richard↗

On the response of the tropical atmosphere to large-scale deforestation

Recent studies on the Amazon deforestation problem predict that removal of the forest will result in a higher surface temperature, a significant reduction in evaporation and precipitation, and possibly significant changes in the tropical circulation. Here, we discuss the basic mechanisms contributing to the response of the tropical atmosphere to deforestation. A simple linear model of the tropical atmosphere is used in studying the effects of deforestation on climate. It is suggested that the impact of large-scale deforestation on the circulation of the tropical atmosphere consists of two components: the response of the tropical circulation to the negative change in precipitation (heating), and the response of the same circulation to the positive change in surface temperature. Owing to their different signs, the changes in predicted temperature and precipitation excite competing responses working in opposite directions. The predicted change in tropical circulation determines the change, if any, in atmospheric moisture convergence, which is equivalent to the change in run-off. The dependence of run-off predictions on the relative magnitudes of the predicted changes in precipitation and surface temperature implies that the predictions about run-off are highly sensitive, which explains, at least partly, the disagreement between the different models concerning the sign of the predicted change in Amazonian run-off.

Eltahir, E. A. B.↗

The influence of tropical heating displacements on the extratropical climate

The hypothesis is advanced that a latitudinal shift in the tropical convective heating pattern can significantly alter temperatures in the extratropics. Results of a simplified general circulation model (GCM) show that the shift of a prescribed tropical heating toward the summer pole, on time scales longer than a few weeks, leads to a more intense cross-equatorial 'winter' Hadley circulation, enhanced upper-level tropical easterlies, and a slightly stronger subtropical winter jet, accompanied by warming at the winter middle and high latitudes as a result of increased dynamical heating. The indications are that there is a robust connection between the net dynamic heating in the extratropics and the implied changes in the subtropical wind shear resulting from adjustments in the Hadley circulation associated with convective heating displacements in the tropics. The implications are that (1) the low-frequency temporal variability in the Hadley circulation may play an important role in modulating wave transport in the winter extratropics, (2) the global climate may be sensitive to those processes that control deep cumulus convection in the tropics, and (3) systematic temperature biases in GCMs may be reduced by improving the tropical rainfall simulation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Role of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the Transport of Aerosols from the Tropical Stratospheric Reservoir to Midlatitudes

The temporal evolution of the stratospheric aerosol distribution in the tropical stratospheric reservoir after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo was observed from 1992 to 1995 by the HALOE instrument on the UARS satellite. Since the spatial gradient of aerosol loading is large at the boundaries of the tropical stratospheric reservoir due to the volcanic aerosols, the effect of the meridional circulation on the distribution is seen clearly. The mechanism for dispersal of aerosol in the lower stratosphere from the tropics into midlatitudes strongly depends on the phase of the equatorial zonal wind. The time-latitude cross sections of the normalized distribution of aerosol on isentropic surfaces are used to observe the equatorial variation as well as change in meridional dispersal during the quasi-biennial period. Observed tropical stratospheric winds are used with a simple analytical dynamical model to examine transport processes of tracers from the tropics during several phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) from 1992 to 1995. The Lagrangian meridional circulation in the tropics is consistent with the vertical and meridional velocities correlated with the QBO in the zonal wind. We find that vertical motion plays a crucial role in vertical and subsequent meridional transport. The pattern of meridional divergence derived from the vertical velocity is closely related to the observed HALOE aerosol distributions and their temporal development in the equatorial region. The westerly (easterly) shear phase of the QBO is associated with sinking (rising) motions at the equator and subsequent poleward (equatorward) transport in the lower stratosphere.

Choi, Wookap↗

Status of TRMM Monthly Estimates of Tropical Precipitation

Nearly three years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite (TRMM Satellite) monthly estimates of tropical surface rainfall are analyzed to document and understand the differences among the TRMM-based estimates and how these differences relate to the pre-TRMM estimates and current operational analyses. Variation among the TRMM estimates is shown to be considerably smaller than among a pre-TRMM collection of passive microwave-based products. Use of both passive and active microwave techniques in TRMM should lead to increased confidence in converged estimates. Current TRMM estimates are shown to have a range of about 20% for the tropical ocean as a whole, with variations in heavily raining ocean areas of the ITCZ and SPCZ having differences over 30%. In mid-latitude ocean areas the differences are smaller. Over land there is a distinct difference between the tropics and mid-latitude with a reversal between some of the products as to which tends to be relatively high or low. Comparisons of TRMM estimates with ocean atoll and land gauge information point to products that might have significant regional biases. The radar-based product is significantly low biased compared with atoll raingauge data, while the passive microwave product is significantly high compared to raingauge data in the deep tropics. The evolution of rainfall patterns during the recent change from intense El Nino to a long period of La Nina and then a gradual return to near neutral conditions is described using TRMM. The time history of integrated rainfall over the tropical oceans (and land) during this period differs among the passive and active microwave TRMM estimates.

Adler, Robert F.↗

Interactions Between the Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Atlantic SST in a Coupled General Circulation Model

Tropical Atlantic SST shows a (statistically well-defined) decadal time scale in a 104-year simulation of unforced variability by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The SST anomalies superficially resemble observed Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and are associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation. Brazilian rainfall is modulated with a decadal time scale, along with the strength of the Atlantic trade winds, which are associated with variations in evaporation and the net surface heat flux. However, in contrast to observed tropical Atlantic variability, the trade winds damp the associated anomalies in ocean temperature, indicating a negative feedback. Tropical SST anomalies in the CGCM, though opposed by the surface heat flux, are advected in from the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. These variations modulate the strength of the thermohaline circulation (THC): warm, salty anomalies at the equator sink drawing cold, fresh mid-latitude water. Upon reaching the equator, the latter inhibit vertical overturning and advection from higher latitudes, which allows warm, salty anomalies to reform, returning the cycle to its original state. Thus, the cycle results from advection of density anomalies and the effect of these anomalies upon the rate of vertical overturning and surface advection. This decadal modulation of Tropical Atlantic SST and the thermohaline circulation is correlated with ocean heat transport to the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and Norwegian Sea SST. Because of the central role of equatorial convection, we question whether this mechanism is present in the current climate, although we speculate that it may have operated in palaeo times, depending upon the stability of the tropical water column.

Miller, Ron↗

HO(x) Measurements in PEM Tropics B with the Airborne Tropospheric Hydrogen Oxides Sensor (ATHOS)

The primary objective of PEM Tropics B was to study the processes responsible for the production and loss of tropospheric ozone over the tropical Pacific. This region of the globe contains very clean air as well as aged, polluted air that was advected from both the Asian and American continents. Understanding ozone requires understanding of HO(x) (HO(x) = OH + HO2) chemistry, since the reaction between H02 and NO leads to ozone production and the production of OH often requires ozone loss. In addition, OH is the atmosphere's primary oxidant. Since most atmospheric oxidation is thought to occur in the tropical lower troposphere, measurements during PEM Tropics B should provide an important test of the OH abundances and distributions. Thus, understanding and thoroughly testing HO(x) processes was an important objective of PEM Tropics B. Several issues need to be tested, One is HO, production rates and sources, since HO,, production directly affects ozone production and loss. Another is HO(x) behavior in and around clouds, since HO(x) is lost to cloud particles, but convection may bring HO(x) precursors from near the surface to the upper troposphere. A third is the rise and fall of HO(x) at sunrise and sunset, since these variations give strong indications of the important sources and sinks of HO(x). Making and interpreting high-quality OH and H02 measurements from the NASA DC-8 during PEM Tropics B is the objective of this research effort.

Brune, William H.↗

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Future of Rainfall Estimation from Space

Tropical rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics, NASA for the U.S.A. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of a satellite mission to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated latent heat release. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched on November 27, 1997, and data from all the instruments first became available approximately 30 days after launch. Since then, much progress has been made in the calibration of the sensors, the improvement of the rainfall algorithms and applications of these results to areas such as Data Assimilation and model initialization. TRMM has reduced the uncertainty of climatological rainfall in tropics by over a factor of two, therefore establishing a standard for comparison with previous data sets and climatologies. It has documented the diurnal variation of precipitation over the oceans, showing a distinct early morning peak and this satellite mission has shown the utility of precipitation information for the improvement of numerical weather forecasts and climate modeling. This paper discusses some promising applications using TRMM data and introduces a measurement concept being discussed by NASA/NASDA and ESA for the future of rainfall estimation from space.

Kakar, Ramesh↗

Comparison of the Variability of Constituents from a 3D Simulation with Observations in the Tropics

Fields from chemical transport models (CTMs) driven by assimilated winds have been shown to represent many aspects of observations at middle and high latitudes. Comparisons of modeled fields with observations have been much poorer in the tropics. Noise in the tropical winds produces variability in constituents in the tropics that greatly exceeds what is observed, Constituent gradients between the tropics, subtropics and middle latitudes are weaker than observed in the lower stratosphere. Tropical transport is shown to be much more realistic using a CTM driven by winds from the assimilation system that has recently been developed by the Data Assimilation Office at Goddard Space Flight Center. The Finite Volume Community Climate Model (FV-CCM), a general circulation model model that uses the NCAR CCM physics and the Lin and Rood dynamical core, is at the core of the new assimilation system. Realistic transport in the tropics, particularly troposphere to stratosphere exchange, is an obvious requirement for realistic representation of the stratosphere to troposphere transport of ozone and other stratospheric constituents to the middle latitude upper troposphere.

Douglass, A. R.↗

Evidence for Large Decadal Variability in the Tropical Mean Radiative Energy Budget

It is widely assumed that variations in the radiative energy budget at large time and space scales are very small. We present new evidence from a compilation of over two decades of accurate satellite data that the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) tropical radiative energy budget is much more dynamic and variable than previously thought. We demonstrate that the radiation budget changes are caused by changes In tropical mean cloudiness. The results of several current climate model simulations fall to predict this large observed variation In tropical energy budget. The missing variability in the models highlights the critical need to Improve cloud modeling in the tropics to support Improved prediction of tropical climate on Inter-annual and decadal time scales. We believe that these data are the first rigorous demonstration of decadal time scale changes In the Earth's tropical cloudiness, and that they represent a new and necessary test of climate models.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗

Evaluation of Transport in the Lower Tropical Stratosphere in a Global Chemistry and Transport Model

Off-line models of the evolution of stratospheric constituents use meteorological information from a general circulation model (GCM) or from a data assimilation system (DAS). Here we focus on transport in the tropics and between the tropics and middle latitudes. Constituent fields from two simulations are compared with each other and with observations. One simulation uses winds from a GCM and the second uses winds from a DAS that has the same GCM at its core. Comparisons of results from the two simulations with observations from satellite, aircraft, and sondes are used to judge the realism of the tropical transport. Faithful comparisons between simulated fields and observations for O3, CH4, and the age-of-air are found for the simulation using the GCM fields. The same comparisons for the simulation using DAS fields show rapid upward tropical transport and excessive mixing between the tropics and middle latitudes. The unrealistic transport found in the DAS fields may be due to the failure of the GCM used in the assimilation system to represent the quasi-biennial oscillation. The assimilation system accounts for differences between the observations and the GCM by requiring implicit forcing to produce consistency between the GCM and observations. These comparisons suggest that the physical consistency of the GCM fields is more important to transport characteristics in the lower tropical stratosphere than the elimination bias with respect to meteorological observations that is accomplished by the DAS. The comparisons presented here show that GCM fields are more appropriate for long-term calculations to assess the impact of changes in stratospheric composition because the balance between photochemical and transport terms is likely to be represented correctly.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

The Correlation Between Tropical Convection and Upper Tropospheric Momentum Flux Convergence

In this study, the relationship between tropical convection and the meridional convergence of zonal momentum flux in the tropical upper troposphere is investigated using NOAA interpolated outgoing longwave radiation data and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis wind data. In particular, a variety of correlation coefficients are calculated between the data sets, both of which are filtered to isolate disturbances with frequencies and wavenumbers consistent with the Madden-Julian oscillation. The results show regions of significant correlation during each season, with the magnitude and area covered by significant correlation coefficients varying with season. Furthermore, it is found that the correlation structures look very similar to theoretical calculations of the atmospheric response to a region of tropical heating. This result suggests that tropical waves, in particular mixed Rossby-gravity waves, play an important role in the meridional transport zonal momentum into the deep tropical upper troposphere. Finally, these findings have implications to the generation of rising motion near the tropical tropopause, which in turn has ramifications for vertical moisture transport and tropopause cirrus formation.

O'CStarr, David↗

TRMM Data from the Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) DISC DAAC: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)

Tropical rainfall affects the lives and economies of a majority of the Earth's population. Tropical rain systems, such as hurricanes, typhoons, and monsoons, are crucial to sustaining the livelihoods of those living in the tropics. Excess rainfall can cause floods and great property and crop damage, whereas too little rainfall can cause drought and crop failure. The latent heat release during the process of precipitation is a major source of energy that drives the atmospheric circulation. This latent heat can intensify weather systems, affecting weather thousands of kilometers away, thus making tropical rainfall an important indicator of atmospheric circulation and short-term climate change. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of Japan, provides visible, infrared, and microwave observations of tropical and subtropical rain systems. The satellite observations are complemented by ground radar and rain gauge measurements to validate satellite rain estimation techniques. Goddard Space Flight Center's involvement includes the observatory, four instruments, integration and testing of the observatory, data processing and distribution, and satellite operations. TRMM has a design lifetime of three years. It is currently in its fifth year of operation. Data generated from TRMM and archived at the GES DAAC are useful not only for hydrologists, atmospheric scientists, and climatologists, but also for the health community studying infectious diseases, the ocean research community, and the agricultural community.

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