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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Front-End Engineering Design Study for Retrofit Post-Combustion Carbon Capture on a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant

The objective of the project is to conduct a Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) study to determine the technical and economic feasibility of installing a retrofit, post-combustion, carbon capture facility on a commercially operating, natural gas-fired, combined cycle (NGCC) power plant. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), California Resources Corporation (CRC), and Fluor Corporation used Fluor's Econamine FG Plus SM (EFG+) conducted the FEED study for capturing CO 2 produced by CRC's 550 MWe Elk Hills Power Plant (EHPP), located in the Elk Hills Oil Field near Tupman, Kern County, California. The EHPP was commissioned in 2003 and is powered by two General Electric 7FA gas turbines, with two heat recovery steam generators (HRSGs) providing steam to a General Electric D11 steam turbine. The target capture amount is 4,000 tonnes CO 2 /day for use in either enhanced oil recovery or dedicated geological saline storage located on CRC property at or nearby EHPP. This CO 2 is captured from a combination of the CO 2 emitted from the flue gas from EHPP and the flue gas generated from a natural gas-fired auxiliary boiler that supplies steam to the EFG+ process.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Role of Inlet Boundary Conditions on Fuel-Air Mixing at Supercritical Conditions

Advanced engine design and alternative fuels present the possibility of fuel injection at purely supercritical conditions in diesel engines and gas turbines. The complex interactions that govern this phenomenon still need significant research, particularly the boundary conditions for fuel injection are critical for accurate simulation. However, the flow inside the injector itself is often omitted to reduce the computational efforts, and thus, velocity, mass flux, or total pressure is specified at the injector exit (or domain inlet), often with simplified velocity profiles and turbulence levels. This simplified inlet boundary treatment has minimal effects on results for conventional fuel injection conditions, however, the validity of this approach at supercritical conditions has not been assessed. Comprehensive real-gas and binary fluid mixing models have been implemented for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of fuel-air mixing at supercritical conditions. The model is verified using prior CFD results from the literature. The model is used to investigate the effects of the shape of axial velocity and mass fraction profiles at the inlet boundary with the goal to improve the comparison of predictions to experimental data. Results show that the boundary conditions have a significant effect on the predictions, and none of the cases match precisely with experimental data. Furthermore, the study reveals that the physical location of the inlet boundary might be difficult to infer correctly from the experiments and highlights the need for high-quality, repeatable measurements at supercritical conditions to support the development of relevant high-fidelity models for fuel-air mixing.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of a Distributed Element Roughness Model to Additively Manufactured Internal Cooling Channels

Abstract Design for cooling effectiveness in turbine blades relies on accurate models for dynamic losses and heat transfer of internal cooling passages. Metal additive manufacturing (AM) has expanded the design space for these configurations, but can give rise to large-scale roughness features. The range of roughness length scales in these systems makes morphology resolved computational fluid dynamics (CFD) impractical. However, volumetric roughness models can be leveraged, as they have computational costs orders of magnitude lower. In this work, a discrete element roughness model (DERM), based on the double-averaged Navier–Stokes equations, is presented and applied to additively manufactured rough channels, representative of gas turbine blade cooling passages. Unique to this formulation of DERM is a generalized sheltering-based treatment of drag, a two-layer model for spatially averaged Reynolds stresses, and explicit treatment of dispersion. Six different AM rough surface channel configurations are studied, with roughness trough to peak sizes ranging from 15% to 60% nominal channel passage half-width, and the roughness Reynolds number ranges from Rek = 60 to 300. DERM predictions for spatially and temporally averaged mean flow quantities are compared to previously reported direct numerical simulation results. Good agreement in the mean velocity profiles, stress balances, and drag partitions are observed. While DERM models are typically calibrated to specific deterministic roughness morphologies at comparatively small roughness Reynolds numbers, the present more generalized DERM formulation has wider applicability. Here, it is demonstrated that the model can accommodate random roughness of large scale, typical of AM.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design, Fabrication, and Screening of Environmental‐Thermal Barrier Coatings Prepared by Ultrafast High‐Temperature Sintering

Abstract The demand for more efficient gas turbines relies heavily on the development of new environmental‐thermal barrier coatings (ETBCs). However, there is still uncertainty about which alloys and composites will be used for the next generation of turbine blades, as well as the most promising coating materials. Herein, an ETBCs development strategy is presented by integrating the coating design, synthesis, and screening using an ultrafast high temperature sintering (UHS) technique to accelerate coating improvements. The initial basis for composition selection is their thermal expansion mismatch with the substrate alloys; for which a temperature‐dependent coefficient of thermal expansion database is created. By combining tape casting method with the UHS technique a high‐throughput synthesis of single and multi‐layer coatings are realized with different compositions, layer stacking sequences, and layer thicknesses. To evaluate the coatings, thermal cycling tests from room temperature to 1300 °C are conducted. The approach enabled coatings on objects with complex geometries, multi‐layer ETBCs, and porosity tailoring by using staged UHS that runs with different temperatures and durations. The fast iteration strategy is more cost‐effective for the screening of ETBCs compared to conventional methods and greater throughput which can be further extended for rapid optimization of other materials systems.

Xie, Hua↗
DOE OSTI2024

Micro–macro finite element modeling method for rub response in abradable coating materials

Gas turbine engines experience “rub” when the rotating blades come in contact with a static abradable coating. This results in extreme strain rates and dynamics inside a high-temperature/high-pressure environment. Current rub models are phenomenological and do not reflect the underlying microstructures, thus limiting their prediction accuracy. In this work, a microstructure-informed, reduced order modeling framework is introduced for simulating abradable coating “rub" behavior. This framework comprises a microscale model constructed based on digitized abradable microstructure and explicitly simulates the mechanical behavior of each constituent phases and their interactions. After calibration and validation with experiment data, the calibrated microscale model is used to generate data across a vast range of applied strain rates and temperature with various load paths. Then, the virtually generated data are used to fit the macroscopic-reduced order model, which enables fast component scale rub simulation without compromising the integrity of the complex material behavior. In conclusion, the proposed effort will address the technical challenge of predicting abradable material behavior during rub through the application of multiscale modeling from microstructure to engines behavior, effectively reducing the development costs and time of new abradable material for better “rub” properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Invited Review Paper in Commemoration of Over 50 Years of Oxidation of Metals: Addressing the Role of Water Vapor on Long-Term Stainless Steel Oxidation Behavior

In the past 20 years, it has become clear that the long-term exposure of chromia-forming austenitic stainless steels to air containing ~ 10 vol% water vapor at 650–800 °C significantly increases the Cr consumption rate compared to laboratory air. However, a similar acceleration does not occur in 100% steam because O 2 is not available to form volatile CrO 2 (OH) 2 . As the research has shown, this accelerated Cr loss is particularly important for thin-walled components like gas turbine recuperators. Typically, conventional austenitic stainless steels exhibit accelerated attack (i.e., rapid formation of Fe-rich oxide nodules), while higher alloyed steels resist this type of degradation until the alloy surface becomes Cr depleted. The development of strategies and solutions for this issue are reviewed. Model Fe–Cr–Ni alloys have been used to study composition effects on this behavior. For example, increasing the Mn content up to ~ 4 wt% was not beneficial, but increasing the Ni content improved oxidation resistance in this environment. However, at 650–700 °C even highly alloyed steels showed surface Cr depletion at alloy grain boundaries resulting in Fe-rich oxide nodule formation. The path forward for this issue will require more refined mechanistic understanding and increased used of modeling to develop better application-specific lifetime models to identify the most cost-effective alloy solutions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Plasma assisted NH 3 /H 2 /air ignition in nanosecond discharges with non-equilibrium energy transfer

Ammonia (NH 3 ), with its high energy density and easiness to store and transport as a hydrogen carrier, has become a promising alternative green fuel. However, its adoption in power generation is hindered by challenges such as low burning velocity, slow low-temperature oxidation, high NO x emissions, and ignition difficulty. Here, this work computationally investigates the effects of non-equilibrium energy transfer by nanosecond discharges on NH 3 ignition and flame propagation in an NH 3 /H 2 /air flow at 700 K and 1 atm. The simulation results demonstrate that NH 3 /air mixtures require a large ignition energy due to their large critical ignition radius. It is shown that adding 30 % hydrogen significantly reduces the critical ignition radius and minimum ignition energy. Two-dimensional modeling further shows a non-monotonic dependence of ignition kernel volume on the applied voltage and reduced electric field. The optimum ignition enhancement occurs at 200 Td where the generation of electronically excited species and radicals including N 2 (B), O( 1 D) and OH becomes most efficient. Higher voltages divert electron energy toward ionization, which makes it less effective for NH 3 ignition. The study also identifies an optimal electrode gap size for a given pulse energy. Smaller gap sizes increase deposited energy density, raising temperature and radical concentrations. However, excessive reduction of the gap distance reduces flame propagation speed due to the flame stretch effect in rich mixtures with the effective Lewis number greater than unity. A nonlinear relationship between pulse repetition frequency and ignition kernel volume is observed in a nanosecond pulsed high frequency discharge (NPHFD). An optimal frequency range of 200 kHz to 2 MHz is found when two pulses are used. In addition, an optimal number of pulses exists for each pulse repetition frequency, with higher frequencies requiring more pulses to maximize the overlap region. These findings provide critical insights on developing controlled plasma discharge techniques for efficient NH 3 ignition in reactive flows within internal combustion engines and gas turbines.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

CAMERA: A method for cost-aware, adaptive, multifidelity, efficient reliability analysis

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distributions, and Monte Carlo sampling methods are intractable when expensive high-fidelity simulations have to be queried. Here, we propose a method to use models of multiple fidelities that trade accuracy for computational efficiency. Specifically, we propose the use of multifidelity Gaussian process models to efficiently fuse models at multiple fidelity, thereby offering a cheap surrogate model that emulates the original model at all fidelities. Furthermore, we propose a novel sequential acquisition function based experiment design framework that can automatically select samples from appropriate fidelity models to make predictions about quantities of interest at the highest fidelity. We use our proposed approach in an importance sampling setting and demonstrate our method on the failure level set and probability estimation on synthetic test functions and two real-world applications, namely, the reliability analysis of a gas turbine engine blade using a finite element method and a transonic aerodynamic wing test case using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show that our method predicts the failure boundary and probability more accurately and at a fraction of the computational cost compared with using just a single expensive high-fidelity model. Finally, we show that our sequential approach is guaranteed to asymptotically converge to the true failure boundary with high probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dry air cyclic oxidation of mixed Y/Yb disilicate environmental barrier coatings and bare silica formers

Here mixed Y and Yb disilicate coatings (Y/Yb)DS have been proposed as dual function thermal and environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) for protecting SiC-based ceramic matrix composites in gas-turbine environments. As an initial step, the 1350 °C dry air cyclic oxidation of atmospheric plasma sprayed (Y 1.2 /Yb 0.8 )DS and ytterbium disilicate/ytterbium monosilicate (YbDS/YbMS) EBCs deposited onto Si bond coatings was compared. As a baseline for evaluating EBC oxidant permeability, the dry air cyclic oxidation scale growth rates for bare silica formers (SiC, Si) were also measured and were consistently higher than rates previously measured after isothermal oxidation. Regarding Si bond coat oxidation rates underlying (Y/Yb)DS and YbDS/YbMS EBCs, the thinner silica scale formed under the thinner and denser (Y/Yb)DS coatings suggested a lower oxidant permeability than YbDS/YbMS. After 500 1-h cycles, the (Y/Yb)DS coating was comprised of only the β-polymorph disilicate and minor amounts of the X-2 phase monosilicate phase. Negligible differences in oxidation kinetics for (Y/Yb)DS coatings over the 90 – 240 µm thickness range were observed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling deformation and failure in AlSi-polyester abradable sealcoating material using microstructure-based finite element simulation

A plasma-sprayed aluminum-silicon (AlSi)/polyester coating is applied in modern gas turbine engines as an abradable sealcoating to maintain tight clearances between the rotating blades and the static casing. While running the engine, the rotating blades “rub” with the abradable coating, which results in extreme strain rate (up to 10 6 ) dynamics and a high-temperature environment. Due to the difficulty of collecting direct measurements, predictive computational models are important for analyzing the deformation and failure of the abradable material, to help meet the design target of avoiding damage to the blade tip and maintaining high fuel efficiency. In this research, a microstructure-based finite element (FE) computational model was developed to capture the complex mechanical behavior of the AlSi/polyester microstructure. The model is based on a virtual representative-volume-element (RVE) of a metal-polymer microstructure, reconstructed from x-ray computed tomography. It models the plastic deformation of, and damage to, each AlSi and polyester constituents, as well as the failure at their interface. The model was calibrated and validated with uniaxial tension and compression experiments, conducted at two temperatures (298 K and 533 K) at an applied strain rate of 10 3 - 10 4 s -1 . The material exhibited strongly asymmetric tension-compression behavior and a sensitivity to temperature, which was well captured by the model. The model was further applied to investigate changes in mechanical behavior due to variations in constituents’ volume fractions, which provides guidance to the microstructural design of AlSi/polyester abradable materials. The model is expected to facilitate the development of improved abradable materials by bypassing the conventional trial-and-error approach and extensive testing requirements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Transcritical diffuse-interface hydrodynamics of propellants in high-pressure combustors of chemical propulsion systems

Rocket engines and high-power new generations of gas-turbine jet engines and diesel engines oftentimes involve the injection of one or more reactants at subcritical temperatures into combustor environments at high pressures, and more particularly at pressures higher than those corresponding to the critical points of the individual components of the mixture, which typically range from 13 to 50 bars for most propellants. This class of trajectories in the thermodynamic space has been traditionally referred to as transcritical. However, the fundamental understanding of fuel atomization, vaporization, mixing, and combustion processes at such high pressures remains elusive. In particular, whereas fuel sprays are relatively well characterized at normal pressures, analyses of dispersion of fuel in high-pressure combustors are hindered by the limited experimental diagnostics and theoretical formulations available. The description of the thermodynamics of hydrocarbon-fueled mixtures employed in chemical propulsion systems is complex and involves mixing-induced phenomena, including an elevation of the critical point whereby the coexistence region of the mixture extends up to pressures much larger than the critical pressures of the individual components. As a result, interfaces subject to surface-tension forces may persist in multicomponent systems despite the high pressures, and may give rise to unexpected spray-like atomization dynamics that are otherwise absent in monocomponent systems above their critical point. In this article, the current understanding of this phenomenon is reviewed within the context of propulsion systems fueled by heavy hydrocarbons. Emphasis is made on analytical descriptions at mesoscopic scales of interest for computational fluid dynamics. In particular, a set of modifications of the constitutive laws in the Navier–Stokes equations for multicomponent flows, supplemented with a high-pressure equation of state and appropriate redefinitions of the thermodynamic potentials, are introduced in this work based on an extended version of the diffuse-interface theory of van der Waals. The resulting formulation involves revisited forms of the stress tensor and transport fluxes of heat and species, and enables a description of the mesoscopic volumetric effects induced by transcritical interfaces consistently with the thermodynamic phase diagram of the mixture at high pressures. Additionally, applications of the theory are illustrated in canonical problems, including dodecane/nitrogen transcritical interfaces in non-isothermal systems. The results indicate that a transcritical interface is formed between the propellant streams that persists downstream of the injection orifice over distances of the same order as the characteristic thermal-entrance length of the fuel stream. The transcritical interface vanishes at an edge that gives rise to a fully supercritical mixing layer.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Phase diagram to demarcate supercritical, transcritical, and continuous phase regimes for binary fluid equilibrium mixing relevant to combustion applications

Here, a robust methodology to develop phase diagrams of binary fluid mixtures at fixed thermo dynamic conditions (pressure, temperature, and mole fraction) as well as of two initially separated fluids undergoing mixing near critical conditions are presented for fluids and con ditions relevant to rockets, gas turbines, and diesel engine applications. Phase equilibria of mixtures is first examined to provide insight into the continuous-phase mixing behavior (including but not limited to supercritical behavior), and to develop a broadly applicable phase-diagram for binary fluid mixtures at fixed conditions. Next, adiabatic mixing theory and reduced Helmholtz equations of state are used to predict the thermodynamic conditions required to attain continuous-phase binary fluid mixing near critical conditions. Then, a 3D surface diagram (P,T fuel ,T amb ) separating single and two-phase regions is constructed by varying the ambient pressure and the initial temperatures of the two fluids. Polynomial fits of the 3D surfaces for 10 different binary mixtures are tabulated for nitrogen-alkane and methane-oxygen blends relevant to air-breathing and propellant based engines, respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Progress and Prospective of Nitrogen-Based Alternative Fuels

Alternative fuels are essential to enable the transition to a sustainable and environmentally friendly energy supply. Synthetic fuels derived from renewable energies can act as energy storage media, thus mitigating the effects of fossil fuels on environment and health. Their economic viability, environmental impact, and compatibility with current infrastructure and technologies are fuel and power source specific. Nitrogen-based fuels pose one possible synthetic fuel pathway. In this paper, we discuss the progress and current research on utilization of nitrogen-based fuels in power applications, covering the complete fuel cycle. We cover the production, distribution, and storage of nitrogen-based fuels. We assess much of the existing literature on the reactions involved in the ammonia to nitrogen atom pathway in nitrogen-based fuel combustion. Furthermore, we discuss nitrogen-based fuel applications ranging from combustion engines to gas turbines, as well as their exploitation by suggested end-uses. Thereby, we evaluate the potential opportunities and challenges of expanding the role of nitrogen-based molecules in the energy sector, outlining their use as energy carriers in relevant fields.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mechanism, Thermochemistry, and Kinetics for the CH + N 2 Reaction Leading to Prompt NO Formation in Combustion

Here, the reaction of CH + N 2 forming H + NCN is a remarkable example of activation of the nitrogen triple bond and is an important source of prompt NO in combustion. The reaction pathway is complex and proceeds through two competing mechanisms: a cyclic addition channel initiated by c-HC(NN) and a chain-addition channel initiated by HCNN, both of which eventually form HNCN prior to dissociation to H + NCN. This work reinvestigates this reaction with composite coupled cluster protocols, including a novel spin-flip equation of motion coupled cluster scheme, combined with pragmatic two-dimensional master equation simulations of the resulting rate coefficients. These improved calculations predict the CH + N 2 rate coefficient between the two more recent previous theoretical results and reduce the uncertainties of the best theoretical models of this reaction to less than a factor of 1.3. Additionally, we provide a closer theoretical investigation of the simultaneous dependence of the CH + N 2 rate coefficient on pressure and temperature, and affirm that collisionally stabilized HNCN, another potential source of prompt NO, emerges as an appreciable product of this reaction under conditions relevant to automotive internal combustion engines and aircraft gas turbine engines.

Nguyen, Thanh Lam [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discovery and Characterization of a Metastable Cubic Interstitial Nickel–Carbon System with an Expanded Lattice

Metastable, i.e., kinetically favored but thermodynamically not stable, interstitial solid solutions of carbon in iron are well-understood. Carbon can occupy the interstitial atoms of the host metal, altering its properties. Alloying of the host metal results in the stabilization of the FeC x phases, widening its application. Pure nickel finds niche applications, mainly focusing on catalysis, while nickel alloys are widely applied, e.g., in gas turbines, reactors, and seawater piping. Nickel carbide (Ni 3 C) is the well-known stable Ni–C system displaying a rhombohedral (R3̅c) crystal structure. Some reports describe an elusive cubic Ni–C system, observed during certain catalytic reactions occurring on nickel and formed by the occupation of the interstitials of the metal with carbon: to date, the stabilization and characterization of this phase have not been accomplished. Hereby, we report on the synthesis of a cubic metastable NiC x phase using chemical vapor deposition of methane on supported nickel nanoparticles. The structure was predicted by DFT/ReaxFF, synthesized and monitored with in situ time-resolved synchrotron XRD, and experimentally confirmed by Rietveld refinement and (S)TEM-EELS under ambient conditions. The results show an Fm3̅m phase with a lattice parameter of a = 3.749 ± 0.037 Å at room temperature, with the highest ever reported atomic percentage of carbon occupying the octahedral interstices of 23.1%, resulting in a NiC 0.3 phase. The degree of occupation of the interstitial voids by carbon can be controlled, enabling the tuning of the host metal’s d-spacing and composition, highlighting the applicability of this synthesis route for catalytic nanoparticle preparation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chemical influence of ammonia on suppressing soot formation pathways

There is interest in mixing ammonia (NH3) with hydrocarbons, as this decreases overall CO2 emissions from the fuel mixture when burned. Co-firing NH3 with hydrocarbons like methane (CH4) also enables stable combustion over a larger set of operating conditions in engines and gas turbines than firing only NH3 permits. When NH3 is co-fired with hydrocarbons, the influence of NH3 on soot formation chemistry becomes relevant. In this work, soot concentrations in laminar nonpremixed co-flow flames of NH3/CH4 and N2/CH4 were analyzed using color-ratio pyrometry. The concentrations of combustion species (CH4, CO2, H2O, O2, C2H2, C6H6, HCN) across the different flames were also determined using on-line electron-impact mass spectrometry. The flames were also interrogated with 2D CFD simulations, which employ a detailed chemical mechanism tailored to capturing fuel-nitrogen chemistry. Addition of NH3 to CH4 flames was found to decrease soot concentrations more significantly than N2-addition (Fig. 1). The NH3/CH4 flames were found to have higher flame temperatures than the N2/CH4 flames, implying the suppression of soot afforded by NH3 is due to a chemical influence of NH3, as opposed to thermal or dilution effects. Based on experimental and simulated soot volume fractions and species concentrations, soot formation pathways affected by NH3 are postulated.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stress-dependent χ phase transformation in a Ni-based superalloy

The ongoing push to elevate operating temperatures in aerospace gas turbine engines – driven by goals of enhanced fuel efficiency and reduced CO 2 emissions – mandates advancements in the creep resistance of Ni- and Co-based superalloys, which are integral for critical engine components. This study elucidates the role of stress assisted localized phase transformations in the creep properties of these alloys. By leveraging chemo-mechanical coupling, self-healing γ′ precipitates are designed to immobilize planar defects, thereby increasing creep resistance. Employing advanced characterization techniques such as high-resolution Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (HR-STEM), in conjunction with atomistic simulations and thermodynamic calculations, novel deformation pathways facilitated by χ local phase transformation (LPT) strengthening have been uncovered; notably, the formation of χ nano-laths through microtwinning and superlattice intrinsic stacking fault (SISF) shearing. This study highlights critical insights into the compositional boundaries necessary for optimizing LPT strengthening while avoiding deleterious bulk formation of η/χ phases. These advancements will guide the design of new alloys maximizing high-temperature creep strength for advanced aerospace applications.

Egan, Ashton J. [Friedrich-Alexander University Er↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Risk in an Uncertain Future: The Evolution of Resource Adequacy

As our power grids transition toward a decarbonized energy mix, ensuring reliability and provision of grid services remains paramount. The power system has always been heavily influenced by the weather - extreme temperatures determine the timing of peak demand, winter cold snaps can limit natural gas supply, gas turbine reliability and output are affected by ambient conditions, and hydro output varies seasonally and annually. However, as the grid increasingly relies on variable renewable energy (VRE), like wind and solar, the attention to reliability and weather conditions is increasingly important. The implications of changing reliability are large. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) rolling blackouts from earlier this year impacted millions of people across the state and could be seen from space (Figure 1).

hydraulic turbines↗