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Modifications made to data bases and to four programs in a series of computer programs (Sun Series) which run on the REEDA HP minicomputer system to aid NASA's solar activity predictions used in orbital life time predictions are described. These programs utilize various mathematical smoothing technique and perform statistical and graphical analysis of various solar activity data bases residing on the REEDA System.
The changes in stability and control characteristics encountered by a thrust reversing aircraft during its final approach, landing, and ground roll are described. These changes include a strong pitch-up accompanied by the loss of horizontal tail and aileron control effectiveness. The magnitude of reverser induced changes in ground effect are much larger than corresponding changes in free air. Some unexpected unsteady motions exhibited in wind tunnel by an aircraft model with reversers operating in ground proximity are also described. The cause of this oscillatory behavior was determined to be an unsteady interaction between the wall jets formed by impingement of reverser jets on the ground and the on-coming free stream. Time histories of rolling moments measured by the wind tunnel balance or support system were removed and frequencies were scaled by Strouhal number to full scale. Corrected time series were used to simulate the motion of a fighter aircraft with thrust reversers in ground effect. The simulation predicted large roll angles and nose down attitude at touchdown. Some phenomena of jet attachment to solid surfaces are discussed and areas for future research are recommended.
Loudness is the quality of human perception that is most related to acoustic intensity and energy, however there is no agreed-upon way of integrating loudness over time for the prediction of noise-induced annoyance. Most noise metrics used today for aircraft certification and regulation employ the “Equal-Energy Hypothesis” (EEH) and sum the acoustical energy of one or more noise events over time to create a single metric value that represents the entire exposure. Using the EEH creates a natural tradeoff between the peak energy and the duration of a single noise event, the “hypothesis” being that this tradeoff optimally predicts annoyance in a wide variety of situations. This work proposes a strategy for integrating a loudness-like time series which is flexible in two ways: First, it includes a parameter b ∈ [0,1]. When b = 0, the metric will return the peak of the time series. At b = .5, the metric will behave in accordance with the EEH. At b = 1, the metric will penalize the duration of the sound more than the EEH would. Second, transformations are given so that the strategy can be computed from, or generate quantities in units analogous to, decibels (or phon), physical units (acoustic pressure/power), or perceptually-scaled units (sone). This approach is demonstrated on a dataset of annoyance responses to single events of UAV and road vehicle noise that is fit with an augmented linear regression. Analyses based on this integration of A-weighted level and the output of the “Zwicker” loudness model yield similar results: that subjects may have been slightly more sensitive to the durations of the events than the EEH would suppose, but that the EEH cannot be disproven using these data. The time-integrated metrics outperform both time-averaged and centile-based metrics.
Loudness is the quality of human perception that is most related to acoustic intensity and energy, however there is no agreed-upon way of integrating loudness over time for the prediction of noise-induced annoyance. Most noise metrics used today for aircraft certification and regulation employ the “Equal-Energy Hypothesis” (EEH) and sum the acoustical energy of one or more noise events over time to create a single metric value that represents the entire exposure. Using the EEH creates a natural tradeoff between the peak energy and the duration of a single noise event, the “hypothesis” being that this tradeoff optimally predicts annoyance in a wide variety of situations. This work proposes a strategy for integrating a loudness-like time series which is flexible in two ways: First, it includes a parameter b ∈ [0,1]. When b = 0, the metric will return the peak of the time series. At b = .5, the metric will behave in accordance with the EEH. At b = 1, the metric will penalize the duration of the sound more than the EEH would. Second, transformations are given so that the strategy can be computed from, or generate quantities in units analogous to, decibels (or phon), physical units (acoustic pressure/power), or perceptually-scaled units (sone). This approach is demonstrated on a dataset of annoyance responses to single events of UAV and road vehicle noise that is fit with an augmented linear regression. Analyses based on this integration of A-weighted level and the output of the “Zwicker” loudness model yield similar results: that subjects may have been slightly more sensitive to the durations of the events than the EEH would suppose, but that the EEH cannot be disproven using these data. The time-integrated metrics outperform both time-averaged and centile-based metrics.
We investigate a coronal mass ejection (CME) propagating toward Earth on 29 March 2011. This event is specifically chosen for its predominately northward directed magnetic field, so that the influence from the momentum flux onto Earth can be isolated. We focus our study on understanding how a small Earth-directed segment propagates. Mass images are created from the white-light cameras onboard STEREO which are also converted into mass height-time maps (mass J-maps). The mass tracks on these J-maps correspond to the sheath region between the CME and its associated shockfront as detected by in situ measurements at L1. A time series of mass measurements from the STEREOCOR-2A instrument is made along the Earth propagation direction. Qualitatively, this mass time series shows a remarkable resemblance to the L1 in situ density series. The in situ measurements are used as inputs into a three-dimensional (3-D) magnetospheric space weather simulation from the Community Coordinated Modeling Center. These simulations display a sudden compression of the magnetosphere from the large momentum flux at the leading edge of the CME, and predictions are made for the time derivative of the magnetic field (dBdt) on the ground. The predicted dBdt values were then compared with the observations from specific equatorially located ground stations and showed notable similarity. This study of the momentum of a CME from the Sun down to its influence on magnetic ground stations on Earth is presented as a preliminary proof of concept, such that future attempts may try to use remote sensing to create density and velocity time series as inputs to magnetospheric simulations.
A damped linear oscillator (LRC circuit) predicts a significant amount of the AL index variations when it is driven by the IMF's B(South) component. The model parameters are determined from fitting the AL time series and show a small, apparently nonsystematic variation with the activity level. Following an isolated external disturbance the LRC model's response peaks at 15 min - 0.5 h and decays after 1-2 more hours. The time scales and the correlation between observed AL and the circuit output (60-80 percent) are in good agreement with earlier linear prediction filter results. The results support the modeling of the global magnetospheric behavior with dynamical systems of a few degrees of freedom.
Space-Weather MDI Active Region Patches (SMARPs) and Space-Weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARPs) are two recently developed data products, which have been used for solar flare prediction studies. The present work is an effort to expand the application of SMARP and SHARP summary heliomagnetic parameters to the forecasting of solar flares. A new data product was derived by filtering, rescaling, and merging the SMARP and SHARP summary parameter data series, which were further converted into two-dimensional arrays by selecting time slices corresponding to R-value maxima, where R-value is a measure of the unsigned magnetic flux near polarity inversion lines. The resulting combined MDI-HMI time series currently span the period between April 4, 1996 and December 13, 2022, and can be extended to a more recent date, providing an opportunity to correlate and compare them with other solar activity parameters, such as the daily solar flare index, which is computed as a sum of the product of GOES X-ray flare magnitude and flare duration, for all M- and X-class flares during a day. Preliminary results demonstrate a significant overall correlation, with Pearson coefficients between 0.339 and 0.627. In addition, an oscillating pattern is seen in the daily-averaged sliding-window correlation coefficient. Time-lagged cross-correlation indicates that a leader-follower dynamic exists in some parameters, especially R-value, where they lead the flare index by at least several days, which may have potential for further application in space weather forecasting.
The approach for the method development assumes that, for a thermally loaded structure, the overall strain history is defined by linear elastic analysis. The local stress history at a fatigue critical location is then determined from a one dimensional material behavior model and the local strain and temperature conditions. Three material models are currently being evaluated to assess their ability to predict relevant high temperature cyclic material response characteristics. They are: a time independent classical plasticity and creep representation, a time dependent viscoplastic model capable of predicting combined creep and plasticity effects, and an approximate elastic analysis approach that uses a series of stress-strain curves and a cyclic hardening model to determine reverse plasticity.
Viking lander camera images of the Sun were used to compute atmospheric optical depth at two sites over a period of 1 to 1/3 martian years. The complete set of 1044 optical depth determinations is presented in graphical and tabular form. Error estimates are presented in detail. Optical depths in the morning (AM) are generally larger than in the afternoon (PM). The AM-PM differences are ascribed to condensation of water vapor into atmospheric ice aerosols at night and their evaporation in midday. A smoothed time series of these differences shows several seasonal peaks. These are simulated using a one-dimensional radiative convective model which predicts martial atmospheric temperature profiles. A calculation combining these profiles with water vapor measurements from the Mars Atmospheric Water Detector is used to predict when the diurnal variations of water condensation should occur. The model reproduces a majority of the observed peaks and shows the factors influencing the process. Diurnal variation of condensation is shown to peak when the latitude and season combine to warm the atmosphere to the optimum temperature, cool enough to condense vapor at night and warm enough to cause evaporation at midday.
Viking lander camera images of the Sun were used to compute atmospheric optical depth at two sites over a period of 1 to 1/3 martian years. The complete set of 1044 optical depth determinations is presented in graphical and tabular form. Error estimates are presented in detail. Otpical depths in the morning (AM) are generally larger than in the afternoon (PM). The AM-PM differences are ascribed to condensation of water vapor into atmospheric ice aerosols at night and their evaporation in midday. A smoothed time series of these differences shows several seasonal peaks. These are simulated using a one-dimensional radiative convective model which predicts martial atmospheric temperature profiles. A calculation combinig these profiles with water vapor measurements from the Mars Atmospheric Water Detector is used to predict when the diurnal variations of water condensation should occur. The model reproduces a majority of the observed peaks and shows the factors influencing the process. Diurnal variation of condensation is shown to peak when the latitude and season combine to warm the atmosphere to the optimum temperature, cool enough to condense vapor at night and warm enough to cause evaporation at midday.
The quality of the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) is critically dependent on representative wind profiles in the atmospheric boundary layer. These winds observed from a number of sensor systems around the Dallas-Fort Worth airport were combined into single vertical wind profiles by an algorithm developed and implemented by MIT Lincoln Laboratory. This process, called the AVOSS Winds Analysis System (AWAS), is used by AVOSS for wake corridor predictions. During times when AWAS solutions were available, the quality of the resultant wind profiles and variance was judged from a series of plots combining all sensor observations and AWAS profiles during the period 1200 to 0400 UTC daily. First, input data was evaluated for continuity and consistency from criteria established. Next, the degree of agreement among all wind sensor systems was noted and cases of disagreement identified. Finally, the resultant AWAS solution was compared to the quality-assessed input data. When profiles differed by a specified amount from valid sensor consensus winds, times and altitudes were flagged. Volume one documents the process and quality of input sensor data. Volume two documents the data processing/sorting process and provides the resultant flagged files.
Rapid increase of UAV operation in the next decade in areas of on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement, traffic surveillance and several others pose potential risks to the low altitude airspace above densely populated areas. Safety assessment of airspace demands the need for a novel UAV traffic management (UTM) framework for regulation and tracking of the vehicles. Particularly for low-altitude UAV operations, quality of GPS measurements feeding into the UAV is often compromised by loss of communication link caused by presence of trees or tall buildings in proximity to the UAV flight path. Inaccurate GPS locations may yield to unreliable monitoring and inaccurate prognosis of remaining battery life and other safety metrics which rely on future expected trajectory of the UAV. This work therefore proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology for autonomous UAVs using in-time GPS measurements. Firstly, a typical 4D smooth trajectory generation technique from a series of waypoint locations with associated expected times-of-arrival based on B-spline curves is presented. Initial uncertainty in the vehicle's expected cruise velocity is quantified to compute confidence intervals along the entire flight trajectory using error interval propagation approach. Further, the generated planned trajectory is considered as the prior knowledge which is updated during its flight with incoming GPS measurements in order to estimate its current location and corresponding kinematic profiles. Estimation of position is denoted in dicrete state-space representation such that position at a future time step is derived from position and velocity at current time step and expected velocity at the future time step. A linear Bayesian filtering algorithm is employed to efficiently refine position estimation from noisy GPS measurements and update the confidence intervals. Further, a dynamic re-planning strategy is implemented to incorporate unexpected detour or delay scenarios. Finally, critical challenges related to uncertainty quantification in trajectory prognosis for autonomous vehicles are identified, and potential solutions are discussed at the end of the paper. The entire monitoring framework is demonstrated on real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center.
"Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, droughts, heatwaves, and blizzards, can cause widespread damage, disrupting ecosystems, agricultural production, and economies. The frequency and intensity of these events have been increasing, likely due to climate change, raising concerns and the need for more accurate analysis and predictions. NASA's Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has migrated its long-term historical datasets, including precipitation data from MERRA-2 reanalysis, GLDAS land data assimilation, and IMERG satellite observations, to the cloud. This cloud-stored data enables scientists and researchers to utilize cloud computing for advanced modeling and forecasting of extreme weather events, eliminating the need to download large datasets. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the cloud-based data and services managed by GES DISC; demonstrate methods for accessing and analyzing time series data stored in the cloud; and compare results across various datasets to address critical questions related to extreme precipitation. We will present use cases including: 1. Determining the average total precipitation in California during January and February from 2000 to 2024, and identifying anomalous precipitation in 2021. 2. Calculating the 10, 20, 50, and 100-year return periods for maximum daily rainfall based on 25 years of historical precipitation data (2000-2024) for Maryland.
A control design methodology based on a nonlinear time-series reference model is presented. It is indicated by highly nonlinear simulations that such designs successfully stabilize troublesome aircraft maneuvers undergoing large changes in angle of attack as well as large electric power transients due to line faults. In both applications, the nonlinear controller was significantly better than the corresponding linear adaptive controller. For the electric power network, a flexible AC transmission system with series capacitor power feedback control is studied. A bilinear autoregressive moving average reference model is identified from system data, and the feedback control is manipulated according to a desired reference state. The control is optimized according to a predictive one-step quadratic performance index. A similar algorithm is derived for control of rapid changes in aircraft angle of attack over a normally unstable flight regime. In the latter case, however, a generalization of a bilinear time-series model reference includes quadratic and cubic terms in angle of attack.
Some of the factors limiting the prediction of foF2 are investigated using median and hourly foF2 values recorded at stations in the Australian ionosonde network. Different time and spatial scales together with different levels of solar and geomagnetic activity are considered. All data used in the analysis are displayed in a series of scatter diagrams which provide an overall view of the accuracy limits for foF2 predictions.
Interest in solar activity has grown in the past two decades for many reasons. Most importantly for flight dynamics, solar activity changes the atmospheric density, which has important implications for spacecraft trajectory and lifetime prediction. Building upon the previously developed Rayleigh-Benard nonlinear dynamic solar model, which exhibits many dynamic behaviors observed in the Sun, this work introduces new chaotic solar forecasting techniques. Our attempt to use recently developed nonlinear chaotic techniques to model and forecast solar activity has uncovered highly entangled dynamics. Numerical techniques for decoupling additive and multiplicative white noise from deterministic dynamics and examines falloff of the power spectra at high frequencies as a possible means of distinguishing deterministic chaos from noise than spectrally white or colored are presented. The power spectral techniques presented are less cumbersome than current methods for identifying deterministic chaos, which require more computationally intensive calculations, such as those involving Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimension.
This report summarizes the work done to date in assessing the trajectory fidelity and estimated time of arrival (ETA) prediction capability of the NASA Ames Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS) software. The CTAS software suite is a series of computer programs designed to aid air traffic controllers in their tasks of safely scheduling the landing sequence of approaching aircraft. in particular, this report concerns the accuracy of the available measurements (e.g., position, altitude, etc.) that are input to the software, as well as the accuracy of the final data that is made available to the air traffic controllers.
Kenya is the third largest tea exporter in the world, producing 10% of the world's black tea. Sixty percent of this production occurs largely by small scale tea holders, with an average farm size of 1.04 acres, and an annual net income of $1,075. According to a recent evaluation, a typical frost event in the tea growing region causes about $200 dollars in losses which can be catastrophic for a small holder farm. A 72-hour frost forecast would provide these small-scale tea farmers with enough notice to reduce losses by approximately 80 USD annually. With this knowledge, SERVIR, a joint NASA-USAID initiative that brings Earth observations for improved decision making in developing countries, sought to design a frost monitoring and forecasting service that would provide farmers with enough lead time to react to and protect against a forecasted frost occurrence on their farm. SERVIR Eastern and Southern Africa, through its implementing partner, the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD), designed a service that included multiple stakeholder engagement events whereby stakeholders from the tea industry value chain were invited to share their experiences so that the exact needs and flow of information could be identified. This unique event allowed enabled the design of a service that fit the specifications of the stakeholders. The monitoring service component uses the MODIS Land Surface Temperature product to identify frost occurrences in near-real time. The prediction component, currently under testing, uses the 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m wind speed from a series of high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model runs over eastern Kenya as inputs into a frost prediction algorithm. Accuracy and sensitivity of the algorithm is being assessed with observations collected from the farmers using a smart phone app developed specifically to report frost occurrences, and from data shared through our partner network developed at the stakeholder engagement meeting. This presentation will illustrate the efficacy of our frost forecasting algorithm, and a way forward for incorporating these forecasts in a meaningful way to the key decision makers - the small-scale farmers of East Africa.