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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Actinide signatures in low electron fraction kilonova ejecta

ABSTRACT Neutron star (NS) mergers are known to produce heavy elements through rapid neutron capture (r-process) nucleosynthesis. Actinides are expected to be created solely by the r-process in the most neutron-rich environments. Confirming if NS mergers provide the requisite conditions for actinide creation is therefore central to determining their origin in the Universe. Actinide signatures in kilonova (KN) spectra may yield an answer, provided adequate models are available in order to interpret observational data. In this study, we investigate actinide signatures in neutron-rich merger ejecta. We use three ejecta models with different compositions and radioactive power, generated by nucleosynthesis calculations using the same initial electron fraction ($Y_e = 0.15$) but with different nuclear physics inputs and thermodynamic expansion history. These are evolved from 10 to 100 d after merger using the sumo non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) radiative transfer code. We highlight how uncertainties in nuclear properties, as well as choices in thermodynamic trajectory, may yield entirely different outputs for equal values of $Y_e$. We consider an actinide-free model and two actinide-rich models, and find that the emergent spectra and light-curve evolution are significantly different depending on the amount of actinides present, and the overall decay properties of the models. We also present potential key actinide spectral signatures, of which doubly ionized $_{89}$Ac and $_{90}$Th may be particularly interesting as spectral indicators of actinide presence in KN ejecta.

Pognan, Quentin (ORCID:0000000152550782)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling of convective cells, turbulence, and transport induced by a radio-frequency antenna in the tokamak boundary plasma

The edge turbulence model Hermes (Dudson et al 2017 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 59 05401) is set up for plasma boundary simulations with an radiofrequency (RF) antenna, using parameters characteristic of a tokamak edge. Cartesian slab geometry is used with thin plate limiters representing the ion cyclotron range of frequency (ICRF) antenna side-wall limiters. Ad-hoc DC electric biasing of the limiters, motivated by calculations with VSim (Nieter et al 2004 J. Comput. Phys. 196 448), represents an induced RF sheath rectified potential in the plasma turbulence model. Flux-driven turbulence simulations demonstrate a realistic distribution of plasma profiles and fluctuations. There is a clear effect of the antenna sheath voltage leading to formation of convective cells; bias-induced convective transport flattens the scrape-off layer density profile and fluctuations penetrate into the shadow region of the limiters as the bias voltage increases. Turbulent transport for impurity ions is inferred by following ion trajectories in the simulated plasma turbulence fields, showing Bohm-like effective diffusion rates. All in all, the model elucidates the key physical phenomena governing the effects of ICRF-induced antenna biasing on the tokamak boundary plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Implications of climate change impacts for emission and land use scenario development

Scenarios of future emissions and land use produced by integrated assessment models have traditionally been developed without accounting for how climate change impacts could affect the emissions and land use trajectories themselves. This omission risks skewing our assessments of the plausible range of future emission pathways and associated Earth system changes. Beyond the salience for emission scenario development, a better integrated representation of human and Earth system changes and feedbacks would enable better anticipation of the implications of alternative socio-economic development pathways. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to investigate whether endogenizing several impacts when generating its baseline emission scenario is warranted. We do so by comparing the emissions and land use change that result from the baseline scenario with and without impacts, where impacts are implemented as exogenous changes to water availability, crop and labor productivity, and energy demand and supply. Our results indicate that the effect on global emissions leads to less than 0.1 °C increase in warming by 2100 and therefore do not support endogenizing impacts. This conclusion is conditional on our modeling framework and the specific impact channels represented but is consistent with other studies that have addressed the magnitude of feedbacks by implementing a two-way coupling. However, we do find regional impacts indicating that local economies and well-being measures may be affected significantly.

climate impacts↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recurrent convolutional neural networks for modeling nonadiabatic dynamics of quantum-classical systems

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have recently been extensively applied to model the time evolution in fluid dynamics, weather predictions, and even chaotic systems due to their ability to capture temporal dependencies and sequential patterns in data. Here we present an RNN model based on convolutional neural networks for modeling the nonlinear nonadiabatic dynamics of hybrid quantum-classical systems. The dynamical evolution of the hybrid systems is governed by equations of motion for classical degrees of freedom and von Neumann equation for electrons. The Physics-Aware Recurrent Convolution (PARC) neural network structure incorporates a differentiator-integrator architecture that inductively models the spatiotemporal dynamics of generic physical systems. Here, we apply our RNN approach to learn the space-time evolution of a one-dimensional semiclassical Holstein model after an interaction quench. For shallow quenches (small changes in electron-lattice coupling), the deterministic dynamics can be accurately captured using a single-CNN-based recurrent network. In contrast, deep quenches induce chaotic evolution, making long-term trajectory prediction significantly more challenging. Nonetheless, we demonstrate that the PARC-CNN architecture can effectively learn the statistical climate of the Holstein model under deep-quench conditions.

Holstein model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using intrahost single nucleotide variant data to predict SARS-CoV-2 detection cycle threshold values

Over the last four years, each successive wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has been caused by variants with mutations that improve the transmissibility of the virus. Despite this, we still lack tools for predicting clinically important features of the virus. In this study, we show that it is possible to predict the PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from clinical detection assays using sequence data. Ct values often correspond with patient viral load and the epidemiological trajectory of the pandemic. Using a collection of 36,335 high quality genomes, we built models from SARS-CoV-2 intrahost single nucleotide variant (iSNV) data, computing XGBoost models from the frequencies of A, T, G, C, insertions, and deletions at each position relative to the Wuhan-Hu-1 reference genome. Our best model had an R 2 of 0.604 [0.593–0.616, 95% confidence interval] and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.247 [5.156–5.337], demonstrating modest predictive power. Overall, we show that the results are stable relative to an external holdout set of genomes selected from SRA and are robust to patient status and the detection instruments that were used. This study highlights the importance of developing modeling strategies that can be applied to publicly available genome sequence data for use in disease prevention and control.

COVID19↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the feasibility of tidal energy extraction at non-operational gas platforms and effects of sedimentation and sea ice in Cook Inlet (Abstract)

Littoral Power Systems (LPS) has been granted a FERC preliminary permit for the Upper Cook Inlet Tidal Energy Project in an area that includes existing non-producing natural gas platforms. LPS is working to understand the feasibility of a 2 MW tidal energy project and is considering multiple technologies, the viability of using the platforms to support deployment and operation of the technologies, as well as the environmental conditions that will interact with tidal energy devices. The proposed TEAMER work will conduct a modeling study to understand 1) current velocity and turbulence; 2) the distribution of sea ice trajectories around the platform; and 3) the likelihood of seabed erosion and deposition through an analysis of shear stress in the seabed near the platforms. The results of this work will contribute to determining the feasibility of the site for tidal energy development.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Policy support and technology development trajectory for renewable natural gas in the U.S.

Renewable natural gas (RNG) is a clean alternative to fossil natural gas, which can be used as transportation fuel, among other applications. This study projects the development trajectory of RNG and evaluates its impacts on the future U.S. transportation market using a hybrid computable general equilibrium model. This analysis considers various factors and uncertainties affecting RNG production, such as technology development, market conditions, competition with other advanced biofuels, and national and state policies. In 2050, RNG production will grow to 2.7 billion gallons (10 billion liters), mostly from swine manure, under current policy provisions. This will lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 58.56 million metric tonne of CO 2e in 2050. Analysis of different technology cases finds RNG from animal manure to be predominant, while RNG from corn stover and cellulosic ethanol are less competitive. Furthermore, a high mandatory target of 1 billion gallons will drive RNG production higher by 8–18 %, while an extended 2 nd -generation biofuel production tax credit will mostly increase cellulosic ethanol production. The model also finds RNG production being affected by uncertainties in market conditions, such as GDP growth, fossil fuel prices, and oil and gas supply.

Biomethane↗
DOE OSTI2025

Along-Trajectory Acoustic Signal Variations Observed During the Hypersonic Re-Entry of the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule

The re-entry of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) sample return capsule (SRC) on 24 September 2023 presented a rare opportunity to study atmospheric entry dynamics through a dense network of ground-based infrasound sensors. As the first interplanetary capsule to re-enter over the United States since Stardust in 2006, this event allowed for unprecedented observations of infrasound signals generated during hypersonic descent. We deployed 39 single-sensor stations across Nevada and Utah, strategically distributed to capture signals from distinct trajectory points. Infrasound data were analyzed to examine how signal amplitude and period vary with altitude and propagation path for a nonablating hypersonic object with well-defined physical and aerodynamic properties. Raytracing simulations incorporated atmospheric specifications from the ground-2-space model to estimate source altitudes for observed signals. Results confirmed ballistic arrivals at all stations, with source altitudes ranging from 44 to 62 km along the trajectory. Signal period and amplitude exhibited strong dependence on source altitude, with higher altitudes corresponding to lower amplitudes, longer periods, and reduced high-frequency content. Regression analysis demonstrated strong correlations between signal characteristics and both altitude and propagation geometry. Our results suggest, when attenuation is considered, the amplitude is primarily determined by the source, with the propagation path playing a secondary role over the distances examined. These findings emphasize the utility of controlled SRC re-entries for advancing our understanding of natural meteoroid dynamics, refining atmospheric entry models, and improving methodologies for planetary defense. The OSIRIS-REx SRC campaign represents the most comprehensive infrasound study of a hypersonic re-entry to date, showcasing the potential of coordinated geophysical observational networks for high-energy atmospheric phenomena, including space debris re-entries.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-time tracking and analysis of gas bubble dynamics in laser powder bed fusion using in-situ X-ray characterization and machine learning

Porosity defects remain a significant challenge in the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process, adversely affecting the mechanical properties and reliability of additively manufactured components. Here, this study investigates the real-time formation and trajectory of gas bubbles during LPBF of Al6061 alloy using advanced in-situ X-ray characterization and machine learning. The unsupervised Gaussian mixture model and particle tracking algorithm developed are able to precisely track and quantify the properties of gas bubbles and keyhole pores. Our analysis identified five distinct types of gas bubble formation and movement patterns, emphasizing the diverse origins and behaviors of these defects. It enables precise quantification of trajectories, velocities, and morphological changes of gas bubbles, offering a granular view of the subsurface dynamics within the melt pool. Additionally, we explored keyhole-induced pore dynamics, revealing the critical role of keyhole oscillation and collapse for the formation of both large and small gas pores. It defines four different regions of gas bubble movement within the melt pool, providing a clearer understanding of how local fluid dynamics affect pore behavior. The results underscore the importance of integrating in-situ experimental observation and automated machine learning to develop a more robust predictive model for defect formation in LPBF.

In-situ X-ray imaging↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutron scattering and neural-network quantum molecular dynamics investigation of the vibrations of ammonia along the solid-to-liquid transition

Abstract Vibrational spectroscopy allows us to understand complex physical and chemical interactions of molecular crystals and liquids such as ammonia, which has recently emerged as a strong hydrogen fuel candidate to support a sustainable society. We report inelastic neutron scattering measurement of vibrational properties of ammonia along the solid-to-liquid phase transition with high enough resolution for direct comparisons to ab-initio simulations. Theoretical analysis reveals the essential role of nuclear quantum effects (NQEs) for correctly describing the intermolecular spectrum as well as high energy intramolecular N-H stretching modes. This is achieved by training neural network models using ab-initio path-integral molecular dynamics (PIMD) simulations, thereby encompassing large spatiotemporal trajectories required to resolve low energy dynamics while retaining NQEs. Our results not only establish the role of NQEs in ammonia but also provide general computational frameworks to study complex molecular systems with NQEs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Debris-induced consequences on turbulence and vorticity in solar photovoltaic module-generated array wakes

Particle-laden flows in solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are inevitable, where wind-swept debris in open environments are carried by high winds and turbulence, coating panel surfaces or damaging structures. Particle deposition, or soiling, is a well-known issue for large-scale plants which rely on uninhibited solar rays for optimal production. But understanding the mechanisms leading to soiling requires a physical and fluid dynamics-centered focus, since turbulence dominates PV panel wakes and is also known to alter particle concentration and trajectories. This study presents an experimental campaign toward consequences of particle-laden flow between two model PV panels using time-resolved particle image velocimetry. The model array was subjected to varied particle volume fractions, including a tracer particle case and a water droplet case. Characterization of mean velocity, turbulence statistics, and mean kinetic energy within the single phase and, separately, particle phase flows showed modified features due to particle inertia. Images captured at a frequency of 1 kHz in the near wake of the upstream panel allow for a first experimental look at vorticity and convective velocity of vortex structures for single-phase and particle-phase flows which are crucial to debris transport and soiling in PV environments.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geometry of Non-Diffusive Tracer Transport in Gridded Atmospheric Models

A first-order linear and numerically non-diffusive Eulerian transport algorithm, minVAR, was recently developed for preservation of correlations between interrelated tracers during advective transport. The present study extends this work by: (1) providing further investigation of several interesting geometric constructions found in contours of constant minVAR, short for minimum variance, through extension to three coordinate dimensions. These contours capture point-by-point representations of thousands of individual atmospheric aerosol and/or cloud particles as they evolve and are rendered on Eulerian grids at a level of sub-grid resolution limited only by numerical precision; and (2) exploration of geometric similarities between the Arakawa C-grid, used to obtain interpolated values of the wind field at grid scale and minVAR. In particular, we consider interpolation of the u and v horizontal components of wind velocity from grid to sub-grid scales. The last results are motivated by recent applications of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model applied in the coastal Houston region, where the recent TRacking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) field campaign was organized. A unique and fully consistent mapping is obtained between particles moving along meteorological wind trajectories and the non-diffusive, non-dispersive representation of such trajectories on an Eulerian grid.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Basic Physical Processes Involving Dust in Fusion Plasmas

This report presents the main outcomes of our research focused on understanding the behavior and effects of dust particles in fusion plasmas, particularly in the edge regions of tokamaks and stellarators. We conducted computer modeling studies of burst injections of carbon and tungsten dust particles in DIII-D like divertor plasmas. The studies investigated effects of transient influx of the low- and high-Z material plasma contaminants in form of dust on the edge plasma dynamics in a modern mid-size tokamak. We also performed theoretical and computational studies of the forces acting on non-spherical dust grains in magnetized and nonmagnetized plasmas. In addition, we cooperated with General Atomics slag management group on development of DIII-D dust injection experiments to measure trajectories of dust grains in the divertor plasma and compare them with DUSTT code predictions for validation of the dust modeling capabilities. We collaborated with JET experimentalists on evaluation of radiative losses induced by injection of mixed neon-deuterium ice pellets for disruption and run-away electron generation mitigation during thermal and current quench phases. We also cooperated with experimentalists at LHD fusion device (Japan) on modeling support of experiments on injection of boron granules in fusion plasma discharges to assess their dynamics and effectiveness for in situ dynamic wall conditioning.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Marine Boundary Layer Clouds Over the Northeast Pacific During the CSET Campaign in E3SM Version 2

It is still challenging to reproduce marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds well in large-scale models despite their importance to the Earth's radiation budget and hydrological cycle. This study evaluates representation of the MBL and clouds in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2. This study compares the E3SM simulation results with remote sensing and reanalysis data during the Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET) field campaign to better understand the stratocumulus-to-cumulus cloud transition (SCT) over the northeast Pacific. E3SM results are extracted along the CSET Lagrangian trajectories. The comparison shows that the E3SM simulation applying horizontal wind nudging performs well in reproducing thermodynamic variables of the MBL and evolution trends of cloud variables along the trajectories. However, substantial overestimations of aerosol and cloud drop number (N d ) are observed, which is explained as an issue with version 2 of the model. Cloud fraction (CF) does decrease from the Californian coast to Hawaii in the E3SM simulation, but most CF values indicate either an overcast or almost clear sky, which differs from satellite and reanalysis data. The effect of N d overestimation on CF evolution is assessed via prescribed-N d simulations. Those simulations with N d modifications show negligible CF changes. A comparison of estimated inversion strength (EIS) also shows that the simulated EIS values are similar to those of reanalysis data. Our study suggests that cloud macrophysics and boundary layer processes are more important in improving the simulation to capture the SCT than refining the model's thermodynamics or cloud microphysics.

Choi, Kyoung Ock [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA↗
DOE OSTI2025

Similarity Metric for Data Optimization and Efficient Training of Reactive Machine Learning Force Fields for Hydrocarbon Radiolysis

Radiolysis is a common approach to sterilize polymers, chemically modify them for upcycling, and accelerate their decomposition for recycling purposes. Reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide a powerful tool to generate atomic-level trajectories of the reactive processes and quantify radiolytic chemical degradation pathways. For this, machine learning (ML) surrogate models for reactive force fields with quantum mechanical accuracy are now widely used, which require ML training data sets that can provide information on atomic environments for target chemical systems. However, radiolysis chemistry can be highly complex and diverse, which poses significant challenges for generating training data to parametrize ML models. In this regard, we developed a method for optimizing the training data set using a cosine similarity metric to help guide training set selection for radiolysis of polyethylene, a model hydrocarbon polymer, as well as to enhance the transferability of our reactive ML force field (MLFF) to a variety of molecular and polymeric systems. Our approach performs atom-by-atom comparisons between local atomic environments to pinpoint important data points associated with rare and localized events, such as radiolysis damage within structures. We apply this approach to train the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) MLFF model, which expresses the atomic interaction potentials in terms of linear combinations of many-body Chebyshev polynomials. We first show that our method can reduce our training set size by ∼70% while improving overall accuracy compared to more standard MD model fitting approaches. We then validate our optimum model against diverse hydrocarbon simulation data, including simple alkanes and systems with unsaturated carbon bonds, over a wide range of thermodynamic conditions. Finally, we use our ChIMES model to perform MD simulations of radiolytic damage with large-scale systems that help avoid system size effects. Overall, our approach yields an MD force field that retains most of the accuracy of the underlying quantum method while yielding many orders of improvement in computational efficiency. In conclusion, our efforts will have impact on future hydrocarbon polymer radiolysis studies, where the chemical details of the polymer–radiation interactions can have a strong effect on the resulting products observed in experiments.

Hydrocarbons↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quarterly Soil Core and Root Analyses from the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) Site, Ashland, Missouri, 2017-2023

This dataset contains quarterly soil core measurements from the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site located at the University of Missouri’s Thomas H. Baskett Wildlife Research and Education Area near Ashland, Missouri. These data will be used to parameterize an ensemble of MOFLUX-optimized soil carbon-nitrogen models, used to simulate carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling responses to future hydroclimatic scenarios and the trajectory of soil C stocks with concomitant forest decline. Beginning in 2017, eight soil cores were collected approximately quarterly near plot 1 of the southeast transect, near the automated soil respiration flux chambers, from 0–15 cm depth. Data are currently available through 2023 (2017-06-14 to 2023-11-13); additional observations will be appended to this dataset as they become available. Cores were analyzed for gravimetric moisture content, pH, total carbon and nitrogen, texture, microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen, and extractable dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen. This dataset contains one data file in comma separate (*.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: one data dictionary and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (*.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multitask graph neural networks for elastoplastic response prediction in dual-phase polycrystals

Microstructure-sensitive prediction of elastoplastic response remains a recurring bottleneck in multiscale damage and fatigue modeling, where large ensembles of statistically distinct polycrystals are required to quantify variability and extreme-value behavior. In this work, we develop a multitask graph neural network (GNN) surrogate that maps dual-phase ferrite–martensite polycrystal microstructures to Statistical Volume Element (SVE)-level elastoplastic Quantities of Interest (QoIs). Each SVE is represented as a grain-adjacency graph, with node features encoding phase, geometry, and crystallographic orientation, and edge features encoding relative misorientation. A message-passing graph convolution generates node embeddings, which are pooled into a graph representation and passed to a multitask regression head that jointly predicts 10 scalar QoIs and vector-valued stress–strain responses in orthogonal loading directions across multiple martensite volume fractions and SVE sizes. Results show high accuracy for scalar QoIs and strong agreement for full stress–strain trajectories, with population envelopes reproducing both median behavior and finite-SVE variability across compositions and partition scales. A unified model trained on pooled volume-fraction data preserves most within-regime accuracy relative to regime-specific models while also capturing the broader cross-regime variation reflected in the pooled test set. Distributional comparisons further demonstrate that the surrogate preserves heterogeneity under SVE partitioning, enabling statistically consistent block-wise random-field construction for mesoscale analyses. Overall, the proposed grain-graph surrogate provides a practical pathway to accelerate ensemble-based studies of SVE-level constitutive variability in dual-phase polycrystals.

Crystal plasticity↗
DOE OSTI2026

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗