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At least 145 records · Page 8

Unprecedented Beaufort Sea ice loss in late summer 2021 and its relationship to an extended period of unusually stormy weather

Previous case studies have linked cyclone-induced atmospheric forcing and/or upper-ocean processes to notable Arctic sea ice loss events in the summers of 2012 and 2016. This study examines a more recent and noteworthy case in late summer 2021 in which substantial sea ice loss followed a period of surface meteorological extremes in the Beaufort Sea region of the Arctic. We focus on the period from mid-August to mid-September 2021 that coincided with the Office of Naval Research THINICE Pilot Field Campaign and investigate stormy and windy conditions with respect to air-sea processes impacting sea ice conditions. We find that during the stormy first half of the campaign, cyclone-induced energy fluxes into the marginal ice zone and surrounding waters preconditioned the ice pack for more rapid melt later in the campaign. The second half of the campaign, in contrast, was marked by non-cyclone wind events that enhanced turbulent (namely sensible) heat fluxes into the ice and upper ocean that increased melt. Moreover, this latter period had enhanced advection of the Beaufort Sea ice pack into above-freezing waters, increasing bottom melt to >1 cm d −1 over the remainder of the campaign. While findings are shown to vary by surface type and at relatively small (i.e. ice-floe) scales, insights are offered on the roles of late summer coupled processes on rapid ice loss events in today’s Arctic environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The role of the turbulence driving mode for the initial mass function

Turbulence is a critical ingredient for star formation, yet its role for the initial mass function (IMF) is not fully understood. Here we perform magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) simulations of star cluster formation including gravity, turbulence, magnetic fields, stellar heating, and outflow feedback to study the influence of the mode of turbulence driving on IMF. We find that simulations that employ purely compressive turbulence driving (COMP) produce a higher fraction of low-mass stars as compared to simulations that use purely solenoidal driving (SOL). The characteristic (median) mass of the sink particle (protostellar) distribution for COMP is shifted to lower masses by a factor of ∼1.5 compared to SOL. Our simulation IMFs capture the important features of the observed IMF form. We find that turbulence-regulated theories of the IMF match our simulation IMFs reasonably well in the high-mass and low-mass range, but underestimate the number of very low-mass stars, which form towards the later stages of our simulations and stop accreting due to dynamical interactions. Our simulations show that for both COMP and SOL, the multiplicity fraction is an increasing function of the primary mass, although the multiplicity fraction in COMP is higher than that of SOL for any primary mass range. We find that binary mass ratio distribution is independent of the turbulence driving mode. The average specific angular momentum of the sink particles in SOL is a factor of 2 higher than that for COMP. Overall, we conclude that the turbulence driving mode plays a significant role in shaping the IMF.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

O 2 based resonantly ionized photoemission thermometry analysis of supersonic flows

Characterization of the thermal gradients within supersonic and hypersonic flows is essential for understanding transition, turbulence, and aerodynamic heating. Developments in novel, impactful non-intrusive techniques are key for enabling flow characterizations of sufficient detail that provide experimental validation datasets for computational simulations. In this work, Resonantly Ionized Photoemission Thermometry (RIPT) signals are directly imaged using an ICCD camera to realize the techniques 1D measurement capability for the first time. The direct imaging scheme presented for oxygen-based RIPT (O 2 RIPT) uses the previously established calibration data to direct excite various resonant rotational peaks within the S-branch of the C 3 Π, ( v = 2) ← X 3 Σ( v ′ = 0) absorption band of O 2 . The efficient ionization of O 2 liberates electrons that induce electron avalanche ionization of local N 2 molecules generating N 2 + , which primarily deexcites via photoemissions of the first negative band of N 2 + ( B 2 Σ <#comment/> u + − <#comment/> X 2 Σ <#comment/> g + ) . When sufficient lasing energy is used, the ionization region and subsequent photoemission signal is achieved along a 1D line thus, if directly imaged can allow for gas temperature assignments along said line; demonstrated here of up to five centimeters in length. The temperature gradients present within the ensuing shock train of a supersonic under expanded free jet serves as a basis of characterization for this new RIPT imaging scheme. The O 2 RIPT results are extensively compared and validated against well-known and established techniques (i.e., CARS and CFD). The direct imaging capability fully realizes the technique’s fundamental potential and is expected to be the standard of implementation going forward. The direct imaging capability can play instrumental roles in future scientific studies that rely upon acute characterization of thermal gradients within a medium that cannot be easily resolved by a point. Furthermore, the removal of the spectrometer greatly reduces the cost, complexity, and optical alignment associated with prior RIPT measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Partnership Center for High-fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation

The University of Colorado Boulder contributed to the DOE Partnership Center for High‑fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (award DE‑SC0018271) by advancing gyrokinetic modeling of core–edge plasma interactions in tokamaks. Using the GEM and XGC codes, the project investigated turbulence spreading from the plasma edge to the core, finding that while edge‑driven trapped electron mode turbulence enhances core ion heat flux in DIII‑D L‑mode plasmas, it does not fully explain experimentally observed transport shortfalls, indicating a need for flux‑driven models. The team also demonstrated that edge micro‑instabilities are highly sensitive to small variations in magnetic equilibrium, particularly near the pedestal and edge, highlighting the importance of accurately characterizing equilibrium uncertainties. Significant progress was made in spatially coupling the core GEM and edge XGC simulations, with successful validation against standalone XGC results in realistic tokamak geometries, laying the groundwork for future extensions to kinetic electrons and electromagnetic effects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Compact Counter Flow Fluidized Bed Heat Exchanger (Final Report)

Generation 3 concentrating solar power systems which utilize solid granular media as the heat transfer and storage media hold promise in reducing the levelized cost of electricity relative to generation 2 systems which utilize molten salt. The particles can be heated to temperatures exceeding 800 °C which enables the use of high efficiency supercritical CO 2 Brayton power cycles. A key challenge associate with the use of solid media is its low bulk thermal conductivity which limits the ability to transfer heat from the particles to a working fluid, such as supercritical CO 2 . Tradition shell and tube and shell and plate heat exchangers feature gravity driven particle flow which limits the maximum particle side heat transfer coefficient in these systems to approximately 400 W/m 2 K. A fluidized bed heat exchanger does not rely solely on gravity for particle flow. Instead, enhanced mixing and horizontal conveyance is achieved through fluidization induced through air injection at the bottom of a bed of particles. A tube bundle within the bed conveys the supercritical CO 2 which is heated via the turbulent particle motion at the tube wall.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

SZ–X-Ray Surface Brightness Fluctuations in the SPT-XMM Clusters

The hot plasma in galaxy clusters, the intracluster medium, is expected to be shaped by subsonic turbulent motions, which are key for heating, cooling, and transport mechanisms. The turbulent motions contribute to the nonthermal pressure, which, if not accounted for, consequently imparts a hydrostatic mass bias. Accessing information about turbulent motions is thus of major astrophysical and cosmological interest. Characteristics of turbulent motions can be indirectly accessed through surface brightness fluctuations. This study expands on our pilot investigations of surface brightness fluctuations in the Sunyaev–Zel’dovich and in X-ray data by examining, for the first time, a large sample of 60 clusters using both SPT-SZ and XMM-Newton data and spans the redshift range 0.2 < z < 1.5, thus constraining the respective pressure and density fluctuations within 0.6 R $_{500}$. We deem density fluctuations to be of sufficient quality for 32 clusters, finding mild correlations between the peak of the amplitude spectra of density fluctuations and various dynamical parameters. We infer turbulent velocities from density fluctuations with an average Mach number $\mathcal{M}$ 3D = 0.52 ± 0.14, in agreement with numerical simulations. For clusters with inferred turbulent Mach numbers from fluctuations in both pressure, $\mathcal{M}$ P , and density, $\mathcal{M}$ ρ , we find broad agreement between $\mathcal{M}$ P and $\mathcal{M}$ ρ . Our results suggest either a bimodal or a skewed unimodal Mach number distribution, with the majority of clusters being turbulence-dominated (subsonic) while the remainder are shock-dominated (supersonic).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Alcator C-Mod: Research in support of ITER and steps beyond

This paper presents an overview of recent highlights from research on Alcator C-Mod. Significant progress has been made across all research areas over the last two years, with particular emphasis on divertor physics and power handling, plasma-material-interaction studies, ELM-suppressed pedestal dynamics, core transport and turbulence, and RF heating and current drive utilizing Ion Cyclotron and Lower Hybrid tools. Specific results of particular relevance to ITER include: inner wall SOL transport studies that have led, together with results from other experiments, to the change of the detailed shape of the inner wall in ITER; runaway electron studies showing that the critical electric field required for runaway generation is much higher than predicted from collisional theory; core tungsten impurity transport studies reveal that tungsten accumulation is naturally avoided in typical C-Mod conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Challenging Common Assumptions of Thick-Wall Chamber Dynamics in Inertial Fusion Systems using MOOSE

As an increasing number of companies look toward commercial Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) designs, there is a pressing need to understand the physics of thick-wall chamber gas dynamics. The thick liquid wall approach implements a renewable wall to mitigate the fusion target emissions, thereby reducing the radiation damage rate and significantly extending the lifetime of chamber structures, leading to increased plant availability and reduced waste streams in comparison to dry wall chamber designs. It is necessary, however, to assess the critical performance and safety aspects of these systems. For example, it is crucial to predict (1) where the mass ablated from the liquid walls will vent, which determines the placement of condensing surfaces; (2) debris propagation up the beam lines, which provides essential information for design and protection requirements; (3) peak pressures and impulse on chamber walls, which affect chamber structural design; and (4) momentum transfer to the liquid jets, which constrains the shape and positioning of the jets. In turn, the chamber design and its liquid walls affect shielding requirements, material activation, and tritium fuel cycle. Currently available simulation tools, however, are unable to accurately capture key thick-wall chamber dynamics. Significant assumptions are often made to simplify the system and reduce computational cost and modeling capability needs, but the impact of these assumptions on simulation predictions has not been evaluated. For example, no three-dimensional simulations can be found in the open literature to evaluate gas venting and momentum transfer to the jets with simulations using two-dimensional domains to represent complex three-dimensional geometries. Moreover, limited studies have been dedicated to jet breakup due to both turbulence and neutron heating, and no studies have been found that evaluate how jet breakup can impact shock-jet interaction. Furthermore, effects of radiative heat transfer have rarely been included for the hydrodynamic phase of shock propagation, and integration of proper equations of state in shock dynamics codes has been mostly exploratory. In this study, we use the flexible, high-fidelity Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) to model these complex phenomena and inform design and safety studies. Capabilities to model thick-wall chamber gas dynamics are being developed, and the impact of the assumptions listed above (i.e., two-dimensional vs three-dimensional, absence of jet breakout, no radiative heat transfer, and ideal gas behavior) are being quantified.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Challenging Common Assumptions of Thick-Wall Chamber Dynamics in Inertial Fusion Systems Using MOOSE-based Multiphysics Simulations

As an increasing number of companies look toward commercial Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) designs, there is a pressing need to understand the physics of thick-wall chamber gas dynamics. The thick liquid wall approach implements a renewable wall to mitigate the fusion target emissions, thereby reducing the radiation damage rate and significantly extending the lifetime of chamber structures, leading to increased plant availability and reduced waste streams in comparison to dry wall chamber designs. It is necessary, however, to assess the critical performance and safety aspects of these systems. For example, it is crucial to predict (1) where the mass ablated from the liquid walls will vent, which determines the placement of condensing surfaces; (2) debris propagation up the beam lines, which provides essential information for design and protection requirements; (3) peak pressures and impulse on chamber walls, which affect chamber structural design; and (4) momentum transfer to the liquid jets, which constrains the shape and positioning of the jets. In turn, the chamber design and its liquid walls affect shielding requirements, material activation, and tritium fuel cycle. Currently available simulation tools, however, are unable to accurately capture key thick-wall chamber dynamics. Significant assumptions are often made to simplify the system and reduce computational cost and modeling capability needs, but the impact of these assumptions on simulation predictions has not been evaluated. For example, no three-dimensional simulations can be found in the open literature to evaluate gas venting and momentum transfer to the jets with simulations using two-dimensional domains to represent complex three-dimensional geometries. Moreover, limited studies have been dedicated to jet breakup due to both turbulence and neutron heating, and no studies have been found that evaluate how jet breakup can impact shock-jet interaction. Furthermore, effects of radiative heat transfer have rarely been included for the hydrodynamic phase of shock propagation, and integration of proper equations of state in shock dynamics codes has been mostly exploratory. In this study, we use the flexible, high-fidelity Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) to model these complex phenomena and inform design and safety studies. Capabilities to model thick-wall chamber gas dynamics are being developed, and the impact of the assumptions listed above (i.e., two-dimensional vs three-dimensional, absence of jet breakout, no radiative heat transfer, and ideal gas behavior) are being quantified.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

On the role of ion temperature gradient turbulence in driving ion thermal transport in neutral beam injection-heated L-mode plasmas in a superconducting tokamak

In this paper, we report a detailed experimental study of the role of ion-temperature-gradient driven turbulence in driving ion thermal transport in neutral beam injection (NBI)-heated L-mode plasmas in Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) (Wan et al 2000 Nucl. Fusion 40 1057) coupled with linear and nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations. Significant ion-scale turbulence k ⟂ < cm −1 (k ⟂ < 1.5, where k ⟂ where is the perpendicular wavenumber and ρ s is the ion gyroradius calculated using local electron temperature T e ), measured with a microwave reflectometer, is observed in the plasma core at for r/a ≈ 0.265 and 0.5 (where r is half the diameter of the closed flux surface at a given radial position, and a is half the diameter of the last closed flux surface). Local linear stability analysis with experimental equilibrium quantities at these two radial locations using the GS2 gyrokinetic code shows that the most unstable ion-scale micro-instability is the ion temperature gradient (ITG) mode. Since the computed maximum ion-scale linear growth rates are larger than the local Waltz-Miller E × B shearing rate (Waltz and Miller 1999 Phys. Plasmas 6 4265), the E × B shear is unable to suppress ion-scale turbulence, consistent with the experimental observation of ion-scale turbulence. Experimental ion and electron thermal transports, calculated with power balance analysis, are both anomalous with ion thermal transport being the dominant channel. Nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations using the electrostatic global particle-in-cell gyrokinetic tokamak simulation (GTS) code (Weixing Wang et al 2010 Phys. Plasmas 17 072511) show good quantitative agreement between predicted ion thermal transport and that from the power balance analysis. These results demonstrate for the first time the important role of ITG turbulence in driving thermal transport in NBI-heated L-mode plasmas in EAST, showing the effectiveness of GTS code in simulating electrostatic turbulence in EAST and the need of suppressing ITG turbulence to improve energy confinement in EAST.

Sun, P. J. [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Hef↗

Simulation of divertor heat flux width on EAST by BOUT++ transport code

The BOUT++ edge plasma transport code is applied to study the effects of neutral recycling, drifts and heating scheme on edge plasma profiles and the divertor heat flux width of two discharges of the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST) steady-state H-mode plasmas heated by low hybrid wave (LHW) and neutral beam (NB), respectively. Neutral recycling seems to have played an important role in the plasma density profile. The edge plasma density drops dramatically for the case w/o neutral recycling, while it can be sustained for the case w/ neutral recycling. Drifts are found to have significant influences on edge plasma profiles. Both the amplitude and width of the divertor heat flux are found to have increased a lot due to drifts. The simulated heat flux width w/ drifts for the two discharges shows reasonable agreement with the experiments. However, the width from the simulation and experiment for the LHW heated discharge is much larger than that of the NB heated discharge. Comparison with Goldston's drift-based model and more detailed analysis on the heat flux contributions from drifts versus turbulence show that drifts are the dominant factor in edge plasma transport for both LHW and NB heated discharges, while turbulence may have played a more important role in determining the heat flux width in LHW heated discharges than that in NB heated discharges. This may account for the larger heat flux width in the LHW heated discharge. The magnetic topology and the equilibrium change by the LHW power may also be a potential reason for the larger heat flux width in the LHW heated discharges, which still needs more evidence and studies to support it. Finally, additional SOLPS simulation w/o drifts for the two discharges show reasonable agreement with the counterpart from the BOUT++ simulation, suggesting the two are both suitable codes for EAST edge plasma simulation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Dimensionless parameters for cloudy Rayleigh-Bénard convection: Supersaturation, Damköhler, and Nusselt numbers

In steady-state Rayleigh-Bénard convection, heat is transported by turbulent thermal convection from the bottom, hot surface to the top, cold surface, leading to a height-independent sensible heat flux. When water vapor is present and cloud formation occurs, there is also an additional latent heat flux. Heat transport in cloudy Rayleigh-Bénard convection depends on turbulent flow as well as the microphysical state of the clouds: specifically, whether substantial supersaturations exist and whether cloud liquid water is removed through sedimentation/precipitation. In this article we bridge between the Rayleigh-Bénard convection literature and the atmospheric literature. We express the governing equations for cloudy convection in dimensionless form, thereby explicitly identifying the governing parameters relevant to the cloudy case, including Schmidt, Damköhler, supersaturation, and sedimentation numbers. We further connect to the atmospheric literature by obtaining a Nusselt number (dimensionless heat flux) for a cloud-convection system, directly from the conservation equations for temperature and water vapor. This flux has the same form as that identified by Zhang et al. [L. Zhang, K. L. Chong, and K.-Q. Xia, J. Fluid Mech. 874, 1041 (2019)] for convection with water vapor, but is extended to the cloudy case. For equal thermal and water vapor diffusivities, the flux corresponds to the widely used atmospheric quantities equivalent temperature and moist static energy. Using large eddy simulation (LES) of an idealized cloudy Rayleigh-Bénard convection system with fixed boundary conditions, we find that the equivalent heat flux (Nusselt number) is only weakly dependent on the microphysical details of the system, such as liquid water mixing ratio and cloud droplet number concentration. Finally, from the results, we show the vertical profiles of sensible and latent heat fluxes depend on the liquid water content, whereas the equivalent heat flux remains a constant throughout the height of the chamber.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Broadening of microwave heating beams in the DIII-D tokamak by edge turbulence

Abstract We have demonstrated for the first time that turbulent plasma density fluctuations in the edge of the DIII-D tokamak are responsible for substantial broadening of an injected microwave beam by successful quantitative comparison between experimental observations and first principles 2D full-wave simulations. The broadening of the beam has important implications for control of tokamak discharges through localized electron cyclotron deposition needed for eliminating magnetohydrodynamic instabilities. This new predictive capability is mandatory to design & operate present & future tokamaks in such a way that microwave heating schemes achieve their intended objectives.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Impact of edge harmonic oscillations on the divertor heat flux in NSTX

Previously, ELM-free and inter-ELM divertor peak heat flux reduction induced by an edge harmonic oscillation (EHO) was observed in NSTX (K.F. Gan et al., 2017 Nucl. Fusion 57 126053). This paper introduces new analysis of the EHO impact on the divertor heat flux. It was found that enhanced edge turbulence significantly altered the divertor heat flux footprint in NSTX H-modes, relative to ELM-free discharges. When the background edge fluctuation level was low, the EHO significantly increased the heat flux width and decreased the divertor peak heat flux. When the background edge fluctuation level was high, the EHO actually increased the divertor peak heat flux. As a result, it was also found that the heat flux width increased with increasing frequency of the EHO.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Resolving ECRH deposition broadening due to edge turbulence in DIII-D

Microwave heat pulse propagation experiments have demonstrated a correlation between millimeter-scale turbulence and deposition profile broadening of electron cyclotron (EC) waves on the DIII-D tokamak. In a set of discharges in DIII-D, a variation in edge density fluctuations on the mm-scale is associated with 40%–150% broader deposition profiles, expressed in terms of normalized minor radius, as compared with equilibrium ray tracing. The 1D power profile is determined from transport analysis of the electron temperature response to EC power modulation using perturbative analysis with a square wave power modulation at 20–70 Hz, producing a series of Fourier harmonics that are fit collectively to resolve transport. Fitting an integrated heat flux expressed in the Fourier basis of the modulation to diffusive, convective, and coupled transport terms in a linear model can resolve the broadened EC deposition width from the power perturbation to resolve a broadening in each case. The best fit degree of beam broadening observed scales approximately linearly with the Doppler backscattering measured fluctuation level in the steep gradient region. Quantifying the effect of edge fluctuation broadening on EC current drive power needs of future devices will require 3D full-wave codes that can be validated on the current generation of machines. These DIII-D experiments provide a quantitative measure of fluctuation effects and a dataset to benchmark full-wave simulations that can model and eventually predict nonlinear effects neglected by 1D equilibrium beam and ray tracing.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Onset of Nucleate Boiling Prediction in a Mini Channel with the Eulerian Multiphase Flow

The prediction of boiling incipience is a critical issue for a reactor. Vapor lock causes operating instability and undesirable temperature rise, especially for small channels. This study uses the Eulerian multiphase flow boiling model to predict the onset of nucleate boiling in a millimeter scale rectangular channel. Two wall boiling models, namely the RPI (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute) and the non-equilibrium sub cooled model are applied. Computational fluid dynamics is employed for this study to investigate the impact of operating conditions like liquid flow rate, operating pressure, heat flux, velocity profile, turbulence model, and inlet liquid temperature. Here, the effect of fundamental boiling parameters on the surface wall temperature and vapor volume fraction is also studied. The parameters under consideration are the bubble departure diameter, bubble departure frequency, nucleate site density, quenching time period, and interface heat transfer coefficients. A series of CFD calculations is conducted by varying the considered variables systematically in a wide range of flow conditions covering laminar, transition, and turbulent flows. The sub-component heat fluxes like the liquid convective, the vapor convective, the evaporative, and the quenching terms are monitored to infer the boiling dynamics in the transition region from the single-phase flow to the nucleate boiling zone. It is found that the CFD approach to detecting the boiling incipience point agrees reasonably with available experimental data. However, its limitations, like inaccuracy for lower flow rates and early transition to boiling flow, are also noticed due to the nature of the considered RPI model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Elements of H-mode pedestal structure

Abstract This paper reviews current understanding of key physics elements that control the H-mode pedestal structure, which exists at the boundary of magnetically confined plasmas. The structure of interest is the width, height and gradient of temperature, density and pressure profiles in the pedestal. Emphasis is placed on understanding obtained from combined experimental, theoretical and simulation work and on results observed on multiple machines. Pedestal profiles are determined by the self-consistent interaction of sources, transport and magnetohydrodynamic limits. The heat source is primarily from heat deposited in the core and flowing to the pedestal. This source is computed from modeling of experimental data and is generally well understood. Neutrals at the periphery of the plasma provide the dominant particle source in current machines. This source has a complex spatial structure, is very difficult to measure and is poorly understood. For typical H-mode operation, the achievable pedestal pressure is limited by repetitive, transient magnetohydrodynamic instabilities. First principles models of peeling–ballooning modes are generally able to explain the observed limits. In some regimes, instability occurs below the predicted limits and these remain unexplained. Several mechanisms have been identified as plausible sources of heat transport. These include neoclassical processes for ion heat transport and several turbulent processes, driven by the steep pedestal gradients, as sources of electron and ion heat transport. Reduced models have successfully predicted the pedestal or density at the pedestal top. Firming up understanding of heat and particle transport remains a primary challenge for developing more complete predictive pedestal models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The winter central Arctic surface energy budget: A model evaluation using observations from the MOSAiC campaign

This study evaluates the simulation of wintertime (15 October, 2019, to 15 March, 2020) statistics of the central Arctic near-surface atmosphere and surface energy budget observed during the MOSAiC campaign with short-term forecasts from 7 state-of-the-art operational and experimental forecast systems. Five of these systems are fully coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere models. Forecast systems need to simultaneously simulate the impact of radiative effects, turbulence, and precipitation processes on the surface energy budget and near-surface atmospheric conditions in order to produce useful forecasts of the Arctic system. This study focuses on processes unique to the Arctic, such as, the representation of liquid-bearing clouds at cold temperatures and the representation of a persistent stable boundary layer. It is found that contemporary models still struggle to maintain liquid water in clouds at cold temperatures. Given the simple balance between net longwave radiation, sensible heat flux, and conductive ground flux in the wintertime Arctic surface energy balance, a bias in one of these components manifests as a compensating bias in other terms. This study highlights the different manifestations of model bias and the potential implications on other terms. Three general types of challenges are found within the models evaluated: representing the radiative impact of clouds, representing the interaction of atmospheric heat fluxes with sub-surface fluxes (i.e., snow and ice properties), and representing the relationship between stability and turbulent heat fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗