Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Unbiased estimator”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Improved Soil Moisture Estimation and Detection of Irrigation Signal By Incorporating SMAP Soil Moisture Into the Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS)

Land surface models have facilitated the estimation of soil moisture over a range of spatiotemporal scales. However, limitations in model parameterization and under-representation of anthropogenic processes restrict their ability to estimate local-scale soil moisture variability, especially over irrigated areas. Assimilation of satellite-based soil moisture retrievals into land surface models can be a viable approach to overcome these constraints, specially over highly irrigated countries such as India, where such applications are rare. Additionally, large-scale validation of modeled soil moisture has been limited over India till now due to lack of a representative station network. By assimilating Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP)-based estimates into the state-of-the-art Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS) and combining with a new soil moisture station network of more than 200 stations, this study demonstrates improved soil moisture estimations and capture of irrigation signals over the region. The Noah-MP land surface model is forced by multiple local and global meteorological datasets and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used for assimilation of soil moisture. Comparison of open-loop and data assimilated soil moisture against station soil moisture data shows relative spatial mean improvement of 0.0178 in correlation and 0.0029 m3/m3 in RMSE. Further statistical comparison with in-situ data has also shown better results over most of the stations, as evident from improved correlations and reduced unbiased RMSE after assimilation. Finally, the climatology of soil moisture over the different irrigation fractions reveals that data assimilated outputs over irrigated grid cells tend to have higher soil moisture during dry winter season, demonstrating the ability to capture irrigation signals. These findings quantify the value of data assimilation in improving soil moisture estimates and the ability to capture unmodeled processes such as irrigation, which lays the science groundwork for upcoming space missions such as NASA ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR).

Soil Moisture↗
NASA NTRS1987

Stellar bars and the spatial distribution of infrared luminosity

Ground-based 10 micron observations of the central region of over 100 infrared luminous galaxies are presented. A first order estimate of the spatial distribution of infrared emission in galaxies is obtained through a combination of ground-based and Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) data. The galaxies are nearby and primarily noninteracting, permitting an unbiased investigation of correlations with Hubble type. Approximately 40% of the early-type barred galaxies in this sample are associated with enhanced luminosity in the central (approximately 1 kpc diameter) region. The underlying luminosity source is attributed to both Seyfert and star formation activity. Late-type spirals are different in that the spatial distribution of infrared emission and the infrared luminoisty are not strongly dependent on barred morphology.

Devereux, Nicholas↗
NASA NTRS2019

Fractional Polarization of Extragalactic Sources in the 500 deg 2 SPTpol Survey

We study the polarization properties of extragalactic sources at 95 and 150 GHz in the SPTpol 500 deg 2 survey. We estimate the polarized power by stacking maps at known source positions, and correct for noise bias by subtracting the mean polarized power at random positions in the maps. We show that the method is unbiased using a set of simulated maps with similar noise properties to the real SPTpol maps. We find a flux-weighted mean-squared polarization fraction 〈p 2 〉 = [8.9 ± 1.1] × 10 -4 at 95 GHz and [6.9 ± 1.1] × 10 -4 at 150 GHz for the full sample. This is consistent with the values obtained for a subsample of active galactic nuclei. For dusty sources, we find 95 per cent upper limits of 〈p 2 〉95 < 16.9 × 10 -3 and 〈p 2 〉150 < 2.6 × 10 -3 . We find no evidence that the polarization fraction depends on the source flux or observing frequency. The 1σ upper limit on measured mean-squared polarization fraction at 150 GHz implies that extragalactic foregrounds will be subdominant to the CMB E and B mode polarization power spectra out to at least ℓ ≲ 5700 (ℓ ≲ 4700) and ℓ ≲ 5300 (ℓ ≲ 3600), respectively, at 95 (150) GHz.

Nikhel Gupta↗
NASA NTRS1979

Maximum likelihood estimation for life distributions with competing failure modes

Systems which are placed on test at time zero, function for a period and die at some random time were studied. Failure may be due to one of several causes or modes. The parameters of the life distribution may depend upon the levels of various stress variables the item is subject to. Maximum likelihood estimation methods are discussed. Specific methods are reported for the smallest extreme-value distributions of life. Monte-Carlo results indicate the methods to be promising. Under appropriate conditions, the location parameters are nearly unbiased, the scale parameter is slight biased, and the asymptotic covariances are rapidly approached.

Sidik, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Contributions of Gauge-Based Precipitation and SMAP Brightness Temperature Observations to the Skill of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Product

Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission L-band brightness temperature (Tb) observations are routinely assimilated into the Catchment land surface model to generate Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) estimates of global surface and root-zone soil moisture at 9-km, 3-hourly resolution with ~2.5-day latency. The Catchment model in the L4_SM algorithm is driven with ¼-degree, hourly surface meteorological forcing data from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). Outside of Africa and the high latitudes, GEOS precipitation is corrected using Climate Prediction Center Unified (CPCU) gauge-based, ½-degree, daily precipitation. L4_SM soil moisture was previously shown to improve over land model-only estimates that use CPCU precipitation but no Tb assimilation (CPCU_SIM). Here, we additionally examine the skill of model-only (CTRL) and Tb assimilation-only (SMAP_DA) estimates derived without CPCU precipitation. Soil moisture is assessed versus in situ measurements in well-instrumented regions and globally through the Instrumental Variable (IV) method using independent soil moisture retrievals from the Advanced Scatterometer. At the in situ locations, SMAP_DA and CPCU_SIM have comparable soil moisture skill improvements relative to CTRL for the unbiased root-mean-square error (surface and root-zone) and correlation metrics (root-zone only). In the global average, SMAP Tb assimilation increases the surface soil moisture anomaly correlation by 0.10-0.11 compared to an increase of 0.02-0.03 from the CPCU-based precipitation corrections. The contrast is particularly strong in central Australia, where CPCU is known to have errors and observation-minus-forecast Tb residuals are larger when CPCU precipitation is used. Validation versus streamflow measurements in the contiguous U.S. reveals that CPCU precipitation provides most of the skill gained in L4_SM runoff estimates over CTRL.

SMAP↗
NASA NTRS2021

Validation of SMAP L2 passive-only soil moisture products using upscaled in situ measurements collected in Twente, the Netherlands

The Twente region in the east of the Netherlands has a network with twenty soil monitoring stations that has been utilized for validation of the Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) passive-only soil moisture products. Over the period from April 2015 until December 2018, seven stations covered by the SMAP reference pixels 15 have fairly complete data records. Spatially distributed soil moisture simulations with the Dutch national hydrological model have been utilized for the development of upscaling functions to translate the spatial mean of point measurements to the domain of the SMAP reference pixels. The native and upscaled spatial soil moisture means computed using the in-situ measurements have been adopted as references to assess the performance of the SMAP i) Single Channel Algorithm at Horizontal Polarization (SCA-H), ii) Single Channel Algorithm at Vertical Polarization (SCA-V), and iii) Dual Channel Algorithm (DCA) soil moisture estimates. In the case of the Twente network it was found that the SCA-V soil moisture retrieved SMAP observations collected in the afternoon had the best agreement with the native spatial mean leading to an unbiased Root Mean Squared Error (uRMSE) of 0.059 m3 m-3, whereas for the upscaled in-situ references primarily larger biases were found. These error levels are larger than the mission’s target accuracy of 0.04 m3 m-3, which can be attributed to large over- and underestimation errors (>0.08 m3 m-3) in particular at the end of dry spells and during freezing, respectively. The strong vertical dielectric gradients associated with rapid soil freezing and wetting causes the disparity in soil depth characterized by SMAP and in situ that leads to the large mismatches. Once filtered for frozen conditions and antecedent rainfall the uRMSE improves to 0.043 m3 m-3.

Rogier van der Velde↗
NASA NTRS2022

Verification and Validation of Hybridspectral Radiometry Obtained from an Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) in the Open and Coastal Oceans

The hardware and software capabilities of the compact-profiling hybrid instrumentation for radiometry and ecology (C-PHIRE) instruments on an unmanned surface vessel (USV) are evaluated. Both the radiometers and USV are commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) products, with the latter being only minimally modified to deploy the C-PHIRE instruments. The hybridspectral C-PHIRE instruments consist of an array of 18 multispectral microradiometers with 10 nm wavebands spanning 320–875 nm plus a hyperspectral compact grating spectrometer (CGS) with 2048 pixels spanning 190–1000 nm. The C-PHIRE data were acquired and processed using two architecturally linked software packages, thereby allowing lessons learned in one to be applied to the other. Using standard data products and unbiased statistics, the C-PHIRE data were validated with those from the well-established compact-optical profiling system (C-OPS) and verified with the marine optical buoy (MOBY). Agreement between algorithm variables used to estimate colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption and chlorophyll a concentration were also validated. Developing and operating novel technologies, such as the C-PHIRE series of instruments, deployed on a USV increase the frequency and coverage of optical observations, which are required to fully support the present and next-generation validation exercises in radiometric remote sensing of aquatic ecosystems.

Hybridspectral↗
NASA NTRS2021

Asymmetry in Subseasonal Surface Air Temperature Forecast Error with Respect to Soil Moisture Initialization

Soil moisture (W) helps control evapotranspiration (ET), and ET variations can in turn have a distinct impact on 2-m air temperature (T2M), given that increases in evaporative cooling encourage reduced temperatures. Soil moisture is accordingly linked to T2M, and realistic soil moisture initialization has, in previous studies, been shown to improve the skill of subseasonal T2M forecasts. The relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, however, is distinctly nonlinear, with ET tending to increase with soil moisture in drier conditions and to be insensitive to soil moisture variations in wetter conditions. Here, through an extensive analysis of subseasonal forecasts produced with a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system, this nonlinearity is shown to imprint itself on T2M forecast error in the conterminous United States in two unique ways: (i) the T2M forecast bias (relative to independent observations) induced by a negative precipitation bias tends to be larger for dry initializations, and (ii) on average, the unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) tends to be larger for dry initializations. Such findings can aid in the identification of forecasts of opportunity; taken a step further, they suggest a pathway for improving bias correction and uncertainty estimation in subseasonal T2M forecasts by conditioning each on initial soil moisture state.

Air Temperature↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

T2M Forecasts at Subseasonal Leads: Do Different Soil Moisture Initial States Have Different Impacts?

Soil moisture (W) helps control evapotranspiration (ET), and ET variations can in turn have a distinct impact on 2-m air temperature (T2M), given that increases in evaporative cooling encourage reduced temperatures. Soil moisture is accordingly linked to T2M, and realistic soil moisture initialization has, in previous studies, been shown to improve the skill of subseasonal T2M forecasts. The relationship between soil moisture and evapotranspiration, however, is distinctly nonlinear, with ET tending to increase with soil moisture in drier conditions and to be insensitive to soil moisture variations in wetter conditions. Here, through an extensive analysis of subseasonal forecasts produced with a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system, this nonlinearity is shown to imprint itself on T2M forecast error in the conterminous United States in two unique ways: (i) the T2M forecast bias (relative to independent observations) induced by a negative precipitation bias tends to be larger for dry initializations, and (ii) on average, the unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) tends to be larger for dry initializations. Such findings can aid in the identification of forecasts of opportunity; taken a step further, they suggest a pathway for improving bias correction and uncertainty estimation in subseasonal T2M forecasts by conditioning each on initial soil moisture state.

2-meter Temperature↗
NASA NTRS1999

Moisture Forecast Bias Correction in GEOS DAS

Data assimilation methods rely on numerous assumptions about the errors involved in measuring and forecasting atmospheric fields. One of the more disturbing of these is that short-term model forecasts are assumed to be unbiased. In case of atmospheric moisture, for example, observational evidence shows that the systematic component of errors in forecasts and analyses is often of the same order of magnitude as the random component. we have implemented a sequential algorithm for estimating forecast moisture bias from rawinsonde data in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The algorithm is designed to remove the systematic component of analysis errors and can be easily incorporated in an existing statistical data assimilation system. We will present results of initial experiments that show a significant reduction of bias in the GEOS DAS moisture analyses.

Dee, D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

An Assessment of the Differences Between Spatial Resolution and Grid Size for the SMAP Enhanced Soil Moisture Product over Homogeneous Sites

Satellite-based passive microwave remote sensing typically involves a scanning antenna that makes measurements at irregularly spaced locations. These locations can change on a day to day basis. Soil moisture products derived from satellite-based passive microwave remote sensing are usually resampled to a fixed Earth grid that facilitates their use in applications. In many cases the grid size is finer than the actual spatial resolution of the observation, and often this difference is not well understood by the user. Here, this issue was examined for the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) enhanced version of the passive-based soil moisture product, which has a grid size of 9-km and a nominal spatial resolution of 33-km. In situ observations from core validation sites were used to compute comparison metrics. For sites that satisfied the established reliability and scaling criteria, the impact of validating the 9-km grid product with in situ data collected over a 9-km versus a 33-km domain was very small for the sites studied (0.039 cu. m/cu. m unbiased root mean square difference for the 9-km case versus 0.037 cu. m/cu. m for the 33-km case). This result does not mean that the resolution of the product is 9-km but that for the conditions studied here the soil moisture estimated from in situ observations over 9-km is a close approximation of the soil moisture estimated from in situ observations over the 33-km resolution. The implication is that using the enhanced SMAP product at its grid resolution of 9-km should not introduce large errors in most applications.

Soil moisture↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Multi-Model Trajectory Simulation Estimators using Model Selection and Tuning

Multi-model Monte Carlo methods have been demonstrated to be an efficient and accurate alternative to standard Monte Carlo (MC) in the model-based propagation of uncertainty in entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications. These multi-model MC methods fuse predictions from low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity EDL model of interest to produce unbiased statistics with a fraction of the computational cost. The accuracy and efficiency of the multi-model MC methods are dependent upon the magnitude of correlations of the low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity model, but also upon the correlation amongst the low-fidelity models, and their relative computational cost. Because of this layer of complexity, the question of how to optimally select the set of low-fidelity models has remained open. In this work, methods for optimal model construction and tuning are investigated as a means to increase the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. Specifically, the focus is on the inclusion of low-fidelity model tuning within the sample allocation optimization that accompanies multi-model MC methods. Preliminary results indicate that low-fidelity model tuning can significantly improve efficiency and precision of trajectory simulations and provide an increased edge to multi-model MC methods when compared to standard MC. The challenges and potential benefits to exploring a fully iterative and comprehensive optimization strategy in future work are highlighted.

uncertainty quantification↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Multi-Model Trajectory Simulation Estimators using Model Selection and Tuning

Multi-model Monte Carlo methods have been demonstrated to be an efficient and accurate alternative to standard Monte Carlo (MC) in the model-based propagation of uncertainty in entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications. These multi-model MC methods fuse predictions from low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity EDL model of interest to produce unbiased statistics with a fraction of the computational cost. The accuracy and efficiency of the multi-model MC methods are dependent upon the magnitude of correlations of the low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity model, but also upon the correlation among the low-fidelity models, and their relative computational cost. Because of this layer of complexity, the question of how to optimally select the set of low-fidelity models has remained open. In this work, methods for optimal model construction and tuning are investigated as a means to increase the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. Specifically, the focus is on the inclusion of low-fidelity model tuning within the sample allocation optimization that accompanies multi-model MC methods. Preliminary results indicate that low-fidelity model tuning can significantly improve efficiency and precision of trajectory simulations and provide an increased edge to multi-model MC methods when compared to standard MC. The challenges and potential benefits to exploring a fully iterative and comprehensive optimization strategy in future work are highlighted.

uncertainty quantification↗
NASA NTRS1993

Effects of vertical distribution of water vapor and temperature on total column water vapor retrieval error

Results are presented of a test of the physically based total column water vapor retrieval algorithm of Wentz (1992) for sensitivity to realistic vertical distributions of temperature and water vapor. The ECMWF monthly averaged temperature and humidity fields are used to simulate the spatial pattern of systematic retrieval error of total column water vapor due to this sensitivity. The estimated systematic error is within 0.1 g/sq cm over about 70 percent of the global ocean area; systematic errors greater than 0.3 g/sq cm are expected to exist only over a few well-defined regions, about 3 percent of the global oceans, assuming that the global mean value is unbiased.

Sun, Jielun↗
NASA NTRS2016

Why Do Models Overestimate Surface Ozone in the Southeast United States?

Ozone pollution in the Southeast US involves complex chemistry driven by emissions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxide radicals (NO(x) triple bond NO + NO2) and biogenic isoprene. Model estimates of surface ozone concentrations tend to be biased high in the region and this is of concern for designing effective emission control strategies to meet air quality standards. We use detailed chemical observations from the SEAC(exp 4)RS aircraft campaign in August and September 2013, interpreted with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model at 0.25 deg x 0.3125 deg horizontal resolution, to better understand the factors controlling surface ozone in the Southeast US. We find that the National Emission Inventory (NEI) for NO(x) from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is too high. This finding is based on SEAC(exp 4)RS observations of NO(x) and its oxidation products, surface network observations of nitrate wet deposition fluxes, and OMI satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns. Our results indicate that NEI NO(x) emissions from mobile and industrial sources must be reduced by 30-60%, dependent on the assumption of the contribution by soil NO(x) emissions. Upper-tropospheric NO2 from lightning makes a large contribution to satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 that must be accounted for when using these data to estimate surface NO(x) emissions. We find that only half of isoprene oxidation proceeds by the high-NO(x) pathway to produce ozone; this fraction is only moderately sensitive to changes in NO(x) emissions because isoprene and NO(x) emissions are spatially segregated. GEOS-Chem with reduced NO(x) emissions provides an unbiased simulation of ozone observations from the aircraft and reproduces the observed ozone production efficiency in the boundary layer as derived from a regression of ozone and NO(x) oxidation products. However, the model is still biased high by 6 plus or minus 14 ppb relative to observed surface ozone in the Southeast US. Ozonesondes launched during midday hours show a 7 ppb ozone decrease from 1.5 km to the surface that GEOS-Chem does not capture. This bias may reflect a combination of excessive vertical mixing and net ozone production in the model boundary layer.

Oxidation↗
NASA NTRS2016

Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission L4_SM Data Product Assessment (Version 2 Validated Release)

During the post-launch SMAP calibration and validation (Cal/Val) phase there are two objectives for each science data product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithm, and 2) validate the accuracy of the science data product as specified in the science requirements and according to the Cal/Val schedule. This report provides an assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture Passive (L4_SM) product specifically for the product's public Version 2 validated release scheduled for 29 April 2016. The assessment of the Version 2 L4_SM data product includes comparisons of SMAP L4_SM soil moisture estimates with in situ soil moisture observations from core validation sites and sparse networks. The assessment further includes a global evaluation of the internal diagnostics from the ensemble-based data assimilation system that is used to generate the L4_SM product. This evaluation focuses on the statistics of the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals and the analysis increments. Together, the core validation site comparisons and the statistics of the assimilation diagnostics are considered primary validation methodologies for the L4_SM product. Comparisons against in situ measurements from regional-scale sparse networks are considered a secondary validation methodology because such in situ measurements are subject to up-scaling errors from the point-scale to the grid cell scale of the data product. Based on the limited set of core validation sites, the wide geographic range of the sparse network sites, and the global assessment of the assimilation diagnostics, the assessment presented here meets the criteria established by the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites for Stage 2 validation and supports the validated release of the data. An analysis of the time average surface and root zone soil moisture shows that the global pattern of arid and humid regions are captured by the L4_SM estimates. Results from the core validation site comparisons indicate that "Version 2" of the L4_SM data product meets the self-imposed L4_SM accuracy requirement, which is formulated in terms of the ubRMSE: the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) after removal of the long-term mean difference. The overall ubRMSE of the 3-hourly L4_SM surface soil moisture at the 9 km scale is 0.035 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The corresponding ubRMSE for L4_SM root zone soil moisture is 0.024 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. Both of these metrics are comfortably below the 0.04 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The L4_SM estimates are an improvement over estimates from a model-only SMAP Nature Run version 4 (NRv4), which demonstrates the beneficial impact of the SMAP brightness temperature data. L4_SM surface soil moisture estimates are consistently more skillful than NRv4 estimates, although not by a statistically significant margin. The lack of statistical significance is not surprising given the limited data record available to date. Root zone soil moisture estimates from L4_SM and NRv4 have similar skill. Results from comparisons of the L4_SM product to in situ measurements from nearly 400 sparse network sites corroborate the core validation site results. The instantaneous soil moisture and soil temperature analysis increments are within a reasonable range and result in spatially smooth soil moisture analyses. The O-F residuals exhibit only small biases on the order of 1-3 degrees Kelvin between the (re-scaled) SMAP brightness temperature observations and the L4_SM model forecast, which indicates that the assimilation system is largely unbiased. The spatially averaged time series standard deviation of the O-F residuals is 5.9 degrees Kelvin, which reduces to 4.0 degrees Kelvin for the observation-minus-analysis (O-A) residuals, reflecting the impact of the SMAP observations on the L4_SM system. Averaged globally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals is close to unity, which would suggest that the magnitude of the modeled errors approximately reflects that of the actual errors. The assessment report also notes several limitations of the "Version 2" L4_SM data product and science algorithm calibration that will be addressed in future releases. Regionally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals deviates considerably from unity, which indicates that the L4_SM assimilation algorithm either over- or under-estimates the actual errors that are present in the system. Planned improvements include revised land model parameters, revised error parameters for the land model and the assimilated SMAP observations, and revised surface meteorological forcing data for the operational period and underlying climatological data. Moreover, a refined analysis of the impact of SMAP observations will be facilitated by the construction of additional variants of the model-only reference data. Nevertheless, the “Version 2” validated release of the L4_SM product is sufficiently mature and of adequate quality for distribution to and use by the larger science and application communities.

SMAP L4_SM↗
NASA NTRS1977

Prediction and measurement results of radiation damage to CMOS devices on board spacecraft

Final results from the CMOS Radiation Effects Measurement (CREM) experiment flown on Explorer 55 are presented and discussed, based on about 15 months of observations and measurements. Conclusions are given relating to long-range annealing, effects of operating temperature on semiconductor performance in space, biased and unbiased P-MOS device degradation, unbiased n-channel device performance, changes in device transconductance, and the difference in ionization efficiency between Co-60 gamma rays and 1-Mev Van de Graaff electrons. The performance of devices in a heavily shielded electronic subsystem box within the spacecraft is evaluated and compared. Environment models and computational methods and their impact on device-degradation estimates are being reviewed to determine whether they permit cost-effective design of spacecraft.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Evaluating the Capacity of Global CO2 Flux and Atmospheric Transport Models to Incorporate New Satellite Observations

As we enter the new era of satellite remote sensing for CO2 and other carbon cyclerelated quantities, advanced modeling and analysis capabilities are required to fully capitalize on the new observations. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. For application to current, planned, and future remotely sensed CO2 data, it is desirable that these models are accurate and unbiased at time scales from less than daily to multi-annual and at spatial scales from several kilometers or finer to global. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 1998 through 2006. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at lxi degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-2), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to in situ observations at sites in Northern mid latitudes and the continental tropics. The influence of key process representations is inferred. We find that the model can resolve much of the hourly to synoptic variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The seasonal cycle and its interannual variations generally respond adequately, but discrepancies in the tropics suggest the need for a refinement of the soil moisture dependence of the respiration flux in CASA. Examples and inferences for interpretation of satellite data will be discussed. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in the terrestrial CO2 sink and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Kawa, S. R.↗