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DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Data Set Bias and Decision Support with Predictive Uncertainty Through Bayesian Approximations and Convolutional Neural Networks

Individual seismic catalogs can contain multiscale observations from fault level to global scales and associated waveforms from discrete events reflect crustal structure across many different scales and locations. Seismic network aperture, geographic location, and observation distance may not provide informative guidance or intuition on how different catalogs will behave across models trained under different conditions. We rely on uncertainty to provide guardrails for when to trust model decisions, but understanding when our uncertainty is trustworthy is an open challenge. Here, in this work, we explore Bayesian approximation methods for assigning predictive uncertainty in seismic event classification problems. We find that computationally expensive Bayesian approximations do not outperform simple ensemble methods. We also find that when exploiting multiple seismic event catalogs, joint training with data from all the catalogs combined with Bayesian approximations and supervised training for classification can obscure bias and result in less robust uncertainty while also not providing substantial performance benefits compared to training individual models for each catalog.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Precision calibration of calorimeter signals in the ATLAS experiment using an uncertainty-aware neural network

The ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider explores the use of modern neural networks for a multi-dimensional calibration of its calorimeter signal defined by clusters of topologically connected cells (topo-clusters). The Bayesian neural network (BNN) approach not only yields a continuous and smooth calibration function that improves performance relative to the standard calibration but also provides uncertainties on the calibrated energies for each topo-cluster. The results obtained by using a trained BNN are compared to the standard local hadronic calibration and to a calibration provided by training a deep neural network. The uncertainties predicted by the BNN are interpreted in the context of a fractional contribution to the systematic uncertainties of the trained calibration. They are also compared to uncertainty predictions obtained from an alternative estimator employing repulsive ensembles.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

New RES and DIS Uncertainties for NOvA Cross-Section Model

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino experiment at Fermilab that studies neutrino oscillations via electron neutrino appearance and muon neutrino disappearance. The oscillation measurements compare the Far Detector data to an oscillated prediction informed by the Near Detector (ND) data. This ND-informed prediction is produced from the neutrino generator GENIE, which provides NOvA with a set of interaction uncertainties. However, this coverage does not account for all interaction uncertainties relevant for NOvA, in particular for resonance production (RES) and deep inelastic scattering (DIS) processes, which comprise a substantial portion of NOvA's interactions. Here we introduce six new cross section uncertainties that affect RES and DIS interactions, which represent degrees of freedom not available in the previous NOvA model. After careful studying of their impact, we incorporate them to the NOvA cross-section model. We show the impact of these new uncertainties on various reconstructed quantities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraining Systematics at SBND to Reduce Uncertainties in SBN Oscillation Analyses

The Short Baseline Near Detector (SBND) is a crucial component of the Short Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program, situated 110 meters from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) target. This 112-ton Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) Near Detector is optimally positioned to investigate the potential existence of an additional flavor of neutrino through neutrino oscillation. Due to its proximity to the BNB target, SBND is uniquely positioned to receive a high rate of un-oscillated neutrino events. This setup offers a valuable opportunity to examine exclusive channels, thereby enhancing our understanding of various neutrino interaction modes, aiding in the understanding and mitigation of various sources of uncertainties. By fully utilizing the detector's capabilities, we aim to mitigate significant uncertainties in neutrino oscillation studies, primarily those related to neutrino interactions and flux. Achieving a deeper understanding of these uncertainties and controlling them with near detector data is essential. In this poster I will present an SBND event selection to control these uncertainties for the SBN oscillation analyses.

Yadav, Shweta [Texas U., Arlington]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Basic Research Needs for Inverse Methods for Complex Systems under Uncertainty

Inverse problems, which aim to infer unknown properties of a system using experimental and observational data, are central to addressing many of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) most critical scientific and engineering challenges. Accurate, computationally efficient, and data-efficient solutions to inverse problems are essential for advancing DOE mission-critical science drivers, including analyzing data from large-scale experimental facilities, optimizing fusion reactor performance, accelerating materials discovery, enhancing geophysical imaging, improving wildfire predictions, and enabling autonomous systems and digital twins. However, these problems are becoming increasingly complex, often involving nonlinear, highdimensional, and interconnected systems and models that span multiple physics and scales, while relying on data with varying quantity, quality, and information content. Compounding these challenges is the uncertainty inherent in DOE-relevant systems, where errors in inputs, noise in data, incompleteness of data, and discrepancies between models and reality constrain the accuracy and precision of solutions. At the same time, the convergence of recent scientific computing trends—scientific machine learning, artificial intelligence, and computing advances such as exascale computing—is creating unprecedented opportunities for tackling these challenges. The cross-cutting nature of inverse problems, combined with their growing complexity and rapidly evolving data and algorithmic demands, strongly motivates the formulation of a prioritized research agenda to maximize their capabilities and impact. In response to this need, DOE’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program in the Office of Science convened the Workshop on Basic Research Needs for Inverse Problems for Complex Systems Under Uncertainty in June 2025. This workshop brought together experts across disciplines to identify grand challenges and major opportunities in the field. Through collaborative discussions, the workshop defined transformative research directions aimed at addressing the mathematical, statistical, and computational challenges posed by inverse problems under uncertainty. As a result of these efforts, four priority research directions (PRDs) were identified to guide future research and development in this area. These PRDs, summarized below, represent a roadmap for advancing the foundational science and mathematics of inverse problems, enabling robust, scalable, and uncertainty-aware solutions that are critical for DOE applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Laser Confocal Microscopy Uncertainty Quantification Study

At Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), the Storage Safety and Engineering (SSE) team completes annual surveillance on a subset of in-use interim nuclear material storage containers in fulfilment of requirements outlined in DOE Manual M 441.1-1. The containers are selected through several methods, such as subject matter expert judgement, random selection, and trending items. Following these selections, the SSE team has the capacity to complete surveillance on 15-20 containers each fiscal year, composed of a combination of SAVY-4000 and Hagan storage containers. Through previous work, the stainless-steel components of the containers have been identified as life limiting components, with an emphasis on the thin-walled bodies. The team is focused on understanding the extent of general and pitting corrosion, due to observations of extensive corrosion from stored contents and bag-out-bag degradation. Quantifying corrosion effects on the thin-walled stainless steel container bodies, and understanding potential impacts to the respective design release rates and design qualification release rates is paramount to the team. To date, destructive examination (DE) has proven to be the most insightful method for developing an understanding on the extent of corrosion on used containers. To standardize this process, the SSE team developed a destructive examination guide for analyzing stainless steel components of the containers. Corroded containers of interest are identified during surveillance activities and set aside for sectioning and characterization. Following sectioning, a major step in the DE workflow is the utilization of laser confocal microscopy for scanning corroded samples of interest and extracting data on pits, such as count, depth, and equivalent diameter. Adhering to the techniques outlined in the DE guide, analysis has been completed on two Hagans and one SAVY-4000 container, with the maximum pit depth recorded as 139.1 ± 22.82 μm on a 17.5 year old Hagan. The findings from the completed destructive examinations will be utilized to support lifetime extension efforts of the SAVY-4000 as the team can better estimate corrosion rates and effects over time based on stored contents and age. Due to the implications of observing extreme pit depths that approach the nominal container body thickness of .0299 inches (0.759 mm) or minimum container thickness of 0.236” (0.6 mm), high confidence in the LCM measurements is desired. Through testing outlined in, it was concluded that the total error ascribed to the 20x objective when conducting large image mapping on the Keyence VK-X3050 laser confocal microscope (LCM) relative to a 50x objective (reference) is 16.4% (± 8.73%). For shallow features on the order of pristine SAVY surface defects (i.e. 5 μm), this uncertainty is appropriate. However, this conservative estimate of total error poses a fundamental concern for pit depths that approach the thickness of the measured samples. That is, with the measurement uncertainty currently employed on all measurements, the LCM would be unable to resolve if a pit with a depth of 515 μm is through wall. Standard step height samples were procured and used in the present study to assess the resolution and repeatability of height measurements. Understanding the resolution and repeatability of height measurements was the first focus of the team as it relates directly to pit depth, which is of primary concern. Calibration gratings were procured to evaluate the resolution and repeatability of measurements in the X and Y axes of the LCM stage. The results of the depth uncertainty study were conducted first and presented in the subsequent sections. The planar uncertainty study is appended to the depth study with conclusions from both summarized at the end of the report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

HFIR Steady State Heat Transfer Code (HSSHTC) Statistical Uncertainty Analysis

HSSHTC, the safety basis steady state TH code for HFIR, uses a highly conservative approach in which all input and calculation uncertainties are resolved simultaneously at their most limiting setting. This results in excessive conservatism which does not account for the high unlikelihood of such simultaneous worst-case conditions. The present study explores an alternative approach, BEPU, in which reasonable working assumptions for the probability distribution of each input uncertainty are used to determine a relationship between burnout power margin and core fuel failure probability. This was performed under a philosophy of perturbing uncertainty parameters already defined within the HSSHTC methodology while preserving the HSSHTC calculation approach and solution methodology itself. Based on the assumptions employed in this study, the BEPU approach resulted in a 0.29 increase in burnout power ratio (25 MW increase in burnout power) compared to the latest HSSHTC calculations of C-HFIR-2026-004. The study can be refined in the future by employing fuel fabrication data to provide more realistic input distributions. Future changes to the HSSHTC methodology would potentially allow a more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties which may further increase the burnout power ratio.

Wysocki, Aaron [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000222043779)↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Quantification Challenge Problem: XFOIL vs. MFOIL

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has become more critical in aerospace engineering due to the growing dependence on computational tools for design optimization and performance analyses of aerospace vehicles. Even though the significance of UQ in assessing the credibility of computational analyses is well recognized, its costs and complexity impede its integration into standard practices, particularly in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and other fluid analyses. This paper presents a UQ study for low-fidelity computational aerodynamics analyses with XFOIL and mfoil (i.e., the MATLAB version of XFOIL with several implementation modifications); these tools are utilized widely in both research and education. The main contributions of this paper are as follows: 1) improved precision in quantifying the uncertainty of the baseline Monte Carlo results used to benchmark surrogate modeling techniques for UQ, 2) quantification of the effect of the implementation differences between XFOIL and mfoil on solution quantities of interest (QoIs), such as lift and pitching moment coefficients, and 3) development of an open-source UQ library for use with XFOIL and mfoil, which has educational values and helps promote UQ for fluid analyses with aerospace applications. Results and discussions revolve around cases 1-4 of the challenge problem posed by the AIAA Fluid Dynamics Technical Committee’s Uncertainty Quantification Discussion Group (UQDG). In case 3, this work employs CFDverify, an open-source solution verification software, to quantify the discretization error and evaluate the extrapolated QoIs based on the grid convergence index (GCI). This UQ study differentiates itself from previous studies in the rigor of handling baseline Monte Carlo uncertainty and in including mfoil, which is a more accessible alternative to XFOIL. Finally, despite the growing computing power, low-fidelity computational tools remain valuable, such as for aerodynamic shape optimization at Mach numbers below 0.65 and low-to-mid Reynolds numbers.

Lay, Aidan S [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

This dataset contains results estimating projections of change of annual capacity factors and levelized cost of energy for several turbine technologies in the 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Projections of change are based on downscaled earth system model (ESM) data from Sup3rCC. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run land-based wind energy models with a range of possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States to estimate critical system performance metrics such as annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy. Where multiple earth system models agree, changes in mean AEP from the time period 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Several additional states in the Midwest that currently have considerable wind generation capacity show the possibility of substantial decreases in AEP by mid-century. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset even the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will actually change into the future and to what extent wind energy systems can drive down future costs. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, the uncertainty in future wind resource can be almost as important for future changes in the cost of wind energy as the uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling atmospheric, hydrological, and coupling uncertainties in compound flood modeling within a coupled Earth system model

Compound riverine and coastal flooding is usually driven by complex interactions among meteorological, hydrological, and ocean extremes. However, existing efforts to model this phenomenon often do not integrate hydrological processes across atmosphere–land–river–ocean systems, leading to substantial uncertainties that have not been fully examined. To bridge this gap, we leverage the new capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that enable a multi-component framework that integrates coastally refined atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components. We evaluate compound uncertainties arising from two-way land–river–ocean coupling in E3SM and track the cascading meteorological and hydrological uncertainties through ensemble simulations over the Delaware River basin and estuary during Hurricane Irene (2011). Our findings highlight the importance of two-way river–ocean coupling to compound flood modeling and demonstrate E3SM's capability in capturing compound flood extent near the coast, with a hit rate over 0.75. Our study shows the growing uncertainties that transition from atmospheric forcings to flood distribution and severity. Furthermore, an analysis based on artificial neural networks is used to assess the roles of hydrological drivers, such as infiltration and soil moisture, in the generation of compound flooding. The response of compound floods to tropical cyclones (TCs) is found to be susceptible to these often overlooked drivers. For instance, the flooded area could increase more than 2-fold (∼2.4) if Hurricane Irene were preceded by an extreme antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). The results not only support the use of a multi-component framework for interactive flooding processes, but also underscore the necessity of broader definitions of compound flooding that encompass the simultaneous occurrence of intense precipitation, storm surge, and high AMC during TCs.

Feng, Dongyu [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2024

The PARADIGM Project: Case Study in Balancing Experiment Uncertainty with Design simplicity

Accurate nuclear data are required for simulations of many applications including nuclear criticality safety. Actinide nuclear data at intermediate energies (from 1 to 100s of keV) are imprecise and inaccurate, because of scarce differential data, and an insufficient theory approach to capture the structures expected in the data to yield evaluated nuclear data, and lack of integral data for proper validation. This is a known deficiency but has proved challenging to address. More specifically, only 5% of integral experiments in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmark suite address intermediate energies (Fig. 1). Associated calculated effective multiplication factor, k eff , values for these experiments are far outside the experimental uncertainties and are 25× further from experiment than for fast energies. These differences could either stem from systematic biases in nuclear data, experiments or both. The goal of the PARADIGM (PARallel Approach of Differential and InteGral Measurements) project is to significantly reduce (by more than tens of percent) the uncertainties of intermediate energy actinide nuclear data. The PARADIGM project designed and intends to execute LANSCE (Los Alamos Neutron Science CEnter) and NCERC (National Criticality Experiments Research Center) intermediate experiments in parallel. They will specifically address a high priority nuclear data need—reducing bias and uncertainty in intermediate plutonium nuclear data. The two experiment will achieve that by informing each other and nuclear theory. By doing all these steps in parallel, the timeline to deliver improved nuclear data to users will significantly be reduced. This work will focus on the integral experiment final design and the balance of design and modeling simplicity while minimizing experiment uncertainty.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic symplectic reduced-order modeling for model-form uncertainty quantification in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles

Here, this work focuses on the representation of model-form uncertainties in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles. In prior contributions, the modeling of such uncertainties was formalized and applied to quantify the impact of, and the error generated by, pair-potential selection in the microcanonical ensemble (NVE). In this work, we extend this formulation and present a linear-subspace reduced-order model for the canonical (NVT) and isobaric (NPT) ensembles. The symplectic reduced-order basis is randomized on the tangent space of the Stiefel manifold to provide topological relationships and capture model-form uncertainty. Using the Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS), we assess the relevance of these stochastic reduced-order atomistic models on canonical problems involving a Lennard-Jones fluid and an argon crystal melt.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Data–Induced Uncertainties in Criticality Safety Analyses for High-Burnup and Extended Enrichment Fuels

Criticality safety analyses are conducted to show compliance with regulatory standards and to demonstrate safe operational conditions during the storage and transportation of spent nuclear fuel. Given the increased interest in the industry in low-enriched uranium plus (LEU+) and higher-burnup fuel, it is important to study the impact of such fuels’ use on criticality safety analyses and the resulting nuclear data–induced uncertainties. Here, in this work, nominal pressurized water reactor assemblies with LEU+ fuel enrichments up to 8 wt% 235 U and high burnups up to 80 GWd/tonne U were studied. The assemblies were placed in a generic burnup credit cask GBC-32. As a result of the different covariance libraries, using the ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data library consistently resulted in lower nuclear data uncertainties than did the use of the ENDF/B-VIII.0 data library. The highest contribution in the nuclear data–induced uncertainties resulted from the major actinides, and their contribution increased with increasing burnup and enrichment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification Enabled by Automatic Differentiation for Hydrodynamic Simulation of Shock‐to‐Detonation Transition in High Explosives

Quantifying the effects of uncertainty in a reactive burn model on the run-to-detonation time in high explosives (HEs) provides a robust methodology for assessing the probability of an HE failing the IHE qualification standard. Moreover, uncertainty quantification helps evaluate whether the model calibration accurately represents data outside the calibration set. This study uses a specialized hydrodynamic simulation code for modeling detonation to determine the run-to-detonation time of the HE PBX 9502 for various impact velocities. To quickly approximate uncertainties in the model, a surrogate was constructed using a Taylor series expansion centered at the mean of the input parameters. To obtain the sensitivities required for constructing the Taylor series, HYP-percomplex Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) was implemented. HYPAD is a methodology for infusing existing codes with automatic differentiation capabilities by augmenting variables with one or more imaginary units to compute step-size independent partial derivatives. These derivatives are accurate to machine precision with respect to the implemented numerical algorithm, meaning their accuracy reflects that of the underlying method (e.g., integration or discretization schemes). Using reduced order modeling techniques, the mean and standard deviation of the run-to-detonation time of a shock within PBX 9502 were computed for a number of initial impact velocities. A weighted least squares regression was then performed to obtain a best fit curve and prediction interval for the computed statistics. Historical data points from explosively driven wedge tests were utilized to validate the prediction interval, ensuring its reliability in predicting future outcomes. With this prediction interval and a known safety constraint curve, the most probable point of failure and the probability of failure for the HE PBX 9502 were determined.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing decision boundaries under uncertainty

In order to make design decisions, engineers may seek to identify regions of the design domain that are acceptable in a computationally efficient manner. A design is typically considered acceptable if its reliability with respect to parametric uncertainty exceeds the designer’s desired level of confidence. Despite major advancements in reliability estimation and in design classification via decision boundary estimation, the current literature still lacks a design classification strategy that incorporates parametric uncertainty and desired design confidence. To address this gap, this paper offers a novel interpretation of the acceptance region by defining the decision boundary as the hypersurface which isolates the designs that exceed a user-defined level of confidence given parametric uncertainty. This work addresses the construction of this novel decision boundary using computationally efficient algorithms that were developed for reliability analysis and decision boundary estimation. The approach proposed in this paper is verified on two physical examples from structural and thermal analysis using Support Vector Machines and Efficient Global Optimization-based contour estimation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for multicomponent CALPHAD model optimization and uncertainty quantification

CALPHAD model parameter optimization is inherently challenging due to non-smooth objective functions, high-dimensional parameter spaces, and the need for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Traditional weighted nonlinear least squares approaches are computationally efficient but local, whereas black-box global optimizers and ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide broader exploration at substantial computational cost. The objective of this work is to combine the global exploration capability of gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo – specifically the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) – with local deterministic refinement using BFGS to efficiently optimize multicomponent CALPHAD models with minimal manual intervention. Analytic gradients are computed via the Jansson derivative framework. The methodology is demonstrated on the Cr—Fe binary system and extended to the Cr—Fe—Ni ternary system with 32 degrees of freedom. For Cr—Fe, NUTS achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to ensemble MCMC while requiring over an order-of-magnitude fewer likelihood evaluations. Parameter uncertainties are quantified through NUTS sampling and propagated to thermodynamic observables using local expansion, demonstrating a novel modular approach that combines binary and ternary parameter subsets without requiring global relaxation. These results establish gradient-informed exploration as a scalable strategy for multicomponent CALPHAD optimization and provide a practical route towards efficient higher-order database development with quantified uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic finite volume method for uncertainty quantification of transient flow in gas pipeline networks

We develop a weakly intrusive framework to simulate the propagation of uncertainty in solutions of generic hyperbolic partial differential equation systems on graph-connected domains with nodal coupling and boundary conditions. The method is based on the Stochastic Finite Volume (SFV) approach and can be applied for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the dynamical state of fluid flow over actuated transport networks. The numerical scheme has specific advantages for modeling intertemporal uncertainty in time-varying boundary parameters, which cannot be characterized by strict upper and lower (interval) bounds. We describe the scheme for a single pipe, and then formulate the controlled junction Riemann problem (JRP) that enables the extension to general network structures. In conclusion, we demonstrate the method's capabilities and performance characteristics using a standard benchmark test network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗