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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8

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NASA NTRS2018

Engineering Elegant Systems: Postulates, Principles, and Hypotheses of Systems Engineering

Definition: System Engineering is the engineering discipline which integrates the system functions, system environment, and the engineering disciplines necessary to produce and/or operate an elegant system; Elegant System - A system that is robust in application, fully meeting specified and adumbrated intent, is well structured, and is graceful in operation. Primary Focus: System Design and Integration: Identify system couplings and interactions; Identify system uncertainties and sensitivities; Identify emergent properties; Manage the effectiveness of the system. Engineering Discipline Integration: Manage flow of information for system development and/or operations; Maintain system activities within budget and schedule. Supporting Activities: Process application and execution.

Watson, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Strategic and Tactical Functions in an Autonomous Air Traffic Management System

This paper evaluates, by means of fast-time simulation, performance of a candidate system for autonomous air traffic management. Advancing towards autonomy in air traffic management may be necessary in order for new air vehicle types such as electric Vertical Take Off and Landing (eVTOL) to operate safely and efficiently in airspace shared with conventional traffic. To account for uncertain prediction, autonomous air traffic management was divided into two integrated and coordinated subsystems: strategic scheduling, performed at predeparture, and tactical conflict detection and resolution, performed throughout the flight. The conflict detection and resolution subsystem contained a second tactical scheduling function that applied to flights operating in the airspace near the destination airport. This paper compares and contrasts the two subsystems and uses fast-time simulation to demonstrate the comparisons. A scenario of 54 flights inbound to Newark Liberty International Airport was simulated multiple times with different parameters. The scenario was created using flight plans recorded from the National Airspace System on a low weather, average traffic day in April 2018. Whereas the routes were not changed, the departure times of the flights were modified to increase arrival rates at the Newark runway and arrival meter fixes. Results of the simulations showed that the autonomous air traffic management system was able to safely manage the traffic, even with prediction uncertainty. In addition, they showed the importance of including flight holding maneuvers, in addition to path stretching, in conflict detection and resolution and of coordinating strategic and tactical scheduling. Finally, a tradeoff between absorbing the delay calculated by strategic scheduling on the ground versus in the air showed that taking most of the delay on the ground is cost effective for a simple idealized cost function. However, taking a little of the delay in the air prevented throughput on the runway from dropping for short periods due to trajectory prediction uncertainty.

air traffic control↗

NASA NTRS2021

Strategic and Tactical Functions in an Autonomous Air Traffic Management System

air traffic control↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Generalized Guidance Approach to In-Space Solid-Propellant Vehicle Maneuvers

Exploration-class vehicles that require fully autonomous ascent and descent must employ robust, explicit path-adaptive guidance algorithms that can operate in a wide range of physical environments. Vehicle designs that employ solid-propellant rocket motors (SRMs) for maneuvers are attractive from a systems engineering perspective because of their simplicity and reliability, but may cause complications for both mission designers and GNC engineers when dealing with total impulse uncertainty, as well as proper energy management of a motor with an uncontrolled cutoff time. This paper presents a simplified guidance algorithm, named Simple Cross-Product Steering (SxS), that was derived during early studies of NASA’s Mars Sample Return mission’s Mars Ascent Vehicle. The algorithm takes roots in a flight-proven guidance algorithm commonly referred to as Cross-Product Steering. SxS has been shown to provide sufficient guidance accuracy for in-space SRM burns in a simulated Martian environment, and preliminary studies have been conducted to test the algorithm in a solid-propellant lunar braking scenario. A method for predicting proper motor ignition time during execution of the Cross-Product Steering algorithm is the primary contribution of this paper. Mechanization notes are also provided that were realized in early phases of MAV. Results are shown for an example ascent vehicle in a simulated Mars environment.

GNC↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Generalized Guidance Approach to In-Space Solid-Propellant Vehicle Maneuvers

Exploration-class vehicles that require fully autonomous ascent and descent must employ robust, explicit path-adaptive guidance algorithms that can operate in a wide range of physical environments. Vehicle designs that employ solid-propellant rocket motors (SRMs) for maneuvers are attractive from a system engineering perspective because of their simplicity and reliability but may cause complications for both mission designers and GNC engineers when dealing with total impulse uncertainty, as well as proper energy management of a motor with an uncontrolled cutoff time. This paper presents a simplified guidance algorithm, named Simple Cross-Product Steering (SxS), that was derived during early studies of NASA’s Mars Sample Return mission’s Mars Ascent Vehicle. The algorithm takes roots in a flight-proven guidance algorithm commonly referred to as Cross-Product Steering. This algorithm has been shown to provide sufficient guidance accuracy for in-space SRM burns in a simulated Martian environment, and preliminary studies have been conducted to test the algorithm in a solid-propellant lunar braking scenario. A method for predicting proper motor ignition time during execution of the Cross-Product Steering algorithm is the primary contribution of this paper. Mechanization notes are also provided that were realized in early phases of MAV. Results are shown for an example ascent vehicle a simulated Mars environment.

Jason M Everett↗

NASA NTRS1983

The development of aerodynamic uncertainties for the space shuttle orbiter

The Shuttle Program development schedule and the management decision to perform an orbital, manned mission on the first launch resulted in a requirement to develop realistic aerodynamic uncertainties for the preflight aerodynamic predictions. This paper addresses the methodology in developing two types of aerodynamic uncertainties. One involves the ability to reproduce aerodynamic results between various wind tunnel tests. The second addresses the difference between preflight aerodynamic predictions and flight results derived from analysis of past aircraft programs. Both types of uncertainties for pitching moment, lateral-directional stability, rudder power, and aileron power are presented. In addition, the application of uncertainties to flight control design and fight test planning is briefly reviewed.

Young, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Development of A Multidecadal Land Reanalysis Over High Mountain Asia

Anthropogenic and climatic changes affect the water and energy cycles in High Mountain Asia (HMA), home to over two billion people and the largest reservoirs of freshwater outside the polar zone. Despite their significant importance for water management, consistent and reliable estimates of water storage and fluxes over the region are lacking because of the high uncertainties associated with the estimates of atmospheric conditions and human management. Here, we relied on multivariate data assimilation (MVDA) to provide estimates of energy and water storage and fluxes that reflect the processes occurring in the region such as greening and irrigation-driven groundwater depletion. We developed and employed an ensemble precipitation estimate by blending different precipitation products thereby reducing the uncertainties and inconsistencies associated with precipitation in HMA. Then, we assimilated five variables that capture the changes in hydrology in response to climate change and anthropogenic activities. Overall, our results have shown that MVDA has allowed a better representation of the land surface processes including greening and irrigation-driven groundwater depletion in HMA.

Fadji Z. Maina↗

NASA NTRS2007

Adapting Project Management Practices to Research-Based Projects

From dealing with the inherent uncertainties in outcomes of scientific research to the lack of applicability of current NASA Procedural Requirements guidance documentation, research-based projects present challenges that require unique application of classical project management techniques. If additionally challenged by the creation of a new program transitioning from basic to applied research in a technical environment often unfamiliar with the cost and schedule constraints addressed by project management practices, such projects can find themselves struggling throughout their life cycles. Finally, supplying deliverables to a prime vehicle customer, also in the formative stage, adds further complexity to the development and management of research-based projects. The Biomedical Research and Countermeasures Projects Branch at NASA Johnson Space Center encompasses several diverse applied research-based or research-enabling projects within the newly-formed Human Research Program. This presentation will provide a brief overview of the organizational structure and environment in which these projects operate and how the projects coordinate to address and manage technical requirements. We will identify several of the challenges (cost, technical, schedule, and personnel) encountered by projects across the Branch, present case reports of actions taken and techniques implemented to deal with these challenges, and then close the session with an open forum discussion of remaining challenges and potential mitigations.

Bahr, P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Accounting for Point Estimate Uncertainty in Space Systems Reliability and Risk Analysis

Understanding and accounting for uncertainty in risk analysis is a critical step in the management and communication of risk in engineered systems. The component and system-level analysis to determine the probability of a negative outcome and its consequence is often quantified by a point estimate. Many Program and Enterprise decisions involving technical concerns and issues rely on reliability engineering activities to produce quantified risk analysis to inform the decision making process. At NASA, it is common to use a Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) to inform the overall risk to Loss of Mission or Loss of Crew that involves integration across all spacecraft subsystem fault trees to produce an overall probability of mission failure. The point estimate is an estimate of this overall probability and is an immediate result of a fault tree model. It is the result of a model where the probability of each event is taken to be equal to its mean. The value provides an approximation of the overall mean without running any uncertainty calculations (e.g., no sampling). Using only the point estimate can lead to a false sense of precision and the point estimate may not match the resulting mean when uncertainty is taken into consideration. This paper will explore five conditions that can cause the PRA model mean to diverge from the point estimate and will provide engineers and managers insight into the importance of understanding uncertainty in the elements of PRA models.

Paul J Collier↗

NASA NTRS1976

A methodology for the evaluation of program cost and schedule risk for the SEASAT program

An interactive computerized project management software package (RISKNET) is designed to analyze the effect of the risk involved in each specific activity on the results of the total SEASAT-A program. Both the time and the cost of each distinct activity can be modeled with an uncertainty interval so as to provide the project manager with not only the expected time and cost for the completion of the total program, but also with the expected range of costs corresponding to any desired level of significance. The nature of the SEASAT-A program is described. The capabilities of RISKNET and the implementation plan of a RISKNET analysis for the development of SEASAT-A are presented.

Abram, P.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Wind Information Uplink to Aircraft Performing Interval Management Operations

The accuracy of the wind information used to generate trajectories for aircraft performing Interval Management (IM) operations is critical to the success of an IM operation. There are two main forms of uncertainty in the wind information used by the Flight Deck Interval Management (FIM) equipment. The first is the accuracy of the forecast modeling done by the weather provider. The second is that only a small subset of the forecast data can be uplinked to the aircraft for use by the FIM equipment, resulting in loss of additional information. This study focuses on what subset of forecast data, such as the number and location of the points where the wind is sampled should be made available to uplink to the aircraft.

Ahmad, Nashat↗

NASA NTRS2022

Remote sensing-based vegetation and soil moisture constraints reduce irrigation estimation uncertainty

Understanding the human water footprint and its impact on the hydrological cycle is essential to inform water management under climate change. Despite efforts in estimating irrigation water withdrawals in earth system models, uncertainties and discrepancies exist within and across modeling systems conditioned by model structure, irrigation parameterization, and the choice of input datasets. Achieving model reliability could be much more challenging for data-sparse regions, given limited access to ground truth for parameterization and validation. Here, we demonstrate the potential of utilizing remotely sensed vegetation and soil moisture observations in constraining irrigation estimation in the Noah-MP land surface model. Results indicate that the two constraints together can effectively reduce model sensitivity to the choice of irrigation parameterization by 7%–43%. It also improves the characterization of the spatial patterns of irrigation and its impact on evapotranspiration and surface soil moisture by correcting for vegetation conditions and irrigation timing. This study highlights the importance of utilizing remotely sensed soil moisture and vegetation measurements in detecting irrigation signals and correcting for vegetation growth. Integrating the two remote sensing datasets into the model provides an effective and less feature engineered approach to constraining the uncertainty of irrigation modeling. Such strategies can be potentially transferred to other modeling systems and applied to regions across the globe.

Wanshu Nie↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble‐Based Spatially Distributed CLM5 Hydrological Parameter Estimation for the Continental United States

Abstract One of the major challenges in large‐domain hydrological modeling efforts lies in the estimation of spatially distributed hydrological parameters while simultaneously accounting for their associated uncertainties. Addressing this challenge is particularly difficult in ungauged locations. With growing societal demands for large‐scale streamflow projections to inform water resource management and long‐term planning, evaluating and constraining hydrological parameter uncertainty is increasingly vital. This study introduces a hybrid regionalization approach to enhance hydrological predictions of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) across the Continental United States (CONUS), with a total of 50,629 1/8° grid cells. This hybrid method combines the strengths of two existing techniques: parameter regionalization and streamflow signature regionalization. It identifies ensemble behavioral parameters for each 1/8° grid cell across the CONUS domain, tailored to three distinct streamflow signatures focused on low flows, high flows, and annual water balance. Evaluating this hybrid method for 464 CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large‐sample Studies) basins demonstrates a significant improvement in CLM5 hydrological predictions, even in challenging arid regions. In CONUS applications, the derived spatially distributed parameter sets capture both spatial continuity and variation of parameters, highlighting their heterogeneous nature within specific regions. Overall, this hybrid regionalization approach offers a promising solution to the complex task of improving hydrological modeling over large domains for important hydrological applications.

CLM5↗

NASA NTRS2017

Supportability Challenges, Metrics, and Key Decisions for Future Human Spaceflight

Future crewed missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) represent a logistical challenge that is unprecedented in human space flight. Astronauts will travel farther and stay in space for longer than any previous mission, far from timely abort or resupply from Earth. Under these conditions, supportability { defined as the set of system characteristics that influence the logistics and support required to enable safe and effective operations of systems { will be a much more significant driver of space system lifecycle properties than it has been in the past. This paper presents an overview of supportability for future human space flight. The particular challenges of future missions are discussed, with the differences between past, present, and future missions highlighted. The relationship between supportability metrics and mission cost, performance, schedule, and risk is also discussed. A set of pro- posed strategies for managing supportability is presented (including reliability growth, uncertainty reduction, level of repair, commonality, redundancy, In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) (including the use of material recycling and In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) for spares and maintenance items), reduced complexity, and spares inventory decisions such as the use of predeployed or cached spares - along with a discussion of the potential impacts of each of those strategies. References are provided to various sources that describe these supportability metrics and strategies, as well as associated modeling and optimization techniques, in greater detail. Overall, supportability is an emergent system characteristic and a holistic challenge for future system development. System designers and mission planners must carefully consider and balance the supportability metrics and decisions described in this paper in order to enable safe and effective beyond-LEO human space flight.

Owens, Andrew C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Controls for Electrified Aircraft Propulsion

Advanced electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) concepts with integrated power, propulsion, and thermal systems require the development of equally sophisticated controllers to fly safe and efficient missions. Hybrid electric aircraft utilize electric machines mechanically coupled to the engine shafts to extract and insert power for a variety of purposes. Additionally, electric machines may drive propulsive fans pulling from a combination of on-board energy storage devices and engine extracted power. NASA’s investment in hybrid electric aircraft hardware-in-the-loop testing enables controls research on representative engine models using a novel emulation and scaling methodology. High-voltage, high-power electrical powertrain presents several technical risks at altitude. High-power requires high efficiency to minimize losses. Superconducting electric machines and power distribution research at NASA has identified key challenges with potential controls solutions. These risks necessitate the development of controllers robust to model uncertainty, disturbances, and fault conditions. System health management and fault detection schemes play an important role in a multi-layer controls approach that utilizes a supervisor which oversees inner loops for the highly coupled power, propulsion, and thermal systems. Such a supervisory controller enables coordinates energy transfer between engines, energy storage devices, electric machines, propulsors, and heat exchangers. Existing methods have shown an improvement in engine operability using the hybrid electric powertrain.

Halle E Buescher↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing and communicating uncertainty: lessons from NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System

Navigating uncertainty is a critical challenge in all fields of science, especially when translating knowledge into real-world policies or management decisions. However, the wide variance in concepts and definitions of uncertainty across scientific fields hinders effective communication. As a microcosm of diverse fields within Earth Science, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) provides a useful crucible in which to identify cross-cutting concepts of uncertainty. The CMS convened the Uncertainty Working Group (UWG), a group of specialists across disciplines, to evaluate and synthesize efforts to characterize uncertainty in CMS projects. This paper represents efforts by the UWG to build a heuristic framework designed to evaluate data products and communicate uncertainty to both scientific and non-scientific end users. We consider four pillars of uncertainty: origins, severity, stochasticity versus incomplete knowledge, and spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Using a common vocabulary and a generalized workflow, the framework introduces a graphical heuristic accompanied by a narrative, exemplified through contrasting case studies. Envisioned as a versatile tool, this framework provides clarity in reporting uncertainty, guiding users and tempering expectations. Beyond CMS, it stands as a simple yet powerful means to communicate uncertainty across diverse scientific communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating irrigation water use from remotely sensed evapotranspiration data: Accuracy and uncertainties at field, water right, and regional scales

Irrigated agriculture is the dominant user of water globally, but most water withdrawals are not monitored or reported. As a result, it is largely unknown when, where, and how much water is used for irrigation. Here, we evaluated the ability of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data, integrated with other datasets, to calculate irrigation water withdrawals and applications in an intensively irrigated portion of the United States. We compared irrigation calculations based on an ensemble of satellite-driven ET models from OpenET with reported groundwater withdrawals from hundreds of farmer irrigation application records and a statewide flowmeter database at three spatial scales (field, water right group, and management area). At the field scale, we found that ET-based calculations of irrigation agreed best with reported irrigation when the OpenET ensemble mean was aggregated to the growing season timescale (bias = 1.6–4.9%, R 2 = 0.53–0.74), and agreement between calculated and reported irrigation was better for multi-year averages than for individual years. At the water right group scale, linking pumping wells to specific irrigated fields was the primary source of uncertainty. At the management area scale, calculated irrigation exhibited similar temporal patterns as flowmeter data but tended to be positively biased with more interannual variability. Disagreement between calculated and reported irrigation was strongly correlated with annual precipitation, and calculated and reported irrigation agreed more closely after statistically adjusting for annual precipitation. The selection of an ET model was also an important consideration, as variability across ET models was larger than the potential impacts of conservation measures employed in the region. From these results, we suggest key practices for working with ET-based irrigation data that include accurately accounting for changes in soil moisture, deep percolation, and runoff; careful verification of irrigated area and well-field linkages; and conducting application-specific evaluations of uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Quantification and Statistical Engineering for Hypersonic Entry Applications

NASA has invested significant resources in developing and validating a mathematical construct for TPS margin management: a) Tailorable for low/high reliability missions; b) Tailorable for ablative/reusable TPS; c) Uncertainty Quantification and Statistical Engineering are valuable tools not exploited enough; and d) Need to define strategies combining both Theoretical Tools and Experimental Methods. The main reason for this lecture is to give a flavor of where UQ and SE could contribute and hope that the broader community will work with us to improve in these areas.

Cozmuta, Ioana↗