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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

A surface layer variance heat budget for ENSO

Abstract Characteristics of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as frequency, propagation, spatial extent, and amplitude, strongly depend on the climatological background state of the tropical Pacific. Multidecadal changes in the ocean mean state are hence likely to modulate ENSO properties. To better link background state variations with low‐frequency amplitude changes of ENSO, we develop a diagnostic framework that determines locally the contributions of different physical feedback terms on the ocean surface temperature variance. Our analysis shows that multidecadal changes of ENSO variance originate from the delicate balance between the background‐state‐dependent positive thermocline feedback and the atmospheric damping of sea surface temperatures anomalies. The role of higher‐order processes and atmospheric and oceanic nonlinearities is also discussed. The diagnostic tool developed here can be easily applied to other tropical ocean areas and climate phenomena.

Boucharel, Julien↗
NASA NTRS2010

Impact of Damping Uncertainty on SEA Model Response Variance

Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) is commonly used to predict high-frequency vibroacoustic levels. This statistical approach provides the mean response over an ensemble of random subsystems that share the same gross system properties such as density, size, and damping. Recently, techniques have been developed to predict the ensemble variance as well as the mean response. However these techniques do not account for uncertainties in the system properties. In the present paper uncertainty in the damping loss factor is propagated through SEA to obtain more realistic prediction bounds that account for both ensemble and damping variance. The analysis is performed on a floor-equipped cylindrical test article that resembles an aircraft fuselage. Realistic bounds on the damping loss factor are determined from measurements acquired on the sidewall of the test article. The analysis demonstrates that uncertainties in damping have the potential to significantly impact the mean and variance of the predicted response.

Schiller, Noah↗
DOE OSTI2013

Uncertainty quantification for evaluating impacts of caprock and reservoir properties on pressure buildup and ground surface displacement during geological CO2 sequestration

A series of numerical test cases reflecting broad and realistic ranges of geological formation properties was developed to systematically evaluate and compare the impacts of those properties on geomechanical responses to CO2 injection. A coupled hydro-geomechanical subsurface transport simulator, STOMP (Subsurface Transport over Multiple Phases), was adopted to simulate the CO2 migration process and geomechanical behaviors of the surrounding geological formations. A quasi-Monte Carlo sampling method was applied to efficiently sample a high-dimensional parameter space consisting of injection rate and 14 subsurface formation properties, including porosity, permeability, entry pressure, irreducible gas and aqueous saturation, Young’s modulus, and Poisson’s ratio for both reservoir and caprock. Generalized cross-validation and analysis of variance methods were used to quantitatively measure the significance of the 15 input parameters. Reservoir porosity, permeability, and injection rate were found to be among the most significant factors affecting the geomechanical responses to the CO2 injection. We used a quadrature generalized linear model to build a reduced-order model that can estimate the geomechanical response instantly instead of running computationally expensive numerical simulations.

CO2 geological sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

An adaptive ANOVA-based PCKF for high-dimensional nonlinear inverse modeling

The probabilistic collocation-based Kalman filter (PCKF) is a recently developed approach for solving inverse problems. It resembles the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in every aspect—except that it represents and propagates model uncertainty by polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) instead of an ensemble of model realizations. Previous studies have shown PCKF is a more efficient alternative to EnKF for many data assimilation problems. However, the accuracy and efficiency of PCKF depends on an appropriate truncation of the PCE series. Having more polynomial chaos basis functions in the expansion helps to capture uncertainty more accurately but increases computational cost. Selection of basis functions is particularly important for high-dimensional stochastic problems because the number of polynomial chaos basis functions required to represent model uncertainty grows dramatically as the number of input parameters (random dimensions) increases. In classic PCKF algorithms, the PCE basis functions are pre-set based on users' experience. Also, for sequential data assimilation problems, the basis functions kept in PCE expression remain unchanged in different Kalman filter loops, which could limit the accuracy and computational efficiency of classic PCKF algorithms. To address this issue, we present a new algorithm that adaptively selects PCE basis functions for different problems and automatically adjusts the number of basis functions in different Kalman filter loops. The algorithm is based on adaptive functional ANOVA (analysis of variance) decomposition, which approximates a high-dimensional function with the summation of a set of low-dimensional functions. Thus, instead of expanding the original model into PCE, we implement the PCE expansion on these low-dimensional functions, which is much less costly. We also propose a new adaptive criterion for ANOVA that is more suited for solving inverse problems. The new algorithm was tested with different examples and demonstrated great effectiveness in comparison with non-adaptive PCKF and EnKF algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1987

A further analysis for the minimum-variance deconvolution filter performance

Chi and Mendel (1984) analyzed the performance of minimum-variance deconvolution (MVD). In this correspondence, a further analysis of the performance of the MVD filter is presented. It is shown that the MVD filter performs like an inverse filter and a whitening filter as SNR goes to infinity, and like a matched filter as SNR goes to zero. The estimation error of the MVD filter is colored noise, but it becomes white when SNR goes to zero. This analysis also conects the error power-spectral density of the MVD filter with the spectrum of the causal-prediction error filter.

Chi, Chong-Yung↗
DOE OSTI2014

Parameters’ Covariance in Neutron Time of Flight Analysis – Explicit Formulae

We present here a method that estimates the parameters’ variance in a parametric model for neutron time of flight (NToF). The analytical formulae for parameter variances, obtained independently of calculation of parameter values from measured data, express the variances in terms of the choice, settings, and placement of the detector and the oscilloscope. Consequently, the method can serve as a tool in planning a measurement setup.

fusion↗
NASA NTRS2010

Finite Element Model Calibration Approach for Area I-X

Ares I-X is a pathfinder vehicle concept under development by NASA to demonstrate a new class of launch vehicles. Although this vehicle is essentially a shell of what the Ares I vehicle will be, efforts are underway to model and calibrate the analytical models before its maiden flight. Work reported in this document will summarize the model calibration approach used including uncertainty quantification of vehicle responses and the use of non-conventional boundary conditions during component testing. Since finite element modeling is the primary modeling tool, the calibration process uses these models, often developed by different groups, to assess model deficiencies and to update parameters to reconcile test with predictions. Data for two major component tests and the flight vehicle are presented along with the calibration results. For calibration, sensitivity analysis is conducted using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). To reduce the computational burden associated with ANOVA calculations, response surface models are used in lieu of computationally intensive finite element solutions. From the sensitivity studies, parameter importance is assessed as a function of frequency. In addition, the work presents an approach to evaluate the probability that a parameter set exists to reconcile test with analysis. Comparisons of pretest predictions of frequency response uncertainty bounds with measured data, results from the variance-based sensitivity analysis, and results from component test models with calibrated boundary stiffness models are all presented.

Horta, Lucas G.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Finite Element Model Calibration Approach for Ares I-X

Ares I-X is a pathfinder vehicle concept under development by NASA to demonstrate a new class of launch vehicles. Although this vehicle is essentially a shell of what the Ares I vehicle will be, efforts are underway to model and calibrate the analytical models before its maiden flight. Work reported in this document will summarize the model calibration approach used including uncertainty quantification of vehicle responses and the use of nonconventional boundary conditions during component testing. Since finite element modeling is the primary modeling tool, the calibration process uses these models, often developed by different groups, to assess model deficiencies and to update parameters to reconcile test with predictions. Data for two major component tests and the flight vehicle are presented along with the calibration results. For calibration, sensitivity analysis is conducted using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). To reduce the computational burden associated with ANOVA calculations, response surface models are used in lieu of computationally intensive finite element solutions. From the sensitivity studies, parameter importance is assessed as a function of frequency. In addition, the work presents an approach to evaluate the probability that a parameter set exists to reconcile test with analysis. Comparisons of pre-test predictions of frequency response uncertainty bounds with measured data, results from the variance-based sensitivity analysis, and results from component test models with calibrated boundary stiffness models are all presented.

Horta, Lucas G.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Variance components in confocal scanning laser tomography measurements of neuro‐retinal rim area and the effect of repeated measurements on the power to detect loss over time

Abstract Purpose To estimate the variation in measurements of neuro‐retinal rim area (NRA) determined by confocal scanning laser tomography and consequences for clinical follow‐up. Methods Altogether, 24 healthy subjects were randomized on –320 μ m, Moorfields and Standard NRA plane strategies. Additionally, NRA was measured in 32 glaucoma subjects. Variance components for subjects, visits and measurements were estimated with analysis of variance. Sample sizes required to detect a 6.0 × 10 −2 mm 2 NRA change were estimated assuming a significance level of 0.05 and a power of 0.8. Consequences for independent group, and paired comparison design, respectively, were analysed. Further, precision in estimates within subjects over time was investigated. Results The variation of NRA among subjects was considerably larger than the variation among visits and measurements. For glaucoma subjects, the variation among visits and measurements were of the same order but larger than in healthy subjects. It was found that independent group comparisons require inconveniently large sample sizes. Within‐subject paired comparisons over time require sample sizes of below 15 subjects. The estimated variations for glaucoma subjects imply that 54 months of follow‐up is required for detection of change from baseline. Conclusions The variance for subjects is substantial in relation to those for visits and measurements. Cross‐sectional independent group comparisons of levels of NRA are unsuitable, due to considerable subject variation. Levels of NRA differences within subjects between visits can be estimated with acceptable precision. Neuro‐retinal rim area (NRA) measurement can be used for long‐term follow‐up of glaucoma progression.

Sandberg Melin, Camilla↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elliptically-Contoured Tensor-variate Distributions with Application to Image Learning

Statistical analysis of tensor-valued data has largely used the tensor-variate normal (TVN) distribution that may be inadequate for data arising from distributions with heavier or lighter tails. We study a general family of elliptically contoured (EC) TV distributions and derive its characterizations, moments, marginal, and conditional distributions. We describe procedures for maximum likelihood estimation from data that are (1) uncorrelated draws from an EC distribution, (2) from a scale mixture of the TVN distribution, and (3) from an underlying but unknown EC distribution, for which we extend Tyler’s robust estimator. A detailed simulation study highlights the benefits of choosing an EC distribution over the TVN for heavier-tailed data. We develop TV classification rules using discriminant analysis and EC errors and show that they better predict cats and dogs from images in the Animal Faces-HQ dataset than the TVN-based rules. A novel tensor-on-tensor regression and TV analysis of variance (TANOVA) framework under EC errors is also demonstrated to better characterize gender, age, and ethnic origin than the usual TVN-based TANOVA in the celebrated labeled faces of the wild dataset.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1994

Effects of 40Ar and 56Fe ions on retinal photoreceptor cells of the rabbit: implications for manned missions to Mars

Losses of photoreceptor cells (rods) from the retinas of New Zealand white (NZW) rabbits were detectable within 2 years after localized acute irradiation of optic and proximal tissues with > or = 7 Gy of 530 MeV u-1 40Ar ions or > or = 2 Gy of 465 MeV u-1 56Fe ions in the Bragg plateau region of energy deposition. Those limits were determined only from an analysis of variance of dose groups because the shapes of the dose response curves at early post-irradiation times are not known, a concern being addressed by experiments in progress. Losses of photoreceptor cells for the period 0.5-2.5 years post-irradiation, determined by provisional linear regression analysis, were approximately 1.7% Gy-1 and 2.5% Gy-1 for 40Ar and 56Fe ions, respectively.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗
NASA NTRS2002

Left ventricular outflow tract mean systolic acceleration as a surrogate for the slope of the left ventricular end-systolic pressure-volume relationship

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to analyze left ventricular outflow tract systolic acceleration (LVOT(Acc)) during alterations in left ventricular (LV) contractility and LV filling. BACKGROUND: Most indexes described to quantify LV systolic function, such as LV ejection fraction and cardiac output, are dependent on loading conditions. METHODS: In 18 sheep (4 normal, 6 with aortic regurgitation, and 8 with old myocardial infarction), blood flow velocities through the LVOT were recorded using conventional pulsed Doppler. The LVOT(Acc) was calculated as the aortic peak velocity divided by the time to peak flow; LVOT(Acc) was compared with LV maximal elastance (E(m)) acquired by conductance catheter under different loading conditions, including volume and pressure overload during an acute coronary occlusion (n = 10). In addition, a clinically validated lumped-parameter numerical model of the cardiovascular system was used to support our findings. RESULTS: Left ventricular E(m) and LVOT(Acc) decreased during ischemia (1.67 +/- 0.67 mm Hg.ml(-1) before vs. 0.93 +/- 0.41 mm Hg.ml(-1) during acute coronary occlusion [p < 0.05] and 7.9 +/- 3.1 m.s(-2) before vs. 4.4 +/- 1.0 m.s(-2) during coronary occlusion [p < 0.05], respectively). Left ventricular outflow tract systolic acceleration showed a strong linear correlation with LV E(m) (y = 3.84x + 1.87, r = 0.85, p < 0.001). Similar findings were obtained with the numerical modeling, which demonstrated a strong correlation between predicted and actual LV E(m) (predicted = 0.98 [actual] -0.01, r = 0.86). By analysis of variance, there was no statistically significant difference in LVOT(Acc) under different loading conditions. CONCLUSIONS: For a variety of hemodynamic conditions, LVOT(Acc) was linearly related to the LV contractility index LV E(m) and was independent of loading conditions. These findings were consistent with numerical modeling. Thus, this Doppler index may serve as a good noninvasive index of LV contractility.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unbalanced Nested Random Effects Estimation of Variance Components

To investigate the contributing factors of variance in the measurement of an iodine 127 (127I) sample, we implement a nested random effects analysis of variance (ANOVA). Historically, the reported uncertainty on a measurement of 127I has been obtained by methods of forward uncertainty propagation because there is typically only one replicate of a given sample for which to estimate the uncertainty. When samples are processed there are several types of quality control (QC) standards analyzed along-side the unknown samples with two to five replicates for each. Assuming the variance observed in these replicate QC standards is representative of that of the unknown samples, we use these data in a nested random effects ANOVA to estimate the total uncertainty of a measurement. We demonstrate this approach with two sets of measurements from Idaho National Laboratory and compare the results with the forward uncertainty propagation approach. Variance component estimates for the coarsest level of the nesting structure were most imprecise because replicates were most limited at these levels. We find that the results largely agree between forward propagation and ANOVA, and the greatest contributors of variance are due to instrument variation and chemical processing, with human processing being among the smallest contributors. This analysis provides reassurance that the reported uncertainties using forward propagation are reasonable and the process is well controlled. We propose a future designed experiment to increase replicates at the coarsest level of the hierarchy to improve estimates of these variance components.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of secondary gas-phase reactions (SGR) in pyrolysis of carbon feedstocks for anisotropic carbon materials production – 2: Effects of SGR on tars produced from varying ranks of coal

Herein, this work explores the extent to which secondary gas-phase reactions (SGR) in pyrolysis can be used to modify coal tar chemistries from coals of different ranks in favor of improved anisotropy formation in their respective pitches. Pyrolysis was performed on four different coals of varying bituminous rank (Utah Sufco, Wyoming PRB Black Thunder, Illinois #6, and West Virginia Flying Eagle), with SGR temperatures ranging from 800 to 900° C and nominal SGR gas-phase residence times from 1 to 2.5 s. The oxygen content, aliphatic content, and molecular weight distributions of the coal tar samples were measured to indicate the changes with increasing levels of SGR, and microscopy was also used to measure changes in anisotropy formation in the resulting pitch samples. Generally, for all coals tested, increased levels of pyrolysis SGR led to decreased oxygen and aliphatic content, increased molecular weight sizes, and improved anisotropy formation. However, it was clear that the extent of these property changes depended on the chemistry and rank of the starting coal feedstock. Despite the relatively high rank of the Illinois #6 coal, its respective pitch samples performed poorly in improving anisotropy formation, due to its high sulfur content. The PRB, Sufco, and Flying Eagle coals performed better in their anisotropy formation than Illinois #6, depending on their respective coal ranks. Statistical analysis (analysis of variance, ANOVA) performed on the sample characterization data also suggests that SGR temperature is consistently the most dominant and significant effect on the resulting coal products.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS1983

Interannual variability and predictability of 500 mb geopotential heights over the Northern Hemisphere

The interannual variability of monthly mean 500 mb heights in a 15-year sample of observed data is compared to the variance expected from sampling errors associated with high-frequency fluctuations using the analysis of variance approach. The monthly mean 'signal' stands out significantly from the 'noise' over a substantial fraction of the Northern Hemisphere during the winter. The expected spectrum of variance at very low frequencies is assumed to be white at frequencies lower than per (30 days) rather than the per (96 days) cutoff used by Madden. This difference is justified by observing that the effective time between independent samples T(0) is relatively insensitive to changes in the maximum lag over which the local autocorrelation is integrated to calculate T(0). Further non-randomness in the variance of 500 mb heights is evidenced by the correlation between monthly mean height and contemporaneous daily variability.

Shukla, J.↗