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At least 145 records · Page 8

Systems Engineering Programmatic Estimation Using Technology Variance

Unique and innovative system programmatic estimation is conducted using the variance of the packaged technologies. Covariance analysis is performed on the subsystems and components comprising the system of interest. Technological "return" and "variation" parameters are estimated. These parameters are combined with the model error to arrive at a measure of system development stability. The resulting estimates provide valuable information concerning the potential cost growth of the system under development.

Mog, Robert A.↗

Systems Engineering Programmatic Estimation Using Technology Variance

Unique and innovative system programmatic estimation is conducted using the variance of the packaged technologies. Covariance analysis is performed oil the subsystems and components comprising the system of interest. Technological "returns" and "variation" parameters, are estimated. These parameters are combined with the model error to arrive at a measure of system development stability. The resulting estimates provide valuable information concerning the potential cost growth of the system under development.

Mog, Robert A.↗

Automated frequency standard stability data reduction

A design using a medium sized computer, a fiber optic communication link, and a desk top computer to reduce data collected at a remote site for analysis of frequency standard tests is described. Data generated at the Interim Frequency Standards Test Facility is collected on magnetic tape, which is then transported to a Sigma 5 computer. An Allan variance (two sample variance) is then calculated. The Allan variance (sigma vs tau) is then written to a data file in the Sigma 5. A fiber optic communication link between the Sigma 5 and a desk top computer was designed to transmit data in the Sigma 5 file to the desk top computer. A program was written for the desk top computer that will automatically access the data file in the Sigma 5, process the data and provide a data plot.

Knapp, L. J.↗

Data-driven predictive probability density function control of fiber length stochastic distribution shaping in refining process

Pulp is the most important raw material in paper in paper industries, whose Fiber Length Stochastic Distribution (FLSD) shaping directly determines the energy consumption and paper quality of the subsequent papermaking processes. However, the mean and variance are insufficient to describe the output FLSD shaping, which display non-Gaussian distribution properties. Therefore, the traditional control, method based on the mean and variance of fiber length is difficult to control the FLSD shaping effectively. In this paper, a novel data-driven predictive probability density function (PDF) control method is proposed for output FLSD shaping in refining process. Primarily, in order to improve the approximation accuracy of the PDF employing RBF neural network, the parameters (center value and width) of each RBF basis functions are tuned via utilizing iterative learning control (ILC) law, and the corresponding estimations of weights law can be obtained. Secondly, considering that the conventional linear model of weights vector has drawbacks of low accuracy and weak generalization ability, random vector functional link networks (RVFLNs) based data driven nonlinear modelling method is employed to characterize the prediction model between the input variables and weights vector. Finally, in order to reduce the randomness of the output FLSD, a minimum entropy control method under mean constraint is employed to design the predictive PDF controller for the output FLSD shaping with the help of the established nonlinear stochastic distribution model. Both simulations and experiments are given to illustrate the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.

Probability debsity function, Fiber length distrib↗

Fracture toughness of plasma-sprayed thermal barrier ceramics: Influence of processing, microstructure, and thermal aging

Fracture toughness has become one of the dominant design parameters that dictates the selection of materials and their microstructure to obtain durable thermal barrier coatings (TBCs). Much progress has been made in characterizing the fracture toughness of relevant TBC compositions in bulk form, and it has become apparent that this property is significantly affected by process-induced microstructural defects. In this investigation, a systematic study of the influence of coating microstructure on the fracture toughness of atmospheric plasma sprayed (APS) TBCs has been carried out. Yttria partially stabilized zirconia (YSZ) coatings were fabricated under different spray process conditions inducing different levels of porosity and interfacial defects. Fracture toughness was measured on free standing coatings in as-processed and thermally aged conditions using the double torsion technique. Results indicate significant variance in fracture toughness among coatings with different microstructures including changes induced by thermal aging. Comparative studies were also conducted on an alternative TBC composition, Gd 2 Zr 2 O 7 (GDZ), which as anticipated shows significantly lower fracture toughness compared to YSZ. Furthermore, the results from these studies not only point towards a need for process and microstructure optimization for enhanced TBC performance but also a framework for establishing performance metrics for promising new TBC compositions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Structural complexity and primary production resistance are coupled in a temperate forest

The capacity of forests to resist structural change and retain material legacies–the biotic and abiotic resources that persist through disturbance–is crucial to sustaining ecosystem function after disturbance. However, the role of forest structure as both a material legacy and feature supporting carbon (C) cycling stability following disturbance has not been widely investigated. We used a large-scale disturbance manipulation to ask whether legacies of lidar-derived canopy structures drive 3-year primary production responses to disturbance. As part of the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment (FoRTE) in northern Michigan, USA we simulated phloem-disrupting disturbances producing a range of severities and affecting canopy trees of different sizes. We quantified the legacies of forest structure using two approaches: one measuring the change in structure and primary production from pre-to post-disturbance and the second estimating resistance as log transformed ratios of control and treatment values. We found that total aboveground wood net primary production (ANPP w ) was similar across disturbance severities as legacy trees rapidly increased rates of primary production. Experiment-wide, the disturbance had limited effects on change in mean structural complexity values; however, high variance underscored large differences in the magnitude and direction of complexity's response at the plot-scale. Plot-scale structural complexity, but not vegetation area index (VAI), resistance strongly predicted ANPP w resistance while temporal VAI and structural complexity changes did not. We conclude that the presence of material legacies in the form of forest structure may affect primary production stability following disturbance and that how legacies are quantified may affect the interpretation of disturbance response.

lidar—remote sensing↗

Tank Waste LDR Organics Data Summary for Sample-and-Send (Rev.1A)

The presence of organic chemicals regulated under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Land Disposal Restrictions (LDR) adds complexity to treating and disposing of the low activity fraction of Hanford tank waste if a low temperature treatment method such as grouting is used (SRNL-STI-2020-00228). The complexity arises from the fact that the baseline vitrification method is considered by the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) as providing adequate thermal treatment for organics; a status not automatically extended to a lowtemperature process, such as solidifying the waste in a cementitious waste form. In addition, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) LDR program is intended to ensure that wastes are properly treated prior to disposal. Proper treatment makes hazardous waste less harmful to groundwater by reducing the mobility and/or toxicity of the hazardous constituents in the waste. EPA guidance indicates that stabilization/solidification of waste for organics could be considered impermissible dilution under the LDR dilution prohibition. In addition, waste storage activities at Hanford have required transferring and blending waste within the tank system and these activities have potentially altered the concentrations of the hazardous constituents. The LDR dilution prohibition found in 40 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 268.3 states that “… no generator, transporter, handler, or owner or operator of a treatment, storage, or disposal facility shall in any way dilute a restricted waste or the residual from treatment of a restricted waste as a substitute for adequate treatment …”. Hence, if LAW is to be treated using low temperature stabilization (such as cementation), then it is important to demonstrate both how past storage activities have contributed to the removal (by vacuum evaporation), or destruction (by in situ decomposition) of the LDR organics and how future retrieval and waste feed preparation will contribute to their removal (by filtration and ion exchange). Demonstrating these processes helps validate that cementation without additional organic treatment does not necessarily represent impermissible dilution. To aid in implementing cementitious solidification of Low Activity Waste (LAW), WRPS has been developing a regulatory and processing LDR treatment variance strategy termed “Sampleand-Send” that relies, in part, on demonstrating that in situ decomposition reactions along with historic evaporation of tank waste has destroyed or removed most of the LDR organics possibly associated with Hanford Tank Waste (SRNL-STI-2020-00582, SRNL-STI-2021-00453, SRNL-STI-2022-00391). Under the Sample-and-Send concept, Hanford tank waste would be retrieved, processed through a Tank-Side Cesium Removal-like system, and staged as a candidate feed that would then be sampled to confirm the waste acceptance criteria is met for solidification in an LAW cementitious treatment facility. If it can be shown that LDR organics are at concentrations below the waste acceptance criteria (WAC) for cementitious stabilization and have been sufficiently removed (by historic evaporation or by filtration and ion exchange during Cs removal), destroyed (by historic in situ decomposition), or are not soluble in LAW above the WAC then additional organic treatment is not needed prior to creating a cementitious final waste form and the concept of Sample-and-Send would be proposed to establish a non-rulemaking site-specific treatment variance using the specified method of treatment “STABL” to remove sampling requirements of the waste form after treatment. Waste not meeting the WAC could either be routed to the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant for LAW vitrification, or further processed by evaporation or chemical oxidation before solidifying in a cementitious waste form. A key component in implementing the Sample-and-Send strategy is identifying which of the 207 LDR organic compounds associated with the RCRA Part A permit application waste codes for the Double Shell Tanks (DSTs) and Single Shell Tanks (SSTs) and any applicable Underlying Hazardous Constituents (UHCs) from 40 CFR 268.48 should be considered as potentially present and thus subject to regulation. In addition, it is also necessary to understand the solubility volatility, and reactivity of these compounds in LAW to identify which of the potentially present LDR organic compounds are not soluble above regulatory levels or are likely to have been removed by historic evaporation or destroyed by in situ decomposition reactions. If there are potentially present LDR organic compounds that have not been removed or destroyed and are soluble above regulatorily significant concentrations then a treatability variance may be needed for these species to eliminate any concerns pertaining to impermissible dilution. The spreadsheet accompanying this calculation report contains the data and logic computations needed to screen the list of 207 LDR organics associated with Hanford tank waste to identify those potentially present and to indicate which compounds may need to be included in a treatability variance.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The role of time and speed in NASA's SUNLITE program

The SUNLITE program of NASA's LaRC aims to demonstrate lower noise and better frequency stability for continuous-wave (CW) solid-state lasers in the microgravity environment of space. The program will utilize laser-diode-pumped nonplanar-ring oscillators regulated by ultra-stable high-finesse Fabry-Perot Spectrometers to produce light beams with phase rate or frequency variations as low as 3 Hz. SUNLITE will use the period-method (P-method) to measure the phase rate and frequency stability of the lasers. The P-method was chosen because it requires less memory space for the raw data, because frequencies can be analyzed on-line in real-time simply by reciprocating the periods (fi = 1/pi), and because the mean and variance of the frequencies can be calculated as fast or faster than they can be with the fastest fast Fourier transformations. Furthermore, for a given signal-to-noise power ratio, the P-method requires less data and less computer time to extract the noise components. Although the P-method does require fast Time Interval Counters, the Fourier transformation method requires comparably fast Sampling Volt meters. For either method, however, time and computer speed play a critical role.

Hafele, Joseph C.↗

Aerodynamics of the Fuselage

The present report deals with a number of problems, particularly with the interaction of the fuselage with the wing and tail, on the basis of simple calculating method's derived from greatly idealized concepts. For the fuselage alone it affords, in variance with potential theory, a certain frictional lift in yawed flow, which, similar to the lift of a wing of small aspect ratio, is no longer linearly related to the angle of attack. Nevertheless there exists for this frictional lift something like a neutral stability point the position of which on oblong fuselages appears to be associated with the lift increase of the fuselage in proximity to the zero lift, according to the present experiments. The Pitching moments of the fuselage can be determined with comparatively great reliability so far as the flow conditions in the neighborhood of the axis of the fuselage can be approximated if the fuselage were absent, which, in general, is not very difficult. For the unstable contribution of the fuselage to the static longitudinal stability of the airplane it affords comparatively simple formulas, the evaluation of which offers little difficulty. On the engine nacelles there is, in addition a very substantial wing moment contribution induced by the nonuniform distribution of the transverse displacement flow of the nacelle along the wing chord; this also can be represented by a simple formula. A check on a large number of dissimilar aircraft types regarding the unstable fuselage and nacelle moments disclosed an agreement with the wind-tunnel tests, which should be sufficient for practical requirements. The errors remained throughout within the scope of instrumental accuracy.

Multhopp, H.↗

Optimal Solar PV Arrays Integration for Distributed Generation

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems hold great potential for distributed energy generation by installing PV panels on rooftops of residential and commercial buildings. Yet challenges arise along with the variability and non-dispatchability of the PV systems that affect the stability of the grid and the economics of the PV system. This paper investigates the integration of PV arrays for distributed generation applications by identifying a combination of buildings that will maximize solar energy output and minimize system variability. Particularly, we propose mean-variance optimization models to choose suitable rooftops for PV integration based on Markowitz mean-variance portfolio selection model. We further introduce quantity and cardinality constraints to result in a mixed integer quadratic programming problem. Case studies based on real data are presented. An efficient frontier is obtained for sample data that allows decision makers to choose a desired solar energy generation level with a comfortable variability tolerance level. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to show the tradeoffs between solar PV energy generation potential and variability.

Omitaomu, Olufemi A↗

Closure Schemes for Stably Stratified Atmospheric Flows without Turbulence Cutoff

Two recently proposed turbulence closure schemes are compared against the conventional Mellor–Yamada (MY) model for stably stratified atmospheric flows. The Energy- and Flux-Budget (EFB) approach solves the budgets of turbulent momentum and heat fluxes and turbulent kinetic and potential energies. The Cospectral Budget (CSB) approach is formulated in wavenumber space and integrated across all turbulent scales to obtain flow variables in physical space. Unlike the MY model, which is subject to a “critical gradient Richardson number,” both EFB and CSB models allow turbulence to exist at any gradient Richardson number R i and predict a saturation of flux Richardson number ( R f → R fm ) at sufficiently large R i . The CSB approach further predicts the value of R fm and reveals a unique expression linking the Rotta and von Kármán constants. Hence, all constants in the CSB model are nontunable and stability independent. All models agree that the dimensionless sensible heat flux decays with increasing R i . However, the decay rate and subsequent cutoff in the MY model appear abrupt. The MY model further exhibits an abrupt cutoff in the turbulent stress normalized by vertical velocity variance, while the CSB and EFB models display increasing trends. The EFB model produces a rapid increase in the ratio of turbulent potential energy and vertical velocity variance as R fm is approached, suggesting a strong self-preservation mechanism. Vertical anisotropy in the turbulent kinetic energy is parameterized in different ways in MY and EFB, but this consideration is not required in CSB. Differences between EFB and CSB model predictions originate from how the vertical anisotropy is specified in the EFB model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coronal electron stream and Langmuir wave detection inside a propagation channel at 4.3 AU

Observations of an energetic interplanetary electron event associated with the production of Langmuir waves, both of which are identified at 4.3 AU by instruments on the Ulysses spacecraft, are presented in this paper. This electron event propagates inside a well-defined magnetic structure. The existence of this structure is firmly established by joint particle and plasma observations made by Ulysses instruments. Its local estimated radial width is of the order of 2.3 x 10(exp 7) km (0.15 AU). The electron beam is associated with a type III burst observed from Earth at high frequencies and at low frequencies from Ulysses in association with Langmuir waves detected inside the structure. The consistency of local (Ulysses) and remote (Earth) observations in terms of temporal and geometrical considerations establishes that the structure is anchored in the solar corona near the solar active region responisble for the observed type III emission and gives an accurate determination of the injection time for the observed electron beam. Propagation analysis of the electron event is presented. In order to quantify the magnetic field properties, a variance analysis has been performed and is presented in this paper. The analysis establishes that inside the structure the amount of magnetic energy involved in the fluctuations is less than 4% of the total magnetic energy; the minimal variance direction is well defined and in coincidence with the direction of the mean magnetic field. This configuration may produce conditions favorable for scatter free streaming of energetic electrons and/or Langmuir wave production. The results presented show that the magnetic field might play a role in stabilizing the coronal-origin plasma structures and then preserving them to large, approximately 4 AU, distances in the heliosphere.

Buttighoffer, A.↗

Maps of the Magellanic clouds from combined South Pole Telescope and Planck data

Here, we present maps of the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds from combined South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Planck data. Both instruments are designed to make measurements of the cosmic microwave background but are sensitive to any source of millimeter-wave (mm-wave) emission. The Planck satellite observes in nine mm-wave bands, while the SPT data used in this work were taken with the three-band SPT-SZ camera. The SPT-SZ bands correspond closely to three of the nine Planck bands, namely those centered at 1.4, 2.1, and 3.0 mm. The angular resolution of the Planck data in these bands ranges from 5 to 10 arcmin, while the SPT resolution in these bands ranges from 1.0 to 1.7 arcmin. The combined maps take advantage of the high resolution of the SPT data and the long-timescale stability of the space-based Planck observations to deliver high signal-to-noise and robust brightness measurements on scales from the size of the maps down to ~1 arcmin. In each of the three bands, we first calibrate and color-correct the SPT data to match the Planck data, then we use noise estimates from each instrument and knowledge of each instrument's beam, or point-spread function, to make the inverse-variance-weighted combination of the two instruments' data as a function of angular scale. Furthermore, we create maps assuming a range of underlying emission spectra (for the color correction) and at a range of final resolutions. We perform several consistency tests on the combined maps and estimate the expected noise in measurements of features in the maps. Finally, we compare the maps of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) from this work to maps from the Herschel HERITAGE survey, finding general consistency between the datasets. Furthermore, the broad wavelength coverage provides evidence of different emission mechanisms at work in different environments in the LMC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

QTL Mapping of Seed Fatty Acid Contents in Camelina sativa Under Heat Stress

Heat stress alters oil quality in oilseed crops, yet its genetic underpinnings in Camelina sativa remain unclear. This study investigated the genetic basis of heat-induced changes in seed fatty acids using a recombinant inbred line (RIL) population derived from a cross between two camelina varieties, Suneson and Pryzeth. Exposure to high temperature during reproductive growth led to increased proportions of saturated (C16:0, C18:0) and monounsaturated (C18:1) fatty acids, whereas polyunsaturated C18:3, total unsaturated fatty acids (UFA) and the PUFA/MUFA ratio were decreased, suggesting an inhibition of the C18:1 → C18:2 → C18:3 desaturation pathway. A high-density linkage map (4981 bins across 20 chromosomes) was built, and 25 QTLs for fatty acids were detected, with hotspots on chromosomes 1, 9, 12, 13, 16, and 20. A major QTL on chromosome 1 (~ 80 cM) explained the largest variance component for PUFA/MUFA under heat. Three desaturase genes (FAD2, FAD7, FAD8) were located within key QTL intervals, nominating them as candidates for modulating unsaturation under elevated temperature. These results provide a genetic basis for fine mapping and functional validation, supporting future molecular and breeding efforts to stabilize oil quality under warming conditions.

Camelina↗

Wind shear near the ground and aircraft operations.

The variance of wind shear in the first 150-200 m of the atmosphere is a function of the direction of the mean wind relative to the flight path, the zenith angle of the flight path, the standard deviation of the three components of the turbulence velocity vector, the surface friction velocity, the stability properties of the atmospheric boundary layer, and the heights above natural grade of the beginning and end points of the portion of the flight path over which the shear is to be calculated. The results are applied by calculating wind shear for various risks of occurrence assuming wind shear is a Gaussian process, and it is shown that turbulence produces significantly large dispersions in wind shear about the mean wind shear. The results are interpreted in terms of the ICAO interim shear criteria for reporting wind shear in qualitative terms.

Fichtl, G. H.↗

Efficient computation of parameter confidence intervals

An important step in system identification of aircraft is the estimation of stability and control derivatives from flight data along with an assessment of parameter accuracy. When the maximum likelihood estimation technique is used, parameter accuracy is commonly assessed by the Cramer-Rao lower bound. It is known, however, that in some cases the lower bound can be substantially different from the parameter variance. Under these circumstances the Cramer-Rao bounds may be misleading as an accuracy measure. This paper discusses the confidence interval estimation problem based on likelihood ratios, which offers a more general estimate of the error bounds. Four approaches are considered for computing confidence intervals of maximum likelihood parameter estimates. Each approach is applied to real flight data and compared.

Murphy, Patrick C.↗

Low-dimensional Representation of Error Covariance

Ensemble and reduced-rank approaches to prediction and assimilation rely on low-dimensional approximations of the estimation error covariances. Here stability properties of the forecast/analysis cycle for linear, time-independent systems are used to identify factors that cause the steady-state analysis error covariance to admit a low-dimensional representation. A useful measure of forecast/analysis cycle stability is the bound matrix, a function of the dynamics, observation operator and assimilation method. Upper and lower estimates for the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix eigenvalues are derived from the bound matrix. The estimates generalize to time-dependent systems. If much of the steady-state analysis error variance is due to a few dominant modes, the leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix approximate those of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix. The analytical results are illustrated in two numerical examples where the Kalman filter is carried to steady state. The first example uses the dynamics of a generalized advection equation exhibiting nonmodal transient growth. Failure to observe growing modes leads to increased steady-state analysis error variances. Leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix are well approximated by leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix. The second example uses the dynamics of a damped baroclinic wave model. The leading eigenvectors of a lowest-order approximation of the bound matrix are shown to approximate well the leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix.

Tippett, Michael K.↗

Status of input design for aircraft parameter identification

Results are presented on the design of aircraft inputs (i.e. elevator, rudder and aeleron deflection time histories) to identify aircraft stability and control derivatives from flight test data. The problem is first reduced to an optimization problem with differential and integral constraints. The criteria used are either expressed in terms of the Cramer-Rao lower bound on the covariance matrix of the parameter estimates or in terms of the maximum prediction error variance. Both time-domain longitudinal and lateral dynamics of C-8 and Jet Star aircrafts and comparison with doublet type inputs are made.

Mehra, R. K.↗