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NASA NTRS2019

Assessing Reliability of NDE Flaw Detection Using Smaller Number of Demonstration Data Points

The paper provides an engineering analysis approach for assessing reliability of NDE flaw detection using smaller number of demonstration data points. It explores dependence of probability of detection (POD), probability of false positive (POF), on contrast-to-noise ratio, and net decision threshold-to-noise ratio in a simulated data; and draws some generically applicable inferences to devise the approach. ASTM nondestructive evaluation standards provide requirements on signal-to-noise ratio and/or contrast-to-noise ratio in order to provide reliable flaw detection and limit false positive calls. POD analysis of inspection test data results in an estimated flaw size, denoted by 𝑎90/95. This flaw size has 90% POD and minimum 95% confidence. POF is also estimated in the analysis. POD demonstration requires specimens with flaws of known size. In many situations, it is very expensive to produce the large number of flaws required for the POD analysis. In some situations, only real flaws can truly represent the flaws for demonstration. Real flaws of correct size and location in part configuration specimen may be difficult to produce, if not impossible. Here, an engineering analysis approach is devised using simulation to assess reliability of NDE technique when a limited number of flaws are available for demonstration. In this simulation, a technique is considered reliable, if it provides flaw detectability size equal to or better than the theoretical 𝑎90𝑡ℎ used in simulation and also provides a POF less than or equal to a chosen value. The paper uses simulated signal response versus flaw size data to devise the approach. Linear correlation is used between the signal response data and flaw size. POD software mh1823 uses generalized linear model (GLM) in POD analysis after transforming the flaw size and signal response, if needed, using logarithm. Therefore, this approach is in agreement with the linear signal correlation used in mh1823. Using the POD analysis of data, generic conditions on contrast-to-noise ratio and net decision threshold-to-noise ratio are derived for reliable flaw detection. In order to assess technique reliability using the engineering approach, signal response-to-flaw size correlation about the flaw size of concern is needed. In addition, measurement of noise is also needed. If the technique meets the above requirements, assumption of linear signal-to-flaw size correlation and conditions on noise, then the technique can be assessed using this analysis as it fits the underlying POD model used here. The approach is conservative and is designed to provide a larger flaw size compared to the POD approach. Such NDE technique assessment approach, although, not as rigorous as POD, can be cost effective if the larger flaw size can be tolerated. Typically, this is a situation for all quality control NDE inspections. Here, an NDE technique needs to be reliable and 𝑎90/95 is not estimated, but the assessed flaw size is assumed to be larger than the unknown a90 due to conservative factors or margins. Applicability of the approach for assessing reliability of flaw detection in x-ray radiography and 2D imaging in general is also explored.

Koshti, Ajay M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Assessment of Terra MODIS Thermal Emissive Band Calibration Using Cold Targets and Measurements in Lunar Roll Events

Terra MODIS has provided continuous global observations for science research and applications for more than 18 years. The MODIS Thermal emissive bands (TEB) radiometric calibration uses a quadratic function for instrument response. The calibration coefficients are updated using the response of an on-board blackbody (BB) in quarterly warm-up and cool-down (WUCD) events. As instrument degradation and electronic crosstalk of long-wave infrared (LWIR) bands 27 to 30 developed substantial issues, accurate calibration is crucial for a high-quality L1B product. The on-board BB WUCD temperature ranges from 270 K to 315 K and the derived nonlinear response has a relatively large uncertainty for the offset, especially for these LWIR bands, which affects the measurements of low brightness temperature (BT) scenes. In this study, the TEB radiometric calibration impact on the L1B product is assessed using selected cold targets and the measurements during regular lunar rolls. The cold targets include Antarctic Dome Concordia (Dome-C) and deep convective clouds (DCC) for the calibration assessment, focusing on bands 27 to 30. Dome-C area is covered with uniformly-distributed permanent snow, and the atmospheric effect is small and relatively constant. Usually the DCC is treated as an invariant earth target to evaluate the reflective solar band calibration. The DCC can also be treated as a stable target to assess the performance of TEB calibration. During a scheduled lunar observation event with a spacecraft roll maneuver to view the moon through the space view port, the instrument cavity provides a stable reference for calibration assessment. The long-term trending of BT measurements and the relative difference between scan mirror sides and detectors are used for the assessment of the calibration consistency and stability. The comparison of L1B products over the selected targets before and after the calibration coefficients update can be used to assess the impact of a calibration look-up table (LUT) update. This assessment is beneficial for future calibration algorithm and LUT update procedure improvements for enhancing the L1B product quality.

Chang, Tiejun↗
NASA NTRS2019

Quantitative Technology Assessment in Space Mission Analysis

New technologies will need to be developed to create feasible concepts for NASA's ambitious missions of the future, but quantitative assessments of the impacts that technologies have on systems or architectures are sporadic and often inadequate. The Space Mission Analysis Branch at NASA's Langley Research Center is developing a quantitative technology assessment framework to address this issue with a vision of being able to understand the mission and system architecture impacts of technology development activities. A phased approach is being pursued to answer technology needs assessment and technology forecasting questions. First, the integration of subject matter experts, data collection, and data analysis techniques ensures that the framework is accessible and analyzable. Second, systems analysis determines the impact of key technologies from the first phase on systems, architectures, and campaigns. The goal of a quantitative technology assessment framework is to accelerate technology assessments, to improve the accuracy of those assessments, and to provide deeper insights into the impact of new technologies. Keywords: technology assessment, data analysis, systems analysis.

Arney, Dale C.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Guidelines for Assessing the Toxic Hazard of Spacecraft Chemicals and Test Materials

This document describes the criteria and procedural guidelines used by the NASA/JSC Toxicology Office (JSCSTO), to perform toxicological evaluations. The JSCSTO is responsible for conducting toxicological assessments and assigning toxic hazard levels (THLs) for essentially all chemicals and test materials to be used in or transported to the habitable areas of U.S. spacecraft, non‐U.S. spacecraft inhabitaed by U.S. crew members or habitable areas of off‐Earth habitats where U.S. crew members would be present, including chemicals carried by visiting spacecraft(visiting vehicles) to and from the International Space Station (ISS). Biohazard assessments for biological materials used in payload experiments are performed by the NASA Biosafety Review Board. Radioactive materials are assessed by the Space Radiation Analysis Group for radiation hazards; the flammability rating on flammable materials is assessed by the JSC Materials and Processes Branch, ES4. This document will focus on the assessment of chemically‐induced toxicity hazards. The toxicological assessments, together with assessments on radioactive, biological, physical, and flammability hazards, are incorporated into a mission‐specific Hazardous Materials Summary Table (HMST).

Valerie Elizabeth Ryder↗
NASA NTRS2022

SpaceVPX Interoperability Assessment

The existing VMEbus (VersaModular Eurocard bus) International Trade Association (VITA)-78 industry standard, also known as SpaceVPX, is an avionics board- and chassis-level standard derived from the OpenVPX standard as defined in VITA-65. While VITA-65 defines backplane and board-level profiles from COTS vendors to ensure interoperability of products used in developing systems and subsystems, the VITA-78 standard defines SpaceVPX to incorporate fault tolerance features that are required by many spaceflight systems. However, VITA-78 allows so much flexibility that interoperability between modules cannot be assured. This assessment provides guidelines on the use of, and extensions to, the VITA-78 standard to enable avionics interoperability for future NASA missions. The assessment team was comprised of subject matter experts (SMEs) from Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Johnson Space Center (JSC), and Langley Research Center (LaRC). The team included valuable external consulting support from a SME who was a key participant in the development of the VITA-78 standard. The team had extensive collaboration with the NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) High Performance Spaceflight Computing (HPSC) project, specifically in the development of SpaceVPX interconnect findings, observations, and NESC recommendations. To provide an understanding of the breadth of implementations that SpaceVPX must accommodate, multiple NASA use cases were analyzed to assess the requirements for SpaceVPX implementations across a wide range of NASA missions (Appendix C). Applications included crewed missions, science missions, and orbital and surface robotic systems. Product surveys were conducted to assess the level of industry support for SpaceVPX, applications, and the variations in their implementations (Appendix D). In-depth analysis was conducted in the areas of: (a) power management and distribution, (b) form factors and daughtercards, (c) interconnect, and (d) fault tolerance. Leveraging the use cases, product surveys, and SMEs from multiple NASA Centers, these areas were analyzed to determine the range of implementations permitted by the VITA-78 standard and potential interoperability issues. Applicable findings and NESC recommendations were provided for each area. During this assessment, there were multiple opportunities to engage with other agencies to learn about their interest in SpaceVPX, their strategies for implementing SpaceVPX-based systems, and their internal development efforts. These engagements also generated findings and NESC recommendations. Based on this assessment analysis, NESC recommendations were made regarding the feature set and module profiles to support NASA SpaceVPX implementations. This feature set includes restrictions on features in VITA-78, and extensions to the standard. Key recommendations in this area include the use of 10 Gigabit Ethernet and Peripheral Component Interconnect Express (PCIe) as high bandwidth interconnect on the backplane, the retention of SpaceWire interconnect for control functions, and support for 3U (unit) and 6U, form factors for NASA systems. Restrictions were proposed on the usage of user-defined signals to promote interoperability, and specific power managements and distribution schemes for 3U systems. Beyond the technical implementation of SpaceVPX, recommendations were made on areas that warrant further investigation. Primary among these is the recommendation for NASA to collaborate with other space-going agencies and industry to incorporate recommendations into a future ‘dot spec’ of VITA-78. This would ensure wide adoption and availability of the modules that comply with the specification. The assessment includes appendices with candidate module profiles that can be considered as a starting point for this activity, and example systems based on the recommendations. Follow-on studies are recommended for architectures beyond SpaceVPX to address potential enhancements including condensed set of interconnect, software required to implement protocol layers on the interconnect (and other features), alternative power architectures, and system-level testability.

SpaceVPX↗
NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainty in Agricultural Impact Assessment

This chapter considers issues concerning uncertainty associated with modeling and its use within agricultural impact assessments. Information about uncertainty is important for those who develop assessment methods, since that information indicates the need for, and the possibility of, improvement of the methods and databases. Such information also allows one to compare alternative methods. Information about the sources of uncertainties is an aid in prioritizing further work on the impact assessment method. Uncertainty information is also necessary for those who apply assessment methods, e.g., for projecting climate change impacts on agricultural production and for stakeholders who want to use the results as part of a decision-making process (e.g., for adaptation planning). For them, uncertainty information indicates the degree of confidence they can place in the simulated results. Quantification of uncertainty also provides stakeholders with an important guideline for making decisions that are robust across the known uncertainties. Thus, uncertainty information is important for any decision based on impact assessment. Ultimately, we are interested in knowledge about uncertainty so that information can be used to achieve positive outcomes from agricultural modeling and impact assessment.

damage assessment↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Independent Reliability Assessment of the NASA GSFC Laser Transmitter for the LISA Program

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is a partnership between the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA to build a Gravitational Wave (GW) observatory. The observatory, which consists of a three-spacecraft constellation with a nominal separation of 2.5 million km between each spacecraft, provides a tool for scientists to directly detect gravitational waves generated from various astronomical phenomena in a waveband that is not accessible from Earth. NASA is developing laser transmitters as one of the potential US contributions to LISA. The NASA laser design leverages lessons learned from previous flight missions and included the latest technologies in photonics packaging and reliability engineering to ensure a laser lifetime of >16 years covering integration and test through a possible extended mission phase. As part of the laser development process, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) requested support from the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to independently assess the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of the LISA Laser System (LS). The independent assessment included the following tasks: (a) assess the design for weaknesses and suggest improvements to mitigate risks, (b) assess the laser reliability plan for weaknesses and suggest improvements to mitigate risks and improve effectiveness, and (c) assess the current redundancy plan on laser subsystems for weaknesses and suggest improvements to mitigate risks and improve effectiveness. The NESC team comprised of a team of subject matter experts (SMEs) and performed a 12-month review of every aspect of the laser design. We present the assessment findings and the current development progress of the LISA laser to meet the mission requirements with a delivery of a form, fit, and functional TRL6 laser to the LSIA mission by late 2023.

LISA↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Technology Readiness Assessment for Stirling Power Convertor

Stirling-based power conversion system could represent a critical enabling technology for future NASA missions, offering significantly enhanced power efficiency over traditional thermoelectric systems. To ensure the successful infusion of this technology into deep space and planetary surface missions, a rigorous evaluation of its maturity and associated risks is essential. The objective of this Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) is to determine the current technology readiness level (TRL) of the Stirling power convertor and identify key technical risks and challenges associated with its maturation and potential infusion into a targeted flight system. The evaluation process will rigorously follow the NASA TRA procedure: (1) determining the requirements that underpin the design, function, and performance; (2) finding and listing all new technology elements (NTEs) and critical technology elements (CTEs); (3) identifying the level of integration assumed for the assessment; and (4) assessing the TRL for each NTE and CTE. The overall subassembly TRL will then be determined via a roll-up using the “weakest link” criterion, culminating in a final (5) assessment of risks to further progression of maturity. This paper will present the results of a comprehensive technology readiness assessment (TRA) conducted on the Stirling-based dynamic power conversion subassembly, excluding the radioisotope heat source. The paper will also describe a detailed breakdown of the TRL roll-up and a matrix of identified risks and recommended mitigation paths, along with identified key technical risks and challenges to achieve the required long-duration performance. Key Words: Radioisotope Power Conversion, Technology Readiness Assessment

Radioisotope Power Conversion↗
NASA NTRS1972

Technology assessment and citizen action

The importance of citizen participation in the assessment process is discussed, and a system for citizen assessment action is proposed. A national assessment system is outlined. Citizen participation is considered essential in the assessment process, and impediments to effective action taken by citizens are discussed. These impediments are finance, organization and motivation, and information. The establishment of citizens' assessment associations is proposed, whose functioning would be fostered and regulated by the Citizens' Assessment Administration. The organization, functions, and financing of these associations are described. The implications of citizen action are indicated as the extensive use of class action suits, the broad interpretation of associated costs of litigation, and the use of present scientific research as evidence to assert that it is reasonable to conclude that certain consequences are probable to occur in the future.

Mottur, E. R.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Technology and public policy: The process of technology assessment in the Federal Government

Conclusions drawn from research and a series of recommendations for the improvement of the technology assessment process in Federal agencies are presented. The following topics are discussed: (1) who is doing technology assessment; (2) the organization of technology assessments; (3) disciplines and techniques used in technology; (4) analysis of a sample of technology assessment studies: initiation, disciplines, techniques, costs, scope, purpose, and utilization; (5) gaps and overlaps in governmental assessment of nine major technologies; (6) prerequisites for further improvement of technology assessment; and (7) recommendations.

Coates, V. T.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Ohio River main stem study - The role of geographic information systems and remote sensing in flood damage assessments

The Pittsburgh District, Corps of Engineers, has conducted feasibility analyses of various procedures for performing flood damage assessments along the main stem of the Ohio River. Procedures using traditional, although highly automated, techniques and those based on geographic information systems have been evaluated at a test site, the City of New Martinsville, Wetzel County, WV. The flood damage assessments of the test site developed from an automated, conventional structure-by-structure appraisal served as the ground truth data set. A geographic information system was developed for the test site which includes data on hydraulic reach, ground and reference flood elevations, and land use/cover. Damage assessments were made using land use mapping developed from an exhaustive field inspection of each tax parcel. This ground truth condition was considered to provide the best comparison of flood damages to the conventional approach. Also, four land use/cover data sets were developed from Thematic Mapper Simulator (TMS) and Landsat-4 Thematic Mapper (TM) data. One of these was also used to develop a damage assessment of the test site. This paper presents the comparative absolute and relative accuracies of land use/cover mapping and flood damage assessments, and the recommended role of geographic information systems aided by remote sensing for conducting flood damage assessments and updates along the main stem of the Ohio River.

Edwardo, H. A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Independent Orbiter Assessment (IOA): CIL issues resolution report, volume 1

The results of the Independent Orbiter Assessment (IOA) of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Critical Items List (CIL) are presented. This report contains IOA assessment worksheets showing resolution of outstanding IOA CIL issues that were summarized in the IOA FMEA/CIL Assessment Interim Report, dated 9 March 1988. Each assessment worksheet has been updated with CIL issue resolution and rationale. The NASA and Prime Contractor post 51-L FMEA/CIL documentation assessed is believed to be technically accurate and complete. No assessment issues remain that has safety implications. Volume 1 contain worksheets for the following sybsystems: Landing and Deceleration Subsystem; Purge, Vent and Drain Subsystem; Active Thermal Control and Life Support Systems; Crew Equipment Subsystem; Instrumentation Subsystem; Data Processing Subsystem; Atmospheric Revitalization Pressure Control Subsystem; Hydraulics and Water Spray Boiler Subsystem; and Mechanical Actuation Subsystem.

Urbanowicz, Kenneth J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Denver TMA assessment

This report describes the assessment of the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) conducted at the Denver Center and TRACON, January 11-February 5, 1993. The assessment addressed the effectiveness of TMA for supporting various traffic management activities. At the Center, traffic management coordinators (TMC's) shadowed traffic operations, using TMA to make metering time and internal release decisions. At the TRACON, TMC's accessed TMA in an advisory mode for different planning activities such as staffing, distributing the traffic load, and changing the airport acceptance rate. These different opportunities for assessing TMA provide insight into TMA as a potential communication aid and planning tool. Findings from this assessment indicate that TMA can be used to support traffic management planning and decisions. TMC's at the center were able to use information provided by TMA to determine metering times as well as internal release times. At the TRACON, TMA supported decisions on airport configuration, airport acceptance rate, load distribution, proactive coordination with the center, and staffing. While findings of TMA use are generally positive, it must be kept in mind that this assessment is a snapshot in time. Not all TMA capabilities were assessed, nor were TMC's fully trained and knowledgeable on all features. Feature use will continue to evolve and strategies emerge as the TMC's gain experience with TMA over a variety of traffic situations and their understanding of TMA capabilities broadens with continued training.

Harwood, Kelly↗
NASA NTRS1999

Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region

The objective of the research is to derive an assessment of the potential climate change impacts on a global city - in this case the 31 county region that comprises the New York City metropolitan area. This study comprises one of the regional components that contribute to the ongoing U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change and is an application of state-of-the-art climate change science to a set of linked sectoral assessment analyses for the Metro East Coast (MEC) region. We illustrate how three interacting elements of global cities react and respond to climate variability and change with a broad conceptual model. These elements include: people (e.g., socio- demographic conditions), place (e.g., physical systems), and pulse (e.g., decision-making and economic activities). The model assumes that a comprehensive assessment of potential climate change can be derived from examining the impacts within each of these elements and at their intersections. Thus, the assessment attempts to determine the within-element and the inter-element effects. Five interacting sector studies representing the three intersecting elements are evaluated. They include the Coastal Zone, Infrastructure, Water Supply, Public Health, and Institutional Decision-making. Each study assesses potential climate change impacts on the sector and on the intersecting elements, through the analysis of the following parts: 1. Current conditions of sector in the region; 2. Lessons and evidence derived from past climate variability; 3. Scenario predictions affecting sector; potential impacts of scenario predictions; 4. Knowledge/information gaps and critical issues including identification of additional research questions, effectiveness of modeling efforts, equity of impacts, potential non-local interactions, and policy recommendations; and 5. Identification of coping strategies - i.e., resilience building, mitigation strategies, new technologies, education that affects decision-making, and better preparedness for contingencies.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗
NASA NTRS2001

Use of System Safety Risk Assessments for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM)

This paper discusses the System Safety approach used to assess risk for the Space Shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). Previous to the first RSRM flight in the fall of 1988, all systems were analyzed extensively to assure that hazards were identified, assessed and that the baseline risk was understood and appropriately communicated. Since the original RSRM baseline was established, Thiokol and NASA have implemented a number of initiatives that have further improved the RSRM. The robust design, completion of rigorous testing and flight success of the RSRM has resulted in a wise reluctance to make changes. One of the primary assessments required to accompany the documentation of each proposed change and aid in the decision making process is a risk assessment. Documentation supporting proposed changes, including the risk assessments from System Safety, are reviewed and assessed by Thiokol and NASA technical management. After thorough consideration, approved changes are implemented adding improvements to and reducing risk of the Space Shuttle RSRM.

Greenhalgh, Phillip O.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) Update

The Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) has developed a flexible systems analysis framework to identify long-term technology needs, quantify payoffs for technology investments, and assess the progress of ASTP-sponsored technology programs in the hypersonics area. For this, ITAC has assembled an experienced team representing a broad sector of the aerospace community and developed a systematic assessment process complete with supporting tools. Concepts for transportation systems are selected based on relevance to the ASTP and integrated concept models (ICM) of these concepts are developed. Key technologies of interest are identified and projections are made of their characteristics with respect to their impacts on key aspects of the specific concepts of interest. Both the models and technology projections are then fed into the ITAC's probabilistic systems analysis framework in ModelCenter. This framework permits rapid sensitivity analysis, single point design assessment, and a full probabilistic assessment of each concept with respect to both embedded and enhancing technologies. Probabilistic outputs are weighed against metrics of interest to ASTP using a multivariate decision making process to provide inputs for technology prioritization within the ASTP. ITAC program is currently finishing the assessment of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO), rocket-based combined cycle (RBCC) concept and a TSTO turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC) concept developed by the team with inputs from NASA. A baseline all rocket TSTO concept is also being developed for comparison. Boeing has recently submitted a performance model for their Flexible Aerospace System Solution for Tomorrow (FASST) concept and the ISAT program will provide inputs for a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) TBCC based concept in the near-term. Both of these latter concepts will be analyzed within the ITAC framework over the summer. This paper provides a status update of the ITAC program.

Taylor, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

TOPEX Radar Altimeter Engineering Assessment Report Update: Side B Turn-On to January 1, 2004

This is the eleventh in a series of TOPEX Radar Engineering Assessment Reports, The initial TOPEX Radar Altimeter Engineering Assessment Report, in February 1994, presented performance results for the NASA Radar Altimeter on the TOPEX/POSEIDON spacecraft, from the time of its launch in August 1992 to February 1994. Since the time of that initial report and prior to this report, there have been nine interim supplemental Engineering Assessment Reports, issued in March 1995, May 1996, March 1997, June 1998, August 1999, September 2000, June 2001, March 2002 and again in May 2003.The sixth supplement in September 2000 was the first assessment report that addressed Side B performance, and presented the altimeter performance from the turn-on of Side B until the end of calendar year 1999. This report extends the performance assessment of Side B to the end of calendar year 2003 and includes the performance assessment of Jason-1, the TOPEX follow-on mission, launched on December 7, 2001.

Hancock, David W., III↗
NASA NTRS2006

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

Rhatigan, Jennifer↗