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Global model of atmospheric temperature, chemical composition and density for altitudes from 25 to 1000 km, using satellite drag determined density values
The aerodynamic performance of a vehicle designed to execute an aerogravity assisted maneuver, which combines a gravitational turn with a low-drag atmosphere pass, is examined. The advantage of the aerogravity assisted maneuver, as opposed to a more traditional gravity-assist trajectory, is that, through the use of a controlled atmospheric flight, nearly any deflection angle around a gravitating body can be realized. This holds the promise of providing extremely large values of Delta V. The success of such a maneuver depends on being able to design a vehicle which can execute sustained atmospheric flight at Mach numbers in the range of 50 - 100 with minimal drag losses. Some simple modeling is used to demonstrate design rules for the design of such vehicles, and to estimate the deterioration of their performance during the flight. Two sample aerogravity-assisted maneuvers are detailed, including a close solar approach requiring modest Delta V, and a sprint mission to Pluto.
Mars missions often employ aerobraking upon arrival at Mars as a low-mass method to gradually reduce the orbit period from a high-altitude, highly elliptical insertion orbit to the final science orbit. Two recent missions that made use of aerobraking were Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Odyssey. Both spacecraft had solar arrays as the main aerobraking surface area. Aerobraking produces a high heat load on the solar arrays, which have a large surface area exposed to the airflow and relatively low mass. To accurately model the complex behavior during aerobraking, the thermal analysis must be tightly coupled to the flight mechanics, aerodynamics, and atmospheric modeling efforts being performed during operations. To properly represent the temperatures prior to and during the drag pass, the model must include the orbital solar and planetary heat fluxes. The correlation of the thermal model to flight data allows a validation of the modeling process, as well as information on what processes dominate the thermal behavior. This paper describes the thermal modeling method that was developed for this purpose, as well as correlation for two flight missions, and a discussion of improvements to the methodology.
The middle atmosphere is an important component of the climate system, primarily because of the radiative forcing of ozone. Middle atmospheric ozone can change, over long times, because of changes in the abundance of anthropogenic pollutants which catalytically destroy it, and because of the temperature sensitivity of kinetic reaction rates. There is thus a complex interaction between ozone, involving chemical and climatic mechanisms. One question of interest is how ozone will change over the next decades , as the "greenhouse-gas cooling" of the middle atmosphere increases but the concentrations of chlorine species decreases (because of policy changes). concerns the climate biases in current middle atmosphere-climate models, especially their ability to simulate the correct seasonal cycle at high latitudes, and the existence of temperature biases in the global mean. A major obstacle when addressing this question This paper will present a summary of recent results from the "GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC" (GRIPS) initiative. A set of middle atmosphere-climate models has been compared, identifying common biases. Mechanisms for these biases are being studied in some detail, including off-line assessments of the radiation transfer codes and coordinated studies of the impacts of gravity wave drag due to sub-grid-scale processes. ensemble of models will be presented, along with numerical experiments undertaken with one or more models, designed to investigate the mechanisms at work in the atmosphere. The discussion will focus on dynamical and radiative mechanisms in the current climate, but implications for coupled ozone chemistry and the future climate will be assessed.
The ISS GNC system was updated recently with a new software release that provides onboard state determination capability. Prior to this release, only the Russian segment maintained and propagated the onboard state, which was periodically updated through Russian ground tracking. The new software gives the US segment the capability for maintaining the onboard state, and includes new GPS and state vector propagation capabilities. Part of this software package is an atmospheric density model based on the Babb-Mueller algorithm. Babb-Mueller efficiently mimics a full analytical density model, such as the Jacchia model. While lacchia is very robust and is used in the Mission Control Center, it is too computationally intensive for use onboard. Thus, Babb-Mueller was chosen as an alternative. The onboard model depends on a set of calibration coefficients that produce a curve fit to the lacchia model. The ISS GNC system only maintains one set of coefficients onboard, so a new set must be uplinked by controllers when the atmospheric conditions change. The onboard density model provides a real-time density value, which is used to calculate the drag experienced by the ISS. This drag value is then incorporated into the onboard propagation of the state vector. The propagation of the state vector, and therefore operation of the BabbMueller algorithm, will be most critical when GPS updates and secondary state vector sources fail. When GPS is active, the onboard state vector will be updated every ten seconds, so the propagation error is irrelevant. When GPS is inactive, the state vector must be updated at least every 24 hours, based on current protocol. Therefore, the Babb-Mueller coefficients must be accurate enough to fulfill the state vector accuracy requirements for at least one day. A ground operations concept was needed in order to manage both the on board Babb-Mueller density model and the onboard state quality. The Babb-Mueller coefficients can be determined operationally in two ways. The first method is to calibrate the coefficients in real-time, where a set of custom coefficients is generated for the real-time atmospheric conditions. The second approach is to generate pre-canned sets of coefficients that encompass the expected atmospheric conditions over the lifetime of the vehicle. These predetermined sets are known as occurrences. Even though a particular occurrence will not match the true atmospheric conditions, the error will be constrained by limiting the breadth of each occurrence. Both methods were investigated and the advantages and disadvantages of each were considered. The choice between these implementations was a trade-off between the additional accuracy of the real-time calibration and the simpler development for the approach using occurrences. The operations concept for the frequency of updates was also explored, and depends on the deviation in solar flux that still achieves the necessary accuracy of the coefficients. This was determined based on historical solar flux trends. This analysis resulted in an accurate and reliable implementation of the Babb-Mueller coefficients and how flight controllers use them during realtime operations.
Prediction of uncontrolled satellite reentry time and trajectory are essential to avoid damages to human being and properties over land. Reentry time and trajectory are largely controlled by aerodynamic drag and mass neutral density below 200 km. In this paper, using a numerical model of the whole atmosphere, WACCM‐X, and a Precision Orbital Determination software, we demonstrate the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009, during the deep solar minimum of 2009, may cause 0.2–0.3 day of variation in reentry time. The SSW can alter the mass density and composition mixing ratio in the lower thermosphere below 200 km through changed wave forcing and general circulation in the lower thermosphere. This is comparable to the effect of a 2‐SFU (Solar Flux Unit) solar radiance variation on the neutral density. 0.1 day of reentry time uncertainty corresponds to a global shift in impact location, that is, thousands of kilometers distance. For comparison, a major SSW during solar maximum contributes little to reentry time variation, which is predominantly controlled by the solar and geomagnetic forcing. We suggest a few proxies such as O/N 2 in the lower thermosphere or mean meridional wind to account for the lower atmosphere impacts in an operational model. This needs to be investigated in rigorous future work.
A full-wave propagation model was developed that describes the propagation of gravity waves from the Earth's surface to the upper boundary, which can be placed anywhere between 150 and 500 km altitude. The model includes a realistic background atmosphere, and includes the effects of mean horizontal winds and their vertical shears, mean vertical temperature gradients, the eddy and molecular diffusion of heat and momentum, and the effects of ion-drag. This model solves five coupled second-order differential equations (continuity, momentum, and energy) in the vertical coordinate to derive the perturbation variables u', v', w' (horizontal and vertical velocity components), T' (temperature) and p' (pressure). The upper boundary can be automatically selected based on tests using the radiation condition at the upper boundary, wherein the height is increased until the wave is experiencing severe dissipation at the upper boundary, ensuring that substantial absorption occurs for any waves reflected from the upper boundary. The determination of wave amplitude is a key requirement of wave energetics. Therefore, the fullwave model has been applied to airglow observations in order to determine wave amplitudes as a function of altitude. This was accomplished by using the full-wave model output to drive a chemistry perturbation module that describes minor species perturbations and the resulting airglow perturbations. The full-wave output was multiplied by an altitude-independent factor such that the modeled and observed relative airglow intensity perturbations were equal. The effects of mean winds were included in these studies, and found to be the most important model input affecting the calculations (being more important than the choice of eddy diffusion profiles and chemical kinetic coefficients). In one study (Hickey et al., 1997a) these winds could not be well estimated from the measurements, whereas in the second study (Hickey et al.,1997b) the mean were well defined with a sodium wind-temperature lidar.
TRAP/SEE is a PC-based computer code with a user-friendly interface which predicts the ionizing radiation exposure of spacecraft having orbits in the Earth's trapped radiation belts. The code incorporates the standard AP8 and AE8 trapped proton and electron models but also allows application of an improved database interpolation method. The code treats low-Earth as well as highly-elliptical Earth orbits, taking into account trajectory perturbations due to gravitational forces from the Moon and Sun, atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure. Orbit-average spectra, peak spectra per orbit, and instantaneous spectra at points along the orbit trajectory are calculated. Described in this report are the features, models, model limitations and uncertainties, input and output descriptions, and example calculations and applications for the TRAP/SEE code.
A new version of the Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) model has been developed. This report fully characterizes the new model. IAT is designed to model heat release into the atmosphere that contains contaminated particles. The heat release forms a buoyant puff or plume. Buoyancy is quickly dissipated in 10's to 100's of seconds through drag and entrainment of ambient air. The final location of contaminant particles in the atmosphere after dissipation of abnormal heat is an important input to long term transportation codes such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) code. Ultimately the settling of contaminants after long term transport provides a basis for estimating health consequences. In comparison to the old version, the new model includes explicit simulation of particles, newly formulated equations of motion for a rising puff, and a new plume model. The plume model releases many instances of a single puff along a single trajectory in a way that balances energy released over a longer period than would be appropriate for a single puff. The puff model has additions for vorticity, turbulence, virtual mass, drag, and entrainment. The particle model leads to direct interfacing between IAT and the long-term transport code HYSPLIT. Previously, particle locations were given a pattern based on IAT's puff trajectory with no particle simulation. Now, particles are explicitly simulated, and 3-D spatial distributions of particles are output based on final positions. Ballistic particles are thrown outward at high velocity from explosive events and tend to hit the ground before the end of the simulation. Non-ballistic particles tend to get pulled into the rising puff s ring of vorticity with some escaping to ambient conditions as buoyant energy dissipates. A new model verification and validation effort was made for the new plume model. The Wallops Island Solid Rocket Propellant (SRP) fire plume was extracted to a 3-D transient dataset. After calibration, the model performs better than previous single puff attempts. Even so, error levels in the process used to estimate location and ambient weather conditions approach 30%. This leads to the conclusion that unplanned photogrammetry evaluations of the IAT model are useful but not sufficiently accurate to quantify model parameters. Like previous attempts, the vertical motion entrainment parameters come out much too high in comparison to values for other studies in the literature. It is suspected that a new model of shear entrainment would alleviate this problem. Unfortunately, IAT already has more calibration parameters than the data comparisons thus far can resolve with statistical certainty. This underscores the need to verify and validate the IAT model using detailed CFD studies that allow ideal statistical comparison with the IAT model for hundreds of cases. Even so, validation by comparison to carefully planned experiments (i.e. with acceptable error levels) is also necessary because the dynamics of entrainment are at a sub-grid level for CFD. Though better validation and verification are most important, many new enhancements are still envisioned for future IAT development. These include particle rain out due to condensation and agglomeration of water, direct connection to the North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather dataset, dynamic weather conditions, including ambient particle entrainment into the puff, and detrainment at the puff to ambient mixing interface. In general, including detailed aerosol dynamics is the greatest coming challenge which will require an entire new sub-model in IAT. This is very important if contaminant particles change in such a way that they increase or decrease in their potential harm to the environment.
The paper presents analytical descriptions of crater growth and numerical calculations of aerodynamic drag to evaluate the possible effects of drag on impact crater ejecta emplacement on Mars. The critical particle size below which ejecta deposition is restricted in range increases with crater size; models of ejecta trajectories in the current Martian atmosphere under hydrostatic equilibrium reveal critical particle diameters ranging from 0.4 to 20 cm, noting that ejecta approaching the critical particle size may impact with crater radius of the excavation crater rim. Ejecta larger than the critical particle size are undecelerated and form secondary impact craters modified by the later arriving decelerated ejecta cloud; thus, ejecta emplacement will be multiphased, but the process depends on the ejecta size distribution.
The Chandler wobble of the earth's rotation has a period near 14 months and sets up the 0.5 cm amplitude pole tide in the deep oceans, However, the pole tide is anomalously large in the North Sea, where the amplitude increases sharply up to 3 cm along the continental coast. It is shown here that the sea levels are well correlated with winds at the pole tide frequency. The Princeton Ocean Model is used to investigate the response of the North Sea to wind forcing. The barotropic numerical ocean model depicts realistic coastlines and bathymetry at 5 ft x 5 ft resolution, with 97 x 73 grid points. The monthly mean wind fields for the 40-year period (1958-1997) from the National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis were used to force the model. The winds were converted to stress with a neutral drag coefficient that varied linearly with windspeed (instead of using the NCEP windstress). A 5-day simulation was made for each month until the resulting flow regime came into equilibrium, and model water levels at various station locations were saved for comparison with tidal-gauge observed sea levels from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). The comparison is made for 10 North Sea stations with high quality tide gauge data. We find: (1) good agreement in annual and semi-annual phases and in the trend of amplitude w.r.t. latitude; (2) more importantly for this study, the model-predicted and observed non-seasonal sea level variations show a very significant temporal correlation as well as spectral coherence. However, a large amplitude difference exists between the two sets -- the overall amplitude variability of the observed is generally a factor of 2-3 larger than the model prediction (this same phenomenon has been reported in ocean circulation studies, although the cause is not yet clear.) Our results indicate that the wind forcing is the main cause of the observed large pole tide in the North Sea.
Direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) calculations of rarefied flows about entry bodies typically employ a fixed surface temperature or a radiative-equilibrium energy balance to compute that temperature. Such boundary conditions neglect any effects of heat capacitance and heat conduction in the spacecraft heat shield and, therefore, provide an upper bound for the surface temperature. Such calculations also neglect pyrolysis from the heat shield which can be significant for a high-energy incident flow at very low densities. Accurate prediction of both heating and aerodynamic forces requires including pyrolysis and surface heat transfer in the models for gas-surface interaction employed in DSMC methods. Although these physical models have long appeared in various continuum flow calculation codes, they have only recently appeared in DSMC codes which are required to simulate rarefied flows during entry at high altitudes. In the current implementation, routines from the widely distributed Charring Material Thermal Response and Ablation (CMA) program are coupled into a DSMC code to calculate the one-dimensional heat transfer into the carbon phenolic heat shield at each point on a vehicle surface. Temperature-dependent material properties, surface re-radiation, and in-depth pyrolysis were included in the calculation, but surface ablation was neglected. Sample calculations for entry of the Galileo probe into the atmosphere of Jupiter demonstrate that including pyrolysis in the model leads to significant differences in predicted aerodynamics. Granted, the drag coefficient does not depend strongly on the surface temperature which can itself be significantly below the radiative equilibrium value during entry. However, the surface mass flux due to pyrolysis of the material is significant once the probe drops to altitudes characterized by transition flow. This leads to a noticeable increase in drag and a decrease in heating compared to a body without pyrolysis.
Orbital debris poses a growing risk for spacecraft operations. This risk has most often been measured by proxies, like the number of debris or expected collisions, but few have attempted quantify the consequences of orbital debris or the costs and benefits of different methods to address the problem. This has made it difficult to assess the trade-offs and relative value among proposed actions for the mitigation, tracking, and remediation of debris. In March of 2023, the NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) took a step toward quantifying these relative values when we released Cost and Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Remediation. Since that time, OTPS has continued to build on this work. We have increased the fidelity of our risk model. For example, we added an ensemble of risk models that use varying assumptions of debris populations and lethality, included debris as small as 1mm, and incorporated atmospheric drag to naturally deorbit debris. We have also expanded our cost-benefit calculations to include action that mitigate and track debris, both large and small. The analysis has several important findings regarding the conditions under which debris remediation is more cost-effective than mitigation and tracking, the value of increased shielding of spacecraft and faster timelines for post-mission disposal, and how changes in the portfolio have interdependent effects. This presentation summarizes the body of work, with a particular focus on the risks and benefits to the global spacecraft population.
A frictionless adiabatic model is used to study the growth of random vortices in an atmosphere with buoyant instability and vertical wind shear, taking account of the effects of axial drag, heat transfer and precipitation-induced downdrafts. It is found that downdrafts of tornadic magnitude may occur in negatively buoyant columns. The radial-inflow velocity required to maintain a given maximum tangential velocity in a tornado is determined by using a turbulent vortex model. A tornado model which involves a rotating parent cloud as well as buoyancy and precipitation effects is also discussed.
Satellite lifetime predictions are critically dependent on the ability to forecast future solar and geomagnetic activity. These quantities are inputs to the atmospheric model with which values of atmospheric density are computed along a projected orbital path. Density values are combined with the predicted ballistic coefficient timeline to compute drag and predict decay histories. The major uncertainty in making predictions that pertain to the time periods that are years in the future is in the solar and geomagnetic activity projections, although the ballistic coefficient is also frequently in doubt. The study concludes that while present density models are adequate for planning, the inputs to them, particularly solar/geomagnetic activity indices, are unreliable.
A high-precision radiometric satellite tracking system, Doppler Orbitography and Radio-positioning Integrated by Satellite system (DORIS), has recently been developed by the French space agency, Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES). DORIS was designed to provide tracking support for missions such as the joint United States/French TOPEX/Poseidon. As part of the flight testing process, a DORIS package was flown on the French SPOT 2 satellite. A substantial quantity of geodetic quality tracking data was obtained on SPOT 2 from an extensive international DORIS tracking network. These data were analyzed to assess their accuracy and to evaluate the gravitational modeling enhancements provided by these data in combination with the Goddard Earth Model-T3 (GEM-T3) gravitational model. These observations have noise levels of 0.4 to 0.5 mm/s, with few residual systematic effects. Although the SPOT 2 satellite experiences high atmospheric drag forces, the precision and global coverage of the DORIS tracking data have enabled more extensive orbit parameterization to mitigate these effects. As a result, the SPOT 2 orbital errors have been reduced to an estimated radial accuracy in the 10-20 cm RMS range. The addition of these data, which encompass many regions heretofore lacking in precision satellite tracking, has significantly improved GEM-T3 and allowed greatly improved orbit accuracies for Sun-synchronous satellites like SPOT 2 (such as ERS 1 and EOS). Comparison of the ensuing gravity model with other contemporary fields (GRIM-4C2, TEG2B, and OSU91A) provides a means to assess the current state of knowledge of the Earth's gravity field. Thus, the DORIS experiment on SPOT 2 has provided a strong basis for evaluating this new orbit tracking technology and has demonstrated the important contribution of the DORIS network to the success of the TOPEX/Poseidon mission.
An assumption inherent to most models of dust-driven winds from cool, evolved stars is that the radiative and collisional drag forces acting on an individual dust grain are in balance throughout the flow. We have checked the validity of this supposition of 'complete momentum coupling' by comparing the grain motion obtained from such a model with that derived from solution of the full grain equation of motion. For physical conditions typical of the circumstellar envelopes of oxygen-rich red giants, we find that silicate grains with initial radii smaller than about 5 x 10 exp -6 cm decouple from the ambient gas near the base of the outflow. The implications of these results for models of dust-driven mass loss from late-type giants and supergiants are discussed.
Studies of interplanetary and interstellar dust can provide significant information on the evolution of the solar system or stars, respectively. However, for reliable analysis it is crucial to know how the particles have been modified during reentry (in the case of interplanetary dust particles, or [DP's) and impact into the capture medium. In the case of stratospheric capture, particles will be heated by atmospheric drag. Subsequent capture of the particles will result in heating, ablation, accretion of the capture medium and possible fragmentation. Modeling of these processes is a useful way of assessing their effects on the interpretation of the compositional data for these particles. Previous work on reentry heating has shown that heat diffusion alone cannot adequately account for temperature gradients observed in IDP's. In fact, for any reasonable thermal parameters, calculations show the particles to be nearly isothermal. Here we extend those studies to include phase transitions. These preliminary results are promising and show a significant temperature gradient for a 100 micron (diameter) particle. The actual capture of the particles in silica aerogel is being modeled using a comprehensive shock hydrodynamic code (called CTH). Various options of this code were investigated to attempt to make the most appropriate choice of methods of impact, equations of state, and processes of energy transfer from capture material to particle. The initial calculations with the code used only 'reasonable' estimates for the physical parameters of silica aerogel. Through the literature searches and personal contacts with the knowledgeable scientists, the best possible mechanical and thermal data have been made available for these computations.