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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

OSIRIS-REx Conjunction Screenings: Earth Gravity Assist and Earth Return Analysis and Results

The NASA OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return mission performed an Earth gravity assist on September 22, 2017, and returned to Earth to drop off the sample on September 24, 2023. In each case, the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team screened the OSIRIS-REx trajectories against the satellite catalog in search of high-risk close approaches. This paper describes the preparation for collision avoidance and screening results, along with lessons learned, providing a baseline for support of future missions in this category, particularly as space traffic around the Earth and in cis-lunar space continues to rapidly expand.

Dolan Highsmith↗

NASA NTRS1986

The physical and empirical basis for a specific clear-air turbulence risk index

The fundamental emphasis of this research was to develop a technique which would be a significant improvement over those currently used for flight planning to avoid clear air turbulence (CAT). The technique should, ideally, be both quantitative in determining potential intensity and specific in locating regions of relatively high risk. Furthermore, it should not rely on specialized data but be functional using the currently available rawinsonde observation (raob) system. Encouraging results documented in an earlier investigation were considered compelling enough to warrant a closer look into the possibilities of a Specific Clear Air Turbulence Risk (SCATR) index approach to the clear air turbulence problem. Unlike that research, which considered sustained periods of flight in light to moderate clear air turbulence, this study focuses on several cases of documented severe CAT. Results of these case studies suggest that a SCATR index is not an unrealizable goal and that uses of such an index, event in its current prototype level of development, are also apparent.

Keller, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Institutionalizing Lessons Learned

The NASA Integrated Action Team (NIAT) was formed by the NASA Administrator in March 2000. The purpose of this team was to identify the actions that NASA must take to address systemic findings reported in 4 different anomaly investigations. Team membership represented senior managers from all the field centers and NASA Headquarters. NIAT report addressed 165 findings and developed 17 action plans that are described in five themes: people and teams, technology, risk, formulation rigor, and communications. The NIAT actions present a systems solution for strengthening formulation and implementation of programs and improving the environment for their support. NIAT results included: enhancing success by avoiding failures that could have been prevented through good planning and sound practice; ensuring that prudent risks do not compromise safety; and ensuring that mission risks are objectively assessed, appropriately mitigated and consciously accepted by the program team and customers. Definitions of Faster, Better, Cheaper and Success Criteria were also developed and included as part of the NIAT report. As a result of the NIAT report, program and project management process changes were incorporated into NASA's quality system documentation, including NPG 7120.513, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements. This paper describes the NIAT results and the resulting updates to NPG 7120.5 that keep this program and project management description a living process.

McBrayer, Robert O.↗

DOE OSTI2026

A review of United States energy-only generator interconnection service policy and considerations for reform

Grid interconnection has emerged as a significant obstacle to the development of new electricity resources. There is growing interest in energy-only interconnection, which is an interconnection service option meant to allow the interconnection of new generators without ensuring their energy deliverability during all hours through the transmission system to customers. This approach potentially avoids upfront congestion-related transmission upgrades but could increase curtailment risk. Interest in energy-only interconnection is shaped by incomplete understanding of how interconnection policy functions in different jurisdictions, a knowledge gap that makes it difficult to determine how energy-only interconnection might be better used or re-designed. In this paper, we provide a regulatory review of energy-only interconnection in U.S. interconnection policy and practice, identifying jurisdictions in which rules are close to -or farther from-the theoretical concept of energy-only interconnection service. We find substantial jurisdictional differences in how energy-only interconnection is implemented, driven by differences in resource adequacy frameworks, real-time transmission operations, and state-level procurement practices. U.S. regulators have preferred local jurisdictional flexibility over federal prescription of interconnection study methods and procedures, which also contributes to differences among regions. Such findings raise fundamental questions about whether competition policies in electricity markets should extend beyond spot energy markets and into more prescriptive guidelines around interconnection rules and market entry. This paper sheds light on tensions that energy-only interconnection raises in allowing generators to access the transmission system on an as available basis and discusses how controlling thresholds for congestion-related network upgrades may be a barrier to electricity market entry.

Gorman, Will↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating offshore legacy wells for geologic carbon storage: A case study from the Galveston and Brazos areas in the Gulf of Mexico

In this article, federal offshore waters in the Gulf of Mexico are of interest for large-scale geologic carbon storage (GCS). However, more than 80,000 offshore oil and gas wells exist in the region, which could impact the integrity of sealing intervals. In this study, we propose a screening methodology for ranking offshore legacy wells based on the challenge they may present to GCS. The methodology relies on the review of well regulatory records to 1) identify leakage pathways and assess the potential hazards that wells pose to planned GCS operations, 2) evaluate well features that impact the accessibility of wells to determine the feasibility of potential corrective actions, and 3) rank wells based on the overall challenge they may pose for GCS. We demonstrate our framework by evaluating the construction and abandonment of 156 wells across eight areas of interest (AOIs) in shallow federal waters along the Texas Gulf Coast. The majority (99.3 %) of wells considered were constructed and plugged in a manner that did not isolate prospective GCS targets in the Upper and Lower Miocene formations and may potentially require a challenging or uncertain corrective action prior to GCS. Dataset trends suggest that the observed well construction and plugging designs may be common in shallow offshore federal waters along the Texas Gulf Coast. Consequently, operators pursuing offshore GCS projects in the region may consider selecting areas that avoid challenging wells or performing robust evaluations of legacy well leakage risks to plan corrective action prior to CO 2 injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1973

A review of the influence of physical condition parameters on a typical aerospace stress effect: Decompression sickness

The study examines data on episodes of decompression sickness, particularly from recent Navy work in which the event occurred under multiple stress conditions, to determine the extent to which decompression sickness might be predicted on the basis of personal characteristics such as age, weight, and physical condition. Such information should ultimately be useful for establishing medical selection criteria to screen individuals prior to participation inactivities involving extensive changes in ambient pressure, including those encountered in space operations. The main conclusions were as follows. There is a definite and positive relationship between increasing age and weight and the likelihood of decompression sickness. However, for predictive purposes, the relationship is low. To reduce the risk of bends, particularly for older individuals, strenuous exercise should be avoided immediately after ambient pressure changes. Temperatures should be kept at the low end of the comfort zone. For space activities, pressure changes of over 6-7 psi should be avoided. Prospective participants in future missions such as the Space Shuttle should not be excluded on the basis of age, certainly to age 60, if their general condition is reasonably good and they are not grossly obese. (Modified author abstract)

West, V. R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A contribution to laser range imaging technology

The goal of the project was to develop a methodology for fusion of a Laser Range Imaging Device (LRID) and camera data. Our initial work in the project led to the conclusion that none of the LRID's that were available were sufficiently adequate for this purpose. Thus we spent the time and effort on the development of the new LRID with several novel features which elicit the desired fusion objectives. In what follows, we describe the device developed and built under contract. The Laser Range Imaging Device (LRID) is an instrument which scans a scene using a laser and returns range and reflection intensity data. Such a system would be extremely useful in scene analysis in industry and space applications. The LRID will be eventually implemented on board a mobile robot. The current system has several advantages over some commercially available systems. One improvement is the use of X-Y galvonometer scanning mirrors instead of polygonal mirrors present in some systems. The advantage of the X-Y scanning mirrors is that the mirror system can be programmed to provide adjustable scanning regions. For each mirror there are two controls accessible by the computer. The first is the mirror position and the second is a zoom factor which modifies the amplitude of the position of the parameter. Another advantage of the LRID is the use of a visible low power laser. Some of the commercial systems use a higher intensity invisible laser which causes safety concerns. By using a low power visible laser, not only can one see the beam and avoid direct eye contact, but also the lower intensity reduces the risk of damage to the eye, and no protective eyeware is required.

Defigueiredo, Rui J. P.↗

NASA NTRS2021

FRESCO: A Framework for Spacecraft Systems Autonomy

Achieving the science exploration and defense goals of the following decades will require flight systems capable of operations with limited operator contact, system mode changes and retasking based on sensor data, and complex robotic operations. To support these capabilities, increasingly autonomous flight systems are required that can perform dedicated mission functions, e.g. payload targeting and communications, and system-level functions, e.g. planning and goal monitoring. Architecting an autonomous system requires a well-reasoned, self-consistent framework to avoid \textit{ad hoc} design choices that will introduce complexity and risk. The Framework for Robust Execution and Scheduling of Commands On-Board, FRESCO, is the result of lessons learned in developing a software architecture to enable autonomous solar system exploration. FRESCO generalizes this work to offer a modular, software-agnostic approach to developing verifiable architecture for autonomous space systems. FRESCO specifies guiding principles, functions, interfaces, and interactions from which mission-specific autonomous control architectures can be derived. FRESCO is a principled framework relying on explicit, state-based goal definitions, centralized management of state knowledge, clearly separated control boundaries, and hierarchical reasoning. Using components from FRESCO reference architecture, an autonomous decision-making architecture can be designed for spacecraft which can then be mapped to flight software architecture. FRESCO is flexibly defined to enable autonomous control of flight systems built using extensive software and hardware heritage. Finally, FRESCO-derived architectures support a spectrum of operator/spacecraft interactions, ranging from traditional commanding to goal-driven commanding with the ability to change mission goals autonomously. FRESCO has been used in defining the autonomy architectures for the ASTERIA mission and have been demonstrated in laboratory and software simulation for small body rendezvous and in-space servicing missions.

Kolcio, Ksenia↗

NASA NTRS2013

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Spacecraft Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

A document discusses sequential probability ratio tests that explicitly allow decision-makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models the null hypotheses that the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming, highly elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA's Approach to Critical Risks for Extended Human Space Flight

Planetary Robotic and Human Spaceflight Exploration Humans are exposed to a great variety of hazards in the space environment. These include the effects of weightlessness, radiation, isolation and confinement, altered day-night cycles, and others. These inherent hazards have both physiological and behavioral consequences. The adaptive capabilities of humans in these situations is remarkable, and often exceed our expectations. However, the demanding environment and challenging operational pace can push some of these adaptive processes to their limits. The NASA Human Research Program (HRP) is tasked with mitigating the most serious of these effects on human health, safety, and performance, in long-duration space flight. This can involve the development and deployment of physiological countermeasures, better understanding of the physiological alterations and avoidance of exacerbating situations, inputs to the design of future spacecraft to minimize risks, and in some cases the awareness that some level of risk might have to be accepted based on the resulting consequences and their likelihood. HRP has identified a few areas that are of special concern due to their severity, lack of understanding of underlying causes, or potential for negative impact on health or performance. Some of these areas are visual impairment possibly due to increased intracranial pressure, behavioral and performance problems due to sleep deficits and isolation, and acute and chronic effects of radiation. These problems can, if not addressed, be expected to increase on longer and more distant missions. The evidence from spaceflight, laboratory, and analog studies that supports the selection of the most critical risks will be discussed. Current and planned research programs that address these risks, and their anticipated outcomes, will also be described.

Shelhamer, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical Modeling and Simulation of Sodium-Potassium–Cooled MARVEL Microreactor Core

The U.S. Department of Energy's Microreactor Program, with Idaho National Laboratory's development of a nuclear microreactor applications test bed named MARVEL, aims to support R&D for the deployment of small, transportable reactors across civilian, industrial, and defense sectors. The MARVEL microreactor, an 85-kWth thermal fission reactor, incorporates TRIGA nuclear fuel and a sodium-potassium eutectic as its primary coolant, designed for safety and efficiency, with natural circulation eliminating the risk of critical heat flux conditions. The reliance on natural circulation for primary cooling means the reactor avoids using fuel spacers to minimize core pressure drop, which could disrupt the primary coolant's natural flow. However, the reactor core’s tight P/D ratio of 1.05, in the absence of fuel spacers, could pose a risk of fuel rod contact and increased peak cladding temperatures. To ensure the reactor safety, this study conducted computational modeling and simulations to investigate the reactor's thermal-hydraulic-mechanical characteristics, including the reactor core heat transfer coefficients, the potential for rod-to-rod contact, and assessed its impact on peak cladding temperature and overall reactor safety. The computational analyses of the MARVEL microreactor core revealed that the thermal deformation of fuel rods under worst-case scenario may lead to the fuel rod contact, but the peak cladding temperatures will remain significantly lower than the safety criteria, ensuring the safety operation reactor without fuel spacers under normal operating conditions.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

NASA NTRS2016

Making Debris Avoidance Decisions for ESMO's EOS Mission Set

The presentation will cover the aspects of making debris risk decisions from the NASA Mission Director's perspective, specifically for NASA Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) Earth Observing System (EOS) mission set. ESMO has been involved in analyzing potential debris risk conjunctions with secondary objects since the inception of this discipline. Through the cumulated years of experience and continued exposure to various debris scenarios, ESMO's understanding of the problem and process to deal with this issue has evolved. The presentation will describe the evolution of the ESMO process, specifically as it relates to the maneuver execution and spacecraft risk management decision process. It will briefly cover the original Drag Make-Up Maneuver, several day, methodical manually intensive, ramp up waive off approach, to the present day more automated, pre-canned onboard command, tools based approach. The presentation will also cover the key information needed to make debris decisions and challenges in doing so while still trying to meet science goals, constellation constraints and manage resources. A slide or two at the end of the presentation, will be devoted to discussing what further improvements could be helpful to improve decision making and future process improvement plans challenges.

debris↗

NASA NTRS2013

A TCAS-II Resolution Advisory Detection Algorithm

The Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) is a family of airborne systems designed to reduce the risk of mid-air collisions between aircraft. TCAS~II, the current generation of TCAS devices, provides resolution advisories that direct pilots to maintain or increase vertical separation when aircraft distance and time parameters are beyond designed system thresholds. This paper presents a mathematical model of the TCAS~II Resolution Advisory (RA) logic that assumes accurate aircraft state information. Based on this model, an algorithm for RA detection is also presented. This algorithm is analogous to a conflict detection algorithm, but instead of predicting loss of separation, it predicts resolution advisories. It has been formally verified that for a kinematic model of aircraft trajectories, this algorithm completely and correctly characterizes all encounter geometries between two aircraft that lead to a resolution advisory within a given lookahead time interval. The RA detection algorithm proposed in this paper is a fundamental component of a NASA sense and avoid concept for the integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems in civil airspace.

Munoz, Cesar↗

DOE OSTI2025

Technology readiness assessment of magnetohydrodynamic stability control

The technology readiness level scale is revised with clear definitions for magnetohydrodynamic stability control technologies for magnetic confinement fusion. The definitions are in the form of a sentence with three dimensions, which are the system complexity, the test environment, and the cost. A clear and simple definition is sought after to make an assessment based on the evidence which is agreeable to the fusion energy development community. A sample technology readiness assessment (TRA) for the electron cyclotron current drive-based control of neoclassical tearing mode for ST Advanced Reactor, using the proposed scale, reveals that the risk of a TRA being misinterpreted is high, which can only be avoided with an understanding of the procedure described in this paper.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1990

Kalman filter based range estimation for autonomous navigation using imaging sensors

Rotorcraft operating in high-threat environments fly close to the surface of the earth to utilize surrounding terrain, vegetation, or man-made objects to minimize the risk of being detected by the enemy. Two basic requirements for obstacle avoidance are detection and range estimation of the object from the current rotorcraft position. There are many approaches to the estimation of range using a sequence of images. The approach used in this analysis differes from previous methods in two significant ways: an attempt is not made to estimate the rotorcraft's motion from the images; and the interest lies in recursive algorithms. The rotorcraft parameters are assumed to be computed using an onboard inertial navigation system. Given a sequence of images, using image-object differential equations, a Kalman filter (Sridhar and Phatak, 1988) can be used to estimate both the relative coordinates and the earth coordinates of the objects on the ground. The Kalman filter can also be used in a predictive mode to track features in the images, leading to a significant reduction of search effort in the feature extraction step of the algorithm. The purpose is to summarize early results obtained in extending the Kalman filter for use with actual image sequences. The experience gained from the application of this algorithm to real images is very valuable and is a necessary step before proceeding to the estimation of range during low-altitude curvilinear flight. A simple recursive method is presented to estimate range to objects using a sequence of images. The method produces good range estimates using real images in a laboratory set up and needs to be evaluated further using several different image sequences to test its robustness. The feature generation part of the algorithm requires further refinement on the strategies to limit the number of features (Sridhar and Phatak, 1989). The extension of the work reported here to curvilinear flight may require the use of the extended Kalman filter.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

NASA NTRS2024

Computing Proximity to Threat Along Uncertain Trajectory to Support Urban Air Mobility

Many airspace threats affect the selection of a flight route, such as terrain, physical obstacles, adverse weather, and special-use airspace, among others. Threat avoidance during Urban Air Mobility (UAM) and Low Altitude Mobility (LAM) flights is especially challenging due to their lower cruising altitudes. These operations may be exposed to buildings, towers, trees, terrain undulations, etc., along much of their flight route. Moreover, these low-altitude flights in urban environments are expected to encounter very busy airspace, increasing the workload associated with threat avoidance. The Proximity to Threat (PtT) function aims to support onboard or remote pilots by computing the risk from geospatial threats in the airspace along an aircraft’s flight path. The threats are both static entities and dynamic airspace restrictions that have been modeled and stored in geo-referenced mapping databases. The flight path may be specified by waypoints, airways, or similar discrete route elements or by a time series of closely spaced position and altitude points. Flight path uncertainty can also be taken into account by assuming both the position and altitude to be sampled from two normal distributions, each being specified by a mean and variance. PtT uses this additional information to verify that the flight path remains clear of threats along a wider path or if a position is reached earlier or later than anticipated, assuring the pilot or operator that there will be an available safety margin even if the aircraft deviates due to one or more occurrences of unexpected wind gusts, mechanical failures, airspeed changes, collision avoidance maneuvers, etc. The client can specify an uncertainty confidence level to bound the set of trajectories evaluated for threats so that the confidence level corresponds to the client’s risk tolerance under the expected conditions. PtT can be used as a pre-flight planning tool to determine a safe route through known threats and in-flight to avoid emerging or changing threats. In this report, we present the PtT function, discuss how the trajectory uncertainty is incorporated into the PtT function, and describe the use of this PtT function in a representative scenario.

urban air mobility↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation Center for Runaway Electron Avoidance and Mitigation (SCREAM SciDAC) (Technical Final Report)

Runaway electrons can severely damage the plasma facing components on ITER during a major disruption and pose a major risk for tokamak fusion. It has been recognized that an adequate disruption mitigation system (DMS) is essential for the safe operation of ITER. The United States is responsible for the design and implementation of the disruption mitigation system on ITER, and in July 2016 the Simulation Center for Runaway Electron Avoidance and Mitigation (SCREAM) was launched by DOE, in a joint Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) collaboration. SCREAM was a comprehensive theory and simulation SciDAC center that provided physics guidance in the avoidance and mitigation of runaway electrons, and in tandem with domestic and international experiments, helped establish the qualitative and quantitative bases for safe operational scenarios and viable mitigation techniques. The SCREAM center assembled a national team of experts in runaway electron physics, tokamak disruptions, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, and advanced algorithms and computing. The team combined advanced simulation and analysis capability facilitated by direct participation of ASCR SciDAC institutes with theoretical models and code development by FES scientists to focus on the runaway risk for ITER and tokamaks in general. The research scope was focussed on integrated simulations of kinetic runaway electrons, including MHD and fluid models of impurity transport, within a research plan guided by theory. The specific research tasks were (1) establish the fundamental physics of runaway generation, saturation, and dynamical evolution in a tokamak; (2) examine the critical path toward runaway avoidance; and (3) investigate the viability and effectiveness of the leading candidate schemes for runaway mitigation. In all three areas, members of the team carried out scoping studies that established the readiness for rapid and critical advances, especially in the deployment and further development of large-to extreme-scale simulation tools. Our multi-pronged computational approach included (1) relativistic Fokker-Planck solvers with discretization in phase space, (2) self-consistent particle-in-cell techniques, (3) particle-based Monte-Carlo, and (4) MHD-particle hybrid simulations. Cross-check between these different methods provided an additional means for verification and further bolstered the fidelity of our physics prediction. Validation against experimental results brings confidence to the predictive capability for ITER and frequently leads to new ideas for understanding and mitigating the thermal quench driven runaway electron phenomenon.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2018

NASA's Understanding of Risk in Apollo and Shuttle

Mathematical risk analysis was used in Apollo, but it gave unacceptably pessimistic resultsand was discontinued. Shuttle was designed without using risk analysis, under the assumptionthat good engineering would make it very safe. This approach led to an unnecessarily riskydesign, which directly led to the Shuttle tragedies. Although the Challenger disaster wasdirectly due to a mistaken launch decision, it might have been avoided by a safer design. Theultimate cause of the Shuttle tragedies was the Apollo era decision to abandon risk analysis.

Jones, Harry W.↗