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At least 145 records · Page 8

A Realization of Bias Correction Method in the GMAO Coupled System

Over the past several decades, a tremendous effort has been made to improve model performance in the simulation of the climate system. The cold or warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the tropics is still a problem common to most coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs). The precipitation biases in CGCMs are also accompanied by SST and surface wind biases. The deficiencies and biases over the equatorial oceans through their influence on the Walker circulation likely contribute the precipitation biases over land surfaces. In this study, we introduce an approach in the CGCM modeling to correct model biases. This approach utilizes the history of the model's short-term forecasting errors and their seasonal dependence to modify model's tendency term and to minimize its climate drift. The study shows that such an approach removes most of model climate biases. A number of other aspects of the model simulation (e.g. extratropical transient activities) are also improved considerably due to the imposed pre-processed initial 3-hour model drift corrections. Because many regional biases in the GEOS-5 CGCM are common amongst other current models, our approaches and findings are applicable to these other models as well.

Chang, Yehui↗

CALIPSO IIR Version 2 Level 1b Calibrated Radiances: Analysis and Reduction of Residual Biases in the Northern Hemisphere

Version 2 of the Level 1b calibrated radiances of the Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR) on board the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite has been released recently. This new version incorporates corrections of small but systematic seasonal calibration biases previously revealed in Version 1 data products mostly north of 30° N. These biases – of different amplitudes in the three IIR channels 8.65 µm (IIR1), 10.6 µm (IIR2), and 12.05 µm (IIR3) – were made apparent by a striping effect in images of IIR inter-channel brightness temperature differences (BTDs) and through seasonal warm biases of nighttime IIR brightness temperatures in the 30–60° N latitude range. The latter were highlighted through observed and simulated comparisons with similar channels of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board the Aqua spacecraft. To characterize the calibration biases affecting Version 1 data, a semi-empirical approach is developed, which is based on the in-depth analysis of the IIR internal calibration procedure in conjunction with observations such as statistical comparisons with similar MODIS/Aqua channels. Two types of calibration biases are revealed: an equalization bias affecting part of the individual IIR images and a global bias affecting the radiometric level of each image. These biases are observed only when the temperature of the instrument increases, and they are found to be functions of elapsed time since night-to-day transition, regardless of the season. Correction coefficients of Version 1 radiances could thus be defined and implemented in the Version 2 code. As a result, the striping effect seen in Version 1 is significantly attenuated in Version 2. Systematic discrepancies between nighttime and daytime IIR–MODIS BTDs in the 30–60° N latitude range in summer are reduced from 0.2 K in Version 1 to 0.1 K in Version 2 for IIR1–MODIS29. For IIR2–MODIS31 and IIR3–MODIS32, they are reduced from 0.4 K to close to zero, except for IIR3–MODIS32 in June, where the night-minus-day difference is around −0.1 K.

Garnier, Anne↗

Attribution of Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) Ozone Radiative Flux Bias from Satellites

The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave flux over the 9.6-μm ozone band is a fundamental quantity for understanding chemistry-climate coupling. However, observed TOA fluxes are hard to estimate as they exhibit considerable variability in space and time that depend on the distributions of clouds, ozone (O3), water vapor (H2O), air temperature (Ta), and surface temperature (Ts). Benchmarking present day fluxes and quantifying the relative influence of their drivers is the first step for estimating climate feedbacks from ozone radiative forcing and predicting radiative forcing evolution. To that end, we constructed observational instantaneous radiative kernels (IRKs) under clear-sky conditions, representing the sensitivities of the TOA flux in the 9.6-μm ozone band to the vertical distribution of geophysical variables, including O3, H2O, Ta, and Ts based upon the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) measurements. Applying these kernels to present-day simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project as compared to a 2006 reanalysis assimilating satellite observations, we show that the models have large differences in TOA flux, attributable to different geophysical variables. In particular, model simulations continue to diverge from observations in the tropics, as reported in previous studies of the Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (ACCMIP) simulations. The principal culprits are tropical mid and upper tropospheric ozone followed by tropical lower tropospheric H2O. Five models out of the eight studied here have TOA flux biases exceeding 100 mWm-2 attributable to tropospheric ozone bias. Another set of five models have flux biases over 50 mWm-2 due to H2O. On the other hand, Ta radiative bias is negligible in all models (no more than 30 mWm-2). We found that AM3 and CMAM have the lowest TOA flux biases globally but are a result of cancellation of opposite biases due to difference processes. Overall, the multi-model ensemble mean bias is –133±98 mWm-2, indicating that they are too atmospherically opaque due to trapping too much radiation in the atmosphere by overestimated tropical tropospheric O3 and H2O. Having too much O3 and H2O in the troposphere would have different impacts on the sensitivity of TOA flux to O3 and these competing effects add more uncertainties on the ozone radiative forcing. We find that the inter-model TOA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) difference is well anti-correlated with their ozone band flux bias. This suggests that there is significant radiative compensation in the calculation of model outgoing longwave radiation.

Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) meas↗

Four Perspectives on Human Bias in Visual Analytics

Mixed-initiative visual analytic systems steer analytical models and adapt views by making inferences from users' behavioral patterns with the system. Because such systems rely on incorporating implicit and explicit user feedback, they are particularly susceptible to the injection and propagation of human biases. To ultimately guard against the potentially negative effects of systems biased by human users, we must first qualify what we mean by the term bias. Thus, in this paper we describe four different perspectives on human bias that are particularly relevant to visual analytics. We discuss the interplay of human and computer system biases, particularly their roles in mixed-initiative systems. Given that the term bias is used to describe several different concepts, our goal is to encourage mindful consideration of which perspective on bias researchers take in their work to facilitate a common language in research and development efforts going forward.

visual analytics, mixed-initiative systems, cognit↗

Machine learning-assisted identification of potential sources of bias in measurements of prompt-fission neutron spectra

Unrecognized sources of uncertainty (USU) can bias the reported mean and/or covariance of experimental nuclear data. These biases, in turn, can propagate through evaluated nuclear data to application simulations or may poorly inform nuclear theory that is fitted to the experimental data. Such unknown sources of bias must be tied to the inherent physical constituents of the measurements such as the characteristics of a detector response or a background reduction technique. Here, in this article, a sparse Bayesian learning model is used to support experts in their efforts to identify and characterize USU in experimental prompt fission neutron spectra (PFNS) for spontaneous fissioning of 252 Cf by linking observed biases to features of the measurement system. Three different bias components were found. The first acts as a verification case for the algorithm as it identifies a bias coming from a well-known source related to the use of 6 Li in the neutron detection system. The second two cases demonstrate how this method can benefit the evaluation of experimental nuclear data by identifying, quantifying, and relating unknown biases to potential causes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evaluating algorithmic bias on biomarker classification of breast cancer pathology reports

Objectives: This work evaluated algorithmic bias in biomarkers classification using electronic pathology reports from female breast cancer cases. Bias was assessed across 5 subgroups: cancer registry, race, Hispanic ethnicity, age at diagnosis, and socioeconomic status. Materials and Methods: We utilized 594 875 electronic pathology reports from 178 121 tumors diagnosed in Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Seattle, and Utah to train 2 deep-learning algorithms to classify breast cancer patients using their biomarkers test results. We used balanced error rate (BER), demographic parity (DP), equalized odds (EOD), and equal opportunity (EOP) to assess bias. Results: We found differences in predictive accuracy between registries, with the highest accuracy in the registry that contributed the most data (Seattle Registry, BER ratios for all registries >1.25). BER showed no significant algorithmic bias in extracting biomarkers (estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2) for race, Hispanic ethnicity, age at diagnosis, or socioeconomic subgroups (BER ratio <1.25). DP, EOD, and EOP all showed insignificant results. Discussion: We observed significant differences in BER by registry, but no significant bias using the DP, EOD, and EOP metrics for socio-demographic or racial categories. This highlights the importance of employing a diverse set of metrics for a comprehensive evaluation of model fairness. Conclusion: A thorough evaluation of algorithmic biases that may affect equality in clinical care is a critical step before deploying algorithms in the real world. We found little evidence of algorithmic bias in our biomarker classification tool. Artificial intelligence tools to expedite information extraction from clinical records could accelerate clinical trial matching and improve care.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Facile integration of giant exchange bias in Fe 5 Ge Te 2 / oxide heterostructures by atomic layer deposition

Exchange bias arises from the interfacial exchange coupling in ferromagnet-antiferromagnet bilayers and manifests as a horizontal shift of the magnetic hysteresis loop, constituting a critical component underpinning a broad range of magnetoresistive logic and memory devices. The facile implementation of exchange bias in van der Waals (vdW) magnets would be a key step towards practical devices for emerging vdW spintronics. Here, in this paper, we report an easy approach to establishing strong exchange bias in the vdW magnet Fe 5 GeTe 2 by a single-step process—atomic layer deposition (ALD) of oxides on Fe 5 GeTe 2 . We successfully created exchange bias of 300–1500 Oe in Fe 5 GeTe 2 /Al 2 O 3 , Fe 5 GeTe 2 /ZnO, and Fe 5 GeTe 2 /V 2 O 5 heterostructures, at 130 K. Control experiments showed that increasing the oxidant pulse duration in each ALD cycle or utilizing the stronger oxidant O 3 can enhance the exchange bias strength, revealing the key role of the ALD oxidants. Our systematic work elucidates the essential role of ALD-enabled oxidization of Fe 5 GeTe 2 in the formation of exchange bias, and establishes ALD of oxides as a facile, controllable, and generally effective approach to creating giant exchange bias in vdW magnets, representing an integral advance towards practical vdW spintronic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Design Optimization of Medium-Frequency Transformer for DAB Converters With DC Bias Capacity

Medium-frequency transformer (MFT) dc bias is critical for the safe operation of dual-active-bridge (DAB) converters. To analyze the dc bias, expressions of dc bias are derived for SiC MOSFET DAB converters. It shows that the dc bias is a current source in steady state; thus, a dc bias current capacity is defined and used as a design constraint in the optimization of MFT. The dc bias current capacity is related to core materials, geometric parameters, and flux density, which is analyzed with analytical expression. Optimization equations with geometric variables are derived, which can be solved theoretically or numerically for both interleaved winding (IW) and separated winding (SW) MFT without and/or with leakage inductance design. Based on the optimization equations, different MFT designs for a 150-kW SiC MOSFET DAB converter are compared on the aspects of core materials, winding structures, and without/with leakage inductance design. The combination of IW structure MFT with auxiliary phase shift inductors is chosen, and the assembled prototype is tested with the 150-kW DAB converter. Here, the designed dc bias capacity, temperature rise, and efficiency are verified.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Cognitive Bias in Systems Verification

Working definition of cognitive bias: Patterns by which information is sought and interpreted that can lead to systematic errors in decisions. Cognitive bias is used in diverse fields: Economics, Politics, Intelligence, Marketing, to name a few. Attempts to ground cognitive science in physical characteristics of the cognitive apparatus exceed our knowledge. Studies based on correlations; strict cause and effect is difficult to pinpoint. Effects cited in the paper and discussed here have been replicated many times over, and appear sound. Many biases have been described, but it is still unclear whether they are all distinct. There may only be a handful of fundamental biases, which manifest in various ways. Bias can effect system verification in many ways . Overconfidence -> Questionable decisions to deploy. Availability -> Inability to conceive critical tests. Representativeness -> Overinterpretation of results. Positive Test Strategies -> Confirmation bias. Debiasing at individual level very difficult. The potential effect of bias on the verification process can be managed, but not eliminated. Worth considering at key points in the process.

Cognitive bias↗

Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a different number of input products. For the globe the calculated relative error estimate from this study is about 9%, which is also probably a slight overestimate. These tropical and global estimated bias errors provide one estimate of the current state of knowledge of the planet's mean precipitation.

Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)↗

Minimal Experimental Bias on the Hydrogen Bond Greatly Improves Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Water

Experiment Directed Simulations (EDS) is a method within a class of techniques seeking to improve molecular simulations by minimally biasing the system Hamiltonian to reproduce certain experimental observables. In a previous application of EDS to ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulation based on electronic density functional theory (DFT), the AIMD simulations of water were biased to reproduce its experimentally derived solvation structure. In particular, by solely biasing the O-O pair correlation functions, other structural and dynamical properties that were not biased were improved. In this work, the hypothesis is tested that directly biasing the OH pair correlation (and hence the H-O∙∙∙H hydrogen bonding), will provide an even better improvement of DFT-based water properties in AIMD simulations. The logic behind this hypothesis is that for most electronic DFT descriptions of water the hydrogen bonding is known to be deficient due to anomalous charge transfer and over polarization in the DFT. Using recent advances to the EDS learning algorithm, we thus train a minimal bias on AIMD water that reproduces the O-H radial distribution function derived from the highly accurate MB-pol model of water. Finally, it is then confirmed that biasing the O-H pair correlation alone can lead to improved AIMD water properties, with structural and dynamical properties in even closer to experiment than the previous EDS-AIMD model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Aridity-Dependent Land Surface Skin Temperature Biases in CMIP5/6

Land surface skin temperature, a critical indicator of climate change, connects the water and energy cycles between the land and the atmosphere. Here, in this study, we evaluate the simulations of land surface skin temperature from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 models with satellite-based datasets and reanalysis. We find systematic cold skin temperature biases over arid regions in CMIP5/CMIP6 simulations. Over arid and semi-arid regions, latent heat biases drive skin temperature biases by evaporative cooling. Over humid regions, surface downward shortwave and albedo biases are relatively more critical. Spatial patterns of biases remain similar in the latest CMIP6 simulations, suggesting systematic biases in land-atmosphere interactions. These biases need to be corrected or considered while using models for future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improved Representations of Longwave Surface Emissivity to Reduce Surface and Atmospheric Heating Biases in Earth System Models

Abstract Many Earth system models (ESMs) approximate surface emissivity as a broadband constant. This approximation reduces the computational burden, yet omits the spectral structure of emissivity and atmospheric absorption. Neglecting spectral variation in surface emission introduces biases in longwave (LW) atmospheric fluxes and heating. Biases are strongest over surfaces with strongly varying emissivity and minimal atmospheric opacity. We examine these biases over water, ice, and snow surfaces. We partition spectral emissivity into the 16 spectral bands utilized by a single‐column atmospheric radiative transfer model (RRTMG_LW) commonly used in ESMs. We quantify flux and heating biases introduced by broadband assumptions relative to the spectrally resolved case for standard atmospheric profiles over each surface type. Current assumptions tend to overestimate upwelling surface fluxes; for example, the greybody assumption overestimates flux by 1.6 W/m 2 (0.52%) at the bottom of a mid‐latitude winter atmosphere over ice, and by 2.33 (1.0%) at the top of atmosphere. The blackbody assumption tends to artificially cool Earth's surface, stabilizing the lower troposphere. Interestingly, the optimal broadband emissivity can deviate from the Planck‐weighted mean by up to 3% depending on surface type and atmospheric profile. We investigate bias sensitivity to surface temperature, cloud water path, and atmospheric water vapor. Bias is most sensitive to water vapor content, and least sensitive to cloud water path. Lastly, we show that a modified greybody method with updated broadband values can reduce total surface flux bias up to 1.69 , comparable to a five‐band approach and at a fraction of the computational cost.

Manzo, L. [Department of Earth System Science Univ↗

Influence of growth conditions on exchange bias of NiMn-based spin valves

As shown in previous investigations, a correlation between a NiMn-based spin valve's thermal stability and its inherent exchange bias exists, even if the blocking temperature of the antiferromagnet is clearly above the heating temperature and the reason for thermal degradation is mainly diffusion and not the loss of exchange bias. Samples with high exchange bias are thermally more stable than samples with low exchange bias. Those structures promoting a high exchange bias are seemingly the same suppressing thermally induced diffusion processes (A. Wienecke and L. Rissing, “Relationship between thermal stability and layer-stack/structure of NiMn-based GMR systems,” in IEEE Transaction on Magnetic Conference (EMSA 2014)). Many investigations were carried out on the influence of the sputtering parameters as well as the layer thickness on the magnetoresistive effect. The influence of these parameters on the exchange bias and the sample's thermal stability, respectively, was hardly taken into account. The investigation described here concentrates on the last named issue. The focus lies on the influence of the sputtering parameters and layer thickness of the “starting layers” in the stack and the layers forming the (synthetic) antiferromagnet. This paper includes a guideline for the evaluated sputtering conditions and layer thicknesses to realize a high exchange bias and presumably good thermal stability for NiMn-based spin valves with a synthetic antiferromagnet.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

A room temperature exchange bias effect caused by the coexisting martensitic phase structures in Ni50Mn38Sb12−xGax polycrystalline Heusler alloys

The exchange bias effect is the physical cornerstone of applications, such as spin valves, ultra-high-density data storage, and magnetic tunnel junctions. This work studied the room temperature exchange bias effect by constructing a Ni50Mn38Sb12−xGax alloy system with coexisting martensitic phase structures. The study found that the exchange bias effect shows a non-monotonic change with the variation of Ga composition at 300 K, and an obvious room temperature exchange bias effect appears in the alloys with coexisting phase structures of 4O and L10, which is due to the strong exchange coupling between ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic. Further research on the exchange bias effect and temperature shows that the blocking temperature is 420 K, and the exchange bias can stably exist in a temperature range of ∼200 K around room temperature. This work provides a method to engineer exchange bias effects at room temperature.

Physics↗

Is there scale-dependent bias in single-field inflation?

Scale-dependent halo bias due to local primordial non-Gaussianity provides a strong test of single-field inflation. While it is universally understood that single-field inflation predicts negligible scale-dependent bias compared to current observational uncertainties, there is still disagreement on the exact level of scale-dependent bias at a level that could strongly impact inferences made from future surveys. In this paper, we clarify this confusion and derive in various ways that there is exactly zero scale-dependent bias in single-field inflation. Much of the current confusion follows from the fact that single-field inflation does predict a mode coupling of matter perturbations at the level of f{sub NL}{sup local}; ≈ −5/3, which naively would lead to scale-dependent bias. However, we show explicitly that this mode coupling cancels out when perturbations are evaluated at a fixed physical scale rather than fixed coordinate scale. Furthermore, we show how the absence of scale-dependent bias can be derived easily in any gauge. This result can then be incorporated into a complete description of the observed galaxy clustering, including the previously studied general relativistic terms, which are important at the same level as scale-dependent bias of order f{sub NL}{sup local} ∼ 1. This description will allow us to draw unbiased conclusions about inflation from future galaxy clustering data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Large-scale assembly bias of dark matter halos

We present precise measurements of the assembly bias of dark matter halos, i.e. the dependence of halo bias on other properties than the mass, using curved 'separate universe' N-body simulations which effectively incorporate an infinite-wavelength matter overdensity into the background density. This method measures the LIMD (local-in-matter-density) bias parameters b {sub n} in the large-scale limit. We focus on the dependence of the first two Eulerian biases b {sup E} {sup {sub 1}} and b {sup E} {sup {sub 2}} on four halo properties: the concentration, spin, mass accretion rate, and ellipticity. We quantitatively compare our results with previous works in which assembly bias was measured on fairly small scales. Despite this difference, our findings are in good agreement with previous results. We also look at the joint dependence of bias on two halo properties in addition to the mass. Finally, using the excursion set peaks model, we attempt to shed new insights on how assembly bias arises in this analytical model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Can assembly bias explain the lensing amplitude of the BOSS CMASS sample in a Planck cosmology?

ABSTRACT In this paper, we investigate whether galaxy assembly bias can reconcile the 20–40 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ disagreement between the observed galaxy projected clustering signal and the galaxy–galaxy lensing signal in the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey CMASS galaxy sample. We use the suite of abacuscosmos lambda cold dark matter simulations at Planck best-fitting cosmology and two flexible implementations of extended halo occupation distribution (HOD) models that incorporate galaxy assembly bias to build forward models and produce joint fits of the observed galaxy clustering signal and the galaxy–galaxy lensing signal. We find that our models using the standard HODs without any assembly bias generalizations continue to show a 20–40 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ overprediction of the observed galaxy–galaxy lensing signal. We find that our implementations of galaxy assembly bias do not reconcile the two measurements at Planck best-fitting cosmology. In fact, despite incorporating galaxy assembly bias, the satellite distribution parameter, and the satellite velocity bias parameter into our extended HOD model, our fits still strongly suggest a $\sim \! 34{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ discrepancy between the observed projected clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing measurements. It remains to be seen whether a combination of other galaxy assembly bias models, alternative cosmological parameters, or baryonic effects can explain the amplitude difference between the two signals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗