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JPL's Role in Advancing Earth System Science to Meet the Challenges of Climate and Environmental Change

Objective 2.1.1: Improve understanding of and improve the predictive capability for changes in the ozone layer, climate forcing, and air quality associated with changes in atmospheric composition. Objective 2.1.2: Enable improved predictive capability for weather and extreme weather events. Objective 2.1.3: Quantify, understand, and predict changes in Earth s ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, including the global carbon cycle, land cover, and biodiversity. Objective 2.1.4: Quantify the key reservoirs and fluxes in the global water cycle and assess water cycle change and water quality. Objective 2.1.5: Improve understanding of the roles of the ocean, atmosphere, land and ice in the climate system and improve predictive capability for its future evolution. Objective 2.1.6: Characterize the dynamics of Earth s surface and interior and form the scientific basis for the assessment and mitigation of natural hazards and response to rare and extreme events. Objective 2.1.7: Enable the broad use of Earth system science observations and results in decision-making activities for societal benefits.

Earth observations↗

Myanmar Ecological Forecasting: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Monitor, Map, and Analyze Mangrove Forests in Myanmar for Enhanced Conservation

Mangroves supply many essential environmental amenities, such as preventing soil erosion, filtering water pollution, and protecting shorelines from harmful waves, floods, storms and winds. The Mangroves in Myanmar not only provide citizens with a food source, but they also offer firewood, charcoal, and construction materials. The depletion of mangroves is threatening more than the biodiversity however; Myanmar's fiscal livelihood is also in harm's way. Mangroves are valued at $100,000 to $277,000 per square kilometer and if managed in a sustainable fashion, can infuse constant income to the emerging Myanmarese economy. This study analyzed three coastline regions, the Ayeyarwady Delta, Rakhine and Tanintharyi, and mapped the spatial extent of mangrove forest during the dry season in 2000 and 2013. The classifications were derived from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operation Land Imager (OLI) imagery, as well as the Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) digital elevation model information. This data was atmospherically corrected, mosaicked, masked and classified in ENVI, followed by ArcGIS to perform raster calculations and create final products. Forest degradation collected from 2000 to 2013 was later used to forecast the density and health of Mangroves in the year 2030. These results were subsequently presented to project partners Dr. Peter Leimgruber and Ellen Aiken at the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute in Front Royal, VA. After the presentation of the project to the partners, these organizations formally passed on to the Myanmar Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Forestry for policy makers and forest managers to utilize in order to protect the Myanmar mangrove ecosystem while sustaining a healthy economy.

Weber, Samuel J.↗

Forest Cover Associated with Improved Child Health and Nutrition: Evidence from the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey and Satellite Data

Healthy forests provide human communities with a host of important ecosystem services, including the provision of food, clean water, fuel, and natural medicines. Yet globally, about 13 million hectares of forests are lost every year, with the biggest losses in Africa and South America. As biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation due to deforestation continue at unprecedented rates, with concomitant loss of ecosystem services, impacts on human health remain poorly understood. Here, we use data from the 2010 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey, linked with satellite remote sensing data on forest cover, to explore and better understand this relationship. Our analysis finds that forest cover is associated with improved health and nutrition outcomes among children in Malawi. Children living in areas with net forest cover loss between 2000 and 2010 were 19% less likely to have a diverse diet and 29% less likely to consume vitamin A-rich foods than children living in areas with no net change in forest cover. Conversely, children living in communities with higher percentages of forest cover were more likely to consume vitamin A-rich foods and less likely to experience diarrhea. Net gain in forest cover over the 10-year period was associated with a 34% decrease in the odds of children experiencing diarrhea (P5.002). Given that our analysis relied on observational data and that there were potential unknown factors for which we could not account, these preliminary findings demonstrate only associations, not causal relationships, between forest cover and child health and nutrition outcomes. However, the findings raise concerns about the potential short- and long-term impacts of ongoing deforestation and ecosystem degradation on community health in Malawi, and they suggest that preventing forest loss and maintaining the ecosystems services of forests are important factors in improving human health and nutrition outcomes.

malawi↗

El Nino and Health Risks from Landscape Fire Emissions in Southeast Asia

Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality. Here, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modelling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity owing to coupling between El Nino-induced droughts and anthropogenic land-use change. We show that during strong El Nino years, fires contribute up to 200 micrograms per cubic meter and 50 ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization 50 micrograms per cubic metre 24-hr PM(sub 2.5) interim target and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300)-person (approximately 2 percent) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services.

fires↗

SERVIR Presentation for the Hyperwall at the ESRI International Users Conference

From space, we can view our planet in new ways. As a joint initiative of NASA and USAID working in partnership with leading regional organizations, SERVIR connects space to village by helping people in developing countries use that view to gain knowledge and insights about their environments. We teach regional decision-makers to use Earth observation satellite data, Geographic Information Systems, and predictive models for addressing issues such as water and land use, natural disasters, agricultural problems, biodiversity conservation, and more to improve the lives, livelihoods, safety, and future of the people in their countries.

Irwin, Dan↗

Ocean Biological Pump Sensitivities and Implications for Climate Change Impacts

The ocean is one of the principal reservoirs of CO2, a greenhouse gas, and therefore plays a crucial role in regulating Earth's climate. Currently, the ocean sequesters about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, mitigating the human impact on climate. At the same time, the deeper ocean represents the largest carbon pool in the Earth System and processes that describe the transfer of carbon from the surface of the ocean to depth are intimately linked to the effectiveness of carbon sequestration.The ocean biological pump (OBP), which involves several biogeochemical processes, is a major pathway for transfer of carbon from the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior. About 75 of the carbon vertical gradient is due to the carbon pump with only 25 attributed to the solubility pump. However, the relative importance and role of the two pumps is poorly constrained. OBP is further divided to the organic carbon pump (soft tissue pump) and the carbonate pump, with the former exporting about 10 times more carbon than the latter through processes like remineralization.Major uncertainties about OBP, and hence in the carbon uptake and sequestration, stem from uncertainties in processes involved in OBP such as particulate organicinorganic carbon sinkingsettling, remineralization, microbial degradation of DOC and uptakegrowth rate changes of the ocean biology. The deep ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO2 in scales of hundreds to thousands of years, but how the export efficiency (i.e. the fraction of total carbon fixation at the surface that is transported at depth) is affected by climate change remains largely undetermined. These processes affect the ocean chemistry (alkalinity, pH, DIC, particulate and dissolved organic carbon) as well as the ecology (biodiversity, functional groups and their interactions) in the ocean. It is important to have a rigorous, quantitative understanding of the uncertainties involved in the observational measurements, the models and the projections of future changes.

particulates↗

Land Surface Phenology from MODIS: Characterization of the Collection 5 Global Land Cover Dynamics Product

Information related to land surface phenology is important for a variety of applications. For example, phenology is widely used as a diagnostic of ecosystem response to global change. In addition, phenology influences seasonal scale fluxes of water, energy, and carbon between the land surface and atmosphere. Increasingly, the importance of phenology for studies of habitat and biodiversity is also being recognized. While many data sets related to plant phenology have been collected at specific sites or in networks focused on individual plants or plant species, remote sensing provides the only way to observe and monitor phenology over large scales and at regular intervals. The MODIS Global Land Cover Dynamics Product was developed to support investigations that require regional to global scale information related to spatiotemporal dynamics in land surface phenology. Here we describe the Collection 5 version of this product, which represents a substantial refinement relative to the Collection 4 product. This new version provides information related to land surface phenology at higher spatial resolution than Collection 4 (500-m vs. 1-km), and is based on 8-day instead of 16-day input data. The paper presents a brief overview of the algorithm, followed by an assessment of the product. To this end, we present (1) a comparison of results from Collection 5 versus Collection 4 for selected MODIS tiles that span a range of climate and ecological conditions, (2) a characterization of interannual variation in Collections 4 and 5 data for North America from 2001 to 2006, and (3) a comparison of Collection 5 results against ground observations for two forest sites in the northeastern United States. Results show that the Collection 5 product is qualitatively similar to Collection 4. However, Collection 5 has fewer missing values outside of regions with persistent cloud cover and atmospheric aerosols. Interannual variability in Collection 5 is consistent with expected ranges of variance suggesting that the algorithm is reliable and robust, except in the tropics where some systematic differences are observed. Finally, comparisons with ground data suggest that the algorithm is performing well, but that end of season metrics associated with vegetation senescence and dormancy have higher uncertainties than start of season metrics.

Land cover dynamics↗

Climate Change Adaptation Activities at the NASA John F. Kennedy Space Center, FL., USA

In 2010, the Office of Strategic Infrastructure and Earth Sciences established the Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) program to integrate climate change forecasts and knowledge into sustainable management of infrastructure and operations needed for the NASA mission. NASA operates 10 field centers valued at $32 billion dollars, occupies 191,000 acres and employs 58,000 people. CASI climate change and sea-level rise forecasts focus on the 2050 and 2080 time periods. At the 140,000 acre Kennedy Space Center (KSC) data are used to simulate impacts on infrastructure, operations, and unique natural resources. KSC launch and processing facilities represent a valued national asset located in an area with high biodiversity including 33 species of special management concern. Numerical and advanced Bayesian and Monte Carlo statistical modeling is being conducted using LiDAR digital elevation models coupled with relevant GIS layers to assess potential future conditions. Results are provided to the Environmental Management Branch, Master Planning, Construction of Facilities, Engineering Construction Innovation Committee and our regional partners to support Spaceport development, management, and adaptation planning and design. Potential impacts to natural resources include conversion of 50% of the Center to open water, elevation of the surficial aquifer, alterations of rainfall and evapotranspiration patterns, conversion of salt marsh to mangrove forest, reductions in distribution and extent of upland habitats, overwash of the barrier island dune system, increases in heat stress days, and releases of chemicals from legacy contamination sites. CASI has proven successful in bringing climate change planning to KSC including recognition of the need to increase resiliency and development of a green managed shoreline retreat approach to maintain coastal ecosystem services while maximizing life expectancy of Center launch and payload processing resources.

plant communities↗

Applications of VIC for Climate Land Cover Change Imapacts

Study focuses on the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), the LMB is an economically and ecologically important region: (1) One of the largest exporters of rice and fish products, (2) Within top three most biodiverse river basins in the world. Natural climate variability plays an important role in water supply within the region: (1) Short-term climate variability (ENSO, MJO), (2) Long-term climate variability (climate change). Projections of climate change show there will be a decrease in water availability world wide which has implications for food security and ecology. Additional studies show there may be socioeconomic turmoil due to water wars and food security in developing regions such as the Mekong Basin. Southeast Asia has experienced major changes in land use and land cover from 1980 – 2000. Major economic reforms resulting in shift from subsistence farming to market-based agricultural production. Changes in land cover continue to occur which have an important role within the land surface aspect of hydrology.

remote sensing↗

Field Exploration and Life Detection Sampling Through Planetary Analogue Sampling (FELDSPAR).

Exploration missions to Mars rely on rovers to perform analyses over small sampling areas; however, landing sites for these missions are selected based on large-scale, low-resolution remote data. The use of Earth analogue environments to estimate the multi-scale spatial distributions of key signatures of habitability can help ensure mission science goals are met. A main goal of FELDSPAR is to conduct field operations analogous to Mars sample return in its science, operations, and technology from landing site selection, to in-field sampling location selection, remote or stand-off analysis, in situ analysis, and home laboratory analysis. Lava fields and volcanic regions are relevant analogues to Martian landscapes due to desiccation, low nutrient availability, and temperature extremes. Operationally, many Icelandic lava fields are remote enough to require that field expeditions address several sampling constraints that are experienced in robotic exploration, including in situ and sample return missions. The Fimmvruhls lava field was formed by a basaltic effusive eruption associated with the 2010 Eyjafjallajkull eruption. Mlifellssandur is a recently deglaciated plain to the north of the Myrdalsjkull glacier. Holuhraun was formed by a 2014 fissure eruptions just north of the large Vatnajkull glacier. Dyngjusandur is an alluvial plain apparently kept barren by repeated mechanical weathering. Informed by our 2013 expedition, we collected samples in nested triangular grids every decade from the 10 cm scale to the 1 km scale (as permitted by the size of the site). Satellite imagery is available for older sites, and for Mlifellssandur, Holuhraun, and Dyngjusandur we obtained overhead imagery at 1 m to 200 m elevation. PanCam-style photographs were taken in the field by sampling personnel. In-field reflectance spectroscopy was also obtained with an ASD spectrometer in Dyngjusandur. All sites chosen were 'homogeneous' in apparent color, morphology, moisture, grain size, and reflectance spectra at all scales greater than 10 cm. Field lab assays were conducted to monitor microbial habitation, including ATP quantification, qPCR for fungal, bacterial, and archaeal DNA, and direct cell imaging using fluorescence microscopy. Home laboratory analyses include Raman spectroscopy and community sequencing. ATP appeared to be significantly more sensitive to small changes in sampling location than qPCR or fluorescence microscopy. Bacterial and archaeal DNA content were more consistent at the smaller scales, but similarly variable across more distant sites. Conversely, cell counts and fungal DNA content have significant local variation but appear relatively homogeneous over scales of 1 km. ATP, bacterial DNA, and archaeal DNA content were relatively well correlated at many spatial scales. While we have observed spatial variation at various scales and are beginning to observe how that variation fluctuates over time as biodiversity recovers after an eruption, we do not yet fully understand what parameters lead to the observed spatial variation. Home laboratory analyses will help us further understand the elemental and structural composition of the basaltic matrices, but further field analyses are vital for the understanding how temperature, moisture, incident radiation, and so forth influence the habitability of a microclimate.

Field↗

Transforming Science Data for GIS: How to Find and Use NASA Earth Observation Data Without Being a Rocket Scientist

NASAs Earth Observing System Data Information System (EOSDIS) manages Earth Observation satellites and the Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs), where the data is stored and processed. The challenge is that Earth Observation data is complicated. There is plenty of data available, however, the science teams have had a top-down approach: define what it is you are trying to study -select a set of satellite(s) and sensor(s), and drill down for the data.Our alternative is to take a bottom-up approach using eight environmental fields of interest as defined by the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) called Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs): Disaster Resilience (DR) Public Health Surveillance (PHS) Energy and Mineral Resource Management (EMRM) Water Resources Management (WRM) Infrastructure and Transport Management (ITM) Sustainable Urban Development (SUD) Food Security and Sustainable Agriculture (FSSA) Biodiversity and Ecosystems Sustainability (BES).

DAAC↗

Biomass Retrieval from L-Band Polarimetric UAVSAR Backscatter and PRISM Stereo Imagery

The forest above-ground biomass (AGB) and spatial distribution of vegetation elements have profound effects on the productivity and biodiversity of terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, we evaluated biomass estimation from L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data acquired by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle SAR (UAVSAR) and the improvement of accuracy by adding canopy height information derived from stereo imagery acquired by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Panchromatic Remote Sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping (PRISM) on-board the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS). Various models for prediction of forest biomass from UAVSAR data were investigated at pixel sizes of 1/4 ha (50 m x 50 m) and 1 ha. The variance inflation factor (VIF) was calculated for each of the explanatory variables in multivariable regression models to assess the multi-collinearity between explanatory variables. In addition, the t-and p-values were used to interpret the significance of the coefficients of each explanatory variables. The R(exp. 2), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), bias and Akaike information criterion (AIC), and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) and bootstrapping were used to validate models. At 1/4-ha scale, the R(exp. 2) and RMSE of biomass estimation from a model using a single track of polarimetric UAVSAR data were 0.59 and 52.08 Mg/ha. With canopy height from PRISM as additional independent variable, R(exp. 2) increased to 0.76 and RMSE decreased to 39.74 Mg/ha (28.24%). At 1-ha scale, the RMSE of biomass estimation based on UAVSAR data of a single track was 39.42 Mg/ha with a R(exp. 2) of 0.77. With the canopy height from PRISM, R(exp. 2) increased to 0.86 and RMSE decreased to 29.47 Mg/ha (20.18%). The models using UAVSAR data alone underestimated biomass at levels above approximately 150 Mg/ha showing the saturation phenomenon. Adding canopy height from PRISM stereo imagery significantly improved the biomass estimation and elevated the saturation level in estimating biomass. Combined use of UAVSAR data acquired from opposite directions (odd and even tracks) slightly improved the biomass estimation.Combined use of UAVSAR data acquired from opposite directions (odd and even tracks) slightly improved the biomass estimation at 1/4-ha scale, R(exp. 2) increased from 0.59 to 0.66 and RMSE reduced from 52.08 to 48.57 Mg/ha. Averaging multiple acquisitions of UAVSAR data from the same look azimuth direction did not improve biomass estimation. A biomass map derived from NASA's LVIS (Laser Vegetation Imaging System) wave-form data was used as a reference for evaluation of the biomass maps from these models. The study has also shown that the errors decreased when deciduous, evergreen, and mixed forests were modeled separately but the improvement was not significant

Zhang, Zhiyu↗

Historical Carbon Dioxide Emissions Caused by Land-Use Changes are Possibly Larger than Assumed

The terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 20% of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. The overall magnitude of this sink is constrained by the difference between emissions, the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and the ocean sink. However, the land sink is actually composed of two largely counteracting fluxes that are poorly quantified: fluxes from land-use change andCO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems. Dynamic global vegetation model simulations suggest that CO2 emissions from land-use change have been substantially underestimated because processes such as tree harvesting and land clearing from shifting cultivation have not been considered. As the overall terrestrial sink is constrained, a larger net flux as a result of land-use change implies that terrestrial uptake of CO2 is also larger, and that terrestrial ecosystems might have greater potential to sequester carbon in the future. Consequently, reforestation projects and efforts to avoid further deforestation could represent important mitigation pathways, with co-benefits for biodiversity. It is unclear whether a larger land carbon sink can be reconciled with our current understanding of terrestrial carbon cycling. Our possible underestimation of the historical residual terrestrial carbon sink adds further uncertainty to our capacity to predict the future of terrestrial carbon uptake and losses.

Arneth, A.↗

Landsat at 45: How it Changed the Way We See the Earth

On October 24, 1946, more than 10 years before the launch of the first artificial satellite Sputnik, scientists at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico placed a camera on top of a captured German V-2 ballistic missile. As the rocket flew to an altitude of about 65 miles - just above the generally recognized border of outer space - the 35-millimeter motion picture camera snapped a frame every one and a half seconds. Minutes later, the missile came crashing back down and slammed into the ground at more than 340 mph, but the film survived and gave us our first glimpse of Earth from space. Earth Resources Technology Satellite aka Landsat It was images like those first grainy black and white pictures and later those taken by America's first astronauts in the 1960's that inspired the development of the Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS). From the unique vantage point of space, we could now observe Earth using a variety of different instruments to monitor changes over time. The ERTS-1 satellite, wisely renamed Landsat-1, was launched aboard a Delta rocket on July 23, 1972, into a Sun-synchronous polar orbit at an altitude of about 560 miles. In this unique orbit, Landsat could observe the same point on the Earth every 18 days, always with the same solar illumination, allowing for precise monitoring of changes on the ground over time. Landsat-1, derived from the highly successful Nimbus weather satellites, carried two instruments that allowed it to take images not only in visible light but also in infrared, well-suited to track changes in vegetation over time. Designed to last only one year, Landsat-1 actually operated for nearly three years, by which time it had been joined in space by Landsat-2, a near identical copy of the original. Since then, ever more sophisticated instruments were flown aboard Landsat-3 through -8, with Landsat-9 planned for launch in 2020, acquiring millions of images of Earth over more than four decades. At first, images from Landsat were processed by NASA and hardcopies sold to users for a fee, a somewhat tedious process. Since 2008, images have been made available to all interested users by the US Geological Survey (USGS) at no cost via the Internet in near real time. So, how can Landsat help? In short, Landsat looks. And looks. And proves Yogi right. Space-based images from Landsat and other similar satellites offer a unique and critical capability to observe land use over time by providing repetitive observations of the Earth otherwise unavailable. The data provided by the images can be used by scientists and politicians to inform wise decisions in areas such as agriculture, climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, energy, forest management, human health, fire, natural disasters, urban growth and water management. This overview article doesn't allow for examples from each of these disciplines, but details can be found at the following website: https://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/how_landsat_helps/. One third of the US economy is influenced by climate, weather and natural hazards, providing strong economic incentives to sustain a healthy space-based Earth observation program. One example, however, may be illustrative of how Landsat and other space-based observations can be helpful in monitoring and documenting some effects of global climate change. It had been noted since the 1970's that permafrost in subarctic areas like Siberia was melting at an accelerating rate. It also became apparent that this led to the formation of hundreds of melt lakes and the liberation of large quantities of methane, a gas that in the short-term has more potent greenhouse effects than carbon dioxide. The methane turned the water in these lakes blue, making them easy to track over time by satellite. Additionally, the newly released methane has been carbon dated to tens of thousands of years ago, meaning that it had remained frozen since the last Ice Age and therefore hadn't been accounted for in models of the Earth's overall carbon balance. Release of sufficient methane by an increasingly warming climate could actually cause a positive feedback loop in global warming, melting more permafrost and releasing yet more methane. Further monitoring by Landsat and other platforms will reveal whether this process is reversible or whether we've passed the tipping point. In addition to the highly successful Landsat series of satellites, NASA and other agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operate a fleet of other Earth observing platforms, many with more specific research goals such as monitoring sea ice levels or atmospheric carbon content. Several instruments aboard the International Space Station also contribute to this overall effort to better understand short- and long-term changes to the Earth. Many of these missions are guided by the 2009 Decadal Survey published by the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences. Europe, Russia and China all see the value of space-based Earth observation by deploying their own fleet of satellites.

Uri, John↗

Cross-Disciplinarity in the Advance of Antarctic Ecosystem Research

The biodiversity, ecosystem services and climate variability of the Antarctic continent, and the Southern Ocean are major components of the whole Earth system. Antarctic ecosystems are driven more strongly by the physical environment than many other marine and terrestrial ecosystems. As a consequence, to understand ecological functioning, cross-disciplinary studies are especially important in Antarctic research. The conceptual study presented here is based on a workshop initiated by the Research Programme Antarctic Thresholds - Ecosystem Resilience and Adaption of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, which focused on challenges in identifying and applying cross-disciplinary approaches in the Antarctic. Novel ideas, and first steps in their implementation, were clustered into eight themes, ranging from scale problems, risk maps, organism and ecosystem responses to multiple environmental changes, to evolutionary processes. Scaling models and data across different spatial and temporal scales were identified as an overarching challenge. Approaches to bridge gaps in the research programmes included multi-disciplinary monitoring, linking biomolecular findings and simulated physical environments, as well as integrative ecological modelling. New strategies in academic education are proposed. The results of advanced cross-disciplinary approaches can contribute significantly to our knowledge of ecosystem functioning, the consequences of climate change, and to global assessments that ultimately benefit humankind.

Scaling↗

Threats to North American Forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption oflocal ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.

risk↗

NeMO-Net & Fluid Lensing: The Neural Multi-Modal Observation & Training Network for Global Coral Reef Assessment Using Fluid Lensing Augmentation of NASA EOS Data

We present preliminary results from NASA NeMO-Net, the first neural multi-modal observation and training network for global coral reef assessment. NeMO-Net is an open-source deep convolutional neural network (CNN) and interactive active learning training software in development which will assess the present and past dynamics of coral reef ecosystems. NeMO-Net exploits active learning and data fusion of mm-scale remotely sensed 3D images of coral reefs captured using fluid lensing with the NASA FluidCam instrument, presently the highest-resolution remote sensing benthic imaging technology capable of removing ocean wave distortion, as well as hyperspectral airborne remote sensing data from the ongoing NASA CORAL mission and lower-resolution satellite data to determine coral reef ecosystem makeup globally at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales. Aquatic ecosystems, particularly coral reefs, remain quantitatively misrepresented by low-resolution remote sensing as a result of refractive distortion from ocean waves, optical attenuation, and remoteness. Machine learning classification of coral reefs using FluidCam mm-scale 3D data show that present satellite and airborne remote sensing techniques poorly characterize coral reef percent living cover, morphology type, and species breakdown at the mm, cm, and meter scales. Indeed, current global assessments of coral reef cover and morphology classification based on km-scale satellite data alone can suffer from segmentation errors greater than 40%, capable of change detection only on yearly temporal scales and decameter spatial scales, significantly hindering our understanding of patterns and processes in marine biodiversity at a time when these ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented anthropogenic pressures, ocean acidification, and sea surface temperature rise. NeMO-Net leverages our augmented machine learning algorithm that demonstrates data fusion of regional FluidCam (mm, cm-scale) airborne remote sensing with global low-resolution (m, km-scale) airborne and spaceborne imagery to reduce classification errors up to 80% over regional scales. Such technologies can substantially enhance our ability to assess coral reef ecosystems dynamics.

satellite data↗

Simulating Forest Dynamics of Lowland Rainforests in Eastern Madagascar

Ecological modeling and forecasting are essential tools for the understanding of complex vegetation dynamics. The parametric demands of some of these models are often lacking or scant for threatened ecosystems, particularly in diverse tropical ecosystems. One such ecosystem and also one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, Madagascar's lowland rainforests, have disappeared at an alarming rate. The processes that drive tree species growth and distribution remain as poorly understood as the species themselves. We investigated the application of the process-based individual-based FORMIND model to successfully simulate a Madagascar lowland rainforest using previously collected multi-year forest inventory plot data. We inspected the model's ability to characterize growth and species abundance distributions over the study site, and then validated the model with an independently collected forest-inventory dataset from another lowland rainforest in eastern Madagascar. Following a comparative analysis using inventory data from the two study sites, we found that FORMIND accurately captures the structure and biomass of the study forest, with r(squared) values of 0.976, 0.895, and 0.995 for 1:1 lines comparing observed and simulated values across all plant functional types for aboveground biomass (tonnes/ha), stem numbers, and basal area (m(squared)/ha), respectively. Further, in validation with a second study forest site, FORMIND also compared well, only slightly over-estimating shade-intermediate species as compared to the study site, and slightly under-representing shade-tolerant species in percentage of total aboveground biomass. As an important application of the FORMIND model, we measured the net ecosystem exchange (NEE, in tons of carbon per hectare per year) for 50 ha of simulated forest over a 1000-year run from bare ground. We found that NEE values ranged between 1 and -1 t Cha(exp -1)year(exp -1), consequently the study forest can be considered as a net neutral or a very slight carbon sink ecosystem, after the initial 130 years of growth. Our study found that FORMIND represents a valuable tool toward simulating forest dynamics in the immensely diverse Madagascar rainforests.

Forest Productivity↗