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Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Project Calibration and Validation for the L4_C Beta-Release Data Product - Volume 42

During the post-launch Cal/Val Phase of SMAP there are two objectives for each science product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the L1 science requirements according to the Cal/Val timeline. This report provides analysis and assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product specifically for the beta release. The beta-release version of the SMAP L4_C algorithms utilizes a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by SMAP soil moisture inputs along with optical remote sensing (e.g. MODIS) vegetation indices and other ancillary biophysical data to estimate global daily NEE and component carbon fluxes, particularly vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). Other L4_C product elements include surface (<10 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture and landscape FT controls on GPP and Reco (Kimball et al. 2012). The L4_C product encapsulates SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity in northern ecosystems.

Cal/Val↗

Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission L4_C Data Product Assessment (Version 2 Validated Release)

The SMAP satellite was successfully launched January 31st 2015, and began acquiring Earth observation data following in-orbit sensor calibration. Global data products derived from the SMAP L-band microwave measurements include Level 1 calibrated and geolocated radiometric brightness temperatures, Level 23 surface soil moisture and freezethaw geophysical retrievals mapped to a fixed Earth grid, and model enhanced Level 4 data products for surface to root zone soil moisture and terrestrial carbon (CO2) fluxes. The post-launch SMAP mission CalVal Phase had two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the L1 science requirements. This report provides analysis and assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product pertaining to the validated release. The L4_C validated product release effectively replaces an earlier L4_C beta-product release (Kimball et al. 2015). The validated release described in this report incorporates a longer data record and benefits from algorithm and CalVal refinements acquired during the SMAP post-launch CalVal intensive period. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by SMAP soil moisture inputs along with optical remote sensing (e.g. MODIS) vegetation indices and other ancillary biophysical data to estimate global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and component carbon fluxes for vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). Other L4_C product elements include surface (10 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture and landscape freeze/thaw (FT) controls on GPP and respiration (Kimball et al. 2012). The L4_C product encapsulates SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying FT and soil moisture constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity in northern ecosystems. There are no L1 science requirements for the L4_C product; however self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications; however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased accuracy (ubRMSE) for NEE of 1.6 g C/sq m/d or 30 g C/sq m/yr, emphasizing northern (45N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this is similar to the estimated accuracy level of in situ tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008).

Cal/Val↗

Validation Assessment for the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) Data Product Version 5

The post-launch Cal/Val phase of the SMAP mission is guided by two primary objectives for each science product team: 1) to calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithms, and 2) validate accuracies of the science data products as specified in the SMAP Level-1 mission science requirements. Algorithm science and product maintenance activities during the SMAP extended mission phase have also involved periodic algorithm calibration and product refinements to maintain or enhance product consistency and performance as well as science utility. This report provides an assessment of the latest (Version 5) SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product. The L4_C Version 5 (v5) global record now spans more than six years (March 2015 – present) of SMAP operations and has benefited from five major reprocessing updates to the operational product. These reprocessing events and L4_C product release updates have incorporated various algorithm refinements and calibration adjustments to account for similar refinements to the upstream GEOS land model assimilation system, SMAP brightness temperatures, and MODIS vegetation inputs used for L4_C processing. The SMAP L4_C algorithms utilize a terrestrial carbon flux model informed by daily surface and root zone soil moisture information contributed from the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product along with optical remote sensing-based (e.g. MODIS-based) land cover and canopy fractional photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR), and other ancillary biophysical data. The carbon flux model estimates global daily net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and the component carbon fluxes, namely, vegetation gross primary production (GPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh). Other L4_C product elements include surface (~0-5 cm depth) soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and associated environmental constraints to these processes, including soil moisture-related controls on GPP and ecosystem respiration (Kimball et al. 2014, Jones et al. 2017). The L4_C product addresses SMAP carbon cycle science objectives by: 1) providing a direct link between terrestrial carbon fluxes and underlying freeze/thaw and soil moisture-related constraints to these processes, 2) documenting primary connections between terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, and 3) improving understanding of terrestrial carbon sink activity. The SMAP L4_C algorithms and operational product are mature and at a CEOS Validation Stage 4 level (Jackson et al. 2012) based on extensive validation of the multi-year record against a diverse array of independent benchmarks, well characterized global performance, and systematic refinements gained from five major reprocessing events. There are no Level-1 mission science requirements for the L4_C product; however, self-imposed requirements have been established focusing on NEE as the primary product field for validation, and on demonstrating L4_C accuracy and success in meeting product science requirements (Jackson et al. 2012). The other L4_C product fields also have strong utility for carbon science applications (e.g., Liu et al. 2019, Endsley et al. 2020); however, analysis of these other fields is considered secondary relative to primary validation activities focusing on NEE. The L4_C targeted accuracy requirements are to meet or exceed a mean unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE, or standard deviation of the error) for NEE of 1.6 g C m-2 d-1 and 30 g C m-2 yr-1, emphasizing northern (≥45°N) boreal and arctic ecosystems; this accuracy is similar to that of tower eddy covariance measurement-based observations (Baldocchi 2008). Methods used for the latest v5 L4_C product performance and validation assessment have been established from the SMAP Cal/Val plan and previous studies (Jackson et al. 2012, Jones et al. 2017) and include: 1) consistency evaluations of the product fields against earlier product releases (version 4 or earlier); 2) comparisons of daily carbon flux estimates with independent tower eddy 4covariance measurement-based daily carbon (CO2) flux observations from core tower validation sites (CVS); and 3) consistency checks against other global carbon products, including soil carbon inventory records, global GPP records derived from tower observation upscaling methods, and satellite-based observations of canopy solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) as a surrogate for GPP. Metrics used to evaluate relative agreement between L4_C product fields and observational benchmarks include correlation (r-value), RMSE differences, bias and model sensitivity diagnostics. Following these validation criteria, the present report provides a validation assessment of the latest L4_C product release (v5). Detailed descriptions of the L4_C algorithm and additional global product accuracy and performance results are given elsewhere (Jones et al. 2017, Endsley et al. 2020). The v5 L4_C product replaces earlier product versions and continues to show: (i) accuracy and performance levels meeting or exceeding SMAP L4_C science requirements; (ii) improvement over the previous product version (version 4); and (iii) suitability for a diversity of science applications. Example L4_C applications from the recent literature include clarifying environmental trends and controls on the northern terrestrial carbon sink (Liu et al. 2019), diagnosing drought-related impacts on ecosystem productivity (Li et al. 2020), and regional monitoring of cropland conditions for projecting annual yields (Wurster et al. 2020). 2EXPECTED L4_C ALGORITHM AND PRODUCTPERFORMANCE The L4_C algorithm performance, including variance and uncertainty estimates of model outputs, was determined during the mission pre-launch phase through spatially explicit model sensitivity studies using available model inputs similar to those currently being used for operational production and evaluating the resulting model simulations over the observed range of northern (≥45 °N) and global conditions (Kimball et al. 2012, Entekhabi et al. 2014). The L4_C algorithm options were also evaluated during the mission prelaunch phase, including deriving canopy fPAR from lower order NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) inputs in lieu of using MODIS (MOD15) fPAR; and including an explicit model representation of boreal fire disturbance recovery impacts. These results indicated that the L4_C accuracy requirements (i.e., NEE ubRMSE ≤ 30 g C m-2 yr-1or ≤ 1.6 g C m-2 d-1) could be met from the baseline algorithms over more than 82% and 89% of global and northern vegetated land areas, respectively (Yi et al. 2013, Kimball et al. 2014). The global L4_C algorithm error budget for NEE derived during the mission prelaunch phase indicated that the estimated NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is proportional to GPP and is therefore larger in higher biomass productivity areas, including forests and croplands (Kimball et al. 2014). Likewise, NEE ubRMSE uncertainty is expected to be lower in less-productive areas, including grasslands and shrublands. Expected model NEE ubRMSE levels were also generally within targeted accuracy levels for characteristically less-productive boreal and Arctic biomes, even though relative model error as a proportion of total productivity (NEE RMSE / GPP) may be large in these areas. The estimated NEE uncertainty was lower than expected in some warmer tropical high biomass productivity areas (e.g. Amazon rainforest) because of reduced low temperature and moisture constraints to the L4_C respiration calculations so that the bulk of model uncertainty is contributed by GPP in these areas. Model NEE uncertainty in the African Congo was estimated to

SMAP↗

The seasonal cycle of carbon dioxide on Mars

Results of Viking investigations relevant to the CO2 cycle on Mars are presented, and the extensive modeling efforts directed towards understanding this cycle and its couplings to the seasonal cycles of water and dust are reviewed. It is found that winter condensation is suppressed either because the solid CO2 deposits are inefficient radiators or because of the scattering effects of CO2 clouds. With regard to the qualitative difference between the spring regression curves and between the wind systems for the two seasonal caps, it is suggested that the greater amount of aerosols in the atmosphere during northern winter results in a greater proportion of atmospheric condensation there than in the south. The seasonal pressure curves obtained by the Viking Landers during four Martian years are remarkably similar. It is suggested that the CO2 cycle is not sensitive to atmospheric dust and the meteorological variations accompanying global storms or that some subtle cancellation between different mechanisms suppresses variations.

James, Philip B.↗

Precambrian organic geochemistry - Preservation of the record

A review of earlier studies is presented, and new results in Precambrian organic geochemistry are discussed. It is pointed out that two lines of evidence can be developed. One is based on structural organic chemistry, while the other is based on isotopic analyses. In the present investigation, the results of both structural and isotopic investigations of Precambrian organic matter are discussed. Processes and products related to organic geochemistry are examined, taking into account the carbon cycle, an approximate view of the principal pathways of carbon cycling associated with organic matter in the present global ecosystem, processes affecting sedimentary organic matter, and distribution and types of organic matter. Attention is given to chemical fossils in Precambrian sediments, kerogen analyses, the determination of the structural characteristics of kerogen, and data concerning the preservation of the Precambrian organic geochemical record.

Hayes, J. M.↗

Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Taylor, Lyla L.↗

Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification - Supplementary Information

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp. -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Taylor, Lyla L.↗

J. E. Nichols and D. M. Peteet reply

The quantification of northern peatland carbon stocks is vital to our understanding of the global carbon cycle, and we welcome the opportunity to respond to the comments submitted in the preceding “Matters Arising” (Yu et al., Ratcliffe et al.). In response to Yu et al., we provide additional clarification of how data from the Neotoma Paleoecological Database (NPD) are stored and used. We also repeated our quantification of northern peat carbon stocks using only radiocarbon data vetted by other publications. However, our conclusions are unchanged by the elimination of the additional data. We respond to Ratcliffe et al. by addressing the conflict between the “time-history” and “inventory methods.” We calculated northern peatland carbon stocks by the inventory method using our dataset and carefully quantify the uncertainties. We find that while the mean values for carbon stock differ by twofold, the uncertainties around those means are larger than previously acknowledged and are overlapping. This result emphasizes the need for continued work by the carbon cycle science community to understand and quantify uncertainty in terrestrial carbon stock estimates.

Peatlands↗

Comments on the BLAG model - The carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle and its effect on atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past 100 million years

A self-consistent method of determining initial conditions for the model presented by Berner, Lasaga, and Garrels (1983) (henceforth, the BLAG model) is derived, based on the assumption that the CO2 geochemical cycle was in steady state at t = -100 m.y. (million years). This initialization procedure leads to a dissolved magnesium concentration higher than that calculated by Berner, Lasaga, and Garrels and to a low ratio of dissolved calcium to bicarbonate prior to 60 m.y. ago. The latter prediction conflicts with the geologic record of evaporite deposits, which requires that this ratio remain greater than 0.5. The contradiction is probably caused by oversimplifications in the BLAG model, such as the neglect of the cycles of organic carbon and sulfur.

Kasting, J. F.↗

Comments on the BLAG model: the carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle and its effect on atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past 100 million years

A self-consistent method of determining initial conditions for the model presented by Berner, Lasaga, and Garrels (1983) (henceforth, the BLAG model) is derived, based on the assumption that the CO2 geochemical cycle was in steady state at t = -100 my (million years). This initialization procedure leads to a dissolved magnesium concentration higher than that calculated by Berner, Lasaga, and Garrels and to a low ratio of dissolved calcium to bicarbonate prior to 60 my ago. The latter prediction conflicts with the geologic record of evaporite deposits, which requires that this ratio remain greater than 0.5. The contradiction is probably caused by oversimplifications in the BLAG model, such as the neglect of the cycles of organic carbon and sulfur.

Evolution, Planetary↗

Carbon Dioxide Cycling And The Climate of Ancient Earth

The continental cycle of silicate weathering and metamorphism dynamically buffers atmospheric CO2 and climate. Feedback is provided by the strong temperature dependence of silicate weathering. Here we argue that hydrothermal alteration of oceanic basalts also dynamically buffers CO2. The oceanic cycle links with the mantle via subduction and the midocean ridges. Feedback is provided by the dependence of carbonatization on dissolved carbonates in seawater. Unlike the continental cycle, the oceanic cycle has no thermostat. Currently the continental cycle is more important, but earlier in Earth's history, especially if heat flow were higher than it is now, more vigorous plate tectonics would have made the oceanic cycle dominant. We find that CO2 greenhouses thick enough to defeat the faint early sun are implausible and that, if no other greenhouse gases are invoked, very cold climates are expected for much of the Proterozoic and the Archean. We echo current fashion and favor biogenic methane as the chief supplement to CO2. Fast weathering and probable subduction of abundant impact ejecta would have reduced CO2 levels still further in the Hadean. Despite its name, the Hadean would have been the coldest era in the history of the Earth.

Zahnle, Kevin↗

Carbon Dioxide Cycling and the Climate of Ancient Earth

The continental cycle of silicate weathering and metamorphism dynamically buffers atmospheric CO2 and climate. Feedback is provided by the strong temperature dependence of silicate weathering. Here we argue that hydrothermal alteration of oceanic basalts also dynamically buffers CO2. The oceanic cycle links with the mantle via subduction and the midocean ridges. Feedback is provided by the dependence of carbonatization on dissolved carbonates in seawater. Unlike the continental cycle, the oceanic cycle has no thermostat. Currently the continental cycle is more important, but earlier in Earth's history, especially if heat flow were higher than it is now, more vigorous plate tectonics would have made the oceanic cycle dominant. We find that CO2 greenhouses thick enough to defeat the faint early Sun are implausible and that, if no other greenhouse gases are invoked, very cold climates are expected for much of the Proterozoic and the Archean. We echo current fashion and favor biogenic methane as the chief supplement to CO2. Fast weathering and probable subduction of abundant impact ejecta would have reduced CO2 levels still further in the Hadean. Despite its name, the Hadean would have been the coldest era in the history of the Earth.

Zahnle, Kevin↗

Causes of slowing‐down seasonal CO2 amplitude at Mauna Loa

Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO2 record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (p < .01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing‐down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO2 fertilization. This challenges the view that CO2 fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land–atmosphere CO2 flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs.

Mauna Loa↗

Modeling the Dynamics and Export of Dissolved Organic Matter in the Northeastern U.S. Continental Shelf

Continental shelves are believed to play a major role in carbon cycling due to their high productivity. Particulate organic carbon (POC) burial has been included in models as a carbon sink, but we show here that seasonally produced dissolved organic carbon (DOC) on the shelf can be exported to the open ocean by horizontal transport at similar rates (1-2 mol C/sq m/yr) in the southern U.S. Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB). The dissolved organic matter (DOM) model imbedded in a coupled circulation-biogeochemical model reveals a double dynamics: the progressive release of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) in the upper layer during summer increases the regenerated primary production by 30 to 300%, which, in turns ; enhances the DOC production mainly from phytoplankton exudation in the upper layer and solubilization of particulate organic matter (POM) deeper in the water column. This analysis suggests that DOM is a key element for better representing the ecosystem functioning and organic fluxes in models because DOM (1) is a major organic pool directly related to primary production, (2) decouples partially the carbon and nitrogen cycles (through carbon excess uptake, POM solubilization and DOM mineralization) and (3) is intimately linked to the residence time of water masses for its distribution and export.

Druon, J.N.↗

The Science and Application of Satellite Based Fire Radiative Energy

The accurate measurement of ecosystem biomass is of great importance in scientific, resource management and energy sectors. In particular, biomass is a direct measurement of carbon storage within an ecosystem and of great importance for carbon cycle science and carbon emission mitigation. Remote Sensing is the most accurate tool for global biomass measurements because of the ability to measure large areas. Current biomass estimates are derived primarily from ground-based samples, as compiled and reported in inventories and ecosystem samples. By using remote sensing technologies, we are able to scale up the sample values and supply wall to wall mapping of biomass.

Remote Sensing↗

Definition, Capabilities, and Components of a Terrestrial Carbon Monitoring System

Research efforts for effectively and consistently monitoring terrestrial carbon are increasing in number. As such, there is a need to define carbon monitoring and how it relates to carbon cycle science and carbon management. There is also a need to identify capabilities of a carbon monitoring system and the system components needed to develop the capabilities. Capabilities that enable the effective application of a carbon monitoring system for monitoring and management purposes may include: reconciling carbon stocks and fluxes, developing consistency across spatial and temporal scales, tracking horizontal movement of carbon, attribution of emissions to originating sources, cross-sectoral accounting, uncertainty quantification, redundancy and policy relevance. Focused research is needed to integrate these capabilities for sustained estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes. Additionally, if monitoring is intended to inform management decisions, management priorities should be considered prior to development of a monitoring system.

Terrestrial↗

A Probabilistic Method of Assessing Carbon Accumulation Rate at Imnavait Creek Peatland, Arctic Long Term Ecological Research Station, Alaska

Arctic peatlands are an important part of the global carbon cycle, accumulating atmospheric carbon as organic matter since the Late glacial. Current methods for understanding the changing efficiency of the peatland carbon sink rely on peatlands with an undisturbed stratigraphy. Here we present a method of estimating primary carbon accumulation rate from a site where permafrost processes have either vertically or horizontally translocated nearby carbon-rich sediment out of stratigraphic order. Briefly, our new algorithm estimates the probability of the age of deposition of a random increment of sediment in the core. The method assumes that if sediment age is measured at even depth increments, dates are more likely to occur during intervals of higher accumulation rate and vice versa. Multiplying estimated sedimentation rate by measured carbon density yields carbon accumulation rate. We perform this analysis at the Imnavait Creek Peatland, near the Arctic Long Term Ecological Research network site at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Using classical radiocarbon age modeling, we find unreasonably high rates of carbon accumulation at various Holocene intervals. With our new method, we find accumulation rate changes that are in improved agreement within the context of other sites throughout Alaska and the rest of the Circum-Arctic region.

carbon accumulation;Imnavait;peatlands;permafrost;↗

Exploring Coupled Land-Atmosphere Carbon Dynamics and Seasonal Carbon Forecast Skill

Terrestrial biosphere is an integral part of the climate system and plays a vital role in controlling the dynamics of the Earth’s carbon cycle. In this talk, I will present recent efforts to explore coupled land-atmosphere carbon dynamics and seasonal carbon cycle predictability. First, by imposing an idealized spring drought in coupled land‐atmosphere ensemble simulations, we investigated the impact of a regional drought on land and atmospheric carbon. Through the drought-induced impact on remote meteorology, the capability of the land’s carbon uptake is altered in both the drought area and the adjacent areas. The induced anomalies of the atmospheric CO2 extend to an area up to three times of that of the imposed drought, which suggests that atmospheric transport needs to be considered in the interpretation of the drought impact on carbon anomalies. Increase in column‐averaged monthly CO2 is at the edge of the uncertainty from single soundings of current greenhouse gas observing satellites. Secondly, the seasonal carbon forecast skill was explored using NASA’s subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble forecast and terrestrial biosphere model. The result demonstrates an ability to accurately predict spring-summer carbon uptake in the Northern Hemisphere mid and high latitude land at multi-month leads. The prediction skill appears to be achieved by accurate forecasts of snow removal timing, which provides a latent predictability to the forecast system, and by proper initialization of carbon and nitrogen states. Additionally, I will briefly discuss other ongoing research to improve hydrometeorological prediction by integrating biogeochemical processes, to evaluate forecast skill of wildfire carbon, and to apply subseasonal forecasts to water resources management.

Eunjee Lee↗