Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “climate observations”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Dairy Methane Emissions in California's San Joaquin Valley Inferred With Ground‐Based Remote Sensing Observations in the Summer and Winter

Abstract The dairy industry in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) is one of California’s largest methane (CH 4 ) sources. Reducing dairy emissions is a priority for the state’s climate change plans. Observations of current dairy CH 4 emissions are key to monitoring actions taken toward this goal. To help support this, we present new ground‐based measurements of atmospheric column‐averaged CH 4 mixing ratio (XCH 4 ) gradients across a group of 600 dairies in the central SJV using EM27/SUN solar spectrometers. We used measurements from the 2019 summer and 2020 winter seasons for a top‐down emission inversion based on the WRF‐STILT model. Our top‐down estimates of the region’s dairy emissions range from 90% to 183% of the current CALGEM inventory’s emissions of 277 Gg/yr. In contrast to the strong temperature dependence found by earlier dairy CH 4 emission studies, we also find that our top‐down emissions during the winter measurement days are comparable to the summer measurement days, possibly due to seasonal changes in dairy management practices and meteorological conditions. Furthermore, we find significant interday variability in our measurements and find that our emission estimates overlap with earlier top‐down studies and bottom‐up inventories in this region. Our study demonstrates how analysis of ground‐based remotely sensed CH 4 gradient observations can help improve our understanding of CH 4 sources at scales relevant to mitigation policy. It also reflects the need for long‐term monitoring of CH 4 emissions in the region and at individual facilities to better understand their emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Subpolar North Atlantic Mean State Affects the Response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP6 Models

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays an important role in climate, transporting heat and salt to the subpolar North Atlantic. The AMOC’s variability is sensitive to atmospheric forcing, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Because AMOC observations are short, climate models are a valuable tool to study the AMOC’s variability. Yet, there are known issues with climate models, like uncertainties and systematic biases. To investigate this, preindustrial control experiments from models participating in the phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated. There is a large, but correlated, spread in the models’ subpolar gyre mean surface temperature and salinity. By splitting models into groups of either a warm–salty or cold–fresh subpolar gyre, it is shown that warm–salty models have a lower sea ice cover in the Labrador Sea and, hence, enable a larger heat loss during a positive NAO. Stratification in the Labrador Sea is also weaker in warm–salty models, such that the larger NAO-related heat loss can also affect greater depths. As a result, subsurface density anomalies are much stronger in the warm–salty models than in those that tend to be cold and fresh. As these anomalies propagate southward along the western boundary, they establish a zonal density gradient anomaly that promotes a stronger delayed AMOC response to the NAO in the warm–salty models. These findings demonstrate how model mean state errors are linked across variables and affect variability, emphasizing the need for improvement of the subpolar North Atlantic mean states in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Earth System Reanalysis in Support of Climate Model Improvements

Recent climate model developments, established through increased model resolution, have led to substantial improvements in model simulations of the time-evolving, coupled Earth system and its subcomponents. However, regardless of resolution, climate models will always produce climate features and variability that differ from the real world and will be prone to biases. This is due to many remaining uncertainties, such as in parametric and structural model uncertainty, in the initial conditions prescribed, and in the prescribed (scenario) forcing which varies on decadal to centennial timescales. Further model improvements are expected to arise specifically from improved representation of physical processes realized through model-data fusion. This will create an unprecedented opportunity to better exploit a large array of Earth observations, from in situ measurements to weather radars and satellite observations, as the resolved scales of the models approach those of the observations. For this, climate DA will be the central tool to bring models and observations into consistency, by improving initial conditions, inferring uncertain model parameters and structure, and quantifying uncertainty. Generally, there will be advantages and complementarities of adjoint-based smoother approaches, ensemble-based filter approaches, or new ML-inspired approaches. Yet, the ever-increasing model resolution will present growing challenges arising from computational cost, calling for new ways of performing data assimilation and model optimization. Using the complementarity in a hybrid approach, blending tools and concepts from variational, ensemble and ML methods might be what is required in the future. In this context ML could be important to handle non-linear responses, and to better approximate non-Gaussian distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Effects of Global Change on Ecosystem Processes in a Tropical Rainforest

Ongoing land-use change and climate change in wet tropical forests can potentially drive shifts in tree species composition, representing a change in individual species within a functional group, tropical evergreen trees. The impacts on the global carbon cycle are potentially large, but unclear. We explored the differential effects of species within this functional group, in comparison with the effects of climate change, using the Century model as a research tool. Simulating effects of individual tree species on biome-level biogeochemical cycles constituted a novel application for Century. Background and Objectives: A unique, long-term, replicated field experiment containing five evergreen tree species in monodominant stands under similar environmental conditions in a Costa Rican wet forest provided data for model evaluation. Our objectives were to gain insights about this forest’s biogeochemical cycles and effects of tree species within this functional group, in comparison with climate change. Materials and Methods: We calibrated Century, using long-term meteorological, soil, and plant data from the field-based experiment. In modeling experiments, we evaluated effects on forest biogeochemistry of eight plant traits that were both observed and modeled. Climate-change simulation experiments represented two climate-change aspects observed in this region. Results: Model calibration revealed that unmodeled soil processes would be required to sustain observed P budgets. In species-traits experiments, three separate plant traits (leaf death rate, leaf C:N, and allocation to fine roots) resulted in modeled biomass C stock changes of >50%, compared with a maximum 21% change in the climate-change experiments. Conclusions: Modeled ecosystem properties and processes in Century were sensitive to changes in plant traits and nutrient limitations to productivity. Realistic model output was attainable for some species, but unusual plant traits thwarted predictions for one species. Including more plant traits and soil processes could increase realism, but less-complex models provide an accessible means for exploring plant-soil-atmosphere interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Microbial extracellular enzyme activity with simulated climate change

It is critical to understand the consequences of environmental change for the microbial regulation of carbon and nutrient cycling. Specifically, understanding microbial community traits, such as extracellular enzyme activity, can help inform nutrient cycling models and address knowledge gaps. We analyzed data on extracellular enzyme activities and litter decomposition from an 18-month experiment in which microbial communities were reciprocally transplanted along a climate gradient in Southern California. Communities were from desert, scrubland, grassland, pine–oak, and subalpine ecosystems. We aimed to test how enzyme activities responded to climate change following transplantation and how those responses related to decomposition rates. We hypothesized that microbial communities would specialize on their native climate conditions, resulting in higher enzyme activities when transplanted back into their native climate. We investigated the relationship between extracellular enzyme Vmax values, substrate mass loss, and microbial biomass as well as variation in these variables across the climate gradient. We found little evidence for climate specialization, and there was rarely a reduction in enzyme functioning after microbial communities were transplanted into new climate conditions. Moreover, observed differences in decomposition were not related to changes in extracellular enzyme potential, although there were significant differences in enzyme activities and decomposition rates across sites. These results suggest that direct, physiological impacts of climate are likely to be important for enzyme-mediated decomposition, but climate specialization will not constrain the microbial response to climate change in our system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

SMART Subsea Cables for Observing the Earth and Ocean, Mitigating Environmental Hazards, and Supporting the Blue Economy

The Joint Task Force, Science Monitoring And Reliable Telecommunications (JTF SMART) Subsea Cables, is working to integrate environmental sensors for ocean bottom temperature, pressure, and seismic acceleration into submarine telecommunications cables. The purpose of SMART Cables is to support climate and ocean observation, sea level monitoring, observations of Earth structure, and tsunami and earthquake early warning and disaster risk reduction, including hazard quantification. Recent advances include regional SMART pilot systems that are the first steps to trans-ocean and global implementation. Examples of pilots include: InSEA wet demonstration project off Sicily at the European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and water column Observatory Western Ionian Facility; New Caledonia and Vanuatu; French Polynesia Natitua South system connecting Tahiti to Tubaui to the south; Indonesia starting with short pilot systems working toward systems for the Sumatra-Java megathrust zone; and the CAM-2 ring system connecting Lisbon, Azores, and Madeira. This paper describes observing system simulations for these and other regions. Funding reflects a blend of government, development bank, philanthropic foundation, and commercial contributions. In addition to notable scientific and societal benefits, the telecommunications enterprise’s mission of global connectivity will benefit directly, as environmental awareness improves both the integrity of individual cable systems as well as the resilience of the overall global communications network. SMART cables support the outcomes of a predicted, safe, and transparent ocean as envisioned by the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development and the Blue Economy. As a continuation of the OceanObs’19 conference and community white paper (Howe et al., 2019, 10.3389/fmars.2019.00424), an overview of the SMART programme and a description of the status of ongoing projects are given.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol

Cloud reflectivity is sensitive to atmospheric aerosol concentrations because aerosols provide the condensation nuclei on which water condenses. Increased aerosol concentrations due to human activity affect droplet number concentration, liquid water and cloud fraction, but these changes are subject to large uncertainties. Ship tracks, long lines of polluted clouds that are visible in satellite images, are one of the main tools for quantifying aerosol–cloud interactions. However, only a small fraction of the clouds polluted by shipping show ship tracks. Here we show that even when no ship tracks are visible in satellite images, aerosol emissions change cloud properties substantially. We develop a new method to quantify the effect of shipping on all clouds, showing a cloud droplet number increase and a more positive liquid water response when there are no visible tracks. We directly detect shipping-induced cloud property changes in the trade cumulus regions of the Atlantic, which are known to display almost no visible tracks. Our results indicate that previous studies of ship tracks were suffering from selection biases by focusing only on visible tracks from satellite imagery. The strong liquid water path response we find translates to a larger aerosol cooling effect on the climate, potentially masking a higher climate sensitivity than observed temperature trends would otherwise suggest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics for El Niño-La Niña asymmetry constrain equatorial-Pacific warming pattern

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results from the instability of and also modulates the strength of the tropical-Pacific cold tongue. While climate models reproduce observed ENSO amplitude relatively well, the majority still simulates its asymmetry between warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases very poorly. The causes of this major deficiency and consequences thereof are so far not well understood. Analysing both reanalyses and climate models, we here show that simulated ENSO asymmetry is largely proportional to subsurface nonlinear dynamical heating (NDH) along the equatorial Pacific thermocline. Most climate models suffer from too-weak NDH and too-weak linear dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupling. Nevertheless, a sizeable subset (about 1/3) having relatively realistic NDH shows that El Niño-likeness of the equatorial-Pacific warming pattern is linearly related to ENSO amplitude change in response to greenhouse warming. Therefore, better simulating the dynamics of ENSO asymmetry potentially reduces uncertainty in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The effect of geographic sampling on evaluation of extreme precipitation in high-resolution climate models

Traditional approaches for comparing global climate models and observational data products typically fail to account for the geographic location of the underlying weather station data. For modern global high-resolution models with a horizontal resolution of tens of kilometers, this is an oversight since there are likely grid cells where the physical output of a climate model is compared with a statistically interpolated quantity instead of actual measurements of the climate system. In this paper, we quantify the impact of geographic sampling on the relative performance of high-resolution climate model representations of precipitation extremes in boreal winter (December–January–February) over the contiguous United States (CONUS), comparing model output from five early submissions to the HighResMIP subproject of the CMIP6 experiment. We find that properly accounting for the geographic sampling of weather stations can significantly change the assessment of model performance. Across the models considered, failing to account for sampling impacts the different metrics (extreme bias, spatial pattern correlation, and spatial variability) in different ways (both increasing and decreasing). We argue that the geographic sampling of weather stations should be accounted for in order to yield a more straightforward and appropriate comparison between models and observational data sets, particularly for high-resolution models with a horizontal resolution of tens of kilometers. While we focus on the CONUS in this paper, our results have important implications for other global land regions where the sampling problem is more severe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-year analysis of physical interactions between solar PV arrays and underlying soil-plant complex in vegetated utility-scale systems

Concerns over the land use changes impacts of solar photovoltaic (PV) development are increasing as PV energy development expands. Co-locating utility-scale solar energy with vegetation may maintain or rehabilitate the land's ability to provide ecosystem services. Previous studies have shown that vegetation under and around the panels may improve the performance of the co-located PV and that PV may create a favorable environment for the growth of vegetation. While there have been some pilot-scale experiments, the existence and magnitude of these benefits of vegetation has not been confirmed in a utility-scale PV facility over multiple years. In this study we use power output data coupled with microclimatic measurements in temperate climates to assess these potential benefits. Here this study combines multi-year microclimatic measurements to analyze the physical interactions between PV arrays and the underlying soil-vegetation system in three utility-scale PV facilities in Minnesota, USA. No significant cooling of PV panels or increased power production was observed in PV arrays with underlying vegetation. Fine soil particle fraction was the highest in soils within PV arrays with the vegetation which was attributable to the lowest wind speeds from the compounding suppression of wind by vegetation and PV arrays. Soil moisture and soil nutrient response to re-vegetation varied between PV facilities, which could be attributed to differing soil texture. No statistically significant vegetation-driven panel cooling was observed in this climate. This finding prompts a need for site-specific studies to identify contributing factors for environmental co-benefits in co-located systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity

Marine low clouds strongly cool the planet. How this cooling effect will respond to climate change is a leading source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the planetary warming resulting from CO 2 doubling. In this study, we observationally constrain this low cloud feedback at a near-global scale. Satellite observations are used to estimate the sensitivity of low clouds to interannual meteorological perturbations. Combined with model predictions of meteorological changes under greenhouse warming, this permits quantification of spatially resolved cloud feedbacks. We predict positive feedbacks from midlatitude low clouds and eastern ocean stratocumulus, nearly unchanged trade cumulus and a near-global marine low cloud feedback of 0.19 ± 0.12 W m -2 K -1 (90% confidence). These constraints imply a moderate climate sensitivity (~3 K). Despite improved midlatitude cloud feedback simulation by several current-generation climate models, their erroneously positive trade cumulus feedbacks produce unrealistically high climate sensitivities. Conversely, models simulating erroneously weak low cloud feedbacks produce unrealistically low climate sensitivities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Degradation and deforestation increase the sensitivity of the Amazon Forest to climate extremes

About 40% of the Brazilian Amazon has been deforested or suffered changes in forest structure through degradation (selective logging, fires, and fragmentation). The impact of forest degradation on the forest’s sensitivity to climate extremes has not been fully explored because of a lack of data and the complex interplay of forest structure and climate drivers. Here, we combined forest structure data from 545 airborne lidar transects (375 ha each) across the Brazilian Amazon with the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2). We explore the forest’s functional response to near-present (1981–2019) climate extremes under observed forest structure from lidar ( Control ) and two forest structure change scenarios: (1) forest recovery by excluding all future deforestation and degradation ( Recovery ) and (2) expansion of selective logging and deforestation ( Degradation ). Using the Control simulation, we found a close and positive association between local forest aboveground biomass and the predicted gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Moreover, both GPP and ET respond negatively to extremes in vapor pressure deficit and downwelling shortwave irradiance in degraded forests in Eastern and Southern Amazon, indicating high sensitivity to droughts. Locally high-biomass forest patches showed little or no negative response of GPP and ET to extreme drought conditions whereas low-biomass forest patches in the same locations—typically degraded forest canopies—responded negatively to higher moisture stress. The results from the Recovery scenario showed similar results to simulations with observed structure; however, under the Degradation scenario, low-biomass forest patches became more abundant, resulting in more regions where GPP and ET are negatively impacted by hot drought conditions according to the ED2 model. Our results suggest that local forest structure is a critical determinant of an ecosystem’s response to climate variability, and that the loss of canopy trees in the Amazon through forest degradation could increase and expand forest vulnerability to droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Arctic Observing Experiment (AOX) Field Campaign Report

Our ability to understand and predict weather and climate requires an accurate observing network. One of the pillars of this network is the observation of the fundamental meteorological parameters: temperature, air pressure, and wind. We plan to assess our ability to measure these parameters for the polar regions during the Arctic Observing Experiment (AOX, Figure 1) to support the International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP), the Arctic Observing Network (AON), the International Program for Antarctic Buoys (IPAB), and the Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS). Accurate temperature measurements are also necessary to validate and improve satellite measurements of surface temperature across the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigating controls on sea ice algal production using E3SMv1.1-BGC

We present the analysis of global sympagic primary production (PP) from 300 years of pre-industrial and historical simulations of the E3SMv1.1-BGC model. The model includes a novel, eight-element sea ice biogeochemical component, MPAS-Seaice zbgc, which is resolved in three spatial dimensions and uses a vertical transport scheme based on internal brine dynamics. Modeled ice algal chlorophyll-a concentrations and column-integrated values are broadly consistent with observations, though chl-a profile fractions indicate that upper ice communities of the Southern Ocean are underestimated. Simulations of polar integrated sea ice PP support the lower bound in published estimates for both polar regions with mean Arctic values of 7.5 and 15.5 TgC/a in the Southern Ocean. However, comparisons of the polar climate state with observations, using a maximal bound for ice algal growth rates, suggest that the Arctic lower bound is a significant underestimation driven by biases in ocean surface nitrate, and that correction of these biases supports as much as 60.7 TgC/a of net Arctic PP. Simulated Southern Ocean sympagic PP is predominantly light-limited, and regional patterns, particularly in the coastal high production band, are found to be negatively correlated with snow thickness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Trade-offs of forest management scenarios on forest carbon exchange and threatened and endangered species habitat

Management of forest lands under climate warming poses challenges to managers, some of which are difficult to predict. Examining the trade-offs associated with forest stewardship choices is essential to avoid consequences with loss of natural capital. We utilized LANDIS-II process model simulations for three forested sites located in disparate parts of the United States with the purpose of understanding the trade-offs imposed by management choices under climate warming and associated wildfire. There were only small trade-offs that emerged from the simulations, between habitat area for threatened and endangered species (TES), net ecosystem exchange for CO2 (NEE), and risk of wildfire. Stand management in the form of thinning and prescribed burning typically increased NEE while simultaneously increasing habitat for TES, while reducing the risk of wildfire. These benefits were also observed under a climate warming scenario; however, the benefits were greatly outweighed by the negative impacts f warming on both TES habitat and NEE. Balancing these ecosystem services via thinning and burning treatments is a strategic approach to mitigate risks of wildfire both currently and under a warming future climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Importance of viewing angle: Hotspot effect improves the ability of satellites to track terrestrial photosynthesis

The product of near-infrared reflectance of vegetation and photosynthetic active radiation (NIRvP) is a new tool for monitoring gross primary productivity (GPP) dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems, due to the discovered linear correlation between NIRvP and GPP. While remote sensing-based NIRvP is considerably influenced by sensor geometry, such geometry impacts on the NIRvP-GPP relationship remain underexplored. In this study, we calculate NIRvP using observations from the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) that provide unique hotspot observation geometry in which the sensor viewing angle coincides with the sun direction. We evaluated the linear correlation between NIRvP and GPP in both the common nadir direction and the special hotspot direction. The results indicate that NIRvP in the hotspot direction significantly outperforms that in the nadir direction for tracking GPP variations across different ecosystems from diurnal to daily scales. This conclusion is further supported by data from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and simulations using the Soil Canopy Observation Photosynthesis Energy (SCOPE) model. Finally, our research highlights the value of using the unconventional hotspot-based sun-tracking satellite observations for a more accurate characterization of GPP dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Role of Ocean and Atmosphere Variability in Scale-Dependent Thermodynamic Air-Sea Interactions

This study investigates the influence of oceanic and atmospheric processes in extratropical thermodynamic air-sea interactions resolved by satellite observations (OBS) and by two climate model simulations run with eddy-resolving high-resolution (HR) and eddy-parameterized low-resolution (LR) ocean components. Here, in this work, spectral methods are used to characterize the sea surface temperature (SST) and turbulent heat flux (THF) variability and co-variability over scales between 50 and 10,000 km and 60 days to 80 years in the Pacific Ocean. The relative roles of the ocean and atmosphere are interpreted using a stochastic upper-ocean temperature evolution model forced by noise terms representing intrinsic variability in each medium, defined using climate model data to produce realistic rather than white spectral power density distributions. The analysis of all datasets shows that the atmosphere dominates the SST and THF variability over zonal wavelengths larger than ~2,000–2,500 km. In HR and OBS, ocean processes dominate the variability of both quantities at scales smaller than the atmospheric first internal Rossby radius of deformation (R 1 , ~600–2,000 km) due to a substantial ocean forcing coinciding with a weaker atmospheric modulation of THF (and consequently of SST) than at larger scales. The ocean forcing also induces oscillations in SST and THF with periods ranging from intraseasonal to multidecadal, reflecting a red spectrum response to ocean forcing similar to that driven by atmospheric forcing. Such features are virtually absent in LR due to a weaker ocean forcing relative to HR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗