Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “collision risk”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Current and Future Impact Risks from Small Debris to Operational Satellites

The collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 signaled the potential onset of the collision cascade effect, commonly known as the "Kessler Syndrome", in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region. Recent numerical simulations have shown that the 10 cm and larger debris population in LEO will continue to increase even with a good implementation of the commonly-adopted mitigation measures. This increase is driven by collisions involving large and massive intacts, i.e., rocket bodies and spacecraft. Therefore, active debris removal (ADR) of large and massive intacts with high collision probabilities has been argued as a direct and effective means to remediate the environment in LEO. The major risk for operational satellites in the environment, however, comes from impacts with debris just above the threshold of the protection shields. In general, these are debris in the millimeter to centimeter size regime. Although impacts by these objects are insufficient to lead to catastrophic breakup of the entire vehicle, the damage is certainly severe enough to cause critical failure of the key instruments or the entire payload. The focus of this paper is to estimate the impact risks from 5 mm and 1 cm debris to active payloads in LEO (1) in the current environment and (2) in the future environment based on different projection scenarios, including ADR. The goal of the study is to quantify the benefits of ADR in reducing debris impact risks to operational satellites.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
NASA NTRS2011

Strategy for Mitigating Collision Between Landsat-5 and the Afternoon Constellation

The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Science Mission Operations project, the French space agency Centre National d tudes Spatiales, the Argentinian space agency Comisi n Nacional de Actividades Espaciales, and the United States Geological Survey all operate spacecraft in sun-synchronous frozen orbits. The orbits are planned to not place any of the spacecraft at risk of colliding with another. However, evolution of these orbits over time has com-promised the safe interaction between Landsat-5 and the Afternoon Constella-tion. This paper analyzes the interactions between the Landsat-5 spacecraft and the Afternoon Constellation members over a period of 6 years, describing the current risk and plan to mitigate collisions in the future.

Levi, Joshua A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Orbital Debris: Past, Present, and Future

In the early days of spaceflight, the gBig Sky h theory was the near universally accepted paradigm for dealing with collisions of orbiting objects. This theory was also used during the early years of the aviation industry. Just as it did in aviation, the gBig Sky h theory breaks down as more and more objects accumulate in the environment. Fortunately, by the late 1970 fs some visionaries in NASA and the US Department of Defense (DoD) realized that trends in the orbital environment would inevitably lead to increased risks to operational spacecraft from collisions with other orbiting objects. The NASA Orbital Debris Program was established at and has been conducted at Johnson Space Center since 1979. At the start of 1979, fewer than 5000 objects were being tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and very few attempts had been made to sample the environment for smaller sizes. Today, the number of tracked objects has quadrupled. Ground ]based and in situ measurements have statistically sampled the LEO environment over most sizes and mitigation guidelines and requirements are common among most space faring nations. NASA has been a leader, not only in defining the debris environment, but in promoting awareness of the issues in the US and internationally, and in providing leadership in developing policies to address the issue. This paper will discuss in broad terms the evolution of the NASA debris program from its beginnings to its present broad range of debris related research. The paper will discuss in some detail current research topics and will attempt to predict future research trends.

Stansbery, Gene↗
NASA NTRS2017

Algorithms for the Computation of Debris Risk

Determining the risks from space debris involve a number of statistical calculations. These calculations inevitably involve assumptions about geometry - including the physical geometry of orbits and the geometry of satellites. A number of tools have been developed in NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office to handle these calculations; many of which have never been published before. These include algorithms that are used in NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0, as well as other tools useful for computing orbital collision rates and ground casualty risks. This paper presents an introduction to these algorithms and the assumptions upon which they are based.

Matney, Mark J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Algorithms for the Computation of Debris Risks

Determining the risks from space debris involve a number of statistical calculations. These calculations inevitably involve assumptions about geometry - including the physical geometry of orbits and the geometry of non-spherical satellites. A number of tools have been developed in NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office to handle these calculations; many of which have never been published before. These include algorithms that are used in NASA's Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0, as well as other tools useful for computing orbital collision rates and ground casualty risks. This paper will present an introduction to these algorithms and the assumptions upon which they are based.

Matney, Mark↗
NASA NTRS1993

Heavy-ion fragmentation studies in thick water absorbers

Proposed long-term space missions could expose crewmembers to significant fluxes of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) particles and secondary particles created from nuclear collisions. An assessment of radiobiological risks is dependent upon an accurate description of the charged-particle radiation field inside the human body. As shield thickness increases and the incident ions are slowed, the production of secondary particles contributes an increasingly significant fraction of the total dose until eventually secondary particles become more important than the primary particles. The nuclear mean free path of the GCR ions (which usually have nuclear charge between 1 (protons) and 26 (iron), both inclusive) are comparable with thicknesses typical of spacecraft structures and the human body. Collisions in these media will create projectile and target fragments with charge less than that of the primary particle, and each interaction event can have a multiplicity of more than one emerging interaction product. Projectile fragments usually continue on with very nearly the velocity of the primary ion (the so-called straightahead approximation). Having sufficient energy, the fragments may collide with atomic nuclei in thick shields and create a second generation of fragments, and so on. Target fragments are emitted from a struck nucleus, usually with much lower energy than projectile fragments and nearly isotropically in the rest frame of the absorbing medium. The resulting spectrum of particles and their energy loss rates will be very different from that in the unshielded environment, will determine the radiobiological impact on exposed living tissues -- whether in space or in ground-based radiobiology experiments -- and will play an important role in radiation effects on microelectronics.

Shavers, M. R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) Ground Systems, Software and Operations Infrastructure Cloud Implementation

The growing number of large-scale constellations and the improvements made in the tracking and detection of resident space objects have contributed to the increase of satellite conjunction events. As a result of the increase of objects in Earth orbit, the timeline for risk analysis computations for satellite collision avoidance is more urgent when conjunctions occur. It is imperative NASA maintains a space environment safety functionality for the agency that allows CARA remote access to the ground system while maintaining redundancy. CARA’s On-premises (On-prem) ground system would no longer be able to meet these access and redundancy requirements, hence the investigation and eventual implementation of a Cloud-based ground station infrastructure as a viable solution. This paper will provide an overview of the principal parts of the Conjunction Assessment (CA) risk analysis process used at CARA, summarize the key drivers towards the Cloud solution, and share key lessons learned that are significant for any operational entity considering a cloud solution for real-time satellite operations to ensure a sustainable space traffic environment for all.

Sustainability↗
NASA NTRS2018

High Fidelity Collision Probabilities Estimated Using Brute Force Monte Carlo Simulations

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis team has implemented new software to estimate the probability of collision (P (sub c)) for Earth-orbiting satellites. The algorithm employs a brute force Monte Carlo (BFMC) method which differs from most other methods because it uses orbital states and covariances propagated from their orbit determination epoch times using the full set of Astrodynamics Support Workstation higher order theory models, including the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model. This paper de-scribes the BFMC algorithm, presents comparisons of BFMC P (sub c) estimates to those calculated using other methods, and discusses the implications for conjunction risk assessment.

Probabilities↗
NASA NTRS2016

Coordination Logic for Repulsive Resolution Maneuvers

This paper presents an algorithm for determining the direction an aircraft should maneuver in the event of a potential conflict with another aircraft. The algorithm is implicitly coordinated, meaning that with perfectly reliable computations and information, it will in- dependently provide directional information that is guaranteed to be coordinated without any additional information exchange or direct communication. The logic is inspired by the logic of TCAS II, the airborne system designed to reduce the risk of mid-air collisions between aircraft. TCAS II provides pilots with only vertical resolution advice, while the proposed algorithm, using a similar logic, provides implicitly coordinated vertical and horizontal directional advice.

Narkawicz, Anthony J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Informing the Space Launch System Booster Separation Initial CFD Run Matrix with Observed Parametric Sensitivity

It currently requires significant computational cost to simulate the flow physics of the booster separation event on the Space Launch System. This comes from the large parametric space in which the event occurs, as pre-separation flight conditions and separated booster core-relative trajectories can vary. Functionally removing the risk of core-booster collision mandates careful assessment of the fluid dynamics in terms of several trajectory parameters. However, simulating the entire trajectory envelope is computationally intractable given the high parametric dimension. In order to reduce the uncertainty in the resulting low-parametric-resolution aerodynamic booster separation database, a data-driven approach was developed to select which breakpoints should be studied by simulations and experiments and which should be relegated to a regression-based interpolation procedure. This technique works by simulating cases where the flow physics are most sensitive to changes in the parameters and leaving the less parametrically sensitive regions for interpolation. The result is a booster separation run matrix whose computational cost is comparable to that of previous database generations but has lower interpolation errors.

SLS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Informing the Space Launch System Booster Separation Initial CFD Run Matrix with Observed Parametric Sensitivity

It currently requires significant computational cost to simulate the flow physics of the booster separation event on the Space Launch System. This comes from the large parametric space in which the event occurs, as pre-separation flight conditions and separated booster core-relative trajectories can vary. Functionally removing the risk of core-booster collision mandates careful assessment of the fluid dynamics in terms of several trajectory parameters. However, simulating the entire trajectory envelope is computationally intractable given the high parametric dimension. In order to reduce the uncertainty in the resulting low-parametric-resolution aerodynamic booster separation database, a data-driven approach was developed to select which breakpoints should be studied by simulations and experiments and which should be relegated to a regression-based interpolation procedure. This technique works by simulating cases where the flow physics are most sensitive to changes in the parameters and leaving the less parametrically sensitive regions for interpolation. The result is a booster separation run matrix whose computational cost is comparable to that of previous database generations but has lower interpolation errors.

SLS↗
NASA NTRS2021

Orbital Debris Mitigation and CubeSats

The 2019 update to the U. S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices (ODMSP) included CubeSats as a special class of space operations for the first time. This is the first governmental-level policy document that calls for CubeSats to follow quantitative recommendations for orbital debris mitigation. While CubeSats were never exempt from such recommendations, mission designers often “under assess” CubeSats due to their small size and historically low level of stored energy. Qualitative assessments of debris potential are less applicable as miniaturized energy systems (propulsive and electrical) become more available and as the “CubeSat” label is applied to larger payloads. Of particular interest to the long-term evolution of the debris environment is the likelihood of accidental explosion or collision; we must also consider the risk to the human population from reentering spacecraft. We discuss the on-orbit history of CubeSats and present guidance to assist in designing for future compliance with the new standard practices.

Chris L. Ostrom↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Orbital Debris Mitigation and CubeSats

The 2019 Update to the United States Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices (ODMSP) included CubeSats for the first time as a special class of space operations. This is the first governmental-level policy document that calls for CubeSats to follow quantitative recommendations for orbital debris mitigation. While CubeSats were never exempt from such recommendations, mission designers often under assess CubeSats due to their small size and historically low level of stored energy. Qualitative assessments of debris potential are less applicable as miniaturized energy systems (propulsive and electrical) become more available and as the “CubeSat” label is applied to larger payloads. Of particular interest to the long-term evolution of the debris environment is the likelihood of accidental explosion or collision; we must also consider the risk to the human population from reentering spacecraft. We discuss the on-orbit history of CubeSats and present guidance to assist in designing for future compliance with the new standard practices.

Chris L Ostrom↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Guidance and Control for Laser-Based Non-Cooperative Target Detumbling

Large pieces of orbital debris form a significant risk of fragmentation in case of collision. Such fragmentation would greatly increase the number of trackable and untrackable debris on orbit. This makes them attractive targets for future rendezvous and disposal missions. However, these non-cooperative targets tend to be tumbling and rendezvous with them is a dangerous prospect. To avoid this danger, contactless detumbling through laser ablation has been proposed prior to rendezvous. Existing proposals for contactless laser-based detumbling have yet to include an in-depth study of the problem's guidance, navigation, and control requirements. In this work we develop an attitude and relative motion control scheme for a chaser satellite detumbling a non-cooperative target via laser. We show that detumbling can be achieved with reasonable time and dV budgets. With Monte Carlo methods we explore the impact of laser force on the detumbling operation and reveal some non-intuitive relationships.

Guidance↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Guidance and Control for Laser-Based Non-Cooperative Target Detumbling

Large pieces of orbital debris form a significant risk of fragmentation in case of collision. Such fragmentation would greatly increase the number of trackable and untrackable debris on orbit. This makes them attractive targets for future rendezvous and disposal missions. However, these non-cooperative targets tend to be tumbling and rendezvous with them is a dangerous prospect. To avoid this danger, contactless detumbling through laser ablation has been proposed prior to rendezvous. Existing proposals for contactless laser-based detumbling have yet to include an in-depth study of the problem's guidance, navigation, and control requirements. In this work we develop an attitude and relative motion control scheme for a chaser satellite detumbling a non-cooperative target via laser. We show that detumbling can be achieved with reasonable time and dV budgets. With Monte Carlo methods we explore the impact of laser force on the detumbling operation and reveal some non-intuitive relationships.

Guidance↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗
NASA NTRS2015

Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

Operations↗