Predicting Close Approaches and Estimating Impact Probabilities for Near Earth Objects
Recent popular movies have raised public consciousness of the very real possibility of a comet or asteroid collision with the Earth.
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Phobos: Low Velocity Impacts
Mars’s inner moon, Phobos, is located deep in the planet’s gravity well and orbits far below the planet’s synchronous orbit. Images of the surface of Phobos, in particular from Viking Orbiter 1, MGS, MRO, and MEX, reveal a rich collisional history, including fresh‐looking impact craters and subdued older ones, very large impact structures (compared to the size of Phobos), such as Stickney, and much smaller ones. Sources of impactors colliding with Phobos include a priori: A) Impactors from outside the martian system (asteroids, comets, and fragments thereof); B) Impactors from Mars itself (ejecta from large impacts on Mars); and C) Impactors from Mars orbit, including impact ejecta launched from Deimos and ejecta launched from, and reintercepted by, Phobos. In addition to individual craters on Phobos, the networks of grooves on this moon have also been attributed in part or in whole to impactors from some of these sources, particularly B. We report the preliminary results of a systematic survey of the distribution, morphology, albedo, and color characteristics of fresh impact craters and associated ejecta deposits on Phobos. Considering that the different potential impactor sources listed above are expected to display distinct dominant compositions and different characteristic impact velocity regimes, we identify specific craters on Phobos that are more likely the result of low velocity impacts by impactors derived from Mars orbit than from any alternative sources. Our finding supports the hypothesis that the spectrally “Redder Unit” on Phobos may be a superficial veneer of accreted ejecta from Deimos, and that Phobos’s bulk might be distinct in composition from Deimos.
Low velocity impact↗
Implications of Cometary Water: Deep Impact, Stardust and Hayabusa
Three recent in situ spacecraft missions have explored comets or asteroids, producing data in conflict with the standard comet paradigm, the Whipple Dirty Snowball Model (DSM). We have developed an alternative Wet Comet Model (WCM) which proposes that comets undergo an irreversible phase change to a wet comet when they enter within Mars orbit. The WCM may explain some of the observational discrepancies seen by Deep Impact, Stardust and Hayabusa. In particular, it accurately predicted Deep Impact observation of organics, biominerals, and meltwater temperatures. Predictions concerning Stardust s returned cometary dust particles have yet to be falsified, but if comets are largely composed of the silicates seen by Stardust, there may be a cometary explanation for Itokawa s low density rubble-pile observed by Hayabusa.
Sheldon, Robert B.↗
Results of Lunar Impact Observations During Geminid Meteor Shower Events
Meteoroids are natural particles with origins from comets, asteroids, and planets from within the solar system. On average, 33 metric tons (73,000 lb) of meteoroids hit Earth everyday with velocities ranging between 20 and 72 km/s. However, the vast majority of these meteoroids disintegrate in the atmosphere and never make it to the ground. The Moon also encounters the same meteoroid flux, but has no atmosphere to stop them from striking the surface. At such speeds even a small meteoroid has incredible energy. A meteoroid with a mass of only 5 kg can excavate a crater over 9 m across, hurling 75 metric tons (165,000 lb) of lunar soil and rock on ballistic trajectories above the lunar surface. Meteoroids with particle sizes as small as 100 micrometer (1 Microgram) can do considerable damage to spacecraft in Earth's orbit and beyond. Impacts can damage thermal protection systems, radiators, windows, and pressurized containers. Secondary effects might include partial penetration or pitting, local deformation, and surface degradation that can cause a failure upon reentry. The speed, mass, density, and flux of meteoroids are important factors for design considerations and mitigation during operations. Lunar operations (unmanned and manned) are also adversely affected by the meteoroid flux. Ejecta from meteoroid impacts is also part of the lunar environment and must be characterized. Understanding meteoroid fluxes and the associated risk of meteoroids impacting spacecraft traveling in and beyond Earth's orbit is the objective of the Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) located at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). One of the MEO's programs is meteoroid impact monitoring of the Moon. The large collecting area of the night side of the lunar disk provides statistically significant counts of meteoroids that can provide useful information about the flux of meteoroids in the hundreds of grams to kilograms size range. This information is not only important for characterizing the lunar environment associated with larger lunar impactors, but also provides statistical data for verification and improving meteoroid prediction models. Current meteoroid models indicate that the Moon is struck by a sporadic meteoroid with a mass greater than 1 kg over 260 times per year. This number is very uncertain since observations for objects in this mass range are few. Factors of several times, higher or lower, are easily possible. Meteor showers are also present to varying degrees at certain times of the year. The Earth experiences meteor showers when encountering the debris left behind by comets, which is also the case with 2 the Moon. During such times, the rate of shower meteoroids can greatly exceed that of the sporadic background rate for larger meteoroids. Looking for meteor shower impacts on the Moon at about the same time as they occur on Earth will yield important data that can be fed into meteor shower forecasting models, which can then be used to predict times of greater meteoroid hazard on the Moon. The Geminids are one such meteor shower of interest. The Geminids are a major meteor shower that occur in December with a peak intensity occurring usually during the 13th and 14th of the month and appearing to come from a radiant in the constellation Gemini. The Geminids are interesting in that the parent body of the debris stream is an asteroid, which along with the Quadrantids, are the only major meteor showers not originating from a comet. The Geminids parent body, 3200 Phaethon, is about 5 km in diameter and has an orbit that has a 22deg inclination which intersects the main asteroid belt and has a perihelion less than half of Mercury's perihelion distance. Thus, its orbit crosses those of Mars, Earth, Venus, and Mercury. The Geminid debris stream is by far the most massive as compared to the others. When the Earth passes through the stream in mid-December, a peak intensity of approx. equal 120 meteors per hour can be seen. Because of the Geminids' relatively large intensity and unique origin, it is important to monitor and gain information about the Geminids so as to improve their forecasts and understand their contribution to the meteoroid environment in Earth's orbit and at the Moon. It is the purpose of this Technical Memorandum (TM) to document two lunar observing periods coinciding with the Geminid meteor showers that occurred in 2006 and 2010.
Suggs, R. J.↗
Planetary Defense: Options for Deflection of Near Earth Objects
Several recent near-miss encounters with asteroids and comets have focused attention on the threat of a catastrophic impact with the Earth. This document reviews the historical impact record and current understanding of the number and location of Near Earth Objects (NEO’s) to address their impact probability. Various ongoing projects intended to survey and catalog the NEO population are also reviewed. Details are then given of an MSFC-led study, intended to develop and assess various candidate systems for protection of the Earth against NEO’s. An existing program, used to model the NEO threat, was extensively modified and is presented here. Details of various analytical tools, developed to evaluate the performance of proposed technologies for protection against the NEO threat, are also presented. Trajectory tools, developed to model the outbound path a vehicle would take to intercept or rendezvous with a target asteroid or comet, are described. Also, details are given of a tool that was created to model both the un-deflected inbound path of an NEO as well as the modified, post-deflection, path. The number of possible options available for protection against the NEO threat was too numerous for them to all be addressed within the study; instead, a representative selection were modeled and evaluated. The major output from this work was a novel process by which the relative effectiveness of different threat mitigation concepts can be evaluated during future, more detailed, studies. In addition, several new or modified mathematical models were developed to analyze various proposed protection systems. A summary of the major lessons learned during this study is presented, as are recommendations for future work. It is hoped that this study will serve to raise the level attention about this very real threat and also demonstrate that successful defense is both possible and practicable, provided appropriate steps are taken.
Planets↗
Extraterrestrial Helium (He@C60) Trapped in Fullerenes in the Sudbury Impact Structure
Fullerenes (C60 and C70) have recently been identified in a shock-produced breccia (Onaping Formation) associated with the 1.85-Ga Sudbury Impact Crater. The presence of parts-per-million levels of fullerenes in this impact structure raises interesting questions about the processes that led to the formation of fullerenes and the potential for delivery of intact organic material to the Earth by a large bolide (e.g., asteroid or comet). Two possible scenarios for the presence of fullerenes in the Sudbury impact deposits are that (1) fullerenes are synthesized within the impact plume from the C contained in the bolide; or (2) fullerenes are already present in the bolide and survived the impact event. The correlation of C and trapped noble gas atoms in meteorites is well established. Primitive meteorites contain several trapped noble gas components that have anomalous isotopic compositions, some of which may have a presolar origin. Several C-bearing phases, including SiC, graphite, and diamond, have been recognized as carriers of trapped noble gases. It has also been suggested that fullerenes (C60 and C70) might be a carrier of noble gas components in carbonaceous chondrites. Recently, fullerenes have been detected in separate samples in the Allende meteorite. Carbon-60 is large enough to enclose the noble gases He, Ne, Ar, Kr, and Xe, but it is too small to contain diatomic gases such as N2 or triatomic gases such as CO2. Recent experimental work has demonstrated that noble gases of a specific isotopic composition can be introduced into synthetic fullerenes at high temperatures and pressures; these encapsulated gases can then be released by the breaking of one or more C bonds during step-heating under vacuum. These thermal-release patterns for He encapsulated within the C60 molecule (He@C60) are similar to the patterns for acid residues of carbonaceous chondrites, suggesting that fullerenes could be an additional carrier of trapped noble gases in acid residues of meteorites. Analysis and Results: In order to characterize the noble gas compositions of the Sudbury fullerenes, we undertook a systematic study of acid-resistant residues throughout the C-rich layer (Black member) of the Onaping Formation. Samples were demineralized and extracted using standard techniques. The Onaping extracts were analyzed using several techniques, including UV-Vis adsorption, electro spray mass spectrometry, and laser desorption (linear and reflectron) time-of-flight (TOF) mass spectrometry (LDMS). The Sudbury fullerenes were then separated and purified using HPLC coupled with a photo diode array detector. The HPLC extracts containing the purified fullerenes were loaded into a metal tube furnace within a glove box under a N atmosphere in preparation for noble gas analyses. The 3-He and 4-He content of the fullerene extracts was measured using previously reported standard techniques . Discussion: Fullerenes (C60 and C70) in the Sudbury Impact Structure have been found to contain trapped He with a 3-He/4-He ratio greater than 5 x 10(exp -4). The 3-He/4-He ratio exceeds the accepted solar value by more than 30% and is more than 10x higher than the maximum reported mantle value. Terrestrial nuclear reactions or cosmic-my bombardment are not sufficient to generate such a high ratio. The 3-He/4-He ratios in the Sudbury fullerenes are similar to those determined for interplanetary dust particles. The greater-than-solar ratios of 3-He/4-He in the Sudbury fullerenes may indicate a presolar origin, although alternative mechanisms occurring in the ISM to explain these high ratios (e.g., spallation reactions, selective He implantation, etc.) cannot be entirely ruled out. We are currently attempting to isolate enough fullerene material to measure anomalous Ne (or Kr or Xe) contained within the C60 (e.g., the "pure" 22-Ne component) and thus determine whether the Sudbury fullerenes are indeed presolar in origin.
Becker, L.↗
An Impact Sensor System for the Characterization of the Micrometeoroid and Lunar Secondary Ejecta Environment
The Impact Sensor for Micrometeoroid and Lunar Secondary Ejecta (IMMUSE) project aims to apply and integrate previously demonstrated impact sensing subsystems to characterize the micrometeoroid and lunar secondary (MMSE) environment on the surface of the Moon. Once deployed, data returned from IMMUSE will benefit: (1) Fundamental Lunar Science: providing data to improve the understanding of lunar cratering processes and dynamics of the lunar regolith. (2) Lunar Exploration Applied Science: providing an accurate MMSE environment definition for reliable impact risk assessments, cost-effective shielding designs, and mitigation measures for long-term lunar exploration activities. (3) Planetary Science: providing micrometeoroid data to aid the understanding of asteroidal collisions and the evolution of comets. A well-established link between micrometeoroid impacts and lunar regolith is also key to understanding other regolith-covered bodies from remote-sensing data. The IMMUSE system includes two components: (1) a large area (greater than or equal to 1 m2) micrometeoroid detector based on acoustic impact and fiber optic displacement sensors and (2) a 100 cm2 lunar secondary ejecta detector consisting of dual-layer laser curtain and acoustic impact sensors. The combinations of different detection mechanisms will allow for a better characterization of the MMSE environment, including flux, particle size/mass, and impact velocity. IMMUSE is funded by the NASA LASER Program through 2012. The project fs goal is to reach a Technical Readiness Level of 4 in preparation for a more advanced development beyond 2012. Several prototype subsystems have been constructed and subjected to low impact and hypervelocity impact tests. The presentation will include a status review and preliminary test results.
Liou, J.-C.↗
Impact Test and Simulation of Energy Absorbing Concepts for Earth Entry Vehicles
Nonlinear dynamic finite element simulations have been performed to aid in the design of an energy absorbing concept for a highly reliable passive Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) that will directly impact the Earth without a parachute. EEV's are designed to return materials from asteroids, comets, or planets for laboratory analysis on Earth. The EEV concept uses an energy absorbing cellular structure designed to contain and limit the acceleration of space exploration samples during Earth impact. The spherical shaped cellular structure is composed of solid hexagonal and pentagonal foam-filled cells with hybrid graphite- epoxy/Kevlar cell walls. Space samples fit inside a smaller sphere at the center of the EEV's cellular structure. Comparisons of analytical predictions using MSC,Dytran with test results obtained from impact tests performed at NASA Langley Research Center were made for three impact velocities ranging from 32 to 40 m/s. Acceleration and deformation results compared well with the test results. These finite element models will be useful for parametric studies of off-nominal impact conditions.
Billings, Marcus D.↗
Bolide impacts, acid rain, and biospheric traumas at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary
Two plausible projectiles are considered: an ice-rich long-period comet and a much smaller rock-metal asteroid. In the framework of a proposal addressed by Lewis et al. (1982), it is shown that, while the impact projectiles themselves do not shock-heat the atmosphere very extensively, the supersonic plume of water vapor and rock produced on impact does shock the atmosphere up to global scales and the shock is of sufficient intensity to produce abundant nitric oxide. For example, an ice-rich long-period comet with a mass of 1.25 x 10 to the 16th kg and a velocity of 65 km/s striking the earth would produce about 7 x 10 to the 40th molecules NO through shock-heating of the atmosphere by the high-velocity ejecta plume fragments. Specific attention is given to the fraction of the atmosphere shock-heated, the global circulation of the nitrogen oxides, the effects of the ejecta plume water on acid rain (AR) predictions, the effects of AR on continental soils, the relationship between AR production rates and the total amount of acid needed to acidify the surface oceans, and the longevity of the oceanic acidity event and the exhaled CO2 event and their implications for the environment in the first millenia or so after the impact.
Prinn, Ronald G.↗
Interplanetary trajectory design for the Galileo mission
The Galileo mission has been reprogrammed to use a direct earth-Jupiter trajectory with a May 1986 launch date and with arrival at Jupiter occurring in mid-1988. Within the constraints of Shuttle/Centaur launch vehicle capability and total spacecraft mass and performance, optimal broken-plane trajectories are generated, and the region of positive propellant margin in the launch/arrival space is determined. Mission constraints are used to define a launch/arrival strategy. It is also shown that a close flyby of any one of several asteroids or a comet is possible on the interplanetary transfer with minimal impact on mission performance.
Damario, L. A.↗
Survey of Technologies Relevant to Defense From Near-Earth Objects
Several recent near-miss encounters with asteroids and comets have focused attention on the threat of a catastrophic impact with the Earth. This Technical Publication reviews the historical impact record and current understanding of the number and location of near-Earth objects (NEOs) to address their impact probability. Various ongoing projects intended to survey and catalog the NEO population are also reviewed. Details are given of a Marshall Space Flight Center-led study intended to develop and assess various candidate systems for protection of the Earth against NEOs. Details of analytical tools, trajectory tools, and a tool that was created to model both the undeflected inbound path of an NEO as well as the modified, postdeflection path are given. A representative selection of these possible options was modeled and evaluated. It is hoped that this study will raise the level of attention about this very real threat and also demonstrate that successful defense is both possible and practicable, provided appropriate steps are taken.
Adams, R. B.↗
Survey of Technologies Relevant to Defense From Near-Earth Objects
Several recent near-miss encounters with asteroids and comets have focused attention on the threat of a catastrophic impact with the Earth. This Technical Publication reviews the historical impact record and current understanding of the number and location of near-Earth objects (NEOs) to address their impact probability. Various ongoing projects intended to survey and catalog the NEO population are also reviewed. Details are given of a Marshall Space Right Center-led study intended to develop and assess various candidate systems for protection of the Earth against NEOs. Details of analytical tools, trajectory tools, and a tool that was created to model both the undeflected inbound path of an NEO as well as the modified, post-deflection path are given. A representative selection of these possible options was modeled and evaluated. It is hoped that this study will raise the level of attention about this very real threat and also demonstrate that successful defense is both possible and practicable, provided appropriate steps are taken.
Adams, R. B.↗
The Onset of the Cataclysm: In Situ Dating of the Nectaris Basin Impact Melt Sheet
The impact history of the Moon has significant implications beyond simply excavating the surface of our nearest neighbor. The age distribution of lunar impact breccias inspired the idea of a catastrophic influx of asteroids and comets about 4 billion years ago and motivated new models of planetary dynamics. An epoch of heavy bombardment after planets had atmospheres and continents would have influenced the course of biologic evolution. The story of a cataclysmic bombardment, written in the rocks of the Moon, has far-reaching consequences.
Cohen, B. A.↗
The Impact Threat and Public Perception
Recent popular movies have raised public consciousness of the very real possibility of a comet or asteroid collision with the Earth, and a news report last year implying that asteroid 1997 XF11 had a distinct chance of hitting the Earth in the year 2028 further caught the public's eye. The report of possible impact was withdrawn the very next day, and the public perceived either that astronomers had made mistaken calculations, or that the pre-discovery observations found that day had been responsible for the revised prediction. But in fact, the original report of the possibility of impact in 2028 was simply a premature assessment. The XF11 affair has demonstrated the need for clarity and precision in public communications dealing with the possibility of Earth impact, as well as the importance of peer review before results are released to the press. This year, another potentially hazardous asteroid, 1999 AN10, has made the news, and this time there is indeed a remote chance of collision. Although impact is not possible during the asteroid's primary close approach in 2027, the uncertainties allow for a remarkably close passage, and embedded within the encounter's uncertainty region are many narrow "keyholes" which could bring the asteroid back for a close approach in a later year. Three keyholes have been identified which could perturb the asteroid onto trajectories that collide with the Earth in the years 2044, 2046, or 2039. At the time of this writing, the estimated impact probability for 1999 AN10 is on the order of 1 in 500,000, larger than for any other known object, but still significantly less than the probability of an undiscovered asteroid of equivalent size striking the Earth before 2044. Additional astrometric measurements of 1999 AN10 will likely drive its impact probability down to near-zero, but this may not happen for years, testing the public's reaction to a lingering remote possibility of impact. A side effect of the increasing discovery rate for Near Earth objects will be a growing number of cases like 1999 ANIO.
Chodas, Paul W.↗
Cratering Rates in the Jovian System
We use several independent constraints on the number of ecliptic comets to estimate impact cratering rates on the Jupiter moons. The impact rate on Jupiter by 1.5-km diameter ecliptic comets is currently NY(d > 1.5km) = 0.005(+0.006)(-0.003) per annum. Asteroids and long period comets are currently unimportant. The size-number distribution of ecliptic comets smaller than 20 km is inferred from size-number distributions of impact craters on Europa, Ganymede, and Triton. For comets bigger than 50 km we use the size-number distribution of Kuiper Belt Objects. The overview of the impact rate at Jupiter in general and at Europa in particular are given. These impact rates imply cratering rates on Europa of 0.5 per Ma per 10(exp 6) sq km for impact craters bigger than 1 km, and of 0.015 per Ma per 10(exp 6) sq km for impact craters bigger than 20 km. The latter corresponds to an average recurrence time of 2.2 Ma for 20 km craters. The best current estimates for the number of 20 km craters on Europa appear to range between about twelve to thirty. This implies that the average age of Europa's surface is between 30 and 70 Ma. The average density of craters with diameter greater than 1 km on well-mapped swaths on Europa is 30 per 10(exp 6) sq km. The corresponding nominal surface age would be 60 Ma. These two estimates are not truly independent because we have used size-number distribution of the Europan craters to help generate the size-number distribution of comets. The uncertainty of the best estimate - call it 42 Ma for specificity - is at least a factor of 3.
Zahnle, K.↗
Penetrator Coring Apparatus for Cometary Surfaces
Touch and go impact coring is an attractive technique for sampling cometary nuclei and asteroidal surface on account of the uncertain strength properties and low surface gravities of these objects. Initial coring experiments in low temperature (approx. 153K polycrystalline ice) and porous rock demonstrate that simultaneous with impact coring, measurements of both the penetration strength and constraints on the frictional properties of surface materials can be obtained upon core penetration and core sample extraction. The method of sampling an asteroid, to be deployed, on the now launched MUSES-C mission, employs a small gun device that fires into the asteroid and the resulted impact ejecta is collected for return to Earth. This technique is well suited for initial sampling in a very low gravity environment and deployment depends little on asteroid surface mechanical properties. Since both asteroids and comets are believed to have altered surface properties a simple sampling apparatus that preserves stratigraphic information, such as impact coring is an attractive alternate to impact ejecta collection.
Braun, David F.↗
Galileo Preparing for Jupiter Arrival
The most critical events of the Galileo mission occur on Jupiter arrival day, December 7, 1995. In chronological order, these one-time events are: a 1000 km flyby of the innermost Galilean satellite Io, the 75-minute Atmospheric Entry Probe mission, and the Orbiter's Jupiter Orbit Insertion (JOI) maneuver. In addition, extensive, unique Orbiter science observations are planned because this is the only time Galileo will encounter Io, fly through the Io torus, and will be so close to Jupiter -- three times closer than at any of the perijove passes in the orbital mission. All of these events occur in what will be by far the most intense radiation environment Galileo will ever see. The focus of this paper is the extraordinary preparations being made to maximize the reliability of the most critical events in order to ensure a successful probe mission and Orbiter Insertion while also gathering unique arrival day Orbiter science. The paper also provides a mission status report including the return of the asteroid Ida data and the Galileo direct line-of-sight observations of Comet Shoemaker-Levy fragments impacting Jupiter in July 1994.
Galileo↗
Long-Period Comets and the Oort Cloud
The long-period comets pose a unique problem for the impact hazard problem. Because of their very long orbital] periods and generally large distances from the Sun, they cannot be surveyed and catalogued in the same manner as the near-Earth asteroids and short-period comets. They appear at random, uniformly distributed on the celestial sphere. Current technologies can detect long-period comets at distances of approx. 5 AU, giving somewhat less than a one year warning time for potential Earth impactors. The mean impact probability for a long-period comet crossing the Earth's orbit is 2.2 to 2.5 x 10(exp -9) per perihelion passage. The mean impact velocity is approximately 52 km sec-1 but the most probable impact energy is characterized by a velocity of 56 to 58 km/sec. The estimated current impact rate for cometary nuclei large enough to create 10 km diameter (or larger) craters on the Earth is between 5 x 10(exp -7) and 2.8 x 10(exp -6) per year, with a bed estimated value of 1.0 x 10(exp -6) per year. Nuclei large enough to initiate global climatic disturbances strike the Earth on average every 16 Myr. The impact frequency may be increased substantially for brief periods of time during cometary showers, initiated by major perturbations of the Oort cloud. Improved technologies are needed to detect approaching long-period comets at large heliocentric distances so as to increase the warning time for potential impactors.
Weissman, Paul R.↗