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A Green’s Function Sensor Fusion Approach for Evaluating Spacecraft Entry Heating From on-Board Thermal Instrumentation

During atmospheric entry, distributed thermal measurements are critical to enable the evaluation of heat loads on spacecraft thermal protection systems (TPS). In recent space exploration missions, Schmidt-Boelter-type heat flux gauges have been integrated into the TPS alongside conventional temperature measurement instrumentation to measure total (convective and radiative) and radiative heat transfer rates1,2. While direct heat flux sensors (HFS) are able to provide valuable information detailing the thermal loads experienced by spacecraft, the interpretation of these measurements in unsteady, convective environments requires a correction factor to account for local heating augmentations at the cold wall HFS surface2,3. Current efforts to estimate cold wall correction factors, and thus recover the hot wall TPS heat flux, rely on time-marching computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations2. Simulation-based methods are susceptible to large uncertainties, however, as they require estimations of vehicle trajectory, gas kinetics, wall catalysis models, and other flight conditions as input parameters2,4. Furthermore, CFD simulations are computationally expensive and cannot efficiently survey all possible entry scenarios, exacerbating the uncertainty of reconstructed hot wall heat flux values. These drawbacks motivate the development of alternative hot wall heat flux reconstruction methods that are not reliant on CFD-based correction factors.

Kenneth McAfee↗

A Green’s Function Sensor Fusion Approach for Evaluating Spacecraft Entry Heating From on-Board Thermal Instrumentation

During atmospheric entry, distributed thermal measurements are critical to enable the evaluation of heat loads on spacecraft thermal protection systems (TPS). In recent space exploration missions, Schmidt-Boelter-type heat flux gauges have been integrated into the TPS alongside conventional temperature measurement instrumentation to measure total (convective and radiative) and radiative heat transfer rates1,2. While direct heat flux sensors (HFS) are able to provide valuable information detailing the thermal loads experienced by spacecraft, the interpretation of these measurements in unsteady, convective environments requires a correction factor to account for local heating augmentations at the cold wall HFS surface2,3. Current efforts to estimate cold wall correction factors, and thus recover the hot wall TPS heat flux, rely on time-marching computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations2. Simulation-based methods are susceptible to large uncertainties, however, as they require estimations of vehicle trajectory, gas kinetics, wall catalysis models, and other flight conditions as input parameters2,4. Furthermore, CFD simulations are computationally expensive and cannot efficiently survey all possible entry scenarios, exacerbating the uncertainty of reconstructed hot wall heat flux values. These drawbacks motivate the development of alternative hot wall heat flux reconstruction methods that are not reliant on CFD-based correction factors.

Kenneth McAfee↗

A Green’s Function Sensor Fusion Approach for Evaluating Spacecraft Entry Heating From on-Board Thermal Instrumentation

During atmospheric entry, distributed thermal measurements are critical to enable the evaluation of heat loads on spacecraft thermal protection systems (TPS). In recent space exploration missions, Schmidt-Boelter-type heat flux gauges have been integrated into the TPS alongside conventional temperature measurement instrumentation to measure total (convective and radiative) and radiative heat transfer rates1,2. While direct heat flux sensors (HFS) are able to provide valuable information detailing the thermal loads experienced by spacecraft, the interpretation of these measurements in unsteady, convective environments requires a correction factor to account for local heating augmentations at the cold wall HFS surface2,3. Current efforts to estimate cold wall correction factors, and thus recover the hot wall TPS heat flux, rely on time-marching computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations2. Simulation-based methods are susceptible to large uncertainties, however, as they require estimations of vehicle trajectory, gas kinetics, wall catalysis models, and other flight conditions as input parameters2,4. Furthermore, CFD simulations are computationally expensive and cannot efficiently survey all possible entry scenarios, exacerbating the uncertainty of reconstructed hot wall heat flux values. These drawbacks motivate the development of alternative hot wall heat flux reconstruction methods that are not reliant on CFD-based correction factors.

Kenneth McAfee↗

Advances in Space Transportation Technology Toward the NASA Goals

NASA has set goals to increase safety by one hundred times while reducing cost tenfold over the next decade. This dramatic increase in safety will come by departing from a past emphasis on cost and performance to a new paradigm of safety and reliability, which, in turn, will drive down cost. To accomplish this, vehicle systems must be inherently reliable, functionally redundant wherever practical and designed to minimize or eliminate catastrophic failure modes. Over the next twenty-five years, NASA has set goals to increase safety ten thousand times while reducing cost one hundred fold. Safety will increase towards today's airline safety and the low price per flight has the potential to enable a 15-fold increase in the size of the current projected space launch market. This level of improvement is comparable to the developments in the 1970s in the computer microprocessor when microchips went from hundreds of thousands to tens of thousands of dollars - hailing the era of the personal computer. In order to achieve such ambitious cost goals, today's partial and fully expendable rockets must be replaced by fully reusable systems. A RLV can eliminate assembly and checkout of the large number of complex interfaces on today's Space Shuttle. Full reusability will eliminate the necessity to throw away expensive hardware and the need for on-going production. Systems in ten years will have to accommodate 50 to 100 missions per year and could be commercially certified for hundreds of flights. In twenty-five years, the number of flights per year could jump to over 1,000, which will require certification for thousands of flights. The large increase in flights per year will demand that current operations and maintenance procedures be revolutionized. Unlike the current shuttle, which requires several thousand personnel over five months to process, the next generation system must be turned around in one week with less than one hundred personnel. In contrast to the rigorous disassembly and inspections required for the Space Shuttle's subsystems, the next generation vehicle's on-board health monitoring systems will could tell the ground crews which systems need replacement before landing. In twenty-five years, vehicles will be re-flown within one with crews numbering less than one hundred. Fully automated ground processing systems must require only a handful of personnel to launch the vehicle. Due to the increased intelligence of on-board systems, only cursory walk-around inspections would be required between flights An assessment of the progress in breakthrough technologies toward these goals by the NASA Advanced Space Transportation Program is presented. These breakthrough technologies include combined rocket and air breathing propulsion, high strength lightweight structures, high temperature materials, vehicle health management, and flight operations.

Lyles, Garry M.↗

Extension of the Time-Spectral Approach to Overset Solvers for Arbitrary Motion

Forced periodic flows arise in a broad range of aerodynamic applications such as rotorcraft, turbomachinery, and flapping wing configurations. Standard practice involves solving the unsteady flow equations forward in time until the initial transient exits the domain and a statistically stationary flow is achieved. It is often required to simulate through several periods to remove the initial transient making unsteady design optimization prohibitively expensive for most realistic problems. An effort to reduce the computational cost of these calculations led to the development of the Harmonic Balance method [1, 2] which capitalizes on the periodic nature of the solution. The approach exploits the fact that forced temporally periodic flow, while varying in the time domain, is invariant in the frequency domain. Expanding the temporal variation at each spatial node into a Fourier series transforms the unsteady governing equations into a steady set of equations in integer harmonics that can be tackled with the acceleration techniques afforded to steady-state flow solvers. Other similar approaches, such as the Nonlinear Frequency Domain [3,4,5], Reduced Frequency [6] and Time-Spectral [7, 8, 9] methods, were developed shortly thereafter. Additionally, adjoint-based optimization techniques can be applied [10, 11] as well as frequency-adaptive methods [12, 13, 14] to provide even more flexibility to the method. The Fourier temporal basis functions imply spectral convergence as the number of harmonic modes, and correspondingly number of time samples, N, is increased. Some elect to solve the equations in the frequency domain directly, while others choose to transform the equations back into the time domain to simplify the process of adding this capability to existing solvers, but each harnesses the underlying steady solution in the frequency domain. These temporal projection methods will herein be collectively referred to as Time-Spectral methods. Time-Spectral methods have demonstrated marked success in reducing the computational costs associated with simulating periodic forced flows, but have yet to be fully applied to overset or Cartesian solvers for arbitrary motion with dynamic hole-cutting. Overset and Cartesian grid methodologies are versatile techniques capable of handling complex geometry configurations in practical engineering applications, and the combination of the Time-Spectral approach with this general capability potentially provides an enabling new design and analysis tool. In an arbitrary moving-body scenario for these approaches, a Lagrangian body moves through a fixed Eulerian mesh and mesh points in the Eulerian mesh interior to the solid body are removed (cut or blanked), leaving a hole in the Eulerian mesh. During the dynamic motion some gridpoints in the domain are blanked and do not have a complete set of time-samples preventing a direct implementation of the Time-Spectral method. Murman[6] demonstrated the Time-Spectral approach for a Cartesian solver with a rigid domain motion, wherein the hole cutting remains constant. Similarly, Custer et al. [15, 16] used the NASA overset OVERFLOW solver and limited the amount of relative motion to ensure static hole-cutting and interpolation. Recently, Mavriplis and Mundis[17] demonstrated a qualitative method for applying the Time-Spectral approach to an unstructured overset solver for arbitrary motion. The goal of the current work is to develop a robust and general method for handling arbitrary motion with the Time-Spectral approach within an overset or Cartesian mesh method, while still approaching the spectral convergence rate of the original Time-Spectral approach. The viscous OVERFLOW solver will be augmented with the new Time-Spectral algorithm and the capability of the method for benchmark problems in rotorcraft and turbomachinery will be demonstrated. This abstract begins with a brief synopsis of the Time-Spectral approach for overset grids and provides details of e current approach to allow for arbitrary motion. Model problem results in one and two dimensions are included to demonstrate the viability of the method and the convergence properties. Section IV briefly outlines the implementation into the OVERFLOW solver, and the abstract closes with a description of the benchmark test cases which will be included in the final paper.

Leffell, Joshua Isaac↗

Pareto-optimal multi-objective design of airplane control systems

A constrained minimization algorithm for the computer aided design of airplane control systems to meet many requirements over a set of flight conditions is generalized using the concept of Pareto-optimization. The new algorithm yields solutions on the boundary of the achievable domain in objective space in a single run, whereas the older method required a sequence of runs to approximate such a limiting solution. However, Pareto-optimality does not guarantee a satisfactory design, since such solutions may emphasize some objectives at the expense of others. The designer must still interact with the program to obtain a well-balanced set of objectives. Using the example of a fighter lateral stability augmentation system (SAS) design over five flight conditions, several effective techniques are developed for obtaining well-balanced Pareto-optimal solutions. For comparison, one of these techniques is also used in a recently developed algorithm of Kreisselmeier and Steinhauser, which replaces the hard constraints with soft constraints, using a special penalty function. It is shown that comparable results can be obtained.

Schy, A. A.↗

Ion Channels – From Structure to Electrophysiology and Back

A reliable way to establish whether our understanding of a channel is satisfactory is to reproduce its measured ionic conductance over a broad range of applied voltages in computer simulations. In molecular dynamics (MD), this can be done by way of applying an external electric field to the system and counting the number of ions that traverse the channel per unit time. Since this approach is computationally very expensive, we have developed a markedly more efficient alternative in which MD is combined with the electrodiffusion (ED) equation. In this approach, the assumptions of the ED equation can be rigorously tested, and the precision and consistency of the calculated conductance can be determined. We have demonstrated that the full current/voltage dependence and the underlying free energy profile for a simple channel can be reliably calculated from equilibrium or non-equilibrium MD simulations at a single voltage. Free energy profiles can be obtained from non-equilibrium simulations without a loss of accuracy even without the knowledge of diffusion coefficient. To carry out MD simulations, a structural model of a channel has to be assumed, which is an important constraint, considering that high-resolution structures are available for only very few simple channels. If the comparison of calculated ionic conductance with electrophysiological data is satisfactory, it greatly increases our confidence that the structure and the function are described sufficiently accurately. We examined the validity of the ED for several channels embedded in phospholipid membranes - four naturally occurring channels: trichotoxin, alamethicin, p7 from hepatitis C virus (HCV) and Vpu from the HIV-1 virus, a synthetic, hexameric channel, formed by a 21-residue peptide that contains only leucine and serine and a bacterial pentameric ligand-gated ion channel, GLIC. All these channels mediate transport of potassium and chloride ions. It was found that the ED equation is satisfactory for these systems. In some of them, experimental and calculated electrophysiological properties are in good agreement, whereas in others there are strong indications that the structural models are incorrect.

Pohorille, Andrew↗

Looking to the Future: A Call to Action for Advanced GNC Algorithm Verification and Validation

Future space systems will rely on autonomous Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) functions to efficiently manage safe and precise self-directed operations in uncertain complex environments. Fundamentally, the GNC system plays a key role in mission performance and safety because it computes the ideal trajectory (Guidance), determines the actual trajectory (Navigation), and executes the ideal trajectory (Control) of a vehicle’s position and attitude. Our current GNC systems are highly automated and already have a high degree of complexity. As missions become more ambitious, GNC systems for launch vehicles and space platforms (e.g., spacecraft, probes, and landers) will require higher levels of performance and autonomous operation than previously encountered, for example, this includes GNC for optimizing aerodynamic and/or propulsion performance during planetary entry. This GNC Verification and Validation (V&V) paper highlights concerns with what undoubtedly will be a trend towards increased complexity as fully autonomous GNC systems are developed for future space missions. Clearly, complex GNC systems pose challenges in the prelaunch V&V phase, which is a relatively expensive part of a mission’s life cycle. Essentially the V&V phase is focused on checking that the system effectively meets all the design and operational requirements for the mission. The authors of this paper (i.e., the Inter-Agency Working Group of GNC subject matter experts) focused on this fundamental question over the past few years: Will the GNC engineering community of practice be sufficiently prepared to perform the necessary V&V on evolving GNC architectures that are driven by very demanding requirements for autonomy, resiliency, reconfigurability, adaptability, and mission cost-benefit balance? It is the viewpoint of our Inter-Agency team that the GNC V&V approaches and processes needed to address the next generation of complex GNC systems, which likely will employ various forms of modern GNC technology, are not currently established to the level the community will need in the future. While researchers and practitioners have made some progress in developing new GNC V&V methods for modern GNC systems, a good deal of work remains to be done to codify such methods in a comprehensive and systematic manner. Thus, the Inter-Agency team’s partner organizations [the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the European Space Agency (ESA), the National Centre for Space Studies (CNES), the German Aerospace Center (DLR), the French Aerospace Lab (ONERA), and ISAE-SUPAERO] have conducted preliminary investigations into advancing GNC V&V techniques, which resulted in the identification of the need for education, new V&V tools, and benchmark problems for the GNC community. The necessary proactive steps to be taken to meet the challenges and fill the gaps in GNC V&V are summarized in this paper. The first steps include identifying advanced analysis tools, developing a GNC V&V roadmap, and expanding education and training programs for GNC practitioners. This paper is a call to action and proposes a comprehensive set of recommended actions for all our stakeholders: space agencies, researchers, and industry.

Samir Bennani↗

Benchmarking Bayesian Optimization Frameworks and Acquisition Strategies for Materials Discovery and Autonomous Laboratories

Bayesian optimization (BO) can accelerate materials discovery by guiding expensive experiments toward the most promising processing conditions. We systematically compare five BO surrogate and framework combinations (Gaussian processes in Ax, Gaussian processes and Monte-Carlo neural networks in BayBE, random forests in Lolopy, and tree-structured Parzen (TPE) estimators in Hyperopt) on three benchmarks that mimic common materials design tasks (a discrete solid-electrolyte composition space, a hybrid discrete/continuous laminate-composite design problem solved with micromechanics modeling, and the continuous Ishigami analytic function which is a standard optimization benchmark). Each BO surrogate is paired with posterior mean, probability of improvement, and expected improvement acquisition functions and run for 100 trials from randomized initial samples with uniform random search providing a control. Across five random seeds per setting, BayBE’s Gaussian-process surrogate with expected improvement consistently reached ≥95 % of the known optimum in the fewest evaluations, while Lolopy’s random forest matched or exceeded GP performance on purely categorical or mixed spaces at a higher computational cost. Posterior mean alone often stagnated at local optima, underscoring the need for exploration, whereas probability and expected improvement balanced exploration and exploitation leading to better optimization in fewer trials. Execution times ranged from milliseconds for TPE to minutes for neural-network and random-forest surrogates. These results establish baseline expectations for BO in automated materials laboratories and highlight expected improvement with Gaussian processes as a reliable first choice, with random forests offering a strong alternative when categorical variables dominate. The benchmark suite and code are released to facilitate future surrogate, acquisition, and constraint-handling research in data-driven materials optimization.

Bayesian optimization↗

Safety Verification of the Small Aircraft Transportation System Concept of Operations

A critical factor in the adoption of any new aeronautical technology or concept of operation is safety. Traditionally, safety is accomplished through a rigorous process that involves human factors, low and high fidelity simulations, and flight experiments. As this process is usually performed on final products or functional prototypes, concept modifications resulting from this process are very expensive to implement. This paper describe an approach to system safety that can take place at early stages of a concept design. It is based on a set of mathematical techniques and tools known as formal methods. In contrast to testing and simulation, formal methods provide the capability of exhaustive state exploration analysis. We present the safety analysis and verification performed for the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS) Concept of Operations (ConOps). The concept of operations is modeled using discrete and hybrid mathematical models. These models are then analyzed using formal methods. The objective of the analysis is to show, in a mathematical framework, that the concept of operation complies with a set of safety requirements. It is also shown that the ConOps has some desirable characteristic such as liveness and absence of dead-lock. The analysis and verification is performed in the Prototype Verification System (PVS), which is a computer based specification language and a theorem proving assistant.

Carreno, Victor↗

Sensitivity analysis and approximation methods for general eigenvalue problems

Optimization of dynamic systems involving complex non-hermitian matrices is often computationally expensive. Major contributors to the computational expense are the sensitivity analysis and reanalysis of a modified design. The present work seeks to alleviate this computational burden by identifying efficient sensitivity analysis and approximate reanalysis methods. For the algebraic eigenvalue problem involving non-hermitian matrices, algorithms for sensitivity analysis and approximate reanalysis are classified, compared and evaluated for efficiency and accuracy. Proper eigenvector normalization is discussed. An improved method for calculating derivatives of eigenvectors is proposed based on a more rational normalization condition and taking advantage of matrix sparsity. Important numerical aspects of this method are also discussed. To alleviate the problem of reanalysis, various approximation methods for eigenvalues are proposed and evaluated. Linear and quadratic approximations are based directly on the Taylor series. Several approximation methods are developed based on the generalized Rayleigh quotient for the eigenvalue problem. Approximation methods based on trace theorem give high accuracy without needing any derivatives. Operation counts for the computation of the approximations are given. General recommendations are made for the selection of appropriate approximation technique as a function of the matrix size, number of design variables, number of eigenvalues of interest and the number of design points at which approximation is sought.

Murthy, D. V.↗

An Array of Optical Receivers for Deep-Space Communications

An array of small optical receivers is proposed as an alternative to a single large optical receiver for high-data-rate communications in NASA s Deep Space Network (DSN). Because the telescope for a single receiver capable of satisfying DSN requirements must be greater than 10 m in diameter, the design, building, and testing of the telescope would be very difficult and expensive. The proposed array would utilize commercially available telescopes of 1-m or smaller diameter and, therefore, could be developed and verified with considerably less difficulty and expense. The essential difference between a single-aperture optical-communications receiver and an optical-array receiver is that a single-aperture receiver focuses all of the light energy it collects onto the surface of an optical detector, whereas an array receiver focuses portions of the total collected energy onto separate detectors, optically detects each fractional energy component, then combines the electrical signal from the array of detector outputs to form the observable, or "decision statistic," used to decode the transmitted data. A conceptual block diagram identifying the key components of the optical-array receiver suitable for deep-space telemetry reception is shown in the figure. The most conspicuous feature of the receiver is the large number of small- to medium-size telescopes, with individual apertures and number of telescopes selected to make up the desired total collecting area. This array of telescopes is envisioned to be fully computer- controlled via the user interface and prediction-driven to achieve rough pointing and tracking of the desired spacecraft. Fine-pointing and tracking functions then take over to keep each telescope pointed toward the source, despite imperfect pointing predictions, telescope-drive errors, and vibration caused by wind.

Vilnrotter, Chi-Wung↗

On Shaft Data Acquisition System (OSDAS)

On Shaft Data Acquisition System (OSDAS) is a rugged, compact, multiple-channel data acquisition computer system that is designed to record data from instrumentation while operating under extreme rotational centrifugal or gravitational acceleration forces. This system, which was developed for the Heritage Fuel Air Turbine Test (HFATT) program, addresses the problem of recording multiple channels of high-sample-rate data on most any rotating test article by mounting the entire acquisition computer onboard with the turbine test article. With the limited availability of slip ring wires for power and communication, OSDAS utilizes its own resources to provide independent power and amplification for each instrument. Since OSDAS utilizes standard PC technology as well as shared code interfaces with the next-generation, real-time health monitoring system (SPARTAA Scalable Parallel Architecture for Real Time Analysis and Acquisition), this system could be expanded beyond its current capabilities, such as providing advanced health monitoring capabilities for the test article. High-conductor-count slip rings are expensive to purchase and maintain, yet only provide a limited number of conductors for routing instrumentation off the article and to a stationary data acquisition system. In addition to being limited to a small number of instruments, slip rings are prone to wear quickly, and introduce noise and other undesirable characteristics to the signal data. This led to the development of a system capable of recording high-density instrumentation, at high sample rates, on the test article itself, all while under extreme rotational stress. OSDAS is a fully functional PC-based system with 48 channels of 24-bit, high-sample-rate input channels, phase synchronized, with an onboard storage capacity of over 1/2-terabyte of solid-state storage. This recording system takes a novel approach to the problem of recording multiple channels of instrumentation, integrated with the test article itself, packaged in a compact/rugged form factor, consuming limited power, all while rotating at high turbine speeds.

Pedings, Marc↗

An Offload NIC for NASA, NLR, and Grid Computing

This work addresses distributed data management and access dynamically configurable high-speed access to data distributed and shared over wide-area high-speed network environments. An offload engine NIC (network interface card) is proposed that scales at nX10-Gbps increments through 100-Gbps full duplex. The Globus de facto standard was used in projects requiring secure, robust, high-speed bulk data transport. Novel extension mechanisms were derived that will combine these technologies for use by GridFTP, bandwidth management resources, and host CPU (central processing unit) acceleration. The result will be wire-rate encrypted Globus grid data transactions through offload for splintering, encryption, and compression. As the need for greater network bandwidth increases, there is an inherent need for faster CPUs. The best way to accelerate CPUs is through a network acceleration engine. Grid computing data transfers for the Globus tool set did not have wire-rate encryption or compression. Existing technology cannot keep pace with the greater bandwidths of backplane and network connections. Present offload engines with ports to Ethernet are 32 to 40 Gbps f-d at best. The best of ultra-high-speed offload engines use expensive ASICs (application specific integrated circuits) or NPUs (network processing units). The present state of the art also includes bonding and the use of multiple NICs that are also in the planning stages for future portability to ASICs and software to accommodate data rates at 100 Gbps. The remaining industry solutions are for carrier-grade equipment manufacturers, with costly line cards having multiples of 10-Gbps ports, or 100-Gbps ports such as CFP modules that interface to costly ASICs and related circuitry. All of the existing solutions vary in configuration based on requirements of the host, motherboard, or carriergrade equipment. The purpose of the innovation is to eliminate data bottlenecks within cluster, grid, and cloud computing systems, and to add several more capabilities while reducing space consumption and cost. Provisions were designed for interoperability with systems used in the NASA HEC (High-End Computing) program. The new acceleration engine consists of state-ofthe- art FPGA (field-programmable gate array) core IP, C, and Verilog code; novel communication protocol; and extensions to the Globus structure. The engine provides the functions of network acceleration, encryption, compression, packet-ordering, and security added to Globus grid or for cloud data transfer. This system is scalable in nX10-Gbps increments through 100-Gbps f-d. It can be interfaced to industry-standard system-side or network-side devices or core IP in increments of 10 GigE, scaling to provide IEEE 40/100 GigE compliance.

Awrach, James↗

Development of a Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis Method for the Analysis of Nondeterministic Structures

Accounting for the statistical geometric and material variability of structures in analysis has been a topic of considerable research for the last 30 years. The determination of quantifiable measures of statistical probability of a desired response variable, such as natural frequency, maximum displacement, or stress, to replace experience-based "safety factors" has been a primary goal of these studies. There are, however, several problems associated with their satisfactory application to realistic structures, such as bladed disks in turbomachinery. These include the accurate definition of the input random variables (rv's), the large size of the finite element models frequently used to simulate these structures, which makes even a single deterministic analysis expensive, and accurate generation of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) necessary to obtain the probability of the desired response variables. The research presented here applies a methodology called probabilistic dynamic synthesis (PDS) to solve these problems. The PDS method uses dynamic characteristics of substructures measured from modal test as the input rv's, rather than "primitive" rv's such as material or geometric uncertainties. These dynamic characteristics, which are the free-free eigenvalues, eigenvectors, and residual flexibility (RF), are readily measured and for many substructures, a reasonable sample set of these measurements can be obtained. The statistics for these rv's accurately account for the entire random character of the substructure. Using the RF method of component mode synthesis, these dynamic characteristics are used to generate reduced-size sample models of the substructures, which are then coupled to form system models. These sample models are used to obtain the CDF of the response variable by either applying Monte Carlo simulation or by generating data points for use in the response surface reliability method, which can perform the probabilistic analysis with an order of magnitude less computational effort. Both free- and forced-response analyses have been performed, and the results indicate that, while there is considerable room for improvement, the method produces usable and more representative solutions for the design of realistic structures with a substantial savings in computer time.

Brown, A. M.↗

Semidiscrete Galerkin modelling of compressible viscous flow past a circular cone at incidence

A numerical study of the laminar and compressible boundary layer, about a circular cone in a supersonic free stream, is presented. It is thought that if accurate and efficient numerical schemes can be produced to solve the boundary layer equations, they can be joined to numerical codes that solve the inviscid outer flow. The combination of these numerical codes is competitive with the accurate, but computationally expensive, Navier-Stokes schemes. The primary goal is to develop a finite element method for the calculation of 3-D compressible laminar boundary layer about a yawed cone. The proposed method can, in principle, be extended to apply to the 3-D boundary layer of pointed bodies of arbitrary cross section. The 3-D boundary layer equations governing supersonic free stream flow about a cone are examined. The 3-D partial differential equations are reduced to 2-D integral equations by applying the Howarth, Mangler, Crocco transformations, a linear relation between viscosity, and a Blasius-type of similarity variable. This is equivalent to a Dorodnitsyn-type formulation. The reduced equations are independent of density and curvature effects, and resemble the weak form of the 2-D incompressible boundary layer equations in Cartesian coordinates. In addition the coordinate normal to the wall has been stretched, which reduces the gradients across the layer and provides high resolution near the surface. Utilizing the parabolic nature of the boundary layer equations, a finite element method is applied to the Dorodnitsyn formulation. The formulation is presented in a Petrov-Galerkin finite element form and discretized across the layer using linear interpolation functions. The finite element discretization yields a system of ordinary differential equations in the circumferential direction. The circumferential derivatives are solved by an implicit and noniterative finite difference marching scheme. Solutions are presented for a 15 deg half angle cone at angles of attack of 5 and 10 deg. The numerical solutions assume a laminar boundary layer with free stream Mach number of 7. Results include circumferential distribution of skin friction and surface heat transfer, and cross flow velocity distributions across the layer.

Meade, Andrew James, Jr.↗

Fault-Tolerant, Radiation-Hard DSP

Commercial digital signal processors (DSPs) for use in high-speed satellite computers are challenged by the damaging effects of space radiation, mainly single event upsets (SEUs) and single event functional interrupts (SEFIs). Innovations have been developed for mitigating the effects of SEUs and SEFIs, enabling the use of very-highspeed commercial DSPs with improved SEU tolerances. Time-triple modular redundancy (TTMR) is a method of applying traditional triple modular redundancy on a single processor, exploiting the VLIW (very long instruction word) class of parallel processors. TTMR improves SEU rates substantially. SEFIs are solved by a SEFI-hardened core circuit, external to the microprocessor. It monitors the health of the processor, and if a SEFI occurs, forces the processor to return to performance through a series of escalating events. TTMR and hardened-core solutions were developed for both DSPs and reconfigurable field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). This includes advancement of TTMR algorithms for DSPs and reconfigurable FPGAs, plus a rad-hard, hardened-core integrated circuit that services both the DSP and FPGA. Additionally, a combined DSP and FPGA board architecture was fully developed into a rad-hard engineering product. This technology enables use of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) DSPs in computers for satellite and other space applications, allowing rapid deployment at a much lower cost. Traditional rad-hard space computers are very expensive and typically have long lead times. These computers are either based on traditional rad-hard processors, which have extremely low computational performance, or triple modular redundant (TMR) FPGA arrays, which suffer from power and complexity issues. Even more frustrating is that the TMR arrays of FPGAs require a fixed, external rad-hard voting element, thereby causing them to lose much of their reconfiguration capability and in some cases significant speed reduction. The benefits of COTS high-performance signal processing include significant increase in onboard science data processing, enabling orders of magnitude reduction in required communication bandwidth for science data return, orders of magnitude improvement in onboard mission planning and critical decision making, and the ability to rapidly respond to changing mission environments, thus enabling opportunistic science and orders of magnitude reduction in the cost of mission operations through reduction of required staff. Additional benefits of COTS-based, high-performance signal processing include the ability to leverage considerable commercial and academic investments in advanced computing tools, techniques, and infra structure, and the familiarity of the science and IT community with these computing environments.

Czajkowski, David↗

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Space Policy Directive-1 has led to NASA partnerships with commercial entities on procurement which includes the development of the Human Landing System (HLS) [1]. With the goal of delivering human crew to the lunar surface by 2024, system uncertainties become an important obstacle to the maturation of multiple new, driving technologies and mission concepts of the HLS program. As unmitigated uncertainties have previously led to failed development programs, these risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success [2]. Sources of uncertainty include novel engine designs and configurations, increased reliance on cryogenic fluid management(CFM), and refueling technologies—which propagate as high-level performance metrics such as overall propellant mass and engine performance. Also, the occurrence of operational uncertainties—e.g. launch conditions or need to abort during the mission—can cause cascading effects on the rest of the mission that are difficult to definitively quantify, and are outside the scope of control. These concrete examples and other occurrences can be categorized as either epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Epistemic uncertainty arises due to a lack of knowledge and can be alleviated with design and program maturation. Aleatory uncertainty is due to the inherent randomness of the system and cannot be directly reduced, unlike epistemic uncertainty. Robust design and probabilistic methods can compensate for aleatory effects. A taxonomy of uncertainty is referred to for this work [3]. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties has been demonstrated on a three-element HLS concept [1, 4], which allows tracking of current best estimates of the concept and assessment of concept design robustness against uncertainties. A sample case has been completed for this abstract, and an expansion on the methodology will be included in the final paper. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. This abstract will cover the basics of the approach used, and further details and justifications will be in the final paper.The mission profile associated with this three-element concept (Fig 1) was modeled as a set of mission events that facilitated mass changes, idles, or spacecraft maneuvers. The mission profile scope starts with each element’s NRHO orbit insertion and aggregation and ends at post-sortie rendezvous with Orion. More detail on the mission profile will be in the final paper. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as the physics framework to model the HLS architecture for applying the probabilistic methodology [5, 6]. Specifically, a parametric representation of the lander, ascent, and transfer elements and the mission profile of each element was established, with vehicle and mission parameters available as inputs to allow for a dynamic model. Each vehicle stage was modeled with high-level performance metrics, using Isp and propellant mass fraction (PMF) to remain parametric. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. These parameters were frozen at their nominal values for the purposes of baselining architecture performance and sizing the vehicle appropriately based on reference documentation [1]. Range estimating—a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities—is traditionally used with Mass Equipment Lists (MELs), but has been adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in theDYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty [7, 3]. This method was selected due to its application and insight on a system from a bottom-up perspective, independence from historical rules of thumb, and ability to generate sensitivities based on design decisions and uncertainties. As a sample case for the abstract, the boiloff rates of the vehicle elements and the loiter times during the mission (simulating launch time variations and changing window of opportunities) were used with range estimating to provide preliminary results. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology (depicted in Fig. 3, further details in final paper), the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the sample set of uncertainty parameters; 5,000 cases via Latin Hypercube Sampling were computed on the DYREQT architecture model. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Range estimating was applied to the surrogates instead of the actual models, which saves computational expense due to the bulk of cases needed for the Monte Carlo simulation as part of range estimating. Uncertainty parameters were sampled independently from triangular distributions using the DoE ranges as ‘min’ and ‘max’, and the nominal value as ‘most likely’. Based engineering intuition, some uncertainty parameters are correlated—e.g. if the main propellant has a high boil-off rate, the oxidizer should follow suit as both are related to CFM technology.While a Monte Carlo simulation samples all inputs as independent, the results would show model correlations; thus, it is efficient to sample the inputs as correlated. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo. A table for the DoE ranges and probability distribution parameters is shown in Table 1, and more details on Correlated Monte Carlo Simulations will be discussed in the final paper. The model’s resulting DoE showed that multivariate polynomial equations fit via least squares method captured its behavior accurately for the sample case. For the Correlated Monte Carlo Simulation, a positive correlation between fuel and oxidizer boiloff rates was used as a demonstration. 10,000 cases were computed with the surrogates and the launched masses for each vehicle element was collated. The results can be displayed in a probability density function (PDF), showing the impact of the uncertainty parameters chosen. Integrating the PDFs will yield a cumulative distribution function (CDF) that shows the cumulative probability of a given value on the x-axis. For the sample case, the elements’ launch mass margin was calculated and represented in as CDFs, as a demonstrated representation of figures of merit for the HLS concept. For the lander and ascent elements, the NRHO mass insertion limit is 16t; the transfer element has a limit of 30t [1]. It can be seen with Figure 2 that this probabilistic methodology can provide insight into mass margin with respect to the uncertainties being modeled. Currently, the results show that the lander (descent) vehicle element has the most restrictive design space; it is the only element to show a 10% probability of negative margin. Further analysis on the Monte Carlo results will show sensitivities for driving constraints and parameters for architecture feasibility, which can lead to establishing potential mission rules.The combination of range estimating with a parametric architecture model for HLS demonstrated the capability of this probabilistic methodology in a sample case. As the HLS development progresses, this methodology has the potential for keeping current best estimates of architecture performance for awarded concepts due to the flexibility in DYREQT’s modeling framework and its parametric nature. Concept maturation and increased epistemic knowledge can be injected into the model probabilistic modeling, and thus continue to track probability of mission success.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗