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At least 145 records · Page 8

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exercising Prediction Validation Methods for Analysis of Quiet Supersonic Overflight

En route noise certification procedures for quiet supersonic aircraft are in development under the International Civil Aviation Organization for a proposed standard that could enable civil supersonic overland flight. While these quiet supersonic aircraft do not exist yet, methods are being developed and evaluated using existing N-wave empirical datasets and low-boom simulation datasets. One potential aspect of future certification methods is the ability to use a validated prediction model to predict the certification noise level under reference day weather conditions. Methods to validate predictions, such as the two-sample t-test, Fisher’s combined probability test, two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and equivalence testing, have been exercised and modified for this application. While some methods compare mean values, others compare values across the distribution, and a combination of methods can be used. The methods were applied to a subset of an N-wave dataset to demonstrate the applicability and identify potential areas for improvement. Atmospheric turbulence variability was included as a factor in these analyses through KZKFourier propagation simulations with parameters matching actual flights and weather conditions. Results are presented for six noise metrics (PL, ASEL, BSEL, DSEL, ESEL, and ISBAP), and plans to expand the analyses are discussed.

sonic boom↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transfer learning for probabilistic localization of hidden cracks in concrete structures

Abstract The utility of discriminative supervised learning models built using multiple training-data sources is investigated for hidden crack localization in concrete. Feed-forward neural network (FFNN) is chosen as the model architecture, and transfer learning is used to assimilate the information obtained from different sources (computational physics simulations and laboratory experiments). The labeled training data consists of values of a damage index and the known locations of hidden cracks. The classification models need to learn how the presence of damage (hidden cracks) affects the damage index at different sensors for different test conditions. To this end, diagnostic FFNN models are built by sequentially adding and training new hidden layers to assimilate labeled information from computer models (different model geometries, test conditions, crack lengths, crack locations) and laboratory experiments on a plain cement slab. These transfer learning-based models are then used to localize damage in concrete specimens that reflect real-world conditions (i.e., specimens with steel reinforcement and randomly distributed aggregate). The actual damage state in these specimens is determined by extracting cores and performing petrographic studies on the extracted cores. The damage probability estimated by transfer learning-based models is compared with the petrographic damage rating index (DRI) to identify the most suitable approach to train the diagnostic models. The transfer learning-based diagnostic methodology shows promise and could be used in various structural health monitoring applications, where sufficient labeled data are typically not available from a single data source.

Miele, S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Estimation in a discrete tail rate family of recapture sampling models

In the context of recapture sampling design for debugging experiments the problem of estimating the error or hitting rate of the faults remaining in a system is considered. Moment estimators are derived for a family of models in which the rate parameters are assumed proportional to the tail probabilities of a discrete distribution on the positive integers. The estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal and fully efficient. Their fixed sample properties are compared, through simulation, with those of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators.

Gupta, Rajan↗

NASA NTRS1990

Particle image fields and partial coherence

The accuracy of Young's fringe method for reducing velocity field data is compromized by a spatially incoherent background field which originates in the random locations of the seeding particles. The probability density function for the spatial frequency cutoff of this background is derived as a function of the particle count, the distribution governing the power in each frequency interval is derived, and conditions are found under which the Van Cittert-Zernike theorem applies. The background field resembles the far field of a partially coherent source in the high particle count limit, but departs significantly at low and moderate counts.

Rubinstein, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1982

Rotational modulation of the chromospheric activity in the young solar-type star, X-1 Orionis

The IUE satellite was used to observe one of the youngest G stars (GO V) for which Duncan (1981) derives an age of 6 x 10 to the 8th power years from the Li abundance. Rotational modulation was looked for in the emission flux in the chromospheric and transition region lines of this star. Variations in the Ca 11 K-lines profile were studied with the CHF telescope at Mauna Kea. Results show that the same modulation of the emission flux of Ca 11 due to stellar rotation is present in the transition region feature of C IV and probably of He II. For other UV lines the modulation is not apparent, due to a more complex surface distribution of the active areas or supergranulation network, or a shorter lifetime of the conditions which give rise to these features, or to the uncertainities in the measured line strengths. The Mg II emission flux is constant to within + or - 3.4% implying a rather uniform distribution of Mg II emission areas. The Ca II emission not only shows a measurable variation in intensity but also variations in detailed line profile shape when observed at high resolution.

Boesgaard, A. M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

NESTEM-QRAS: A Tool for Estimating Probability of Failure

An interface between two NASA GRC specialty codes, NESTEM and QRAS has been developed. This interface enables users to estimate, in advance, the risk of failure of a component, a subsystem, and/or a system under given operating conditions. This capability would be able to provide a needed input for estimating the success rate for any mission. NESTEM code, under development for the last 15 years at NASA Glenn Research Center, has the capability of estimating probability of failure of components under varying loading and environmental conditions. This code performs sensitivity analysis of all the input variables and provides their influence on the response variables in the form of cumulative distribution functions. QRAS, also developed by NASA, assesses risk of failure of a system or a mission based on the quantitative information provided by NESTEM or other similar codes, and user provided fault tree and modes of failure. This paper will describe briefly, the capabilities of the NESTEM, QRAS and the interface. Also, in this presentation we will describe stepwise process the interface uses using an example.

Patel, Bhogilal M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Non-Gaussian PDF Modeling of Turbulent Boundary Layer Fluctuating Pressure Excitation

The purpose of the study is to investigate properties of the probability density function (PDF) of turbulent boundary layer fluctuating pressures measured on the exterior of a supersonic transport aircraft. It is shown that fluctuating pressure PDFs differ from the Gaussian distribution even for surface conditions having no significant discontinuities. The PDF tails are wider and longer than those of the Gaussian model. For pressure fluctuations upstream of forward-facing step discontinuities and downstream of aft-facing step discontinuities, deviations from the Gaussian model are more significant and the PDFs become asymmetrical. Various analytical PDF distributions are used and further developed to model this behavior.

Steinwolf, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS2007

Reliability and Creep/Fatigue Analysis of a CMC Component

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight and enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling; thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. There is a need for convenient design tools that can accommodate various loading conditions and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life as well as the failure probabilities of a structural component. This paper presents a review of the life prediction and probabilistic analyses performed for a CMC turbine stator vane. A computer code, NASALife, is used to predict the life of a 2-D woven silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) turbine stator vane due to a mission cycle which induces low cycle fatigue and creep. The output from this program includes damage from creep loading, damage due to cyclic loading and the combined damage due to the given loading cycle. Results indicate that the trends predicted by NASALife are as expected for the loading conditions used for this study. In addition, a combination of woven composite micromechanics, finite element structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Results indicate that reducing the scatter in proportional limit strength of the vane material has the greatest effect in improving the overall reliability of the CMC vane.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Evaluation of Elements used for Manufacturing of NanoLam Metallized Polymer Film Capacitors

Metallized polymer film capacitors (MPFC) manufactured by NanoLam technology have a better volumetric efficiency and performance that may exceed the reliability of conventional MPFCs typically used in power and high voltage systems that require high insulation resistance and low power losses. These capacitors can be also an effective replacement for electrolytic and stacked ceramic capacitors currently used in space applications looking to save significant volume and mass. This report evaluates the effects of environmental conditions including radiation and storage at room and high temperatures on the characteristics of NanoLam elements used in the production of MPFCs. Assessments of the reliability acceleration factors and predictions for the useful life are made based on highly accelerated life tests (HALT) using distributions of times to parametric failures at different stress conditions. It has been shown that even a relatively small amount of moisture absorbed at room environments in the dielectric layers may substantially change the probability of failure. In the presence of moisture, degradation processes that started after voltage application continue with time during storage.

Metallized polymer film capacitors (MPFC)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reference Site Condition Datasets for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States

Floating offshore wind farm design is highly site-specific, requiring detailed information about the specific conditions of a project area for realistic design studies. Unfortunately, publicly available site condition data for potential floating offshore wind project sites in the United States is scarce. To support U.S. offshore wind research, we developed reference site condition datasets, including metocean and seabed information, for four potential floating wind project areas in the U.S.: Humboldt Bay, Morro Bay, the Gulf of Maine, and the Gulf of Mexico. These datasets were compiled using publicly available data. Our metocean analysis, covering wind, waves, and surface currents, utilized measurement data from 2000 to 2020. Sources included the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s National Offshore Wind Dataset for wind data, National Data Buoy Center buoys for wave data, and the High Frequency Radar Network for surface currents. These data were integrated into hourly time series used to compute extreme return periods up to 500 years, monthly statistics, and joint probability clusters for fatigue analysis. Soil conditions were evaluated using the usSEABED database and bathymetry grids were interpolated from the NCEI Digital Elevation Model Global Mosaic. Further information on the datasets and how they were created can be found in: Biglu, M., M. Hall, E. Lozon, S. Housner. 2024. Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). NREL/TP-5000-89897. The data are also available at: https://github.com/FloatingArrayDesign/SiteConditions The content of each dataset is as follows: _NOW23_wind.txt: Hourly NOW-23 wind data up to a height of 400 meter. _metocean_1hr.txt: Hourly time series including wind, wave, surface current and temperature data. _Summary.xlsx: Metocean data, including extreme values, joint probability distributions and monthly statistics. _usSEABED_soil.csv: Extract of the usSEABED database for this specific site. _bathymetry_200m.txt (and 500m, 1000m): Gridded seabed depth data.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NASA NTRS2017

Statistical Characterization of 18650-Format Lithium-Ion Cell Thermal Runaway Energy Distributions

Effective thermal management systems, designed to handle the impacts of thermal runaway (TR) and to prevent cell-to-cell propagation, are key to safe operation of lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery assemblies. Critical factors for optimizing these systems include the total energy released during a single cell TR event and the fraction of the total energy that is released through the cell casing vs. through the ejecta material. A unique calorimeter was utilized to examine the TR behavior of a statistically significant number of 18650-format Li-ion cells with varying manufacturers, chemistries, and capacities. The calorimeter was designed to contain the TR energy in a format conducive to discerning the fractions of energy released through the cell casing vs. through the ejecta material. Other benefits of this calorimeter included the ability to rapidly test of large quantities of cells and the intentional minimization of secondary combustion effects. High energy (270 Wh/kg) and moderate energy (200 Wh/kg) 18650 cells were tested. Some of the cells had an imbedded short circuit (ISC) device installed to aid in the examination of TR mechanisms under more realistic conditions. Other variations included cells with bottom vent (BV) features and cells with thin casings (0.22 1/4m). After combining the data gathered with the calorimeter, a statistical approach was used to examine the probability of certain TR behavior, and the associated energy distributions, as a function of capacity, venting features, cell casing thickness and temperature.

Thermal Runaway Energy Distribution↗

NASA NTRS1975

Ultraviolet photometry from the Orbiting Astronomical Observatory. XX - The ultraviolet extinction bump

Ultraviolet extinction bumps are investigated in the interstellar extinction curves between 1800 and 3600 A for 36 stars which have (B-V) excesses ranging from 0.03 to 0.55 and are mostly confined to the brighter OB associations distributed along the galactic plane. Each extinction curve is found to have a broad bump which peaks near 2175 A and whose position and profile appear to be constant among all the stars. It is shown that the bump is probably interstellar in origin and that the constancy of its position and shape places such severe restrictions on grain geometrical parameters that classical scattering theory cannot be used to explain the feature unless the dust grains in widely separated regions of space and with very different physical conditions are assumed to have nearly identical size and shape distributions. Three extinction curves which extend to 1100 A are examined and found to have the same general characteristics as the others. Several extinction curves are analyzed for fine structure, but no convincing evidence is found in the present interval. Some processes are discussed which may be responsible for the bumps.

Savage, B. D.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Symbolic inversion of control relationships in model-based expert systems

Symbolic inversion is examined from several perspectives. First, a number of symbolic algebra and mathematical tool packages were studied in order to evaluate their capabilities and methods, specifically with respect to symbolic inversion. Second, the KATE system (without hardware interface) was ported to a Zenith Z-248 microcomputer running Golden Common Lisp. The interesting thing about the port is that it allows the user to have measurements vary and components fail in a non-deterministic manner based upon random value from probability distributions. Third, INVERT was studied as currently implemented in KATE, its operation documented, some of its weaknesses identified, and corrections made to it. The corrections and enhancements are primarily in the way that logical conditions involving AND's and OR's and inequalities are processed. In addition, the capability to handle equalities was also added. Suggestions were also made regarding the handling of ranges in INVERT. Last, other approaches to the inversion process were studied and recommendations were made as to how future versions of KATE should perform symbolic inversion.

Thomas, Stan↗

NASA NTRS1992

Land-mobile-satellite fade measurements in Australia

Attenuation measurements were implemented at L-band (1.5 GHz) in southeastern Australia during an 11-day period in October 1988 as part of a continuing examination of the propagation effects due to roadside trees and terrain for mobile-satellite service. Beacon transmissions from the geostationary ETS-V and IPORS satellites were observed. The Australian campaign expanded to another continent our Mobile Satellite Service data base of measurements executed in the eastern and southwestern United States regions. An empirical fade distribution model based on U.S. data predicted the Australian results with errors generally less than 1 dB in the 1-20 percent probability region. Directive antennas are shown to suffer deeper fades under severe shadowing conditions (3 dB excess at 4 percent), the equal-probability isolation between co- and cross-polarized transmissions deteriorated to 10 dB at the 5 dB fade level, and antenna diversity reception may reduce unavailability of the system by a factor of 2-8.

Vogel, Wolfhard J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reduced Order Modeling conditioned on monitored features for response and error bounds estimation in engineered systems

Reduced Order Models (ROMs) form essential tools across engineering domains by virtue of their function as surrogates for computationally intensive digital twinning simulators. Although purely data-driven methods are available for ROM construction, schemes that allow to retain a portion of the physics tend to enhance the interpretability and generalization of ROMs. However, physics-based techniques can adversely scale when dealing with nonlinear systems that feature parametric dependencies. This study introduces a generative physics-based ROM that is suited for nonlinear systems with parametric dependencies and is additionally able to provide numerical error bounds associated with the respective estimates. A main contribution of this work is the conditioning of these parametric ROMs to features that can be derived from monitoring measurements, feasibly in an online fashion. This is contrary to most existing ROM schemes, which remain restricted to the prescription of the physics-based, and usually a priori unknown, system parameters. Our work utilizes conditional Variational Autoencoders to continuously map the required reduction bases to a feature vector extracted from limited output measurements, while additionally allowing for a probabilistic assessment of the ROM-estimated Quantities of Interest. An auxiliary task using a neural network-based parametrization of suitable probability distributions is introduced to re-establish the link with physical model parameters. We verify the proposed scheme on a series of simulated case studies incorporating effects of geometric and material nonlinearity under parametric dependencies related to system properties and input load characteristics.

Conditional VAEs↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Loss of Control Detection for Commercial Transport Aircraft Using Conditional Variational Autoencoders

This work describes a detector for the loss of control condition of a commercial transport in flight. The detector has a belief state defined by the latent variable stochastic modeling of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) constructed with bidirectional recurrent layers. In 2000, the Boeing Company and the NASA Langley Research Center jointly developed a quantitative set of metrics for defining loss-of-control (LOC) for a commercial transport. We use the thresholds for these quantitative metrics to define a condition vector for training the CVAE. First, we demonstrate through experimentation that reconstruction probability is an accurate indicator that the vehicle has shifted to an LOC state. Second, we introduce a technique for inferring that the vehicle is approaching a flight state change by measuring a shift in the sampling distributions of the CVAE latent space. The sampling distributions for flight observations that are approaching envelope limits are localized to external areas of the latent space. We provide an analysis of its applicability to flight data from NASA’s dynamically-scaled generic transport model (GTM) aircraft.

Loss of control↗

NASA NTRS1992

Theory of hydrophobicity: transient cavities in molecular liquids

Observation of the size distribution of transient cavities in computer simulations of water, n-hexane, and n-dodecane under benchtop conditions shows that the sizes of cavities are more sharply defined in liquid water but the most-probable-size cavities are about the same size in each of these liquids. The calculated solvent atomic density in contact with these cavities shows that water applies more force per unit area of cavity surface than do the hydrocarbon liquids. This contact density, or "squeezing" force, reaches a maximum near cavity diameters of 2.4 angstroms. The results for liquid water are compared to the predictions of simple theories and, in addition, to results for a reference simple liquid. The numerical data for water at a range of temperatures are analyzed to extract a surface free energy contribution to the work of formation of atomic-size cavities. Comparison with the liquid-vapor interfacial tensions of the model liquids studied here indicates that the surface free energies extracted for atomic-size cavities cannot be accurately identified with the macroscopic surface tensions of the systems.

NASA Center ARC↗

NASA NTRS1978

Evaluation of a locally homogeneous model of spray evaporation

Measurements were conducted on an evaporating spray in a stagnant environment. The spray was formed using an air-atomizing injector to yield a Sauter mean diameter of the order of 30 microns. The region where evaporation occurred extended approximately 1 m from the injector for the test conditions. Profiles of mean velocity, temperature, composition, and drop size distribution, as well as velocity fluctuations and Reynolds stress, were measured. The results are compared with a locally homogeneous two-phase flow model which implies no velocity difference and thermodynamic equilibrium between the phases. The flow was represented by a k-epsilon-g turbulence model employing a clipped Gaussian probability density function for mixture fraction fluctuations. The model provides a good representation of earlier single-phase jet measurements, but generally overestimates the rate of development of the spray. Using the model predictions to represent conditions along the centerline of the spray, drop life-history calculations were conducted which indicate that these discrepancies are due to slip and loss of thermodynamic equilibrium between the phases.

Shearer, A. J.↗