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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Federated Learning Approach to Predicting Communication Demand in the National Airspace

Within the national airspace system (NAS), efficient use of spectrum remains a challenge; as UAS and UAM missions evolve, the amount of mission-critical aircraft communications are expected to significantly grow. To accommodate the increased demand, NASA Glenn Research Center is investigating artificial intelligence approaches that could dynamically allocate spectrum; however, these solutions are driven by communication and aviation data items, many of which are not directly available. One such cornerstone data item is communication demand, parameterizing the needs within a sector in terms that may directly inform spectrum allocation, such as channel access duration, bandwidth, and modulation type. This paper considers the complexity of predicting communication demand as a function of NAS behaviors. Unlike prior prediction work in communications, this research must consider how the NAS may be impacted by external factors - such as convective weather and closures - rather than estimating demand from time-series forecasting alone. Much of this research considers a federated learning design to predict communication events in terms of the type of event occurring (sector coordination, conflict resolution, etc). To do so, an investigation of products from Sherlock Data Warehouse is conducted, identifying the trends, sufficiency, and correlations of each product to identified events. Additionally, a preliminary discussion for inferring associations between these event types and their communication parameters (duration, bandwidth, modulation) is presented. By utilizing federated learning, imbalances in the types of events and data present throughout the NAS can inform local models without impairing global training. Furthermore, the two-stage approach proposed allows for robust and speculative communication modelling, as communication techniques continue to evolve. As a result, this model enables a generalized approach to understanding NAS communications which is able to inform long-term changes to aviation spectrum management.

Nathan Schimpf↗

NASA NTRS2023

Detect-and-Avoid in Off-Nominal Situations for Supersonic Transport Aircraft in Upper Class E Airspace

This thesis researches potential failure conditions within supersonic and potential hypersonic aircraft. The most critical off-nominal situations have been identified to be Engine Failures, Rapid Decompression and High Altitude Radiation. Having in mind, current regulatory requirements as well as past operations of Concorde, potential locations for different speeds have been modeled to identify safe operational volumes. With an emphasis on the engine failure case as part of the thesis requirement, a potential first order approach to future DAA systems is described in order to add these models on top of current conflict resolution models.

supersonic↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Roadmap to Cooperative Operating Practices for Strategic Conflict Detection and Resolution in the Upper Class-E Traffic Management Concept

As the governing body of flight operations in the highly anticipated emergent area of Upper Class E airspace (60,000 ft and above), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has recognized the potential for a possible extensible traffic management system for new entrants into this domain. Following the successes with Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) and Advanced / Urban Air Mobility (AAM / UAM) Traffic Management programs, FAA put forth an initial concept of operations for supporting the start of the Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM) concept. Like UTM and AAM / UAM, ETM is envisioned to also be a community-based, industry driven cooperative management concept. However, tailoring it to be adaptable to the atmospheric communication, navigation, and surveillance deficits, as well as the diverse vehicle and mission profiles operating in the ETM environment will be the challenge. As such, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center has been investigating several technologies that will help enable industry in the development of this new type of cooperative operating environment. These technologies are being prototyped and will be tested in a collaborative evaluation of an initial ETM system in late 2023. The evaluation will concentrate on building out ETM system technologies that will inform the participants regarding operational intent sharing, strategic conflict detection, and the resultant deconfliction process. In addition to the technical aspects, key roles and responsibilities will need to be defined. This will be done through exploring community-agreed upon Cooperative Operating Practices (COPs) that include procedures and capabilities to aid in timely, strategic conflict identification and resolution to be developed during the evaluation. As an initial step to the evaluation, the ETM research team at NASA Ames solicited industry feedback on various aspects of ETM operations from subject matter experts. A virtual tabletop walkthrough session was held over a two-day period to follow a roadmap through the functional steps needed to build COPs, focusing on strategic conflict detection and resolution. Overall, the ETM tabletop provided insights into how the community wanted to instantiate the generation and sharing of operational intent, detect strategic conflicts and resolve those conflicts using a preliminary set of procedural community-agreed upon COPs.

Upper Class-E Traffic Management (ETM)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Roadmap to Cooperative Operating Practices for Strategic Conflict Detection and Resolution in the Upper Class E Traffic Management Concept

Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM)↗

NASA NTRS2010

Formal Verification of Safety Buffers for Sate-Based Conflict Detection and Resolution

The information provided by global positioning systems is never totally exact, and there are always errors when measuring position and velocity of moving objects such as aircraft. This paper studies the effects of these errors in the actual separation of aircraft in the context of state-based conflict detection and resolution. Assuming that the state information is uncertain but that bounds on the errors are known, this paper provides an analytical definition of a safety buffer and sufficient conditions under which this buffer guarantees that actual conflicts are detected and solved. The results are presented as theorems, which were formally proven using a mechanical theorem prover.

Herencia-Zapana, Heber↗

NASA NTRS2012

SURF IA Conflict Detection and Resolution Algorithm Evaluation

The Enhanced Traffic Situational Awareness on the Airport Surface with Indications and Alerts (SURF IA) algorithm was evaluated in a fast-time batch simulation study at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center. SURF IA is designed to increase flight crew situation awareness of the runway environment and facilitate an appropriate and timely response to potential conflict situations. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the performance of the SURF IA algorithm under various runway scenarios, multiple levels of conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) system equipage, and various levels of horizontal position accuracy. This paper gives an overview of the SURF IA concept, simulation study, and results. Runway incursions are a serious aviation safety hazard. As such, the FAA is committed to reducing the severity, number, and rate of runway incursions by implementing a combination of guidance, education, outreach, training, technology, infrastructure, and risk identification and mitigation initiatives [1]. Progress has been made in reducing the number of serious incursions - from a high of 67 in Fiscal Year (FY) 2000 to 6 in FY2010. However, the rate of all incursions has risen steadily over recent years - from a rate of 12.3 incursions per million operations in FY2005 to a rate of 18.9 incursions per million operations in FY2010 [1, 2]. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) also considers runway incursions to be a serious aviation safety hazard, listing runway incursion prevention as one of their most wanted transportation safety improvements [3]. The NTSB recommends that immediate warning of probable collisions/incursions be given directly to flight crews in the cockpit [4].

Jones, Denise R.↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Generic Resolution Advisor and Conflict Evaluator (GRACE) for Detect-And-Avoid Systems

Java Architecture for Detect-And-Avoid (DAA) Extensibility and Modeling (JADEM) was developed at NASA Ames Research Center as a research and modeling tool for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS). UAS will be required to have DAA systems in order to fulfill the regulatory requirement to remain well clear'' of other traffic. JADEM supports research on technological requirements and Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for UAS DAA systems by providing a flexible and extensible software platform that includes models and algorithms for all major DAA functions. This paper describes one of these algorithms, the Generic Resolution Advisor and Conflict Evaluator (GRACE). GRACE supports two core DAA functions: threat evaluation and guidance. GRACE is generic in the sense that it is designed to work with any aircraft or sensor type (both cooperative and non-cooperative), and to be used in various applications and DAA guidance concepts, thus supporting evolving MOPS requirements and research. GRACE combines flexibility, robustness, and computational efficiency. It has modest memory requirements and can handle multiple cooperative and noncooperative intruders. GRACE has been used as a core JADEM component in several real-time and fast-time experiments, including human-in-the-loop simulations and live flight tests.

detect and avoid↗

NASA NTRS2017

Trajectory Specification for Terminal Air Traffic: Pairwise Conflict Detection and Resolution

Trajectory Specification is the explicit bounding and control of aircraft trajectories such that the position at any point in time is constrained to a precisely defined volume of space. The bounding space is defined by cross-track, along-track, and vertical tolerances relative to a reference trajectory that specifies position as a function of time. The tolerances are dynamic and will be based on the aircraft navigation capabilities and the current traffic situation. Assuming conformance, Trajectory Specification can guarantee safe separation for an arbitrary period of time even in the event of an air traffic control (ATC) system or datalink failure; hence it can help to achieve the high level of safety and reliability needed for ATC automation. It can also reduce the reliance on tactical backup systems during normal operation. This paper applies it to the terminal area around a major airport and presents algorithms and software for detecting and resolving conflicts. A representative set of pairwise conflicts was generated, and a fast-time simulation was run on them. All conflicts were successfully resolved in real time, demonstrating the computational feasibility of the concept.

terminal area↗

NASA NTRS1996

Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight

The safety and efficiency of free flight will benefit from automated conflict prediction and resolution advisories. Conflict prediction is based on trajectory prediction and is less certain the farther in advance the prediction, however. An estimate is therefore needed of the probability that a conflict will occur, given a pair of predicted trajectories and their levels of uncertainty. A method is developed in this paper to estimate that conflict probability. The trajectory prediction errors are modeled as normally distributed, and the two error covariances for an aircraft pair are combined into a single equivalent covariance of the relative position. A coordinate transformation is then used to derive an analytical solution. Numerical examples and Monte Carlo validation are presented.

Paielli, Russell A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Trajectory Specification for Terminal Air Traffic: Pairwise Conflict Detection and Resolution

Trajectory specification is the explicit bounding and control of aircraft trajectories such that the position at each point in time is constrained to a precisely defined volume of space. The bounding space is defined by cross-track, along-track, and vertical tolerances relative to a reference trajectory that specifies position as a function of time. The tolerances are dynamic and will be based on the aircraft navigation capabilities and the current traffic situation. A standard language will be developed to represent these specifications and to communicate them by datalink. Assuming conformance, trajectory specification can guarantee safe separation for an arbitrary period of time even in the event of an air traffic control (ATC) system or datalink failure, hence it can help to achieve the high level of safety and reliability needed for ATC automation. As a more proactive form of ATC, it can also maximize airspace capacity and reduce the reliance on tactical backup systems during normal operation. It applies to both enroute airspace and the terminal area around airports, but this paper focuses on the terminal area and presents algorithms and software for spacing arrivals and deconflicting both arrivals and departures.

air traffic control↗

NASA NTRS2009

Initial Concept for Terminal Area Conflict Detection, Alerting, and Resolution Capability on or Near the Airport Surface

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept for 2025 envisions the movement of large numbers of people and goods in a safe, efficient, and reliable manner. The NextGen will remove many of the constraints in the current air transportation system, support a wider range of operations, and deliver an overall system capacity up to 3 times that of current operating levels. In order to achieve the NextGen vision, research is necessary in the areas of surface traffic optimization, maximum runway capacity, reduced runway occupancy time, simultaneous single runway operations, and terminal area conflict prevention, among others. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is conducting Collision Avoidance for Airport Traffic (CAAT) research to develop technologies, data, and guidelines to enable Conflict Detection and Resolution (CD&R) in the Airport Terminal Maneuvering Area (ATMA) under current and emerging NextGen operating concepts. In this report, an initial concept for an aircraft-based method for CD&R in the ATMA is presented. This method is based upon previous NASA work in CD&R for runway incursion prevention, the Runway Incursion Prevention System (RIPS). CAAT research is conducted jointly under NASA's Airspace Systems Program, Airportal Project and the Aviation Safety Program, Integrated Intelligent Flight Deck Project.

Green, David F.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Initial Concept for Terminal Area Conflict Detection, Alerting, and Resolution Capability On or Near the Airport Surface, Version 2.0

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept for 2025 envisions the movement of large numbers of people and goods in a safe, efficient, and reliable manner. The NextGen will remove many of the constraints in the current air transportation system, support a wider range of operations, and deliver an overall system capacity up to 3 times that of current operating levels. In order to achieve the NextGen vision, research is necessary in the areas of surface traffic optimization, maximum runway capacity, reduced runway occupancy time, simultaneous single runway operations, and terminal area conflict prevention, among others. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is conducting Collision Avoidance for Airport Traffic (CAAT) research to develop technologies, data, and guidelines to enable Conflict Detection and Resolution (CD&R) in the Airport Terminal Maneuvering Area (ATMA) under current and emerging NextGen operating concepts. The term ATMA was created to reflect the fact that the CD&R concept area of operation is focused near the airport within the terminal maneuvering area. In the following, an initial concept for an aircraft-based method for CD&R in the ATMA is presented. This method is based upon previous NASA work in CD&R for runway incursion prevention, the Runway Incursion Prevention System (RIPS).

Otero, Sharon D.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Chorus Conflict and Loss of Separation Resolution Algorithms

The Chorus software is designed to investigate near-term, tactical conflict and loss of separation detection and resolution concepts for air traffic management. This software is currently being used in two different problem domains: en-route self- separation and sense and avoid for unmanned aircraft systems. This paper describes the core resolution algorithms that are part of Chorus. The combination of several features of the Chorus program distinguish this software from other approaches to conflict and loss of separation resolution. First, the program stores a history of state information over time which enables it to handle communication dropouts and take advantage of previous input data. Second, the underlying conflict algorithms find resolutions that solve the most urgent conflict, but also seek to prevent secondary conflicts with the other aircraft. Third, if the program is run on multiple aircraft, and the two aircraft maneuver at the same time, the result will be implicitly co-ordinated. This implicit coordination property is established by ensuring that a resolution produced by Chorus will comply with a mathematically-defined criteria whose correctness has been formally verified. Fourth, the program produces both instantaneous solutions and kinematic solutions, which are based on simple accel- eration models. Finally, the program provides resolutions for recovery from loss of separation. Different versions of this software are implemented as Java and C++ software programs, respectively.

Butler, Ricky W.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Automation for Air Traffic Control: The Rise of a New Discipline

The current debate over the concept of Free Flight has renewed interest in automated conflict detection and resolution in the enroute airspace. An essential requirement for effective conflict detection is accurate prediction of trajectories. Trajectory prediction is, however, an inexact process which accumulates errors that grow in proportion to the length of the prediction time interval. Using a model of prediction errors for the trajectory predictor incorporated in the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS), a computationally fast algorithm for computing conflict probability has been derived. Furthermore, a method of conflict resolution has been formulated that minimizes the average cost of resolution, when cost is defined as the increment in airline operating costs incurred in flying the resolution maneuver. The method optimizes the trade off between early resolution at lower maneuver costs but higher prediction error on the one hand and late resolution with higher maneuver costs but lower prediction errors on the other. The method determines both the time to initiate the resolution maneuver as well as the characteristics of the resolution trajectory so as to minimize the cost of the resolution. Several computational examples relevant to the design of a conflict probe that can support user-preferred trajectories in the enroute airspace will be presented.

Erzberger, Heinz↗

NASA NTRS2003

Using a Portfolio of Algorithms for Planning and Scheduling

The Automated Scheduling and Planning Environment (ASPEN) software system, aspects of which have been reported in several previous NASA Tech Briefs articles, includes a subsystem that utilizes a portfolio of heuristic algorithms that work synergistically to solve problems. The nature of the synergy of the specific algorithms is that their likelihoods of success are negatively correlated: that is, when a combination of them is used to solve a problem, the probability that at least one of them will succeed is greater than the sum of probabilities of success of the individual algorithms operating independently of each other. In ASPEN, the portfolio of algorithms is used in a planning process of the iterative repair type, in which conflicts are detected and addressed one at a time until either no conflicts exist or a user-defined time limit has been exceeded. At each choice point (e.g., selection of conflict; selection of method of resolution of conflict; or choice of move, addition, or deletion) ASPEN makes a stochastic choice of a combination of algorithms from the portfolio. This approach makes it possible for the search to escape from looping and from solutions that are locally but not globally optimum.

Sherwood, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1994

Conflict-free trajectory planning for air traffic control automation

As the traffic demand continues to grow within the National Airspace System (NAS), the need for long-range planning (30 minutes plus) of arrival traffic increases greatly. Research into air traffic control (ATC) automation at ARC has led to the development of the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS). CTAS determines optimum landing schedules for arrival traffic and assists controllers in meeting those schedules safely and efficiently. One crucial element in the development of CTAS is the capability to perform long-range (20 minutes) and short-range (5 minutes) conflict prediction and resolution once landing schedules are determined. The determination of conflict-free trajectories within the Center airspace is particularly difficult because of large variations in speed and altitude. The paper describes the current design and implementation of the conflict prediction and resolution tools used to generate CTAS advisories in Center airspace. Conflict criteria (separation requirements) are defined and the process of separation prediction is described. The major portion of the paper will describe the current implementation of CTAS conflict resolution algorithms in terms of the degrees of freedom for resolutions as well as resolution search techniques. The tools described in this paper have been implemented in a research system designed to rapidly develop and evaluate prototype concepts and will form the basis for an operational ATC automation system.

Slattery, Rhonda↗

NASA NTRS2000

Wind Prediction Accuracy for Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools

The performance of Air Traffic Management and flight deck decision support tools depends in large part on the accuracy of the supporting 4D trajectory predictions. This is particularly relevant to conflict prediction and active advisories for the resolution of conflicts and the conformance with of traffic-flow management flow-rate constraints (e.g., arrival metering / required time of arrival). Flight test results have indicated that wind prediction errors may represent the largest source of trajectory prediction error. The tests also discovered relatively large errors (e.g., greater than 20 knots), existing in pockets of space and time critical to ATM DST performance (one or more sectors, greater than 20 minutes), are inadequately represented by the classic RMS aggregate prediction-accuracy studies of the past. To facilitate the identification and reduction of DST-critical wind-prediction errors, NASA has lead a collaborative research and development activity with MIT Lincoln Laboratories and the Forecast Systems Lab of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This activity, begun in 1996, has focussed on the development of key metrics for ATM DST performance, assessment of wind-prediction skill for state of the art systems, and development/validation of system enhancements to improve skill. A 13 month study was conducted for the Denver Center airspace in 1997. Two complementary wind-prediction systems were analyzed and compared to the forecast performance of the then standard 60 km Rapid Update Cycle - version 1 (RUC-1). One system, developed by NOAA, was the prototype 40-km RUC-2 that became operational at NCEP in 1999. RUC-2 introduced a faster cycle (1 hr vs. 3 hr) and improved mesoscale physics. The second system, Augmented Winds (AW), is a prototype en route wind application developed by MITLL based on the Integrated Terminal Wind System (ITWS). AW is run at a local facility (Center) level, and updates RUC predictions based on an optimal interpolation of the latest ACARS reports since the RUC run. This paper presents an overview of the study's results including the identification and use of new large mor wind-prediction accuracy metrics that are key to ATM DST performance.

Cole, Rod↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Strategic and Tactical Functions in an Autonomous Air Traffic Management System

This paper evaluates, by means of fast-time simulation, performance of a candidate system for autonomous air traffic management. Advancing towards autonomy in air traffic management may be necessary in order for new air vehicle types such as electric Vertical Take Off and Landing (eVTOL) to operate safely and efficiently in airspace shared with conventional traffic. To account for uncertain prediction, autonomous air traffic management was divided into two integrated and coordinated subsystems: strategic scheduling, performed at predeparture, and tactical conflict detection and resolution, performed throughout the flight. The conflict detection and resolution subsystem contained a second tactical scheduling function that applied to flights operating in the airspace near the destination airport. This paper compares and contrasts the two subsystems and uses fast-time simulation to demonstrate the comparisons. A scenario of 54 flights inbound to Newark Liberty International Airport was simulated multiple times with different parameters. The scenario was created using flight plans recorded from the National Airspace System on a low weather, average traffic day in April 2018. Whereas the routes were not changed, the departure times of the flights were modified to increase arrival rates at the Newark runway and arrival meter fixes. Results of the simulations showed that the autonomous air traffic management system was able to safely manage the traffic, even with prediction uncertainty. In addition, they showed the importance of including flight holding maneuvers, in addition to path stretching, in conflict detection and resolution and of coordinating strategic and tactical scheduling. Finally, a tradeoff between absorbing the delay calculated by strategic scheduling on the ground versus in the air showed that taking most of the delay on the ground is cost effective for a simple idealized cost function. However, taking a little of the delay in the air prevented throughput on the runway from dropping for short periods due to trajectory prediction uncertainty.

air traffic control↗