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NASA NTRS2009

Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the number of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.

Grabbe, Shon R.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Convective Weather Avoidance with Uncertain Weather Forecasts

Convective weather events have a disruptive impact on air traffic both in terminal area and in en-route airspaces. In order to make sure that the national air transportation system is safe and efficient, it is essential to respond to convective weather events effectively. Traffic flow control initiatives in response to convective weather include ground delay, airborne delay, miles-in-trail restrictions as well as tactical and strategic rerouting. The rerouting initiatives can potentially increase traffic density and complexity in regions neighboring the convective weather activity. There is a need to perform rerouting in an intelligent and efficient way such that the disruptive effects of rerouting are minimized. An important area of research is to study the interaction of in-flight rerouting with traffic congestion or complexity and developing methods that quantitatively measure this interaction. Furthermore, it is necessary to find rerouting solutions that account for uncertainties in weather forecasts. These are important steps toward managing complexity during rerouting operations, and the paper is motivated by these research questions. An automated system is developed for rerouting air traffic in order to avoid convective weather regions during the 20- minute - 2-hour time horizon. Such a system is envisioned to work in concert with separation assurance (0 - 20-minute time horizon), and longer term air traffic management (2-hours and beyond) to provide a more comprehensive solution to complexity and safety management. In this study, weather is dynamic and uncertain; it is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. Algorithms are implemented in an air traffic simulation environment to support the research study. The algorithms used are deterministic but periodically revise reroutes to account for weather forecast updates. In contrast to previous studies, in this study convective weather is represented as regions of airspace that pilots are likely to avoid. The automated system periodically updates forecasts and reassesses rerouting decisions in order to account for changing weather predictions. The main objectives are to reroute flights to avoid convective weather regions and determine the resulting complexity due to rerouting. The eventual goal is to control and reduce complexity while rerouting flights during the 20 minute - 2 hour planning period. A three-hour simulation is conducted using 4800 flights in the national airspace. The study compares several metrics against a baseline scenario using the same traffic and weather but with rerouting disabled. The results show that rerouting can have a negative impact on congestion in some sectors, as expected. The rerouting system provides accurate measurements of the resulting complexity in the congested sectors. Furthermore, although rerouting is performed only in the 20-minute - 2-hour range, it results in a 30% reduction in encounters with nowcast weather polygons (100% being the ideal for perfectly predictable and accurate weather). In the simulations, rerouting was performed for the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon, and for the en-route segment of air traffic. The implementation uses CWAM, a set of polygons that represent probabilities of pilot deviation around weather. The algorithms were implemented in a software-based air traffic simulation system. Initial results of the system's performance and effectiveness were encouraging. Simulation results showed that when flights were rerouted in the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon of air traffic, there were fewer weather encounters in the first 20 minutes than for flights that were not rerouted. Some preliminary results were also obtained that showed that rerouting will also increase complexity. More simulations will be conducted in order to report conclusive results on the effects of rerouting on complexity. Thus, the use of the 20-minute - 2-hour flight time horizon weather avoidance teniques performed in the simulation is expected to provide benefits for short-term weather avoidance.

Karahan, Sinan↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of an Impedance Threshold Device as a VIIP Countermeasure

Visual Impairment /Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) is a top human spaceflight risk for which NASA does not currently have a proven mitigation strategy. Thigh cuffs (Braslets) and lower body negative pressure (LBNP; Chibis) devices have been or are currently being evaluated as a means to reduce VIIP signs and symptoms, but these methods alone may not provide sufficient relief of cephalic venous congestion and VIIP symptoms. Additionally, current LBNP devices are too large and cumbersome for their systematic use as a countermeasure. Therefore, a novel approach is needed that is easy to implement and provides specific relief of symptoms. This investigation will evaluate an impedance threshold device (ITD) as a VIIP countermeasure. The ITD works by providing up to 7 cm H2O (approximately 5 mmHg) resistance to inspiratory air flow, effectively turning the thorax into a vacuum pump upon each inhalation which lowers the intrathoracic pressure (ITP) and facilitates venous return to the heart. The ITD is FDA-approved and was developed to augment venous return to the central circulation and increase cardiac output during cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and in patients with hypotension. While the effect of ITD on CPR survival outcomes is controversial, the ITD's ability to lower ITP with a concomitant decrease in intracranial pressure (ICP) is well documented. A similar concept that creates negative ITP during exhalation (intrathoracic pressure regulator; ITPR) decreased ICP in 16 of 20 patients with elevated ICP in a hospital pilot study. ITP and central venous pressure (CVP) have been shown to decrease in microgravity however ITP drops more than CVP, indicating an increased transmural CVP. This could explain the paradoxical distention of jugular veins (JV) in microgravity despite lower absolute CVP and also suggests that JV transmural pressure is not dramatically elevated. Use of an ITD may lower JV pressure enough to remove or relieve cephalic venous congestion. During spaceflight experiments with Braslet thigh cuffs and modified (open-glottis) Mueller maneuvers, Braslets alone reduced cardiac preload but only reduced the internal JV (IJV) cross sectional area by 23%. The addition of Mueller maneuvers resulted in an IJV area reduction of 48%. This project will test if ITD essentially applies a Mueller maneuver with added negative ITP in every respiratory cycle, acting to: 1) reduce venous congestion in the neck and 2) potentially lower ICP. The expected mechanism of action is that in microgravity (or an analog) blood is relocated toward the heart from vasculature in the head and neck. Once validated, the ITD would be an exceptionally easy countermeasure to deploy and test on the ISS. Dosage could be altered though 1) duration of application and 2) inspiratory resistance set point. Effects could be additionally enhanced through co-application with other countermeasures such as thigh cuffs or LBNP.

Ebert, D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of an Impedance Threshold Device as a VIIP Countermeasure

Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) is a top human spaceflight risk for which NASA does not currently have a proven mitigation strategy. Thigh cuffs (Braslets) and lower body negative pressure (LBNP; Chibis) devices have been or are currently being evaluated as a means to reduce VIIP signs and symptoms, but these methods alone may not provide sufficient relief of cephalic venous congestion and VIIP symptoms. Additionally, current LBNP devices are too large and cumbersome for their systematic use as a countermeasure. Therefore, a novel approach is needed that is easy to implement and provides specific relief of symptoms. This investigation will evaluate an impedance threshold device (ITD) as a VIIP countermeasure. The ITD works by providing up to 7 cm H2O (approximately 5 mmHg) resistance to inspiratory air flow, effectively turning the thorax into a vacuum pump upon each inhalation which lowers the intrathoracic pressure (ITP) and facilitates venous return to the heart. The ITD is FDA-approved and was developed to augment venous return to the central circulation and increase cardiac output during cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and in patients with hypotension. While the effect of ITD on CPR survival outcomes is controversial, the ITD's ability to lower ITP with a concomitant decrease in intracranial pressure (ICP) is well documented. A similar concept that creates negative ITP during exhalation (intrathoracic pressure regulator; ITPR) decreased ICP in 16 of 20 patients with elevated ICP in a hospital pilot study. ITP and central venous pressure (CVP) have been shown to decrease in microgravity however ITP drops more than CVP, indicating an increased transmural CVP. This could explain the paradoxical distention of jugular veins (JV) in microgravity despite lower absolute CVP and also suggests that JV transmural pressure is not dramatically elevated. Use of an ITD may lower JV pressure enough to remove or relieve cephalic venous congestion. During spaceflight experiments with Braslet thigh cuffs and modified (open-glottis) Mueller maneuvers, Braslets alone reduced cardiac preload but only reduced the internal JV (IJV) cross sectional area by 23%. The addition of Mueller maneuvers resulted in an IJV area reduction of 48%. This project will test if ITD essentially applies a Mueller maneuver with added negative ITP in every respiratory cycle, acting to: 1) reduce venous congestion in the neck and 2) potentially lower ICP. The expected mechanism of action is that in microgravity (or an analog) blood is relocated toward the heart from vasculature in the head and neck. Once validated, the ITD would be an exceptionally easy countermeasure to deploy and test on the ISS. Dosage could be altered though 1) duration of application and 2) inspiratory resistance set point. Effects could be additionally enhanced through co-application with other countermeasures such as thigh cuffs or LBNP.

Ebert, Douglas↗

NASA NTRS2016

Cyber-Threat Assessment for the Air Traffic Management System: A Network Controls Approach

Air transportation networks are being disrupted with increasing frequency by failures in their cyber- (computing, communication, control) systems. Whether these cyber- failures arise due to deliberate attacks or incidental errors, they can have far-reaching impact on the performance of the air traffic control and management systems. For instance, a computer failure in the Washington DC Air Route Traffic Control Center (ZDC) on August 15, 2015, caused nearly complete closure of the Centers airspace for several hours. This closure had a propagative impact across the United States National Airspace System, causing changed congestion patterns and requiring placement of a suite of traffic management initiatives to address the capacity reduction and congestion. A snapshot of traffic on that day clearly shows the closure of the ZDC airspace and the resulting congestion at its boundary, which required augmented traffic management at multiple locations. Cyber- events also have important ramifications for private stakeholders, particularly the airlines. During the last few months, computer-system issues have caused several airlines fleets to be grounded for significant periods of time: these include United Airlines (twice), LOT Polish Airlines, and American Airlines. Delays and regional stoppages due to cyber- events are even more common, and may have myriad causes (e.g., failure of the Department of Homeland Security systems needed for security check of passengers, see [3]). The growing frequency of cyber- disruptions in the air transportation system reflects a much broader trend in the modern society: cyber- failures and threats are becoming increasingly pervasive, varied, and impactful. In consequence, an intense effort is underway to develop secure and resilient cyber- systems that can protect against, detect, and remove threats, see e.g. and its many citations. The outcomes of this wide effort on cyber- security are applicable to the air transportation infrastructure, and indeed security solutions are being implemented in the current system. While these security solutions are important, they only provide a piecemeal solution. Particular computers or communication channels are protected from particular attacks, without a holistic view of the air transportation infrastructure. On the other hand, the above-listed incidents highlight that a holistic approach is needed, for several reasons. First, the air transportation infrastructure is a large scale cyber-physical system with multiple stakeholders and diverse legacy assets. It is impractical to protect every cyber- asset from known and unknown disruptions, and instead a strategic view of security is needed. Second, disruptions to the cyber- system can incur complex propagative impacts across the air transportation network, including its physical and human assets. Also, these implications of cyber- events are exacerbated or modulated by other disruptions and operational specifics, e.g. severe weather, operator fatigue or error, etc. These characteristics motivate a holistic and strategic perspective on protecting the air transportation infrastructure from cyber- events. The analysis of cyber- threats to the air traffic system is also inextricably tied to the integration of new autonomy into the airspace. The replacement of human operators with cyber functions leaves the network open to new cyber threats, which must be modeled and managed. Paradoxically, the mitigation of cyber events in the airspace will also likely require additional autonomy, given the fast time scale and myriad pathways of cyber-attacks which must be managed. The assessment of new vulnerabilities upon integration of new autonomy is also a key motivation for a holistic perspective on cyber threats.

Complex Networks↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Achieving Equilibrium for Dense, Integrated, Vehicle Navigation

Drone usage has proliferated in recent years with many applications that have market-changing potential. Applications that include parcel delivery, wildlife protection, precision farming, law enforcement, and industrial inspection, just to name a few. In this paper, the term drone is used to mean both Unmanned Aerial Vehicle and small Unmanned Aircraft System vehicles. Flight infrastructure can currently only support a few thousand aircraft flying over the United States National Airspace System (NAS) at any given time. A delay atone airport sends ripple effects through the system, causing more delays and missed connections. Once regulations and safety policies are put in place to allow for the widespread use of unmanned drones, the number of aircraft in the NAS is expected to skyrocket to millions, potentially congesting the airspace resulting in possible separation violations. In air traffic control, separation is the concept of keeping an “ownship” aircraft outside a minimum distance from “intruder” aircraft to reduce the risk of the aircraft colliding, as well as preventing accidents due to secondary factors, such as wake turbulence. Maintaining proper separation is a safety critical property for drones in the airspace. This paper addresses separation in time and in distance for high volume corridors (en-route) and lanes(on ground). The requirements and necessary conditions for maintaining proper separation and reaching maximum throughput for a given corridor/lane are addressed assuming unidirectional corridors/lanes where an aircraft arrives from one side and departs from the opposite side. Simulation results are presented that show the presented solution guarantees a set of drones to reach the equilibrium state by adjusting their speed based on their distance to the aircraft in front of them. The equilibrium state is defined as a state when a set of n aircraft moving at a relatively constant speed and uniform spacing from each other in a congested system. A congested system is defined as a state when the aircraft cannot move at their maximum allowed speed. Unlike existing centralized and pre-planned approaches, the proposed solution is fully distributed and enables autonomous aircraft to decide to adjust their speed and distance with respect to the preceding aircraft, dynamically. Simulation results are presented that assess the feasibility of the approach using a large number of drones and evaluate the scalability of the proposed solution.

Mahyar R. Malekpour↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantum-Accelerated Distributed Algorithms for Approximate Steiner Trees and Directed Minimum Spanning Trees

We present two algorithms in the Quantum CONGEST-CLIQUE model of distributed computation that succeed with high probability; One for producing an approximately optimal Steiner Tree, and one for producing an exact Minimum Directed Spanning tree. These use O(n1/4) rounds of communication and O(n9/4) messages, leading to a quantum speedup in round and message complexity compared to any known algorithms in the classical CONGEST-CLIQUE model (vs O(n1/3) and O(n7/3)). At a high level, we achieve these results by combining classical algorithms with fast quantum subroutines. Further, these problems can not be sped up in the CONGEST (non-clique) setting, and we characterize the constants involved.

Phillip Kerger↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Strategic Approach for Dense, Integrated, Vehicle Navigation

Drone usage has been on the rise in recent years with applications that include parcel delivery, wildlife protection, precision farming, law enforcement, and industrial inspection, just to name a few. Once regulations and safety policies are put in place to allow for the widespread use of unmanned drones, the number of aircraft in the National Airspace System (NAS) is expected to skyrocket to millions, potentially congesting the airspace which increases the likelihood of separation violations and possibly incidents. Currently, flight infrastructure can only support a few thousand aircraft flying over the United States National Airspace System (NAS) at any given time. A delay at one airport can send ripple effects throughout the system, causing more delays and missed connections. In air traffic control, separation is the concept of keeping an “ownship” aircraft outside a minimum distance from “intruder” aircraft to reduce the risk of the aircraft colliding, as well as preventing accidents due to secondary factors, such as wake turbulence. Maintaining proper separation is often a safety critical property for fixed-wing drones in the airspace. This paper addresses drone separation in time and distance for high volume corridors (en route) and lanes (on ground), merging as well as crossing intersections of multiple corridors/lanes. In this paper, the term drone is applied to both Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and small Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) vehicles operating autonomously. There exists a gamut of approaches to the merging and crossing problems. At one end of the extreme are the conservative yet low cost and verifiable solutions of today that deal with two drones at a time. At the other end are complex Machine Learning-based solutions with high computing requirements for fully autonomous drones of the future that are expected to handle all contentions. This paper presents a feasible and verifiable strategic approach to these problems that is based on distributed cooperation between the drones and the infrastructure. Three phases of the strategic approach (Prepare, Adjust, Commit) are presented. Simulation results are presented that show the proposed approach is stable and resilient to induced perturbations and guarantees a set of fixed-wing drones to merge and cross intersections by adjusting their speed based on their distance to the aircraft in front of them while remaining in the equilibrium state. The equilibrium state is defined as the state when a set of n aircraft move at a relatively constant speed and uniform spacing from each other in a congested system. A congested system is defined as the state when at least one aircraft cannot move at its maximum allowed speed. Unlike existing centralized and pre-planned approaches, the proposed solution is fully distributed and enables autonomous aircraft to decide to adjust their speed and distance with respect to the preceding aircraft, dynamically. Simulation results are presented that assess the feasibility of the approach.

Distributed↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Strategic Approach for Dense, Integrated, Vehicle Navigation

Distributed↗

DOE OSTI2020

High Performance Computing Traffic Simulations for Real-Time Traffic Control of Mobility in Chattanooga Region

In 2019, highway congestion wasted over 3 billion gallons of fuel and caused 8.8 billion hours of lost productivity.1 Research has shown that introducing near-real time traffic controls can significantly reduce congestion. Validated and calibrated traffic simulations enable the modeling of transportation systems and the evaluation of different traffic control actions and schemes given a variety of circumstances that represent likely future scenarios. The developed scenarios can inform the deployment of controls in near real-time to improve freight and passenger vehicle congestion and energy use. In this work, we present simulations used to model the traffic in the Chattanooga, Tennessee, metropolitan area. Simulations were constructed and calibrated using a variety of local, data science enhanced, data sources utilizing open source software including the Simulation of Urban Mobility (SUMO) simulator. High-Performance Computing (HPC) provides a scalable platform with enough computing for the high-fidelity simulation of many scenarios and the application of advance data science especially for large-scale systems. Our simulations include microscopic simulations at a corridor level for traffic signal control, and mesoscopic simulations to evaluate regional operational controls and infrastructure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Visualization and Quantification of Wind Induced Variability in Hydrogen Clouds Following Releases of Liquid Hydrogen: Preprint

Well characterized experimental data for consequence model validation is important in progressing the use of liquid hydrogen as an energy carrier. In 2019, the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) undertook a series of liquid hydrogen dispersion and combustion experiments as a part of the Pre-normative Research into the Safe Use of Liquid Hydrogen (PRESLHY) project. In partnership between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and HSE, time and spatially varying hydrogen concentration measurements were made in 25 dispersion experiments and 23 congested ignition experiments associated with PRESLHY WP3 and WP5, respectively. These measurements were undertaken using the hydrogen wide area monitoring system developed by NREL. During the 23 congested ignition experiments, high variability was observed in the measured explosion severity during experiments with similar initial conditions. This led to the conclusion that wind, including localized gusts, had a large influence on the dispersion of the hydrogen, and therefore the quantity of hydrogen that was present in the congested region of the explosions. Using the hydrogen concentration measurements taken immediately prior to ignition, the hydrogen clouds were visualized in an attempt to rationalize the variability in overpressure between the tests. Gaussian process regression was applied to quantify the variability of the measured hydrogen concentrations. This analysis could also be used to guide modifications in experimental designs for future research on hydrogen combustion behavior.

HSR&D↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design, Preparation, and Execution of the 100-AV Field Test for the CIRCLES Consortium: Methodology and Implementation of the Largest Mobile Traffic Control Experiment to Date

This article presents the comprehensive design, setup, execution, and evaluation of the MegaVanderTest (MVT) experiment conducted by the Congestion Impacts Reduction via CAV-in-the-Loop Lagrangian Energy Smoothing (CIRCLES) Consortium, which aimed to mitigate traffic congestion using partially autonomous vehicles (AVs) (see “Summary”). The experiment involved 100 vehicles on Nashville’s Interstate 24 (I-24) highway, utilizing various control algorithms to smooth stop-and-go traffic waves. The execution of the MVT experiment required a coordinated effort from multiple teams. This article details the meticulous planning process, the coordinated efforts of multiple teams, and the innovative use of a dynamic agent-based simulation framework for traffic evaluation. Here, the contributions of this work include demonstrating and providing a detailed roadmap for large-scale live traffic experiments, illustrating the lessons learned from the MVT experiment, and introducing the other articles in this issue and their complementary relationship in the MVT experiment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interregional Transmission Operational Coordination (IRTOC)

This report presents a modeling and evaluation framework developed through the Inter-Regional Transmission Operational Coordination (IRTOC) project to study market-to-market (M2M) congestion management across day-ahead and real-time markets. The framework extends the Sienna platform through Sienna Decomposition, a multi-stage evaluation architecture that enables flexible representation of multiple regions and systematic assessment of alternative market coordination designs. Additional modeling capabilities include reserve deliverability constraints, High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) optimization for Alternating Current (AC) congestion management, and several real-time distributed coordination algorithms. Case studies using the RTS-GMLC test system and a large-scale Eastern Interconnection model demonstrate that the framework can evaluate alternative coordination structures and quantify their economic and operational impacts. The proposed framework provides a scalable platform for analyzing inter-regional coordination strategies in large-scale electricity markets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantum Distributed Algorithms for Approximate Steiner Trees and Directed Minimum Spanning Trees

We present two algorithms in the Quantum CONGEST- CLIQUE model of distributed computation that succeed with high probability; one for producing an approximately optimal Steiner Tree, and one for producing an exact directed minimum spanning tree, each of which uses O ̃(n1/4) rounds of communication and O ̃(n9/4) messages, achieving a lower asymptotic round and message complexity than any known algorithms in the classical CONGEST-CLIQUE model. At a high level, we achieve these results by combining classical algorithms with fast quantum subroutines. Additionally, we characterize the constants and logarithmic factors involved in our algorithms, as well as related classical algorithms, revealing that advances are needed to render both practical.

quantum computing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantum Distributed Algorithms for Approximate Steiner Trees and Directed Minimum Spanning Trees

We present two algorithms in the Quantum CONGEST- CLIQUE model of distributed computation that succeed with high probability; one for producing an approximately optimal Steiner Tree, and one for producing an exact directed minimum spanning tree, each of which uses O ̃(n 1/4 ) rounds of communication and O ̃(n 9/4 ) messages, achieving a lower asymptotic round and message complexity than any known algorithms in the classical CONGEST-CLIQUE model. At a high level, we achieve these results by combining classical algorithms with fast quantum subroutines. Additionally, we characterize the constants and logarithmic factors involved in our algorithms, as well as related classical algorithms, revealing that advances are needed to render both practical.

quantum computing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interregional Transmission Operational Coordination

This presentation will discuss challenges and opportunities on interregional coordination in the areas of interchange transaction, congestion management, reserve sharing and deliverability across multi-stage operational processes. It will then provide an overview of the interregional transmission operational coordination (IRTOC) project that currently focuses on congestion management, including Inter-regional transmission coordination in real time operations and operational planning, HVDC optimization (intra- and interregional), ancillary service deliverability (intra- and interregional). In addition, it will discuss the Sienna-Decomposition tool development to systematically study interregional coordination methods.

congestion management↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian modeling of traffic-related air pollutants: A case study of urban transportation and air quality dynamics in Columbia, South Carolina

Traffic emissions significantly impact near-road air quality and public health. This research applies a Bayesian modeling framework to investigate these impacts using high-resolution traffic and air pollutant data from an urban corridor in Columbia, South Carolina. Despite a data collection period truncated by the COVID-19 lockdown, the Bayesian approach successfully identified significant predictors and quantified model uncertainty. Employing Bayesian Model Selection and Averaging enhanced prediction accuracy and evaluated model uncertainty. Findings indicate that higher temperatures and increased moisture levels elevate particulate matter (PM 1.0 , PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) concentrations, while traffic speed significantly affects nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels. Specifically, higher average traffic speeds (indicative of smoother flow) correspond to lower NO 2 concentrations, suggesting that less congested conditions reduce NO 2 emissions. This study highlights the robustness of Bayesian methods for generating reliable air quality insights even under data-constrained conditions. The findings underscore the importance of traffic flow management (e.g., reducing congestion) for mitigating near-road NO 2 exposure and provide a basis for developing targeted public health strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

A review of United States energy-only generator interconnection service policy and considerations for reform

Grid interconnection has emerged as a significant obstacle to the development of new electricity resources. There is growing interest in energy-only interconnection, which is an interconnection service option meant to allow the interconnection of new generators without ensuring their energy deliverability during all hours through the transmission system to customers. This approach potentially avoids upfront congestion-related transmission upgrades but could increase curtailment risk. Interest in energy-only interconnection is shaped by incomplete understanding of how interconnection policy functions in different jurisdictions, a knowledge gap that makes it difficult to determine how energy-only interconnection might be better used or re-designed. In this paper, we provide a regulatory review of energy-only interconnection in U.S. interconnection policy and practice, identifying jurisdictions in which rules are close to -or farther from-the theoretical concept of energy-only interconnection service. We find substantial jurisdictional differences in how energy-only interconnection is implemented, driven by differences in resource adequacy frameworks, real-time transmission operations, and state-level procurement practices. U.S. regulators have preferred local jurisdictional flexibility over federal prescription of interconnection study methods and procedures, which also contributes to differences among regions. Such findings raise fundamental questions about whether competition policies in electricity markets should extend beyond spot energy markets and into more prescriptive guidelines around interconnection rules and market entry. This paper sheds light on tensions that energy-only interconnection raises in allowing generators to access the transmission system on an as available basis and discusses how controlling thresholds for congestion-related network upgrades may be a barrier to electricity market entry.

Gorman, Will↗