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DOE OSTI2026

Linking Community‐Climate Disequilibrium to Ecosystem Function

Turnover in species composition often lags behind the pace of climate change, resulting in mismatches between climate and communities. However, the impact of these community‐climate disequilibria on ecosystem functions is rarely considered, and current methods for measuring disequilibria assume that species ranges were, until recently, in equilibrium with climate. Here, in this work, we develop a simple theoretical model to address both of these problems by linking community‐climate disequilibrium with ecosystem functioning. We show how disequilibrium can impair functioning in the near‐term even when climate change is expected to enhance functioning in the long‐term. Responses are most likely to change over time in communities where turnover is slow, the impact of disequilibrium counteracts the direct effects of climate on ecosystem function, and pre‐existing disequilibrium is large. These findings emphasise the importance of precise and unbiased estimates of community‐climate disequilibria for improving ecological forecasts. By fitting our model to time series of both climate and ecosystem function from a metacommunity simulation, we show the potential for community‐climate disequilibrium to be inferred without direct knowledge about species' distributions or climatic tolerances. We end by outlining a research agenda to apply dynamic disequilibrium concepts and test novel hypotheses across diverse ecosystems.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2026

Combined dark matter search towards dwarf spheroidal galaxies with Fermi -LAT, HAWC, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS

Dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) are excellent targets for indirect dark matter (DM) searches using gamma-ray telescopes because they are thought to have high DM content and a low astrophysical background. The sensitivity of these searches is improved by combining the observations of dSphs made by different gamma-ray telescopes. We present the results of a combined search by the most sensitive currently operating gamma-ray telescopes, namely: the satellite-borne Fermi -LAT telescope; the ground-based imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope arrays H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS; and the HAWC water Cherenkov detector. Individual datasets were analyzed using a common statistical approach. Results were subsequently combined via a global joint likelihood analysis. We obtain constraints on the velocity-weighted cross section 〈σv〉 for DM self-annihilation as a function of the DM particle mass. This five-instrument combination allows the derivation of up to 2-3 times more constraining upper limits on 〈σv〉 than the individual results over a wide mass range spanning from 5 GeV to 100 TeV. Depending on the DM content modeling, the 95% confidence level observed limits reach 1.5×10 -24 cm 3 s -1 and 3.2×10 -25 cm 3 s -1 , respectively, in the τ + τ - annihilation channel for a DM mass of 2 TeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Thermal Disorder‐Induced Strain and Carrier Localization Activate Reverse Halide Segregation

The reversal of halide ions is studied under various conditions. However, the underlying mechanism of heat-induced reversal remains unclear. This work finds that dynamic disorder-induced localization of self-trapped polarons and thermal disorder-induced strain (TDIS) can be co-acting drivers of reverse segregation. Localization of polarons results in an order of magnitude decrease in excess carrier density (polaron population), causing a reduced impact of the light-induced strain (LIS – responsible for segregation) on the perovskite framework. Meanwhile, exposing the lattice to TDIS exceeding the LIS can eliminate the photoexcitation-induced strain gradient, as thermal fluctuations of the lattice can mask the LIS strain. Under continuous 0.1 W cm -2 illumination (upon segregation), the strain disorder is estimated to be 0.14%, while at 80 °C under dark conditions, the strain is 0.23%. However, in situ heating of the segregated film to 80 °C under continuous illumination (upon reversal) increases the total strain disorder to 0.25%, where TDIS is likely to have a dominant contribution. Therefore, the contribution of entropy to the system's free energy is likely to dominate, respectively. Various temperature-dependent in situ measurements and simulations further support the results. These findings highlight the importance of strain homogenization for designing stable perovskites under real-world operating conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hazard and risk analysis framework for nuclear power plant–based integrated energy systems

Employing integrated energy systems (IESs) with nuclear power plants (NPPs) can improve NPP utilization by leveraging dedicated thermal and electric power delivery, but it may also increase operational safety risks. This paper presents a framework to identify and quantify hazards and risks for such IESs. The framework combines accidentology to review past industrial accidents with failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify potential future incidents. Hydrogen explosion and toxic chemical release hazards are of particular concern. Explosion consequences are quantified using the Bauwens-Dorofeev (Bauwens) and trinitrotoluene equivalent mass (TNT-EM) methods, while chemical release consequences are computed using the Gaussian atmospheric dispersion method. Operational disturbances from direct electrical and thermal integration that may affect NPP safety are modeled using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Hazards and risks are then evaluated for regulatory compliance. The framework is applied to IESs comprising pressurized or boiling water reactors supplying three levels of thermal and electrical power to industrial customers. Case studies include high-temperature steam electrolysis hydrogen plants of varying capacities and a synthetic fuel production plant. Sensitivity analysis examines piping component failures in the PRA model as a precursor to cost estimation for thermal extraction line design. Additionally, Fussel-Vessely (FV) and risk increase importance (RII) measures identify risk-informed design improvements for the thermal extraction system. FMEA highlights hazards such as loss of offsite power, prompt loss of electrical load, loss of thermal output, and immediate steam diversion, in addition to hydrogen explosions and toxic chemical releases. Both Bauwens and TNT-EM methods suggest maintaining several hundred meters of separation between the NPP and hydrogen facility to mitigate explosion risks. PRA results show a maximum initiating event frequency increase of 1.15% and an overall risk increase of 0.28%. Importance measure analysis identifies upstream pipe leak isolation components as critical. Evaluating the results against safety regulations, it is concluded that hazards and risks can be managed to comply with regulations through risk-informed thermal and electrical connection designs, component selection, maintenance programs, and safe separation distances between NPPs and integrated industrial facilities.

08 - HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heterotrophic respiration by soil microbes in a changing climate

Soil microbes strongly influence the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool, which globally stores ~2,000 PgC. Specifically, the balance between microbial heterotrophic respiration (R H ), which degrades SOC, and plant–microbe interactions that stabilize SOC determines whether terrestrial ecosystems are a net source or sink of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Here, in this Review, we evaluate how climate change alters these competing processes. R H is approximately half of total soil respiration, at ~50 PgC yr −1 , with 70% occurring in topsoils. Warming accelerates microbial metabolism, with a 10 °C temperature increase estimated to raise R H by ~50%, an effect that is particularly strong in Arctic soils. Warming also reduces soil moisture, further modulating R H , which responds nonlinearly to soil moisture, being limited by saturation and desiccation and meeting a maximum at intermediate levels. Consequently, R H is highly sensitive to future precipitation changes and drought. However, soil management strategies could enhance SOC stocks and persistence under climate change. Bacterial and fungal inoculants can promote SOC production and stabilization, while deep-rooting plants increase SOC inputs to deeper layers that experience lower R H . Agricultural practices and biochar amendments can also enhance SOC and reduce R H . Expanding field trials across regions, climates and soil types would improve empirical understanding of these responses and support better representation of R H in predictive models, enabling more accurate assessments of climate impacts on SOC storage.

Jansson, Janet K. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗

DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR↗

DOE OSTI2026

Single-Nucleon Transfer on Unstable 59 Cu Probes the NiCu Cycle in Astrophysical X-Ray Bursts

Recent models of the rapid proton (𝑟⁢𝑝) capture process indicate that a competition between the 59 Cu⁢(𝑝,𝛾) ⁢60 Zn and 59 Cu⁢(𝑝,𝛼) ⁢56 Ni reactions may result in the formation of a nickel-copper (NiCu) cycle that traps the flux of material between 56 Ni and 60 Zn . Here, in this work, we report the identification of 15 proton-unbound levels in 60 Zn , populated via 59 Cu⁢(𝑑,𝑛) transfer, which govern the rate of the 59 Cu⁢(𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 60 Zn reaction in XRBs. Precise excitation energies for levels in 60 Zn were obtained from observed 𝛾 decays, and spectroscopic factors were determined from angle-integrated cross sections. Incorporating these results into stellar-model calculations, we find that with experimentally constrained uncertainties a NiCu cycle in XRBs is indeed possible, though we limit its branching strength to less than 38%. While modest, such a branching has significant impact on the light curve, motivating further studies of the relevant rates. Our calculations also indicate that a significant NiCu cycle leads to an increase in the amount of odd-𝐴 nuclei in the burst ashes, which may affect Urca cooling processes in neutron star crusts.

direct reactions↗

DOE OSTI2025

First multi-institutional systematic comparison of the neutron ambient dose equivalent produced by proton therapy systems

Objective. Isochronous cyclotrons, synchrocyclotrons, and synchrotrons are used to accelerate protons for proton therapy. An accurate measurement of neutron doses generated by these accelerators and associated delivery systems and its clinical relevance requires systematic protocols and proper neutron dosimetry for a meaningful assessment. We present the first comprehensive comparison of neutron ambient dose equivalent (H*(10)) produced by clinically operational proton therapy systems. Approach. Treatment plans with 10 cm modulation-depth and ranges of 10 cm (R10M10) and 25 cm (R25M10) were created to cover a 10 × 10 × 10 cm 3 water target. The pencil beam scanning proton therapy machines studied were: two gantry-mounted synchrocyclotrons (Hyperscan, Mevion, half-gantry), two isochronous cyclotrons (ProBeam, Varian, full-gantry), one isochronous cyclotron (Proteus, IBA, full-gantry), and two synchrotrons (PROBEAT, Hitachi, full- and half-gantry). Proton beams were delivered to 30 × 30 × 40 cm 3 plastic water phantoms. WENDI-II and LUPIN-BF3-NP neutron rem-meters were positioned at three angles (0°, 45°, 90°) relative to the beam direction to measure the neutron H*(10) at distances between 50–300 cm from the isocenter. Main results. H*(10) showed dependence on beam energy, machine type, and measurement location. The highest reading was for the gantry-mounted synchrocyclotron, whereas other systems produced approximately comparable neutron doses. In all cases, the H*(10) reduced with distance from the isocenter. The H*(10) drop at 2 m distance compared to that at 0.5 m was a factor of ∼5 for the gantry-mounted synchrocyclotron whereas in other systems the decrease was a factor of 10. The WENDI-II device suffered from dead-time-associated under-estimation of the dose by a factor of ∼2–3 under the synchrocyclotron beam due to its high dose-per-pulse. However, WENDI-II and LUPIN-BF3-NP results were within reasonable agreement in isochronous cyclotron and synchrotron beams, indicating that both devices are suitable for those systems. Significance. Neutron H*(10) is dependent on various parameters including beam energy, measurement location, as well as machine design. Caution must be exercised in choosing the appropriate neutron-dose-measurement device to be used for low-duty-factor, particularly in high-instantaneous-rate proton delivery systems. By delivering the same volumetric proton dose across different machines, this work provides a benchmark for inter-system comparisons and serves as a foundation for future studies.

LUPIN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dark energy survey year 3 results: likelihood-free, simulation-based w CDM inference with neural compression of weak-lensing map statistics

We present simulation-based cosmological wcold dark matter (wCDM) inference using dark energy survey year 3 weak-lensing maps, via neural data compression of weak-lensing map summary statistics: power spectra, peak counts, and direct map-level compression/inference with convolutional neural networks (CNN). Using simulation-based inference, also known as likelihood-free or implicit inference, we use forward-modelled mock data to estimate posterior probability distributions of unknown parameters. This approach allows all statistical assumptions and uncertainties to be propagated through the forward-modelled mock data; these include sky masks, non-Gaussian shape noise, shape measurement bias, source galaxy clustering, photometric redshift uncertainty, intrinsic galaxy alignments, non-Gaussian density fields, neutrinos, and non-linear summary statistics. We include a series of tests to validate our inference results. This paper also describes the Gower Street simulation suite: 791 full-sky pkdgrav3 dark matter simulations, with cosmological model parameters sampled with a mixed active-learning strategy, from which we construct over 3000 mock dark energy survey lensing data sets. For wCDM inference, for which we allow –1 < w < –$\frac{1}{3}$⁠, our most constraining result uses power spectra combined with map-level (CNN) inference. Using gravitational lensing data only, this map-level combination gives Ω m = 0.283$^{+0.020}_{–0.027}$⁠, S 8 = 0.804$^{+0.025}_{–0.017⁠}$, and w < –0.80 (with a 68 per cent credible interval); compared to the power spectrum inference, this is more than a factor of two improvement in dark energy parameter (Ω⁠ DE , w⁠) precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

SPT clusters with DES and HST weak lensing. II. Cosmological constraints from the abundance of massive halos

We present cosmological constraints from the abundance of galaxy clusters selected via the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (SZ) effect in South Pole Telescope (SPT) data with a simultaneous mass calibration using weak gravitational lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The cluster sample is constructed from the combined SPT-SZ, SPTpol ECS, and SPTpol 500d surveys, and comprises 1,005 confirmed clusters in the redshift range 0.25–1.78 over a total sky area of 5200 deg 2 . We use DES Year 3 weak-lensing data for 688 clusters with redshifts 𝑧 < 0.95 and HST weak-lensing data for 39 clusters with 0.6 < 𝑧 < 1.7. The weak-lensing measurements enable robust mass measurements of sample clusters and allow us to empirically constrain the SZ observable-mass relation without having to make strong assumptions about, e.g., the hydrodynamical state of the clusters. For a flat Λ⁢ CDM cosmology, and marginalizing over the sum of massive neutrinos, we measure Ω m = 0.286 ± 0.032, 𝜎 8 = 0.817 ± 0.026, and the parameter combination 𝜎 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.25 = 0.805 ± 0.016. Our measurement of 𝑆 8 ≡ 𝜎 8 ⁢$\sqrt{Ω_{m}/0.3}$ = 0.795 ± 0.029 and the constraint from Planck CMB anisotropies (2018 TT, TE, EE+lowE) differ by 1.1⁢𝜎. In combination with that Planck dataset, we place a 95% upper limit on the sum of neutrino masses ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.18 eV. When additionally allowing the dark energy equation of state parameter 𝑤 to vary, we obtain 𝑤 = −1.45 ± 0.31 from our cluster-based analysis. In combination with Planck data, we measure 𝑤 =−1.3⁢4$^{+0.22}_{−0.15}$, or a 2.2⁢𝜎 difference with a cosmological constant. We use the cluster abundance to measure 𝜎8 in five redshift bins between 0.25 and 1.8, and we find the results to be consistent with structure growth as predicted by the Λ⁢ CDM model fit to Planck primary CMB data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Metrology for femtosecond pulsed x-ray heating in diamond anvil cell experiments at the European XFEL: Revisiting the iron phase diagram up to 150 GPa

The development of pulsed intense x-ray sources, such as free electron laser, offers new avenues for high pressure experiments. Here, we study the feasibility and metrology of x-ray heating in diamond anvil cells at the European x-ray free electron laser. This method enables one to volumetrically heat the sample while inhibiting chemical migration and probing the crystallographic structure of the sample throughout the heating with a high repetition rate. We focus our study on iron, whose phase diagram is well established up to 100 GPa, to explore the possibilities and limitations of this technique. We volumetrically heat iron samples at starting pressures ranging from 10 to 138 GPa, using the x-ray beam pulsed at 4.5 MHz in a serial pump-and-probe experimental design. Experimental challenges arise from temperature gradients within the sample, changes in temperature at the 100 ns timescale, the difficulty of direct temperature estimates, the effect of thermal pressure, and the presence of metastable crystallites due to rapid cycles of heating and cooling. Hence, we develop a multi-crystal-like data processing method that allows us to account for sample heterogeneity in probed conditions. We then calibrate our measurements using known physical properties of iron under pressure. Thermal pressure in our experiments increases from 4% of the isochoric prediction at 10 GPa to 23% at 138 GPa, and we show that our data are in agreement with most previous observations of iron in this pressure range. The method can now be implemented at higher pressures and temperatures and on materials with unknown phase diagrams.

Materials science↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reconstruction of cosmic-ray muon events with CUORE

We report the in-situ 3D reconstruction of through-going muons in the CUORE experiment, a cryogenic calorimeter array searching for neutrinoless double beta (0vββ) decay, leveraging the segmentation of the detector. Due to the slow time response of the detector, time-of-flight estimation is not feasible. Therefore, the track reconstruction is performed using a multi-objective optimization algorithm that relies on geometrical information from the detector as a whole. We measure the integral flux of cosmic-ray muons underground at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso, and find our value to be in good agreement with other experiments that have performed a similar measurement. To our knowledge, this work represents the first demonstration of 3D particle tracking and reconstruction of through-going muons with per-event angular determination in a millikelvin cryogenic detector array. The analysis performed for this work will be critical for validating the muon-related background in CUPID, a next-generation 0vββ experiment, and for follow-up studies on detector response and on delayed products induced by cosmic-ray muons.

Adams, D. Q. [University of South Carolina]↗