Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “constrained estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 145 records · Page 8

A Generalized Stress Inversion Approach With Application to Residual Stress Estimation

In this work develop a generalized stress inversion technique (or the generalized inversion method) capable of recovering stresses in linear elastic bodies subjected to arbitrary cuts. Specifically, given a set of displacement measurements found experimentally from digital image correlation (DIC), we formulate a stress estimation inverse problem as a partial differential equation-constrained optimization problem. We use gradient-based optimization methods, and we accordingly derive the necessary gradient and Hessian information in a matrix-free form to allow for parallel, large-scale operations. By using a combination of finite elements, DIC, and a matrix-free optimization framework, the generalized inversion method can be used on any arbitrary geometry, provided that the DIC camera can view a sufficient part of the surface. We present numerical simulations and experiments, and we demonstrate that the generalized inversion method can be applied to estimate residual stress.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Small instanton-induced flavor invariants and the axion potential

Small instantons which increase the axion mass due to an appropriate modification of QCD at a UV scale ΛSI, can also enhance the effect of CP-violating operators to shift the axion potential minimum by an amount, θ ind, proportional to the flavorful couplings in the SMEFT. Since physical observables must be flavor basis independent, we construct a basis of determinant-like flavor invariants that arise from instanton calculations containing the effects of dimension-six CP-odd operators at the scale Λ CP . This new basis provides a more reliable estimate of the shift θ ind, that is severely constrained by neutron electric dipole moment experiments. In particular, for the case of four-quark, semi-leptonic and gluon dipole operators, these invariants are then used to provide improved limits on the ratio of scales Λ SI /Λ CP for different flavor scenarios. The CP-odd flavor invariants also provide a classification of the leading effects from Wilson coefficients, and as an example, we show that a semi-leptonic four-fermion operator is subdominant compared to the four-quark operators. More generally, the flavor invariants, together with an instanton NDA, can be used to more accurately estimate small instanton effects in the axion potential that arise from any SMEFT operator.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Clustering redshifts and importance sampling of self-organized-maps 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations for 3 × 2 ⁢pt samples

This work is part of a series establishing the redshift framework for the 3 × 2 ⁢pt analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6). For DES Y6, photometric redshift distributions are estimated using self-organizing maps (SOMs), calibrated with spectroscopic and many-band photometric data. To overcome limitations from color-redshift degeneracies and incomplete spectroscopic coverage, we enhance this approach by incorporating clustering-based redshift constraints (clustering-z, or WZ) from angular cross-correlations with BOSS and eBOSS galaxies and eBOSS quasar samples. We define a WZ likelihood and apply importance sampling to a large ensemble of SOM-derived 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations, selecting those consistent with the clustering measurements to produce a posterior sample for each lens and source bin. The analysis uses angular scales corresponding to 1.5–5 Mpc to optimize signal-to-noise ratio while mitigating modeling uncertainties and marginalizes over redshift-dependent galaxy bias and other systematics informed by the N-body simulation CARDINAL . While a sparser spectroscopic reference sample limits WZ constraining power at 𝑧 >1.1, particularly for source bins, we demonstrate that combining SOM with WZ improves redshift accuracy and enhances the overall cosmological constraining power of DES Y6. As a result, we estimate an improvement in 𝑆 8 of approximately 10% for cosmic shear and 3 ×2⁢pt analysis, primarily due to the WZ calibration of the source samples.

Cosmological parameters↗

Kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect with ACT, DES, and BOSS: A novel hybrid estimator

The kinematic and thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (kSZ and tSZ) effects probe the abundance and thermodynamics of ionized gas in galaxies and clusters. We present a new hybrid estimator to measure the kSZ effect by combining cosmic microwave background temperature anisotropy maps with photometric and spectroscopic optical survey data. The method interpolates a velocity reconstruction from a spectroscopic catalog at the positions of objects in a photometric catalog, which makes it possible to leverage the high number density of the photometric catalog and the precision of the spectroscopic survey. Combining this hybrid kSZ estimator with a measurement of the tSZ effect simultaneously constrains the density and temperature of free electrons in the photometrically selected galaxies. Using the 1000 deg 2 of overlap between the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 5, the first three years of data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) Data Release 12, we detect the kSZ signal at 4.8 σ and reject the null (no-kSZ) hypothesis at 5.1 σ . This corresponds to 2.0 σ per 100,000 photometric objects with a velocity field based on a spectroscopic survey with 1 / 5 th the density of the photometric catalog. For comparison, a recent ACT analysis using exclusively spectroscopic data from BOSS measured the kSZ signal at 2.1 σ per 100,000 objects. Our derived constraints on the thermodynamic properties of the galaxy halos are consistent with previous measurements. With future surveys, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, we expect that this hybrid estimator could result in measurements with significantly better signal-to-noise than those that rely on spectroscopic data alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Industrial emission inventories of iron and phosphorus for past, present and future

Global emission inventories of aerosol iron by species, and of phosphorus, were developed for inclusion in Earth system modeling that includes atmospheric transport. The time period covered was 1850-2010 to evaluate human influence. A variety of approaches to compare measured and modeled values of aerosol iron was synthesized to estimate how well anthropogenic emissions are known. Anthropogenic emissions are constrained within a factor of two and if there is a bias, it is an overestimation. The exception is shipping emissions, which may be underestimated. Direct radiative forcing by iron aerosol is small in the global average (0.02 W m -2 ) but reaches 0.25 W m -2 around source regions. Regions of high direct radiative forcing are poorly constrained by observations. The central value of change in oceanic net primary productivity due to iron deposition is about 0.26 PgC yr -1 , also highly localized. This leads to a decrease in atmospheric CO2 accumulation that corresponds to a forcing of 0.008 W m -2 since 1850 (0.003-0.18 W m -2 ). Emissions of particulate matter to 2050 were estimated in response to different policy scenarios, including the need for renewable energy installations under decarbonization scenarios. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the total metal demand is 195 Mt/yr in 2020, peaking at 270 Mt/yr in years 2040-2045; under the Rapid Decarbonization scenario, total metal demand is nearly doubled at its peak: 480 Mt/yr in year 2040. Primary particulate matter emissions attributable to processing metals for renewable energy are also amplified under rapid decarbonization, but total atmospheric emissions are much lower because of the shift away from combustion.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Constraining magnetic fields in the circumgalactic medium

ABSTRACT We study the properties of magnetic fields in the circumgalactic medium (CGM) of z < 1 galaxies by correlating Faraday rotation measures (RMs) of ∼1000 high-redshift radio sources with the foreground galaxy number density estimated from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys. This method enables us to extract signals of RMs contributed by intervening gas around multiple galaxies. Our results show that there is no detectable correlation between the distribution of RMs and the number of foreground galaxies, contrary to several previous results. Utilizing the non-detection signals, we estimate 3σ upper limits to the RMs from the CGM of $\sim \!20 \rm \ rad\, m^{-2}$ within 50 kpc and $\sim \!10 \rm \ rad \, m^{-2}$ at separations of 100 kpc. By adopting a column density distribution of ionized gas obtained from absorption-line measurements, we further estimate the strengths of coherent magnetic fields parallel to the line of sight of $\lt \rm 2 \ \mu G$ in the CGM. We show that the estimated upper limits of RMs and magnetic field strengths are sufficient to constrain outputs of recent galaxy magnetohydrodynamic simulations. Finally, we discuss possible causes for the inconsistency between our results and previous works.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fermi and Swift Observations of GRB 190114C: Tracing the Evolution of High-energy Emission from Prompt to Afterglow

We report on the observations of gamma-ray burst (GRB) 190114C by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory . The prompt gamma-ray emission was detected by the Fermi GRB Monitor (GBM), the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), and the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) and the long-lived afterglow emission was subsequently observed by the GBM, LAT, Swift X-ray Telescope (XRT), and Swift UV Optical Telescope. The early-time observations reveal multiple emission components that evolve independently, with a delayed power-law component that exhibits significant spectral attenuation above 40 MeV in the first few seconds of the burst. This power-law component transitions to a harder spectrum that is consistent with the afterglow emission observed by the XRT at later times. This afterglow component is clearly identifiable in the GBM and BAT light curves as a slowly fading emission component on which the rest of the prompt emission is superimposed. As a result, we are able to observe the transition from internal-shock- to external-shock-dominated emission. We find that the temporal and spectral evolution of the broadband afterglow emission can be well modeled as synchrotron emission from a forward shock propagating into a wind-like circumstellar environment. We estimate the initial bulk Lorentz factor using the observed high-energy spectral cutoff. Considering the onset of the afterglow component, we constrain the deceleration radius at which this forward shock begins to radiate in order to estimate the maximum synchrotron energy as a function of time. We find that even in the LAT energy range, there exist high-energy photons that are in tension with the theoretical maximum energy that can be achieved through synchrotron emission from a shock. These violations of the maximum synchrotron energy are further compounded by the detection of very high-energy (VHE) emission above 300 GeV by MAGIC concurrent with our observations. We conclude that the observations of VHE photons from GRB 190114C necessitates either an additional emission mechanism at very high energies that is hidden in the synchrotron component in the LAT energy range, an acceleration mechanism that imparts energy to the particles at a rate that is faster than the electron synchrotron energy-loss rate, or revisions of the fundamental assumptions used in estimating the maximum photon energy attainable through the synchrotron process.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reactor rate modulation oscillation analysis with two detectors in Double Chooz

A θ 13 oscillation analysis based on the observed antineutrino rates at the Double Chooz far and near detectors for different reactor power conditions is presented. This approach provides a so far unique simultaneous determination of θ 13 and the total background rates without relying on any assumptions on the specific background contributions. The analysis comprises 865 days of data collected in both detectors with at least one reactor in operation. The oscillation results are enhanced by the use of 24.06 days (12.74 days) of reactor-off data in the far (near) detector. The analysis considers the ${\overline{\nu}}_e$ interactions up to a visible energy of 8.5 MeV, using the events at higher energies to build a cosmogenic background model considering fast-neutrons interactions and 9 Li decays. The background-model-independent determination of the mixing angle yields sin 2 (2 θ 13 ) = 0.094 ± 0.017, being the best-fit total background rates fully consistent with the cosmogenic background model. A second oscillation analysis is also performed constraining the total background rates to the cosmogenic background estimates. While the central value is not significantly modified due to the consistency between the reactor-off data and the background estimates, the addition of the background model reduces the uncertainty on θ 13 to 0.015. Along with the oscillation results, the normalization of the anti-neutrino rate is measured with a precision of 0.86%, reducing the 1.43% uncertainty associated to the expectation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Molecule-surface interaction from van der Waals-corrected semilocal density functionals: The example of thiophene on transition-metal surfaces

Semilocal density functional approximations are widely used. None of them can capture the long-range van der Waals (vdW) attraction between separated subsystems, but they differ remarkably in the extent to which they capture intermediate-range vdW effects responsible for equilibrium bonds between neighboring small closed-shell subsystems. The local density approximation (LDA) often overestimates this effect, while the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof (PBE) generalized gradient approximation (GGA) underestimates it. The strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) meta-GGA often estimates it well. All of these semilocal functionals require an additive nonlocal correction such as the revised Vydrov-Van Voorhis 2010 (rVV10) to capture the long-range part. This work reports adsorption energies and the corresponding geometry of aromatic thiophene (C 4 H 4 S) bound to transition-metal surfaces. The adsorption process requires a genuine interplay of covalent and weak binding and requires a simultaneously accurate description of surface and adsorption energies with the correct prediction of the adsorption site. All these quantities must come from well-balanced short- and long-range correlation effects for a universally applicable method for weak interactions with chemical accuracy. Here, our methods indicate that the correct interplay is not present in any combination of recent meta-GGA's and rVV10. The simple short-range damping of the vdW correction scheme that is practically successful in the combination of GGA's and vdW approximations is less transferable in SCAN+rVV10 or in the revised version, revSCAN+rVV10. In addition, we present accurate random-phase-approximation-quality adsorption energies from a model based on the one of Zaremba and Kohn.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Joint Inversion of Regional Waveform, First-Motion Polarity, and Synthetic Aperture Radar Surface Displacement for the Fourth and Sixth North Korean Declared Nuclear Explosions

Here, this study analyzed the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) fourth (DPRK4, 6 January 2016 M w 4.49) and sixth (DPRK6, 7 September 2017 M w 5.2) declared nuclear tests, employing a joint seismic and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) inversion to improve understanding of these events and enhance moment tensor (MT) inversion capabilities. The recent efforts have focused on employing seismic waveform and InSAR geodetic deformation data separately to analyze these and the previous nuclear tests (e.g., Chiang et al., 2018; Myers et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018). Building upon our previous work (Chi-Durán et al., 2021), we performed a joint regional waveform, first-motion (FM) polarity, and surface displacement inversion, which demonstrated improved source-type discrimination, a revised MT solution with reduced scalar moment uncertainty, and an independently constrained location. In this article, we build on the previous results for DPRK6 by including an analysis using a four-layered velocity model with free-surface topography to compute the near-source static deformation Green’s functions. The model consists of a 50 m basalt layer (⁠V P = 2.07 km/s, V S = 1.2 km/s⁠), a 250 m stratified volcanic deposit layer (⁠V P = 1.73 km/s, V S = 1.0 km/s⁠), a 700 m weathered granodiorite layer (⁠V P = 2.5 km/s, V S = 1.3 km/s⁠⁠), and a granodiorite half-space (⁠V P = 5.35 km/s, V S = 3.09 km/s⁠⁠). The half-space shares the velocity of the regional MDJ2 velocity model (Ford et al., 2010), which has proven effective for waveform inversion in the region. This model considers the range of reported values for various lithologies and weathering effects. Our findings show that using the layered velocity model enhances the recovery of source location and depth for both the explosions by improving fits and reducing uncertainties. The joint inversion also improves source-type discrimination and better constrains the scalar seismic moment necessary for downstream yield estimation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Energy Options Analysis Project (Final Report)

This Bear River Band of Rohnerville Rancheria (BRB) Energy Options Analysis Project provides a rigorous and comprehensive near-term renewable energy implementation plan that aligns with the BRB’s long term strategic vision of “zero net annual utility energy consumption.” Final recommendations were arrived at by following four key project phases:A gas and electricity load assessment was conducted for all existing buildings using historic consumption data, and projected loads of new or anticipated buildings using building designs. A renewable energy resource assessment was conducted that estimated the gross generation potential of solar and wind, constrained to areas that could potentially be developed. Other renewable generation technologies were not considered feasible to meet the loads of the BRB. Demand-side efficiency and fuel switching opportunities were identified that can reduce electrical and gas consumption. These opportunities were not integrated into the load assessment in order to provide a conservative implementation plan, but are recommended to be pursued in order to cost-optimize projects during a feasibility assessment. A strategic vision advisory committee was organized and consulted when iterating on the viability of possible projects. These project phases resulted in finalizing the following three solar PV projects for the near term, which also lay the foundation for a future community-scale or multiple-facility microgrid for added resiliency. Additional solar PV on the hillside south of the Tish-Non Community Center. Solar plus battery storage microgrid at the Pump & Play fuel station. Solar PV at the Casino.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fluorine Limits and Impacts in High-Level Waste Glass Compositions

The impact of elevated fluorine (F) content on Hanford high-level waste (HLW) glasses has not previously been studied in detail. This effort represents the first systematic study to determine what F concentration limits should be used for the design of alkali-borosilicate-based Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) HLW glasses, and to document the technical basis for that limit. If alkali borosilicate glass made from Hanford HLW can accommodate a large amount of F, the large capital costs for complex sludge washing facilities may be avoided, as would much of the operational costs and negative schedule impacts associated with handling the large volumes of water required to dissolve these salts. In order to determine a limit for F in likely HLW glass compositions, an evaluation was conducted on glasses with F ≤ 0.90 mass% from previous nuclear waste glass studies. The collected dataset contains 239 glasses (232 HLW glasses and 7 LAW glasses) including 109 glasses with 0.9 ≤ F mass% ≤ 2.5, 116 with 2.5 < F mass% ≤ 8.0, and 14 with F mass% ≥ 8 (max. F mass% = 17.42). The collected composition and property data were analyzed to determine the basis for the F tolerance, i.e. the maximum F concentration that can be processed without potential issues. Fluorine volatility, product consistency test (PCT) response, liquidus temperature (T L ), glass melt viscosity, and crystallinity have been investigated. No limits for F concentration can be made based on F volatility, T L , or glass melt viscosity, because the data show that high F in glasses do not indicate, with high probability, being restricted by those property constrains. However, crystallinity and PCT response were used to estimate the F tolerance. The results show that glasses with high F (≥ 0.90 mass%) are more likely to form large fractions of F-containing crystal phases which may increase PCT responses, i.e. decrease the glass durability. Based on the results of crystallinity and PCT data, the F tolerance of 4.5 mass% is estimated. There is no evidence of other glass components, such as calcium oxides and alkali metal oxides have combined impacts with F on the glass properties. Overall, the available high-F glass data is limited, especially in the designed HLW glass composition regions. Future work on formulation and testing of HLW glasses with F ≥ 0.9 mass% will close the data gaps and expand operational flexibility with respect to the fluoride tolerances. Volatility of F from melters and corrosion of materials in contact with glass melts are important for processing of high-F wastes; yet no test data are currently available. It is recommended tests be conducted to address these two potential issues.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Semiglobal Safety-Filtered Extremum Seeking With Unknown CBFs

We introduce a safe extremum-seeking (Safe ES) algorithm which achieves the minimization of an unknown objective function while ensuring that an unknown, yet measured, control barrier function (CBF) remains above an arbitrarily small negative value for all time. In other words, “practical safety” is maintained during the entire period of convergence to the constrained extremum. Our design is based on quadratic program (QP) CBF style filters for safety, which is applied in an average and estimated sense. Using nonsmooth analysis tools, we guarantee semiglobal practical asymptotic (SPA) stability of the global constrained optimum, practical convergence to the safe set if starting in a condition violating the CBF, and practical safety for all time—semiglobally—if starting in safe set. The safety result of the paper is analogous with modern notions of SPA stability, guaranteeing that, for any small violation of safety, there exist design coefficients which guarantee that such a small violation is not exceeded. The paper outlines a set of sufficient conditions on the barrier and objective functions, and by way of a Lyapunov argument, we demonstrate that nonconvex constrained optimization problems can be solved. We present these results in the setting of a static map and a dynamical system. A simulation example illustrates the results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimating List-Mode Data Sensitivities to Nuclear Data with MCNP6

Nuclear data are a vital component of predictive simulations used in applications like experiment design, stockpile stewardship, nuclear nonproliferation/safeguards, health physics, and criticality safety. A singular simulation requires the coalescence of different areas of nuclear data such as cross sections, angular distributions, and energy distributions of emitted neutrons for different materials and energy ranges. Improving nuclear data and thus reducing the uncertainty in simulated parameters could enable smaller, better-informed safety factors and ultimately reduce operational and procedural costs. There is a constant effort to garner a better understanding of the physical quantities represented by nuclear data through experiments. Integral experiment benchmarks use simulated and measured results to validate current nuclear data values. In the past, benchmarks primarily focused on the effective multiplication factor (k eff ); however, this limited scope has caused compensating errors and areas of nuclear data that lack validation. Compensating errors are inaccuracies in nuclear data that are obfuscated by cancellation when observing integrated values such as k eff . Diverse integral benchmark experiments that look for quantities of interest other than k eff and include multiple responses minimize the possibility of compensating errors and provides validation to areas of nuclear data previously lacking experimental validation. Benchmark experiments can be optimized during the design process to be highly dependent on specific areas of nuclear data. The dependence of a response in an experiment to a specific area/type of nuclear data is defined as sensitivity. A larger sensitivity means that nuclear data uncertainties will play a larger role in the response(s) resulting in larger bias. Currently, the sensitivity capabilities of the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP ®1 ) transport code are limited to responses of k eff and tallied values (e.g., flux, surface current). As a part of the EUCLID project, this work explores estimating list-mode nuclear data sensitivities that can be used to design experiments aimed to constrain and reduce compensating errors in nuclear data by focusing on responses other than k eff . Tallied values are ideal quantities that are estimated with detectors during experiments. List-mode data (a list of neutron collection times) are the direct output of detector systems in subcritical neutron noise experiments. Expanding MCNP sensitivity capabilities to include the sensitivity of responses estimated from list-mode data, such as the prompt neutron decay constant (α) and multiplicity estimates (S and D), enables more direct comparison of simulated and measured experimental quantities. Additionally, deterministic tools such as SENSMG are capable of obtaining sensitivities to a wide variety of responses; however, these tools cannot handle complex geometries due to the assumptions made in discretizing the phase-space variables of the Boltzman transport equation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat

Abstract. Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, has retreated and accelerated through the 21st century, raising concerns that it could be a significant contributor to future sea-level rise. We use a data-constrained ensemble of three-dimensional higher-order ice sheet model simulations to estimate the likely range of sea-level rise from the continued retreat of Humboldt Glacier. We first solve for basal traction using observed ice thickness, bed topography, and ice surface velocity from the year 2007 in a PDE-constrained (partial differential equation) optimization. Next, we impose calving rates to match mean observed retreat rates from winter 2007–2008 to winter 2017–2018 in a transient calibration of the exponent in the power-law basal friction relationship. We find that power-law exponents in the range of 1/7–1/5 – rather than the commonly used 1/3–1 – are necessary to reproduce the observed speedup over this period. We then tune an iceberg calving parameterization based on the von Mises stress yield criterion in another transient-calibration step to approximate both observed ice velocities and terminus position in 2017–2018. Finally, we use the range of basal friction relationship exponents and calving parameter values to generate the ensemble of model simulations from 2007–2100 under three climate forcing scenarios from CMIP5 (two RCP8.5 forcings, Representative Concentration Pathway) and CMIP6 (one SSP5-8.5 forcing, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). Our simulations predict 5.2–8.7 mm of sea-level rise from Humboldt Glacier, significantly higher than a previous estimate (∼ 3.5 mm) and equivalent to a substantial fraction of the 40–140 mm predicted by ISMIP6 from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet. Our larger future sea-level rise prediction results from the transient calibration of our basal friction law to match the observed speedup, which requires a semi-plastic bed rheology. In many simulations, our model predicts the growth of a sizable ice shelf in the middle of the 21st century. Thus, atmospheric warming could lead to more retreat than predicted here if increased surface melt promotes hydrofracture of the ice shelf. Our data-constrained simulations of Humboldt Glacier underscore the sensitivity of model predictions of Greenland outlet glacier response to warming to choices of basal shear stress and iceberg calving parameterizations. Further, transient calibration of these parameterizations, which has not typically been performed, is necessary to reproduce observed behavior. Current estimates of future sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet could, therefore, contain significant biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Semi‐Mechanistic Model for Partitioning Evapotranspiration Reveals Transpiration Dominates the Water Flux in Drylands

Abstract Popular evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning methods make assumptions that might not be well‐suited to dryland ecosystems, such as high sensitivity of plant water‐use efficiency (WUE) to vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Our objectives were to (a) create an ET partitioning model that can produce fine‐scale estimates of transpiration (T) in drylands, and (b) use this approach to evaluate how climate controls T and WUE across ecosystem types and timescales along a dryland aridity gradient. We developed a novel, semi‐mechanistic ET partitioning method using a Bayesian approach that constrains abiotic evaporation using process‐based models, and loosely constrains time‐varying WUE within an autoregressive framework. We used this method to estimate daily T and weekly WUE across seven dryland ecosystem types and found that T dominates ET across the aridity gradient. Then, we applied cross‐wavelet coherence analysis to evaluate the temporal coherence between focal response variables (WUE and T/ET) and environmental variables. At yearly scales, we found that WUE at less arid, higher elevation sites was primarily limited by atmospheric moisture demand, and WUE at more arid, lower elevation sites was primarily limited by moisture supply. At sub‐yearly timescales, WUE and VPD were sporadically correlated. Hence, ecosystem‐scale dryland WUE is not always sensitive to changes in VPD at short timescales, despite this being a common assumption in many ET partitioning models. This new ET partitioning method can be used in dryland ecosystems to better understand how climate influences physically and biologically driven water fluxes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Temporal Error Correlations in a Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Model Derived by Comparison to Carbon Dioxide Eddy Covariance Flux Tower Measurements

Abstract Atmospheric CO 2 flux inversions require as input an estimate of spatial and temporal correlations of errors in their estimate of the prior mean. Some previous studies have used the differences in CO 2 daily average flux estimates produced by terrestrial carbon cycle models and eddy covariance measurements to constrain the flux error correlations. Since inversions are starting to resolve the daily cycle, we set out to examine the correlations at sub‐daily time scales, as well as the correlations across years. To this end, we examine the autocorrelations in the difference between net ecosystem‐atmosphere exchange measurements from 75 AmeriFlux towers and temporally downscaled high‐spatial‐resolution flux estimates from the Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach (CASA) terrestrial carbon cycle model. We find that the daily cycle is prominent in these hourly autocorrelations and that these autocorrelations persist across years. We propose a family of functions to model these temporal correlations in atmospheric inversions, and use cross validation to determine which of the correlation functions best fits autocorrelation data from towers not in the training set. Correlation functions with a component that attempts to model the daily cycle in the differences match correlations from other towers better than those without. Those models that reproduce the same correlation structures at 1‐year intervals while modulating the amplitudes of the correlations between those intervals improve the fit still further.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of BOSS galaxy data with weighted skew-spectra

We present the first application of the weighted skew-spectra to analyze non-Gaussian information in galaxy survey data. Using the tree-level galaxy skew-spectra together with the one-loop power spectrum multipoles, we analyze the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS)-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) galaxy clustering data, and target our search towards the equilateral bispectrum shape of primordial non-Gaussianity. We use the Effective Field Theory model for the galaxy power spectrum and bispectrum, and account for systematic effects, such as the survey geometry. From our likelihood analysis, we find f NL equil = -34 +296 -334 at 68% CL, consistent with previous works, while systematic errors from our treatment of the survey geometry lead to an unreliable estimation of f NL ortho . As a result, we further constrain the bias and counterterm parameters, while keeping the cosmology fixed to Planck 2018 values. As a check, we also validate our analysis pipeline using theNseries simulation suite.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗