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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Moisture Recycling through Pumping by Mesoscale Convective Systems

Abstract Moisture recycling, the contribution of local evapotranspiration (ET) to precipitation, has been studied using bulk models assuming a well-mixed atmosphere. The latter is inconsistent with a climatologically stratified atmosphere that slants across latitudes. Reconciling the two views requires an understanding of overturning associated with different weather systems. In this study, we aim to better understand moisture recycling associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Using a convection-permitting WRF simulation equipped with water vapor tracers (WRF-WVT), we tag moisture from terrestrial ET in the U.S. Southern Great Plains during May 2015, when more than 20 MCS events occurred and produced significant precipitation and flooding. Water budget analysis reveals that approximately 76% of terrestrial ET is advected away from the region while the remaining 24% of terrestrial ET is “pumped” upward within the region, accounting for 12% of precipitation. Moisture recycling peaks during early night hours (1800–2400 LT) due to the mixing of the daytime accumulated ET by active convection. By focusing on five “diurnally driven” MCSs with less large-scale circulation influence than other MCSs during the same period, we find an upright pumping of terrestrial ET at the MCS initiation and development stages, which diverges into two branches during the MCS mature and decaying stages. One branch in the upper level advects the ET-sourced moisture downstream, while the other branch in the mid-to-upper level contributes to the trailing precipitation upstream. Overall, our analysis depicts a pumping mechanism associated with MCSs that mixes local ET vertically, highlighting its specific contributions to enhancing convective precipitation processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Updraft dynamics and microphysics: on the added value of the cumulus thermal reference frame in simulations of aerosol–deep convection interactions

One fundamental question about atmospheric moist convection processes that remains debated is whether, or under which conditions, a relevant variability in background aerosol concentrations may have a significant dynamical impact on convective clouds and their associated precipitation. Furthermore, current climate models must parameterize both the microphysical and the cumulus convection processes, but this is usually implemented separately, whereas in nature there is a strong coupling between them. As a first step to improve our understanding of these two problems, we investigate how aerosol concentrations modify key properties of updrafts in eight large-eddy-permitting regional simulations of a case study of scattered convection over Houston, Texas, in which convection is explicitly simulated and microphysical processes are parameterized. Dynamical and liquid-phase microphysical responses are investigated using the following two different reference frames: static cloudy updraft grid cells versus tracked cumulus thermals. In both frameworks, we observe the expected microphysical responses to higher aerosol concentrations, such as higher cloud number concentrations and lower rain number concentrations. In terms of the dynamical responses, both frameworks indicate weak impacts of varying aerosol concentrations relative to the noise between simulations over the observationally derived range of aerosol variability for this case study. On the other hand, results suggest that thermals are more selective than cloudy updraft grid cells in terms of sampling the most active convective air masses. For instance, vertical velocity from thermals is significantly higher at upper levels than when sampled from cloudy updraft grid points, and several microphysical variables have higher average values in the cumulus thermal framework than in the cloudy updraft framework. In addition, the thermal analysis is seen to add rich quantitative information about the rates and covariability of microphysical processes spatially and throughout tracked thermal lifecycles, which can serve as a stronger foundation for improving subgrid-scale parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Updraft Dynamics and Microphysics: On the Added Value of The Cumulus Thermal Reference Frame in Simulations of Aerosol–Deep Convection Interactions

One fundamental question about atmospheric moist convection processes that remains debated is whether, or under which conditions, a relevant variability in background aerosol concentrations may have a significant dynamical impact on convective clouds and their associated precipitation. Furthermore, current climate models must parameterize both the microphysical and the cumulus convection processes, but this is usually implemented separately, whereas in nature there is a strong coupling between them. As a first step to improve our understanding of these two problems, we investigate how aerosol concentrations modify key properties of updrafts in eight large-eddy-permitting regional simulations of a case study of scattered convection over Houston, Texas, in which convection is explicitly simulated and microphysical processes are parameterized. Dynamical and liquid-phase microphysical responses are investigated using the following two different reference frames: static cloudy updraft grid cells versus tracked cumulus thermals. In both frameworks, we observe the expected microphysical responses to higher aerosol concentrations, such as higher cloud number concentrations and lower rain number concentrations. In terms of the dynamical responses, both frameworks indicate weak impacts of varying aerosol concentrations relative to the noise between simulations over the observationally derived range of aerosol variability for this case study. On the other hand, results suggest that thermals are more selective than cloudy updraft grid cells in terms of sampling the most active convective air masses. For instance, vertical velocity from thermals is significantly higher at upper levels than when sampled from cloudy updraft grid points, and several microphysical variables have higher average values in the cumulus thermal framework than in the cloudy updraft framework. In addition, the thermal analysis is seen to add rich quantitative information about the rates and covariability of microphysical processes spatially and throughout tracked thermal lifecycles, which can serve as a stronger foundation for improving subgrid-scale parameterizations.

aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2022

Updraft Dynamics and Microphysics: On the Added Value of the Cumulus Thermal Reference Frame in Simulations of Aerosol–Deep Convection Interactions

One fundamental question about atmospheric moist convection processes that remains debated is whether or under what conditions a relevant variability in background aerosol concentrations may have a significant dynamical impact on convective clouds and their associated precipitation. Furthermore, current climate models must parameterize both the microphysical and the cumulus convection processes, but this is usually implemented separately, whereas in nature there is a strong coupling between them. As a first step to improve our understanding of these two problems, we investigate how aerosol concentrations modify key properties of updrafts in eight large-eddy permitting regional simulations of a case study of scattered convection over Houston, Texas, in which convection is explicitly simulated and microphysical processes are parameterized. Dynamical and liquid-phase microphysical responses are investigated using two different reference frames: static cloudy-updraft grid cells versus tracked cumulus thermals. In both frameworks we observe the expected microphysical responses to higher aerosol concentrations, such as higher cloud number concentrations and lower rain number concentrations. In terms of the dynamical responses, both frameworks indicate weak impacts of varying aerosol concentrations relative to the noise between simulations over the observationally derived range of aerosol variability for this case study. On the other hand, results suggest that thermals are more selective than cloudy-updraft grid cells in terms of sampling the most active convective air masses. For instance, vertical velocity from thermals is significantly higher at upper levels than when sampled from cloudy-updraft grid points, and several microphysical variables have higher average values in the cumulus thermal framework than in the cloudy-updraft framework. In addition, the thermal analysis is seen to add rich quantitative information about the rates and covariability of microphysical processes spatially and throughout tracked thermal lifecycles, which can serve as a stronger foundation for improving subgrid-scale parameterizations.

Daniel Hernandez-Deckers↗
NASA NTRS2000

Diurnal Variability of the Hydrologic Cycle and Radiative Fluxes: Comparisons Between Observation and a GCM

The simulated diurnal cycle is in many ways an ideal test bed for new physical parameterizations. The purpose of this paper is to compare observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Experiment, and the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study with the diurnal variability of the Amazonian hydrologic cycle and radiative energy budget as simulated by the Colorado State University general circulation model, and to evaluate improvements and deficiencies of the model physics. The model uses a prognostic cumulus kinetic energy (CKE) to relax the quasi-equilibrium closure of the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization. A parameter, alpha, is used to relate the CKE to the cumulus mass flux. This parameter is expected to vary with cloud depth, mean shear, and the level of convective activity, but up to now a single constant value for all cloud types has been used. The results of the present study show clearly that this approach cannot yield realistic simulations of both the diurnal cycle and the monthly mean climate state. Improved results are obtained using a version of the model in which alpha is permitted to vary with cloud depth.

Lin, Xin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivities of the West Greenland Current to Greenland Ice Sheet Meltwater in a Mesoscale Ocean/Sea Ice Model

Abstract Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet can alter the continental shelf/slope circulation and cross-shelf freshwater fluxes and limit deep convection in adjacent basins through surface freshening. We explore the impacts on the West Greenland Current and eastern Labrador Sea with different vertical distributions of the meltwater forcing. In this study, we present the results from global coupled ocean/sea ice simulations, forced with atmospheric reanalysis, that are mesoscale eddy-active (∼2–3-km horizontal spacing) and eddy-permitting (∼6–7-km horizontal spacing) in the study region. We compare the West Greenland Current in mesoscale eddy-active and eddy-permitting without meltwater to highlight the role of small-scale features. The mesoscale eddy-active configuration is then used to assess the change in the eastern Labrador Sea when meltwater is added to the surface or vertically distributed to account for mixing within fjords. In both simulations with meltwater, the West Greenland and West Greenland Coastal Currents are faster than in the simulation with no meltwater; their mean surface speeds are the highest in the vertical distribution case. In the latter case, there is enhanced baroclinic conversion at the shelf break compared to the simulation with no meltwater. When meltwater is vertically distributed, there is an increase in baroclinic conversion at the shelf break associated with increased eddy kinetic energy. In addition, in the eastern Labrador Sea, the salinity is lower and the meltwater volume is greater when meltwater is vertically distributed. Therefore, the West Greenland Current is sensitive to how meltwater is added to the ocean with implications for the freshening of the Labrador Sea. Significance Statement Our goal is to understand how the flux of freshwater across the West Greenland continental slope into the Labrador Sea is modified by meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet. We compare the simulations of the ocean that capture key dynamics along the West Greenland continental slope that have no meltwater, meltwater added to the ocean surface, and meltwater distributed vertically to represent the mixing within fjords. When meltwater is added, the currents along the continental slope are faster, with the greatest increase when meltwater is vertically distributed. In that case, there is enhanced freshening of the Labrador Sea because modified density gradients generate more eddies. Proper representation of the vertical structure of meltwater is important for projecting the impact of freshwater on the subpolar North Atlantic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Physics behind Precipitation Onset Bias in CMIP6 Models: The Pseudo-Entrainment Diagnostic and Trade-Offs between Lapse Rate and Humidity

Conditional instability and the buoyancy of plumes drive moist convection but have a variety of representations in model convective schemes. Vertical thermodynamic structure information from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites and reanalysis (ERA5), satellite-derived precipitation (TRMM3b42), and diagnostics relevant for plume buoyancy are used to assess climate models. Previous work has shown that CMIP6 models represent moist convective processes more accurately than their CMIP5 counterparts. However, certain biases in convective onset remain pervasive among generations of CMIP modeling efforts. Here we diagnose these biases in a cohort of nine CMIP6 models with sub-daily output, assessing conditional instability in profiles of equivalent potential temperature θ e and saturation equivalent potential temperature θ es in comparison to a plume model with different mixing assumptions. Most models capture qualitative aspects of the θ es vertical structure, including a substantial decrease with height in the lower free troposphere associated with the entrainment of subsaturated air. We define a “pseudo-entrainment” diagnostic that combines subsaturation and a θ es measure of conditional instability similar to what entrainment would produce under the small-buoyancy approximation. This captures the trade-off between larger θ es lapse rates (entrainment of dry air) and small subsaturation (permits positive buoyancy despite high entrainment). This pseudo-entrainment diagnostic is also a reasonable indicator of the critical value of integrated buoyancy for precipitation onset. Models with poor θ e /θ es structure (those using variants of the Tiedtke Scheme) or low entrainment runs of CAM5, and models with low subsaturation, such as NASA-GISS, lie outside the observational range in this diagnostic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

A perturbation approach to cosmic ray transients in interplanetary space

A perturbation approach is used to model the linear response of the cosmic ray distribution as a function of perturbations in the solar wind transport parameters. The analytical technique permits examination of the effects of the different solar wind parameters, i.e., velocity, drift velocity and the diffusion tensor, which are additive. Cosmic ray changes in the solar wind are neglected. Variations in the diffusion coefficient and the convection-diffusion equation are applied to describing Forbush decreases and the 11-yr solar cycle variations. The treatment is limited to energies above 100 MeV, yet is considered valid enough to have identified a hysteresis effect in the 11-yr variation, wherein high-energy particles lead low-energy particles to a magnitude that increases with increasing heliocentric distance within the inner heliosphere. The calculations also indicate that the Forbush decreases are a cumulative effect of precipitous precursors accompanied by slow recoveries from travelling solar wind perturbations.

Chih, P. P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intercomparison of Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Climate Change Projections over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

Downscaling of global climate model (GCMs) simulations is a key element of regional-to-local-scale climate change projections that can inform impact assessments, long-term planning, and resource management in different sectors. Here, we conduct an intercomparison between statistically and dynamically downscaled GCMs simulations using the hybrid delta (HD) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model, respectively, over the Midwest and Great Lakes region to 1) validate their performance in reproducing extreme daily precipitation (P) and daily maximum temperature (T max ) for summer and winter and 2) evaluate projections of extremes in the future. Our results show the HD statistical downscaling approach, which includes large-scale bias correction of GCM inputs, can reproduce observed extreme P and T max reasonably well for both summer and winter. However, raw historical WRF simulations show significant bias in both extreme P and T max for both seasons. Interestingly, the convection-permitting WRF simulation at 4-km grid spacing does not produce better results for seasonal extremes than the WRF simulation at 12 km using a parameterized convection scheme. Despite a broad similarity for winter extreme P projections, the projected changes in the future summer storms are quite different between downscaling methods; WRF simulations show substantial increases in summer extreme precipitation, while the changes projected by the HD approach exhibit moderate decreases overall. The WRF simulations at 4 km also show a pronounced decoupling effect between seasonal totals and extreme daily P for summer, which suggests that there could be more intense summer extremes at two different time scales, with more severe individual convective storms combined with longer summer droughts at the end of the twenty-first century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

Interaction of upstream flow distortions with high Mach number cascades

Features of the interaction of flow distortions, such as gusts and wakes with blade rows of advance type fans and compressors having high tip Mach numbers are modeled. A typical disturbance was assumed to have harmonic time dependence and was described, at a far upstream location, in three orthogonal spatial coordinates by a double Fourier series. It was convected at supersonic relative to a linear cascade described as an unrolled annulus. Conditions were selected so that the component of this velocity parallel to the axis of the turbomachine was subsonic, permitting interaction between blades through the upstream as well as downstream flow media. A strong, nearly normal shock was considered in the blade passages which was allowed curvature and displacement. The flows before and after the shock were linearized relative to uniform mean velocities in their respective regions. Solution of the descriptive equations was by adaption of the Wiener-Hopf technique, enabling a determination of distortion patterns through and downstream of the cascade as well as pressure distributions on the blade and surfaces. Details of interaction of the disturbance with the in-passage shock were discussed. Infuences of amplitude, wave length, and phase of the disturbance on lifts and moments of cascade configurations are presented. Numerical results are clarified by reference to an especially orderly pattern of upstream vertical motion in relation to the cascade parameters.

Englert, G. W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mesoscale convective systems in the third pole region: Characteristics, mechanisms and impact on precipitation

The climate system of the Third Pole region, including the (TP) and its surroundings, is highly sensitive to global warming. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are understood to be a vital component of this climate system. Driven by the monsoon circulation, surface heating, and large-scale and local moisture supply, they frequently occur during summer and mostly over the central and eastern TP as well as in the downstream regions. Further, MCSs have been highlighted as important contributors to total precipitation as they are efficient rain producers affecting water availability (seasonal precipitation) and potential flood risk (extreme precipitation) in the densely populated downstream regions. The availability of multi-decadal satellite observations and high-resolution climate model datasets has made it possible to study the role of MCSs in the under-observed TP water balance. However, the usage of different methods for MCS identification and the different focuses on specific subregions currently hamper a systematic and consistent assessment of the role played by MCSs and their impact on precipitation over the TP headwaters and its downstream regions. Here, we review observational and model studies of MCSs in the TP region within a common framework to elucidate their main characteristics, underlying mechanisms, and impact on seasonal and extreme precipitation. We also identify major knowledge gaps and provide suggestions on how these can be addressed using recently published high-resolution model datasets. Three important identified knowledge gaps are 1) the feedback of MCSs to other components of the TP climate system, 2) the impact of the changing climate on future MCS characteristics, and 3) the basin-scale assessment of flood and drought risks associated with changes in MCS frequency and intensity. A particularly promising tool to address these knowledge gaps are convection-permitting climate simulations. Therefore, the systematic evaluation of existing historical convection-permitting climate simulations over the TP is an urgent requirement for reliable future climate change assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1961

Subsonic Longitudinal Aerodynamic Characteristics of Disks with Elliptic Cross Sections and Thickness-Diameter Ratios from 0.225 to 0.425

General interest in manned space flight has provided a stimulus for the investigation of shapes which appear to be attractive for application to re-entry vehicles. Such vehicles can be classed as either nonlifting or lifting. Nonlifting types, such as used in Project Mercury, have certain advantages which include structural simplicity, no requirement for an elaborate flight-control system, ease of mating with the booster, and short exposure times to high heating rates during entry. Advantages of lifting types, by comparison, include lower peak heating rates and decelerations, the possibility for a conventional horizontal landing, and the ability to maneuver, thus providing control over longitudinal and lateral range and a wider entry corridor on return from planetary or lunar missions. A lifting shape which appears attractive in terms of the considerations is a thick disk. At high attitudes, the weight to drag ratio is low and the radius of curvature of the surface exposed to the airstream is large, a combination of parameters which results in reduced convective heating rates. The low-speed lift-drag ratios associated with this type of shape appear sufficiently high to permit a conventional horizontal landing. The investigation reported herein was undertaken to assess the effects of thickness on the aerodynamic characteristics of disk shapes suitable for lifting re-entry into the earth's atmosphere and potentially capable of conventional horizontal landing. The models had elliptic cross sections which varied in thickness from 0.225 to 0.425 diameter. The tests were conducted in the Ames 12-Foot Pressure Wind Tunnel over a Mach number range from 0.25 to 0.90 at a Reynolds number of 3.3x10 (exp 6) and at Reynolds numbers to 16x10 (exp 6) at a Mach number of 0.25. Tests on similar shapes have been conducted at subsonic, transonic, and supersonic speeds and the results have been presented.

Demele, Fred A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is carrying the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with 1" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of 1.5 Terabytes per day from SAO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." Our presentation will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO/HMI.

Schuck, Peter W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

The imminent launch of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will carry the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with I" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of ~1.5 Terabytes per day from SDO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." This talk will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO /HMI.

Schuck, Peter W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Observing System Simulations for the AOS Mission

The Earth System Observatory (ESO) is NASA’s response to the recommendations of the 2017 Earth Sciences Decadal Survey conducted by the US National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. The ESO is being conceived as a set of fully integrated missions addressing 4 main Earth science focus areas including aerosols, clouds, convection and precipitation (jointly re-ferred to as AOS, the Atmosphere Observing System). ESO ground breaking observations will provide critical measurements to address societally relevant problems in climate change, natural hazard mitiga-tion, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. A critical element of the AOS observing strategy is to make extensive use of new passive and active sen-sors as well as of the so-called Program-of-Record (PoR), complemented by a fully integrated sub-orbital component. In order to achieve maximum benefit, all these observations need to be integrated into comprehensive observing and modeling/data assimilation systems. Such an approach requires compre-hensive model-data synthesis capabilities that needs to be conceived in conjunction with the space-based and suborbital components of AOS. In this presentation we will summarize the major science goals of AOS including cloud feedbacks, at-mospheric convection, emphasizing aerosol processes and aerosol radiative effects, and the synergistic aspects of clouds-precipitation-aerosol interactions. We will describe examples of the observing system simulation capabilities being developed for AOS, including global storm resolving nature runs, detailed instrument and retrieval simulators, as well as fast retrieval emulators for instrumenting climate models. This simulation environment, being developed under NASA’s open-source science initiative, will permit us to explore how AOS data will be used across space and time to better initialize forecasts and train modeling systems, and to infuse models and data assimilation systems with AOS data, well before launch.

Arlindo da Silva↗
NASA NTRS1982

Properties of dust in the Martian atmosphere and its effect on temperature structure

Data from the Viking lander imaging experiment and the IRIS experiment on board the Mariner 9 Orbiter are used to develop a one-dimensional radiative-convective model to describe the Mars temperature profile. Photography was employed to determine the optical depth, mean size, shape, visible absorption coefficient, and vertical distribution of aerosols in the Mars atmosphere. The calculation procedures are outlined, particularly for the particle size distribution function, which indicated a cross-sectional average particle radius of 2.5 microns. Dust-free conditions in the atmosphere near the equator and at lower altitudes permit full surface absorption of sunlight and subsequent adiabatic lapse rates. Difficulties were encountered in accurately modeling temperature profiles to fit Viking lander data, and resultant variations are attributed to effects of both suspended dust particles and large scale circulation.

Pollack, J. B.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Differences in Lightning—Storm Microphysical Relationships in Subtropical South America Versus the Continental U.S. and Their Impact on Model Lightning Parameterizations

Satellite studies have shown that some of the deepest convection with high lightning flash rates occurs downstream of the Andes in subtropical South America (SSA). Using high resolution ground‐based observations in SSA, we explore the relationship between lightning and radar‐inferred storm microphysics. Results show these storms have significantly larger 35‐dBZ volumes and more graupel per lightning flash compared to storms in the U.S. We then test microphysics‐based lightning parameterizations for storms in SSA on a 1‐km convection‐permitting simulation of a mesoscale convective system. Results from the simulation match well with observed flash rates. If parameterizations based on U.S. storms had been applied, flash rates would have been overestimated by a factor of eight. These results suggest that storms in SSA are fundamentally different compared to storms in the U.S., and caution should be exercised when applying microphysics‐based lightning parameterizations in different regions of the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?

Abstract. A 15-member ensemble of convection-permitting regional simulations of the fast-moving and destructive derecho of 29–30 June 2012 that impacted the northeastern urban corridor of the USA is presented. This event generated 1100 reports of damaging winds, generated significant wind gusts over an extensive area of up to 500 000 km2, caused several fatalities, and resulted in widespread loss of electrical power. Extreme events such as this are increasingly being used within pseudo-global-warming experiments to examine the sensitivity of historical, societally important events to global climate non-stationarity and how they may evolve as a result of changing thermodynamic and dynamic contexts. As such it is important to examine the fidelity with which such events are described in hindcast experiments. The regional simulations presented herein are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The resulting ensemble is used to explore simulation fidelity relative to observations for wind gust magnitudes, spatial scales of convection (as is manifest in high composite reflectivity, cREF), and both rainfall and hail production as a function of model configuration (microphysics parameterization, lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), start date, use of nudging, compiler choice, damping, and number of vertical levels). We also examine the degree to which each ensemble member differs with respect to key mesoscale drivers of convective systems (e.g., convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear) and critical manifestations of deep convection, e.g., vertical velocities, cold-pool generation, and how those properties relate to the correct characterization of the associated atmospheric hazards (wind gusts and hail). Use of a double-moment, seven-class scheme with number concentrations for all species (including hail and graupel) results in the greatest fidelity of model-simulated wind gusts and convective structure to the observations of this event. All ensemble members, however, fail to capture the intensity of the event in terms of the spatial extent of convection and the production of high near-surface wind gusts. We further show very high sensitivity to the LBCs employed and specifically that simulation fidelity is higher for simulations nested within ERA-Interim compared to ERA5. Excess convective available potential energy (CAPE) in all ensemble members after the derecho passage leads to excess production of convective cells, wind gusts, cREF > 40 dBZ, and precipitation during a frontal passage on the subsequent day. This event proved very challenging to forecast in real time and to reproduce in the 15-member hindcast simulation ensemble presented here. Future work could examine if simulations with other initial and lateral boundary conditions can achieve greater fidelity.

Shepherd, Tristan (ORCID:0000000186276419)↗