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DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗

NASA NTRS2011

Molecular Dynamics Simulation of the Antiamoebin Ion Channel: Linking Structure and Conductance

Molecular dynamics simulations were carried out in order to ascertain which of the potential multimeric forms of the transmembrane peptaibol channel, antiamoebin, is consistant with its measured conductance. Estimates of the conductance obtained through counting ions that cross the channel and by solving the Nernst-Planck equation yield consistent results, indicating that the motion of ions inside the channel can be satisfactorily described as diffusive.The calculated conductance of octameric channels is markedly higher than the conductance measured in single channel recordings, whereas the tetramer appears to be non-conducting. The conductance of the hexamer was estimated to be 115+/-34 pS and 74+/-20 pS, at 150 mV and 75 mV, respectively, in satisfactory agreement with the value of 90 pS measured at 75 mV. On this basis we propose that the antiamoebin channel consists of six monomers. Its pore is large enough to accommodate K(+) and Cl(-) with their first solvation shells intact. The free energy barrier encountered by K(+) is only 2.2 kcal/mol whereas Cl(-) encounters a substantially higher barrier of nearly 5 kcal/mol. This difference makes the channel selective for cations. Ion crossing events are shown to be uncorrelated and follow Poisson statistics. keywords: ion channels, peptaibols, channel conductance, molecular dynamics

Wilson, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Calculating Conductance of Ion Channels

We have simulated two small ion channels in a water/membrane system, which consists of 71,000-72,000 atoms, and have estimated the conductance by way of counting ions crossing these channels in applied field. The calculated values of conductance have been compared with predictions of the electrodiffusion model. In a recently developed theoretical framework, all commonly used assumptions of the model can be tested. If they are satisfied, which is often the case, the approach provides a rigorous way to extrapolate conductance calculated at one voltage to other voltages. This, in turn, allows for efficient estimations of current-voltage dependence, examining rectifying behavior of channels and calculating the reversal potential. Furthermore, the consistency of the results can be precisely tested. Simulations at microsecond time scales are required to sufficiently reduce statistical errors and separate them from possible systematic errors. Only then the accuracy of the proposed approach can be properly tested. Linking simulations with electrophysiology provides a stringent, highly relevant test for the correctness of computer simulations of ion channels. Considering biological, medical and pharmaceutical importance of these proteins, results of the proposed study might motivate the development of improved hardware and software that would enable applying a similar strategy to more complex channels at longer times.

Ion↗

NASA NTRS2005

Radiation Dosimetry via Automated Fluorescence Microscopy

A developmental instrument for assessment of radiation-induced damage in human lymphocytes includes an automated fluorescence microscope equipped with a one or more chargecoupled- device (CCD) video camera(s) and circuitry to digitize the video output. The microscope is also equipped with a three-axis translation stage that includes a rotation stage, and a rotary tray that holds as many as thirty specimen slides. The figure depicts one version of the instrument. Once the slides have been prepared and loaded into the tray, the instrument can operate unattended. A computer controls the operation of the stage, tray, and microscope, and processes the digital fluorescence-image data to recognize and count chromosomes that have been broken, presumably by radiation. The design and method of operation of the instrument exploit fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) of metaphase chromosome spreads, which is a technique that has been found to be valuable for monitoring the radiation dose to circulating lymphocytes. In the specific FISH protocol used to prepare specimens for this instrument, metaphase lymphocyte cultures are chosen for high mitotic index and highly condensed chromosomes, then several of the largest chromosomes are labeled with three of four differently colored whole-chromosome-staining dyes. The three dyes, which are used both individually and in various combinations, are fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC), Texas Red (or equivalent), and Cy5 (or equivalent); The fourth dye 4',6-diamidino- 2-phenylindole (DAPI) is used as a counterstain. Under control by the computer, the microscope is automatically focused on the cells and each slide is scanned while the computer analyzes the DAPI-fluorescence images to find the metaphases. Each metaphase field is recentered in the field of view and refocused. Then a four-color image (more precisely, a set of images of the same view in the fluorescent colors of the four dyes) is acquired. By use of pattern-recognition software developed specifically for this instrument, the images in the various colors are processed to recognize the metaphases and count the chromosome fragments of each color within the metaphases. The intermediate results are then further processed to estimate the proportion of cells that have suffered genetic damage. The prototype instrument scans at an average areal rate of 4.7 mm2/h in unattended operation, finding about 14 metaphases per hour. The false-alarm rate is typically less than 3 percent, and the metaphase-miss rate has been estimated to be less than 5 percent. The counts of chromosomes and fragments thereof are 50 to 70 percent accurate.

Castleman, Kenneth R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Frequency-Modulated, Continuous-Wave Laser Ranging Using Photon-Counting Detectors

Optical ranging is a problem of estimating the round-trip flight time of a phase- or amplitude-modulated optical beam that reflects off of a target. Frequency- modulated, continuous-wave (FMCW) ranging systems obtain this estimate by performing an interferometric measurement between a local frequency- modulated laser beam and a delayed copy returning from the target. The range estimate is formed by mixing the target-return field with the local reference field on a beamsplitter and detecting the resultant beat modulation. In conventional FMCW ranging, the source modulation is linear in instantaneous frequency, the reference-arm field has many more photons than the target-return field, and the time-of-flight estimate is generated by balanced difference- detection of the beamsplitter output, followed by a frequency-domain peak search. This work focused on determining the maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation algorithm when continuous-time photoncounting detectors are used. It is founded on a rigorous statistical characterization of the (random) photoelectron emission times as a function of the incident optical field, including the deleterious effects caused by dark current and dead time. These statistics enable derivation of the Cramér-Rao lower bound (CRB) on the accuracy of FMCW ranging, and derivation of the ML estimator, whose performance approaches this bound at high photon flux. The estimation algorithm was developed, and its optimality properties were shown in simulation. Experimental data show that it performs better than the conventional estimation algorithms used. The demonstrated improvement is a factor of 1.414 over frequency-domainbased estimation. If the target interrogating photons and the local reference field photons are costed equally, the optimal allocation of photons between these two arms is to have them equally distributed. This is different than the state of the art, in which the local field is stronger than the target return. The optimal processing of the photocurrent processes at the outputs of the two detectors is to perform log-matched filtering followed by a summation and peak detection. This implies that neither difference detection, nor Fourier-domain peak detection, which are the staples of the state-of-the-art systems, is optimal when a weak local oscillator is employed.

Erkmen, Baris I.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Analysis of Texture Using the Fractal Model

Properties such as the fractal dimension (FD) can be used for feature extraction and classification of regions within an image. The FD measures the degree of roughness of a surface, so this number is used to characterize a particular region, in order to differentiate it from another. There are two basic approaches discussed in the literature to measure FD: the blanket method, and the box counting method. Both attempt to measure FD by estimating the change in surface area with respect to the change in resolution. We tested both methods but box counting resulted computationally faster and gave better results. Differential Box Counting (DBC) was used to segment a collage containing three textures. The FD is independent of directionality and brightness so five features were used derived from the original image to account for directionality and gray level biases. FD can not be measured on a point, so we use a window that slides across the image giving values of FD to the pixel on the center of the window. Windowing blurs the boundaries of adjacent classes, so an edge-preserving, feature-smoothing algorithm is used to improve classification within segments and to make the boundaries sharper. Segmentation using DBC was 90.8910 accurate.

Navas, William↗

NASA NTRS2011

Assessment of Gravity Wave Momentum Flux Measurement Capabilities by Meteor Radars Having Different Transmitter Power and Antenna Configurations

Measurement capabilities of five meteor radars are assessed and compared to determine how well radars having different transmitted power and antenna configurations perform in defining mean winds, tidal amplitudes, and gravity wave (GW) momentum fluxes. The five radars include two new-generation meteor radars on Tierra del Fuego, Argentina (53.8 deg S) and on King George Island in the Antarctic (62.1 deg S) and conventional meteor radars at Socorro, New Mexico (34.1 deg N, 106.9 deg W), Bear Lake Observatory, Utah (approx 41.9 deg N, 111.4 deg W), and Yellowknife, Canada (62.5 deg N, 114.3 deg W). Our assessment employs observed meteor distributions for June of 2009, 2010, or 2011 for each radar and a set of seven test motion fields including various superpositions of mean winds, constant diurnal tides, constant and variable semidiurnal tides, and superposed GWs having various amplitudes, scales, periods, directions of propagation, momentum fluxes, and intermittencies. Radars having higher power and/or antenna patterns yielding higher meteor counts at small zenith angles perform well in defining monthly and daily mean winds, tidal amplitudes, and GW momentum fluxes, though with expected larger uncertainties in the daily estimates. Conventional radars having lower power and a single transmitting antenna are able to describe monthly mean winds and tidal amplitudes reasonably well, especially at altitudes having the highest meteor counts. They also provide qualitative estimates of GW momentum fluxes at the altitudes having the highest meteor counts; however, these estimates are subject to uncertainties of approx 20 to 50% and uncertainties rapidly become excessive at higher and lower altitudes. Estimates of all quantities degrade somewhat for more complex motion fields.

Fritts, D. C.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code

The MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) code is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) tool used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. This report describes the modeling framework, implementation, verification, and benchmarking of a GDP-based model for economic losses that has recently been developed as an alternative to the original cost-based economic loss model in MACCS. The GDP-based model has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS and is now called the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM). It is based on input-output theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is designed to be used to estimate impacts for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct. Both the original and the RDEIM economic loss models account for costs from evacuation and relocation, decontamination, depreciation, and condemnation. Where the original model accounts for an expected rate of return, based on the value of property, that is lost during interdiction, the RDEIM model instead accounts for losses of GDP based on the industrial sectors located within a county. The original model includes costs for disposal of crops and milk that the RDEIM model currently does not, but these costs tend to contribute insignificantly to the overall losses. This document discusses three verification exercises to demonstrate that the RDEIM model is implemented correctly in MACCS. It also describes a benchmark study at five nuclear power plants chosen to represent the spectrum of U.S. commercial sites. The benchmarks provide perspective on the expected differences between the RDEIM and the original cost-based economic loss models. The RDEIM model is shown to consistently predict larger losses than the original model, probably in part because it accounts for national losses by including indirect and induced losses; whereas, the original model only accounts for regional losses. Nonetheless, the RDEIM model predicts losses that are remarkably consistent with the original cost-based model, differing by 16% at most for the five sites combined with three source terms considered in this benchmark.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1974

Utility of ERTS for monitoring the breeding habit of migratory waterfowl

Waterfowl breeding-ground surveys conducted each year by the Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife extend over a vast region of the United States and Canada. Data from these surveys are used to estimate waterfowl production by means of a mathematical model. Counts of May and July ponds are some the variables used in this model. Annual production estimates are used to predict fall flights of ducks. This information is then used for establishing waterfowl hunting regulations. Work to date indicates that satellite remote sensing techniques hold considerable promise for the accurate and rapid assessment of waterfowl breeding habitat, especially changes in pond numbers and distribution. Development of an operational system utilizing satellite sensors as a primary source of data appears to be a realistic goal for the future.

Work, E. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Phase space distribution of halo particles and detection of WIMPS

We calculate the velocity distribution of halo particles using realistic models for the density profiles of the Galactic disk, spheroid, and halo components. We get the resulting velocity distribution, which is different from the Maxwellian distribution of isothermal halo. We investigate the consequences concerning the time averaged count rate and the amplitude of the annual modulation in WIMPS detection experiments. Compared to the previous estimate based on the Maxwellian distribution, the time averaged count rate is up to 40 percent larger. On the other hand, the amplitude of the annual modulation is up to a factor of two larger.

Ryu, Dongsu↗

DOE OSTI2023

TRINIDI: Time-of-Flight Resonance Imaging With Neutrons for Isotopic Density Inference

Accurate reconstruction of 2D and 3D isotope densities is a desired capability with great potential impact in applications such as evaluation and development of next-generation nuclear fuels. Neutron time-of-flight (TOF) resonance imaging offers a potential approach by exploiting the characteristic neutron absorption spectra of each isotope. However, it is a major challenge to compute quantitatively accurate images due to a variety of confounding effects such as severe Poisson noise, background scatter, beam non-uniformity, absorption non-linearity, and extended source pulse duration. We present the TRINIDI algorithm which is based on a two-step process in which we first estimate the neutron flux and background counts, and then reconstruct the areal densities of each isotope and pixel. Both components are based on the inversion of a forward model that accounts for the highly non-linear absorption, energy-dependent emission profile, and Poisson noise, while also modeling the substantial spatio-temporal variation of the background and flux. Further, to do this, we formulate the non-linear inverse problem as two optimization problems that are solved in sequence. We demonstrate on both synthetic and measured data that TRINIDI can reconstruct quantitatively accurate 2D views of isotopic areal density that can then be reconstructed into quantitatively accurate 3D volumes of isotopic volumetric density.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid interferometric diagnostic for the refractive index measurement across nearly discrete shock waves

The measurement of high temperature gas properties is key for characterizing high speed flows. Nearly discrete changes in density across shock waves, in particular, are difficult to resolve through traditional fringe-counting interferometric methods. Existing techniques for estimating large fringe jumps are either resolution limited or require specialized window configurations. In this Letter, we describe a unique hybrid interferometric technique that combines narrowband fringes for high resolution and broadband fringes as an absolute reference to measure changes in refractive index with a resolution of up to 7 × 10 −8 across nearly discrete index changes of up to 1.5 × 10 −4 . By capturing fringes with an ultrahigh-speed camera, the refractive index changes across discrete shock fronts can be estimated inside a shock tube with high accuracy and time resolution. First, a novel hybrid calibration method for tracking finite fringes is discussed. Next, this technique is used to measure the post-initial-shock refractive indices for Mach 2.7 to 4.2 flows (pressures from 90.4 to 228.4 kPa). Results are then compared with theoretical values showing agreement within 2%.

Wang, Gwendolyn T. (ORCID:000000016271893X)↗

NASA NTRS1973

Application of signal detection theory to optics

Basic quantum detection and estimation theory, applications to optics, photon counting, and filtering theory are studied. Recent work on the restoration of degraded optical images received at photoelectrically emissive surfaces is also reported, the data used by the method are the numbers of electrons ejected from various parts of the surface.

Helstrom, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Development of a multiplexed bypass control system for aerospace batteries

A breadboard bypass control system was developed to control a battery comprised of 26 JPL-developed negative limited Ni-Cd cells. The system was designed to automatically remove cells from the circuit when their voltages exceeded a fixed limit on charge and fell below a fixed limit on discharge. Major components of the system consisted of a cell voltage monitor, a multiplexing circuit, and individual electromechanical relays for each cell. The system was found to function well in controlling the battery during a simulated 10-month MM-71 mission and a 2-month simulated low earth orbit cycling mission. A flight version of the bypass system was estimated to have a total parts count of 150 and total weight of 1.63 kg. When fully developed, the system shows promise for improving life and reliability of spacecraft batteries.

Frank, H. A.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Numerical trials of HISSE

The mathematical description and implementation of the statistical estimation procedure known as the Houston integrated spatial/spectral estimator (HISSE) is discussed. HISSE is based on a normal mixture model and is designed to take advantage of spectral and spatial information of LANDSAT data pixels, utilizing the initial classification and clustering information provided by the AMOEBA algorithm. The HISSE calculates parametric estimates of class proportions which reduce the error inherent in estimates derived from typical classify and count procedures common to nonparametric clustering algorithms. It also singles out spatial groupings of pixels which are most suitable for labeling classes. These calculations are designed to aid the analyst/interpreter in labeling patches with a crop class label. Finally, HISSE's initial performance on an actual LANDSAT agricultural ground truth data set is reported.

Peters, C.↗

NASA NTRS1984

LANDSAT 4 band 6 data evaluation

A series of images of a portion of a TM frame of Lake Ontario are presented. The top left frame is the TM Band 6 image, the top right image is a conventional contrast stretched image. The bottom left image is a Band 5 to Band 3 ratio image. This image is used to generate a primitive land cover classificaton. Each land cover (Water, Urban, Forest, Agriculture) is assigned a Band 6 emissivity value. The ratio image is then combined with the Band 6 image and atmospheric propagation data to generate the bottom right image. This image represents a display of data whose digital count can be directly related to estimated surface temperature. The resolution appears higher because the process cell is the size of the TM shortwave pixels.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1994

The Einstein database of IPC x-ray observations of optically selected and radio-selected quasars, 1.

We present the first volume of the Einstein quasar database. The database includes estimates of the X-ray count rates, fluxes, and luminosities for 514 quasars and Seyfert 1 galaxies observed with the Imaging Proportional Counter (IPC) aboard the Einstein Observatory. All were previously known optically selected or radio-selected objects, and most were the targets of the X-ray observations. The X-ray properties of the Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) have been derived by reanalyzing the IPC data in a systematic manner to provide a uniform database for general use by the astronomical community. We use the database to extend earlier quasar luminosity studies which were made using only a subset of the currently available data. The database can be accessed on internet via the SAO Einstein on-line system ('Einline') and is available in ASCII format on magnetic tape and DOS diskette.

Wilkes, Belinda J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Large Binocular Telescope and Sptizer Spectroscopy of Star-forming Galaxies at 1 < z < 3: Extinction and Star Formation Rate Indicators

We present spectroscopic observations in the rest-frame optical and near- to mid-infrared wavelengths of four gravitationally lensed infrared (IR) luminous star-forming galaxies at redshift 1 < z < 3 from the LUCIFER instrument on the Large Binocular Telescope and the Infrared Spectrograph on Spitzer. The sample was selected to represent pure, actively star-forming systems, absent of active galactic nuclei. The large lensing magnifications result in high signal-to-noise spectra that can probe faint IR recombination lines, including Paα and Brα at high redshifts. The sample was augmented by three lensed galaxies with similar suites of unpublished data and observations from the literature, resulting in the final sample of seven galaxies. We use the IR recombination lines in conjunction with Hα observations to probe the extinction, Av, of these systems, as well as testing star formation rate (SFR) indicators against the SFR measured by fitting spectral energy distributions to far-IR photometry. Our galaxies occupy a range of Av from ∼0 to 5.9 mag, larger than previously known for a similar range of IR luminosities at these redshifts. Thus, estimates of SFR even at z ∼ 2 must take careful count of extinction in the most IR luminous galaxies.We also measure extinction by comparing SFR estimates from optical emission lines with those from far- IR measurements. The comparison of results from these two independent methods indicates a large variety of dust distribution scenarios at 1 < z < 3. Without correcting for dust extinction, the Hα SFR indicator underestimates the SFR; the size of the necessary correction depends on the IR luminosity and dust distribution scenario. Individual SFR estimates based on the 6.2μm polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon emission line luminosity do not show a systematic discrepancy with extinction, although a considerable, ∼0.2 dex, scatter is observed.

Rujopakarn, W.↗